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Jaishankar on the connection between the Indian and Pacific Ocean region into one integral whole with the emergence of independent nations from the British, French, and Dutch Empires in the region, and the growth of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Philippines and Thailand. The growth of trade and use of sea lanes for supply chains, modern shipping and logistics, have created sea lanes that stretch from the Gulf and Suez to Hawaii and Seattle. India plays a critical role with the US, Australia and Japan to ensure international law and open shipping lanes for all nations in the Indo-Pacific. Jaishankar also touches on infrastructure developments such as the new Trilateral Highway that connects India's northeast to Burma and Thailand. This opens up ties on land between the three nations with connections into Malaysia and Indonesia. That would enhance the movement open people and goods, and cultural connect that would create a new northeast- southeast Asian connection. It restores what was the long lost connection that India once had with nations from Thailand to Indonesia, and Vietnam to Japan through China. This is the connection that brought Buddhism from India's north east in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh to these countries.  Look East, Act East, the Quad, Indo-Pacific Economic Framework are all ways of saying the same thing of making the East connections the vital ones in India's social, economic and political, cultural life, restoring the connections in which India thrived and existed as one entity. It also brings life to the Gulf countries which are otherwise isolated in a sea of European nations on one side of the Mediterranean and Russia on the other side near the Black Sea that have different historical interests and cultures. This sees the central Asian connections through Afghanistan as being secondary and of less significance in the long history of nations such as India, China, Korea and Japan from the Buddhist era. That secondary connection brought an interruption of the long Buddhism and Vedanta civilization in India, intermittent wars, and the division of the country under the British Empire. It is a natural progression in a long history that seeks to restore the natural and intuitive connections to the Vedanta and Buddhist regions in the East that are part of the Indo-Pacific. These are now integrated with the settlers from Britain who sought to build better and fairer societies based on the rights of man in the new nations of Australia and America. This gives new life and meaning to this vast Indo-Pacific region. The British Empire and the other colonial empires simply bring back an orientation to the period of colonial wars of the nineteenth and twentieth century, which tore apart China and then Japan, and used resources in India for these wars, and which ended with the atomic bomb in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. These wars also leave behind memories in China, Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan and Korea that can only be truly be put behind by looking at Vedanta and Buddhist Asia as it once was from India to China to Japan. And to the regions of Australia and the US that brought new meaning to the modern scientific period and the rights of man in settler societies away from Europe. ...

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France sees a surge in bookings for vaccination after president Macron announces that vaccination pass will be required to go out to eat or drink, go to a shopping center, or to take a long distance train. Macron said "The health pass is not obligatory right away, but we are going to extend the health pass to the maximum to encourage as many of you as possible to get yourselves vaccinated."

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India China Border and rail connection $40 billion project Chengdu to Lhasa 2025. The infrastructure brings China greater access to the western region of China some of it from the occupation of Tibet in the 1950's that now makes up territory the size of 80% of the contiguous US. India is rapidly modernizing it's side of the border with tunnels and bridges.  This situation is new. For most of history from 1000 to 1950's China had only a remote connection with the Tibetan and Indian border regions where nomadic tribes and Tibetans lived. Very few Chinese numbering by the hundreds or a few thousands may have visited the region as even under the British contacts were very limited with Tibet and border regions in the Himalayas. For China it is far from its major population centers in Beijing and Shanghai and Hong Kong, Shenzen. And it provides few advantages in spreading over a vast region that is remote and in high over 15,000 feet in the Tibetan and border regions. It is only the invasion of Korea and China by Japan in the close of the nineteenth and early part of the 20th century that has created the idea of having buffer regions that protect it from foreign powers. And this is what may happen over the next 50 years as the region goes back to what it was before the 1950's, but with modernization, as India does not seek to reach out beyond Himalayan borders into regions closer to China. ...

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Efforts to revive the Chinese Communist party, and facilitate the evolution of a new economic--political model that helps control corruption. Efforts also to get the involvement of non-governmental organizations from society. The city of Shenzen, near Hong Kong, is being used as the model. It was here that the current economic-political model was first established, through the Shenzen Special Economc Zone.

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U.S. Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen, says the Fed will be prepared to respond to the "twists and turns" in the recovering U.S. economy in 2014-2015. In many ways Yellen finds the recovery "disappointingly slow and consistent expectations for a pickup in growth dashed over a number of years." She sees the labor market behaving in "some perplexing ways and showing patterns that are novel." The high rate of long term unemployed is an abiding concern and Yellen says a healthy job market is "more than 2 years away." This clarifies remarks made at her first press conference, which were interpreted to mean the Fed would raise rates in a much shorter time frame. U.S. stock markets responded favorably to her remarks after declines and volatility over several weeks following the previous press conference.

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Hilsenrath goes over some of the troubling signs behind the postive job numbers for April 2014. Part time workers looking for full time work actually increased in April 2014 to 7.5 million. More individuals in prime working years of 25-54 dropped out of the work force discouraged and stopped looking for work, with the percentage for this group who are working dropping to 80.8% in April 2014. Wage growth and worker productivity was stagnant. Donald Kohn, a former vice chairman of the Fed, joins other economists who are puzzled by the lack of wage growth and the large number of long term unemployed behind the positive job numbers of 288,000 for April 2014.

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Fausset of the NYT looks at a rust belt city in the U.S. midwest that has suffered as U.S. manufacturing declined. Much of the decline happened in the 1980's in the steel industry in competition with Japanese imports. North of town there is a GM plant that makes the Chevy Cruze. The unemployment rate of 17% in 2010 has dropped to 7.6%. Fausset describes the life of a retired steel worker on state pension who works in law enforcement. He is Joe Marshall Jr. from the song by Bruce Springsteen about a steel worker who the singer read about in a book. Youngstown appears to be divided by people who support Trump and Clinton.

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Thucydides, Greek historian on the Peloponnesian War between Sparta and Athens 431 BC, cited by Xi Jinping of China during DJT visit to China, May 2026. “Can China and the United States transcend the so-called ‘Thucydides Trap’ and forge a new paradigm for major-power relations?” "Thucydides Trap," is about one established power being threatened by another rising power, as Sparta felt threatened by a rising Athens in the Greek world around 431 BC, leading to a long over 30 years war.  “The Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations,” Xi said, of Taiwan, an island near China's coast where ChiangKaishek set up his government after the fall of his government in Beijing in 1949 to Communist People's Army of Mao Zedong. “If mishandled, the two nations could collide or even come into conflict, pushing the entire China-US relationship into a highly perilous situation."  What China sees is a future of strong economic growth based on China having built its industrial strength and world trade to exceed 1.2 trillion dollars of trade surplus in 2026. Yet this is only the beginning. US and European Union, and India+Japan are three economic regions compared to the situation in Greek history. The combined three economic regions potential for scientific and industrial advances in the future till 2045 in a synergistic fashion one building on top of the other's advances, far exceed the potential of the Chinese economy and industry by itself. This is why any such conflict may over time fizzle away as three economic regions of EU, US and India advance, particularly the 1.4 billion people of India, which will see growth rates of 20% annually for 10 years to 2035 in Eastern Indian region of the size of the EU. That region extends from Lucknow and Patna to Vizag and Chennai. Another aspect of this concerns China itself which sees slowing growth of 5% in 2026. Growth could slow further as US, European Union and India/Japan push back on Chinese exports during a period of reindustrialization in US, EU, Japan and rapid industrial development in India to 2040. China's development is only midway in terms of per capita GNP which lags most of Europe and the US, Japan. Thus the main concern in China is that China will not be able top go beyond middle income country as its demographics and aging population look more like Japan's over the period 2026-2040. China needs the US EU trade and markets for it to meet the needs and aspirations of its 1.4 billon people as the other engines of development such as housing construction, infrastructure building, have lost momentum. ...

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This NYT report follows other reports about the inefficiencies and mismanagement in the New York Subway System. As a result it cost $3.5 billion for laying one mile of subway track on the Long Island Rail Project- 7 times what it costs in other parts of the world. It cost $2.5 billion for the Second Avenue Subway just to lay one mile of subway track on the Upper East Side of New York. In this way cost for the Long Island Rail Project jumped to $12.5 billion. What this means is that there is less money for regular maintenance, a topic covered in another NYT report. With less required maintenance there are costly delays for people using the subways. Worse the NYT reports politicians have not hesitated to do what they should not have done- burden the MTA with debt and divert money away from things that are badly needed such as maintenance. 

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The US central bank, the Fed, signals smaller rate increases in the future after another rate increase of 0.75% in November 2022. "It is very premature to be thinking of pausing. We have a ways to go," says Fed chairman Jerome Powell. He added that - "the question of when to moderate the pace of rate  increases is now less important than the question of how high to raise interest rates and how long to keep monetary policy restrictive." The move raises rates in the US to between 3.75% and 4.0%. Rates could go up to 5% in 2023.

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"Its a sign of the decline of the country, and this decline is unacceptable," says a key Macron ally, Francois Bayrou, who heads long term state planning. France lacks a vaccine developed by its scientists. France was a leader in vaccine technology and the world looked up to France for new medical breakthroughs. Something has gone wrong and this is causing soul searching in France and friendly countries. 

The Pasteur Institute was a leader in medical science. It has failed to develop a vaccine. Sanofi says it will be the end of the year 2021 when a vaccine is developed.

 

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Indian Railways is going through a huge modernization program making travel at high speeds possible between major cities and making remote locations accessible. This BBC report looks at the travel that was done in the older version of Indian Railways in crowded rail compartments and different conditions. Rail travel to Baramulla in Kashmir and Rameswaram in Tamilnadu state are shown at different ends of India. This is changing rapidly as more modern trains which cover long distances in a few hours are taking the place of older trains. Modern rail stations are replacing old ones with levels of convenience and technology matching that in Europe.

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The dangers from climate change to the fresh water supply from the entire Tibetan plateau to southern Asia is shown in videos and pictures in DW.com. There is a severe decline in terrestrial water storage which includes above and below ground water. Associate Prof Di Long at Tsinghua University says terrestrial water storage across this region is critical for water availability and highly sensitive to climate change. A team of scientists from Penn State in US, Tsinghua University in Beijing, and University of Texas has found loss of water in Tibetan plateau of 15.8 gigatons per year (15.8 billion tons) in some areas of Tibetan plateau. 

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Rosalynn Carter is the most politically active first lady since Eleanor Roosevelt. She actively participated in Jimmy Carter's political campaigns first for governor of Georgia, then for the US presidency as a Democrat in 1976. Both come from a small peanut farming town of Plains, Georgia. Carter served in the Navy and went to Annapolis for naval training. After leaving the presidency the Carters wer active in humanitarian efforts to tackle disease in Africa and in other efforts including Habitat for Humanity building homes for lower income Americans. No president has served in this way for this long as Jimmy Carter.

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Ms. Powell Jobs, the wife of Steve Jobs of Apple has a long relationship with Kamala Harris since the days she ran for Attorney General of California. She has followed Kamal Harris's career in politics over 2 decades. It is a friendship of shared interests in arts and culture, in political philosophy, and shared feelings in being women in the spotlight, says this report by Theodore Schleifer in the NYT. It is less about money, though it sounds odd to say this, than in a shared sense of purpose and as women caught up in events at this time in history.

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A former WSJ Detroit Bureau chief says that if GM is to receive help it should go into government receivership, old management and the board have to go, shareholders would lose value as shares become worthless, and old union contracts have to go, and only then would the industry get back on its feet. The same should happen for Ford and Cerberus, and the shares becoming worthless would take away the control that the Ford family has of the company, giving it a fresh start with new management. He is saying what many have thought true for a long time, management of these companies have failed Detroit and the midwestern states for a long time, for decades in which management has simply protected its own interests and avoided taking the steps needed for renewal of the companies. The few changes have simply come so late and are inadequate in this crisis.

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Parents and teachers in Germany are skeptical of school reopening because of the lax rules for mostly unvaccinated children. Teachers are not required to be vaccinated and show digital certificate of vaccination as is the case in Italy. Teachers and parents see the return to normalcy not lasting long  with the relaxed rules. Britain is also following school reopening with relaxed rules going so far as to not require social distancing or masks. Health experts question this policy.

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What life is like outside a factory in after hours for workers seeking a change from endless monotony, long hours and strict regimens on a Foxconn supplier factory floor. The factory run by Apple's supplier makes iPhones 24 hours a day. It is located in Zhengzhou, China.

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Norris provides an insightful account into the research and thinking of Janet Yellen, the new chairwoman of the U.S. Federal Reserve. In her research work Fed chairwoman Yellen has placed importance on the long term unemployment rate and the difficulties workers unemployed for long period have in finding work. This is likely to determine Fed policy on interest rates as the unemployment rate inches closer to the Fed target of 6.5% set by Bernanke in Dec. 2012. Norris points out the emphasis Yelen has placed on this in speeches since being nominated to succeed Ben Bernanke at the Fed. In a recent speech Yellen emphasized that in the recession of the early 1980's median time unemployed people said they were unemployed was 12 weeks, which jumped to 25 weeks for about 6 months in 2010 and is at 17 weeks in the most recent jobs report. Another indicator Yellen has emphasized is labor's share of income in the nonfinancial corporate sector which remained between 66% and 61% from 1950 to early 2000's. This fell below 60% in 2005 and is at 57.1% barely budging from the 2011 figure. In papers written with George Ackerloff, Yellen has advanced the "fair-wage hypothesis," that workers do not do as good a job when wages are held down. Their research also shows its normal for workers in periods of recession to hold out against the lower salaries offered during recession periods, because these workers tend to fall behind newer workers hired with better wages later when the economy recovers. At the confirmation hearing Yellen made it clear that the Fed would do all it can to help the long term unemployed by creating a stronger job market, a job market where these workers would be drawn into work and employers provide job training as well as opportunities for advancement....

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During the November 2011 to February 2012 period Spanish banks increased holdings of government bonds by 68 billion euros, and Italian banks by 54 billion euros under the ECB's Long Term Financing Operation. That program helped to lower bond yields of the two countries for the 1st quarter of 2012. With Spain's economy facing more austerity measures at a time of 23% unemployment, bond yields have moved back up for Spain in April 2012. The increased holdings of government bonds by Spanish banks increases risks at a time when banks in Spain have not increased lending in the economy and hold a large number of bad mortgages in the country's housing bust.

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How returns in the U.S. stock markets of over 30% in 2013 change the picture of five year returns to the end of 2013 compared to the end of 2012. Long run has to be much more than 5 years and even longer for decent returns.