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Louis Uchitelle talks to Stanley Moses, an economist at Hunter College in New York, and others, to find out if things will work out as expected with the $700 billion or $800 billion that Obama plans to invest in infrastructure, energy, and other things to generate the 3 million jobs and investment. Will this generate private investment like the Interstate Highway program which ocurred during the Eisenhower days and set the economy on fast growth, or will it generate enthusiasm and jobs for a few years, and just as Roosevelt backed off in 1937 to let private investment pick up he found that it was still too weak to make a difference. The point that he hears from some experts like Moses is that the current times are setting up for a deep downturn, so that is not reminscent of the Eisenhower years when the economy was getting on the growth track after the war years. Its not exactly like the Roosevelt years either, because of the many changes that have ocurred in a modern economy, but in terms of the mood, the collapsing investment, consumer spending and credit and the collapsing growth in emerging markets which hits exports, this is a situation that is not easily reversed with a few years of aggressive government spending. Things have to change in the public's mood and in private industry's initiative to invest that would return the economy to a growth pattern, and this may be a long time coming with so much deterioration happening at the same time....

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U.S. population growth from July 2012 to July 2013 was 0.72% with 2.25 million people added. The population stands at 316.1 million in July 2013, and is now in Dec 2013 at 317.3 million, according to Census Bureau. U.S. populaion growth has ranged from 1.8% in the 1950's to 1.2% in the 1990's. Lower immigration since the 2008 recession, low fertility, lower movement to more prosperous states, has lowered the growth rate. The South and West show population growing at about 1% in 2013, the Northeast and Midwest at closer to 0.3%. California has 38 million people, Texas 26.5 million, New York 19.7 million, Florida 19.6 million.

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With imported farm laborers not allowed into Britain during the pandemic local people volunteered for the job of berry picking during strawberry season. A professional cricket player for a team in New Zealand whose season was interrupted says its hard work but he enjoyed it. He picked 565 pounds of strawberries in about 6 hours. He says he is proud of his effort, and he thinks he did something worthwhile plus in the outdoors.

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It is now not just an issue of migrants, a much broader issue of how the people of Britain can have democratic processes and action on the economy work without disruptions and distractions such as migrants. The interests of 69 million Britons and hundreds of million in war ridden countries vs 40,000 migrants put on boats here because of economic conditions in their home countries. The best course of action for Labour is direct targeted assistance to rural schools and rural health care, farmers, in affected countries as they recover from years of war. 20,000 crossed the English Channel in boats in 6 months January to June 2025. Eritrea, Syria, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, areas of war in Middle East are source of migrants crossing the English Channel in boats.  Britain offering weekly allowance of 50 pounds a person and free National Health Service services encourages migrants to make the journey in boats and pay migrant trafficking operators with their life savings. Without a clear goal on migrants and necessary action Britain under Labour sees further destabilization of the social and political fabric of the country by reducing confidence in the two main political parties.  ...

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The part of the tax law that limits state and property tax deductions to $10,000 and limits deduction of mortgage interest is likely to slow the rise of housing values in 2018. Much of the effect is psychological as the impact is felt on the East Coast, California, Midwest and the D.C. area. The median U.S. county will see a decline of 0.8%, and some counties in New York could see declines of 10%, according to Moody's analysis. The impact is greater for higher priced homes, and where incomes are higher with big mortgages and big tax bills.

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Robert Morgenthau, a former district attorney for New York County, says the American deportation effort is putting about 1000 people out of the U.S. every day. He calls it a deportation effort that has gone wildly astray. Here he says the new leadership of Jeh Johnson is likely to be better than her predecessor Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano in ensuring that the agency can move in a direction that ensures fairness for immigrants who are law abiding. Morgenthau says in his long experience as district attorney he has learned that the trust and cooperation of the immigrant community in New York is essential to going after the criminal elements that are a danger to society. And some of this trust has been eroded by the actions of the ICE, Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency, part of Homeland Security Department, through large scale and record breaking deportation approaching about 400,000 a year. A report for the last fiscal year shows only 14.5% of the deportees in immigration court were criminals or suspected of terrorism....

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CDC in the US provides this look at life expectancy in the US in 2020. The life expectancy in the US dropped by 1.8 years to 77 years for men and women in 2020. The highest life expectancy in the US is in the northeastern states including New York and in the western states including Washington, Oregon and California. The lowest is in the southern states such as Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama. Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, in midwest have lower life expectancy,

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The authors of this op-ed cite Federal Reserve Bank of New York studies that show ony 56% of borrowers of student loans from the government are making payments. The U.S. government does not correctly reflect its liabilities on these loans by treating all the loans as an asset.

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The Egyptian military announced the names of a eight member Constitutional Committee. The committee will be given the task of rewriting six articles of the constitution. These articles relate to presidential term limits, judicial oversight of elections, and parts related to curbing the president's powers to amend the constitution and restrict civil liberties, including sending civilians to military tribunals. The committee is asked to come up with recommended rewriting of these articles in 10 days. Reports say the constitutional changes will then be put to a popular referendum. The committee will be led by Tareq al-Bishry, who is a retired judge and a prominent historian. Mr Bishry and a Cairo University law professor, Atef al-Bana, are thought to be followers of a modern Islamic school of thought. Other members are Sobhi Saleh, a popular member of the Muslim Brotherhood who represented Alexandria in parliament from 2005 to 2010. About the selection of the committee, Abdel Yousef, a senior official of ElBaradei's National Association for Change, says the names are a good sign from the military. See the heart rending account of Sobhi Saleh and a prison set on fire from which he makes his way out after his arrest during the protests. The account is by Nicholas Kulish in the New York Times, Feb 4, 2011....

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Germany's export oriented economy and its export oriented companies are struggling in 2021 with broken supply chains and high energy prices. This report in the WSJ looks at how Germany needs to rebuild its economy in a different way. German industrial output was 9% below its 2015 level in August, compared to 2% for the eurozone as a whole, according to EU's statistics agency. Italy's growth was 5% over the same period. There is a redirection underway to bring more production back home after years of outsourcing and outshoring. Other changes taking place are the policies being put in place for net zero emissions by 2050, and the targets for 2030 that would make this possible. This also changes prospects for Germany's large auto industry. By 2030 30-50% of all cars will have to be electric cars. About 30% of Germany's industrial output and exports are tied to overseas demand, 4 times that in the US. From 2003 when competitive overhauls took place under chancellors including Mr. Schroeder, German industrial growth was sustained by demand from China. Now with China looking to internal demand following global tensions on trade, sales of some companies are looking flat instead of sustained year over year growth. What will happen now? Here is what the likely new chancellor from the Social Democrats has to say about the overhaul of the German economy and industry- "It will be the biggest industrial modernization project that Germany has carried out probably for over 100 years, and it will really help our economy." The SDP and Greens that together share the same ideas for rebuilding Germany around infrastructure and climate change and upward mobility, badly neglected in the Merkel years, plan big investments. Big investments are to be made in climate protection, high speed internet, education, research and infrastructure. Germany's net investment rate has been around 0.5% of economic output since 2000, compared to 1% for Italy and 1.5% for the US, according to the World Bank. This WSJ report even says net public investment has fallen below zero as existing assets depreciate. To achieve this transition Germany has identified several problems. One is the delays in investment projects that cost German companies 55 billion euros a year, about half the money invested in research and development, according to Germany's statistics agency. Germany was thought to be an industrial powerhouse but the quality of work in projects and delays so apparent in the Berlin Brandenburg airport infrastructure project clearly shows a decline over the past two decades. This will need to be fixed. Other problems are in getting more workers as Germany faces a shortage of workers for factories to 2030.     ...

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Krugman in the NYT describes the dangers of plutocratic power to American democracy. When exercized by the Murdochs, the Elon Musks, the Harlan Crows of this world. He cites presidents who are Republican and broke up the large oil companies in the 1900's, Theodore Roosevelt (1901-1909) who warned about "a small class of enormously wealthy and economically powerful men, whose chief object is to hold and increase their power." This is happening with the power of the so called Tech companies today and both parties seeking to break  up the Tech companies.  Then there is a Democratic president from this period Woodrow Wilson (1913-1921) who followed Theodore Roosevelt. Wilson says- "If there are men in this country who are big enough to own the government of the United States, they are going to own it." Theodore Roosevelt fought political machines such as Tammany Hall in New York as well as Rockefeller's Standard Oil Company. Wilson, a professor from Princeton, continued this tradition by protecting the working class of that time through his New Freedom campaign in 1913.  As a professor Wilson wrote the textbook The State used in colleges of that period, which set forth for the first time the basic idea of the state that we see today- "that forbids child labor, supervises the sanitary condition of factories, limits employment of women in occupations hurtful to their health, institutes official tests for the purity or quality of goods sold, that limits the hours of work in certain trades, and by a hundred and one limitations the power of unscrupulous or heartless men to outdo the scrupulous or merciful in trade or industry." Both were progressive Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson. Wilson under his New Freedom platform for the 1913 election, asserted that it was the task of government "to make those adjustments of life that will put every man in a position to claim his rights as a normal human being." What president Biden is doing today is closest to what Wilson and Roosevelt were trying to achieve, and what Modi is doing today in India is also closest to what Wilson and Roosevelt were trying to achieve. In 1913 Wilson won 42% of the vote, Roosevelt 27% because of a split within the Republican party with Robert Taft. Wilson proposed breakup of oil companies to provide a level playing field for all companies. Similar decisions are being considered by president Biden today for Tech Companies. The future of both the US and India is being decided in these difficult times after a pandemic and in the middle of a European war, and a supply chain overconcentrated in one country in Asia. Wilson's idea "to put every man in a position to claim his rights as a normal human being," is being set forth by president Biden through the word "dignity," by Modi in India as "sab ka vikas, sab ke sath" (development for all, with all). The Greens and SPD's Scholz also set forth this idea as "dignity" for the worker for Germany.   ...

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The Goethe Institut is for Germany what the British Council was for Britain and the USIS for the US in the countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America as well as Europe. A way to interface the world with ideas that contribute to world culture from Germany, and both influence and grow from the interaction. This is how Carola Lentz its new head in 2020 sees the Geothe-Institut on its 70th anniversary. There are 158 Goethe Instituts in 98 countries. The picture that goes with this article in DW.com shows language students from Ghana on the streets of Burnau, Bavaria, with their host family. It started in 1951 in Munich to spread German language and cultural studies in the world. Pope Francis studied German in his early years at the Goethe Institut while staying with a host family in Boppard, Rhineland-Palatinate, when he came to Germany from Argentina. Carola Letz brings an interesting background to this work as a researcher on societies in Africa, and her study of sociology, politics and languages. She believes the true work is to build conversations with other countries and to engage people inside Germany into this conversation for the first time, a task never undertaken before by the USIS or the British Council. As has happened accidentally and also with the sense of "'arrogance" in the US and Europe towards other less industrially developed countries, people inside European and North American countries were far less equipped with knowledge and understanding of world societies than their representatives overseas in post war period.  Lentz, born 1954. who lives in Mainz near Cologne, the home of Goethe, is an ethnologist and African Studies expert. Lentz sees a new approach of conversations with people in other societies, about an approach that is considerate, not arrogant, for developing joint answers to global questions.  A new exhibit opens on the 70th anniversary at the Berlin museum Hamburger Barnhof- "Take Me to the River," on global environmental changes on November 29, alongside another exhibit "Nation, Narration, Narcosis," on the role of museums in the culture of remembrance. This brings Germans inside the country into this conversation for the first time along with  the thousands of visitors from other countries.     ...

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The new government of prime minister Enrico Letta takes office in Italy in April 2013 following the reelection of president Giorgio Napolitano. Letta is 46 years old and represents a new generation in Italian politics. He is a former Christian Democrat and member of the European parliament. Letta studied at the University of Pisa, and did graduate work in international affairs. In the 1990's he was president of the European Young Christian Democrats. He was associated with Beniamino Andreatta, a Christian Democrat economist and founder of research group Arel. Letta was his chief of staff when he became foreign minister in 1993. In 1998 Letta was minister for European Affairs, and the following year Industry minister. In 2009 Letta became deputy secretary of the Democratic party. The firm European connections, a good sense of how Italians feel about the economic changes, a connection with young people, and his grasp of the needs of business and labor in improving Italian competitiveness, make him an excellent choice after the inconclusive parliamentary elections in Italy. ...

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The need for a global response to a global problems not a lot of local solutions is the subject of this article by Dr. Larry Brilliant, who for 7 years 1973-80 worked with the World Health Organization to eradicate smallpox globally. 1. Action for a global response-The WHO can act as the vehicle for action globally-  restructure it and empower it to do the job. Put the right people in place who have the confidence globally. Set a new pandemic treaty and put it in place. 2.  Get a more advanced version of the mRNA vaccine which does not need a cold chain. India is reportedly working on one. Put funds and people in place for vaccine drives in poor countries.  Other action needed is learning from the situation in South Africa where the HIV patients are reported by Stephanie Nolan in NYT to have been more susceptible to mutations of the new variant. How can resources be put in place in poor countries so that patients in vulnerable populations get their medicines regularly, and are vaccinated. Overall how can these populations have the vaccine supplies needed- including ones without cold chain suggested by Larry Brilliant, potentially through vaccine work in India. Can international teams be developed with developed countries in Europe and US financing the effort and India offering its manpower and knowhow?   ...

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David Axelrod affirms the President's firm moral tone. The budget document in the President's letter forcefully attacks " a legacy of misplaced priorities and irresponsible policy choices in Washington". It confronts the "growing imbalance of accumulating wealth and closing doors to the middle class." The letter says "we must usher in a new era of responsibility and begin the hard work of bringing new levels of honesty and fairness to your government." Axelrod's view is that the tone says what Americans and the President have realized for some time now, that its institutions both government and private have let America down.

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Natural gas prices declined to $3.144 a million British Thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange for January delivery. Natural gas prices dropped sharply by 30% in December 2014. Earlier forecasts of $4.50 per million BTU by 2014 end underestimated the decline in natural gas prices in the U.S.

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The financial condition of MBIA bond insuring company. Governor Spitzer and the New York state insurance superintendent are trying to get big banks to invest in or lend money to MBIA. Also not clear is the financial condition of Channel Reinsurance with which MBIA has reinsured $43 billion of securities.

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President Biden has praise for William Burns for good intelligence delivered with honesty and integrity on China, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and emerging technologies. For three decades Burns has served in the US Foreign Service and performed work that is similar to that of another veteran diplomat Mr. Jaishankar of India. America turned to Burns to end the war in Afghanistan under president Biden, and now faces the Ukraine conflict with "clear straightforward analysis" given to the president, in the words Biden used for Bill Burns.

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Medicaid is now costing the US about 880 billion dollars in 2025. Of this 69% is covered by Federal dollars sent to the states. WSJ reports- 2025 DJT action on Medicaid calls for around $800 billion  savings over 10 years in Medicaid cuts that would come from $109 billion savings over 10 years for work requirement. And $600 billion savings over 10 years from paying only 90% (not 100%) for the people added to Medicaid by Obama that are in better health than the core Medicaid population who get only 90%.

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Claire Cain Miller is a Pulitzer Prize winner for public service. Here she writes about the results of the Pew Survey on Parenting. It shows that many of today's parents feel they had emotional needs which were not met and are trying harder to do this for their children, to show love and build relationships with their children. In open ended responses they say want to check in on the emotions of their children to see how they are.  About one third of mothers say parenting is a lot harder than expected. parents today worry about the mental health of their children, about anxiety and depression. Mothers also found competing pull from work and careers which made it a lot harder. During Covid many mothers simply focused on the children and gave up work to do this. Economic anxieties are also present for today's parents who see the financial independence of their children and finding careers they enjoy as more important than starting families of their own. ...

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Overworking in investment banking has become a serious issue with serious effects on health. It is the focus of a WSJ exclusive report on the casualties coming out of an erratic approach to worklife and health. WSJ says it has become a norm to ignore policies set banks a decade ago after similar death and toxic work situations. Bosses it says make impossible and unreasonable demands and younger workers in deference to this are put in a dangerous situation. All this for $200,000 in entry level positions- now Dimon CEO of Chase JP Morgan asks what can we learn from this, saying there are many people at Chase "who give a damn about the human beings at work in this company." The results delivered are also not what is good for the country. Much of the capital allocation that takes place though investment banking leads to enormous waste and poor investment returns. And this is happening as needed funding for infrastructure and other projects for education health and public services remain unaddressed. ...

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The second wave is here in Britain with Stage 4 "exponential" increase seen in Britain. Cases could rise four fold from over 4000 today, after rising four fold in the last month Aug 20- September 20, and that could make it reach 50,000 cases a day and 200 deaths a day. New restrictions include- Masks required in all retail stores and restaurants and public places. Businesses that breach rules could be closed or shut down. Pubs, bars and restaurants close by 10 pm and only table service. Weddings and receptions limited to 10 people. Individual fines for first time breaches doubled to 200 pounds. Adult indoor team sports not allowed. This is the first response. If infection rates are not down from the over 1 R rate and the transmission increases a national lockdown is considered as the next step. To not harm the economy and strike a delicate balance all who can work from home are encouraged to work from home.      ...

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Inspirational talk given to Prime Minister's Office Staff on June 10, 2024, by Indian PM Narendra Modi. In this video Modi tells staff about the nature of the PM's office as a catalytic agent for creating new enthusiasm and energy for the nation's development efforts. Before 2014 prime ministers before him considered this as a power center, says Modi. He tells staff that the development effort was hard work for achieving the vision of a modern developed nation Vikshit Bharat 2047. That this was work 24 hours a day 7 days a week to accomplish goals set to meet the aspirations of 1400 million people in India. He says three points to remember was that work had to be done with concentration on the goal without getting distracted and determination to achieve it, second to have the character to do this in real life setting priorities and tasks. Third, the frame of mind that is always learning, always studying, always acquiring new knowledge about the tasks ahead.  ...

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Germany's kurzabeit or short work system avoids layoffs in a crisis. The Bundestag parliament in Germany quickly reintroduced it following the coronavirus. It provides subsidy to employers so that wages of upto 2500 euros can be paid to employees. The German parliament changed the requirement that makes it law fro a 30% of workers of a company being impacted by a crisis to 10%. About 2.3 million workers will benefit at a cost of 10 billion euros says this report in The Financial Times. The Federal labor office has a fund of $26 billion to which workers and employers contributed just for this purpose of safety net.  Workers get about 60% of their wages under this scheme while the crisis lasts. The last time it was used during the financial crisis of 2008-2009 1.3 million workers benefited from this scheme to prevent layoffs.  Germany with its strong vocational training system invests in worker training. The logical next step was to preserve this knowledge component of workers and avoid its loss through layoffs due to some crisis that is temporary and beyond the control of the company. Britain is adopting this idea this time with the British Treasury supporting  80% of lost wages upto 2500 pounds a month in the new economic aid package announced by the British government. Spain has a scheme under ERTE for 70% of wages to be paid as safety net. France has set aside 8.5 billion euros aid for assistance to workers in a similar scheme as safety net. ...