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NHK Proportional representation exit polls for Japan's  2025 elections for parliament show twice the number of people in 20's 30's and 40's voted for Sanseito over voted for the LDP. The LDP is the party that has run Japan's government for mostly all of the past 75 post war years. It is losing its touch with the common man as issues of cost of living, migration, and income mobility affect the Japanese people as they have done in Europe and the US. The two opposition parties are the Sanseito and the Democratic Party of the People formed in the last ten years to fight the entrenched LDP governments, and the Constitutional Party of Japan that has acted till now as the main Opposition Party. Not just LDP, the Constitutional Party of Japan also draws most of its support from the 50's, 60's and 70's people age groups and are being trounced by Sanseito and Democratic Party of the People with younger age groups. This is a significant observation on the direction Japan is taking with resistance to too much tourism, too much migration, and not enough attention to Japan's national interests. The LDP under Ishiba is now navigating a new environment as it looks to running the government taking credit for the US Japan Trade Agreement and working with the new parties. ...

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Indian exports to US drop from $8.8 to $5.5 billion May to September drop of 37%. A trade agreement is likely and should be similar to Japan's or EU where with Japan it is now 15% and with EU it is 10%, both key allies of the US. India is also a key ally in Asia requiring the DJT administration -once it gets over Modi-DJT differences on the nuclear aspect of the India-Pakistan 48 hour conflict in 2025, and India reverts to getting oil and energy from non Russian sources as it did in 2019, and issues of agricultural exports to India- to drop this tariff of additional 25% for Russian oil and drop the basic tariff of 25% to 15% as the US did with Japan. At 15% Japan and India will still be able to compete with China's 47% (dropped from 57%) to export to the US.  The result can be positive for India as it improves it's cost effectiveness to export to the US and EU, with rapid investment to improve logistics, and streamlining import of technologies and machinery to rapidly cut costs of production. ...

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The story is an encouraging one as the president and bipartisan Congressmen persevered with courage and patience to invest in America. The story is told by Biden adviser Gene Sperling in the WSJ today Feb 16, 2024, and is on this page. The US federal Budget deficit rises to 6.1%  in 2025 from 5.6% in 2024, then slows to 5.2% in 2027 and 2028, going back to 6.1% in 2034. Because these projections depend on assumptions inflation, interest rates, wages, which may be different in actual numbers in future years the broad guage one can get is that the extra surge in investment of five tenths or six tenths of a percentage point of GDP help the US make the investments in an aging or crumbling infrastructure and in manufacturing, better technologies, not replaced since the 1950's or 1970's, is needed for economic growth and better living conditions for the American people. It is this investment that in trillions of dollars of spending under president Biden that has generated growth of 3.1% in the last 2 years compared to the recession in Germany, UK, France and otehr European countries. UK is the latest to fall into recession this month. Sluggish growth can also be seen in China with a bloated construction center hindering growth. The US is in abetter position after the pandemic than any other country with the exception of India. ...

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Aldi plans to open 200 stores in the US in 2025- it's low cost model is working as Americans change their buying habits to get the best value from grocery stores. The German discount grocery store chain carries low cost produce and other items straight from the truck to the shelves for super discounted prices without the individual shelf byshelf stocking of larger grocery chains such as Kroger's. Aldi's like the Trader Joe chain stores are smaller and customers say it is hard to build up a large grocery bill when one reaches the cashier counter.

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Mexico's Attorney General under president Enrique Pena Nieto is odered to stand trial by a Mexican judge. The then Attorney General was part of the effort to present "historical truth" version of events in the forced disappearance of 43 students which was rejected by the people. The effort is part of a broader effort to bring the rule of law to Mexico under president Lopez Obrador, including efforts to control illegal money laundering and other illegal use of funds. Nieto was president from 2012 to 2018 when there was a failure in the rule of law in Mexico. This effort also restores dignity to Mexico and Mexicans in the light of the international community. For the US with its large community of people of Mexican origin, and Mexico as its most important southern neighbor, the restoration of the rule of law  brings dignity to people in the region.

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Municipal yields are back up. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities says states in the USA will have to close budget gaps of $140 billion in fiscal year 2012, ending in June, down from $160 billion this year. But real shortfalls will increase because federal stimulus funds that helped state and local governments will fall from $59 billion this year to $6 billion next year. Local governments depend on states for one third of their revenue, according to a Congressional Budget Office report, which makes them vulnerable. Property taxes account for a quarter of local government revenue and this too will be declining with declining assessed values. The Federal Reserve Act limits open-market purchases of munis to ones with maturities of less than 6 months, which reduces the scope for help from the Fed.

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Most questions about the vaccines from Oxford, Pfizer and Moderna are answered in this Q&A in The Times.  The Oxford vaccine is the only vaccine that is being provided at cost to the public at a cost of 4 pounds, Pfizer using German technology at 15 pounds and Moderna from Cambridge, Massachusetts, at 28 pounds. The Oxford vaccine can be stored in a fridge, the others use mRNA technology of messenger RNA which requires ultra low temperature storage. Astra Zeneca could have handled the trials and methodology for results in a better way. As the two trials one that produced results of 62% and the other results of 90% cannot be combined to give results of 70% but are two distinct and separate trials. However too much emphasis has been placed on the vaccine, as other prevention measures remain important for 2021. Other vaccines are being developed in Britain with new technology and in India by ICMR which are in trials stage and about which not enough is known. The Russian and Chinese vaccines have not released detailed data limiting their use around the world. ...

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After half a million visitors overstayed visas to US  in 2023 State Department pilot program puts a bond requirement. Countries with high overstay rates will have visitors to put up bonds of $15,000, and no less than $5000 to deter such misuse of visas and ignoring US law.

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This analysis in The Guardian says US president Biden is reversing 3 decades of policy since president Reagan that looked with skepticism at government intervention in the economy. The $1.9 trillion aid package Biden has pushed through Congress is a big game changer in the way government operates to help rebuild America after the pandemic. The 2009 response by the government under president Obama was done without conviction that the government response was the best way to help the economy. By 2016 voters turned to a Republican, Mr. Trump, to help working class voters with a USA first policy, after decades of presidents from both parties Republican and Democrat failed to protect American interests in manufacturing, jobs and incomes.  US president Biden is continuing Trump's policies to protect working class Americans. And bringing new conviction that government not only has a positive role, but has an essential and vital role to play in protecting workers and households struggling to make ends meet. President Reagan had introduced such a deep skepticism of government, that it took so long for people to remember FDR and the role of government before the second world war and afterwards under the Truman administration.  What changed? The health care crisis exposed the weak areas in the governance and policy mindset in America. China had advanced mainly through strong government role of the Communist Party  in steering the economy and business to gain competitive advantage. The health crisis from the pandemic further devastated America's lower middle and working class following the banking and financial sector mismanagement by 2009. The pharmaceutical and health care sector similar to other sectors had shipped manufacturing overseas. In 2021 there is a deep sense that theories don't work, one has to act based on the needs and the situation the country is facing. The way competitor nations such as China are building new infrastructure, gaining manufacturing advantage, dominating key sectors and industries, and creating jobs, requires America to respond. In this situation posing the threat America faces as well as the social dislocation of decades of misguided policies, the US government is the only one capable and having the resources and capacity to respond.  ...

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Peter Goodman who covers the consequences in the lives of ordinary people of the industrial changes going on around us, gives this report from Michigan. He shows how today's Michigan, was home to Henry Ford's automobile plants that made it a major part of the industrial revolution in the US after 1910, when Ford's first assembly line manufacturing was set up in Highland Park, Detroit. Industrial growth till 1960 made the US the leading industrial nation in the world. Followed by Japanese imports and auto manufacturing shifting to Asia and Mexico, that led to deindustrialization and neglect in Michigan and the midwestern US.  Key aspects of resurgence today is coming from lessons learned in the period of deindustrialization. From labor and management not working together, from huge pension obligations and costs that had to be overcome, that made existing wage and cost structures uncompetitive with Asian manufacturing. Labor concessions in the last decade have made a rearrangement of cost structure possible, yet along with the financial crisis of 2008 further worsened worker incomes. The first steps of a return for Michigan to its role in the early industrialization of America, the new labor contract negotiated in 2023, the support of president Biden and the government, the investment in the new technology of electric car manufacturing by Ford, General Motors and Stellantis. Goodman shows how the state, federal government, community colleges and other educational institutions training workers and students, and car companies are working together to promote interests of workers and communities. There is uncertainty created about the fewer parts in the electric car manufacturing process, automation advances, and fewer jobs. Yet the process is a transition over many years and this is accepted by the Biden administration and by the industry as it responds to slower demand for electric cars in 2024. This provides the time to bring up new training programs for workers, enable the funding of new research into battery technologies that would bring down the cost and make electric car prices accessible to the wider population. Uncertainty and fears about the transition are counteracted by the effort the Biden administration is making to bring up all manufacturing and to make large investments in American manufacturing.   ...

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will lead US negotiating team in US- Japan  talks for Liberation Day Tariffs April 2, 2025 Negotiations.

"Japan remains among America’s closest allies, and I look forward to our upcoming productive engagement regarding tariffs, non-tariff trade barriers, currency issues, and government subsidies.” 

DJT says

"Countries from all over the world are talking to us. Tough but fair parameters are being set. Spoke to the Japanese prime minister this morning. He is sending a top team to negotiate. They have treated US very poorly on trade. The don't take our cars but we take MILLIONS of them. It all has to change but especially with CHINA.

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The climate change bill that passed the House 219 to 212. When the program begins in 2012 the estimated prie of apermit to emit aton of carbon dioxide will be about $13. This is projected to rise steadily as emission limits come down, but there is aprovision to prevent a surge in costs. In the early years of the program amajority of permits will be given out free to keep costs down. The Congressional Budget Office estimate is that an average American household will pay $175 ayear more in energy costs by 2020 as aresult of this bill, while the poorst households will recveive a rebate to lower their energy costs by $40. WHile the bill has been watered down form its original, the fact remains that this is the first climate change bill America has passed in decades. It is welcomed by Chancellor Merkel and the Germans who want to see the USA as akey negotiator in future talk on global warming.

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WSJ's reporters Meichtry, L, Pokharel, and Soon look at the extraordinary rise of Gautam Adani through his efforts to develop reclaimed land at Mundra port in the state of Gujarat. Adani who started with a small family owned plastics maker in Ahmedabad developed Mundra port around 2001 with the help of the Modi administration. Modi saw the electricity shortages in Gujarat as an opportunity to tackle India's chronic electricity shortages. Adani's early development of a deep water port at Mundra offered both Modi and Adani the opportunity to tackle the electricity shortages by bringing coal in large ships to Mundra in the way that China was already doing by 2005 in its own efforts at industrialization. So deeply immersed was India under the Congress Raj of licenses and closed economy that India's established business failed to see what China was doing to break into the ranks of industrialized nations. India's first prime minister Nehru had build a command economy where not much happened without government licenses and approval often riddled unwittingly with corruption. Modi needed someone outside the established companies operating under the Congress Raj command economy and with a vision of an India with abundant electricity to take the risks Chinese companies were taking to build an entirely new economy. By 2005 Guangzhou was importing coal with large ships from Indonesia and Australia. State owned companies moved slowly and would take years to develop the port capacity. Using China's example Modi pushed ahead with Adani on a rapid time delivery making Mundra a Special economic Zone and helping to connect Indian Railways to the port of Mundra for coal deliveries. Adani Enterprises built the thermal power plants near Mundra and build electricity transmission lines on a rapid mission mode giving Gujarat abundant electricity supplies and giving Gujarat state in northwestern India a great leap forward in the way China was already doing right in front of everyone's eyes by 2005 with world class ports built at Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenzen, Hong Kong and logistics connections set with the help of Maersk.  Maersk is now doing the same for modern logistics in India in collaboration with the Modi administration.  Modi and the younger generation of aspirational youth in India see a New India that can break into the ranks of the largest industrialized nations with world class infrastructure in the way China has done, and use new technologies with innovation that will speed up the process in a way that the world has never seen. A quick look at Mundra Port in Wikipedia shows the timeline, It starts in 1998 when Adani Port Ltd was setup and Mundra port work began, 2002 the port integrated with Indian Railways, 2003 when it was made a Special Economic Zone by the Modi government in Gujarat, 2007 when IPO of 40 million shares at price band of around Rs 400 was done.  The Biden administration and the Trump administration support India's efforts to build a new modern economy with a rapid shift to renewable energy. As India is building the ports and logistics with the help of Maersk and other companies in the European Union, president Biden is working with prime minister Modi to build a new supply chain that removes the overconcentration of manufacturing and supply chain logistics in China. This means new ports with the latest technologies in India to handle shipment to the US and the EU. Jake Sullivan set out the goals for president Biden to accomplish this task in meetings with his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval this week on iCERT. President Biden and Republicans, Germany and the EU, see India as a critical part of the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies, and the new supply chain. For the Adani Group the IPO pause offers an opportunity to do what Nirmala Sitharman has done in the Indian Budget this week- build a stable growth path ahead for the long term in line with India's Amrit Kal the next 25 years to centenary of freedom in 2047. Nirmala Sitharaman set a goal of rapid capital spending and investment increasing capital spending in 2023 by 33% in 2023 over 2022, yet maintaining a stable fiscal path by keeping the deficit below 6%. ...

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The protests happened as Immigration agents moved to enforce the law in a town Paramount just south of Los Angeles. Protesters blocked streets and defaced property. In response under Title 10 authority of the Insurrection Act president DJT called in 2000 of the California National Guard. 

Los Angeles has the largest Mexican American population in the US followed by counties in Texas Dallas and Houston areas and Cook County, Illinois. There were about 21 million people of Mexican descent in the US in 2000 which has almost doubled to about 37 million in 2023. Of this about 16 million live in California and 11 million live in Texas. Because of this concentration in Los Angeles immigration enforcement is faced with new challenges in the LA area. President Trump won a mandate in 2024 to take strong immigration enforcement of the nation's laws.

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Emil Bowe, 43 years, is a federal prosecuting attorney at Southern Division, New York. WSJ calls him a state school kid among Ivy Leaguers, a law and order type who is passionate about prosecuting the bad guys. Emily Bowe and Todd Blanche are Deputy Attorney General and Principal Attorney General under DJT in 2025. Todd Blanche brought him in to defend DJT in 2024 cases filed against DJT.

Bowe from Seneca Falls upstate New York  went to University of Albany for BA and Georgetown for JD. He has given priority to pursuing immigration offense and narcotics crime in preference to white collar crimes and has a single minded dedication to the task. He is now overhauling the Justice Department to make the shift from white collar crime to immigration and fentanyl flows at the US borders.

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Viewing people as "pass throughs for units of fiscal stimulus" that is no longer an option, no longer wise, no longer possible. Brian Deese, US president Biden's economic adviser, uses this sentence as he describes the approach of president Biden in putting together a $2 trillion plan to invest in infrastructure and in the people of America. He compares 2009 to 2021 and talks about the differences then and now after the pandemic. The coronavirus pandemic exposed all the weak spots in the American fabric and society and in the way national life was organized. Today the pain is felt in socio economic groups throughout the country.    US president Biden wants to make a decisive impact with large investments in infrastructure, education, health and jobs. In American manufacturing competitiveness and in America's technological advancement. The investments made in 2009 were in simple recovery mode, this time the investments are intended to bring America back to its position in the world after 1945, the hope and the optimism for a better future. ...

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How is the oil price cap by the US, EU and G-7 countries working and what is its impact on Russian oil revenues, is the subject of this report in NYT. The gap between the price of Brent Crude  the global oil benchmark and Urals Crude for Russian oil is now about $40 in January 2023. Russia's finance ministry says the average price in January for Urals crude was $49.50, half of what it was a year earlier. 

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In the middle of the pandemic US Congress approved $190 billion in aid to schools. Of this 20% was to be spent addressing learning loss for children. The pandemic period taking 50 million children out of schools is now seen as the biggest disruption in history of American education. It set student progress in math and education back by two decades and widened the gap between wealthy and poor children. These learning gaps remain unaddressed even as money runs out in 2024.

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Tether is a cryptocurrency based out of the Virgin Islands that is pegged to the dollar 1:1. It has $120 billion in assets mostly safe US Treasury bills, and gold, bitcoin. It made $6.2 billion in profit for its owners more than Black Rock largest American asset manager fund. What does this mean? It offers an outlet for trade in oil for Russia and other countries such as Venezuela. At the same time it is useful to people in countries with high inflation such as Argentina and Turkey  where people use it to protect their assets from inflation erosion. When its use is widespread this also results in diversion of funds away from the Treasury as in Venezuela where an oil minister was toppled, says this WSJ report. And at the same time it gives protection to Venezuelans from extreme inflation. How it works- Tether Holdings issues virtual coins to a select number of direct customers, mostly trading firms, who wire real world dollars in exchange for Tether.  Tether buys US Treasury bills with these dollars to back Tether's value. Who runs Tether? Tether's cofounders included a plastic surgeon Giancarlo Devasini. All co-founders sold out to Devasini, who runs it from an enclave in southern coast of France. The company was founded in 2014. Interest was slim in a stable token backed by US Treasury bills. Then in 2020-21 bull run in the stock market traders started using it to buy and sell out of risky bets. It's market capitalization exploded from $4 billion to about $80 billion.  Tether says it avoids illicit transactions. WSJ report says 2713 wallets or about $1.2 billion were blacklisted, this out of $153 billion provided by Tether to its 2 popular blockchains. Rest of the funds already sent on, says WSJ. ...

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Risk is inherent in investing. It just needs to be understood well and grasped. There is a lesson in here that some risk is necessary, depending on one's risk horizon and it does not have to be Argentine bonds. Argentine 100 year bond and US Treasury 30 year bond returns 2017-2025 show quite a surprise.  50% return for 2017-25 on Argentine 100 year bonds vs -10% on US Treasury 30 year bonds. It shows the nature of emerging market risk says the WSJ- political risk. At one point the Argentine bonds showed a 50% loss, yet investors willing to stick through the downturn did better than expected, much better. The recovery did not start till Jan 2024 though, 7 years later. In this case the risk was the pandemic in addition to political risk of Argentine earlier defaults but the recovery took place years after the pandemic declined and with the election of Milieu as president.

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Heat domes such as this one are rarely seen in the northeastern US. This week mid June 2024 is seeing a heat dome develop over areas from Albany, New York to Pittsburgh and Chicago. A heat dome is an area of compressed air like a lid on a pot that stays that way over a vast area with the sun heating the air at the surface till air flows in from another part of the US. Thus seen in the summer in the south and southeast rarely in the north and northeastern US and is one more sign of the cha nges in weather patterns coming from climate change. Itself a result of business and industry operating over decades on fossil fuels coal and oil without any oversight over consequences.

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Central banks for the European Union, US and Britain show slight divergence in their approach to inflation. The Bank of England's Bailey increases interest rates in UK to 0.25% from 0.1% a slight increase to signal its direction more than a serious interest rate increase. In the US Fed chairman Powell indicates an intention to make 2-3 rate increases  in 2022 if the conditions require action. In the European Union Ms. Lagarde of the ECB will taper purchases to 20 billion euros a month later in 2022, and keep interest rates at minus -0.5%. The British pound and the euro gained slightly as a result. 

Supply chain issues and energy prices are a big part of the current inflation increases which were described as transitory by Mr. Powell. The persistence of this inflation led to recent moves by the central bank. At some point these pressures would ease leading to a long term policy approach that pushes for a robust economic recovery.

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This self portrait by Vladimir Putin about his growing up years in Leningrad and the life of his father and mother during the siege of Leningrad by Germans may offer a better sense of the mind and thinking of the Russian president than the Dresden years when he was a junior Russian official in Communist East Germany (the GDR). It is an interview of the Russian president in 2000 by Nataliya Gevorkyan, Natalya Timakova, and Andrei Kolesnikov over twenty years back. Putin's father suffered severe injuries during the war in the fighting around Leningrad, twice being given up for dead and being dragged wounded across the frozen Neva river to a hospital by a neighbor. His mother was half dead from starvation and his father passed on his food given to him at the hospital. Having gone through the memories of this period affected Vladimir Putin's view of the world and no amount of US or German assurance about NATO's intentions may have erased these memories from childhood. The long period in power and the Covid isolation may have led to  perceptions that were less likely to change so that Putin did his own research and wrote a long paper on Ukraine in 2021 that reflected Russia and Ukraine's long history but did not reflect the changing national aspirations of Ukraine's people in 2022. This may have led to the miscalculation and the errors by both Putin and the leaders Merkel-Bush-Obama that the detailed WSJ report of 20 years of events show to have happened. The WSJ report of April 1, 2022, was titled "Vladimir Putin's 20 Year March to War in Ukraine and How the West Mishandled It." The Social Democrats in Germany under Schroeder and Steinmeier mishandled it by deepening economic integration with Russia as a way to make up for what had happened in the German invasion of Russia, and the Christian Democrats under Merkel with business interests never really grasped the different thinking of the Russian president relying solely on deep economic integration of the EU and Germany with Russia as well as China as an answer. Mr. Bush and Mr. Obama from a distance even less so.  This has led to the miscalculation by Russia under Putin leading to invasion of Ukraine, and the US and Germany being unprepared about taking action to prevent it.  Beyond the key participants and the war damage, there is the enormous damage that is taking place in the mental health around the world after Covid with constant barrage of images of war and refugees streaming into Poland. There is the problem of food imports, of food scarcity in the Middle East, and inflation in food prices for Africa and the Middle East. As Brendan Simms, a Cambridge historian has shown in his book "Europe The Struggle of Supremacy 1453 to the Present," which is now being read by German chancellor Scholz, this has happened before with the UK, Netherlands, Spain, Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Russia engaging in these conflicts that led to prolonged wars and eventually to only small shifts in power. Yet with huge effects for ordinary people caught in the wars such as today's refugees and people struggling to feed their families in Africa and Asia after the effects of Covid on income. Food prices have gone up by 50% to almost double in these countries.   ...

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DY Chandrachud and his father CY Chandrachud will soon be the first father son combination of Supreme Court Chief Justices in Indian history. This has not happened in Britain or US. CY Chandrachud was Chief Justice of the SupremeCourt of India from 1978 to 1985. DY Chandrachud was part of a three member bench of the Indian Supreme Court that looked at The Modi government vaccination policy in April 2021 and gave a ruling that formed the basis of Mr. Modi's action for a new and broader vaccination policy that ensured access to the entire Indian population of 1.2 billion people.

This report in The Times of India describes the son's record following in the footsteps of his father. DY Chandrachud studied at St Stephens College Delhi, Delhi University Law, and Harvard for his Masters degree in Law. His experience includes heading the Uttar Pradesh High Court in Allahabad and holding legal positions in Mumbai.

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The US president calls Brazilian president Lula Inacio Da Silva, "a good person actually," after meetings at the UN in September 2025. Tariffs imposed on Brazil for cocoa, coffee, meat and fruits have been lifted. Lula asserted Brazil's independent institutions and Brazil as a sovereign country. The tariffs were never popular in Brazil and Lula's popularity in Brazil is now up to to 33% after an earlier decline. He is more energized and at 80 is expected to run again for office. COP30 just completed in Belem, Brazil, and Lula has received favorable response in trying to salvage the climate agenda following the shift away from costly climate change decisions to the cost of living crisis.