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The NYT covers the GAESA tourism enterprise of Cuba (that operates independent of the government of Cuba) that overinvested in Tourism at the expense of agriculture industry and infrastructure during the Obama administration, leading to collapse with Trump's 2014 embargo on Cuba. GAESA controls about 50% of Cuba's economy, run by military and people from Castro's family.  That left 121 hotels built in the boom years of tourism at 30 percent occupancy. The Iberostar high rise hotel is one of these hotels that rises over dilapidated housing in Havana, the Cuban capital. The investment in tourism by the GAESA enterprise that runs about 50% of the Cuban economy is 13 times what is spent on healthcare and education, says the NYT. The Castro family, Raul Castro family, runs this business venture that was started when the Soviet Union as sponsor of Cuba had collapsed by 1991. The NYT says this 'devolved' the ideas and promise of the revolution. "Devolved?" What kind of word to describe a complete loss of faith, and enormous failure with severe hardship for the Cuban people? It means the whole idea of communism or Marxist revolution has been proven false, even as it survives in Mexico and parts of Latin America. One can be against the Batista regime- similarly against corrupt regimes in Latin America or Asia- that ruled Cuba before the Castro Cuban revolution and still look for better choices and alternatives than what Castro came up with as an answer to Cuba's needs. Much of Latin America is suffering from the same problems of dictatorships and turning to Marxist alternatives - particularly the alternative put forward by Castro in Cuba- that has also destroyed the Venezuelan economy with Chavez's turn to Castro's Cuban revolutionary slogans and ideology. That came up with temporary solutions for the poorer sections of society, yet failed badly for all sections of society in the long term. How else can one explain one fourth of Venezuela's population and about the same of Cuba's leaving the country, some of those who left the critical human capital that would form the core of the human input to combine with capital and technology for advancing the economy. If Cuba were like the Dominican Republic or other parts of the Caribbean to depend on tourism for its national income then would it not be better to have friendly relations with the US, the main source of tourism revenue. The Obama administration was only holding up a failed idea by holding out a helping hand to tourism in Cuba knowing full well that a change to a Republican administration would simply lead to heavy investments in tourism at the neglect of infrastructure, public services and the economy, of health and education, to become large economic losses. This is what has happened.  As China and India have proven and are proving there are no magical ways to economic development- the same route that was traveled by the nations of Northern and Western Europe with scientific advances, technological advances, have to be taken, the same route that was traveled by the US in its industrial revolution and building of infrastructure, that same route has to be taken by all nations. It does not have to take a time period of centuries as in Europe. The US accomplished it faster with new technologies and vast human and natural resources over 100 years, Japan in 50 years, China in 30 years. India in 25 years ongoing.There is room for intelligent solutions to problems, for speed and tapping into new technologies, yet the same inputs of land, labour, capital and technology have to be put together for development. For states or regions, cities, within China and India, the same inputs, the same access to foreign investment and new technologies is the only route to rapid development. Long range plans are set in motion, decades of stable efficient, clean governance is put in place, and alliances are built with the nations of Europe and with the US. This road is traversed though hard work as Japan and China have done, and India today is thoroughly engaged in. ...

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Elections in Nigeria on February 16 are seen as a referendum on president Buhari's first term. 84 million voters will chose who will lead Nigeria, Africa's largest democracy. The choice is between Mr. Buhari and Mr. Atiku Abubakar, Mr. Buhari won office in 2015 with his All Progressive's Party on three promises of ridding Nigeria of endemic corruption, fixing the economy, and tackling security issues. The economy entered a recession and then climbed out of recession under Buhari. Mr. Atiku plans to privatize parts of the state owned oil company, a plan which has been received with some skepticism considering problems with privatization around the world. A remarkable aspect of this election is that half of registered voters are aged 18-35, who see their leaders as out of touch. In fact many are supporting a "Not Too Young to Run" campaign to encourage younger people to run. 2015 was the only time Nigeria had a peaceful transfer of power since civilian government was installed in 1999. The candidate with the most votes is declared winner if they have at least one quarter of the votes in two thirds of Nigeria's 36 states and the capital Abuja. Nigerians look for someone who will unite the country as the  democratic process is only now being popularized and planted in Nigeria. This is not an overstatement as Nigeria has Muslim North and Christian South, and 200 ethnic groups.  ...

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The Bernie Sanders 2016 U.S. presidential campaign is compared to the Howard Dean 2004 U.S. presidential campaign. Both are from Vermont- Sanders was Mayor of Burlington, Dean was governor of Vermont. Dean and Sanders draw many white, educated, affluent voters to their campaign rallies. Yet the situation in 2015 is different. Dean's major issue was his opposition to the Iraq war started in 2003. Sanders says his position is more class based, and calls for a revolution to help working class Americans gain upward mobility as wages remain stagnant, and educational opportunity restricted. The Democratic Party today is also different, with more ethnic voters, and 40% female.

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The government of Theresa May and the EU appear to be on a collision course with the release of the EU draft legal agreement that says Northern Ireland must remain in the customs union and future arbitration or appeal would be under the European Court of Justice.

Ireland favors the EU draft and sees it as a default solution to avoiding a hard border with Northern Ireland if it becomes necessary. Theresa May and the DUP party of Ireland on whom the prime minister depends for her coalition government's thin majority support in parliament, both reject the EU solution. 

The Labor Party says it would solve the Irish border issue by entering into a new customs union with the EU, so that no checks are needed at the border for people and goods. The Labor party sees it as vital to prevent any effort to undermine the Good Friday Agreement that forms the basis of the peace in Northern Ireland.

 

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Socialist Party in Spain increases its share of the vote to 29%, and emerges as the largest party to form a government with the socialist leaning Podemos party in 2019 elections. It does this by returning to its labour base and working class roots. It pitches a platform of worker's rights, higher taxes on wealthy, environmental roots, issues important to its social democratic roots. The WSJ cites a 57 year old employee of Spain's health service Antonio Benitez, living in Andalusia who says people have a hard time making ends meet, and its about time socialist parties speak of the main pillars of being socialist, without all the deviations to the centre. As free market thinking entered the mindset of leaders in the UK such as Tony Blair and Gerhard Scroder in Germany, Clinton in the U.S., the shift began towards economic efficiency in the tradeoff with equality and social justice. This was aggravated by the effects of international trade and technology in worsening income disparities and unsettling communities in traditional manufacturing. This trend is now being reversed as Socialist parties or Labour allied parties in the UK, Spain,and increasingly in the U.S., take a new position different from the past. A political scientist at the Free University of Amsterdam says its like these parties got hit on the head and now decided to go back to core values around equality, reducing disparities, social justice and the environment. Jeremy Corbyn of the Labour Party in Britain increased Labour's vote in the 2017 elections to 40% up from 30% in 2015. Italy's Socialists won 41% of the vote in 2014 European elections, moved to the centrist positions that made firing workers easier, pension overhauls raising retirement age, leading to losing half its support with 21% ahead of European elections in 2019. Pedro Sanchez of Spain raised the minimum wage by 22% before winning the 2019 elections compared to his predecessor Socialist premier Zapatero who is reported to have said "cutting taxes is left wing." Now workers rights and higher taxes on corporation are on the agenda.  ...

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Sebarros of the WSJ takes a closer look at the key words used by U.S. president Trump in rallies in city after city during the 2016 election campaign and in the months before the Congressional elections in 2018. Analysis by the WSJ counted the unique two word phrases, how often Trump highlighted topics, the content of audience respones in 48 post election rally speeches through Oct 27.  In 2018 the words "tax cuts,"fake news," and "health care," appeared more often than in 2017 after the Republican party's win in passing a tax cut. Other phrases used frequently were "law enforcement," "North Korea," and "Supreme Court" after the win in nominating Judge Kavanaugh. The use of the 2 word phrases are carefully done. The words "fake news" were not used during sensitive periods such as when pipe bombs were mailed to government offices, yet resumed few weeks later. His own name is the seventh most used word, even for someone such as Mr. Trump, showing that behind the impromptu remarks there is a carefully worded effort to steer voters in a particular direction with carefully developed appeals. Another example is when the Dow Jones averages were reaching new highs in September and October Mr. Trump highlighted the stock market growth, and then when volatility increased by November said much less on this topic. Graphs by Jessica Wang provide a good look at how frequently and in what manner Mr. Trump has continued his unique campaigning style before the 2018 Congressional elections, with two word appeals to already receptive audiences. The audience participation is a singular feature and the words "U.S.A." were used in 85% of the rallies with "Build that Wall" at 65% as the next most frequent.  Much of it is repetitive in city after city and the WSJ analysis shows that the major television networks including Fox News are not covering the speeches from beginning to end as they did before, only C-Span public network does. To receptive audiences in carefully scripted surroundings, including larger ones such as the Toyota Center Houston, where larger numbers of supporters worried about immigration, health care, trade, and other issues can come together, president Trump has rallied core supporters with this kind of appeal. ...

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David Brooks on the candidacy for U.S. President of Senator Rick Santorum. He says Santorum genuinely represents the working class- a grandson of a coal miner and the son of Italian immigrants who has represented workers of the steel manufacturing region of western Pennsylvania. Santorum has pushed hard in this campaign largely ignored by the media. He has visited 370 towns riding in a pickup truck trying to cover as much ground as possible and talking with great conviction about his positions distant from the corporate and financial wings of the Republican party, about family, and communities. Bring someone like Sherrod Brown of Ohio together with someone like Rick Santorum and you have good representation of the working class across the political spectrum to win this election for the working class of America, says Brooks, who sees this as a lot better alternative today than Harvard Law.

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Childcare cost are up much higher than the inflation rate. Costs of care for two children in summer can go up to $2500 a month in Minnesota and other parts of the country more than the cost of the home mortgage.

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This commentary in the WSJ says it is essential that the U.S. get back manufacturing of all technological goods back to the U.S. or its allies. The dangers of depending on China or other countries not clearly allied with the U.S. is quite clear especially after the pandemic. The U.S. and European supply chains need to be completely remade, restructured, to avoid dependence on China or countries that are not allies. This is what supply chain renewal is about. Yet initiatives alone with hundreds of billions of dollars price tag re not the answer to the problem. What is needed are specific targeted actions such government direct assistance to key sectors to ensure U.S. technological advantages in worldwide competition. Giving a hole range of incentives and direct financial support to industries making everything from electronic and computer components to high tech parts that go to defense and civilian production.   The U.S educational component in this puzzle is university students in all high tech courses which should be kept for U.S. citizens or from key allied nations at American universities. The manufacturing base would mean securing incentives and aid to manufacturing industries, component by component, part by part, to secure American leadership and distinct advantage.  Job losses have to be reversed and industries relocated back to the U.S. And only in cases where it is advantageous to manufacture overseas to relocate in allied countries India, Japan or South Korea. U.S. labor has to be brought into the picture as a key participant in the national interest and given an important role. R& D efforts have to be developed component by component, technological part by part, and technology by technology, so that a systematic plan can be followed to secure American leadership for the rest of this century, is what experts including this one say is required today. ...

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The Brexit issues and Tory leaders talking to their supporters has and effect on French British relations. Macron comments on UK Foreign Secretary and likely prime minister Liz Truss's recent remarks that "the jury is out" on whether the French president Macron was "friend or foe." Macron says "its not good to lose your bearings too much." He says in answering the same question "I would not hesitate for a second. France is a friend of the British people." It all goes to show how British relations with France have been affected under the Conservatives party.

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This  article by the WSJ Editorial Board says Mr. Trump acted in a way that was reckless and arrogant in responding to the subpoena by the government. It calls it narcissism and poor judgement not to cooperate in a matter related to documents of national security implications. It says the manner of treatment of these highly sensitive documents showed complete disregard of expected behaviour in such situations. It calls "owning the libs" discourse pursued by some in the Republican party, of waging culture wars, a dead end that serves no purpose and does little to build a better stronger America.

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Spain's conservative Partido Popular party wins 44.6% of the vote and 186 seats in parliament for an absolute majority. This follows a strong win for the party in regional and municipal elections, giving it control of local and regional governments in addition to the federal government. The Socialist party received 28.7% of the vote, a record low.

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An outline of ways in which the Biden $1.9 trillion aid package will help ordinary Americans hit hard by the pandemic- the unemployed, people on low incomes, part time workers, the poor, and the struggling working class.

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After meeting with Rishi Sunak, the Finance Minister and the Business Secretary Alok Sharma prime minister Johnson is keen on getting things to as normal as possible in the summer to save jobs. About 3 million jobs could be lost, some permanently if businesses cannot open by summer, especially in the hospitality industry. This could push unemployment up from 1.3 million  to 2 million. The Times reports that at one point in the meeting Johnson said "Christ!" In mid March after he had the virus and Britain saw a surge in cases Johnson made health a priority even quoting Cicero in Latin that the health of the nation was the priority. Now this is changing with the jobs situation becoming a major risk. Much of the loss of jobs is likely say experts in the red wall districts that Johnson took from the Labour party in the election, and the prime minister feels a special responsibility to these districts. Johnson also said at one point about youth unemployment 18 to 24 years that is bleak, that he wanted to have an apprenticeship for every young person. The critical R rate is higher in the northwest and the southwest of England, compared to London. In England overall it is between 0.7 and 0.9. It needs to be around 1 to avoid spreading the virus.  As part of the social distancing guidelines ministers are also discussing changing the distancing on public transport so that it is 1 metre instead of 2 metres, so that reopening to get back to close to normal can be done sooner.     ...

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Questions China faces on AI- 17% high youth unemployment and 200 million young people in the gig economy in low wage demanding work. Chinese Communist party wants to see a stable China that can pursue industrial progress for decades like the European Union and the US. For this reason it is not going to let this level of dissatisfaction with high youth unemployment and low wage demanding work for young people to go to the next level. For this reason it will carefully make investments in AI -not the hyper investments in AI that are taking place in the US. The competition with China is going to take place on many fronts, and the industrial bloc created by the EU with India and Nordics has a 15 year plan during which it and the US are likely to far exceed anything China does at a slower rate of growth. As in the US choices will have to be made in China, investment in one area means disinvestment in other areas that have equal or more priority. Today's capital markets are in complete dysfunction in the US operated by a few banks and tech company leaders, similar to the situation prevailing in pharmaceuticals and healthcare. Investment priorities and planning are needed. It is a major error to say US cannot plan that capitalism does not have planning, because it is absolutely true that planning goes on at every level in American companies with Xerox, IBM, Oil Companies and other large companies, all having a Long Range Plan as well as planning for individual projects and investments in plants. If a good infrastructure plan, project by project, state by state, and at the local level, is not put in place this will simply not take place. If no good reindustrialization plan, project by project, state by state, and at the local level, is not put in place, this will simply not take place. In that case the competition with China would surely be lost before it had begun. Yet that is surely not the case, as every good American company has a long term plan. And this plan looks at all the potential investments the Nation can and should make in priorities and in the interests of the Nation and the People. All have to compete for resources and AI surely would not get the lions share of resources in China, or in the US, in a fair and well run market system where planning rightly takes place, because it would displace the very basic structure of a fair and well balanced economy that serves the American people, or the people of European Union and India, or the people of China. ...

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The Journal editorial title suggests that Greece chose economic decline. It puts the responsibility for this choice on one political party that lied about its fiscal position, and another party that failed to take strong action. The government unions were uncooperative and resisted making changes. Making matters worse was policy from the EU that misread the Greece situation as a liquidity problem, and not as a solvency problem considering the huge debt Greece has piled up. And austerity measures pushed by the EU are doing little for growth- leading to an acceleration in the economic decline in recent months.

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In 1867 the Alaska Purchase was also being mocked in the media. When Russia's Czar Peter the Great sent Vitus Bering to explore the Alaskan coast in 1725 there were Inuits living there. Russians slaughtered many Inuits to set up their base, says historian James Gibson in the Wilson Quarterly, cited in The Washington Post. It was the Russian czar who initiated the effort to sell Alaska to the US after Britain and France fought a war and defeated Russia in the Crimean War. These European wars in some ways have been going on in Northern Europe for many centuries and down to this day. What this tells us is that Russia treated Alaska as a colony and this is how a colonial power like Denmark treated the Inuits in Greenland. Denmark has treated Greenland harshly and now makes it look like it is interested in Greenland's people. Denmark is a small country with a population of 6 million less than the population of the Houston area, and Greenland's population of 50,000 would not fill a baseball stadium. It is disingenuous and false of Denmark to pretend to be anything other than a colonial power like the British, the French and the Dutch with little interest in the well being and economic development of the people of their colonies. If Greenland is developed the way US has developed Alaska, and the US can and will do this, Greenland is so much better becoming part of the US, completing the security of the entire eastern seaboard of the US that was envisaged by American president after American president since Jefferson, Madison, Andrew Johnson and Harry Truman for the last two hundred years. ...

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Mira Patel provides this report in great detail on how Indians living in the UK have grown from a tiny minority of 30,000 before independence in 1947 with little recognition in the UK to a population of 250,000 by 1961. In the years after 1945 many of the Sikhs and Punjabis in the British Army stayed in the UK. Two more waves of migration followed one with the East African Indians coming to the UK and one with Sikhs going to the UK. Race Relations Act of 1968 and a bill in 1961 changed the nature of immigrants to more professional people and students to maintain racial balance. By 1971 there were 483,000 Indians in the UK. Even today with 1.4 million Indians in the UK this forms only 2.5% of the UK population. Rishi Sunak and Priti Patel have important positions in the 2 year old Boris Johnson government yet too much can be read into this. Both are not deeply popular among the British public. Penny Mordaunt is the favorite at the grassroots of the Conservative Party. When one looks at the immigrant communities of Indians in the UK at one time in the 1880's only one MP Dadabhai Naoroji was in the British parliament. Today there are several ministers but mostly in a collapsing Conservative party administration of Boris Johnson. By comparison most of the Indian community migration in America has developed deeper roots and merged with the consciousness of the American society and public. Sunak and Patel are seen by most of the Labour grassroots as elitist, a kind of Macaulay class that Mira Patel describes. Macaulay a Britisher of the period of the British East India Company described the need in 1800's for a class of Indians "Indian in blood and color, but English in taste, in opinion, in morals, and in intellect." This Indian diaspora is a distinct Indian entity which is why it is a class of Indians that Macaulay coveted says Mira Patel, but one that she says forms leaders in Britain not leaders in India. In some ways the US is different with less of the class society that the Empire and the Tory party represent. And in this way formed under a country that fought this very same Empire the Indian community in the US seems to have integrated into the vision of Washington, Jefferson and Lincoln in ways that cannot be imagined in Britain or in Europe. ...

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Shortage of oxygen supplies is increasing deaths from the pandemic  in Los Angeles, parts of Brazil and in African countries.

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US South Korea Trade Agreement with 15% tariff similar to Japan,  $350 billion  US "owned controlled" investments and $100 billion in energy purchases, all part of the agreement. After Japan the EU and South Korea have quickly followed in making agreements with the US on trade for a level playing field. 

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The recent appointment of fast food executive Andrew Puzder as Labor Secretary has caused great concern among union leaders. Puzder supports a $9 minimum wage compared to $15 supported by Democrats. Unions now represent 7% of the labor force, down from a high of 20% during Reagan's time when Reagan appointed a construction company executive as Labor Secretary and cut regulations.  Globalization has thinned the ranks of workers in unions. And the failure of Democratic administrations to stem the shift of factories overseas to China, Mexico and other places, as part of global supply chains focussed on cost, has weakened Democratic support among workers since the period of Bill Clinton. It eroded to the point where Obama won 65% of support among unions and Hillary Clinton won 56% in 2016. Interestingly the Republican Romney gained 33% versus 37% for Trump, showing voters were more inclined to move away from Democrats and only a smaller number willing to support Republicans, but the shift enough to give Republicans a win in 2016 for the presidency. The figures are from a Election Day survey of trade union AFL-CIO, and a larger proportion in midwestern states showed disaffection with policies from Clinton to Obama. In fact Obama spent years promoting another free trade agreement TPP that favored tech more than auto and older industries, just as Bill Clinton had promoted NAFTA, without giving thought to what this was doing to its worker base of support. A similar situation happened with Social Democrats in Germany as a SPD administration moved to the centre and handed Christian Democrats led by Merkel a win in parliamentary elections. As Democrats such as former Labor Secretary Reich, a professor at UC Berkeley who served under Bill Clinton, describe the problems of working class people their is less reflection on the impact of the changes from globalization and how Democrats handled or mishandled it, and more on the politics between the two parties.   ...

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Cohn and Monkovic of the NYT show how the shift of blacks, hispanics, and white collar professionals is doing to the demographics in the eastern, coastal and southern states, and how this will impact 2016 and future presidential elections in the U.S. This includes North and South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Virginia, and Florida. It means the electoral map may have changed by 2016 and 2020, as the less educated voters in rural areas are balanced by a growing minority and white collar vote in the suburbs and major cities of the South.

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As part of sanctions on Russia the price of diesel will be capped at $100 by the US and the rest of the G-7 countries.

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This WSJ report is part of its ongoing investigation of the origins of the coronavirus and the role of a risky coronavirus research study in Wuhan, China.

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The Guardian provides a visual guide with maps and pictures of the collapse of Francis Scott Key Bridge that crosses the outer part of Baltimore harbor.