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Two thirds of Americans are becoming pessimistic about the economy. This is one of the results of a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll. This is up from 53% in January. Voters are losing confidence in the idea that the Democrats can come up with better solutions than the Republicans. Only 24% of those polled have positive feelings for the Republican party, with Democrats doing only slightly better. Democratic pollster, Peter Hart- who along with Republican pollster Bill McInturff conducted the survey- calls it the JetBlue election. This description is from the JetBlue flight attendent who ran from the plane after exiting through an emergency chute. There is a sense of severe discomfort and looking for the exit, he says. With 6 in 10 of those polled expressing a loss of confidence in the policies of the Obama administration to improve the economy, including 83% of independents, and a quarter of Democrats. The situation has deteriorated on the confidence level with the war in Afghanistan as well. 68% of those polled say they are less confident now that the war in Afghanistan can be brought to a successful conclusion....

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Narendra Modi's victory speech in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India, on May 16, 2014, in which he focussed on "development" of a united India, of a billion people all putting in their own efforts in every sphere of development. He said he needed 10 years to make the dreams of development and good governance a reality in India.

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China's ginni coefficient at 0.5, has changed from 0.3 several decades ago, according to Li Shi at Beijing Normal University. A level above 0.4 is considered socially destabilizing. 150 million migrant workers from rural areas are denied access to benefits such as health care, education and pensions which are provided to urban residents. Migrant incomes are also affected by rising food prices. Estimates of per capita income are $935 a year for rural areas, up 13% in 2010, and $2,965 in urban areas, up 10 % in 2010. An economist at the National Economic Research Institute in Beijing says the income gap is understated because the incomes of families in the higher end are understated.

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France's president Sarkozy, said of British demands to protect its financial industry: "To accept a reform of the treaties by all 27 countries, David Cameron asked what we all considered unacceptable: a protocol in the treaty which would exonerate the U.K. on a certain number of regulations on financial services." British demands included one that would have made transfers of power from a national regulator to a E.U. regulator subject to a British veto, and a committment to keeping the European Banking Authority in London. To European leaders who are dealing with the fallout from years of weak regulation and bad loan decisions by banks, Britain's efforts to shield its banking industry was seen negatively. Efforts by Cameron to win exemptions for Britain's financial sector during a time of severe financial crisis is only leading to Britain becoming isolated from the 26 other countries in the European Union.

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U.S. auto sales including cars and light trucks reached 17.5 million in 2015, a 5.7% increase over 2014. Larger vehicles including pickup tucks and SUV's account for about half of all auto sales in 2015, with gas prices below $2.00 a gallon in Jan 2016 in most parts of the U.S. The average transaction price was up to $34,428, according to Kelley Blue Book. Auto incentives were up to $3063 per vehicle compared to $2809 ten years earlier, according to Kelley Blue Book. Analysts say automakers will reduce margins to subsidize zero interest loans in 2016 to increase sales. Lower sales are forecast after 2017 as the market will have caught up with much of the pent up demand by then. A plus for the automakers is the lower cost of steel and other material costs, and the better cost structures after bankruptcy, and renegotiated lower union pay scales. Additional plus is new management at U.S. automakers and at Toyota, and the technological advances this management is pushing, including fuel efficiency. Ride sharing, and other services developed by Google, are seen as disrupting the traditional car model to a limited extent. Countering this new development are millenials who are accounting for a quarter of Toyota sales in the last quarter of 2015, according to a Toyota executive....

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Enrique Pena Nieto of the PRI party wins the presidential election in Mexico with 38% of the vote. Lopez Manuel Obrador came second with 31% of the vote, and the candidate of the ruling PAN party, Ms. Vazquez Mota came in third with 26% of the vote. Voters were eager for change afer 12 years of rule by the PAN party under Vicente Fox and Felipe Calderon. Mexico averaged growth of 2% during these years, though growth has increased since the financial crisis. But the benefits of globalization, foreign investment, and trade reached the better educated and skilled workers leaving many behind. This period included negative growth during the 2008 financial crisis. .

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New York state governor Andrew Cuomo says the turnaound in the last 15 months for the state budget shows that things went from "a model of dysfunction to a model of function."

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Even with the growth strategies of the Abe administration in 2014, projections of the IMF show growth rate for Japan are at 1.0% for 2015, compared to 3% for the U.S., 2.5% for UK, and 1.6% for Germany. The Third Arrow in prime minister Abe's Three Arrows program now follows the implementation of the other two Arrows- monetary easing and public works spending. Abe is faced with the task of convincing foreign and domestic investors that he can implement a winning growth strategy for Japan. The plan announced in June 2014 is an effort to overcome barriers to growth with a strategy that will work. The core of the plan is to cut the corporate tax rate from 35.64% to below 30% in the next couple of years. The corporations are expected to do their part to improve corporate governance and return on equity, so that shareholders, domestic and foreign investors, have more incentives to invest in the Japanese stock market. Analysts and economists say this plan has attractive features. It asks Japanese companies to increase ROE and ROI to global levels through a Tokyo Stock Exchange corporate governance code. Companies listed on TSE and not following the code will have to come up with reasons why they are failing to do so. Some analysts say this would increase the value of companies. Companies are more likely to make investments with cash that is not being invested. The plan includes measures for bringing more women into the workforce, which is seen as a serious committment to women. In addition to increasing the number of child care centers, this plan includes tax revisions that benefit women joining the workforce. Increased representation for women at the executive level is also part of this plan. Hiroshige Seko, a top adviser to Abe, says importance was given to execution for results, so that a score of 80 with definite results was preferred to an uncertain attempt to get a 100. To do this some compromises were made. The plan for special economic zones is still in the drafting stage as discussion is just beginning. A shakeup of the Central Union of Agricultural Cooperatives and more flexible medical care will be taken up gradually. The efforts to increase ROI, ROE, and improve corporate governance were initiated from the time of the Koizumi administration, and the latest plan may bring results after over a decade of effort in this direction....

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Sharp drop in oil prices in Dec. 2015.

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John Taylor on the dangers of a loose U.S. monetary policy and the effects this had in fueling a housing bubble in Spain, Ireland and other EU countries. Taylor points to the bubble ocurring in emerging market economies from low interest rates. Taylor says the ECB's interest rate moves in 2003-2005 were affected by the Fed's low interest rates. He estimates the ECB set rates about two percentage points too low leading to housing bubbles in EU countries. A similiar process is taking place today with the Fed's near zero interest rate policy. Taylor points to interest rates in a group of 18 emerging market economies- including Brazil, China, India, Mexico and Turkey, which have held interest rates on average about 5 percentage points below widely used benchmarks fueling a doubling of global commodity prices between 2009-2011. The U.S. Fed's policies make it harder for central banks in emerging market economies to take aggresssive action against bubbles developing in these countries. Taylor says his does not mean that the Fed should not pay attention to the U.S. unemployment rate and long term unemployed, but should keep in mind the negative effects of slowing demand in emerging market economies and in the EU as a result of its monetary policy of keeping rates at near zero for long periods of time. This feeds back to the U.S. economy at a critical time....

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Scott Anderson of the NYT provides an indepth look at the Arab World and its fragmentation through the eyes of five people from each part of the Arab world- Egyptian, Kurd, Syrian, Iraqi and Jordanian. He says the countries that fell apart are precisely the ones that were formed by the British and the French, and Italy, following the defeat of the Ottoman Empire  using divide and rule policies- Britain in Iraq, France in Syria, and Italy in Libya- without much thought given to setting up viable nation states. This is why Iraq has a Sunni-Shia divide, Syria has similar divisions, and Libya with a largely tribal based structure, never really held together after the colonial powers left, and were held together only by strong dictators. Today's problems trace back to these historical events. This is complicated by the largely young demographic and restlessness of the people for change coupled with problems of underdevelopment in education, tribal loyalties, religious loyalties, and lack of political and social structures that could keep the countries together as change and transition to democratic processes took place. The role of the military further complicated matters in Egypt. Even Iran experienced these divisions because of the intervention of the great powers including Russia in Iran since 1900, leading to swings between liberal governments, foreign power supported governments, and a swing back to religious leadership as at present. This is one view of the region, others are presented by Ramadan (Oxford),  Bernard Lewis (Princeton), and leaders in Qatar and Emirates, other experts, some of whom point to the failure in leadership and the elites to find solutions to the problems of underdevelopment, in education, health, infrastructure, and aspirations for a voice in their governance. As the same divisions left by colonial powers affected Asia- in India, China, and Korea, but a larger vision of progress prevailed through crises and difficulties.        ...

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Senators opposed to renomination of Bernanke to Fed chairman position include Boxer, Feingold, Sanders, and a non-commital Reid. Growing crtiticism of the Fed and the cozy relationship between Bernanke, Geithner, Summers, and the bankers. The role of Bernanke in the Greenspan years of low interest rates and high liquidity both in Congress and in the country as the national mood changes.

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The Home Affordable Refinance Program's (HARP) gradual success in 2012-2013 in reducing foreclosures, after struggling in 2010-2011. From about cumulative 1 million who refinanced loans under HARP for relief in home payments the numbers went up to close to 3 million by the end of 2013, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Of this a major proportion were people who owed less than 105% of their home's value. The performance of the program improved with a revamp of HARP at the end of 2011.

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George Osborne, Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer, says he supports giving regulators powers to take action to split banks that do not ring fence their risky operations and separate deposit taking from risk taking activities. He says this as parliament considers legislation on banking regulation after the LIBOR investigations and problems in British banking following the 2008 financial crisis. Osborne said: "Irresponsible behavior was rewarded, failure was bailed out, and the innocent- people who have nothing to do whatsoever with the banks- suffered." Referring to the larger role of the financial industry in the British economy, Osborne stated: "Our country has paid a higher price than any other major economy for what went so badly wrong in our banking system." This comes as Britain feels the impact of a decline in growth in 2013.