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Higher inflation in Germany could help rebalance the German economy by increasing imports. German inflation has averaged 1.6% since 1999, compared to 2.0 % for the eurozone. It was 2.3% in December. And after years of wage restraint German unions are increasing the wage demands. IG Metall is looking for a 6.5% wage increase. And interest rates at 1% are quite low for Germany where unemployment is down to 5.5%, according to Eurostat, and employers have to meet higher wage demands. The ECB is aiming at 2% inflation and Germany has a 26% weighting in the calculation of the rate. But as Italy, France and Spain see inflation decline there is room for addditional inflation in Germany before the eurozone goes well above the 2% inflation rate. By freezing wages and improving price competitiveness with German products, other countries could increase exports. Yet the prospects of this making a large difference is limited because German companies are likely to push for wage restraint. The Bundesbank predicts wage increases of 2.4% in 2012. Over time the wage restraint in other eurozone countries and even slightly higher wages in Germany would reverse the trend since 1999 of Germany having much lower inflation, and this could be one of the factors helping in rebalancing....

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The Wash. Post says the former president's speech as it wore on for 90 minutes rambling on without clarity on discussion of issues and policies for the future was a missed opportunity. Nothing was said about bringing down the cost of living when so many actions on multiple fronts are needed. Nothing on climate change or climate change action but leaving it out out of denial it exists during the worst heat waves and floods in a century. It is now Biden's turn to spell out the details of policies for cost of living action step after step of action, says the Post. Post readers say so far the Post titles and phrases it uses are more out of social media and ask ominously is it itself turning into social media as shown by the post of Letters it has received on coverage of Biden and the future 2024-2028 on this Lyrarc page.

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The new minimum wage of $15 effective Nov. 1, 2018, applies to 250,000 current employees at Amazon, 40% of its global  workforce. An additional 100,000 seasonal workers also get the $15 wage. California's minimum wage is set to go to $15 an hour in 2022. The Amazon move helps it attract and retain workers in competition with other retailers such as Target, UPS and Fedex. In doing this Amazon is removing certain incentive pay and stock compensation for these hourly employees. Target has set 2020 as the date for $15 per hour wage, currently it is $12 at Target. Walmart with 1.5 million employees set $11 per hour as the starting hourly pay for workers in 2018. Overall median salary annually for Amazon workers worldwide was $28,446 in 2017, which works out to about $13.68 an hour, but this includes software engineers and lower wage workers overseas. That figure is lower than the poverty level set by the U.S. government for a family of four. Much of the criticism has focused on wages at companies such as Amazon, as lack of upward mobility is a major issue in the U.S. - growing worse over two decades of tech advances, also carrying with it literacy levels for children which have also deteriorated. ...

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The comparison by Goldsmith and Moyn has picked the wrong Roosevelt. Only Washington in the war of independence, Lincoln in the Civil War over slavery, and FDR Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the Great Depression and economic collapse, fall in that category and there is no one and nothing to compare with both the struggles they fought and the challenge to the survival of the US. On the next scale comes TR Teddy Roosevelt, and this is the Roosevelt to compare DJT with. TR was unconventional, TR spoke a different language and could be frank and outspoken. TR actions matched his words, as his days on the Indian frontier and with the Rough Riders. TR also had one term plus completing McKinley's term after his assasination. And TR like DJT did not like his successor and did everything to make the comeback denouncing the policies of his successor William Howard Taft in the 1912 election, which TR lost to Democrat Woodrow Wilson. All this is true for DJT in 2026. TR denounced the shift away from his "progressive policies" and the shift to corporate interests of Republican Taft. In this sense also DJT is similar as he denounced the shift to corporate interests of the Bush/Clinton/Bush/Obama years. TR was no country club Republican and was willing to confront opponents in the politics to fight for the benefit of the working man, splitting the Republican party in the process. This is true of DJT. TR launched the rebuilding of the Navy, and announced he would reassert the Monroe Doctrine. DJT is doing the same and is reasserting the Monroe Doctrine. One could say that DJT feels the hidden TR in him and like Teddy Roosevelt is putting America in the place it once was. For TR the industrial revolution had distorted a country founded on the backs of settlers owning the land independent and rugged, as industry turned the country into corporate interests and workers in factories with few rights, and poor working conditions and wages. This TR even as a Republican fought to reverse. In DJT there is the Republican also of a different mould who fights to reverse the situation created by Bush/Clinton/Bush/ Obama over three decades since the 1990's when America has fallen to new lows when drug trafficking gangs in Mexico and Venezuela are able to run rampant over the western hemisphere, when elites in Canada and the US act impotent in the face of this, or living in their own world away from the streets and neighborhoods of America devastated by drug trafficking, towns and neighborhoods from Janesville to Flint economically deprived as elites shifted manufacturing overseas to China in complete indifference to the American worker and his family, and carried out wars in remote parts of the world such as hills of Afghanistan and deserts of Iraq no worker or farmer in America had even heard of or cared about since the American continent was settled in 1600. If there is a Woodrow Wilson around the corner who won in 1912, for the 2028 election, then it is someone who like Wilson will take policies to benefit the American worker and farmer and his family, and America as a Nation to a better place over the next decade. A passage from Teddy Roosevelt from his Autobiography about who TR was struggling against illustrates this point- "They favored Civil Service Reform; they favored copyright laws, and the removal of tariffs on works of art; they favored all the proper (and even more strongly the improper ) movements for international peace and arbitration; in short, they favored all good and many goody-goody, measures so long as they did not cut deep into social wrong or make demands on National and individual virility. They opposed, or were lukewarm, about efforts to build up the army and the navy, for they were not sensitive regarding National honor, and above all they opposed every non-milk-and-water effort, however sane to change our social and economic system in such a fashion as to substitute the ideal of justice towards all for the ideal of kindly charity from the favored few to the possibly grateful many." (Theodore Roosevelt, Autobiography, Chapter 5 title: Applied Idealism, 1913) ...

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A Delaware judge rescinds a compensation agreement for Elon Musk saysing he is too close to directors on the Board. The compensation $55.8 billion, a number that is a reflection of how how deep the swing has been from the FDR.Truman/Eisenhower/Kennedy period to the Reagan/Clinton/Obama era when the United Auto Workers are just coming out of wages close to the poverty line in 2024 and Tesla workers encouraged by the UAW agreement are pushing for better wages in Europe. The hidden truth is that just as there was a consensus in the country, and from Republicans and Democrats in one direction there has been a consensus in the completely opposite direction, this time flawed and dangerous by not giving workers the benefits of their hard work and long hours during the pandemic and after. As public awareness increases a new consensus and culture is emerging supported by the words and message of Abe Lincoln and going back to George Washington's warnings about extremes and lack of fairness. ...

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For the first time the number of people vaccinated in a single state in India reaches 40 million. In Maharashtra state in western India, with state capital Mumbai, the vaccinations crossed 40 million on July 20, 2021, according to the state's Additional Chief Secretary for Health. India has vaccinated 410 million people by July 20, 2021. About 3 million people are getting vaccinations daily.

Maharashtra was one of the top 5 states in the first and second waves of the coronavirus in India. About 2 million healthcare and front line workers have been fully vaccinated in Maharashtra. Maharashtra has a 2021 population of about 125 million according to Aadhar and is the second most populous state in India after UP which has an effective vaccination drive. 

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US economic growth was 2.8% in the second quarter 2024 with broad based growth in consumer spending, business investment and government infrastructure spending, Commerce Department shows. Inflation and consumer prices went down from 3.4% in the first quarter 2024 to 2.6%. This is a good sign for the economy's resilience. Yet housing costs are high and families are struggling with high cost of rentals. This applies to moderate and low income families who are struggling. Consumers have kept on spending because unemployment is low  buyers face lower inflation, and wage growth is higher than inflation. For the second quarter of 2024 after tax income adjusted for inflation was 1%.

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A threefold increase in immigration to meet staff and labour shortages makes using immigration as an issue in the next election risky for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives in Britain. In a strange twist it is the Conservatives under Boris Johnson who campaigned on immigration  to take Britain out of the EU now having a record on immigration of this kind. In 2019 Sunak battlecry " get Brexit done" was for lower immigration from a level of 245,000 that year. In 2022 it was a net migration of 720,000 for Britain. Most of this has come from student, work and family visa routes, and legal asylum channels from Ukraine Hong Kong and Afghanistan. Now economists believe it is a result of shortages of labour and staff, and high domestic wages.

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How union membership is actively taking part in shaping union contracts at Longshoreman's union for US ports, UAW for autoworkers, at Boeing Southwest and other companies for a fair wage and benefits after decades of neglect of workers. The assistance of Biden/ Harris to workers and their families for "We the People," in 2024.

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A comprehensive study on immigration's impact on the U.S. by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine in 2016, looks at the broad fiscal and economic impacts of immigration. On the drawbacks the new immigrants can lead to lower wages for earlier waves of immigrants and high school dropouts. It can also burden government finances, education budgets at local and state levels. On the plus side it leads to more innovation, entrepreneurship and technological change in the economy. Other facts that are new in the report and run against the popular narrative are that 53% of immigrants had at least some college, including 16% with graduate education, as of 2012- which explains the technological impact of being open to immigrants. It is this that helps lift overall growth says the report- "the prospects for long run economic growth in the United States would be considerably dimmed without the contributions of high-skilled immigrants." About 42.3 million immigrants live in the U.S. in 2014, 13% of the population, increasing from 24.5 million or 9% in 1995. Unauthorized immigrants doubled in this period to 11 million.  A surprising result considering the popular idea of anti-immigrant sentiment in the U.S. is that a WSJ/NBC poll shows 54% of respondents saying immigration helps more than it hurts. In 2006 only 45% to 42%, considered immigration as beneficial to the country. Immigration is an issue today even though in recent years the large scale deportations under the Obama administration and difficulty finding jobs have reduced the flow of immigrants - since 2009 about 300,000-400,000 new unauthorized immigrants arriving and similar number leaving.   ...

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The U.S. unemployment rate drops from 5.8% in Nov. 2014 to 5.6% in Dec. 2014, according to the Labor Department. But hourly earnings failed to register growth. Average hourly earnings declined in Dec. 2014 from the prior month, and increased by only 1.7% over the prior year, just a little bit above the inflation rate of 1.3%. Overall 2.95 million jobs were created in 2014. Yet 8.7 million Americans looking for a job could not find one. The U.S. Federal Reserve officials see tepid wage growth as a sign of slack in the labor market. The Dec. 16-17 Fed meeting minutes show that "most participants saw no clear evidence of a broad based acceleration in wages." The labor force participation rate is also stuck at a low level- 62.7% in Dec. 2014. The U-unemployment rate that includes involuntary part time workers and workers marginally attached to the labor force was at 11.2% in Dec. 2014. This includes workers too discouraged to look for work and people working parttime because they could not get full time work. It is steadily dropping from 16.6% in 2010 to 14.4% by 2012, 13.1% by 2013, and now 11.2% in 2014, showing steady improvement but still high....

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US-Swiss trade deal November 2025 for 15% US tariff in exchange for $200 billion in investment in US. This includes access to Swiss markets for the US. The agreement also will let in dairy products and chocolate to the US at 15% tariff to reduce cost of living concerns. Swiss dairy producers and chocolate makers are likely to bear most of the 15% tariff burden because of higher margins. The $2000 rebate to all Americans from tariffs is a good idea of the DJT administration to give Americans protection from the smaller share of the tariffs that are passed on to consumers that are not borne by the producers exporting to the US. Overall in that situation the US will benefit in the restructuring of world trade that the DJT administration will have accomplished without hurting American consumers and bringing large scale investment into the US for jobs and higher wages. This is the part of the DJT Deal that could help America rebuild its manufacturing and economy in new ways.  ...

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It is not a story that most people grasp or understand- the long term effects of the US immigration surge of 2023 and its source mostly from Venezuela. The  US Congressional Budget Office says labor force in 2033 ten years from now will be larger by 5.2 million people and younger as a result of the immigration surge in 2023 from about 1 million immigrants each year in the 2010's to 3.3 million. About 2.5 million crossed the southwestern border in 2023. Much of it the result of the collapse of the Venezuelan economy and its middle and upper classes leaving the country. This was worsened by the US sanctions on the Maduro government including under president Trump, say experts in an adjoining NYT article on the 7 million people who left Venezuela to go to Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and Chile since 2012, then making their way up the Darien Gap to the US. Something that could have happened under a Republican president if the US Congress could not reach bipartisan agreement on correcting asylum and parole policy. As a result of this surge US Gross Domestic Product  in 2033 will be 3% larger. When the large Asian economies are seeing a aging workforce, Japan for the last decade and China now following Japan, the US labor force will be younger than it would be without this unusual surge in immigration of the last 2 years. The federal deficit will be smaller at 6.4% instead of 7.3% in 2033 as immigrants will pay taxes on income. Another aspect of this larger infusion of immigrants is that after the pandemic shut down immigration entirely there were severe shortages in the hospitality and restaurant, construction, healthcare industries. And with the trillions of dollars in investment that the Biden administration is making with more factories - this will absorb most of the immigrant surge by 2033. With some positive effects in the competition with rising Asian economies China and India. Particularly consider with the younger demographic India of 1.4 billion people. It will mean more factories can be built in the US and there will be workers for these factories in the US at wages that keep the US economy competitive years from now in 2033. This is a sobering aspect of the current situation viewed from what will be seen by America's younger generation. And under the bipartisan compromise in Congress correcting asylum and parole policy that was shut down by the former president, Republican senators understood very well that the immigration surge of 2023 would have some constructive effects for the long term, while its effects on the short term would be mitigated by Biden's commitment to close the border in 2024. This did not happen, yet the future for America's younger generation is bright under the Biden plan for massive investment in manufacturing and jobs in the US, and with the millions of immigrants needed to fill the jobs that investment will create by 2033. It will make America with a younger work force than Europe or China, only India having a younger workforce in 2033. ...

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A useful look at all demographic groups age, race and gender in 2024 compared to 2020 and 2016 offered by DW.com. There is higher participation today in the process of choosing candidates than ever before even as mediums including the internet have become increasingly fragmented. Candidates in 2024 have to reach many smaller groups of demographics by race, gender, education, ages groups over television and radio than ever before. 

244 million people over the age of 18 will participate in choosing between Harris and Trump in 2024 and for the US Congress.

71% of white voters voted compared to 59% for non white voters. Only 54% of Latinos voted in 2020. Youngest voters 18 years to 29 years participation in 2016 was very low just 39%, it increased to 50% in 2020. 

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Alluring scenery but hollowing out. Rail station in Dunedin New Zealand looks like it is from the 19th or early 20th century. New Zealand wages are 27% lower than Australian wages in 2025. New Zealand's weak, economy cuts in public services in 2025 affect jobs and employment. New Zealand sees emigration of 69,000 for the year to Feb 2025, highest on record.  Australia has mining and huge demand from China and India for its coal to support it's economy. In a paradox black coal in the interior supports a healthy lifestyle with weather and sports in the coastal belt of Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney, and further up the coastline in Perth and Adelaide. New Zealand life means higher grocery prices and less quality than Australia, it means health services are not as good, and the public services are being cut to reduce the deficit and borrowing. Most migration is to Auckland and towns in the interior look scenic such as Dunedin but are increasingly seeing people leaving for lack of prospects, lack of pay raises and high cost of living, poor public services. This is a cycle that was felt in 2002 and goes back a long way and is unlikely to change. ...

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Consumer spending in the US is up for Christmas 2021 with 5.8 million more US jobs in October than a year earlier, with higher wage checks and stimulus checks, child tax credit payments, all boosting spending power. With 231 million Americans vaccinated with at least one shot compared to none Christmas last year more Americans are in stores. Shopping online is up only 7%, in store retail sales up 14%, according to Commerce Department. Passenger traffic on interstate highways is back up to where it was before the pandemic.

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Research from Australian National University shows steadily improving conditions for migrant workers in China. Migrant workers were able to spend more time in cities- an average of 8.9 years. The hukou sysem ensures migrants return to rural areas when they have to raise a family. About 252 million migrant workers work in factories and construction jobs in urban areas. Migrants with children leave them with grandparents back home. Improving the conditions of these workers is important to reduce the wage and income disparities in China and to reduce inequality. About a fifth of the migrant population now has pension and health benefits. Creating a balanced economy with domestic consumer spending making a larger share of GDP also requires improving wages and benefits of migrant workers. Incoming prime minister Li Keqiang says in a statement on a government website: China "must take migrant rural workers and gradually change them into urban residents. This requires that we push forward household registration reform." If done seriously this will create a new kind of China as these migrant workers are integrated into urban society after years of being shunned and ignored by China's educated middle class. Professor Meng's research at Australian National University of migrant workers shows the proportion of migrant workers with unemployment insurance increased from 11% in 2008 to 21% in 2012. The research shows similiar figures for health and pensions. Improving their living standards also make it attractive for more young people from rural areas to migrate to cities increasing urbanization....

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Harris pragmatic approach and willingness to try new solutions applies to Michigan- to find ways to protect union jobs and make the transition to clean cars in a way that increases wages and jobs and creates a bright future for the auto industry. Letting other countries manufacture EV's would hand over the manufacturing technologies to say China and lead to a future collapse of the auto industry in Michigan. This is why there is a transition period which is flexible to 2030 or even 2034, and the curve is for more gains in EV sales in the latter years as prices come down and technology improves. At every step of the way business presents unique challenges, and FDR/Harris "persistent bold experimentation" is part of the answer as China's BYD has come up with a better cheaper in house battery that means it can export EV's at lower prices- the US can't as yet. Electric vehicles sales are plateauing in 2024 growing from 7.4% to 7.8%. The former president describes an EV mandate. No EV mandate for all cars to be electric exists. The action taken by president Biden is for all cars to meet greenhouse gas emission targets that would require 50 percent of cars to be electric vehicles by 2030. Michigan as the home of the auto industry is heavily influenced by the auto industry. Biden walked the picket line here last year to support a UAW strike for higher wages after decades of concessions by workers that reduced wages to near the poverty level for families.  Harris pragmatic approach and willingness to try new solutions applies to Michigan- to find ways to protect union jobs and make the transition to clean cars in a way that increases wages and jobs and creates a bright future for the auto industry. Letting other countries manufacture EV's would hand over the manufacturing technologies to say China and lead to a future collapse of the auto industry in Michigan. This is why there is a transition period which is flexible to 2030 or even 2034 an the curve is for more gains in EV sales in the latter years as prices come down and technology improves. At every step of the way business presents unique challenges and innovation is part of the answer as China's BYD has come up with a better in house battery that means it can export EV's- the US can't as yet. ...

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This article in Zeit Online emphasizes that the deep sense of unease and anxiety about the future among working class white people is behind the shift in American politics. This shift has a lot to do with the basic identity of the U.S., the borders, and  the ability to generate decent jobs at decent wages. The populous states of the midwest in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin helped tilt the outcome to Trump. It is pointed out that this shift is not simply a result of tax breaks for wealthy people and corporations. It goes a lot deeper than that- a growing anxiety about identity, borders and decent wages with decent jobs is what worries non college educated people who make up a larger proportion of voters in some midwestern and eastern states. Democrats also put themselves in an unsustainable position by pushing trade agreements such as TPP as an Obama legacy- even in the face of strong evidence that core working class Democratic voters, unions, and other working class groups had fervently opposed it. It is not that there are fewer liberals today- about 21% in 2012 and the same in 2016. Simply that the anxiety was too high about issues such as borders, identity, and manufacturing jobs that Democrats lost sight of. ...

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The US is on track to bring back 350,000 jobs in 2022 that were taken overseas during the two decades of hyper growth in China, according to the Reshoring Initiative. A false idea was created mostly by economists and business that shifted jobs to China during two Democratic and one Republican administration, the Clinton, Obama and the Bush administrations, that this would benefit the American workers and families through lower prices at the retail level. It ignored the severe damage this would do to jobs, incomes and whole communities when factories on which they depended for a living were shipped overseas. It damaged labor in ways that destroyed much of the American working class and the families built during the years of FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson. Business failed during this period to meet the challenge of higher American wages and productivity issues by using innovation and other steps to keep manufacturing at home.  This led to the hyper growth that did not benefit China, because a moderate pace of growth would have helped China control the rampant contamination of its air, water and soil. It also was leading China to a dead end reached during the 2016 election campaign with the election of president Trump with deep discontent from workers in midwestern states. The pandemic simply underscored the need for supply chains that were close to home and reliable in crises. By 2020 president  Biden was committing to a restructuring of the supply chains and pushing forward with it with legislation in the $369 billion Climate bill, and SCIENCE and Chips Act, to make solar panels, semiconductors and other products in the US. Reports from China showed that growth was slight or flat during 2022 and youth unemployment at 20%. The policy was to shift people back from the cities to the rural areas and support the informal economy, a sense of nationalist sentiment, and preparing for a future where the supply chain for the US and the European Union had moved away from China. In the long run the policies now look as ones that benefitted neither the US, the European Union, India or China.  ...

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China's July 2012 exports were up barely by 1%, over the same month prior year. Exports to the European Union declined by 16.2%. A big problem is cost increases for land, labor and electricity. By 2004 China's exports were growing at a peak rate of 35%. Since then prices of inputs have increased- wages by 150%, land by 70%, and electricity prices by 30%, according to Dragonomics. The yuan appreciated by 30%. Productivity is increasing by about 8% a year, according to the World Bank. As a result of the price increases of inputs the competitiveness of China, with products exported mainly on the basis of price, is deteriorating.

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Mohammed Siraj dismisses Jamie Overton after his two boundaries brought England close to the winning score, and in the final ball of the Test series on August 4, 2025, he knocks off Atkinson's wicket to give India a win for the ages by 7 runs- similar to one in which Gary Sobers played for West Indies vs Australia in which the margin was zero runs, the Test tied on December 14, 1960.

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Millenials group ages 18-49 who have decided to have zero children post pandemic is growing, as shown in this story in The Washington Post- with many graphs about what is really happening. A 2021 Pew Research poll shows 44% of childless adults ages 18-49 saying they do not want kids, or are not likely to have kids. This is up from 37% in 2018. And 56% of these people simply give no reason, just that- no kids. The difficult economic environment is part of this, so is the difficulty in raising kids that do better than their parents, the huge resources needed to raise good kids, all leading to this view among millenial women.

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Stellantis reports a loss of $750 million on sales of 41 billion euros for third quarter 2023. As a company with operations distributed evenly all over the world Stellantis suffered smaller losses than GM and Ford. GM's losses of profit were $1.3 billion and Ford's $800 million. From the point of view of workers who want a settlement for fair wages in a cost of living crisis keeping losses sustained by the car company to a minimum so that the industry as a whole does better is important, because when the companies do better so do workers and management. 

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Brazil's unemployment rate dropped slightly in 2013 to 5.4% from 5.5% in 2012, according to Brazil's Institute for Geography and Statistics. Fewer people are entering the workforce as Brazil's population ages, which has helped keep labor markets tight even with a low rate of job creation. Industrial jobs have declined as a share of overall employment after the recent consumer boom in Brazil. More service jobs are being created than industrial jobs as a result of a stronger currency. GDP growth was less than 3%, according to the statistics agency. Higher inflation constrains growth and the central bank increased the interest rate by 0.5% to 10.5%. Wages have kept up with inflation as the average monthly wage increased by 1.8% after inflation to 1,929 reais ($798) for the ninth year. President Rousseff's Worker's party has governed Brazil since Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva became president in 2003. She is likely to be reelcted in this year's elections as polls show her support at 47%. The lower middle classes which benefitted as the middle class expanded in Brazil supports Rousseff. ...