LyrArc Article Gist
The Biden administration has limited the conflict in the Middle East through maintaining relations with the government in Tehran. Now more than ever there is a need for the kind of stable well thought out policy in the long term interests of all nations including the US, Europe, China and India for a peaceful solution to conflicts- this is being pursued by the Biden administration. It is possible because president Biden has focused on economic growth for all and extracted America from the entanglements in the Middle East in Iraq and Afghanistan that have undone previous presidents and US development.

LyrArc Article Gist
Iran's economy following the naval blockade- WSJ cites assessment by Miad Maleki who led Treasury's sanctions campaign on Iran in 2025. Loss of $435 million of economic activity per day and oil shut ins in 2 weeks. As the Europeans sit out this naval blockade and US rethinks its participation in NATO, as the poorer countries in the world are affected by the shortages including Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and others around the world, the one baffling aspect is how far a nation (Iran)could let its economic prospects be affected to continue uranium enrichment. It is about the failure of another Middle Eastern nation to modernize and improve the living standards of its people, (after Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Syria and Iraq),  wasting a once in a centuries opportunity to do this wasting an oil dividend that will only last to 2035 when renewable energy may replace fossil fuels. Instead leaving the region with intermittent wars and destruction from the wars since 1950, falling behind in a world that is rapidly modernizing in China and India with about 3 billion people committed to modernization. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The reduction in tensions between the U.S. and Iran after the beginning of talks in Istanbul in April 2012. Other factors include differences within Iranian leadership and government leading to more flexible positions and differences within the Israeli leadership. Iranian and Israeli public opinion is moving in the direction of moderate positions.

LyrArc Article Gist
Iraq as two states in one now dragged into Iran War by Iran sponsored Popular Mobilization Forces that are part of the two state government. It points to a never ending conflict in this region, even after Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq. Finding alternative sources of oil and accelerating renewable energy are ways to stay away from the Middle East, easier to accomplish through innovation and rapid progress than sourcing oil from the region.  Irreconciliable differences between religious sects complicated further by the artificial countries created of Syria and Iraq created by the British and French Empires from the ruins of the Ottoman Empire by 1921 are enough reason to stay out of the Middle East conflicts for the US, Russia, India, China, the European Union.  The British and French colonial powers that drew up the map of Iraq and Syria created states with different populations that made no difference to them in 1921, but which create unmanageable and impossible to run states today. This is learning from the bitter experience of 50 years of conflict and wars that led through war distraction to deindustrialization of the US and European Union, and consequently to the tariff wars with China, a process that is still unwinding today. The US is better off developing new oil supplies as it considers another push in renewable energy, the EU, China and India have the resources to make a new push for renewable energy and efficient use of energy similar to Germany and Japan, using additional supplies from the US as a transition point. Imagine combining the energy technological innovation that is a bigger motivation combining the scientific minds and resources of China, Japan, India, the US and Europe, than the dislocation and internal strife inside these countries that is generated from the Middle East -that is itself the legacy of irrational decisions made by colonial powers of the 1920's,  1930's and 1940's that remain a hundred years later- impossible to resolve except by working with new solutions for energy outside of the region. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. strengthens its forces in the Persian Gulf to keep open the Straits of Hormuz, especially to block any effort by Iran to mine the narrow waters of the Strait. Saudi Arabian oil exports come through this waterway.

LyrArc Article Gist
Saying that these countries had significantly cut imports from Iran, the U.S. government gave exemptions from the sanctions on Iran to 10 European countries and Japan. Exemptions were given to Belgium, Britain, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain. This leaves 11 countries facing possible sanctions including China, India and S. Korea, with negotiations underway with these three major importers. The sanctions law passed by the U.S. Congress gives the government room to avoid damage to global oil markets and U.S. allies.

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. Gen. James Mathis is troubled by the results of an Internal Look military planning exercize of war with Iran in the Persian Gulf . The two week military exercize concluded in early March 2012. The exercize showed the unpredictable and uncontrollable chain of events once a conflict started.

LyrArc Article Gist
Us bombs Kharg Island 15 miles from Iran mainland where most of Iran oil is transported by pipeline from oil fields, then loaded and shipped on oil tankers.90% of Iran oil exports are shipped from Kharg.

LyrArc Article Gist
Foreign Minister Wang Yi of China says DJT and XI have "set an example" through their efforts and communication and "put [China-US] relations back on the right track after ups and downs." This sets the stage for the US president to visit China on March 31 -April 2, even as the US and Israel are at war with Iran over its use of ballistic missile programs and development of nuclear weapons. The US president also says he has talked to president Putin of Russia recently on March 9, saying that Putin has offered his help.

LyrArc Article Gist
The WSJ's Laurence Norman talks to Yukiya Amano, head of the UN agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which has the responsibility of verification and inspection of Iran's nuclear development and facilities. Amano describes the issues raised by a 2011 report which outlined 12 sets of concerns to which Iran has to explain, a condition included in the final nuclear agreement. Iran has to respond by mid-August, IAEA then responds, and does work in Sept and Oct, and submits its report by Dec. 2015. Yamano says he has to fill in all the missing pieces in this jigsaw puzzle to get a full picture of Iran's nuclear development. Iran has denied access to military sites and Mr. Amano couldn't say if he has access to the Parchin military site. A concession that was made in the agreement is the long interval of three weeks before access to a particular site that arouses suspicions-the agreement gives Iran the right to appeal an IAEA request to visit such a site to a special commission. The U.S. and its European allies have a majority on the commission yet three weeks are allowed in which Iran could move material to some other location. For critics the question will be why such a concession was needed if Iran truly has decided not to develop nuclear weapons technologies. The U.S. president's response at a news conference on July 15, 2015, was that with the laws of physics the U.S. monitoring tools would detect nuclear activity at that site. The agreement also gives Iran an earlier than planned lifting of a ban on sales of arms and missiles and missile parts if the IAEA says Iran's nuclear activities are peaceful. Iran could conceivably wait till the ban is lifted and its economy in a much stronger position to withstand any future limited sanctions to pursue nuclear weapons development. This would have delayed development for a few years during which time the hope is that Iran has changed into a more peaceful nation pursuing economic development in its region, yet even if this is the case as as happened with India and Pakistan it could still pursue nuclear weapons development. The alternative is a status quo till a better agreement is reached with the leverage of tight economic sanctions and continuing dialogue during which time Iran continues to get closer to a nuclear weapon, or the use of force to prevent this. Iran added the arms embargo issue during the last weeks of the negotiation in June, a controversial move on Iran's part, as this may have complicated the picture with ballistic missiles technology exports to Iran approved after 8 years in the final agreement, compared to the agreement reached in April 2015 which made no mention of the lifting of the arms embargo. Iran played on the notion that if Zarif returned to Iran without an agreement hardliners including Khamanei would veto any agreement, yet this could just be the Iranian negotiating strategy. U.S. president Obama stated at the July 15, 2015 news conference that it would be hard to hold sanctions for longer. Critics might argue that China was already benefitting from the small easing of sanctions by increasing Iranian oil imports by 30% in 2014, and would have less incentive to withdraw from sanctions, as it is dependent on the U.S. and the EU, major markets for its exports and access to technologies. A WSJ/NBC poll in July shows almost half of the people polled in the U.S. saying they do not know enough to express an opinion, a steady 36% support an agreement, showing that the public has not been educated and taken along during the different steps in the largely secret negotiations....

LyrArc Article Gist
India has reduced imports of oil from Iran from 12% in 2011 to about 9% by the end of April, 2012. A senior state department official from the U.S., Carlos Pascual, will be in India in mid May 2012 to assess the energy situation and see what specific energy facilities in India need to do. Some of the refineries in India are designed to handle only the kind of heavy oil Iran supplies. For the U.S. the issue is keeping up the pressure on Iran during the talks in Istanbul, Turkey, on Iran's nuclear program. For India it has the vital trade and economic relationship with the U.S. balanced against cultural ties to the region and the need for oil supplies.

LyrArc Article Gist
Russia ships nuclear fuel, the uranium fuel rods for the Bushehr nuclear plant in Iran, two weeks after the new US intelligence estimate on Iran, after stalling for some time. The Bushehr plant will be under the inspection supervision and control of the Atomic Energy Agency, and Russia has obtained guarantees that the AEA will be allowed to ensure that the fuel will only be used for the power plant. Note that the U.S. was informed two weeks ago about this, and the U.S. quietly supported the idea now with the idea that it encourages Iran to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. What it does is to change the whole picture about Iran as a threat to peace in the Middle East. See the article about Khatami, former President's comments at the University of Tehran, recent link, and the Democrats asking for diplomatic solutions to the differences between Iran and the U.S. The Bush administration tacitly following this path after a lot of rhetoric. Oil prices escalated in late 2007 because there was uncertainty about where this might lead. This situation is now reversed. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Hubbard and Erdbrink report on U.S. president Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia to begin a new chapter in relations with the Gulf nations and the Saudis. Under president Obama the U.S. distanced itself from the Saudis and the Gulf nations, preferring to pursue a policy of closer relations with Iran and signing the Iran nuclear deal. This included a policy of staying out of Syria to the point of turning down a decision to deploy U.S. airpower to maintain no-fly zones to protect refugees. Syrian government forces fighting rebels were supported by Iran. The new policy is dictated by the new conditions in the Middle East. The U.S. has sought since the presidency of Reagan to balance the power relations in the region. With the nuclear deal signed and Iran respecting the deal according to independent reports, the U.S. allied with Iran in the battle against Islamic State in Iraq,  a shift was needed to balance the support provided to Iran by Russia which worsened the refugee crisis in Syria. The Republican party and Mr. Trump were critical of the Obama Iran policy during the nuclear deal negotiations. The safety of Israel is also a factor as non-state actors were supported by Iran threatening Israeli security. For these reasons the shift is an effort to rebalance the relations in the region. The arms deal in its size and president Trump's statement that Iran had "fueled the fires of sectarian conflict and terror," can be seen as this rebalancing. A business aspect of the large arms deal is that it will promote job growth in the defense industry in the U.S.. Other countries including Germany have seen growth in their defense industry. This is not the best way forward for the Middle East, yet it is a way the U.S. and nations in the region are adjusting to realities- the collapse of the Arab Spring from within and without the help from outside, the sectarian conflict arising from the Shiite pushback from Iran following the Baathist and Sunni control of Iraq which collapsed with the U.S.invasion, where the majority of people are Shiite yet with a strong Sunni presence. Elections brought Shiites in power, leading to a Sunni response in the form of Islami State caliphate move into Mosul, Iraq's second largest city after Baghdad. A decade of conflict and the efforts by the Bush administration ended in failure and sectarian conflict, resulting in the U.S. policy of rebalancing in favor of Iran to negotiate the nuclear deal. In this sense the arms deal does not solve anything. A similar rebalancing under Reagan by arming one side, followed by arming the other, led to involvement with ground forces under president Bush. It only leaves the region poor after years of sanctions against Iran to the point where a NYT reporter was not sure whether it was safe to fly from Tehran to Mashad with Iran Air because of the lack of spare parts for the airline. War torn, with millions of refugees in Syria and Iraq, the region remains broken in many ways, waiting for a sensible non sectarian view to prevail in the interest of the people in the region. The election of Rouhani in Iran by 57% of the vote is only a sign that young people in the region given a chance would opt for a different course in future. The rest of Asia has moved forward and shows a path that can be followed. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Guardian gives this story of Khamanei's rule in Iran after 1989. He was made president in 1981 in a landslide win at that time just 2 years after the revolution in 1979 that toppled the Shah of Iran's monarchial regime. Khamanei comes from a the family of a modest cleric in the town of Mashaad who was immersed in the anticolonial writings coming out of Arab North Africa's liberation movements. His policy towards Israel and the US, difficult relations with Arab countries in the neighborhood, and pursuit of nuclear weapons technologies, led Iran to become isolated and face sanctions that hurt its economy and its oil industry for three decades. It created its own version of governing and in setting up proxy militias but this resulted in huge investments diverted from the economy of Iran, neglect of its oil industry and production under western sanctions, that led to economy collapsing and student protests every decade. This expanded in 2025 to broad sections of the population calling for a new direction. Protests were suppressed leading to a disconnect with the people by 2026. To truly understand Iran one has to step back to the 1900's ( as one must also do to understand China or India), as Iran was ruled by the Qajar dynasty at the time. The first Majlis parliament was set up in Iran in 1906 -with the help of "good" Britishers like the British agent in Rajkot who helped send Gandhi to London to study law- wished to see a constitutional setup similar to Britain and limit the powers of the monarchy so that reforms in agriculture and in the civil service could be made. It lasted until 1908. At the time other Britishers in the British Empire both in India and in London sought to maintain British influence and keep out Russian influence. It was not a coincidence that the Majlis lasted only till 1908. That year in 1908 the first discovery of oil in West Asia was made in Khozestan province by George Reynolds, with investor backing of William D'Arcy. The following year 1909 the Anglo-Persian Oil Company( later Anglo Iranian Oil Company and later British Petroleum) was formed. The oil concession was given by the Shah from Qajar dynasty. From that time on Iran became the scene of oil company interests, monarchial interests first under Qajar dynaasty and then under Pahlavis dynasty (which set itself up like Napoleon II in France from humble origins, after 1925 to replace the Qajar dynasty), and the emerging middle class lawyer and civil service, agricultural landowners class, all competing for power and influence in a Asian region with Shihite Islamic embedded in the fabric of the society. Power swung to different groups from 1925 onwards for 5 decades to the 1979 revolution that overthrew the Pahlavi temporary replacement monarchy that worked with British oil interests. West Asia became a meeting point for anticolonial writings emerging from Arab North Africa and other places that took the form of and led to a socialist style anticolonial Baathist influnce that overthrew a monarchy in Baghdad Iraq in the "Free Officers" coup of June 14, 1958 led by Karim Kassem. Out of that Pan Arabic Iraqi mood emerged S. Hussein who with weapons systems imported from the US and Europe initiated the war with Iran in 1980. The Iranian counterrevolutionary movement to Iraq began from that time with the leadership of Khomeni and Khameni from 1981. This is what one has seen swing back and forth in the West Asian region for about 5 decades to 2026, the regional Arab states mostly Sunni monarchies ranged against Iran with its Shiite and also modernizing population. US oil interests in Arab monarchies of the West Asian region from the time of FDR's meeting with Saudi's Faisal in the WWII period clashed with Iranian public interests competing with oil interests (US and British) allied to monarchial interests, and the emergence of Shiite Islamic authority in Iran in these clashes. Iranian public interests that started out with the Majlis and parliaments set up by the "good Britishers" never got a chance in Iran just as the modernizing effort of Sun Yat Sen in China in the 1900's never got a chance in the middle of the surviving monarchy in China by 1910, and the Japanese colonial interests in China from that time competing with the Nationalists Koumintang and the Communist Chinese workers movements emerging in the 1930's, all competing for influence during the Chinese civil war and in its aftermath the emergence of Mao and the CCP of China. This is the situation we in the world face today. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
DJT and US diplomacy given a chance, patient waiting for Iran to make a unified proposal with split in Iran government, while the US naval blockade goes on- April 21 2026. About 2 million people lose their jobs in Iran as inflation exceeds 50% and economic activity, steel, car making and petrochemical industries are affected with major disruptions and supply chain issues.

LyrArc Article Gist
Iran War talks in Islamabad on Day 12 of US Naval Blockade of Iran April 25, 2026. Kushner and Witkoff go to Islamabad.

LyrArc Article Gist
Iranian public reaction to the air strikes Feb 28 2026 and death of Khamanei- within Iran disconnect with the government policies and economic hardship. Outside Iran a similar situation with open expression unfolds. Iranian diaspora pubic reaction to US strikes on Iran and death of Khamanei March 1 2026 following protests in Iran in February, is covered in the Washington Post. There are about 1 million Iranian refugees in US and Germany alone and another 1 million in Arab countries Kuwait, UAE and Turkey. And half a million in Sweden and Canada, 250,000 in Israel.