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The Nobel Prize Committee's views on free expression of opinion in China, and the selection of Liu Xiaobo for the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize. Thorbjorn Jagland, chairman of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, points out that it is not an interference in China's internal affairs, because international human rights law and standards are above the nation-state, and the world community has a duty to ensure that they are respected. Jagland says the issue is universal human rights and the check on arbitrary majorities around the world. Even if the country is not a constitutional democracy, it is a member of the United Nations, and it has amended its Constitution to comply with the Declaration of Human Rights. The Nobel Committee chairman points to two other selections for the Nobel Prize, that of Andrei Sakharov of Russia, and of Rev. Martin Luther King of the U.S., as evidence that the Nobel Committee has stood up for universal human rights for a long time.

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A NYT report on Donald Trump's long standing relationship with his lawyer Roy Cohn,  who was also an advisor to Senator Joseph McCarthy. The report says Roy Cohn used aggressive legal tactics in lawsuits and influenced Trump's style of doing business in his real estate dealings. It is a detailed report of Roy Cohn's influence on Trump, which the reporters say has influenced the way  Trump ran his 2016 election campaign. It shows Cohn as protecting Trump in lawsuits, and Cohn's sense that Trump would someday play a big role in New York's real estate business, as Cohn's first meeting with Trump started when Trump was beginning his career in the early 70's. 

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Astra Zeneca vaccine effectiveness gets a new boost from the late stage trial results for US, Chile and Peru that has 32,000 volunteers. The study shows Astra Zeneca vaccine 100% effective to prevent hospitalization and deaths, and 79% effective to prevent symptomatic illness. The vaccine is also known as the Oxford vaccine because it was developed at labs in Oxford University, England.

The vaccine is now preparing for US FDA regulatory approval. Its worldwide use will give new hope to the world's population because it is being given at cost and can be stored in ordinary refrigerators for long periods. Conditions that give it wide access in poor countries. It is also manufactured in India by The Serum Institute, one of the largest vaccine manufacturing labs in the world, which would make it possible to make the billions of doses needed.

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In Britain, in India and in the EU, the race is between the vaccination drive and the infection case growth, as each country and region takes steps to accelerate and organize production, distribution and administering of the vaccine to all parts of the population.

The latest late stage trial for Astra Zeneca vaccine in US, Chile and Peru, offers new hope. It is shown in that trial that it is 100% effective in prevention of hospitalization and deaths, and 79% effective in prevention of symptomatic illness from the coronavirus. It is also seen as safe by experts as it goes for FDA regulatory approval in the US. It is provided at cost, and storage is in ordinary refrigerators for long periods, with production in India of large quantities of the vaccine, making it a vaccine that could reach large parts of the world's population.

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Poland's collapsing birth rate at 1.0 compared 1.62 in France another Catholic country, and Spain's 1.1, Germany's 1.3- 2.1 is the replacement rate per woman. This has profound consequences for Poland. The future workforce will be 20% smaller compared to 4% smaller in France in 2 decades. Many schools will close in rural areas which are hit hard. There are more deaths than births in many small towns. At this rate 1.7 million homes will become vacant in 2 decades.This report looks at Warsaw as well as rural areas near Belarus where the war has created much anxiety. The population of Poland will shrink from 36 million to 31 million over three decades if these trends continue. By 2000 the birhtrate dropped from 2.1 to 1.3 and the government introduced payments of 190 euros per child per month and expanded the childcare system. But this has not helped as the rate dropped to 1.03 in 2025. Under the Communist system industries were located in small towns and men stayed there while women moved to cities leading to a mismathch for men and women. The economic boom that doubled per capita income led to less interest in having children. The economy was supported by long hours of work which led to less interest in bearing children for women. Other reasons are a lack of interest in sharing and making the effort, the cost of raising children in a hyper competitive society like South Korea where births are at 0.7. ...

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Ecuadorean immigrant is killed in a fatal stabbing by seven teenagers in Long Island. Suffolk County executive is considered to have aroused racial hatred with comments and actions against immigrants and undocumented workers. His words says the Times have made hime popular with racist areas in Long Island.

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House Speaker Paul Ryan endorses Donald Trump after a long period of reflection.

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Osipova and Castle provide details about the personal life of Theresa May, the new British prime minister. May was only 25 when her father died in a car crash and her mother died soon after from multiple sclerosis. This has made her come closer to her husband Philip whom she met at Oxford, where they bonded over a love of cricket and debates at the university. She was interested in Tory politics from a young age, but has her own style of hard work and dislikes the chumocracy in British Conservative Party politics that prevailed under David Cameron. Unlike Cameron who was brash and confident to the point of making bold moves such as the decision to call a referendum as election year politics and did not consider carefully the impact of the austerity programs on Britain's working class; May is thoughtful and has been critical of the long period of deficit cutting austerity under Cameron and Osborne. She loves cooking and has a library of over 100 cookbooks, loves clothes and is carefully dressed for each event. Her matter of fact way to get on with it also has to do with her response to diabetes, with 4 injections a day her thought is "to just deal with it." She and her husband worked in investment banking, before her election as MP from Maidenhead, a constituency near London, on the third attempt. In an interview with the Daily Telegraph she has described the woman she is often compared to, Angela Merkel of Germany, as someone who doesn't get enough appreciaton. For May Merkel has actually achieved something significant by "steering Germany through a difficult time," and with her negotiation abilities during the eurozone crisis proved her resourcefulness, "hats off to her," says May. ...

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Brexit negotiation guidelines from the EU rule out parallel talks on both Britian's future relationship with the EU and the separation agreement negotiations, preferring a phased approach. Only when the first phase of separation is complete or at an advanced stage would the second phase of future relationship with the EU be negotiated. The EU Council president, Donald Tusk, says the process would be long, complex and at times confrontational. Der Spiegel online writing on the negotiation describes the approach in a meeting with the lead German negotiator Mr. Oettinger, on the team of Michael Barnier who leads the negotiations for the EU- Oettinger focussed on what Britain owes the EU, estimated at over 60 billion euros. So far apart are the British and EU positions that Michael Barnier has no idea on the pathway for these negotiations, only awareness of the priorities such as the rights of EU and British citizens in each others region, says Der Spiegel. Looking at Theresa May speaking in parliament about her decision to move forward with Brexit in a letter to the EU invoking Article 50, one senses a mixture of confidence and nationalist appeal, far different from reality on the ground. The Leader of the Opposition cited government figures for a sharp decline in GDP as a result of Brexit, and the Scottish leader in parliament went so far as to say the government attitude in negotiations made "Scottish independence inevitable"- all headwinds Theresa May appears to be ignoring or treating with disdain. At this time the EU and the British prime minister appear to be talking over rather than to each other.   ...

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The famous Chilean author of books including: A Long Petal of the Sea, talks to the BBC about her life and travels, about her home country Chile. She left Chile in 1975, spent 13 years in Venezuela and three decades in California. Here she talks about Chile as Pablo Neruda describes it as that long petal on the sea, a country with an insular mentality surrounded by high Andes range, Patagonia, and the Atacama desert. She is not entirely critical of Chile's development under the administrations that came after the dictatorship years. Chile has some upward mobility, the economic conditions have improved compared to the rest of Latin America even though a lot remains to be done. The events in Venezuela show the limits of regimes that have attempted change. Even with administrations from both ends of the spectrum Argentina has turned to the IMF in economic crisis the last in 2018. Brazil has seen a commodities boom followed by a severe bust, and the lack of funding for basic services including sanitation and health. This gives a sobering view of the economic situation in Latin America. Allende says Chile has modernized and created prosperity though at some social cost.  Isabel Allende is still nostalgic about her home country and still calls it home as she reaches 75 years, with a world wide audience for her books in 42 languages, 70 million copies sold. ...

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The plans for 20 liquefied natural gas projects are being launched or sped up in the EU which would give about 83% of the natural gas imported by the EU from Russia in 2021. LNG produces half of the carbon dioxide emissions of coal and Europe sees it as a transitional fuel. The EU plans a 14% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 2020, and a lot of this will come from a massive expansion of wind and solar energy, and using energy more efficiently.

Doubling down on LNG means the EU will find itself into many long term commitments to LNG that would hurt the effort to meet climate change action goals say experts.

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President Biden's plan to reduce payments to 5% of income instead of 10% for income driven payments on student loans. Loan balances would not grow as long as payments are made. After 10 years of payments student loan balances would be forgiven where balances are less than $12000 in place of the current 20 years.   This is the first effort to create a student loan safety net. Borrowers making less than $30,600 as individuals or $64,200 for a family of four will not be required to make monthly payments on loans. Under the current system loan balances kept growing till borrowers were left with huge and often unpayable student undergraduate loans.

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Raila Odinga runs for a third time in the Kenyan elections. He ran against Uhuru Kenyatta in the 2013 and 2017 elections. After supporting his deputy vice president William Ruto for president, Kenyatta shifts to Odinga. The Times looks at Kenya today and the current election in a country long split along tribal lines with the Kikuyu tribe of Kenyatta family dominating  since independence. In the 2007 election Odinga ran against Mwai Kibaki with the results being considered flawed even though Kibaki was made president. A reconciliation after post election violence was arranged by Kofi Annan, UN Secretary General. In that arrangement Odinga was made prime minister. This is the fourth time Odinga at 77 years is contesting the election.

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Spencer Silver working in 3M labs in Minnesota found a rubbery substance that left no residue and held two surfaces together, It took 10 years before he found a use for it. Most inventing starts accidentally and the use is only found later sometimes taking many years. This is the story of inventing in America and Europe for the last 300 years. This is true for Medicine discoveries happening by accident. It is time for America to return to inventing and investing in its labs and long term research. Efforts which will bring results in improving medicine, health and quality of life. Too much time and resources have been invested in the wrong places for short term results.

 

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"Wars have been lost because of logistics," says the director of logistics and engineering in US Central Command. Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges says the Russian logistics system is exhausted- that it was never setup in a way that it could support a long conflict outside of Russia. It has smaller fleets of trucks and is dependent on rail lines in the south near Kherson and Crimea that have been hit. These trucks now have to travel longer distances to supply the troops. Damaged bridges also lead to difficult supply conditions. Ukraine seeks to use this has a way to push Russia out of Kherson and other region in and near Crimea along the Black Sea.

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Shruti Sharma, Ankita Agrawal, and Gamini Singla are in the top 1, 2, and 3 ranking in the 2021 Civil Service examinations conducted by the Union Public Service Commission. All three women say it was a long and difficult journey. Women are now in parity with men in higher education yet in the Indian Civil Service women make up only 26%. Women can provide the empathy needed for development in smaller towns and villages as they take up positions in these areas early in their IAS career. More women need to take up careers in the Civil Service to provide the kind of leadership needed in running the country that India needs at a critical time in its move forward in development and modernization.

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Medicare Supplemental insurance (also called Medigap) covers out of pocket cost that are not covered by Medicare Advantage. Over long period of retirement thes plans offer the best protection from unanticipated costs. The Plans use alphabetical leters A B C D F G K L M N with F discontinued. And are standardized, meaning regardless of insurer or state you are in they are the same being set by the US federal government. These plans are sold by private insurers the largest being AARP plan by United Healthcare. One can join when enrolling for Medicare Part B when premiums are usually better yet one can also join afterwards. About 36% of Medicare holders have Medicare Supplemental or Medigap policies for health insurance.

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Biden as president for 2024 and the matter of age is the subject of this report in WSJ. For too long the press has looked at president Biden's age as drawback ignoring his vast experience, and not Trump's only 3 years younger with poor food and exercise habits and overweight, as pointed out by Duke University Prof. Frank Bruni in the NYT. Here the WSJ at last shows that half of Americans born in 1942 are alive, with many of them about 650,000 working, 18% more than a decade earlier, according to Census Bureau. The saying is that 80 years is the new 60, because of advances in medicine, given healthy habits and exercise. 

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The first presidential debate with Clinton and Trump is moderated by Lester Holt. The debate included an exchange on Trump's tax returns, policing in inner cities, and national security. The debate was broadcast by all television stations and was watched by over 100 million viewers. Trump made three times the interruptions made by Clinton. The birther issue raised by Trump also came up, and was cited as a "hurtful lie" by Clinton as it persisted long after the birth certificate information was seen by the public. In one exchange Clinton told Trump when he referred to all the infrastructure that had not been built, that one of the reasons was he had not payed taxes.

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NYT's Keith Bradsher points out that weak sales in interior of China, and construction industry no longer supporting the economy, is leading to the new policy of pushing solar/EV's exports and sales overseas. These industries are state promoted with hidden subsidies of land, energy, and labor pool that the US lacks in similar subsidies- subsidies treated with theory arrogance in the US by economists who lack a grasp of the realities of manufacturing and trade. President Biden is freeing US industry from this stranglehold of weak economic theory that has too long beset US industry, by supporting American industry in every way possible, protecting and enlarging American manufacturing, and CHIPS technology scientific endeavors.

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China has made a $7 billion investment in road and bridges in Bangladesh. The six kilometer long road and rail bridge over the Padma river was built by China. A 48 kilometer 4 lane highway around Dhaka will be completed in 2025 through China's development assistance. In all 12 roads 21 bridges, and 27 power plants during the Hasina administration, creating 550,000 jobs says Yao Wen, Chinese ambassador to Bangladesh. Other projects are built with Indian assistance trying to keep a balance between the two neighbors. A project over the Teesta river was assigned to India. A naval base south of Chittagong, the BNS Sheikh Hasina, was opened in 2023 with Chinese assistance.

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Peter Baker of the New York Times takes a detailed look at Obama and the Presidency in October 2010. He has a long informal interview with President Obama, and uses his knowledge of prior Presidents, to provide a revealing look at Obama's first term in office upto this point. It provides an exceptionally insightful look at the man and his administration, in all its facets, facets that have create both hope and disillusionment. Obama comes across as the cerebral person even in his musings about popular disappointment with the administration, and does not seem connected with the gut-wrenching issues of jobs, foreclosures, the economy, and the economic future as a President needs to be. After all the inspirational rhetoric, Obama, says Baker, did not stay connected to the people who put him in office in the first place. And revealingly Baker shows that even today Obama talks only to a few insiders, compared to Clinton's wider circle, to understand what is happening in the country.

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One of the quirks of the unemployment rate released by the Labor Department is that it is declining- declined to 8.1% from 8.2%, from March to April 2012- even though the number of unemployed may be increasing. When adjusted for the discouraged workers who would be working today in a more normal environment the unemployment rate today would be around 11%. Crucial in grasping unemployment numbers is the labor force participation rate- showing the number of working age Americans with jobs or looking for jobs- which is affected by the number of baby boomers retiring and leaving the work force, and by the number of workers who are too discouraged to look for work. The long term unemployed currently form about 40% of people unemployed in the U.S., which is quite high and cause for concern for Fed chairman Bernanke. Many of these long term unemployed it is feared will permanently drop out of the workforce, causing a drop in the productive potential of the economy and lowering economic growth. Already many have dropped out of the workforce, causing the labor force participation rate to decline faster than the gradual decline seen in the last decade as baby boomers retire. Between 2009 and 2012, a three year period, the labor force participation rate dropped about 2% to 63.6%, compared to the normal drop of 1.3% over a seven year period from 2000 to 2007. Combining the impact of the two trends, one demographic and the other a result of the 2008 global financial crisis and excessive risks in the U.S. banking system, leads analysts to to lower the longer term economic growth forecast for the U.S. to 2%, compared to the U.S. Fed's forecast for 2.3-2.6% growth....

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European banks borrowed 529 billion euros from the ECB in Feb. 2012 at interest rate of 1% for three years.This follows the lending by the ECB of 489 billion euros to European banks in December 2011. The total lending now exceeds $1 trillion under the European Central Bank's Long Term Financing Operation. It is designed to inject additional liquidity into the European banking system and shore up confidence in the economy. This time 800 banks applied for loans compared to the 523 banks in December. The actual amount of money going to banks is about 520 billion euros as many banks moved money from shorter term ECB loans to the three year loans under the Long Term Refinancing Operation. The operation helped bring down the borrowing rates on Italian and Spanish bonds- the rate on Italian 10 year bonds is down to 5.2% as of Feb. 28, 2012. Spanish and Italian banks were able to borrow at 1% from the ECB and buy Italian and Spanish bonds paying 5%. Intessa Sanpaolo bank in Italy doubled its borrowing to 24 billion euros. Smaller banks, including banks in Germany, participated in the February 2012 ECB lending, moving the number of banks up to 800 this time. VW's financing arm also borrowed under this operation so that it could provide credit to customers....