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The situation today of the London and the Thames Valey region's economy and the economy of the areas surrounding it in the south. Its history,downturns in periods after the dotcom crash in 2000-2005 and the current expected downturn after the US subprime crisis, and the expected deterioration in the housing market here. As well as problems for the financial institutions in a tightening credit market with London's position as a key centre of international finance impacting the economy the most. Regional diffeernces in the current upturn London's output per person grew to 136 vs decline in output per person in Scotland Wales and the North, a 36% improvement in London vs deterioration elsehwere in the north and in Wales. With Newcastle in the north hit by the Northern Rock mortgage lender's collapse adding to the difficulties from a general decline in manufacturing. A general decline in industry in the north and the rest of the country outside the Thames valley region shows up in the numbers. From 2000 to 2004 according to official estimates, manufacturing declined from 17.9% to 14.1% and financial services around London expanded from 5.5% to 8.3%, and by 2006 to 9.4%. With a contribution of one tenth of the economy financial services account for 30% of overall GDP growth in the last 3 years and 30% of all corporation tax revenues which helped the Labor government finance its public sector improvements and infrastructure improvements. The current downturn will also lead to a sharp drop in immigration to Britain. Growth is expected to slow to 1.4% in London and in the rest of the country in 2008 which is lower than the 2% growth in London region in the period 2000-2005 when the last downturn in London occurred. The financial services industry spills out benefits to other regions and the rest of the country which is how the British economy has done well even with the lack of strong manufacturing, weak exports and strong currency. ...

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When Paulson met with his staff a few days ago he stamped his hand on a marble table asking his staff to stop their arguments with politicians who supported Fannie and Freddie because it would result in a war which he did not want as reported in the New York Times recently. Representative Barney Frank is mentioned as one of the politicians supporting the management of Fannie and Freddie. So it happened that to the very bitter end these managers used their lobbying and political donations to distort the policymaking progress right under the eyes of the Republican administration that knew what was going on and media like the Wall Street Journal that has warned about the dangers at Fannie and Freddie for years. One question remains why under the original mandate for Fannie and Freddie were the companies not banned from political donations and lobbying as they were backed by a government guarantee and at the same time could distort the process of supervision by lobbying and political donations to Congress if this was allowed. So in the end its the biggest failure of the political process and of setting up of such companies that once set up they were beyond anybody's control. Josh Rosner, an analyst at Graham Fisher an independent research firm in New York, makes an apt comment: "since 2003 when these companies' accounting came under question, policymakers have done nothing." One can repeat nothing, and the politicains in Congress who received the donations will go on with their political ways while the government and the public shoulder the burden of billions of taxpayer dollars in the biggest bailout ever, considering the size of these two companies and what at stake for the country's housing markets, and considering that foreign governments like China have invested billions of dollars in these companies and needed assurance to continue to buy and hold Treasury bonds....

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Two things happened last week. The yields on mortgage debt rose sharply, with debt from Fannie Mae yielding 1.8 percentage points more than Treasury bonds of same maturity, which compares with a 0.7 percentage point spread over Treasury bonds in September. Investors including foreign central banks are shunning Fannie and Freddie debt because of uncertainty about the government backing and other forms of debt such as bank borrowing backed by the FDIC has explicit government guarantees. As Fannies and Freddie borrowing costs rise so do mortgage rates. Beginning next week December 1, 2008, the Fed will start buying $100 billion of debt issued by Fannie and Freddie and it also plans to buy upto $500 billion of mortgage backed securities guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie, and the Fed will hire private asset managers to manage this portfolio of investments. By doing this the Fed hopes to lower yields on the debt and bring down mortgage rates to help people buy housing. Teh second thing that happened is that according to Treasury Secretary Paulson the market for securities backed by consumer debt came to a halt last month making it impossible for consumers to get financing for everything from college to computers. This would lead to disastrous results for the many industries and companies that rely on consumer finance to sell their products. this in turn would lead to rising inventories and layoffs, something the auto industry saw happen as financing dried up and sales for GM collapsed dropping over 40% in October, over October 2007. The solution with the support of Treasury the Fed will provide upto $200 billion of financing to investors buying securities tied to student loans, car loans, credit card debt, and small business loans. This should help lower interest rates on these consumer loans and help maintain consumer lending. The Treasury will assume the first $20 billion in losses from this program. ...

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Risks to China's banking system from the bond market in China. China's bond market has grown rapidly to 25.5 trillion yuan or $4.1 trillion yuan, especialy in the period following the stimulus. But it is not similiar to bond markets in developed countries, the U.S., Japan and France. It has a patchwork of regulators, is closed to foreign investors, and does not offer protections to investors. It also lacks an effective ratings system. Most bonds are held and traded by the banks, which concentrates the risks in the banking system. In developed countries the risks are spread out among investors. Bond markets offer the advantage of reducing dependence on banks for lending but with banks holding most of the bonds in China, including that of local governments, the risks if bond issuers default are concentrated in the banking system.

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Alan Meltzer points out that Milton Friedman never supported increasing inflation to reduce the unemployment rate. The exception is when there is deflation. As an honorary advisor to the Bank of Japan, Meltzer, says he advised Japan to buy long-term bonds in the 1990's to increase money growth until deflation ended. Meltzer says there is no sign of deflation now, and the Fed's claim that there is a risk of deflation is because it uses the CPI (consumer price index) as a measure of inflation, and the CPI shows substantially less inflation than other indicators such as the Personal consumption expenditure deflator. The CPI he says gives double the weight to housing prices according to Meltzer

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The debates about the spending are taking place in standing room only meetings in Congessional discussion rooms. With longer term project suuporters callling for spending not to be skewed towards building the roads in the far flung areas that only encourage the same kind of long commutes and urban sprawl that created the energy crisis raher than look at alternatives (perhaps like the ones in Sacramento where new kind of layounts with lower commutes and more proximity of housing and jobs is designed), give public transit and other projects equal importance, and finance projects for a greener America. See te link to Jan Corzine on a view from the perspective of the state governors.

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Strong growth in Europe and Japan and in the rest of Asia plus the weaker dollar which has energized exports will help the US to handle the housing crisis. Asian countries will be less affected than before because of a surging trade between Asia and Europe, Europe just passed the US as China's leading trade partner this year, as well as trade between Asian countries which is also surging. Still if consumer spending is impacted heavily it will affect big export oriented economies in Asia to some extent. Its interesting how the mortgage securities that were passed on from the US to Europe, show up also in the holdings of the likes of Mizuho bank in Japan.

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Gregory Mankiw would like to see the Fed's Ben Bernanke and his colleagues and staff do the job they are doing and not see Congress intervene with fiscal stimulus or other intervention. The Fed and the ECB are led by a good team of economic risk managers and they should be allowed to take care of the economy as it enters 2008 through rate cuts and other moves to help restore growth and overcome the housing and mortgage crisis.See the link to December 6, 2007, BW for an interview with Martin Feldstein. Feldstein thinks a tax cut may be necessary in 2008 and takes a much more serious view of the current situation.

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Citigroup's CEO Pandit sees growth in its Asian and Latin American businesses in 2012-2013. He cited growing investment in infrastructure and the needs of middle class customers in these countries.

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The potential default of Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science and Technology Company on a 2012 bond of one billion renminbi, as the company says it cannot make a payment of 89.9 million renminbi or $14.6 million. China's corporate bond market is now the third largest in the world after the U.S. and Japan, according to BIS. The Asian Development Bank figures are total corporate bonds outstanding of 500 billion renminbi in 2005 growing to 8.5 trillion renminbi in 2013 (or about $1.4 trillion).

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Places like Rapid City, South Dakota, and Topeka, Kansas, where people are choosing to live because of the affordability of homes. Average 30 year mortgage jumped from 3.1% at the end of 2021 to 5.0% by April 2022. High housing prices in coastal and mountain region cities and remote work flexibility are reordering where people choose to live. Rapid City, South Dakota is near the Wyoming border, here you are in what was once the Wild West of Teddy Roosevelt, a western wilderness found in an 8 hour drive to Grand Teton National Park. Nearby to this 145,000 population city are Mount Rushmore and the Black Hills mountain range.

Other cities that are getting attention from younger buyers are Santa Cruz, California, Santa Rosa, California. These are smaller towns of less than 600,000 population with outdoor recreation opportunities and small city feel, and are also attractive to retirees.

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Voters were split in places such as San Diego and Sacramento which have a higher degree of homeless than other places in California. California has one third of America's homeless people. Part of this is that there is a sense that this problem can't be solved, a sense of helplessness that nothing so far has worked. And confusion created about it shifting funds raised from a 1% tax on wealthy for mental health services to be delivered by counties and protests by local mental health organizations that it would prevent prevention efforts. This tax money is shifted to the state level which will put responsibility for solution in one place with a comprehensive attack on the problem in a multipronged way getting to the root of the problem with adequate funding for the first time- the unaffordability of California housing where a 1-2 bedroom house could cost $1 million.

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As the related article in The Washington Post points out the narrative inside India relates more to the the sense that terrorism has been a persistent problem for India and the public's sense that action was needed. Most of the issues in South Asia relate to development, roads, dams, bridges, airports and housing that need to be built, healthcare, sanitation and education on a massive scale. This is an area where India can show the way forward for South Asia, and be the real test for Mr. Modi after the many projects that he has initiated in India in the first term. It is only ordinary Indians, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Sri Lankans, and other people in South Asia that are paying the price for neglect of development and infrastructure as China, South Korea and other nations have forged ahead. A focus on development is the right sphere for competition both for Mr. Modi and for people in the region.

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Patrick Barta's exceptional reporing on Manek Chowk, a busy industrial and commercial centre of Ahmedabad. Manek Chowk, the public market in Ahmedabad, India, where street vendors find jobs in the informal economy. The informal economy provides most of the jobs in countries like India and Brazil. They could be street vendors, rickshaw drivers, workers doing textile stitching work and being paid by the piece, and so on. Ahmedabad has 55,000 richshaw drivers, 70,000 street vendors, 70,000 construction workers, and 45,000 rovish trash collectors and recyclers. Most of the city's once prominent textile mills have vanished or are rotting. If Ahmedabad makes it through this difficult period with job losses in India, its because of a thriving local informal economy. It may not provide what a regular job provides, but it helps people feed their families and they are happy to make it through the tough times. And even in the better times the jobs just do not exist in the proportion necessary in countries like India and Brazil. Consider this. Between 2000 and 2005, the number of formal jobs in India stayed flat at about 35 million, while informal jobs grew 17% to 423 million, according to the Indian government. These are the most recent years for which information is available. Economists say the creation of formal jobs may have picked up after 2005, but not by much. The situation is like this all over much of Africa, Asia and Latin America. And as companies layoff formal workers in favor of cheaper employees part-time and without benefits, the importance of the informal economy grows. In Ahmedabad the rights of these people are protected in the case of women by the Self Employed Women's Association of India, which numbers 1 million people across India....

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Apartment rents went up by 5% in the 12 months through April 2011, according to Axiometrics. Senior economists at Capital Economics say rental yields (the rent divided by the property price) is expected to go up in 2011 to the highest level in more than 20 years.

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A shocking statistic. Of the 12 metropolitan areas in the US with over 15% unemployment, 10 are in California, and this is because the construction industry has taken a severe hit. It lost 74,000 jobs in the 12 months ending in June 2010. From June 2006 to June 2010, this industry in California lost 43% or about 402,000 jobs. And the construction industry is still shrinking there. One reason why the unemployment rate in California is 12.3%. The overbuilding during the boom makes it that much harder to rebuild. The construction industry has been hard hit in Los Angeles and Riverside metro areas and in Napa and Solano counties.

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Does Caterpillar's forecast of difficult economic conditions ahead provide evidence that the economic slowdown is likely. Caterpillar sees USA economic growth at 2% this year and 1.5% in 2008. The housing, nonresidential construction, coal mining and trucking industries are facing difficult conditions which will only worsen because of tight credit conditions in its view. On the other hand Caterpillar sees strong growth in international markets especially in industries like mining, oil and gas, electric power and marine engines. Caterpillar also faces higher costs from a revamping of its manufacturing. Looking at the international growth one sees revenue growth numbers like 36% for Europe/Africa/Middle east, and 30% for Asia, and 20% for Latin America. US is expected to decline by 12% in 2007.

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David Brooks of NYT povides this exceptional essay on a long neglected question. If so much of the politics today is about different communities that are alienated from each  other, what is it about these communities that makes this happen, and how did this come about? After decades of integrating communities and building the economy after the second world war through a strong middle class, what has happened now to see all that progress reverse itself. Rural America and the less educated voted in one way and the urban areas voted in the opposite way, one feeling neglected and the other becoming more segregated in cultural outlook, education, and work. Brooks cites a new book by Richard Reeves of the Brookings Institution called the "Dream Hoarders." The book shows two structural barriers that divide America. One is the residential zoning restrictions, housing and construction rules that keep the less educated away from the opportunities and schools in cities such as Portland, San Francisco and New York. The second structural barrier is the college admissions game that favors the parents and children of the better educated classes. The immigrant communities who come from families that are struggling hard to get into the middle class and upper class work hard to get an edge. As a result about 70 percent of the students in the top 200 competitive schools in America are from the top 25% in the income distribution.  Other barriers are formed by the extent of investment parents in one group put into their children, estimated at 300% by Brooks compared to a flat line for the other group. This accelerated investment leaves the other group far behind. Social barriers form to prevent the kind of interactions one would find normal in an open democratic society. Brooks say the cultural differences show up in the language and product selections, in food and other choices. Just take a typical Brooklyite and someone from western New York state. It is not the intent of one group to look upon this as a desired result. It is their indifference to what is happening that is alarming for a free, open and democratic society. It is their lack of understanding about the implications for life in a free, open, democratic society, of segregating themselves from the vast expanse of humanity around them. It is their lack of knowledge of the history of this continent built on the idea of education and opportunities for all from the time of Benjamin Franklin in Pennsylvania and the early settlers, the idea of out of many one- E Pluribus Unum. Yet out of this crisis something good can emerge if a way is found, and leadership is needed in the right direction with the right ideas, consistent with the ideals that guided the best leaders from its past. What resentment, alienation and wrong direction cannot do, courage, perseverance and right direction can do.     ...

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More proof that China's real estate prices resemble the period of the bubble in real estate prices in Tokyo in the late 1980's. One parking space goes for $760,000 in Hong Kong in a luxury development.