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The US supports F-16 training for Ukrainian pilots. Initial training showed Ukrainian pilots able to learn flying the planes in just 4 months. President Biden made this decision and informed G7 leaders in Hiroshima. Biden also agreed to NATO allies transferring F16s to Ukraine. The changes are coming as Ukraine launches a counter offensive against Russian occupation of parts of the country in the east and south. This report says the idea behind it is that it would bring Russia to the negotiating table to arrange an armistice even though it does not settle the key issues behind the war. It would bring an end to the war through a cessation of hostilities. Tighter controls are also put on economic sanctions to limit Russian ability to finance the war without also seeing its effects.

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The US Air Force plans to order 100 planes of the B21 Stealth Bomber at $700 million each. This aircraft is made at Plant 21 in Palmdale, California. The development of this plane was kept hidden for seven years even to families with someone working at the plant. It is made by Northrop Grumman. The previous version of the plane was the B2 Spirit of which only 21 were made leading to a high cost of $2 billon per plane. These planes last for many years. The B52 bombers of the Vietnam era are still in use. Their cost is prohibitive for most countries. During the period after the collapse of the Soviet Union investment in these bombers declined. With new risks emerging for NATO in Europe and in Asia this aircraft is seen as an American deterrent.

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Senator Tom Cotton says in this op-ed article in the NYT that president Obama's inaction in the face of a chemical attack by the Syrian government in 2013 badly damaged American credibility in the world. Failing to act to prevent the extension of the conflict to civilian areas in 2013,  had many adverse consequences- it showed the U.S. lacking the determination to prevent the use of chemical weapons, worsened the refugee crisis in Europe, created the conditions in which the pro Brexit camp could use immigration as a major issue, left the Turkish government without the support it had counted on from NATO allies and facing the brunt of the refugee crisis by itself as it took a downward course. The U.S. has long held the position of being a force that stands up for the basic rights of human beings, alone of all countries it has felt that it had to act when acts of this nature are committed. In this sense more was lost than just the credibility with other countries, in some ways the light shining on the hill could no longer be seen in the world, bringing on a sense that some dark cloud had settled in. ...

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The German response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is to increase its spending on defense to over 2% of GDP.  An emotional Scholz told an extraordinary session of the German parliament - We have to ask ourselves: "What capacities does Putin's Russia have? And which capacities do we need to counter his threats?" "Putin wants to establish a Russian Empire... the question is... whether we can summon the strength to set boundaries to warmongers like Putin," said Scholz. Scholz said he would immediately invest 100 billion euros or $113 billion in weaponry. Mr. Scholz also announced concrete arms procurements including the decision to buy state-of-the art drones from Israel and F-35 warplanes from the US, which he said would be used to amplify NATO's nuclear deterrent against Russia. 

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Germany's views on DJT Putin meeting in Alaska- proceeding to next step of peace talks with European efforts to ensure a peace that holds. A failure by Ukrainian leaders to build a consensus for the foreign affairs of their country bordered by language and cultural ties to the east but wanting to be open to the west, its unique position after 1990 similar to how Austria navigated German language ties to Germany after 1945 but was outside NATO and carried on with an independent foreign affairs friendly with all sides. The Bush, Obama and Merkel administrations did not pay attention to this and made serious errors, leading to further wrong turns by Ukrainian leaders and Russian leaders for prolonged wars. This led to destabilization in the Middle East, in Latin America, and in Europe and the US around migrant flows, refugees, and local wars, with Russia, US and Europe local regimes acting as adversaries that had not happened in this way in the 1960's -1990 period. This is the mess that DJT and Merz are now having to untangle with the help of countries that suffered huge losses in the war Russia and Ukraine who now may have realized what went wrong and offer their cooperation to end the war. ...

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Polls before the election show the SPD Social Demcorats, Greens and the Die Linke combined have a small majority of votes in German elections. Die Linke is the left party from the days of the party that ruled the GDR German Democratic Republic or East Germany under communist rule. In Berlin, Bremen, and the east German state of Thuringia the Social Democrats SPD, Greens and De Linke have formed coalition governments. With the emergence of right wing AfD in East Germany, the De Linke has emerged as an alternative to the established parties and the AfD in eastern Germany. Federal governments are difficult to form with the De Linke because of historical opposition to NATO. This may change as two younger leaders are now leading the party and in other policies there is similarity between the democratic socialist views of De Linke, SPD and the environmental policies of the Greens. FDP policy has generally not favored policies that favor working class, infrastructure investment, childcare and other issues important to voters in this election. This leaves the De Linke as a more likely alternative for a Greens SPD coalition partner if it can change to be flexible about its views on NATO. Today policies of president Biden in the US are also friendly to workers and families. This makes such a coalition possible if the socialist parties of the De Linke change to get things done instead of staying on the fringes of government. ...

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This editorial in the WSJ says Europe should plan for expanding its role in defense, because the U.S voters in the primaries for both political parties appear to be calling for less U.S. engagement in the world. It says Trump, Sanders, and Clinton voters are moving towards less engagement, and calling for the U.S. to spend less in overseas engagements, more at home. It points out that only Britain, Estonia, Greece, Poland and the U.S. spend the 2% of GDP on defense that is considered a requirement for NATO membership.

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The talks for a peace settlement with the Taliban hosted in London in Feb. 2013 by Britain's prime minister, David Cameron. The talks were between Cameron, Pakistan's president Asif Zardari, and Afghanistan president Karzai. The effort is designed to prevent a civil war after the NATO and U.S. withdrawal in 2013-2014.

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During the early weeks of the Libyan people's struggle the Wall Street Journal was one of the rare voices that stood up for freedom in Libya, saying the U.S. had to have the will and was not so overstretched that it could make a difference working with its allies in NATO. It took some time for the Obama administration to make up its mind by which time the Gaddafi forces would have entered Benghazi. It was the leadership of Sarkozy of France and Cameron of Britain that made the decisive difference at the right time. And as the tide turned it was the young people of Libya who could be seen in the video footage who showed bravery against the organized heavily armed forces of the Gaddafi regime. The lesson from the U.S. support for the Libyan people's movement for democratic government is that the U.S. can make a moral difference and a strategic difference when it follows the right instincts that have guided the country since its founding.

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An historic milestone is reached in cooperation between NATO and Russia in setting up a anti-missile network that would protect all countries in Europe, including Russia as cooperation develops. An accord is reached between the US, Russia and the European countries. The threat is seen to be from Iran. Russia offers a full-fledged strategic partnership with NATO and the US. Russian President Medvedev says this should not be just a gesture in the direction of Russia to spare Russian feelings, while the rest of Europe tends to its own defenses working with the US.

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This response by experts on transatlantic relations rejects the other view expressed in Zeit Online that the U.S. under Trump remains estranged from Germany and the EU. These experts from the American Institute for German Contemporary Studies, American German Council, and Centers at John Hopkins and Georgetown for German Studies, reject the view that the Trump administration and Germany are that far apart on many issues as it appears from media coverage.  Foremost it points out that civil society relations are sound and growing. About 50 million Americans trace their descent to Germany, including president Trump, much larger to over half the U.S. population considering European descent. Much larger is the sense of a culturally shared future with the European Union, with the nations of Europe including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the nations of Eastern Europe, and Britain. The civil society relationships run deep in a way that is hardly affected by the Trump administration. Within the Trump administration the policies to Europe these experts remind the reader, are determined by the "adults" in the administration, who are senior members of the administration. This is a crucial point as Trump administration policy is not determined by the president's liking for tweets as much as by senior cabinet members Tillerson at the State Department, Gen. Mattis at Defense, Kelly at the White House, and senior members of Congress including Senators Corker and other senior committee members. This is why Republican Senator Kay Hutchinson was chosen as Ambassador to NATO. It should be noted in this context of German-EU relations in president Trump's first year that there was a period of German disillusionment with president Obama, exacerbated by the NSA spying on German chancellor Merkel and on the EU delegation to the UN, with president Obama's failure to offer any apology. Relations recovered from that low point. No one suggested that there be a German led decoupling of the EU with America at that low point, or at another low point in German-U.S. relations with the setup of American Pershing II nuclear missiles on German soil under the Reagan administration when there were large scale protests.  The American view that the U.S. should not have to shoulder major responsibilities for defense and foreign relations by itself is not new say these experts, and goes back to earlier administrations before Trump.  The experts argue for an active role by Germany with its partners in Europe for defense and foreign relations, which should not be seen as a result of U.S. pressure, only responding to the situation as it has evolved upto this time. Views on immigration are also changing with effort by the EU and Germany, France, to reduce immigration from the source countries in Africa, and the changing perceptions about uncontrolled immigration in Germany and France, say the authors. A coordinated policy towards Russia  is seen as not having changed. And much as a reset in relations was advocated by Obama in the first year of his first term, the current policy of the Trump administration to work with Russia to lower tensions can be seen in the same way say these experts, and not as a fundamental shift in American policy. The deep relationship of Germany and the EU with China is another positive aspect that will also help the U.S. in framing its own policies towards China. The German-American relationship, and the European Union relationship with the U.S.  is seen as basic to the values and interests of the U.S. and Europe. This relationship is too deep and supported by civil society and Congress, the Republican Party, and the Democratic Party, by large trade relationships, to be affected by temporary differences under any one administration. Even these differences are part of a larger debate that is part of dialogue on issues in a democratic society, sometimes raucous and loud, and could be welcomed and carefully channelled in constructive ways.     ...

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Simon Jenkins of The Guardian says it is time to clear some of the myths around migrants, tariffs, and NATO and in this way action by the current Republican administration can be a positive step. Jenkins says DJT is moving quickly in the first 100 Days because most presidents get only 2 years to make changes before losing the House or the Senate making legislation difficult to pass. If it appears that things are happening on many fronts too quickly that is just the nature of things under a democratic process where checks and balances mean all three parts of government- executive powers of the president are balanced by powers of Congress and of the Supreme Court. Jenkins points out that action on migrants with the unease about millions of migrants coming in illegally, putting tariff barriers to bring manufacturing back and rebuilding America's forgotten middle class, cutting the bureaucracy and misuse of funds, sending education back to the states, and rethinking NATO bringing Russia back into the community of nations, will have long term positive effects long after the chaotic nature that they appear in the news cycle and the media presentation has passed. He cites China being invited back into the community of nations under Nixon. And today disarmament possible only by working with Russia, when China is moving in the direction of increasing nuclear missiles with trouble spots in Taiwan. He does not mention the sending back of about 1 million people back to Mexico under President Eisenhower in Operation Wetback in 1954, Harry Truman a senator from Missouri who led the effort to cut waste and fraud in government spending in the Second World War, the ED Hirsch graph showing reading comprehension scores of American K-12 headed one way - straight down since the 1960's showing education is failing in the US and needs parents and states to come up with new solutions.   ...

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This article describes the increasing cooperation between Finland, Sweden and Norway. Compatibility between Swedish forces has been improved to the point that a Swedish squadron can easily be integrated into a NATO led operation. This improves NATO capabilities in the Baltic region as Russia expands its military presence. Sweden is officially neutral, yet its values and security challenges are the same as that of the rest of Europe.

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French president Macron fails to get president Xi of China to commit to changes in its policies towards Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Macron's visit as seen by the NYT only undermines the US policy and European Union policy that opposes the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. EU's Leyen also visits China at this time.  The relations between the US and European business with China expanded for two decades between 2000-2020. All three regions are heavily invested in each other. Decoupling is a gradual process and China sees the EU as an access point for technology and investment. The US has not decoupled from China even after moves in semiconductors and electric vehicles were made by president Biden. Apple and other American companies are heavily invested in China. The US and the EU are committed to building new supply chains. Their policies are intended to do this in a way that reduces the effect on their economies. The European Union depended on the US for its response to the Russian invasion and to protect freedom in Europe through NATO. By 2024 the European Union policies will be integrated with policy of the US. China is also trying to reduce the effect on its economy by decoupling in a way that maintains growth. ...

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This report by Nate Cohn of the NYT shows how the U.S. election map is changing in 2016 with Hillary Clinton strong among college educated voters and weaker with working class voters than president Obama in 2008. She more than makes up for this loss of working class voters in many red Republican states in the southern U.S.- as Cohn shows there are about 1.5-2.5 college educated voters in the southern and mountain states compared to working class voters. The pattern is reversed in midwestern states where there are only about 0.5 college educated voters for every working class voters. This is why Trump is doing better in Ohio, Iowa and Clinton doing better in Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Utah, Colorado, traditionally Republican states. Overall there is less focus on cultural wars and abortion issues in this election, with focus shifting to beneficiaries of globalization, and people hurt by trade and globalization in older factory towns. Even in the suburbs of Philadelphia, Cloumbus, Milwaukee, and in western Michigan Clinton does very well because of college educated voters, including white college educated voters. ...

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This WSJ editorial board opinion lists all the reasons for continuing the war in Ukraine without answering the question raised by Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg about- what US interest calls for losing an entire generation of Ukrainians and Russians young men to war? The US as a beacon of hope in the world requires asking this question. Kellogg is a 80 year old veteran who has seen hand to hand combat in Vietnam and survived, attended the US Army College in Kansas, and has decades of experience in the Army, and was National Security Adviser. The US should ask questions about what is its right role? NATO was started in 1949 against the wall coming up in Eastern Europe under Communism, the Warsaw Pact was formed to oppose NATO in 1955. Yet after the Warsaw Pact was  disbanded by July 1991 after the fall of Communism there was no effort to reassess forming a new architecture that is based on the new situation. Shouldn't NATO have been replaced after Warsaw Pact was no longer in existence? Russia was too weak in the 1990's and till 2010 and there was no one to make the case for a new defense architecture. And no effort to reconsider and see that there is no fallback to positions from the Cold War and before that to British Empire positions about protecting its dominions in India and Asia from Russia. Considering that Russia is the only major nuclear power other than US in 2025, and within the years of a pandemic that destroyed an entire generation of older people- American, Russian, Chinese and Indian.   ...

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Gerlad Seib points out that one should look less at what president Trump accomplished in the first 100 days and more at how he operated and learned during this initial period. This is certainly true because much of what happened in the first 100 days contradicts some of the tone that Trump setup during the campaign. When it comes to governing Trump has made an effort to learn and adapt and show resilience in the face of early setbacks on the travel ban and the health care bill, the Flynn episode. After this early period Trump took on a more disciplined approach, gave more room to and listened to more respected advisors- Tillerson on foreign affairs in shaping policy with Russia leading to Tillerson's presence at Lucca massacre memorial in Italy sending a clear signal about U.S. policies in line with its role in the past century in world affairs, Gary Cohn and Ross on economic policy and seeking Cohn's advice on tax plan, Ross's on NAFTA negotiations with Mexico. As a result the NAFTA fears were calmed down with statements by Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary, that the goal was a win-win relationship with Mexico. Trump worked with his party in Congress to have the Supreme Court nomination of Gorsuch approved. Meetings with Merkel of Germany and Jinping of China were carefully planned and new relationships established as Seib points out, without ruffling trade relations. The appointment of Robert Lighthizer, as Trade Representative, also shows that efforts to give the U.S. a more level playing field in trade will be resolutely pursued in the win-win context. Lyrarc has profiled Lighthizer earlier in this decade after his op-eds in the media as he correctly anticipated the changing public mood on the need for fairness in trade relations. On relations with China and South Korea, Jim Mattis has taken the lead, and Pence's visit to South Korea also show deftness in handling what is one of the most difficult issues in foreign affairs. Mattis and Tillerson also have helped reinforce the Republican party policies on NATO and Europe, with the visit of NATO secretary general Stoltenberg to the White House. In the end it is how much you can learn in the first year, how much you listen, and the courage to act in difficult situations, the willingness to act contrary to one's instincts and self interest where necessary, that matters. This is especially true in an environment where as Seib points out the Democratic Party stands opposed to the Trump administration following a bitter election campaign.   ...

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The symbolism of the Ramstein Air Force Base is unique as US Defense Secretary Austin says this months meeting of Blinken and Austin at Ramstein with their European counterparts will be followed by monthly meetings. Lloyd Austin sees this as a monthly group on Ukraine self-defense. Ramstein Air Force base is the headquarters of the US Air Force in Europe, and of NATO Allied Air Command. For the first time the invasion of a free people and country in the middle of Europe is being taken seriously in Europe and the US.  In Germany Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck of the Greens have joined with Mr. Lindner of the Free Democrats to express the same views in the coalition government with the Social Democrats, making it clear that the German people are with the Americans and European leaders gathered at Ramstein base. The earlier symbolism of Merkel and Steinmeier and a German position of a bystander in the changes happening in the world in China and in Europe are now seen as having emboldened the Russian invasion of Ukraine. India and most Asian and Latin American countries and the UN Secretary General have called for an immediate end to the invasion.  ...

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The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, is at the center of talks for resolution of the crisis in Europe over Ukraine. Under the arrangement setup under OSCE with Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France as members the security arrangements in Europe are set forth- all nations as member states will respect each others national sovereignty. Russia's approach to settle its concerns about Ukraine joining NATO on its borders was to exclude European Union and deal with this entirely as a US Russia issue. For Europe turning to the OSCE emphasizes Europe's role to solve disputes in its own backyard. This opens up ways to bring all parties to the table for talks. This is because the US position remains firm not conceding on the point of Ukraine choosing its own future and foreign affairs, in effect preserving the right of all of Eastern Europe to choose its own future, something gained after the fall of the Soviet Union. The US approach is also to use an information war of sorts to deter invasion by saying an invasion is imminent. This places the ball right back in the European court in this war of nerves. ...

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Efforts to bring the two sides together for ceasefire succeed for Black Sea but hit snags along the way. Russia wanting to get sanctions lifted on it's Agricultural Bank to lift grain and fertilizer exports. A separate deal on not attacking energy infrastructure was negotiated.  Fundamentally NATO needed to be reconstituted at the end of the Cold War. Russia's apparent weakness was temporary as it converted to a market economy from the Soviet model. It's GDP is not a correct representation of it's capabilities and need for respect as an advanced European economy. With US-Russian cooperation nothing like Syria and Venezuelan disasters would have happened disrupting the fabric of American and European democratic systems. Russian conditions include ones that were clear from the early days of the war. Ukraine joining NATO threatens Russian security. That this was not to be allowed. And Ukraine to relinquish territory now controlled by Russia in Crimea and in Ukraine's east. DJT in the US has ruled out joining NATO for Ukraine. These territories have been integrated into Russia and it is unlikely that this would change so that continuation of the war after so many lives are lost doesn't make sense. Europeans particular Baltic Republics and Poland are concerned about Russian intentions- this too is not going to change by continuation of the war. It can be addressed by putting in concrete safeguards. ...

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The Obama administration started the first term in office with efforts at reaching agreement on reducing nuclear arsenals. By the second term of the Obama administration the talks were already faltering. The war in Syria and Iraq and other conflicts in the Ukraine led to worsening relations with Russia. During the first year of the Trump administration that followed the two Obama terms in office the situation is completely reversed from what it was in 2008, showing that more than good intentions are needed to pave the way for reducing nuclear weapons. The expansion of NATO to Russian borders, the conflict in the Ukraine, the sanctions that hurt the Russian economy in Obama's second term did more to destabilize relations. The Trump administration's ambivalence towards Russia is not seen in the way the U.S. is responding to Russia'a policy actions to expand its nuclear weapons capabilities.

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The former commander of the NATO US forces in Europe 2014-2018, Gen. Ben Hodges, says the war could end in 2023 with air support to Ukraine. Hodges tells DW.com's Ines Pohl, that the only red line for Washington's support in Ukraine is "boots on the ground." Hodges says Ukraine must retake Crimea to maintain the international rules based order and the UN Charter.

About the Russian offensive in Feb 2023 Hodges says Russia was attempting to "surge" a new offensive but it does not have the capability to launch a "major' one. "They don't have the armored forces, the ability to break through," and that it will not change the "overall operational environment in Ukraine." This is the first serious assessment of the new phase in the war on an overall basis looking at the larger picture of Russian and Ukraine plus outside support capabilities. 

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There are serious differences in what Ukraine says it received $67 billion military aid and $31 for budget needs compared to the $350 billion figure cited by DJT. DJT calls Zelensky as not legitimately representing Ukraine as no elections can be called in Ukraine in wartime and Zelensky's term expired in 2024, saying should'nt the people of Ukraine be at the table. He also says Ukraine was at the table for 3 years and even a half baked negotiator could have settled this war. What DJT means is that Ukraine could have settled it by promising to stay out of NATO, and remain neutral not joining the EU. It would have given up control over formerly Russia supporting parts of Ukraine in the east that Russia now controls. Ukraine would have returned to being a buffer zone between Western Europe and Russia of today. Even today this has not changed as any peace would not reverse the status quo of control of these eastern regions by Russia. On NATO Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says- "Trump (DJT) is the first, and so far only Western leader to publicly and loudly say that one of the root causes of the Ukraine situation is the impudent line of the previous administration to draw Ukraine into NATO.” Zelensky's popularity has fallen in Ukraine as the war drags on. DJT says US has put $350 billion in Ukraine and asked for an agreement committing half of Ukraine's rare earth resources to the US. Zelensky says he cannot sell the state out. Zelensky's estimate of US assistance is $67 billion military aid and $31 billion in aid for the budget. ...

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More reasons on the Russian side to make a negotiated settlement is the loss in value of the ruble by 25%, and the central bank raisng interest rates to over 20%. War weariness on both sides in Ukraine and Russia, Zelensky's popularity down to 16% and nothing to gain in prolonging this war for the US, NATO or Russia.