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China is moving to shift its economy in a new direction of self-reliance on domestic consumers and local investors. Mr. Xi calls it "domestic circulation." This also means less dependence on imported technologies and inward looking policies. As the pandemic has reduced demand in other countries and as the U.S. and West tighten controls on imports and introduce new restrictions, there is the sense that the entire policy has to shift quickly to dependence on domestic consumers and investors.

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BBC reports on Iran protests January 2026. Protests happened with students, with women periodically over the last two decades. Iran over the years since the monarchy in the 1880's and democratic movements (parliaments) in 1900's, monarchy in the 1930's and 1960's, socialist governments 1960's. Cold War and restored monarchy in 1970's, religious theocracy 1990's till today has gone through many different governments. It was part of the British Empire (that included India/Pakistan) and Russia's buffer region in the 18th and 19th century.  After economic sanctions from US and Europe the economy depends on sanctioned oil exports. Its defense operations divert much of the funding from oil based resources away from economic development . Much of that was a result of the anticolonial socialist ideologies that spread from North Africa (Algeria, Egypt) to Iraq and Syria that led to wars in Egypt, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan- which also led to Iraq's version the Baathist ideology invading Iran. Russia and the US have extracted themselves at much loss from these conflicts by 2025 and are posed at a historic rapprochement in relations. For Iran there is today no danger from the region or from European powers, and like the US the people and the country are asking questions about the economic and living conditions from so much in resources now diverted to external conflicts- like the US the people in the region of Iran and the entire Middle East apart from a few small oil rich regions with a tiny part of the overall population- maybe 5% in Qatar and UAE, and Saudi- feel the impact of little investment in rapid economic development of the overall region. A region with a population close to the European Union of 500 million but a tiny fraction of economic development investment for the vast majority of people in Egypt and other parts of North Africa and regions of Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Sudan. Most of the investment of $1 trillion is concentrated in the 10% of the population of over 500 million people in oil resource Saudi Arabia, UAE/Qatar monarchies, the rest languishing in war, and now meaningless- in terms of living standards- of anticolonial ideologies or militant religious ideologies, or internecine/ethnic conflict. ...

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U.S. states face their biggest cash crisis since the Great Depression as a result of rapidly declining tax revenues with a state budget shortfall of $434 billion, says this report in the WSJ. This is larger than the 2019 K-12 education budget for every state combined, or more than twice the amount spent that year on state roads and transportation infrastructure. Rainy day funds will be exhausted by the loss in tax revenues after the pandemic closures of business. Nevada, Louisiana, New Jersey and Florida are the worst hit states. The result will be cutbacks in the future and more pressure on the retirement benefits for police, firefighters, teachers, government workers. Over 60% of the revenues of states come from sales and income taxes to meet the general operating funds. Drops in consumer spending and large job losses from the pandemic affect these revenues. Local government workforces were cut by 1 million people. In Michigan 31,000 state workers were furloughed 2 days per pay period for 10 weeks, and others were laid off. Rainy day funds set up after the 2008 crisis are exhausted. Only federal funds are keeping states afloat with a lot of uncertainty about 2021. The state budget director in Michigan calculated that even if the state got rid of 12 state departments including education environment and treasury, all reserves would be gone, and there would still be $1 billion budget shortfall. The rainy day funds set up after 2008 crisis accumulated $50 billion in U.S. states which have helped somewhat, with federal funds helping tackle shortfalls. Yet 2021 looms with huge shortfalls and expected cutbacks across the U.S. ...

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US and DJT policy to deport illegal migrants after the first year in March 2026- a reassessment on how far to go with mass deportation.

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The U.S. market has better prospects than emerging markets according to some analysts. This is because a large number of U.S. tech and blue chip companies have good earnings and cash positions, and lower valuations. Commodities prices are volatile because China is raising interest rates to control inflation, slowing growth. Many emerging markets like Russia and Brazil are dependent on commodities exports making them riskier as China's growth slows.

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There are about 2.4 million workers on American farms. 44% of them are undocumented workers says the Department of Labor.  They do jobs such as picking the fruits and vegetables that are part of the food supply. Deporting them all will increase prices of farm products as harvesting fruits and vegetables will be difficult. During the Eisenhower administration in 1953 deportation plan large growers in California and New Mexico used seasonal agricultural labor from Mexico, and the nation's food supply of vegetables and fruits depended on these workers. These companies lobbied hard for ways to keep these workers. On the other side were smaller farm owners who used fewer migrant workers. The complication this time 2024 is that unlike in 1953 under Eisenhower mass deportation when the border was otherwise peaceful, in 2024 the US has faced a decade unprecedented in its history of flows of fentanyl and drugs across the southern border. The deportation is about migrants who are not easily integrated culturally into the US, about the dangers of illegal entry in such large numbers that it disturbs the quiet life of the small towns and cities in the US. The US needs immigrants but in a planned way with legal entry, and no flows of drugs across the Border, that protects the American people and serves America's interests.    ...

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The Potential Gas Committee 2013 report showing the U.S. has 2384 trillion cubic feet of natural gas resources. The report did not identify the resources that can be extracted at a reasonable cost. This figure is 90 times the gas used in the U.S. in 2012, and about 26% higher than a report by the same industry group in 2010. About 20 companies have applied for permits to export liqufied natural gas from the U.S. to other countries.

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CEO's of more than 80 large U.S. companies have come together behind a plan that would reduce the U.S. federal deficit with tax revenue increases and reduced spending. The CEO statement was organized by the Fix the Debt campaign, a bipartisan effort inspired by Republican Alan Simpson and Democrat Erskine Bowles of the 2010 Simpson-Bowles Deficit Commission. The CEO statement calls for an overhaul of the U.S. tax code to eliminate or reduce deductions, credits and loopholes (reduction of tax expenditures also referred to as "broadening the base"). The CEO statement says any fiscal plan to succeed has to control increases in health care spending, make Social Security solvent, and include "comprehensive and pro-growth tax reform, which broadens the base, lowers rates, raises revenues and reduces the deficit." This is the first time a large group of business leaders have supported raising taxes as part of an overall solution. This puts together elements of the Bowles-Simpson plan, reduces deductions and loopholes, lowers rates as part of overall tax reform and cutting spending. The CEO statement says the Simpson Bowles recommendations for $3 in spending cuts for every $1 in tax increases was an "effective framework" for tackling a problem that affects the economic well being and security of the U.S....

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Mexico is close to becoming the U.S.'s largest trading partner. Trade increased by 17% between Mexico and the U.S. to $461 billion in 2011, compared to $502 billion in trade between the U.S. and China.

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Gen. Chen Bingde, People's Liberation Army chief of general staff, leads a military delegation from China to the U.S. He made a speech at National Defense University in Washington D.C. in May 2011. In that speech he pointed out that China's military capabilities remain far behind the U.S. capabilities, which he described as "a gaping gap." He described China's military modernization as having "unfortunately aroused unfounded suspicion and exaggeration of China's defense and military capabilities." With the overstatement of the threat posed by China only "distorting China's strategic intention, tarnishing its international image, and polluting the political environment for Sino-U.S. military relations." In other remarks he said China "does not want to use our money to buy equipment or advanced weapons to challenge the United States." The meeting between Admiral Mullen and Gen. Bingde was the first in seven years between military chiefs of the two countries.

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Having an adequate supply of N95 masks is critical for each hospital tackling the coronavirus pandemic. The lack of enough masks leaves health care personnel without the basic protection and is a grave emergency. Hospitals are resorting to reuse of the masks in this crisis and this is not a good practice as it increases the chances of infection. President Trump has invoked the Defense Production Act on April 2 against 3M. This gives the federal government more control over 3M's operations to ensure that it goes all out to make the healthcare N95 masks that the hospitals need in this grave emergency. This report in the WSJ covers the situation as of April 3 on the supply of M95 masks for health workers and others. N95 masks block 95% of very small particles. Supply in the U.S. is for 50 million N95 masks. Demand in the U.S. is for 300 million N95 masks as estimated by the Department of Health and Human Services. in March- this is how many are needed by health care workers to fight this pandemic in the U.S. The principal manufacturer is 3M. 3M company has doubled its production since January 2020. The trend before this pandemic was to send production over to China and other countries. This is changing now with the pandemic and the U.S. policy shifting to be self sufficient in medical supplies in the event of an emergency. A policy Peter Navarro, who heads the agency in charge of getting medical supplies, says President Trump is insisting be implemented. Hospital buyers supported the earlier trend to keep costs down, but this appears to be a costly mistake, putting health care workers in hospitals across the U.S. without the basic protection they need. Minnesota based 3M invented the first modern disposable masks in the 1960's. Interestingly 3M continued to make millions of masks in the U.S. even though competitors moved manufacturing overseas. The 50 million disposable masks 3M made globally went to workers in industries where it provided extra safety from metal shavings or other substances, and medical workers. Now 90% of masks go to medical workers. 3M ramped up production globally since January 11 when the pandemic first hit to 100 million masks a month globally, and 35 million a month in the U.S. at plants in South Dakota and Nebraska. 3M says that it will import 10 million masks from its factory in China, which earlier this year was restricted from shipping it outside China as China needed masks for the pandemic. About 10 million more masks are made by two other manufacturers Alpha Pro and Louis Gerson Co.  U.S. Department of Health and Human Services ordered 600 million N95 masks from 5 companies to distribute to hospitals and build up the national medical supply stockpile. 190 million each of this is from 3M and Honeywell and 130 million Owens & Minor Inc.  3M says it will make 50 million a month in the U.S. by June. Honeywell which had moved production overseas, plans to bring back production to the U.S. by making 10 million masks by May at its Rhode Island and Phoenix plants. There is a company in Singapore that makes one million masks a day in China and other Asian countries, Pasture Pharma Pte, but most of it is committed to government agencies in China.   ...

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The U.S. Federal Reserve Flow of Funds report for 2011 shows Fed purchases of 61% of total net Treasury issuance. Goodman points out that the net issuance of Treasury securities for covering U.S. budget deficits is normally 0.6% to 3.9% of GDP on average for the last six decades since 1950, compared to on average 8.6% of GDP today. A big jump in Fed purchases with a corresponding steep fall in the participation of foreigners and the private sector. Foreign purchases declined from 6% of GDP in 2009 to 1.9% of GDP in 2011. U.S. private sector- mutual funds, banks, corporations and individuals- purchases declined from 6% of GDP in 2009 to 0.9% of GDP in 2011. This helps keep interest rates low and funds U.S. government needs. Lawrence Lindsay pointed out in the WSJ in 2011 that Fed has itself boxed in being forced to keep interest rates low for years. If the government borrowed at a more normal rate of 5.7%, instead of the Fed induced rate of 2.5% today, Lindsay estimated the U.S. government would face an additional $800 billion in interest costs by 2021....

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US closes a border road in 2026 between Alberta and Montana that is used for illegal migration and drug smuggling.

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Britain to lead coalition efforts in Strait of Hormuz- in the 1950's this part of the world was still part of the British Empire. Britain was the dominant power in Iran in 1900 and was also dominant in Turkey for a period after the First War in 1918 in Turkey. With the collapse of the Ottoman Empire Britain and France assumed a stewardship role over what is now Israel, Iraq, Syria. Only after the rise of Ataturk in Turkey in the 1930's were there independence movements and anti-monarchial movements in the region. Ataturk was an avowed modernizer who Europeanized Turkey, that was not so with the anti-monarchial movements in Iraq, Syria, which led to a great deal of unheavals and the wars we know today as Iraq war, Afghan war, Iran war. In Iraq and Syria it was a form of Soviet Communist/ Socialist  style movements that took power, and in Iran it came in the form of a religious movement based on Shia Islam that by the 1990's clashed with the socialist movements in Iraq and Syria. Syria and Iraq disintegrated costing the US dearly in resources and men, and the Afghan wars hurt both the Soviets (Russia) and the US. The Iran war may be the last of these wars as the US and Europe, and Russian Europe, China, India and Japan, close this chapter in their interactions to a region that is impervious to the kind of modernization that started in 17th century Europe with the Renaissance, in 18th and 19th century Europe with the Scientific Revolution, and in 20th century Europe with the Industrial Revolution, that was fervently desired in Russia, Japan, China and India as these ideas spread over western and southern Asia like wild fire and were adopted as emancipating and with a sense of wonder by the Asian people as their own.  The world may soon decide it can do without Hormuz. China Japan, and India can secure alternative supplies of oil from US and Russia, and ramp up their production of renewable energy to make Hormuz redundant by 2030 and- history. Germany already has shown the way - getting only 6% of imports of energy from that region. ...

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Eurozone data shows the GDP growth far outpaced the U.S.. In the first quarter GDP growth was 0.5% from the prior year, the annualized rate at 1.8% compared to 0.7% for the U.S.. European stocks are benefiting from the recovery in the eurozone. A global recovery in inflation is also helping, with political risk fading. Recovery is also taking place in parts of southern Europe, with 3% growth in Spain.

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Declining agricultural exports and lower prices are expected to lead to U.S. net farm income dropping by 38% to $55.9 billion in 2015, according to the USDA. Importers such as Egypt and Japan can buy wheat in export markets at lower prices from France, Russia and other countries- U.S wheat going at $205 a ton, French wheat at $193 per ton, and Russian wheat at $194, according to grain analysts. Depreciating currencies in Russia and Eastern Europe mean sellers can sell in dollars and convert to local currencies.

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Fearing instability within their own kingdom Saudis take a cautious view of the protests in Iran. UAE take a different view and supports the US. 

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By taking action in Venezuela in a way that benefits the Venezuelan people (and similar action in the long run interests of the Iranian people to dedicate most of the resources for development and increase share of oil revenues without discounting and removing sanctions ill effects on economy and quality of life) major new changes can improve quality of life in the world.  Venezuelan production which was 3 million barrels a day has declined to 900,000 without US investment and technological upgrades. With US investment this can be increased to put additional oil supplies on the market lost in the war with Iran and smaller traffic through the Straits of Hormuz. Venezuelan crude is best suited to US refineries which frees up shale oil for export to meet needs of India and Europe. China which had hyper growth through massive oil consumption would reduce its growth rate and its impact on climate change as it adjusts to the loss of 3 million barrels a day it no longer gets from Iran. Slower growth rate in China is good for the climate as it is the hyper growth of China that put the most pressure on climate even as Europe and the US had cut  fossil fuels consumption over the last decade. China made 2 coal plants a week and 95% of all new global coal construction in 2023. India needs additional oil supplies as it increases its growth rate from a much lower point of development (and electricity poverty) than China. By simply settling for normal development compared to hyper development targets( China has reached a point of Oil Fairness Percentage where each country gets to use the same percentage of oil as its population is as a percentage of world population- the number being about 17% for China for both, with the number being 18% for India and it having a shortfall of 12% based on its oil consumption being only 6% of the world total). China can reduce oil and coal consumption reducing pressure on oil prices and absorbing most of the impact from the loss of Iranian oil. China and Russia + (old Soviet territory) Canada, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, make up about 40% of the world's territorial landmass, would be large beneficiaries with improved climatic conditions from burning less coal. They are now highly developed countries and do not need hyper growth which requires China to build 2 coal plants a week and consume excessive amounts of crude oil and coal based on artificially set targets that make no sense by destroying the climate when no child in China lacks electricity to read. Marathon Philipps Valero with over half a million barrels of refining capacity for heavy Venezuelan crude can now put this to use using the imports by US of lower priced (by $9 to Brent crude) Venezuelan crude oil. In a few months of 2025 US has imported 280,000 barrels a day of Venezuelan crude in February 2026 alone some of it going to the large Valero refinery in Port Arthur, Texas. American oil refiners make larger margins using the Venezuelan crude than they make on light crude from shale oil producers in the US. What this does is to increase the supply of crude and refined oil products on the market as the light crude get shipped overseas to India and Europe- including countries like Spain which took in 100,000 barrels a day of shale crude from US in February 2026. ...

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Robert Doll, equity strategist for Black Rock, the world's largest money manager, says the growing population of the U.S. will drive economic growth in the next decade compared to Japan and Europe. He says that over the next two decades the U.S. work force will grow by 11%, Europe's will decline by 5%, and Japan's will decline by 17%. China's population growth will be only slightly more than that of the U.S. during that period and Doll expects China's growth to slow. He sees America as the best bet in a bad neighborhood. Higher immigration in the U.S. is a huge positive, as he points out economic growth is simply the product of the change in the size of the work force multiplied by its productivity. And America's productivity is good enough compared to other nations, is how Doll sees it. In 1995 the U.S. produced 25% of the world's goods and services, it was still 25% in 2010 says Doll. Other economists have pointed to this and observed a similiar pattern for most of the twentieth century. Doll sees this pattern continuing. India's population will show signficant growth and he sees greater opportunity there for long term investing. Doll sees a decoupling between U.S. stock markets and high unemployment. Most of the large U.S. companies generate a large portion of their sales and profits overseas. He estimates 40% of the business of these companies is overseas. Doll's estimate is for 70% of the incremental earnings growth of the S&P 500 companies coming from overseas markets. He also expects higher inflation with the Fed keeping it from getting out of control, and deficit cutting efforts to cut some trillions over the years. He sees favorable prospects for equities based on the money growth being strong and credit markets being good....

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China starts to buy U.S. agricultural products as a way to reduce trade tensions and get back to the bargaining table with the Trump administration. Mr. Trump in turn stated he would postpone till Oct. 15 a tariff increase on $250 billion in imports effective Oct. 1. 

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U.S. exports reached $2.34 trillion in 2014, increasing by $760 billion over the figure in 2009, according to the Commerce Department. Exports accounted for one third of the U.S. economic growth since 2009, say Pritzker and McNerney. Goods and services for exports supported 11.7 million U.S. jobs in 2014, and a Commerce Department 2010 paper shows these jobs pay 18% higher than jobs unrelated to exports. Commerce Department Secretary Pritzker, and McNerney, chairman of the President's Export Council, say free trade agreements and investment by private business is critical to supporting export promotion, but make no mention of the effect of the stronger dollar on future exports. In a period of a few months in 2015 the euro is approaching parity with the dollar and the yen is now 120 to the dollar, giving European and Japanese business a significant advantage, and raising questions about the strength of the U.S. recovery going forward.

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Gordon Brown, former prime minister of Britain from 2007 to 2010, chaired the April 2009 G-20 meeting that came up with ways to tackle the global financial crisis. Brown also led the way by recapitalizing British banks, a step the U.S. followed. He comments on the volatility in financial markets in August 2007 following the S&P credit downgrade of the U.S.. Brown gives an incomplete grade to the tasks the 2009 G-20 set out to accomplish. He points to three goals the G-20 had set in the middle of the financial crisis in April 2009. The first was to prevent a recession from becoming a depression. The other two were to establish a financial stability regime, and a compact for growth. These two became paper promises says Brown. Brown sees the best approach to prevent a lost decade is for U.S. and Europe trading their way out of a downturn as the Asian market absorbs more industrial goods from Europe and the U.S. This includes policies that would keep commodity prices low and ways of coping with currency shocks. Analysts have pointed to an export led recovery as one of the solutions the U.S. was hoping to achieve with a lower value of the dollar. This has had only limited success because of deep structural problems- high consumer indebtedness, bad debt at the banks, weak housing sector following the mortgage crisis, and a rising U.S. deficit- which will take some time to clear. Brown does not come to grips with these underlying imbalances built up during the boom years of the last decade, both in Britain and in the U.S., during which he was the finance minister of Britain....

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Garlic, ginger, turmeric and similar products are vital for healthy living and healthy food. So it is surprising that so little has been done before the Trump tariffs on Chinese food dumped in the U.S. This BBC report by Pamela Parker says 1994 was when the U.S. confirmed dumping by China of garlic yet the tariff that was placed was of an ineffective type that could be circumvented. As a result the U.S. producers such as Vessey in California that produced garlic for 100 years and 5 generations decided to not produce it beside cauliflower and cabbage. Of the surviving producers one producer today in California produces 100 million pounds of this product that has value way beyond the actual dollars as vital for healthy food supplies in the U.S. In fact after reports of contaminated water supplies in China imports of ginger and other such food products have been shifted away from China.  It is well known that the industrial revolution in China came too quickly and at a large cost to the environment after 1990 including contamination of the water, rivers. For this reason it is stunning that the people setting trade policy in Washington could have ignored the vital need of U.S. meeting food needs for healthy living out of its own soil and trusted farming community. To not have done so and let producers of garlic or ginger or other such vital food products to sustain health to go out of business is nothing less than a part of the growing calamity of self inflicted wounds that have happened so far. At no time more compelling an issue as today in the pandemic. The truth is that when it comes to healthy food supplies it is vitally important, as important as national security. And local supplies grown in one's own state or country particularly for vegetables, herbs, and fruit, are very critical. There is no way to even compare product grown locally to product grown in any country where water supplies may be contaminated by rapid industrial growth. ...