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The WSJ Dollar Index , which shows the strength of the U.S. dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, jumped up by 22% from July 1, 2014 to March 17, 2015, according to FactSet. Since that time the dollar has risen slowly by 2.7%. Scott Mather, chief investment officer, U.S. core strategies, PIMCO, says the dollar normally rises faster in the period when there is an expectation of rising rates than when the actual increase of rates takes place. Analysts say if the Fed raises rates in 2016 this could strengthen the dollar further, complicating the Fed's rate increase plans with slower increase in inflation. U.S. S&P 500 companies have reported lower earnings by 10-12% in the third quarter of 2015- when actual earnings dropped by only 1.5%- because of the stronger dollar, according to Binky Chadha, chief global strategist at Deutsche Bank. He says core goods inflation would have risen by half a percentage point more without the stronger dollar, meeting the 2% Fed target, had the dollar not strengthened....

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The yield on Italy's two year bonds reached 7.269% on November 9, 2011. Italy needs to rollover $300 billion in debt over the next 12 months. And liquidity is becoming a serious problem as investors become cautious about buying Italian bonds. Investors who were attracted to the higher yields on Italian bonds now see the market as too unstable to make purchases. Peter Schaffrik, head of European rates strategy at RBC Capital Markets in London, says that the Italian bond market, the third largest in the world, was quite liquid, with investors buying or selling 500 millon euros of Italian bonds at a clip. Now, he says, its hard to trade more than 50 million euros. The only hope is to get enough stability and confidence back into the market, as Italy is too large for any rescue effort by the ECB, IMF or the EFSF. With some stability Black Rock's Fundamental Fixed Income portfolio's chief investment officer, Rick Rieder, says Italian bonds are something he would buy.

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Merkel prods Russia to follow Germany's example as she lands in Kiev on the 75th anniversary of the nonaggression pact signed between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. Merkel said: "That today a German chancellor can be here shows what has happened... We want countries to be able to freely decide their political direction. We no longer participate, as the Federal Republic of Germany, in stirring up historical misery, and that is a good development of history." Russia badly needs to find a new place in a new world rather than stir up memories from the Soviet or Tsarist period, just as Germany has done in the period since 1945 with chancellors Adenauer, Brandt, down to Merkel and president Gauck today. The world today is very different from the period when Merkel grew up in the German Democratic Republic and Putin lived as a KGB officer in Dresden, Germany. Even more so as the manner of living in urban areas in different parts of the world, business, industry, the arts, culture, products is increasingly converging, with higher expectations. ...

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As the market in larger cities matures, the market in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities is where most of the growth is expected in China's market. An expanding middle class is one source of buyers. One forecast is for 51% of Chinese families having disposable income of 106,000 yuan to 229,000 yuan or between $17,000 and $37,000 by 2020, according to McKinsey. There were only 6% in that income range in 2010, showing how skewed the income distribution was, and why the growth of luxury cars has benefitted BMW, Benz and GM. A new generation of younger buyers is another source of growth- Nissan's chief planning officer, Andy Palmer estimates the youth market at 240 million. This group is being called the Transformers generation. A big surge in buying for SUV's has helped companies such as Ford Motor Company. Benz and Ford plan to add new dealerships, with Benz planning dealerships in 40 new cities and opening 100 new stores in 2014. Audi is planning a new certified used car program to keep used car resale values high....

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Germany's National Statistics Office reports the country showed a budget surplus of 36.6 billion euros in 2017. The economy expanded at 2.2%, the highest growth since 2011. Export growth was strong with exports up 2.7 percent in 2017.

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This marks the D Day celebrations for the US in World War II to be held on June 14, Saturday. The president DJT referred to this in his remarks in the White House with German chancellor Merz. It is not just Army Day but the entire war effort under FDR that won World War II under Generals Eisenhower, Marshall and Patton on the European Front against the Nazis occupation of Europe that is being celebrated. DJT again referred to it in an Oval Office meeting on June 10 on the situation in Los Angeles.  Even German chancellor Merz called it Liberation Day for Germany from the Nazis. The Weimar democracy did not survive the years of French imposed high war reparations and hyperinflation leading to the Nazis taking over. US Gen. Pershing was clear that no Armistice should be signed that the war should end with the complete defeat of the Kaiser in Germany and this would have given the US a role it lacked in a final peace settlement that allowed Germany to build a democratic process to replace Prussian militarism. ...

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This example of how Forest Laboratories hoped to market an antidepressant Lexapro to doctors through financial incentives to prescribe the drug is detailed in a document that was made public by the Senate's Special Committee on Aging. The document is the "Lexapro Fiscal 2004 Marketing Plan." Forest licensed Celexa from Lundeck of Denmark and brought it to the US market in 1998. Then as the drug's patent life was short it tinkered with it and developed a new version calling it Lexapro and introduced it in the US market in 2002. Withits marketing effort Lexapro had $2.3 billion in sales in 2008, while all the time generic versions of Celexa and other durgs in its class sell for afraction of the Lexapro price. For instance amonth's supply of 5 millgram tablets of Lexapro costs $87.99 at drugstore.com, while a month's supply of generic version of Prozac is $14.99. Forest spends a lot compared to its larger rivals on sending money to doctor's. In the plan $34.7 million was to go to pay 2,000 psychiatrists and primary care doctors to deliver 15,000 marketing lectures to their peers that year. $36 million was to go to providing lunch to doctors in their offices. Asks Senator Herb Kohl, a Democrat from Wisconsin who is chairman of the Committee on Aging- "is the line between medical education and marketing blurred." For these companies there was no line. ...

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Baker and Shear show the changes in president Trump's views on Islam and Islamic extremism following his meetings with leaders from the region since taking office. In his speech to leaders of the region Trump said "Islam is one of the world's great faiths" and said what was needed was "tolerance and respect for each other." He also said it was not about "conflict between religions, sects or civilizations." General McMaster calls it "learning" for Trump, something Trump has shown a capacity for when he badly needs to get it together and make a conscious effort. As a result the page on the travel ban on the Trump website has been taken down. This is an astonishing about face seen in one way because of Trump's rhetoric during the election and right upto the travel ban, yet it also shows Trump's business instincts and willingness to learn and be open, showing he has many personality traits and is a more complex person than he looks at first glance. This may also be how he survived in business bankruptcies, by adapting and learning. Contrast this with the views of Marine Le Pen during the French presidential election, and it shows that the business side and commercial instincts of Trump make a real difference. He can appeal to the cultural angst of followers, whether it be for Mexico or the Middle East, yet take a sensible approach to get on with it when needed. Trump needed to be careful about words and meaning following a month of media revelations on the relations between Flynn and Russia, and the appointment of a Special Counsel to investigate Trump campaign connections with Russia. ...

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Though tens of thousands of workers in the French rail network are protesting in the streets about changes in the labor laws, the atmosphere in the National Assembly where president Macron has an absolute majority is different. In the National Assembly most of the legislators are young, inexperienced and there for the first time after the recent elections. Most owe allegiance to president Macron and his party En Marche. The labor code changes were passed without much discussion and on a thumbs up or down vote.  Legislators from Mr. Macron's party are seen by older surviving legislators from an earlier period in French politics as arrogant and do not consult with older legislators. The entire sociology of the National Assembly is overturned and presents a complete culture shock, says a leader of Macron's party who selected members for seats in parliament. Three fourths of members are here for the first time, 60% in Macron's party En Marche. About one third never held public office before. These members spend a whole week in parliament instead of the few days during the earlier Assembly. Yet for all the work and enthusiasm these members act as more of a rubber stamp for Macron's policies instead of offering healthy discussion so that policies can be modified where needed to better accomplish the goal of changing the French system where it can be improved. The result is a form of government that critics increasingly see as autocratic. For Macron this means the lack of a process of consultation that could improve legislation and increase consensus, creating larger support for the changes to the labor laws and the pension system. ...

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Margo Oge, headed the Office of Transportation and AIr Quality at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency from 1994-2012. Here she points out the contradiction in what automakers supported when the current fuel emission standards were set and today's effort by the Trump administration to loosen the standards. She also points to the contradiction between the trends in Europe, China, India, which are moving towards stricter standards and the U.S. reversing direction.  About one dozen states in addition to California have the power under the Clean Air Act to set their own standards. These states make up about one third of the U.S. market. What would result is a fracturing of the U.S. market. This would create problems for automakers as one expert recently pointed out in the NYT, that automakers should be careful what they wish for.  Automakers such as Ford say they support the current fuel emissions standards, yet call for flexibility. GM's CEO, Mary Barra, says she supports current standards. Toyota also says it supports the current emission standards. And diesel engines are now declining in Europe as a result of fuel emissions standards to preserve good air quality. History has shown the automakers have suffered badly from competition when emissions and fuel efficiency standards were lax. During the last decade the auto industry in Michigan faced decline as a result of poor management decisions and lack of foresight in pushing forward with new technologies in this field. The current recovery in the auto industry is a result of a reversal of the poor decisions made between 2000-2008, including fuel emissions and fuel efficiency, air quality decisions.    ...

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Japan's economy declined at an annualized pace of 3.7% in the first quarter of 2011, according to Japan's Cabinet Office.

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Mr. Erdogan is reelected in the second round of voting with 52.1% of the vote. Mr Kilicdaroglu got 47.9% of the vote with almost all the votes counted. The four percent margin also reflect the use of all state powers by Mr. Erdogan in the election. Overall it could be said that the vote was a close one after an earthquake and 40% inflation in Turkey. Mr. Erdogan efforts to run for another term is not limited by limits in terms a president can serve in Turkey. By the time he finishes another term in office he will have been in power for over 25 years. He faces difficult conditions for the Turkish economy which badly needs foreign investment. The mayors of Istanbul and Ankara the two main cities in Turkey are from the Opposition Republican party of Mustafa Kemal who founded the modern Turkey we know today in 1923 with the victory over the Entente western powers and Greece ratified by the Treaty of Lausanne. The future looks to be set by one of these two leaders as change is likely so that it has a chance to live up to the aspirations that surrounded its founding in 1919-1923. The transformation of a society at the dividing line between Europe and Asia into a modern state with the best that Europe had to offer from 1923 to 1938 including a new language that would promote the literacy of its people. Mustafa Kemal stated clearly in a speech at Nutuk in 1923 that lasted for several days the process that he had to trust would create a modern state that would compare with the best in Europe- the Turkish people and the National Assembly of the people of Anatolia and Rumelia. Mustafa Kemal did not see the six centuries of Ottoman rule as an example for Turkey in what Ismet who led the struggle for independence on the Greek front and as leading negotiator at Lausanne in 1923 called stemming from "the fire of his soul." Of Kemal it could truly be said he fought for the four momentous years 1919 to 1923 both the Entente Powers as well as the remaining elements of six centuries of Ottoman rule. ...

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This France24 report looks at the question of whether the policies of four term German chancellor Angela Merkel emboldened Russia under president Putin to launch the invasion of Ukraine. FR24's interview with the vice president of the German Marshall Fund and head of its Berlin office, Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, shows there are many reasons why Merkel's policies were serious errors that ignored caution from past experience and from other western leaders in the US and Eastern Europe. Kleine-Brockhoff says that "Europe did not go wrong, Germany and France did. France and Germany tend to speak for the rest of Europe. Bit these mis-assessments were made in Paris and Berlin, not elsewhere. Eastern Europe didn't go wrong. Northern Europe did'nt go wrong."  Kleine-Brockhoff says the war in Ukraine calls for an urgent re-assessment of the German and French policy towards Russia. "Not only is the post Cold-War order crumbling before our eyes, so are the strategies employed by Germany and France." Under particular scrutiny comes Merkel's policy, and policy supported by Steinmeier of the SPD, that took German dependence on Russian energy supplies from 36% during the annexation of Crimea to 55% in March 2022 with the invasion of Ukraine. Germany's conservative Die Welt has this to say- "What Germany and Europe have experienced over the last days is nothing short of the reversal of the Merkel policies of guaranteeing peace and freedom through treaties with despots," describing Merkel's policies as "an error." About France Kleine-Brockhoff says there were lofty ambitions under Sarkozy and Macron of European strategic autonomy, which did not correspond to reality, to fantasies of European armies when there was nothing but NATO. It is not dialogue with Putin and Russia that was a problem, says Laure Delcour, international relations expert at the Sorbonne Nouvelle in Paris. Some form of dialogue is necessary she says, but the dialogue has to have clear objectives. We must not confuse cause with consequence, she says. We know  that NATO enlargement had a big impact on Russia's perceptions, but the real problem is how Russia responded to enlargement. "In this case the problem is the consequence."  ...

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France's regional elections show president Macron's party has failed to covert national power into grassroots support. Macron's En Marche party was reduced to just 10% of the vote. Some called it a slap in the face for Macron's party. It was hastily setup during Socialist president Hollande's last year in office in April 2016 by one of his ministers Emmanuel Macron. The National Front of Marie Le Pen on the far right also lost support and won just 19% of the vote. About a third of the vote went to candidates from the former Republican party of president Sarkozy. Xavier Bertrand from the Republican party, which is in the Gaullist tradition, was one of the winners and emerges as a presidential candidate. Only 34% of voters turned out with very young people and people over 35 not turning out to vote. It appears that voters are now disillusioned with the party of Macron and Marie Le Pen that had hoped to win voters from the two traditional parties the Gaullist party and the Socialist party. The socialists did well in western France and have gained at a regional level. The Gaullist party, called Republicans under Sarkozy now looks to gain at the national level. The situation in Germany shows voters shifting back from the far right back to the traditional parties. In the regional election in eastern Germany the AfD far right lost to the CDU recently. Voters are beginning to return to the traditional parties. In Germany this includes a shift to the Greens party that has gained as the voters shift to moderate parties. Macron lost much support and was seen as not sensitive enough to people who had struggled to make a living because of changes in the economy and the urban rural split, social upheaval. He had a popular prime minister during the first wave of the coronavirus  in 2020 who Macron removed as this would create a candidate who might run against him in the national elections. A series of terrorist actions led to a sense of a lack of safety which added to voter unease and the shift to the traditional centre right Republicans.  ...

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What has happened that makes it so hard for Democrats Biden who stood on a picket line for the UAW autoworkers union, Harris fighting for workers, that they cannot easily convince workers that they are on their side? It is because compared to 1980 not the lowest income groups but the "downwardly mobile" white and other groups without college degrees have taken the brunt of the loss of manufacturing jobs. It is why the "zero-sum" stories of the former president have appeal to some workers who have lost the most from deindustrialization of the US. Even though Biden, and Harris, have fought hard and are putting in place the policies for the fight to reindustrialize America by taking old plants and modernizing them one by one across the country. No one has ever done this before including years in which the former president was in office. In these visual graphs it is easy to see the sharp decline in incomes and status in society of workers without college degrees as the economy changed after 1980 sending steel, auto and other industries to Asia. By 2024 these workers lives had been upended by the loss of these industries and the hope for income and place in society that existed in 1980. Every US president from Reagan through Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump had failed to address this. Biden was the first president to take this up but too much has happened with to reverse this in 4 years, the pandemic, inflation from loss of supply chains to Asia, and wages not keeping up with cost of living.  NYT's Badger, Gebeloff and Bhatia show analysis of the economy, incomes and jobs in 1980 vs the economy, incomes and jobs in 2024 for persons with a college degree and without a college degree.It shows the sharp differences in the eastern Midwestern states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania over 4 decades of job losses, loss of income status and self worth for men without college degrees. With their jobs in manufacturing disappearing also disappearing was the middle class lifestyle- of owning a house, having a cottage or boat in the countryside, and sending kids to college. ...

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This report on Bangladesh politics and economy is from The Guardian July 14, 2019. In 2009 the Awami League party under Sheikh Hasina contested the election in a Grand Alliance with Gen. Ershad's Jatiya Party winning an absolute majority of the seats. Since then Sheikha Hasina has been prime minister through 4 elections maintaining economic growth through the garment industry till the pandemic and disrupted supply chains hit Bangladesh hard leading to its debt burden doubling in 3 years. This led to turning to the IMF in 2022  with reserves down to $23 billion and student protests over lack of jobs. A second wave of protests led to her ouster in August 2024. This report by Derek Brown in The Guardian shows the changing situation in Bangladesh in the 1980's and 1990's after independence in 1971 following the India-Pakistan 1971 war. Zia Khaled of the BNP and Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League were alternately in power with periods of rule by the Army under Ershad contesting elections as the Jatiya party when the two parties failed to govern effectively. This went on from 1996 till 2009 when Sheikh Hasina began what would be four terms in office for 15 years. The economy was improving by 2019. And then Covid hit - the pandemic had serious effects on the foreign exchange reserves of Bangladesh, Sri Lankan and Pakistan economies. Only in India with the efforts of prime minister Modi was the economy put on a sustained growth path, corruption prevented by the personal example of Modi's leadership, and a state led development focus achieved using the example Modi had set in Gujarat as its chief minister for 15 years. The rest of South Asia lacked such firm and decisive leadership that is similar in its focus to the transformation of first Japan and China into leading industrialized nations.  In 2022 Bangladesh followed Sri Lanka and Pakistan in going to the IMF. By 2023 the foreign exchange reserves had declined to $23 billion. In 2024 to $19 billion. Garment economy dependent Bangladesh was seeing the effects of supply chain disruption and decrease in earnings from exports. In 2024 student protests on joblessness and frustration at economic prospects led to the ouster of the Hasina government.  ...

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China imports from the US only $143 billion and much of this is soyabeans (US farmers), petroleum oil products (buyers in Europe and Asia), aircraft (Boeing). Farmers were compensated from the tariff revenues in the first term, oil products would be shipped to Asia and LNG to Europe to make up for loss of supplies from Russia. India will take up the Boeing production as it's economy expands to levels China, Japan had earlier. The action is a last resort as 490,000 lives were lost in 12 years from the fentanyl shipped raw materials from China and drug trafficking gangs in Mexico processing it in labs to ship across the long US border or Canadian border into the US. China and Mexico have not stopped the flow of fentanyl into the US. How much is 490,000 American lives worth? That is 5 times the lives lost in the Vietnam War and the Korean War combined of 100,000 lives lost in both wars. China exported $436 billion to the US in 2023 increasing by about 6% from prior year. Integrated Circuits alone were more than all US exports combined to China at $154 billion. Electric batteries another $80 billion. Computers and office machine parts were $54 billion. Where will China ship all these products. It is brave but it is easier to stop fentanyl flows out of China, and cut all the trade barriers, reverse state policy to dominate key industrial sectors in State Planning. The problem in the stock market response is that this is a trade war which it is NOT. It is about National Security if this is allowed to continue as Clinton, Bush, Obama have allowed to happen US is in real danger of becoming a second rate power in the world, at which point the world will become a dangerous place with India, China, Russia, Germany and other states having no constraints to create future wars without US to set some basic principles of world peace. UN itself would not exist without Cordell Hull and FDR. The world we know will be GONE. US Navy will not be able to build the ships it needs in USA if this deindustrialization is allowed to continue.    ...

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Bernhard former chief operating officer under Daimler's Zietsche, is back at Chrysler now reports to Cerebus's Feinberg. He and LaSorda are behind the effort to revive Chrysler.

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Hillary Clinton's estate tax plan would increase the estate taxes on the largest estates from 40% today and her proposed 45% to the higher figure of 65% proposed by Senator Bernie Sanders. Compared to the current $5.45 million exemption only the first $3.5 million would be exempt from estate tax for individuals ($7 million for a married couple). The top rate of 65% would apply to individuals with over $500 million. Beyond $10 million a 50% rate, and beyond $50 million a 55% rate.

The latest proposal adds $260 billion over 10 years adequate to pay for simplified small business taxes, and for expanding child tax credit.  Over 10 years Clinton would increase taxes by $1.5 trillion to pay for expanded education assistance, paid family leave and other programs. She would increase federal revenue by 4% and have the burden fall on only a small portion of households.