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As the focus shifts to the east, the war in April in Ukraine shifts to a prolonged war. It also means that the focus now is also on economic separation of US and European economies from Russia and China. As it was this overdependence that lacked prudence or good sense, that emboldened Russia in its relations with the US and Europe, and China in its relations with neighbors in Asia. This report looks at the arms aid Ukraine may need to defend the region on its eastern border with Russia. Russia plans to focus on the separatist Luhansk and Donbas regions in the east which have sought closer ties with Russia. The war in the east has dragged on already for over 10 years.The rest of Ukraine and particularly western areas near Poland such as Lviv and areas near the Baltics have shown strong sentiment for an independent Ukraine able to choose her own path. Throughout history the Baltics and Poland have had a strong influence on western Ukraine and Russia on eastern Ukraine bordering Russia, with influence swinging one way or the other throughout Ukraine depending on the period in history. After the westernization and modernization of Russia under Peter the Great in the 17th century and of Prussia as a German state independent of the Hapsburgs in Vienna around the same period, geopolitics shifting the balance of power took on a bigger dimension. Putin's actions can only be seen as a throwback to using the tactics of invasion going back to this period in history from 1700 to 1950, when dominant powers France, Austria led by Hapsburg dynasty, and Britain with the Dutch fought wars seeking advantage mostly on territory of German states and Italian states, and in all parts of the world. This also laid the grounds for colonization of large parts of Asia and Africa by Europeans in this contest for dominance through trading companies that traded for profit, and used tax revenues from acquired lands for profit making and military activity. In some ways poor economic choices such as the excessive dependence of the US and European economies and their integration with China and Russia have led to the war. As they created advantages Russia and China did not have in technological capabilities and stronger economies that make war an alternative to support foreign policy goals. In the long term it is this these unsustainable economic choices that will be pulled back following the pandemic for shorter supply chains closer to home. This prudent economic separation could not have happened without recent events, as even now Germany industry says its dependence and integration with Russia is hard to reverse for gas supplies, and American business is only now making the changes away from dependence on China in its supply chain.   ...

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In his plain talk on Syria Trump said the primary message to Russia was: "You should have peace in Syria; its enough." This is the message foreign minister Tillerson is delivering in Moscow. He described the Russian support for the Syrian government as: "I think it's very bad for Russia, I think it's very bad for mankind, it's very bad for this world." He also described Chinese president Xi Jinping's response at a state dinner during dessert when Trump told him about the U.S. missile attack on Syrian airfield, as expressing the sentiment that it was OK considering the chemical attacks by the Syrian government on civilians and children. The closest any president gets to the plain talk given by Trump is during the period of the Cold War when Truman also had this kind of plain talking style to deliver the message that needed to be heard.

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Chancellor Merkel visits Latvia in August 2014 and calls for a "persistent NATO presence" in the Baltic states. Merkel also visits Ukraine for talks with Ukrainian leaders. Germany is also mediating in the crisis and helped to arrange a meeting between Russian president Putin and Ukraine president Poroshenko in Belarus.

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This NYT editorial on Nov. 23, 2012, points out the importance of a forward looking Britain that has a needed voice in the affairs of the European Union, and positive engagement with the nations in the eurozone that make up its largest trading partner. Roger Carr, head of the British Confederation of Industry, made just such a call saying British engagement with the rest of Europe was "the linchpin of our wider global trade ambitions." The danger now is that because of missteps in the managing of affairs in the EU, including the hasty setup of the euro currency without proper safeguards for debt of individual countries and the strict fiscal arrangements imposed by Germany that stifle the chance of growth, the mood in Britain is now shifting towards exit from the EU. An Opinion/Observer poll suggests a referendum held today is likely to win an yes vote for Britain to leave the EU, a huge mistake for British interests. A referendum is expected to be scheduled for 2015.

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The Washington Post's veteran Middle East correspondent, Jim Hoagland, says there are some important lessons to take from the experience in Libya. The Arab rulers who entrenched themselves for decades wasted the bulk of their oil wealth. It was right for Palestinians to disassociate themselves from these regimes. The French took the brunt of the fight in helping Libya free itself from the Gaddafi regime. This is an understatement as without Sarkozy's initative and Cameron's unflagging support, without France and Britain's early support, Gaddafi's forces would have overrun Benghazi and ended the struggle for democracy in this part of the Arab world. U.S. President Obama and Defense Secretary Gates did little in the early days when there was dire need. Germany's chancellor Angela Merkel continuously resisted supporting France and Britain in Libya. The U.S. Obama administration and Turkey gave their support only after the perilous period- when the fate of the rebels fighting for freedom hung on a thread- was past. Hoagland calls Gates view of "feckless Europeans" shortsighted. Hoagland sees this as an opportunity for Europe to take a larger more active role. ...

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NATO airstrikes played abig role in defeating Gaddafi's army. NATO has so far flown 7,459 strike missions, covering thousands of targets. The result has been the destruction of the Gaddafi regime's infrastructure and fighting capabilities of his forces. With every passing week the coordination betwen the rebel units and NATO for pinpoint strikes has improved. And in the final assault towards Tripoli NATO strikes destroyed any attempts by Gaddafi forces to launch an attack to retake Zawiyah. On the ground special British and French units have helped train rebel forces and improve their coordination and capabilities.

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Guido Westerwelle, foreign minister of Germany, and former head of the Free Democratic party, made another misstep by describing Germany's support for economic sanctions as a key factor in the fall of the Gaddafi regime. He did not credit NATO's military intervention as the main reason. Westerwelle opposed German support for NATO's military intervention and Germay abstained in a UN security council meeting vote to authorize military force in protecting Libyans from Gaddafi's regime. The results of this policy are seen as diminishing Germany's international image, and seen as isolating it from its allies in Europe and NATO. The new head of the FDP, Phillip Rosler came out strongly to credit NATO for the military intervention, saying: "our deep respect and thanks goes to our allies, who decisively thwarted Gaddafi's murderous units." German chancellor Merkel sidestepped the issue by crediting NATO for its leadership. FDP's rank and file supporters believe that voters will hold the party to account for this and other missteps by Westerwelle. Former German foreign minister, and former Green's party leader Joschka Fischer told Der Spiegel magazine: this was "perhaps the biggest foreign policy debacle in Germany's post-war history." ...

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The Ukraine war could go on for months in a prolonged war of attrition now that Russian strategy is to withdraw its forces near Kviv and concentrate its forces in the east - on Donbas and Luhansk- says this report in the WSJ. US, Britain and other allied nations in Europe are increasing assistance to Ukraine in the conflict which could result in a long conflict. The result could be lasting changes in how the world was perceived pre covid and pre Ukraine. As in past conflicts in Europe there may be no winners in this war, just lasting changes in economic structures, more refugees integrated into the Eastern European economies, and accelerated changes in supply chains, renewable energy investment. Russia's people are not fully engaged, with use of younger less motivated and trained soldiers, leading to a conflict similar to that of the earlier period in European history where kings in Europe fought wars for geopolitical advantage, small territorial gains, and wars ended in small shifts in the balance of power between England, France, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Russia. German chancellor Scholz is said to be reading Cambridge historian Brendan Simms account of this in a book titled- "Europe." The book is appropriately subtitled "Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present." Simms sees Germany as critical to what happens in Europe.  One of the key changes is the reintegration of Germany and European Union with the US as happened during the years after world War II. The policies pursued by former chancellor Merkel in relation to China and Russia and the integration of the German and European economies with China and Russia is likely to be reversed for stronger US-EU ties under the Scholz and Biden leadership of the alliance, and stronger economic ties with Japan and India in Asia.     ...

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Khedery describes the complete collapse in Sunni- Shiite relations under the Maliki regime and the Iranian influence in Iraqi politics in stark terms. It will take a near miracle, tolerance for religious faiths and opinion, and an exceptional leader, to turn things around and put the decades of misrule of Hussein and Maliki behind. Without that there can be no Iraq. Khedery goes into the misrule in a manner that American political and military leaders only talk about in a sparing manner so as not to make the entire Middle East policy look disastrous.

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This report by Peter Baker shows President Trump only reluctantly agreed to certify the Iran Nuclear Agreement. He opposed it in discussions with the Secretary of State Tillerson. It took the combined effort of Tillerson Dunford of the combined chiefs of staff, Defense Secretary Mattis, and of National Security Adviser McMaster, to get Trump to agree to go ahead with the deal. President Trump wanted a new strategy to counter Iran in the Middle East. The Iranian foreign minister Zarif has not yet met with Tillerson of the U.S. Zarif says Iran may withdraw from the deal if there is significant nonperformance by the U.S. Trump advisers are wary about the influence on Europe as the EU is not interested in taking a new look at the Iran nuclear deal. The EU sees things differently- that the issues of Iranian influence in the war torn Middle East is a separate issue from the nuclear deal, and that in any case a nuclear constrained Iran is better than one with nuclear weapons. Another factor is that the Middle East is now a complicated place with relations crisscrossing in different and even conflicting directions. The U.S. played a part on the Iranian side in the retaking of Mosul in Iraq with U.S. bombing strikes against Islamic State. In Iraq the U.S. is supporting the Abadi government which is mainly Shiite in its structure and is supported by Iran. The Trump position is that president Obama gave away too much in negotiating the deal and was not against the negotiating process.   ...

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This editorial in the Economist looks at China's relationship with Russia. It says the Ukraine conflict and western sanctions have resulted in Russia moving closer to China. Yet the two countries have competing interests in central Asia, and different relations with India and Vietnam, in the Asian region. Russia is also wary of China copying designs of Sukhoi aircraft in sales to China of advanced military technology. The major oil and gas deal signed in 2014 provides Russia with a new outlet for oil and gas with the cooling of the relationship with Europe. Yet Russia has strong ties built with Germany over the entire post war period, and differences have emerged in U.S.- German relations. Germany's relationship with Russia- cooled by sanctions and German wariness over Russian intervention in Ukraine and Russian wariness over NATO close to its borders- spans 7 decades and is likely to remain strong in the long term. This comes from the shared sense of awareness of the terrible conflicts of an earlier period, just as it has for French-German relations, and from the strong efforts made by Germany to preserve the relationship and peace in Europe. Chinese president Xi's visit to Moscow on May 9, for celebrations of victory over Nazi Germany, will be followed by a visit May 10 by Chancellor Merkel of Germany. A factor in German-Russian relations is the close trade links, cultural exchanges, and history going back to the GDR where Chancellor Merkel is from, built up over many years, that are likely to set the long term future of relations. China's dominant partner relationship in the China- Russia relations does not bode well for the future of relations, compared to the equal partner relations with its European neighbor, Germany. In this different light Ukraine is a temporary pause, in German-Russian relations and peace in Europe, a situation which is in China's long term interest as it focusses on its economy and the next phase of development for a modernized economy. Especially as China continues to build on its own vital trade relations with Germany and the European Union, the latest example being Germany, other EU nations, and India, joining the China sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. ...

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Merkel prods Russia to follow Germany's example as she lands in Kiev on the 75th anniversary of the nonaggression pact signed between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. Merkel said: "That today a German chancellor can be here shows what has happened... We want countries to be able to freely decide their political direction. We no longer participate, as the Federal Republic of Germany, in stirring up historical misery, and that is a good development of history." Russia badly needs to find a new place in a new world rather than stir up memories from the Soviet or Tsarist period, just as Germany has done in the period since 1945 with chancellors Adenauer, Brandt, down to Merkel and president Gauck today. The world today is very different from the period when Merkel grew up in the German Democratic Republic and Putin lived as a KGB officer in Dresden, Germany. Even more so as the manner of living in urban areas in different parts of the world, business, industry, the arts, culture, products is increasingly converging, with higher expectations. ...

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IMF economist Oliver Blanchard, says the euro's depreciation vis-a-vis the dollar "would be a good thing." Because "in a way Europe needs it more than the U.S., and the U.S. could probably offset it in some way." The IMF forecast is for a 0.3% contraction in the eurozone in 2012 and growth at 0.7% in 2013. Blanchard says a drop in the euro exchange rate of 10% would normally boost growth in GDP by 1.4%.

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As Mr. Maliki resigns from the premiership in Iraq, a former aide says of his eight years as prime minister that Maliki never battled to preserve the state, only to preserve his own premiership. And other colleagues says he thrived on demonizing the Sunnis and the regular crises under his leadership. The new prime minister Mr. Abadi is also from the same Shiite Dawa party that Maliki belonged to, and it is not clear how is leadership will turn out. The final push for Maliki's ouster came from Ayatollah Sistani of Iran. The U.S. and western allies also pushed for a new leader. The use of sectarian Shiite militias by Maliki to fight the Sunni insurgents from ISIS in 2014 further aggravated Iraq's religious divide.

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Entous, Malas and Abushakra of the WSJ give a detailed account of the series of smaller chemical attacks that ended with this large attack in the suburbs of Damascus in August 2013, the actions of key participants, and the responses of the global community.