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Was Russia better off in 2021 than after the invasion of Ukraine. Was it better for upward mobility, health, openness of the economy and growth, and standards of living. Was the US perceived as a hegemon when it also lacked control of its own companies that preferred to invest elsewhere and ignored US workers for a long time. This report in the WSJ asks whether it is not true that not just Russia, but the US, the EU, China, India, other large nations faced a world order that was in many ways difficult, not to their liking, and in some ways posed risks for their countries. 

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Five of eight unions in the German Confederation of Trade Unions DGB have increased membership. There is a shift to younger members as older workers retire. Membership is more engaged than ever before. More unions are taking up the issue of wage increases after workers were accomodative during the pandemic and Ukraine war. DW.com shows graphs of German workers having lost 18 days due to strikes coming ninth in the developed economies compared to 92 days in France, Canada 78, and the US 9 days. Cost of living action is seen as needed by workers for fair wages. There are 1.8 million open jobs and workers are now getting more confident to ask for better working conditions and higher pay, say experts. This is also happening in the US with president Biden's support. The problem is that only 50% of jobs in Germany are covered by collective bargaining agreements designed to ensure that companies pay decent wages. The EU directive in 2022 set a target of 80% for collective bargaining agreements. This makes it harder for unions yet the unions and workers are taking up the work with enthusiasm.   ...

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Paul Krugman points out in the NYT that September 2022 high inflation numbers for core inflation excluding energy and food of 6.6% on annualized basis, is still not a good way to measure actual inflation. This is because housing costs as measured by the core inflation index used by the Labor Department are represented by housing rental costs. The rental costs have a time lag in this index and after a sharp spike are now cooling off. Add to this slowing economies and recessions in European economies and the situation suggests that the economy and inflation may be moderating more than expected. Additional factors are that the effects of sharp prior 2 increases in interest rates by the Fed of 0.75% and a third of 0.75% expected soon, are still not fully realized in the economy. This view was also expressed by experts in the WSJ. It was widely perceived that the high inflation that we are seeing is a result of temporary factors such as the war in Ukraine, food and oil supply constraints, supply chain bottlenecks, new adjustments to manufacturing at home after covid. As these factors ease and after the Fed's action to raise interest rates, slowing economies in Europe adjusting to climate change actions,  the moderating effects on the economy of the costs in switching to renewable energy also a factor, this high inflation has prospects of moderating. The successful switch to renewables particularly solar, and better agricultural practices, could set along term trajectory of moderate inflation in costs of energy and food supplies.  ...

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Work requirements is one area in which Biden and McCarthy have a point of agreement in the debt ceiling discussions. Biden says he has supported work requirements in the past. Biden also says he would do nothing that affects health benefits. Under Biden the jobs market is the best it has been for over two decades which makes it easier to have some sort of work requirement for people able to work before they can collect government aid benefits. This makes an agreement possible in which Biden and McCarthy continue discussions with Biden building some form of rapport with a Congressman he has known in the past from his days in the US Congress. An agreement he pulls together would then have the support of most Republicans and be passed with the help of all Democrats. This would meet with opposition from a small faction of the Republican party, opposition that McCarty has become accustomed to including the prolonged voting it took to get himself elected as Speaker. McCarthy and most Republicans are in favor of Ukraine and the EU support for Ukraine at a critical time. They including Mitch McConnell who is present in the negotiations would not want to do anything that spirals America into a financial crisis during a Ukraine counteroffensive with Biden and Scholz's support that could end the war in Ukraine. Biden probably shared the concerns of his G7 counterparts with the Republicans about this. McCarthy and Biden could then simply say they only worked to do the possible and move on to the bigger battle in 2024. ...

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The collapse of the will of people around Yanukovych, including a deputy interior minister, as fighting units moved with weapons taken from an armory in Lviv towards Kiev, may have been the decisive event that decided the fate of the Yakunovych government. The deputy interior minister then negotiated with a protest leader Levus realizing that other than the front line of police the rest of the police were ready to abandon the fight. Levus then negotiated a safe corridor for the police to withdraw. As the Polish diplomat Sikorski came out to the square he found to his complete astonishment the police simply disappearing from the Square in Kiev. Hours earlier he had warned protesters that a crackdown was coming and they would all be wiped out, according to a report in the WSJ by Benoit, Norman and Fidler, 2/22/2014, so that they should accept a deal which would set a date for new elections but not lead to the immediate resignation of Yakunovych. That deal it also appears came after a Putin call to Yakunovych and not simply from diplomatic pressures, and it is probable that Putin had realized earlier than the diplomats that most of the police were not going to fight. Bringing in the army would have had dangerous consequences for relations between Germany and Russia in particular- as German public and chancellor Merkel felt strongly about the situation in Ukraine- and relations with the European Union and the U.S. Putin, Yakunovych, and even the EU diplomats may have missed the depth of feeling in Ukraine and the organization of the protest movement. Germany and chancellor Merkel, with her determination to make things come out right in Europe after a flawed history, gave hope to the protest movement. ...

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This NYT report says there is scandal fatigue among Republicans and a sense about Mr. Trump that his time has passed. Much of the political gains made by Mr. Trump in 2017 were a result of the failures of president Bush within the Republican party wasting national resources on 2 remote wars while infrastructure was neglected, and the neglect of manufacturing communities in the US with jobs outsourced to China that presidents Bush and Obama failed to stop. With president Biden ending these wars period. And with Mr. Biden getting the legislation passed to put workers and families, American manufacturing, American infrastructure to the top of the agenda, the focus has shifted to China and Russia two countries that gained during the largely failed Clinton, Bush and Obama presidencies. The Ukraine war and China's belligerence over Taiwan remain an ever present risk. President Biden has articulated American resolve in this situation in a way that matches another president Harry Truman when he addressed the Soviet expansion in Berlin, then Greece, then across Eastern Europe, not seeking conflict yet not shirking responsibility for the free world. It is this new context in which the sordid affairs of a political outsider are presented to the ordinary American struggling to make a living during a cost of living crisis in 2023. ...

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Yaroslav Trofimov gives his reflections on what the war means for Russia in this Essay in WSJ, and the sense within Russia that the war itself was a mistake. A result of miscalculations and a result that leaves Russia in no way better than it was in 2021 before the conflict. Hard won economic gains achieved by Mr. Putin during the last two decades have in fact been compromised by the conflict. No discussion has even been done on the transition away from fossil fuels that have been accelerated by the conflict. This is particularly relevant for Russia where the question of redundant fossil fuel assets during the rapid transition to renewable energy is a problem that needs to be tackled. The Ukraine diversion in this way affects the Russian economy and acts as a distraction from important economic goals. Global public opinion is also affected in ways that do not look favorable for Russia the longer the war goes on particularly the effect on food insecurity in poor countries, and energy security in Europe for poor households, the senseless destruction of infrastructure in Ukraine and millions of women and children displaced, all creating a sense of overwhelming moral failure. Mr. Modi of India is reported by FR24 to have told Mr. Putin at a meeting on September 15 that "this is no time for war." This is shown on today's pages in Lyrarc. How could it be a time for war when the pandemic has taken lives of over 1 million people in the US, over 2 million in Europe, millions in Asia, Latin America and Africa, and the world is only now coming out of it. The competition is not between countries for major power status but between countries on achieving better lives for its people, stronger economies, and better job, health, infrastructure and services to ordinary people, tackling problems on a common basis such as climate change. In most situations even the advanced countries of North America and Europe are facing the same problems faced by middle income countries such as China,Russia, and developing countries such as India- how to combine market economy with State participation in the economy and government ensuring fairness to all, better distribution of incomes and wealth, ensuring that there is a level playing field for all and opportunities for all. ...

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Russian president Putin tells Russians at an annual news conference on Dec. 17, 2014, that the West wanted to deprive Russia of its natural resources. He says steps taken by the central bank and his administration were proper, including avoiding capital controls, except that the decision to raise interest rates to 17% in mid-Dec. should have been taken earlier. He deflects criticism that the sanctions and the decline in the ruble were "payment for Crimea" (Russia's takeover of the Crimea) by saying it was "payment for our independence, our sovereignty." Putin expressed unease with the expansion of NATO to Russia's borders. He told Russians to expect that the crisis will last for 2 years and during this time the Russian economy will adapt, in particular shifting its heavy dependence on oil exports. During the 10 years of the Putin administration since 2004, Russia has not made a vigorous effort to diversify away from oil dependence. Progress was made primarily in better integrating the economy with the European Union, entry into WTO, building a sovereign reserves fund, until the crisis in Ukraine. The Putin years may be seen in the future as the transition years towards a more diversified economy, and may lead to a shift away from the kind of management of economic and foreign policy by a single leader that may have led to the disruption in relations with Germany, a critical economic partner for Russia. Chancellor Merkel said Germany would continue to support sanctions as long as Russia opposed the right of self- determination of people in Europe and European values. Germany continues even now to maintain dialogue with Russia through Social Democrat Foreign Minister Steinmeier, which is why Putin continues to refer to it as "our partners" and cites the differences with our partners, very different from the Cold War period when no such close relations with Germany existed. ...

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This report in the WSJ gives the background and positions taken by Patriarch Krill of the Russian Orthodox Church, and his support for the war in Ukraine as part of Russian lands nationalism. Russian lands nationalism is an idea that comes from the beginnings of the Russian version of Christianity that had its origins in Kviv Ukraine in the 10th century. Patriarch Krill has had a varied role questioning some some state policies and then backing off and supporting the state says WSJ. In 2011 patriarch Krill stood up for protesters critical of manipulation in parliamentary elections that year. Patriarch Krill grew up in the years of Soviet rule and was 24 in 1970 when he began his work in the church. He was rector of a seminary in Leningrad by 1984 and after being critical of the Soviets and war in Afghanistan was sent to Smolensk says this report in WSJ. After he returned he worked with the Soviet state, and after voicing concerns in 2011 about parliamentary elections described as manipulated he has supported the Russian state as it becomes assertive about Russian lands nationalism. To understand the Orthodox Church in Russia one has to know its presence in the post Soviet period. About 63% of Russians belong to the Orthodox Church. It also includes Ukrainians. After Crimean invasion by Russia the Ukrainian Orthodox Church that makes up one third of the Russian Orthodox parishes was recognized as a separate church by Patriarch Bartholomev of Constantinople. Patriarch Bartholomev and Pope Francis the two leaders of the eastern and western churches in Constantinople and Rome have been critical of Patriarch Krill and his support for the war and the idea of Russian lands nationalism. Since the war some parishes in Russia have signed a letter opposing the killing of brothers in Christ and one parish leader was fined $500 for his statements. There is now intense debate among Russians about what this war means in bringing conflict on brotherly peoples about their preferences in 2022 for aligning with Europeans in the western part of Europe. For most of Europe in the 21st century there is a big change, in the countries near the Baltic sea in Northern Europe, in countries in the middle of Europe, in Eastern Europe, the 21st century is seen as a time when states and peoples are making their own choices about freedom and what their preferences are particularly the young people. They no longer understand or conform to ideas of the earlier period or centuries. And this is what has made Ukrainian young people oblivious about what Russian lands nationalism means and its relevance today. Buddhism is today not prevalent in South Korea a democratic state and in China a Communist state in the way it existed for centuries. For it to be relevant people need to begin to believe in it as in Japan or Sri Lanka or Thailand. In the 21st century young people are making different choices and this may well be where the Ukraine war shows that people's choices count particularly in the 21st century, and it has little to do with the west or the US or NATO or even Russia. ...

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US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will spend Tuesday night August 2 in Taipei, Taiwan. China has threatened severe consequences and Taiwanese forces are on alert. Yet with over $1 trillion in China's exports to US and EU in 2021 the response will have to take this into account as also the US and EU to redesign its supply chains. This is the first trip of a senior US official to Taiwan as Speaker Pelosi comes next to the Vice President to succeed the presidency. The US response to the Russian attack on Ukraine was made in Biden's word as a deterrent to China in its role in the Indo-Pacific region. The Pelosi trip may be a reflection of this policy that seeks to maintain the US position that Indo-Pacific is international waters, that US policy will continue as before undeterred by actions such as the Russian attack on Ukraine with the support of China. And that US will engage fully with allies in the Indo-Pacific- Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan. And that is doing this with the cooperation of its allies in the region- Australia, Japan and India. US and EU imports from China are $541 and $522 billion over $1 trillion for 2022. Loss of even a significant portion of these exports from major tensions in the region would have a severe impact on Chinese economic growth. The US and EU are already engage in redesigning the supply chain and would also face problems in a transition similar to the gas rationing in Germany after cutoff of Russian supplies. The trade is too big a factor at this time. ...

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See the BBC reports on the DJT meeting with European leaders at the White House August 18, 2025, for Ukraine peace settlement. An astonishing day showing the learning curve of DJT, Zelensky, and the European leaders down to the last detail, a communication that was planned to the details, with DJT and Zelensky both reading from carefully prepared remarks, so that everything would go right, no missed chances. DJT also talks to Putin during a pause inthe meeting to brief him on the talks he had with European leaders. Though the media reports this as not expected it was all part of the plan so that DJT could play the role of someone the Russian president could trust, as well as DJT playing the role of someone the Europeans could trust at the same time- not an easy task but done with a sense of seriousness by DJT knowing that the peace depended on winning trust on both sides.

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European Union plans are for cutting by two thirds current imports of oil and gas from Russia in 2022. The EU's plan is to take down the imports of Russian natural gas from 155 billion cubic meters which represent 40% dependence on natural gas from Russia, the import figure for 2021, down to 100 billion cubic meters. James Henderson, chairman of the gas program and the energy transition research initiative at Oxford Insititute for Energy Studies, looks at how the EU will get this done.  The European Commission's plan is to get 50 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas. New projects for LNG and return to market for supplies that were disrupted earlier would generate 40 billion cubic meters of LNG. Of this 30 billion cubic meters could go to Europe. Another 10 billion cubic meters is expected from Norway, Algeria and Azerbaijan. Some of this by delaying maintenance. Conservation and reduced consumption could deliver savings of 38 billion cubic meters of gas. Of this 20 billion cubic meters would come from new solar and wind energy. Roof top solar and installing new wind energy can save about 4 billion cubic meters of natural gas. This does not include energy saving from industry, particularly Germany, which makes up a significant part of the use of oil and gas. Increased temporary use of coal may be considered and nuclear energy is an option in some countries. These are first step, additional action will be needed to reduce dependence on Russia from the current EU plan of one third reduction in 2022 to two third reduction by the end of the year to demonstrate the EU's resolve in the war in Ukraine. ...

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This France24 report looks at the question of whether the policies of four term German chancellor Angela Merkel emboldened Russia under president Putin to launch the invasion of Ukraine. FR24's interview with the vice president of the German Marshall Fund and head of its Berlin office, Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, shows there are many reasons why Merkel's policies were serious errors that ignored caution from past experience and from other western leaders in the US and Eastern Europe. Kleine-Brockhoff says that "Europe did not go wrong, Germany and France did. France and Germany tend to speak for the rest of Europe. Bit these mis-assessments were made in Paris and Berlin, not elsewhere. Eastern Europe didn't go wrong. Northern Europe did'nt go wrong."  Kleine-Brockhoff says the war in Ukraine calls for an urgent re-assessment of the German and French policy towards Russia. "Not only is the post Cold-War order crumbling before our eyes, so are the strategies employed by Germany and France." Under particular scrutiny comes Merkel's policy, and policy supported by Steinmeier of the SPD, that took German dependence on Russian energy supplies from 36% during the annexation of Crimea to 55% in March 2022 with the invasion of Ukraine. Germany's conservative Die Welt has this to say- "What Germany and Europe have experienced over the last days is nothing short of the reversal of the Merkel policies of guaranteeing peace and freedom through treaties with despots," describing Merkel's policies as "an error." About France Kleine-Brockhoff says there were lofty ambitions under Sarkozy and Macron of European strategic autonomy, which did not correspond to reality, to fantasies of European armies when there was nothing but NATO. It is not dialogue with Putin and Russia that was a problem, says Laure Delcour, international relations expert at the Sorbonne Nouvelle in Paris. Some form of dialogue is necessary she says, but the dialogue has to have clear objectives. We must not confuse cause with consequence, she says. We know  that NATO enlargement had a big impact on Russia's perceptions, but the real problem is how Russia responded to enlargement. "In this case the problem is the consequence."  ...

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Elbridge Colby memo led to slowing of US shipments to Ukraine in July 2025 just as Russia expanded its drone and missile attacks on Ukraine. Leading DJT to resume all shipments and override Colby as he supported shipment of Patriot systems to  Ukraine, with Germany willing to pay for the cost. Who is Colby? Colby 45 years, was made undersecretary of defense for policy in DJT second term. He is the grandson of a former CIA director, attended school in Japan where his father was working at an investment bank, and later at Yale Law School. Colby's view is for the US to focus on Asia, specifically on China and the defense of Taiwan, the Philippines and Japan. He does not favor Ukraine in NATO, sees Russia as a potential partner, and is a Republican who opposed the war in Iraq as a monumental waste of American resources. Some of his views are controversial such as focus only on China when US faces other threats around the world. Colby opposed an attack on Iran and even argued that US could manage a nuclear armed Iran which he has now retracted. ...

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Failing states pose immigration issues in the US at the border with Mexico. With a collapsing economy there are 7.1 million refugees from Venezuela. Many have settled in Latin America. Others hundreds of thousands want to cross illegally into the US. As the US has no diplomatic relations with the US making harder to deport them. When Ukraine war started Ukrainians were kept from crossing from Mexico by setting up a legal path for them to come. 78000 Cubans, Haitians and Nicaraguans were crossing in December 2022, this dropped to hundreds by July by setting up a legal path for these people to get a work permit for 2 years legally. Venezuela will require a similar innovative solution at the border.

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This editorial in the Economist looks at China's relationship with Russia. It says the Ukraine conflict and western sanctions have resulted in Russia moving closer to China. Yet the two countries have competing interests in central Asia, and different relations with India and Vietnam, in the Asian region. Russia is also wary of China copying designs of Sukhoi aircraft in sales to China of advanced military technology. The major oil and gas deal signed in 2014 provides Russia with a new outlet for oil and gas with the cooling of the relationship with Europe. Yet Russia has strong ties built with Germany over the entire post war period, and differences have emerged in U.S.- German relations. Germany's relationship with Russia- cooled by sanctions and German wariness over Russian intervention in Ukraine and Russian wariness over NATO close to its borders- spans 7 decades and is likely to remain strong in the long term. This comes from the shared sense of awareness of the terrible conflicts of an earlier period, just as it has for French-German relations, and from the strong efforts made by Germany to preserve the relationship and peace in Europe. Chinese president Xi's visit to Moscow on May 9, for celebrations of victory over Nazi Germany, will be followed by a visit May 10 by Chancellor Merkel of Germany. A factor in German-Russian relations is the close trade links, cultural exchanges, and history going back to the GDR where Chancellor Merkel is from, built up over many years, that are likely to set the long term future of relations. China's dominant partner relationship in the China- Russia relations does not bode well for the future of relations, compared to the equal partner relations with its European neighbor, Germany. In this different light Ukraine is a temporary pause, in German-Russian relations and peace in Europe, a situation which is in China's long term interest as it focusses on its economy and the next phase of development for a modernized economy. Especially as China continues to build on its own vital trade relations with Germany and the European Union, the latest example being Germany, other EU nations, and India, joining the China sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. ...

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So much for political campaigning and talk of inflation, inflation comes in lower in September after DJT tariffs of 10-15% on EU, Japan and other trading partners. The higher tariffs on China are action needed to reduce trillion dollar trade deficits the world has with China, deficits that are economically destabilizing for the world economy, with supply chain concentration a serious problem. US inflation in September came in at 3.0 percent lower than expected.  One reason is that the headline numbers are high but in actual practice the tariffs are on average at 12.5% not 17% or 25% as headlines show. The tariffs vary by country and the US was careful to keep them at 10% for the EU and Britain and 15% for Japan, the key trading partners. China is an exception at 47% because it is US policy to reduce the world's 1 trillion trade deficit with China and cutting this is a major goal. For decades the US tried every possible way to bring it down to no avail till this effort with tariffs. Another is exceptions in products- for India this includes semiconductors, smartphones and pharmaceuticals. Another factor is that postpandemic inflation in 2021-2022 created higher profit margins in auto, retail and other sectors of the economy. As a result only 30-40% of the tariff gets passed onn to consumers. In autos only about 20% because buyers cannot afford the high prices. Some tariffs are still being negotiated and are a foreign policy tool to get India to stop funding Russia in the Ukraine war knowing that India was importing most of its oil from non-Russian sources till 2019. China is also funding Russia, that is true but the US can insist on exercising its leverage with Asian partners not China. With China the tariff on fentanyl and the overall 47% tariff- down from 57% after meetings in Busan, South Korea between Xi and DJT last month- shows the US takes the Chinese role in distorting world trade to its benefit seriously.  ...

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A major shift in foreign investment may be taking place as the 2014 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum takes place in May 2014. Russian policy in Ukraine and tensions with the U.S. and Germany could lead to a shift in investment to other emerging market countries. China's tensions with Japan could lead to a similiar shift of Japanese foreign investment. At the same time India has elected a new government with an absolute majority and an overwhelming mandate from young people to accelerate development. The new government under the BJP party's Modi has a decade of experience attracting foreign investment in western India. Indonesia, Vietnam, Africa and other emerging market countries, could benefit from the shift in investment. Investment could also return to the home countries with lower labor costs in Southern Europe, lower labor/energy/transport costs in North America. For Russia the debate at the St Petersburg Economic Forum was about pursuing one of three policy paths with some riskier than others, or some combination also risky and uncertain- depending on state banks and oil windfall funds, increasing ties with Asian countries, continuing on the current path with lower foreign investment and continued capital outflows. The failure to use the time wisely to diversify the oil based economy which could have been better accomplished in an economy not overly dependent on crony capitalism and centralized economy, both current characteristics, will affect future progress. A key weakness for Russia compared to China is the centralization under one person Putin, more so in the third term. In China the two man team Keqiang and Jinping is part of a larger team chosen by consensus and negotiation and part of a rotational scheme. It has senior leaders who initiated the changes to a market driven economy in the nineties determined to see China on track....

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There are serious differences in what Ukraine says it received $67 billion military aid and $31 for budget needs compared to the $350 billion figure cited by DJT. DJT calls Zelensky as not legitimately representing Ukraine as no elections can be called in Ukraine in wartime and Zelensky's term expired in 2024, saying should'nt the people of Ukraine be at the table. He also says Ukraine was at the table for 3 years and even a half baked negotiator could have settled this war. What DJT means is that Ukraine could have settled it by promising to stay out of NATO, and remain neutral not joining the EU. It would have given up control over formerly Russia supporting parts of Ukraine in the east that Russia now controls. Ukraine would have returned to being a buffer zone between Western Europe and Russia of today. Even today this has not changed as any peace would not reverse the status quo of control of these eastern regions by Russia. On NATO Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says- "Trump (DJT) is the first, and so far only Western leader to publicly and loudly say that one of the root causes of the Ukraine situation is the impudent line of the previous administration to draw Ukraine into NATO.” Zelensky's popularity has fallen in Ukraine as the war drags on. DJT says US has put $350 billion in Ukraine and asked for an agreement committing half of Ukraine's rare earth resources to the US. Zelensky says he cannot sell the state out. Zelensky's estimate of US assistance is $67 billion military aid and $31 billion in aid for the budget. ...

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Daniel Henninger of the WSJ Editorial Board says even if a Republican is elected president it would be a question of 4 more years of what? The big problem today he says is the small number of legislators in the US House of Representatives, about 20 in the Freedom Caucus, that are opposed to the government operating unless they get their way. The result is that independent Speakers of the Republican controlled House, with Republicans having a slim majority, are unable to get elected, and the Speaker elected is a relative newcomer Mike Johnson of Louisiana, who entered Congress as recently as 2017. The new Speaker has said the legislation passed by a bipartisan group of Senators in the US Senate 70-30 for aid to Ukraine is "dead on arrival." Result an impasse with some saying this is the most ineffective Congress ever. In this situation if a Republican is elected president says Henninger he can do little because a loss of even one legislative branch to Democrats the House or the Senate would leave America where it started- in an impasse for 2024-2028. For this reason he says even though Mr. Trump said he would do great things there was little he could point to in his vision for the future, and little he could do just by signing executive orders that would later be reversed.  ...

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The sense of conflict in China and US relations may not have developed in the shaping of Xi Jinping's thinking till the emergence of Mr. Trump. Jinping comes into the China shaped by Deng and Zemin after the collapse of the purely Communist experiment with modernization without access to western technologies and capital, and the experiment with American help. It is only after the realization that the Communist party had lost its sense of purpose in these years leading to the Bo Xilai episode, and the rhetoric of Mr. Trump against China, that the idea of first friction and then conflict emerged. The initial idea for Jinping before Trump was that this has worked for China- the experiment with the cooperation of the US in modernizing China. Trump's rhetoric and the Republican party's rhetoric about China stealing American jobs and technology after 2015 may have been targeted to win the election but it had an unintended effect after the tariffs of shaping Jinping's thinking about the future for China. Between the Bo Xi Lai episode in 2012 when it appeared he would be attempting to manipulate the Communist party's direction in unknown and unpredictable ways, Bo's trial in 2013 and the anticorruption campaign and the 2015 election campaign of Mr. Trump in the US, there must have been much soul searching in the party that shaped Jinping's thinking about the future for China after all the tumult of the 20th century starting with the Boxer rebellion in 1901. Stability is highly prized in China particularly for modernization. This perspective is important to grasp for world peace to be preserved with different coexisting perspectives about the world based on national as well as shared interests in issues such as climate change. US after its own disastrous experiment with capitalism that led to widening inequality of the kind not seen since Lincoln in the 1850's, the 2009 crisis, and the shift of jobs to China under a purely capitalist idea of how economies should function, had its own national interests in jobs, local manufacturing and Made in the USA. Once this process was underway after 2016 and grasped by president Biden after 2020, and supply chain reconstruction made the goal after covid, the US and China were on divergent economic and political paths.   That rethinking by Xi Jinping is not over as it may still be going on. The war in Ukraine may even convince Jinping and China's No. 2 leader Li Keqiang who studied the US constitution and American urbanization under mentors when he was in college, that Russia's prolongation of the war in Ukraine does not serve the interests of China. That risking relations with the European Union as Russia prolongs the war and finds itself in the complex problems of  a war it started, is not in China's interests in setting its own course for the future. ...

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What happened on September 10, 2024 in the Harris Trump ABC television debate moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis? It is hard to prepare for a debate, things can go wrong, unanticipated situations may arise. 67 million audience, 51 million for Biden Trump last debate, it can stress you out- UNLESS you Trust your authentic self knowing people can see through you if you are not honest forthright and stating it clearly. Harris could say she did approve fracking now as policy action she cast decisive vote for new oil leases. I am from a family like yours struggled with a single parent mother, ("not $400 million platter")I also support small businesses. If the other side is telling lies prolifically, make it clear vigorously yet with it not changing your demeanor and your focus on housing, cost of living, experience for NATO "from the same old playbook" and a warning about the lies to come to prepare the audience very early. Save the time responding to insult to use every moment constructively to define your message for the question at hand which is in addition to the questions put to you which are merely for organization immigration, crime, economy, cost of living, chips and science competition, Ukraine, Afghanistan. Harris said nothing about "Marxist economic professor father, other personal insults just acknowledged "It is a tragedy," don't you think fellow citizens? What would 4 years be like under Harris? (and 4 years under Trump?) Here's my plan for housing, for not starting trade wars while letting chips and science help competitors as Trump.   ...

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Finnish president Niinisto provides a new understanding of Mr. Putin and the thinking that led to the invasion of Ukraine. Mr. Niinisto has an advantage having spoken with Mr. Putin countless times says this report in WSJ, and spoke again to Mr. Putin on May 14 to tell him that Finland was planning to join NATO. Putin simply responded that Russia does not pose a threat and "you made a mistake." He says it was not the Finnish way to not call Putin and tell him directly, and that not doing so would be like sneaking away around the corner. Mr. Niinisto says WSJ, has a rare insight into the thinking that led to the behavior of Mr. Putin in launching the war. Here are some insights from this report by Adam O'Neal of WSJ. On the situation in Ukraine Niinisto says " I would be a lot more worried about Ukrainians than about how Russians feel." Mr. Putin's willingness to see Ukraine's industrial centers, its infrastructure and cities destroyed, turning them into moon craters in the east compares with the relative ease of life in Moscow, St Petersburg and other cities, cushioned by Russian oil and gas exports and financial reserves. As a student of Finland's long and violent history with Russia Mr. Niinisto has some unique insights into Russian thinking. He tells WSJ's Adam O'Neal  that if a Russian is angry, yes, be careful, but if he's calm, be even more careful. The Russian invasion of Finland led to loss of 200,000 lives in 1939-40, and another 250,000 Russian lives in fighting between 1941-1944. Finland has 300,000 men or women in military reserves and men between 18 years and 60 years are called up for military service with the Finnish Constitution requiring every citizen to contribute to national defense. Recently Finland ordered 64 F-35 fighter jets from the US. What led to the invasion of Ukraine by Mr. Putin? Niinisto says that "somehow Mr. Putin has a feeling that Russia was betrayed in the 90's by the West. Over time this thinking continued feeding the negativity says Niinisto and led to the thinking that Russia could be betrayed once more.  Another aspect of Mr. Putin which was covered during the last decade of relations with Ukraine in Lyrarc, was his perception that Ukraine under various leaders before Zelensky was basically led by corrupt leaders including one president he supported but lost power in the last decade. Mr. Putin saw protests in Kviv and Lviv that ousted a president he supported recently as orchestrated from outside. This led to thinking that Ukrainian nationalism did not exist and he believed that Kviv would not be defended and would fall easily within a week or weeks. As his nationalist perceptions and that of a small group that included his partner in office Mr. Medvedev became stronger in the last ten years Mr. Putin made the decision to take the option for invasion in the thinking that the response of the US and Germany would not be to support Ukraine with arms and other aid. The CDU and SPD was perceived as weak in Germany and Scholz not seen as able to cut down oil and gas imports to the EU. Biden was seen as not willing to stop Russia by taking on a difficult conflict because of China allying itself with Russia, considering China's interconnections with the American economy. The timing was seen as good considering that this level of dependence on oil and gas imports of Europe on Russia would never be the case after planned shifts to renewable energy. The Russian economy was cushioned by its $620 billion in reserves and by the world's need for energy even as the shift to renewable was taking place. This window my have induced Mr. Putin to take what appeared to be a rational decision that ignored the common feelings of humanity of risking the destruction of a brotherly people that spoke Russian, prayed in Orthodox churches, and where Russia as a state started in the year 1000. Cambridge historian Brendan Simms in his new book "Europe : The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the present," has shown all European powers susceptible of reasoning and calculation of this type in their wars since 1453 in the struggle for supremacy in Europe up to the present- the Portuguese, the Spanish, the Dutch, the British, the French, the Germans, the Russians, the Danes, the Swedes. This also led to British and French empires in Asia and Africa with subjugation of Asian and African people. The Second World War had created the perception that somehow this had changed after the loss of millions of lives- that was the perception of Merkel a pastor's daughter who had grown up in the former communist state of GDR in East Germany, and of SPD leader Steinmeier who felt strongly about the loss of lives from the Nazi invasion. Merkel and Steinmeier built the relationship of Germany with Russia that has collapsed under Germany's new leader Scholz and Habeck-Baerbock of the Greens party. Merkel and Steinmeier also built the trade relationship with China that also faces collapse with China's support of Russia under Mr. Jinping, and the unexpected shifts in Chinese leadership and policies from that pursued by premier Deng and his successors in 1990-2010 of interconnected economic links with US and EU. Mr. Scholz, the new chancellor of Germany has Brendan Simms book on Europe on his reading list for 2022 as he ponders over the lessons of 2022 and the pandemic. Mr. Biden with long experience in the Senate of the US has a memory and understanding of what happened since World War II, how America got to this point, and what it will have to do to bring back the American spirit to the Free World that America has led for most of the last two hundred years. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Western nations including Europe, Canada, Japan and South Korea, are members of the International Enerrgy Agency, which has 1.5 billion barrels in reserve. The IEA will release oil from its reserves to support president Biden's plan to release 180 million barrels over the next 6 months. OPEC that includes Russia plans to increase production by only about 432,000 barrels a day.  During the Trump administration Saudi Arabia and Russia were at odds on production levels leading to Russia increasing production to higher levels than OPEC would allow. This led to a temporary collapse of oil prices to levels as low as $30. To help the US oil fracking industry which could not operate at these low prices president Trump brought the two sides together into what is now OPEC+. The Biden administration has ties with both Iran and Saudis, and aims to revive the Iran nuclear deal, withdrew support for Saudi air strikes on Yemeni Iran backed Huthi rebels. In this geopolitical situation Saudis are reluctant to respond to US calls to increase production as they have done in the past. With climate change and the COP26 agenda in Glasgow there is a plan to shift away from fossil fuels such as coal and oil that are supplied by OPEC and Australia. This means that a shift away from Russian or Saudi oil is also a shift towards renewable energy such as wind and solar which is needed to combat climate change. The Ukraine war and efforts to wean Europe away from Russia sourced energy will accelerate the changes needed to tackle climate change, even though the US fracking industry will step in to increase production at oil prices at $100+ in 2022. After 2023-2024 the push for conservation and renewable energy from today's crisis and Glasgow COP26 commitments, sharp slowdown in China and renewable focused India is likely to bring down oil prices to reasonable levels for a transition period to renewable energy. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The nearly unanimous support for president Trump in the impeachment inquiry from Republicans in Congress is a result of strong consistent support from a loyal base, strong fund raising in competitive races for members of Congress who supported Trump, and the sense that the whole process was flawed and part of partisan politics. There was also a sense among members of Congress in the House and Senate that the actions in Ukraine did not rise to the level of impeachable offense.  Throughout the process from the beginning Mr. Trump, Mr. Pence, Mr. McCarthy minority leader in the House and Mr. McConnell majority leader in the Senate stayed engaged with individual members keeping together a tight knit community of legislators. As a result unprecedented action was seen in 2019-2020 with every single Democrat voting for impeachment and every single Republican voting against, and prominent members of each side showing outrage at events or how the proceedings were conducted. Each side even seeing the impeachment inquiry as a strategic step towards the presidential election in 2020. Democrats looking for some slight advantage in the midwestern states that moved the election to Trump the last time. Republicans seeing this as a way to rally the base, play to Mr. Trump's strengths in persuasion, and to vigorously defend the economic achievements in international trade agreements and the economy. ...