LyrArc Article Gist
German views on Trump's economic policies are described by DW.com's Jeffrey Michels. German business sees a Trump presidency increasing the uncertainty affecting the global economy, a kind of second hit after the hit from Brexit. There is concern about the $114 billion euros in exports made by Germany to the U.S., because of Trump's increasingly protectionist policies. Trump could move to the centre, but so far these populist policies have helped Trump win in the primaries, and this is unlikely to change in the election campaign,  says DW.com.  Trump opposes the TTIP trade agreement with European Union, and because of opposition in Germany, these negotiations are likely to flounder. Even under a Clinton presidency there is little support for more trade agreements, and economist Krugman points out that most of the gains from free trade have already been made. 

LyrArc Article Gist
A 35 year old Engineering professor from Texas who studies how transportation systems propagate infectious diseases and her 2 graduate students from China started and since January maintain the database of coronavirus confirmed cases and deaths. This is one of the widely used databases, also used by public health officials in the U.S. The database was started with a hunch from one of Lauren Gardner's students from China Ensheng Dong who comes from Shanxi province, north of Wuhan. A geography and mapping specialist he had studied in the U.S. since 2012, and spent many hours inputting data by hand following his classes. This WSJ report says the website was built in 1 day and was launched on January 22, when the coronavirus cases were practically nonexistent in the rest of the world and were concentrated in the Wuhan area. This report says behind the data reported in the media everyday is a complicated supply chain filled with challenges that come with data, what is reported, underreported and with what assumptions it is reported. Dr. Gardner says she is dealing with so much data on her dashboard, 4000 points of data, that its hard enough to pull all the data scraped together from different sources, its impossible for her to check the assumptions behind the data for consistency and trying to figure out facts underlying the data.  One of the ways the virus developed in the rest of the world is the surprise with which it caught western countries and then the rest of the world. As a result something that the government authorites would do such as the Centres of Disease Control is being done in a totally ad hoc manner. The U.S. government uses the University of Washington Health Metrics database, and in turn the University of Washington Health Metrics database takes some of the data from the John Hopkins database. Because a complacent population in the western countries were relying on numbers counted as cases to know how serious this epidemic was or whether there was an epidemic, the significance of data count from China assumed a signifcance far out of proportion to what it might normally be. This was because the western countries in Europe and America never encountered an epidemic of this kind in living memory, the last one forgotten from 1917 hundred years ago. Researchers in Gottingen University study in Germany conducted analysis of data in studies of cases published in Lancet Journal and found that only 6% of cases were being shown- that a much larger part of the population was infected. A researcher at Princeton University Ramanan Laxminarayan says countries tend to delay reporting until a problem becomes certain, because telling others comes with economic costs such as a rapid drop in trade and travel. Yet he says early warning systems are key to prevention. Early warning from the different publicly available data bases was not possible for many reasons. Relying on such ad hoc data was hazardous considering that as the NYT reported recently when there was the first confirmed detected case reported in New York there were already 10,000 persons estimated to be undetected. James Glanz and Benedict Carey, say in the NYT.com on May 7, that hidden outbreaks spread through U.S. cities far earlier than Americans knew, estimates show, which makes the publicly available databases giving a false sense of security, and not acting as an early warning because of the inadequacy of the resources for this task for individual researchers to handle. Not depending on  hurriedly put together databases with inadequate resources and having an independent sense of what the danger was as German chancellor Merkel described it in her first coronavirus address in March, was a better early warning signal than the databases in retrospect. And this too had come late. The reason is that the response had to be fast, very fast, and public perceptions had to be shaped quickly about the magnitude and speed of enormous proportions of the coronavirus, so that actions could be shaped quickly and executed quickly to stop it in its tracks.    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Senate voted 63 to 35 passing legislation that forces the U.S. government to seek tariffs and other action against countries with "misaligned" currencies."

LyrArc Article Gist
Pearlstein says the major news stories of today all are about the same theme- of how the US was encouraged to live beyond its means by trading partners who prospered as this went on, with the tacit agreement of financial and political leadership in the US who raised no alarm about this. These stories are: the G-20 meeting in South Korea with the goal of rebalancing the world economy, the President's Deficit Commission Report recommending bold steps in changing the tax and spending policies of the US, the criticism of the Fed's decision on $600 billion of quantitative easing, and the renewed concerns about Ireland where severe cuts in public spending have failed to reverse a downward slide.These trading partners prospered by lending Americans the money to consume more than they produce. It was he says a wonderful arrangement while it lasted, because it helped bring millions out of poverty in Asia, while letting Americans enjoy a transitory period of a higher standard of living. This unsustainable arrangement converted the US from world's biggest creditor nation after World War II to the world's bigggest debtor nation. He credits Geithner for coming up with a more convincing and less confrontational way to correct the imbalances by setting limits on the deficits and surpluses of trading nations. He points out that the Chinese have barely budged on the issue of an undervalued currency, the world be damned. And the German and Chinese criticism rings hollow he says, as both countries are the main beneficiaries of the current system. The normal mechanism of correcting imbalances with a floating rate exchange system is hardly relevant, as it is incompatible with state run economy and strategy of export growth of China. Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson have presented he says a bold deficit reduction plan that is credible, fair, economically sound. Even though it was received with the usual complacency and lack of awareness both in the media and in Congress. The simple reality after all the awfully complicated details and the painful implications is this: Americans have to consume less and produce more, and trading partners have to consume more and produce less. And this shift cannot be pushed into the future as our trading partners would like....

LyrArc Article Gist
Anton Harder in this Wilson Center publication of research uses correspondence between Jawaharlal Nehru and his sister Vijaylakshmi Pandit ambassador to the US in 1950, to show that the US made an offer for India to take a permanent seat at the UN Security Council. India had supported two resolutions on June 25, and June 27, first condemning the invasion by North Korea and second the organizing of a UN force of 29 countries to push back the North Korean invasion. Even though the US is not seen as actively engaging with India during that period and seeing through British eyes the colonial policies of encouraging  different powers in South Asia, that may not be true.  Who was India's foreign minister in 1950? Jawaharlal Nehru was both prime minister and foreign minister till 1964, which means there was less discussion of foreign policy than happens today during the Ukraine invasion with Jaishankar a career diplomat with 30 years experience, Rajnath Singh, and Mr. Modi, in talks with president Biden recently, and in further discussions Modi had with EU's Von der Leyen and UK's Boris Johnson, Kishida of Japan. Who was India's defense minister in 1950? Baldev Singh, a Sikh independence struggle leader was Minister of Defense for 1947-52 and tackled partition of Punjab and Kashmir issues. The rest of the years to 1957 when India faced the Chinese invasion of Tibet India's defense minister was also for most of the period Mr. Nehru, except Ayynagar in 1953, and Kailash Katju in 1955 and 1956. The controversial V.K. Krishna Menon was Defense Minister from 1957 to 1962, when Indian defenses were further neglected leading to the Chinese invasion of India in 1962, and his replacement by Yashwantrao Chavan. The purpose of this is to look back at what happened in earlier periods to understand where India stands today- and what choices it makes today. Clearly the US was looking for allies then and now. Nehru saw things from his own reading of history seeing China and India as both suffering from western invasion, not realizing that China's experience under Mao was different- that of Japanese invasion and bombing of China's major cities not just colonization of Hong Kong and other ports for trade under British trade based policies in 1850-1900. Thus a Communist Chinese version of China's defense involved taking over border regions such as Tibet putting China in direct and open opposition to India. Nehru never really grasped what was happening in Tibet and the war China fought against the Nationalists. American general Stilwell loved China deeply and had an understanding of its people as shown in Tuchman's account in her book Stilwell and the American Experience in China 1911-1945. Stilwell during that war had a better understanding of China, the strengths and weaknesses of Mao's China and of the Nationalists under Chiang, than Nehru. Some of these errors post 1950's and a concentration of foreign, defense and embassy positions in the person of Mr. Nehru and of Nehru family member such as Mrs. Pandit led to the Indian failure to act on Tibet and see it as see it for what it was -facing a Communist Mao led China that had fought the Japanese invasion as different from Bodhidharma's China of the history books. Bodhidharma's China will outlast Mao's China, yet it is Mao's China that India faces today. This also tells us that India has to think in new ways- as Lincoln said during a period when America was also making its own progress as an industrial nation in the 1860's. "The dogmas of the quiet past are not adequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise to the occasion. As our case is new, we must think anew, we must act anew. We must disenthrall ourselves, and we shall save our country." India's values are values of democracy heightened not just by Mohandas Gandhi's ideas with Hind Swaraj written in 1910 just as powerful in 2022, but also by the heights of Ladakh where elections are held in remote regions of the Himalayas. India's values are values that are also shared in the best that America has in its values and culture and in the defense of freedom.    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
China's exports were able to show year over year growth of 7.6% in the first quarter of 2012, a sharp decline from 20.3% in 2011. As a result IMF estimates of China's long term current account surplus which were about 7% of GDP in the World Economic Outlook in Sept. 2011 may now be lowered to about 5%. This would reduce the strength of arguments that the yen is undervalued. The IMF is now engaged in making estimates for current account balances till 2017. China's current account surplus peaked at 10.1% of GDP in 2007 and the IMF forecasts in 2008 were for this to remain at 10% for the long term. The situation is rapidly changing because the most recent estimates from China's State Administration for Foreign Exchange show the actual current account surplus for 2011 at 2.8% of GDP. Since the 2010 Group of 20 nations summit meeting when China was pressured to reduce its trade surplus and let the yuan appreciate, the yuan has appreciated by 8.3%.

LyrArc Article Gist
The National Assessment of Educational Progess (NAEP) test scores in the U.S. for K-12 show a lack of progress since 2013. Scores for math and reading dropped for 8th grade students, and scores for reading were stagnant while dropping in math for 4th grade students. The test scores reflect progress in rural, suburban, urban environments, for communities that are affluent, less affluent and poor, different ethnic backgrounds. The test started in 1990 is the only one measuring national progress. The new results of NAEP are on a scale of 0 to 500, and show that in 2015 64 percent of 4th graders and 66 percent of eighth graders were not reading proficient, 60 percent of 4th graders and 67 percent of 8th graders were not math proficient. Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, do much better in the tests than Mississippi and New Mexico. Experts say a state to state comparison should separate the non native English speaking students from native English speaking, especially in states like Texas. With about two thirds of students failing the math and reading proficiency levels, growing proportions of minority Hispanic students in many states, larger proportion of less affluent students, the tests show the challenges facing America's K-12 education even after the changes introduced by Education Secretary Duncan since 2008....

LyrArc Article Gist
A survey of 414 National Association of Business Economics (NABE) economists shows Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson with 15%, overtaking Trump at 14% on who would best manage the economy. On protectionist views only 9% support this. 15% said they have no opinion and 55% said Hillary Clinton would do the best job of managing the economy. About 62% say the election uncertainty is holding back growth. Some aspects of Hillary Clinton's economic plan are the $275 billion infrastructure investment over 10 years, taking action against companies that ship jobs overseas, a capital gains tax paln that encourages long term investments, supporting $15 minimum wage, making upward mobility a top priority, providing government financed access to public colleges for working class and lower income groups. Donald Trump's plan has suffered form lack of specifics, shifting comments, lack of careful study, and excessive use of slogans. Both candidates oppose trade agreements that shift jobs overseas. Trump's plan also suffers from lack of credibility overseas as this is important in a global business structure, with fears of protectionism increasing. and reminding people of the protectionism under Smoot-Hawley that increased the damage from the depression of the thirties. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
China's push for globalization is being perceived internationally as an effort to promote its own industries.

Clashes with the U.S. on trade have changed the perception of China in global trade compared to what it was four years ago or in 2008. Tariffs in the U.S. on Chinese imports, slowing foreign investment, inflated property prices, bad debt at banks, and shrinking working age population, are leading to slowing growth which in coming years could drop from 6.1% in 2019. The Belt and Road Initiative is also being perceived differently as it has led to increased in indebtedness of countries in Africa and Asia, debt that cannot be paid back. Much of the ebullient optimism of a few years back is no longer present. The Pew Research Center survey of 34 countries in December 2019 shows about 45% of adults surveyed lacking confidence in China's policy positions in world affairs, according to this report in the WSJ.

LyrArc Article Gist
French trade unions protested against conditions at Amazon warehouses for safety during the coronavirus, says France 24. After a court decision Amazon closed all its warehouses in France till April 20. Amazon has come under greater scrutiny on this issue of worker safety and precautions both in Europe and in the U.S.

LyrArc Article Gist
Are parts of US society including business and the finance community in big urban centers not aware or conscious enough of the way fentanyl flows are destroying America both rural and urban, communities already devastated by the shipping out of jobs and factories.

For example the WSJ says on the front page story on Feb 4, 2025

"to make his point about what he sees as unfair trade practices and other issues such as fentanyl smuggling and illegal border crossings, both the stated motivations for this round of tariffs." DJT is not making a point- there are no points to make- simply stated Fentanyl is destroying American communities for a very long time.

Deaths from Fentanyl                  490,000

Deaths from Covid pandemic.    1212,000

Deaths from Vietnam War              58,210

LyrArc Article Gist
Mark Carney's program for Canada is based on 5 Actions-

1. Double the rate of home building to get 500,000 additional homes a year.

2. Ease Cost of living pressures. Reduce the lowest tax bracket rate to 14% from 15%. Scrap the sales tax on buying the first home for homes less than C$ 1 million about $720,000. Make dental care available for low income Canadians adding 4.5 million Canadioans to the national insurance program.

3. Build a national electricity grid east to west, reducing dependence on the US.  Invest in both clean energy and fossil energy.

4. Increase defense spending to 2% of the budget with $18 billion in additional spending over 4 years.

5. Invest $5 billion in ports, rail, and infrastructure to create new trade corridors.