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The former interim Speaker Rep. Patrick McHenry, Republican North Carolina, tells a University of Chicago student audience that one can hold off a majority Congressmen only for so long, that there could be a two third majority in the House favoring the Ukraine aid. That bill for $61 billion in Ukraine aid passed the US Senate 70-30 with 22 Republican Senators supporting it but is blocked for 2 weeks by Speaker Mike Johnson for a House vote. Former Speaker Paul Ryan of Wisconsin tell a Washington Post event that House Speaker Mike Johnson has to make up his mind to be decisive and take action that get things done. Ryan served as vice presidential nominee and became Speaker in October 2015 eight years before Mike Johnson in a similar situation where his job depended on different factions. Mike Johnson's view is that he wants to be seen as listening to all members to kind of decentralizing things. Yet as more experienced members of Congress say the only way to get things done is for the Speaker to take action on his own accord and let the situation rest there having done his best. This situation is happening today in the House as about half of all Congressmen in the House of Representatives have not served in Congress before January 2019, says The Washington Post. ...

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Will a war in Ukraine affect the world's food supplies? Yes here is how. It would affect mainly the countries of North Africa that depend on wheat imports from Ukraine and Russia. Egypt is the largest importer. Many of these countries depend on imports to keep their people fed. The cost of shipping it is less from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine and Russia than if this wheat came all the way from America or Australia.  Much of Ukraine's wheat grows in the Kharkiv Oblast region in eastern Ukraine close to the border with Russia. With Russia putting 100,000 troops and prepared for an invasion of Ukraine both sides could be affected. Of the approximately 200 million metric tons of exports of wheat each year Russia and Ukraine make up about 29% or about 65 million metric tons. About two thirds of this from Russia and one third from Ukraine. Prices of wheat are already at an high of $310 a metric ton. Experts say this could double in the case of war or go up 20% even in a minor incursion. Western sanctions would affect Russian exports of wheat on top of the effects of war and devastated agriculture in Ukraine. When there are wars there are ripple effects- in this case all the way to North Africa.  ...

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On the idea that America is losing faith when it is losing churchgoing people it should be said that during the Second Awakening in the 1850's America was struggling against the sin of slavery. The country and Evangelicals rallied around Lincoln who had an unconventional idea of Christian beliefs coming directly from reading the bible not churchgoing.   Lincoln was denied the Whig nomination for Congress in 1843 and faced Evangelical opposition in the 1846 Congressional election which he won against an evangelist Cartwright, because of his unconventional views on Christianity coming from reading the Bible. The Lincoln Association of Springfield reports that during the dark days of 1862 Miner tells Lincoln that Christians are praying for you as they have never prayed before, and Lincoln replies "If I were not sustained by the prayers of God's people I could not endure this constant pressure. I would give up hoping for success."   Americans are less church going today than at previous times in history about 40 million Americans have stopped going to church in the last 25 years. This is evident among Presbyterians, Episcopalians, and Southern Baptists. White and Black congregations are affected in the same way, though less for Hispanics. Pew reports 63% of people in America identify as Christians, down from 78% in 2007.  ...

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Adam Taylor explains what Brexit is about. What should be added is that Brexit is a child of the time in 2015-2016 when Angela Merkel was ill prepared to tackle the sudden wave of migrants from North Africa from wars and population growth outstripping what little progress was made, making decisions to let in close to a million migrants. Migrants are now being returned back to their home countries and the issue has faded. The austerity policies in the EU with Greece, Spain and Portugal as bad poster childs for the EU are also largely over, with economic recovery in Europe.  As a result confidence is growing in the future of the European Union. What pessimists including Mr. Trump saw as a breakup of the European Union is no longer the case. Britain's long negotiations and divisions for Brexit are now reinforcing an opposite conclusion- that it is beneficial to stay in the European Union. Fully 68% in a Eurobarometer Survey of 27 EU countries by the European Commission in March 2019 think so, only 17% think it is not beneficial. In Britain also a majority now support membership in the EU. The European Union and Britain have a lot to learn from this experience and the divisions generated, which is likely to be part of the acquired experience of a new generation of leaders.  ...

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The FDA has handled the importation of masks from China badly says this report in WSJ. During the shortage FDA let 3500 Chinese manufacturers selling products of wide variations in quality to send masks to the U.S. Millions of these N95 masks are now available imported from China but their reliability is uncertain. The FDA even has the same manufacturers on approved and revoked approval lists creating more confusion. The FDA gave then revoked approval for products that failed quality standards.  The WSJ found that some of the companies given approval early were just weeks old and had not completed quality review by FDA. The WSJ reports that more than 60% of foreign made masks nearly all Chinese made failed basic U.S. government quality tests that reviewed 22 brands according to regulatory data. About one fifths of the makers were just weeks old and others made claims that were simply not correct. The FDA acted in a crisis situation so bad actors could take advantage of the situation say experts.  What happens now. The states of California,Washington and Texas are now checking their supplies of N95 masks to see if all the makers are on authorized lists and not revoked. Many doctors and hospitals are going through much anxiety because of the safety of their N95 masks in close contact situations in eyecare, dental care and other care, is now uncertain. ...

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Deep polarization is seen also in South Korea. Policy issues are not being discussed with eligible voters divided evenly among progressives in their 40's and 50's and conservatives over 60 years, and about 20% of the voting public that are independents and younger voters deciding the elections in South Korea. As in the US cost of living is an issue, down to the price of onions of which president Yoon is seen as not paying attention to. Conservative People Power Party of president Yoon is expected to gain only about 100 seats of 300 seats in the National Assembly in the parliamentary election in South Korea. Yoon won in a tight race with Lee a candidate from the Liberal Democratic Party in 2022, which is expected to win about 200 of 300 Assembly seats. Yoon is building a close relationship with the US and Japan and visited the US for talks with Biden. The election is not expected to affect the close relations of US with South Korea. It reflects the polarization in South Korea, Yoon's effort for corporate tax cuts may not go through. The opposition has made allegations of corruption and abuse of power, and the cost of living, as campaign issues. About a third of 44 million eligible voters have cast votes. Younger voters and moderates appear not to trust Yoon. ...

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Lyrarc Retrospect shows here RFK Robert Kennedy visiting homes sometimes mere shacks in the mountains where disease was rampant, education negligible, and income $60 for large families, shown here in this Washington Post report by  Paul Schwartzman, Feb 21, 2018  After J.D. Vance selection for VP and his book on growing up in Ohio's Appalachian mountain region which covers states of New York, Pennsyslvania, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, stretching from southern New York to northern Mississippi down the entire eastern part of the US, the question arises did the poverty in this region exist before? The answer is yes and two presidents JFK and LBJ, both Democrats setup the Appalachian Regional Commission to tackle rural poverty in the mountainous regions in 1960's. Its success- increased income by 4% faster than other neighboring counties in retrospect does not look like much. Rural poverty increased since 2000 as the national attention was taken up by the Bush wars and by a general neglect of rural areas under Bush and Obama. Iowa governor, now Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack is given the task of addressing rural poverty and a top position in the Biden Administration. Fast internet, housing, income assistance, highway development, child education support, on multiple fronts Biden is fighting the poverty that RFK once saw with his won eyes in 1968 in eastern Kentucky and which stretches across 7 states.  ...

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How president Biden is listening to new voices such as Chris Murphy on what economic, social and national model America should base its future on . Tech monopolies, Big Phama, Billionaires paying 8.2% tax and resisting fair taxes, Citizens United keeping out people interested in public service who don't want to raise money from corporations asking favors (Pharma, Tech monopolies). How Biden says his model in a folksy Scranton sort of way about his grandfather saying "Joey just remember" yet has the basics right about investing in the Nation, Fair Taxes that cut Deficits yet rebuild the dilapidated Infrastructure and creates Jobs, Renewable Energy target for 2035 to tackle Climate change.  And Harris as AG bringing her approach to tackle big corporate power and specific down to earth cost of living action +child care action, + housing costs action,  and Walz bringing experience from a large upper midwestern state in implementing climate change action, wage and income improvement, student debt and educational opportunity for all. This is a strong beginning and we build from here as the foundations are laid down for the future to create an Opportunity for All Economy. Making the effort bipartisan in the spirit of the legislation that Biden has achieved with Republicans senior leaders Cornyn, McConnell, and With Lankford on immigration legislation that will be a top priority for Harris to sign into law. ...

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About 30 rail routes in Germany will be renovated under a massive renovation program of Deutsche Bahn that begins July 15. Repeated delays and cancellations of an antiquated rail system is causing frustration for rail users in Germany. Deutsche Bahn's deficit is euros 2.4 billion and the debt euros 34 billion. It paid 133 million euros just for delays over 60 minutes to customers last year, up by 43%. Germany is not investing in the rail system as it should because of a culture that has spread since the 1990's that investment in public infrastructure and public services is not essential. The CDU party and the FDP have adopted this culture as their own, and the people have not voted this out as the FDP is part of the currrent coalition of the Socialists and the Greens under Scholz and FDP's Lindner controls the Finance Ministry. This is the challenge facing Europe and the US, dismantling a culture step by step that does not believe in investment in public services and infrastructure for far too long allowing it to fall apart when financial markets invest and waste capital in dubious projects. In the US inventing a new golf ball gets 100 million dollars in this dysfunction in financial markets in the EU and US, the list is endless which adds up to tens of billions of dollars.  ...

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The IMF's managing director, Christine Lagarde, pointed to the urgent need to recapitalize European banks in September 2011. European banks face potential losses of 120 billion euros for Belgium, Spain and Italy, 60 billion euros for Greece, 20 billion euros for Ireland and Portugal, and 100 billion euros for other banking exposure, for a total of 300 billion euros, according to the International Monetary Fund. In the absence of recapitalization there could be further damage to EU economies from restricted lending by banks. IMF estimates show that deteriorating credit conditions could damage growth in the eurozone countries by 3.5 percentage points, and in the U.S. by 2.2 percentage points, creating another recession.

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The U.S. Labor Department reports 204,000 nonfarm jobs were created in October 2013. Upward revisions of prior months lead to a level of about 202,000 jobs created in the three months July to October 2013. The unemployment rate goes up from 7.2% to 7.3% in the household survey, with furloughed government employees counted after the temporary government shutdown. The negative part of the picture is that 720,000 persons dropped out of the labor force, a high and puzzling number, and the labor participation rate drops to a 35 year low of 62.8%. This has been a problem since the 2008 crisis as more discouraged workers drop out of the work force, go to school or stay home and care for children, and increasing numbers retire. Some economists now see the Fed waiting till the unemployment rate drops to 6% before withdrawing from the bond buying program in place of the earlier announced 6.5%.

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The U.S. government partially shutdown on December 22, 2018, after members of Congress failed to reach a deal on funding a border wall with Mexico that president Trump has supported. Mr. Trump is seeking $5 billion for constructing the border wall which he sees as needed for securing the border. Two bills in Congress provide $1.3 billion and $1.6 billion in spending. The shutdown comes at a time of Christmas holidays with Democrats and Republicans continuing negotiations for a deal. A House Bill provides $5.7 billion for the wall, but faces a hurdle in the Senate where 60 votes are required and Republicans have a slim 51-49 majority. The border wall with Mexico is part of Mr. Trump's core campaign pledge. Mr. Trump sought to blame Democrats for the shutdown.

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Lack of vaccine supplies and differences between the European Union Commission in Brussels and the German, French governments is slowing the vaccination drive in both countries. The lack of a national concerted effort with the whole country, local and federal governments in agreement, is restricting the effectiveness of the vaccination drives. The failure to contract for more vaccine supplies adds to the problems. By contrast India has coordinated its drive for vaccinations, with the local and federal governments in agreement, and the whole population largely behind the effort to vaccinate. Very critical for a population of 1.4 billion when one includes Bangladesh which has received 2 million doses of vaccine. India has gone one step further with supplying of vaccines to Brazil, Morocco, and other countries. BBC says India has exported 60 million vaccine doses to 76 countries. This is an amazing story and much credit goes to the concerted government effort at all levels local, state and federal and public support. Germany and France can gain by looking at the Indian experience in vaccination drives, just as India has gained by looking at the vaccination drive in the UK, Israel and the US. ...

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Argentina's new president takes over a failing economy in 2019. Mr. Fernandez declared a public emergency until 2020. A legislative package recently passed includes tax increases on the wealthy, tax relief for the poorest, a 30% tax on foreign currency transactions abroad, and a currency cap of $200 per person per month imposed by the previous Macri administration.  About 70% of new revenues will go to social programs, including free food vouchers for two million of the poorest Argentines. About 40% of the people in Argentina are in poverty, according to the World Bank, a shocking figure for a country that should be doing better given its natural resources and agricultural resources. The economy is suffering from hyper inflation at over 50%, jumping external debt at 90% of GDP. Total debt is $332 billion including a $57 billion IMF loan. About half the total debt is in foreign currency and is hard to service now that foreign currency reserves have fallen from $66 billion to $43.5 billion. The debt restructuring strategy now is to delay as much of the $70 billion of repayments due before the end of 2020.  ...

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President Xi Jinping to introduce regulation into what was once an essentially unregulated economy, including a housing sector with financial risks built on ever increasing leverage, are expected to slow the economy to 6-7% growth rate. This is seen as acceptable to address the other goals president Xi sees as essential for the long term future of China. China urban is what most people in the US and Europe see. This is only 60% of China. The other 40% is stuck with lower incomes at about a third of urban areas and with few opportunities. Within urban areas there are the people with moderate incomes who are spooked at housing prices and living in small flats, and now with the pandemic there are many more who are unemployed as China lacks an unemployment insurance system like the US. This and Xi's close connections to farmers in Hebei, and other provinces where he has spent time as party secretary, mean he will now give all of China's people an even chance for a better life. Just as in the US with president Biden, president Xi is tackling social and economic problems left after decades of tech driven expansion aggravated income inequality and poverty. ...

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India's pharmaceutical industry gets a major boost with the development of a mRNA vaccine by Gennova Pharmaceuticals called HGC019. Gennova is funded partly by the government and is being developed in conjunction with Seattle based HDT Bio Corp.  The new vaccine can be stored between 35 to 46 degrees Fahrenheit making it easier to distribute in middle and low income countries with less storage and logistics facilities. It also uses a process of freeze drying called lyophilization to produce the vacine in powder form. It can then be more stable and easy to ship, easy to store at moderate temperatures. The powder can then be diluted with a diluent before vaccination. Another part of the new technology of this vaccine is its use of self-amplifying mRNA instead of non-replicating mRNA. This helps to administer smaller doses with less side effects. India's drug regulator has already approved Gennova vaccine in August for second and third phase trials after the shot was found to be safe in early stage study. Gennova Pharmaceuticals aims to get HGC019 approved for emergency use by Indian authorites this year and manufacture 60 million doses by December end. ...

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Tom Steyer, founder of NextGen America points out the dangers of the Republican tax plan. He calls it a sham, in the WSJ. As evidence he cites a meeting of the WSJ CEO Council, where few hands went up when asked it they would increase investment if the tax bill passed. By saddling future generations with more debt the bill would hurt investment in infrastructure, health and education that are badly needed. This is not the time for another Reaganomics plan, says Steyer, as the middle class and working class have shrivelled under both presidents Bush and Obama, with the export of jobs overseas and the deep recession years. As proof that it does little for the middle and working class, he cites the Tax Policy Center's review of the bill showing 62% of the Senate's version of the tax bill benefits go to the top 1% of the earners. And that nearly half of American families will see their taxes rise under the bill eventually. This means nothing less than taking money from the middle and working class to fund the cuts, and gutting investments in health, education and infrastructure.  ...

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Simo Romero describes the serious self-reflection among Brazilians, as protests against the games and a climate of indifference replaces the euphoria in 2009 of getting to host the Summer Olympics in 2016. About 63 percent of Brazilians believe hosting the Olympics will hurt the country, 51 percent say they are not interested and only 16 percent are enthusiastic about the games, according to polling company Datafolha. The problems Brazil faces now stem from corruption scandals at Petrobras, impeachment proceedings against president Rousseff, and appointment of an interim president Temer, both extremely unpopular. Rio de Janeiro state's finances are in severe condition, and Brazil appears to have wasted the boom years by running up too much debt and not investing in public infrastructure, education, healthcare, and public services. As a result during the Olympics the sailing competition in Guanabara Bay near Rio is faced with the unpleasant problem of raw sewage that has not been cleaned up. Security needs in the Olympics area has led to reduced security in the northeast where prison run gangs operate in some areas against public property. Former president Lula da Silva who was once popular as Brazil experienced the commodities boom is now under investigation related to the corruption at Petrobras.  ...

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Donald Trump's campaign and the Republican National Committee raises $64 million in July 2016 through a digital and mailing effort that helps to bring in a large number of small donations- about two thirds of it. The fund raising effort for Trump brings a total of $82 million in July, just short of the $90 million raised by Hillary Clinton that month. Much of the digital fund raising effort was made possible by efforts made by the RNC to improve its mailing lists since the last presidential campaign. Many of the Trump donations are made from the Trump website buttons of $10, $25, $50, and by an offer to match this with Trump's own personal finances. Hillary Clinton is also ramping up her fund raising. Trump now has $74 million on hand, up from $1.5 million at one point, and Hillary Clinton has $102 million. For the Trump campaign that was far less organized than the Clinton campaign, this is an effort to catch up, though this comes quite late in the campaign with only 3 months left; with advertising rates higher, and not enough time to invest in digital and campaign infrastructure.  ...

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An August survey by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, shows 40% of the country's manufacturers saying they would shift production and R&D facilities overseas if the yen remains at 85 to the dollar. It has dropped below that. Nissan will make 71% of its cars overseas in 2010, compared to 66% in 2009. Murata Manufacturing plans to double its foreign output to 30% by March 2013. By buying Dutch printer maker Oce NV in March, Canon Inc., saw its overseas output jump to 48% for the first half of 2010. Toyota is on track to produce 57% of its output overseas in 2010 , compared to 48% in 1995. The popular Prius will now be built at a plant in Bangkok, Thailand. Sony did 20% of its television manufacturing in Japan in 2010, it is aiming to do 50% in 2011. As a result Sony showed a profit for the April-June quarter, after 6 straight years of losses. Its also important to note that when inflation is taken into account the yen has not strengthened the way it appears, which reduces domestic pressures to dampen the yen's rise. Tohru Sasaki, head of foreign-exchange research at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo, says that in inflation-adjusted terms, the yen is 30% below the rate it reached in April 1995. U.S. consumer prices have risen by 69% since 1990, in Japan the prices rose only 8.5% during the same period. In inflation adjusted terms the April 1995 exchange rate of 80 yen to the dollar would be 56 yen to the dollar today. Japan's exporters can also benefit from the fact that a large part of Japanese trade is denominated in yen- according to Japan's Ministry of Finance 48% of exports to Asia were paid for in yen in 2009. Like China and Germany, Japan remains highly dependent on exports for growth- which provide two thirds of its growth. The yen's strength increases the outflow of production facilities. In July 2010, 10.3 millon workers were employed in manufacturing in Japan, down from 12 million in 2002. Japan's unemployment rate was 5.6% in 2009....

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Pensions amount to over 10% of GDP in Hungary, and its becoming harder to run these deficits, as international investors are no longer buying the bonds sold by the government to finance some of these deficits. In Eastern Europe, only Poland and Slovenia have as large a portion of GDP going into pensions. And for a population of 10 million people, Hungary has 3 million pensioners, far too many for the system to be able to support them. It is easy to join the pension system at an early age. The average Hungarian retires at 58, and only 14% of the people 60-64 are working. Getting disability, even if the disability does not prevent working, and becoming a pensioner, is considered attractive in Hungary as the pension payout at about 70% of wages or higher is generous. The pension is about 80,000 forints on average or $350 amonth, and the untaxed pension is close to the average after tax income of $500 in Hungary. Four million working Hungarians support the 3 million pensioners. And employers pay ahefty amount, discouraging new investment in Hungary. For an employee to take home 400,000 forints amonth payroll and income taxes can mount to 1 million forints. Politicians under the Soviet sponsored regime and more recently in the post soviet period have used the pensioner socialist bloc to win elections and are reluctant to disturb the situation. And under the privatization schemes, newly privatized companies simply dumped people off the state payrolls into the pension system , as generous payouts made it an attractive alternative to working. Now at a time when jobs are being lost and the economy is in trouble Hungary is having to address these generous pensions and because of the already strained finances has no stimulus in place for the economic downturn. Hungary imports heavily from Germany and Hungarians have borrowed heavily from Austrian and Italian banks. The deteriorating economic situation has led to a steep decline in its currency. And there is a fierce debate going on in the EU about rescuing Hungary. Deterioration in Hungary could create crises in other Eastern European countries like Czech Republic, Romania and others....

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Some political experts such as David Plouffe, campaign manager of Obama's 2008 campaign for president, do not take a Hillary win over Donald Trump as a given. They cite the average of negatives for Trump at 63%, but Clinton's are high too at 54%, and this campaign season has shown Clinton has vulnerabilities in the way she has lost in some of the primaries to Bernie Sanders. Sanders like Trump is leading a voter protest against establishment candidates.

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Efforts by charity groups in Andalusia, Spain, to get supermarket chains Mercadona and Carrefour to donate food for food banks. Some of the food goes to rural laborers hard hit by the unemployment in Spain. Unemployment in the region is about 34%. Spain's overall jobless rate is at about 24.6%. More unemployed workers are running out of jobless benefits in Spain in 2012. The percentage of unemployed people in Spain receiving assistance declined to 65% from 78% in 2010.

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How savings habits changed from the last generation to this one. By age 45 savings rate rose sharply to about 30% of disposable income for our parent's generation. For the generation born 1955-64 savings rate remained unchanged at 10%, according to the McKinsey Global Institute. The result of the financial crisis is that credit cards are declining and savings are up. Credit cards shrank by 11% or 32 millon in 2009 according to Nilson Report.