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The Economist points out that the last thing President Obama needs - when he has serious domestic and foreign policy goals- is another Vietnam. Just as Bush's presidency was seriously affected by Iraq, Obama's presidency it says would be seriously affected by Afghanistan. And the Economist emphasizes as General Chrystal's chief conclusion: "an insurgency cannot be defeated by aforeign army alone." It points to General Chrystal's view that success means winning the support of the people, and the loss of faith in the government of Karzai. Obama and Biden will have noted this as they have growing doubts of their own about the widespread fraud seen in the Afghan election. Ground reports from Afghanistan support this assessment about acomplete loss of support for the Karzai government. See Intelilinks.

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This NYT report by Eric Schmitt describes the efforts of U.S. troops in Europe under Lt. Gen. Frederick Hodges to build  a fast movement capability to counter the threat from Russian forces on the borders of countries in Eastern Europe. Hodges says speed of movement is crucial. American forces are deployed in smaller numbers than the Russian forces. A 10 day exercize under Hodges involved 25,000 American and allied forces across Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. Russian forces exercizes involve more than 100,000 troops. The war in Ukraine involved a breakaway region in the east supported by Russian forces.

Commanders and younger officers were trained to address the Cold War threat with the soviets. Then for over a decade the focus shifted to Afghanistan, then Iraq and Syria. Now the focus shifts back to the Eastern European area with a new Russian threat.

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WSJ reports from Pakistan, Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey, Indonesia and Brazil show the effects of inflation in the price of grains, oil, cereals, other essential food supplies, and oil in these countries. In Beirut the price of flour is up 1000%. In Kenya bread prices are up 40%. In Indonesia the government has put price controls on cooking oil. In Brazil Petrobras increased oil prices by 19%. In Turkey a sharp increase in the price of sunflower oil caused panic buying. In Uganda price of vegetable oil has doubled, and wheat up 25%. Russia and Ukraine supply one third of the cereal exports in the world and 52% of the sunflower oil. Higher fertilizer prices are a problem for farmers as Russia is the largest producer of fertilizer. Increase in wheat prices are an acute problem for Turkey which imports over 80% of wheat supplies and Egypt which imports 70%. Overall World Bank officials say this could be a problem as bad as the coronavirus pandemic itself. ...

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Senior officials from Russia and OPEC producers meet in Jeddah in April 2018 to work out plans to continue cuts in production to reduce inventories and lift oil prices. The deal was first made in 2016 to reduce the glut then prevailing that led to a slump in oil prices to the $50 per barrel level. The agreement has worked to remove about 2% of world oil production. Healthy demand in 2018 from economies of Europe and America has helped lift oil prices with the cuts in production in place to $70 per barrel. A reinstatement of sanctions on Iran could limit supplies from Iran. Venezuelan production is down in its current economic crisis. Russia says it is 100 percent committed to compliance with the agreement with Saudi Arabia and OPEC countries. It was the lack of agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia with each going its own way following the Russian intervention in Syria favoring Iran that increased the glut in oil supplies in 2015 leading to a fall in oil prices. For some time this hurt the Russian economy and Russia responded by actively devaluing its currency to maintain economic stability and internal growth. The Saudis were hit too by the fall in oil prices limiting new investments in the economy. The new agreement between Russia and the Saudis/OPEC comes after mutual interest has prevailed in the relations of OPEC  and Russia over the geopolitics in the region between Iran supported by Russia and the Saudis. It also comes as relations between the U.S. and Russia are worsening, with increasing investments in the military. ...

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Problems reconciling security interests with interests for civil rights inside the US and the beliefs in using coercion within the code of civilized nations. The story of American prisons in Guantanamo, Iraq and Afghanistan.

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On one of President Bush's key decisions the one not to quit in Iraq and finding the right general and the right strategy. Bob Woodward's description of the skepticism Bush faced as he persevered.

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The opening to newly elected prime minister Rouhani in Iran began after an aide to Mrs. Clinton, Jake Sullivan met with Iranian representatives in Oman in July 2012. Deputy Secretary of State, William Burns, joined the talks conducted with the help of the Sultan of Oman, so that by the time Rouhani was elected in June 2013 the effort became frutiful. In the case of Cuba the opening was made using Benjamin Rhodes, a 37 year old speechwriter for Obama who worked with him since 2008. This enabled secrecy in the case of the Cuban initiative. Rhodes was helped by Cuba expert Zuniga in the U.S. Special Interests Section in Havana. Rhodes and Sullivan also worked on the opening to Burma's rulers.

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Fears that the conflict in Syria might spill over and lead to a conflict with Iran pushed up oil prices. At the same time the new forecast by the International Energy Agency in early August 2012 showing a 20% decrease in demand growth in 2013, as a result of the economic slowdown in the U.S., Europe and China, acted to put a lid on oil price increases. Light sweet crude for September delivery was at $92.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on August 10, 2012, and Brent crude was at $112.95 a barrel on the Intercontinental Exchange.

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Iran's government drastically cut subsidies for gasoline, electricity and basic food items. Gasoline prices were raised from 1,000 rials (about 10 cents) per liter to 4,000 rials. As a result gasoline consumption is down 14% in early January from the prior month. Use of public transport is up 20%. Fares for Tehran's buses and subway went up by 20%, far less than the price increase for gasoline. The government introduced a $40 per person monthly stipend to soften the impact especially for poor families. Iranians are gradually tightening their belts and adjusting to the price increases, reducing wasteful energy use. Iranians have one of the highest rates of wasteful energy consumption in the world, according to IMF. This is because Iran has so far provided generous subsidies, covering 80% of the cost of energy and basic food items. President Ahmadinejad has introduced the Smart Subsidy Plan which calls for a gradual five year phaseout. These cuts will save $100 billion a year, according to government estimates, and is supported by the IMF. Iran is rigorously monitoring price increases in retail stores to ensure that retailers are not passing on the increases to customers. Trucking and transport businesses are allowed to raise their fees by only 15% to cover rising costs including the 837% fuel price increase....

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What is California's position in nuclear and renewables and does the substance the facts justify the image it promotes of being energy friendly and using renewables? Answer is NO  because only 9% of its total end use energy consumption according to EIA figures (2023) comes from renewables. It uses no coal yet about 60% of its energy is from crude oil. During the current crisis in the war with Iran is California an example to follow? The answer is No because it has not used renewable energy the way Germany has or EU has, and it has not managed its crude oil well by not using domestic crude oil instead relying on imports, which only burden the global needs for crude oil coming from a state with capacity to do lot better. By comparison Germany gets 23% of its total energy consumption from renewables compared to 9% for California, and for Germany 60% of its total electricity production is from renewables compared to 46% for California. EIA data shown here from US government data does not paint a very energy friendly picture. California's imports of crude oil at 75% of consumption and drop in refineries from 48 to 3 shows it has not managed the oil refining side of energy in the best way possible. How does it rate in making good use of energy? Here it uses 174 million BTU's per capita no different than New York at 174 and about the same as Florida and Washington DC, Massachusetts, Maryland.  And Germany has achieved 122 million BTU per capita showing California far behind. How does it rate in using renewables and nuclear? As it is a state with urban and suburban sprawl with large driving distances it uses a lot of crude oil for transportation. Petroleum or crude oil use is 58% of total energy use, Natural gas 25, Renewables are only 3%, electricity generation is 14% of which only 46% is from renewables. California is NOT the model for the US. We have to look elsewhere for answers.   ...

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White House Correspondents Dinner shooting on April 25 2026 at Washington Hilton, the scene of the shooting of Ronald Reagan decades earlier. It is unbelievable that over 2000 guests including the US president and important members of his cabinet would be assembled in a hotel in Washington DC that is not designed for this type of event security. The Washington Post raises questions about the security as the assailant stayed in the hotel. The president DJT says this shows why the White House should have a ballroom or hall that can hold such an event that is designed with security in mind. A 31 year old graduate in mechanical engineering from the California Institute of Technology who worked as a tutor in science subjects was the assailant who was apprehended. Secret Service agents acted quickly to clear the podium where the president and vice president were seated. Most of the people in the hotel ballroom were in complete shock. DJT has not attended previous correspondents dinners saying the media has fake news- much of the press in the US tends to have political leanings that slant the news in one direction or the other and television channels exaggerate the divisions for profit by supplying information tailored to what audiences in their political spectrum want. That may be seen as a clever business strategy when it really hurts the  democratic process that has been nurtured for 250 years. It could be said that young people in particular believe what they are told by media run for profit, opinion created for profit, and this leads to violent behaviour. A robust debate has always taken place in the US- on Iran compare that with the Mexican War under president Polk in the 1850's, before the civil war when Lincoln debated Douglas, under Democrat Harry Truman when he did a whistlestop rail campaign after the war against Republican Wendell Wilkie, yet the fragmentation of rural-urban, white male and white female, within minorities today is excessively and without remorse stoked by the television channels and the newspapers.  ...