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The IMF's Martin Cerisola, who headed a delegation to Iran on Jan. 25- Feb 8, 2014, has put out a report on the country's economy saying serious risks lie ahead. The inflation rate fell from 45% annualized rate in July 2013 to about 30% in Dec 2013, offering a short respite with a slight easing of the sanctions regime, but Cerisola says Iran remains in serious danger of "external shocks," that could affect Iran's currency, the rial. Cerisola says in his report that the reduced subsidies for fuel and food, poorly funded social programs, and the "marked deterioration in the external environment stemming from the intensification of trade and financial sanctions, have weakened the economy."

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John Taylor looks one step ahead of the March 2012 Greece bailout and sets up the most plausible scenario for the future. He says the risks of contagion were always exaggerated from the beginning- a planned default or restructuring of debt such as happened in Argentina in 2001, does not have the contagion risks associated with a chaotic and unplanned default as in Russia in 1998. Predicability in policy makes a huge difference, says Taylor. The European banks which stood to lose from writedowns exaggerated the fears of contagion- a process that always occurs for people who are adversely affected by writedowns- resulting in top officials in the European Union delaying the unavoidable serious restructuring. It was not until Chancellor Merkel handed Charles Dallara, who negotiated for the European banks, a note stating a demand for 50% bondholder writedown, on October 27, 2011, at EU headquarters in Brussels, did any serious writedown of debt begin. Merkel told Dallara: "this is my last offer." The July 2011 summit by contrast had only a 10% bondholder writedown in the agreement, when insolvency not illiquidity was the real issue. Walker Forelle and Meichtry, give a detailed account of what happened in the Wall Street Journal, Dec. 30, 2011. The important thing for Greece, says Taylor, is for what the IMF calls "growth enhancing structural reforms" - greater reliance on private markets, incentives, rule of law. He says this bailout won't work because IMF growth forecasts do not reflect the rapid shrinking of the Greek economy. Antonis Samaras, leader of the major opposition party, is in favor of pro-growth measures and has stated his desire to change the agreement. The 130 billion euro bailout provides 90 billion euros for recapitalizing Greece's banks, and financing the budget. This puts Greece in a situation where the political leaders win voter support by discarding the conditions from the Northern EU nations and come with a plan that is better suited for Greece. The EU in this scenario would cut off further bailout funds to Greece. Taylor sees this as the better outcome for Greece than the current situation, which leaves Greece no hope for growth, and also for the EU by getting out of bailouts that have little prospect of working. It would be difficult but doable for Greece says Taylor, because interest payments would be low and Greek banks would be recapitalized after the current March 2012 bailout. ...

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John Lewis, is the last surviving speaker of the March on Washington in 1963, when Martin Luther King gave his historic speech. Here he describes how Martin Luther King would see today's America. Foremost he points out is that MLK would want to see justice not just as racial justice, but justice in a broader sense that says something about the dignity and value of human beings. And this means, says Lewis, the president getting away from advisers and polls, and talking to ordinary people. It means focussing on jobs, the unemployed and people facing foreclosure, and seniors struggling on limited incomes. He calls for a "freedom budget" that would pool resources for infrastructure and investments that would create a better environment for people to live in.

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Friedman describes how the farmers who left the rural areas in search of work and settled outside Aleppo and other towns after a severe drought were radicalized by the lack of help from the Assad regime. About 800,000 people migrated from their farms in the countryside to cities in Syria, and settled outside the cities without help and basic services from the Assad regime. When the call for democracy came they were the first to join the protests.

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Following the events in Charlottesville where a car drove into protesters, president Trump's remarks seemed to equate the actions of white supremacists to protesters. This has led to strong criticism from the business community with most business leaders withdrawing from the president's advisory councils from the business community- the Strategy and Policy Forum,  and Manufacturing Council. This includes the CEO's of Johnson and Johnson, Merck, JP Morgan Chase, GM, GE, 3M, and other companies. In his response president Trump disbanded both councils. JP Morgan Chase CEO Dimon said of the president's remarks- 'Constructive economic and regulatory policies are not enough and will not matter if we do not address the divisions in our country." Members of these councils had hoped to use their presence to have a voice. Yet by August 2017, 6 months into the Trump administration this appears to be changing, with CEO's of many companies expressing the view that the Republican policies favoring business would not matter if the basic consensus on tolerance and openness and what the U.S. stands for is allowed to deteriorate. ...

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Bjorn Lomborg of the Copenhagen Consensus Center says about the decision by the Obama adminisration to stop contributing to World Bank financed coal power plants- including one in South Africa- does not take into account the simple fact that 1.2 billion people living in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia have no access to electricity. In the sub-Saharan region of Africa (excluding S. Africa) the entire electricity generating capacity is about 28 gigawatts, or about the same as Arizona with a population of about 9 million compared to 860 million in the region. He says China was able to lift 680 million people out of poverty with urbanization and industry powered by coal. There is no alternative to low cost fossil fuels for the poorer regions of the earth. This is why the International Energy Agency esimates fossil fuel generated energy to remain about the same percentage in 2035 as it is today- 81%. Shale based naural gas can make a difference for air pollution and China is begining to make the shift away from coal- for sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, this goal will take time. ...

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The Center for Strategic Studies in Moscow was prescient in predicting problems of declining support for Mr. Putin before the December 2011 parliamentary elections. Work with 32 focus groups by the Center in May 2012 shows a continuing erosion of support for Putin as efforts to open the political system have faded. The discontent focusses on the delivery of basic services such as healthcare, education, law enforcement, infrastructure.

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A Sept 2012 Census Bureau report shows the median income of a typical U.S. family declined or was flat in almost all states in 2011. Median household income declined in Nevada by 6%, in California by 3.8%. In Arizona and Florida incomes declined by 2.9%. For the U.S. median income declined by 1.3% to $50,502 in 2011. Poverty continues to increase, with California showing 335,760 people falling into annual income levels below $23,021 for a family of four in 2011, giving the state a 16.6% poverty rate.

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New Democracy has 22% and Pasok 18% in polls before the Greece elections. A New Democracy-Pasok coalition is one possible outcome of the election. New Democracy leader Samaras sees a coalition government as tying his hands for policy actions, and feels he can win another election if it took place later this year. By then the thhinking goes Greeks will have vented their anger and will be looking for a stable government. Both parties have seen supporters shift to fringe parties with 22% unemployment and rising taxes.

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Analysts say the odds are now three in four that Greece will exit the euro. The young leader of the Coalition of the Radical Left, which came in second with 16.78% of the vote after New Democracy party's 18.8%, says: "We believe that the path of salvation doesn't pass through the barbarity of austerity measures." A new election is expected as talks to form a new government are expected to fail, with the likelihood that more votes would go to parties other than New Democracy and the Socialist Pasok party, the two parties that have governed Greece. This would mean a smaller vote for the two parties, smaller than the 18.8% New Democracy and 13% Pasok received in this election, relegating them to insignificance in the Greek political landscape. And opening a new chapter for Greece outside the euro.

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Inflation in India is at 9.1% in May 2011, compared to the prior year. GDP growth for the first quarter of 2011 slowed to 7.8%, from an annual rate of 8.3% in the fourth quarter of 2010. Other figures show the same trend. Local investment growth for the second half of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2011 was at 4.1%, a decline from 14.7% at the beginning of the year. Foreign investment in the first quarter 2011 declined 32% from the prior year, down to $3.4 billon. Car sales have also declined to the lowest rate in two years.

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The Nobel Prize Committee's views on free expression of opinion in China, and the selection of Liu Xiaobo for the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize. Thorbjorn Jagland, chairman of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, points out that it is not an interference in China's internal affairs, because international human rights law and standards are above the nation-state, and the world community has a duty to ensure that they are respected. Jagland says the issue is universal human rights and the check on arbitrary majorities around the world. Even if the country is not a constitutional democracy, it is a member of the United Nations, and it has amended its Constitution to comply with the Declaration of Human Rights. The Nobel Committee chairman points to two other selections for the Nobel Prize, that of Andrei Sakharov of Russia, and of Rev. Martin Luther King of the U.S., as evidence that the Nobel Committee has stood up for universal human rights for a long time.

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NYT exhortation for Congress to resist the lobbying pressures of the banks to weaken regulation for a Consumer Protection Agency and derivatives trading on exchanges. The first by amending legislation for a Consumer Protection Agency so that no states can pass tougher consumer protection laws, something that prevented states from protecting consumers from abuses in the mortgage business. The second to propose legislation for derivatives trading that allows corporations and hedge funds to trade derivatives privately. NYT editorial says Congress should require all derivatives dealers and users -banks, hedge funds and corporations- conduct their trades on exchanges where they are reglulations and public scrutiny. NYT responds to the banks and corporations that say this would raise their transaction costs to hedge any given risk, by saying that this is debatable. Greater transparency should reduce costs but even if there were some higher costs it would be outweighed by the larger benefits to the banks themselves and the country through the lower systemwide risks. ...

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Eric Bellman's intervew with Rajiv Lall, chief executive officer of Infrastructure Development Finance, India's largest infrastructure financing company. Lall says the conditions are right for power development to be the next telecom of India's growth story, with some of the same impact that telecom has had bringing mobile phones to hundreds of millions of people in India. IDFC expects 20% growth in net profit in 2010 and 30% in 2011.

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Tim Pawlenty, former Republican governor of Minnesota, and co-chair of the Romney campaign, becomes the head of the lobbying organization for U.S. banks, Financial Services Roundtable. He succeeds Steve Bartlett. During his brief presidential run in 2012, Pawlenty raised $5 million in donations from banks. Sorkin talks to Bartlett about the appointment and Pawlenty's criticism of banks during the bailout. Bartlett says that in Washington what you say and think depends on the position you are in.

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Austin Goolsbee says the overvalued currencies of Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal and the lack of growth under austerity plans proposed for these countries create impossible odds for resolution of the financial problems in these countries. The German position is that profligate spending and irresponsible accounting in Greece, and structural issues in Italy ranging from entitlement spending to tax evasion, need to be resolved.