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Manufacturing output and employment are down 15% since the start of the recession in December 2007 to October 2009. The share of domestic manufacturing consumption taken by imports has risen from 31% in 1998 to 37% in 2008.

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China's state owned China Development Bank signed an agreement to finance a new pipeline that will carry 600,000 barrels a day of Venezuelan and Colombian oil through jungle and the Andean mountains to the Pacific coast. Colombia plans to shift its focus to export much of its 1 million barrels a day of oil production to China. Talks also were held with China on developing central Colombian coking coal reserves and building a railway to the Pacific coast. Colombian plans are based on slowing demand for Colombian oil in the U.S., with increased supplies of natural gas and shale gas in the U.S.

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Peaple points out how Eni's ownership in oil services provider Saipem affects its share price performance. Eni has an excellent record in oil exploration and is expected to increase its production by 2-3% over the 2013-2018 period with a 15% return on capital, according to Citigroup. Dividend yield is above 6%. Share price is 8.8 times expected earnings for 2014.

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China's strategy appears to be to allow the transfer of TikTok ownership to an American consortium and focus it's efforts on renegotiating the 30% tariff on China and China's response of 10% on the US. China is making an effort to protect industries in China that have surplus production. China wants DJT to meet Xi for a Summit in Beijing instead of South Korea as the US has suggested. And Xi  offers to make a visit to Washington DC to improve relations. Scott Bessent and the USTR Greer in negotiations  with the Chinese trade negotiator Vice Premier of Economic Policy, He Lifeng, in Madrid, have come up with an agreement. The US COngress has passed legislation requiring the sale of TikTok to US owners because of sensitive information issues. China now reversed its policy in April when it opposed this as it now sees little advantage in that policy and can concentrate on better trade terms from DJT. A stumbling block is the flow of fentanyl for which DJT imposed 20% of the 30% tariff on China, the other 10% being standard for all countries. ...

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The deterioration in the Irish banking crisis. An additional 13 billion euros will be needed by Irish banks to pay bad real estate debt, after this round of stress tests in March 2011, according to Ireland's Central Bank. This is on top of the 85 billion euros rescue package after collapse of the banks, and the 10 billion euros given by the EU and the IMF. Some estimates say the cost of the banking bust could reach $140 billion for a country with GDP of $241 billion. Ireland's interest payments on debt are estimated to rise to 13% of government revenues by 2012. Serious calls are being made for bondholders to share in the losses as the crisi escalates. Daniel Gros, Director of the Center of European Policy Studies, says policymakers in Europe saw the experience of Lehman Brothers and do not want to see a repeat of that experience at any cost. The weak banks in Germany and other lender countries are too politically connected in his view to be allowed to fail. German banks hold $62 billion in Irish Greek and Portuguese debt and French banks hold $26 billion. Hypo Real Estate, taken over by the German government, holds $14.5 billion of this debt. Bank assets in Europe are a larger share of the national economies in Europe than in the U.S. making the situation more intractable- In Britain over 3.5 times the economy, Ireland 2.5 times, in Netherlands 4.4 times, in France 3.25 times, in Spain 2 times and in Germany 1.5 times GDP, compared to 60% of GDP in the U.S. After the Irish government decided to guarantee the debt of its banks two years ago, Irish taxpayers are stuck with the entire cost of bad debt at the Irish banks....

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This report by Jia Lynn Yang in NYT covers only the Coolidge period and the JFK period ignoring the wider trend since the 1850's when immigration from Asia to the US was discouraged. The laws limiting Japanese, Chinese and Indian immigrants were put in place long before 1924 by the 1890's. Japan agreed to limit immigration to the US under an agreement with the US after 1900. China was undergoing a transition under the Boxer Rebellion and upheaval in government in the period after 1900, India was part of Britain's colonial Empire.It does not mention that Chinese laborers helped do the dangerous work to build the railroads east to west. It also ignores the immigration from Mexico which was a special case in immigration because of Mexico's relationship along the border, first with the Mexican American War that achieved Jefferson's idea of a continental nation coast to coast. Mexico was a source of labor for US agriculture in the 1930's and 1940's when Asian immigration was severely constrained. When Gen. Eisenhower won the election in 1952 immigration policy was on the agenda, in fact Truman had a commission look at it by 1950. Operation Wetback was launched by Eisenhower and returned millions of Mexican migrants back to Mexico. Fearing the lack of farm help for Mexican agriculture Mexican agricultural interests supported the return of migrants. All this is left out by Lynn Yang. For almost a century Asian immigration was discouraged till JFK with experience in Asia during the war looked at Asian immigration to US differently passing new legislation to support this in the JFK/LBJ terms as president. In this sense the operations under DJT at the Border  and in the US in 2025-2026 are similar to what happened under Operation Wetback under a popular president Eisenhower, after the surge in Mexican migration adding millions of migrants to the US population in the 1930's and 1940's. A greater glimpse of the US can only be imagined if after the early immigration and discovery of the continent by the Spanish, the French and the British by 1600, the continent had not been unified first by the war of 1756-1763 with the French and Indian Wars creating the original 13 British colonies before the War of Independence in 1776, and the expansion to Spanish/Mexican territory to the West and South including California, Texas and Florida in the Mexican American War of 1846-48. In that situation there would be five sectors in America- British, Spanish, French, Mexican and American. The US could not have advanced as an industrial power divided in this way and would not have attracted immigrants from Europe the away it did. If it was split into two Southern confederacy and Northern Union states it would also have led to a similar situation. There would be conflict. It is only divine intervention and the courage and ideas of Jefferson and Washington, the work of president Polk, the leadership of Lincoln, and the industrial revolution on a large scale of one Nation in peace for most of the 19th century, that it became a haven for immigrants from a troubled Europe, a struggling Asia and Mexico. ...

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Ford is considering sale of it one third stake in Mazda. The Nikkei notes that Sumitomo Corporation or Tata Motors may bid for the stake.

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WSJ on Intel CEO Lip Bu-Tan and ties to Chinese chip making since 2001 and as an investor through investment firm Walden. Senator Tom Cotton, chair of Intelligence Committee in Senate, questions ties of the new Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan to China. DJT calls for a new CEO, saying there is no other solution that Tan should resign immediately. Under the Biden Administration and the previous CEO Pat Gelsinger the US government offered $8 billion in aid to Intel to maintain it's leadership in chip making technologies. Gelsinger was ousted by the Board last year after Intel's recovery effort was taking time and replaced with Lip-Bu Tan who was an early investor in Chinese chip makers. There are questions why the acting CEO Yeary is cited in WSJ reports to have considered offering Intel's chip making manufacturing for sale to TSMC to exit manufacturing, after the help Intel had gained of $8 billion from Biden to become the dominant maker of advanced chips in the US- recovering a position lost to TSMC when the US had invented the computer chip. Under DJT that is still the American goal under MAGA.   ...

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The deal for buyout of Alitalia by Air France-KLM values Alitalia at0.10 euros a share about 80% below its closing share price of 0.53 euros per share last week. Air France-KLM will give one of its shares for 160 shares of Al Italia and will take on the airlines 1.3 billion euros in debt and losses of a millon euros a day. This values Alitalia at 139 million euros. The Italian Government has put in 4.3 billion euros in the last 5 years to keep Alitalia running till the European Comission ruled out any further help. Alitalia's market share in Italy has dropped to discount airlines like Air One Easyjet and Ryanairdropping from 80% to 30% in the last ten years. The new deal will drop Milan's airport considered to be one of the worst in Europe as a hub and use the airport in Rome ast he third hub after Paris and Amsterdam. It will also retain the Alitalia name. The fire sale of Al Italia shows how the new economic climate is affecting Europe and how a recession in the US could affect the market. At the time Al Italia was also running out of cash with only 282 million euros of cash left at the end of Jan 2008....

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Iraq's population is estimated to be 44-46 million, double that of 1997 the last time a census was done in the country. A census is taking place across Iraq to get a better idea of the population. With one Mp for 100,000 people seats in parliament will increase to 450 from 329. Shias share power with Sunnis and Kurds under an arrangement set by the US in 2003.

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Fed chairman Powell says inflation is just a bit above 2%, the employment market is strong, and the US economy is in good shape in remarks after Fed decision to keep Fed rates unchanged. The Fed is monitoring the situation carefully including the uncertainty regarding tariffs. The coming weeks and months will show what progress is made with the important trading partners of the US on bilateral trade treaties, says Powell. 

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Yuen Yuen Ang presents the view that China is an autocracy with democracy characteristics. Her view of Xi is conventional reflecting contemporary ideas. Yet Xi was profoundly influenced by his father Xi Zhongxun and mother Qi Xin, revolutionary heroes in the fight against the British, Japanese and Chiang Nationalists which shape his view of the world. Zhongxun also shaped the response to the struggle for modernization after failures of the Maoist period, in efforts he made under Deng. In this sense he adapted to different conditions. This view of China's leaders is that they are intuitive and human, that China is simply responding intuitively under Xi to the conditions it faces and perceptions about these conditions to maintain the wellbeing of the vast majority of the Chinese people after the century of struggles 1850-1950 and later missteps. The experiment with capitalism and a new generation with no memories of the past meant to Xi and other Chinese leaders that everything that an earlier generation (his own parents) had fought for in the struggle against the British and Japanese invasions could be lost quickly, if China was allowed to fall into the kind of corruption and self-seeking leaders that marked the Chiang regime of the 1930's. This led to the effort to consolidate the gains of the Chinese nation made over 2 centuries since the rise of the British in Asia in 1800, with Xi seeing no choice but to take responsibility and the initiative as his father Zhongxun had done in the 1930's and 1940's to breakout of isolated regions in the north of China. The sudden shift to adapt to open covid policy is also apparent from Zhongxun's ability to adapt to and lead the changes after Deng's experiment with a market economy. A report by Rohan Premkumar in the Hindu on Jan 25 on a British sub-jail in the Nilgiri hills of Tamilnadu shows prisoners from the Opium wars with China sent to this jail by the British. These events still shape Chinese perceptions of the world- the backwardness in faceoffs with the west and the cost to the mainland Asian nations India and China. Inland river based civilizations on the Ganges and the Yangtze that failed, as Adam Smith says in The Wealth of Nations, to change in ways that the Renaissance  and the Industrial Revolution changed Europe. ...

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The new data security law that went into effect Sept 1, 2021, limits the amount of sensitive information China will share with foreign companies, and investors. All data related activities are subject to government oversight says this report in WSJ, including collection, storage, use and transmission. Companies in China now are reluctant to share information.  Because the law is ambiguous about what is sensitive information this makes companies more reluctant. The result is a China that is more opaque than before. It is driven by antagonism in the US over the effect on American workers of manufacturing and supply chains shifted to China. The response of the Chinese government is to turn the country inward, looking to self sufficiency, data security, and an environment that looks at foreigners with suspicion, says this report in WSJ. The pandemic has increased this view of foreigners in China, after China's experience with a deteriorating trade relationship with the US. Xi Jinping has not left the country since the pandemic started in January 2020. China has also seen an alarming drop in passengers going overseas or coming into China from 50 million in the first 8 months of 2019, to 1 million in the first 8 months of 2021, a drop of 49 million passengers, according to data from the Civil Aviation Administration. Government directives are to minimize foreign travel as a result of the pandemic. People in the US see the operations in China of companies such as Apple and now Tesla as a sign of how well the system of international cooperation is functioning without realizing that these companies never had the understanding of the history and culture of the country after two centuries of struggle against colonialism. When the situation takes a different turn as it has after Mr. Trump raised the issue of American workers and loss of manufacturing, and after the pandemic created unexpected distrust, there is very little these companies have to offer to keep the relationship between two of the world's population blocs, between North America and the closely related population of South America, with the people of China, a billion people on each side. This shows that the relationship cannot be left only to the business and private sector driven by profit and business interests, that all sections of the population in China and in the US need to be involved for a stable relationship with ongoing human and cultural contacts at all levels. ...

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Jawaharlal Nehru was leader of the party under Gandhiji which fought for independence in the 1930's. Under the India Act of 1935 India was given the opportunity to setup state assemblies and free elections  for local self-rule that prepared for eventual Dominion status similar to Canada and Australia. Rab Butler as India Secretary fought hard to get it passed through the British parliament. See Rab Butler in the adjoining articles gist. This is very important as none of what happened in 1947 the task of writing a new Constitution and a Constituent Assembly to do this for India would  have been possible without India Act of 1935- the initial training for elections and assemblies. Some good work was done for example in Tamilnadu Chief Minister Kamaraj under Nehru changed that southern state with progress in education, health, and industry over 15 years 1950 to 1964. By the seventies to the 2010 period the progress ran into serious problems first with one party followed by weak coalitions that led to poor governance, corruption and economic progress stalled. After the experience of China's modernization India is attempting a similar effort with Vision 2047 for modernization of infrasructure and development in speed and scale with one difference- the legacy of Rab Butler who no one knows about in India and forgotten in Britain, the simple document Hind Swaraj written on a British steamship from South Africa to England in 1912 by Gandhiji that asked Indians to self-reflect on their part in letting the British in "who made the Company Sardar?", the post 1950's leadership of Sardar Patel who like Rab Butler was also forgotten till 2014, Jawaharlal Nehru who won a third term in 1962 but was followed by a series of weak governments unable to steer economic progress of scale similar to China or Japan, Lal Bahadur Shastri cut short like JFK, and Narendra Modi who is bringing to the task the hard work and discipline that made it possible for first Japan and then China to modernize infrastructure and emerge as dominant manufacturing nations. Like Japan and China India with its own stumbling periods is making its way in the world today. Both Shastri and Modi are in the direct tradition of their Master, Gandhiji, in the words of Shastri "hard work is equal to prayer." ...

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In a significant development Apple plans to introduce a new iPhone in 2011 at half the price. The new iPhone will be lighter and about half the size of the current model, the iPhone 4. The reduced price would make it possible for Verizon and other carriers to subsidize most of the retail price. Apple at the current time sells iPhones to Verizon and other carriers for an averge of $625 each. A subsidized iPhone can then sold near the price point of $200 with a two year contract. Also in the works is a big revamp of the MobileMe online storage service. The service allows users to access data from a central location, and is sold for an annual subscription fee of $99. This feature gets rid of the need for a lot of memory residing on the phone itself. MobileMe would also be used for online music, social networking and other purposes. These two projects, the mass market iPhone and the new MobileMe are the two top priorities for Steve Jobs, who is still overseeing the efforts from home. Jobs went on medical leave recently. The global market share of the iPhone is only 3.4%, according to IDC. Yet it generated 39% of Apple's $26.7 billion in revenues for the last quarter of 2010. Apple's strategy is to accelerate competition in the smartphone segment. IDC says global sales of smartphones will rise 39% in 2011 to 421 millon units. Apple has sold 84.2 million iPhones since the introduction in 2007. By entering the massmarket with a better iPhone and free features on MobileMe Apple hopes to make significant inroads in 2011-2012....

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James Galbraith points out how Trump appeals to aging Reagan voters on Social Security, and older white Americans. He says much of the talk about the wall is bluster to appeal to this group of voters. On the Democratic side he points out the failure of Hillary Clinton to appeal to younger voters. Galbraith says the young are voting in large numbers for Sanders, and this is likely to shape U.S. elections in 2020, even though Trump and Clinton are nominees of the Republicans and Democrats in 2016.

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Juleanna Glover points to the need for financing of the Kurdistan regional government in Iraq as the central government in Baghdad has failed to make payments to the KRG for its share of national oil income. The KRG would receive 17% of Iraq's national oil income under negotiated agreements, but only $2 billion of $12 billion owed to KRG has been transferred in 2015. The Kurds also have to support 1.8 million refugees from Syria and Iraq with the ongoing civil war. The World Bank predicts a shortfall in funding for KRG of $1.5 billion in 2015, and it needs a $2.4 billion bridge loan. Peshmarga forces it is reported have not been paid for 3 months even as the Kurds have borne a disproportionate share of the burden in the war.

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Andy Kessler says this is sucker's rally that took Citi from $1 share to $4 a share, and helped financial stocks. He says its not only ajobless recovery but also a recovery wothout profits. He gives four reasons. Armageddon is off the table but the problems remain of toxic assets and undercapitalized banks no matter what the stress test are saying (more negotiated Ok's than tests), zero yields with interest on savings at 0.2%, Bernanke's printing press with the Fed going all out to get money to the economy fast announcement of inention to purchase $300 billion of longterm bonds, and $750 billion of mortgage backed securities. He says he is not disagreeing with the Fed's policies considering the crisis, but he says he knows a sucker's rally when he sees one.

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The new tax proposals would affect AGI at 235,000, increasing rates from the current 33% to 36% under the new proposals of the Obama administration, intended to have the affluent pay a larger share of taxes to meet the needs of this crisis.

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Britain's prime minister spent 3 nights in intensive care for coronavirus. He said the "development of a vaccine is the most urgent shared endeavor of our lifetimes." He will confirm Britain's pledge of 388 million pounds for vaccine research, tests and treatments, part of 744 million pounds to the the global effort against coronavirus. "The more we pull together and share our research the faster our scientists will succeed."

An online pledging conference will take place on Monday as part of the vaccine fundraising drive of the European Union and other countries. The initiative from the EU and president of the EU Ursula von der Leyen, is to raise 7.5 billion euros for vaccine research and development of a vaccine for coronavirus. It has the support of Britain, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Norway, Japan, Canada, and other countries. The month long investment drive will go on till the Global Vaccine Summit on June 4.

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The coronavirus is making implementation of the U.S. China trade deal less likely as Chinese imports from the U.S. decrease and China's exports continue to grow. China's exports to U.S. decreased by $60 billion but increased to other countries by $70 billion in 2019.

As a result the Trump administration is shifting its focus to another approach. The new multilateral approach is to combine the effort with allies Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and France. This would take the shape of a Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership to replace the old Obama period Trans Pacific Partnership which becomes defunct. The goal would be to build new supply chains with allies in Asia outside of China with the help of France and other countries that are wary of excessive dependence on China and have deep reservations of China's handling of the coronavirus outbreak.

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China has used the quarantine and strict measures to contain the coronavirus. After being taken by surprise in the way the coronavirus developed in Wuhan region China shifted to large scale containment and quarantine. To do this China used technology, mobile carrier information, volunteers going from door to door and enforced quarantine action. Other countries in Europe, including Italy, are adopting measures such as quarantine and appeals to the public for cooperative behaviours.

The entire approach is new yet shows how government and citizens can work together to contain epidemics of this kind in the modern world of urbanized areas and close contact in subways, streets, and stadiums. The approach in democratic countries may vary from China yet essentially strong bold action has proved to be the way to go, not vacillating and acting one step at a time till things are out of control. 

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The evolution of Mumbai from the British period to the post independence period with trade union movements, was followed by a shift to politics on the basis of getting jobs for local Marathi people in what was once the commercial capital of the British Empire. This kind of politics was led by Mr. Thackeray after 1967. As this report in The Hindu says Mr. Thackerayand the party Shiv Sena highlighted the plight of unemployed Marathi youth  through his party's weekly Marmik. The first government of Mr. Thackeray's party was formed for the state of Maharashtra which includes the city of Bombay by Manohar Joshi in 1995.  Both the trade union movements of Mr. Fernandes in Mumbai and the ethnic politics of Mr. Thackeray failed to provide the development needed for the state of Maharashtra because of the lack of the technology and capital needed and the knowledge of industry needed that could be applied on an American scale, much like the flawed efforts of Mao's politics in the Great Leap Forward, and the Great Proletarian Revolution in the post 1960's period.   ...