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Climate protection goals require rail to get its standards up and modernize quickly in Germany. Deutsche Bahn, the German Rail Network accepts that it needs radical changes. It is important to attract more people to urban transit and rail to promote climate change initiatives and to reduce gas consumption in Germany.  The head of the Deutsche Bahn Richard Lutz says the German Rail has been neglected for years and pushed to its "absolute limit."  Many rail points and signal boxes are obsolete and highly prone to failure.  About 51,000 passenger and goods trains travel through Germany every day going up to 59,000 in 2030.  Lutz says it cannot stay this way- "Increasing demand, combined with aging infrastructure and construction work, is leading to traffic jams and delays with a massive impact on all customers." More than this there is the the question how do you attract more people to not drive but take the train to save gas consumption and reduce the impact on the environment when things are so bad in the rail network? The dilemma says Lutz is "how to grow and modernize at the same time?" Under Lutz and Transport ministry plans high performance corridors are to receive a first class quality standard. More customer friendly construction should be used. And planned construction done in such a way that some sections are construction free sites for several years. Heavily used sections make up 10% of the network or 3500 kilometres and operate at 125% of capacity. By 2030 these sections will be 9000 kilometres or triple that now. Climate protection goals require getting rail up to speed.  ...

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The economic crisis in Turkey in 2022 wiped out half of the value of the lira. Inflation surged. The war in Ukraine hurt Turkey as it is dependent on Ukraine for grain supplies. The surge in fuel prices and the weaker currency meant higher inflation and more of its scarce foreign reserves going to imports of oil and gas. Net foreign reserves dropped to $6 billion in July, coming back up to $26 billion by December 2022.  President Erdogan maintained close relations with Russia to have access to  Russian oil and gas. Turkey has increased exports to Russia by 45% including clothing, household appliances and electronics. Russia is considering postponement of $20 billion owed for natural gas imports. And Russia transferred $5 billion to Turkey in July for a nuclear plant, with $10 billion expected later on. This helps cover the more than $100 billion the Turkish central bank used in 2022 to support the currency Lira. Erdogan's foreign policy has been to act as an intermediary in a UN negotiation for opening the Black Sea shipments of grain from Ukraine and fertilizer exports from Russia. This helps Arab countries in North Africa including Egypt which depend on Ukraine for vital grain supplies.  Everything Erdogan does says a former foreign minister is designed to push up his poll ratings which have risen about 5 percentage points from a low of about 39% in January of 2022 to about 44%. Inflation at 57% in Jan 2023 is still hurting ordinary people in Turkey and the outcome of the May 2023 election after 20 years of Erdogan in power is uncertain.  ...

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Banks in the US are moving away from cryptocurrency and shunning connections with the cryptocurrency business after a regulatory crackdown by the SEC and public warnings about its future. Banks are reevaluating exposure to the crypto sector no matter how small, says this WSJ report. In early 2020 the regulatory agencies were not vigilant enough about this sector which is now seen as highly risky and not for the private sector- digital currencies being the province of central banks just like the US dollar which is issued with the backing of the US government. The Federal Reserve website says about CBDC, Central Bank Digital Currency in highlighted language.- "Like existing forms of money the CBDC would enable the general public to make digital payments. As a liability of the Federal Reserve, a CBDC would be the safest digital asset available to the general public, with no associated credit or liquidity risk." It is because the US Congress failed to act and a prevailing culture of laissez faire, failure of regulatory agencies to act quickly that allows this to happen, that the private sector was allowed to dabble in what is clearly the province of central banks. Laissez faire is originally a French word meaning "allow to do" which has been taken to extremes such as letting private sector issue digital currencies in the prevailing culture. The Fed's Lael Brainard, Jay Powell, Treasury's Janet Yellen did not come out saying what the Fed's website now says and highlights that the only safe digital asset is the central bank's digital currency. Compare this with the caution taken from the beginning about crypto sector by India's finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman and the head of the central bank of India the RBI Mr. Shantikanta Das. ...

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WSJ talks to Adam Grant, Prof. of Organizational Psychology at Wharton School of Business, on the importance of experimenting with different ideas. For every decision A and implementing it one forgets that there were other decisions that could have been made B, C, D or E, and each one offered new ways to experiment and try out new ideas. Grant is author of the book-" Think Again - The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know." Here he talks about how some CEO's used the pandemic (a problem) as an opportunity to experiment with new ideas on work to create productive happier workplaces. Others were too afraid to experiment. Grant says research data shows people are more likely to stay in a hybrid structure, because it gives them flexibility. From the productive workplace perspective this means people have to develop new skills and new muscle in a kind of experiment. This is what he says many CEO's are fearful to try out, now that they are reverting to the old workplace in the office-to what they know.  His biggest fear is that the experimentation that covid brought to us will stop. He sees four days of focused work a week or six hours of concentration in work a day, as way better than 8 hours of distracted work or five unmotivated days. Not just personal bonds are necessary says Grant, clear roles and goals are needed. And people need to be excited about what they are doing, which is possible he has found when they know the work has meaning for people who they are serving. ...

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Shehbaz Sharif 70,  is the younger brother of a three term prime minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif. He ran Punjab province, the country's largest state when his brother was prime minister. In this way he brings substantial experience to the problems of the economy that now face many developing economies such as Pakistan.  First on the agenda is to normalize relations with the US, rebuild ties with India, and restart negotiations with the International Monetary Fund. Pakistan faces severe inflation of 14% and devaluing currency that makes imports costlier as the foreign currency reserves have dropped to alarming levels of $24 billion when annual import needs are at about $56 billion. This has a direct impact on cost of living, standards of living and on industry. Shehbaz Sharif understands the situation and has said restoring the economy "will take effort, effort and more effort." A similar statement has been made by Mr. Modi in Hindi "sab ka viokas, sab ka prayas" which also mean effort, effort and more effort, which all of South Asia and Bay of Bengal, and South East Asian countries needs considering the impact of Covid pandemic, and now inflation from the war in Europe hitting food supplies. The situation is grim in other parts of South Asia- in Myanmar, in Sri Lanka, in Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia. The popular sentiment is also shifting as seen in the Indian part of the old British Punjab province. Mostly Sikh this part of old Punjab state in India made a complete change bringing in a new party Aadmi to improve the economy and provide good governance. In this situation all governments are expected to deliver on good governance and the economy.   ...

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Food inflation is affecting a wide range of countries not just poor countries. Even in the US where on average only 7% of the income of households goes to food, for poor and lower income households this can go up to over 30%. In Turkey with a high inflation rate of 80% in June over prior year, the problems of food inflation are severe. Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia and other Arab countries get most of their wheat from Ukraine and Russia through Black Sea ports. Across Asia the situation varies with less food inflation in countries that are self sufficient in food production such as China, India and Vietnam, to countries such as Sri Lanka where inflation is severe and takes up most of the budget for ordinary families. Lebanon is an extreme example with the collapse of its economy and 332% inflation with food inflation severe. Ethiopians spend about 45% of income on food. Somalia faces drought conditions and severe food shortages. This part of Africa is the most fragile and most prone to breakdown. Being self sufficient in food was an important goal for countries that faced famine in the past such as China and India- this has produced good results. Even in Europe small countries that make their own food with agriculture getting importance such as France and Switzerland the benefits are immense. Switzerland food inflation is as low as 1.5% lowest in the world. Where as in Africa this importance of agriculture has been neglected the consequences are seen today. In Latin America Argentina and Brazil are exporters of soyabeans and other food. This helps insulate them from the worst effects of the food crisis.     ...

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What is behind the anti-vaccine movement in the US? This NYT report looks at some of its unlikely origins- the anti-vaccine efforts of Robert Kennedy's son, Robert Kennedy Jr.. Mr. Kennedy is planning to run against Mr. Biden for the White House. Kennedy's opposition to vaccine's is traced back to his getting involved in cases as an environmental lawyer. Parents who had intellectually disabled children from other chemicals asked Kennedy to look into vaccines. Around 2010 Thimerosal, a mercury based preservative which been used for many years to prevent bacteria from growing in multiple dose vials of vaccine, was suspected to cause autism.  Already by 1999 the American Academy of Pediatrics, federal health agencies and pharmaceutical manufacturers agreed that thimerosal should be removed from childhood vaccines.  Yet it is still used, says this report.  This led to Mr. Kennedy's getting into vaccines in general by the time of the pandemic. He had a book out that was critical of Dr. Faucci, during the pandemic. Mr. Kennedy cautioned about the unintended effects of vaccines. He has another book out called the Wuhan Coverup that looks into the origins of the coronavirus. It refers to research conducted at the Wuhan Institute of Virology that was funded by the US. Mr. Kennedy believes that more transparency is needed on decisions made in the health care sector, and that critical views need to be aired for the public to be able to decide the right course of action. Vaccination is generally supported by people in America though there is a subsection of people who have concerns about side effects. On issues outside of vaccination there is a sense that America's health sector needs more transparency.     ...

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The Russian economy will contract by 10% and the Ukraine economy by 20% in 2022, says the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The bank was setup to revive Eastern European economies after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 2023 the Ukraine economy is expected to rebound by 23% with assistance from US and EU. The Russian economy faces long term challenges with lack of access to technology from EU and US and the loss of well educated workers leaving Russia, and is expected to face a long period of stagnation. The war has affected 60% of Ukraine's economic output and electricity consumption is down by 60%, with one third of Ukraine businesses closed, factories shutdown. Ukraine will be a much poorer country because a lot of stock has been destroyed, says Beata Javorcik, EBRD's chief economist. For Russia the drag on the economy will be present even if a peace agreement leads to lifting of sanctions says EBRD. Central Asian countries such as Uzbekistan and Armenia will also feel the effect of the slowdown with loss of remittance from workers in Russia. The faster shift to renewable energy and LNG in Germany, and a similar boost to renewable energy with COP26 Glasgow getting a boost in EU and the US, will result in loss of value of oil assets in Russia. With loss of technology access from US and EU Russian conversion away from a energy based economy will be slowed. All this is likely to lead to a difficult period for Russia. This means there are no gainers from this war, including China, which could see a further acceleration in US and EU restructuring of the supply chain away from China, leading to further slowing of growth. ...

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This in depth report in The Times reveals that after Brexit talks between Lord Frost and Michael Barnier were getting nowhere on December 3 and the EU had increased its demands, Boris Johnson came up with the idea of a direct call between Johnson and Macron of France and Merkel of Germany, with the EU Commission president Leyen present. This was rejected after Macron spoke to Merkel and both decided they should stay united in their demands that Britain agree not to relax environmental or other rules to gain unfair competitive advantage after leaving the EU. The decision by France and Germany not to talk directly with Britain had been made. Leyen at the EU headquarters in Brussels was to convey the decision. Leyen offered to meet Johnson for a dinner discussion in Brussels. Johnson hesitated. He finally accepted knowing that this would show he had done everything possible and would have the support of all his ministers including ones that supported Remaining in the EU. The whole world thought that the EU was making a genuine last effort to get agreement, but this was not the case. During the dinner meeting Leyen just listened and listened, not saying much, as the EU strategy was to convey to the British that it was serious and not going to budge. This is where the situation is today on December 12, 2020. Cabinet ministers say the chances of any agreement before December 31, 2020, the date Britain leaves are just 30%, some even say 20%. Both sides are ratcheting up the pressure. The British have taken steps to increase patrol ships to 4 and the total fleet to 8 ships to patrol its Economic Zone in British waters looking for EU, mostly French fishermen. Britain would keep the French from fishing in its waters.   ...

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Greg Ip says all the data show the economy is much stronger with low unemployment and inflation coming down, yet for the nation people are not so upbeat, and for their own state really upbeat. He attributes it to the general mood of uncertainty of people, and the negativity with which the media presents news. Some clues to what they actually believe can be seen below the superficial look at the data. For instance as people surveyed say they feel the economy is much worse today by a significant margin for the whole nation they say just the opposite for their own state by an equally significant margin. Listen to this- the WSJ poll Greg Ip cites shows US economy is getting worse or better in the graph. For the US it shows 31% think it is getting worse. The opposite for Arizona 30% and Pennsylvania 25% think it is getting better. In other states people say it is about 18% better- the states are Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada. This suggests that the surveys have to be looked at from the perspective of their own state which reflect the data which clearly shows a big improvement. Greg Ip says the WSJ has seen this in another place, when people are about Congress they say its looking worse, when asked about their own state Congressman they say just the opposite and quite favorable. It is something that is important to bear in mind in 2024 and for the future, the American people are still rational and science based in their thinking, as they have been throughout the nation's history pioneering in the Industrial Revolution. ...

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What does fast growth in the world's fastest growing economy, that is a key part of America's and the European Union's and Japan's supply chain look like. It is based on people inclusive development called Sab Ka Vikas Sab ke Saath, Gandhiji's idea of the last person in the line ever present and watchful of the task at hand. This Powerpoint of the blueprint of the Indian Budget  for 2024-25 from Nirmala Sitharaman and the Finance Ministry shows a visual of what the growth looks like for the farm, industrial, housing, health, education and other sectors of the economy. It is a journey just beginning under Vikshit Bharat with a target date of the 100th  anniversary of independence 2047. Here one can see the target of increasing capital expenditures for infrastructure and various development schemes by 11.1%. GST (one tax one country) tax revenues are expected to increase by around 12% which support this budget. Strengthening financial sector to bring investment back on track after the pandemic is one of the support pillars, so is deepening and widening tax base through the GST a uniform federal tax for the whole country. Another pillar is proactive inflation management- the story of how India tackled the cost of energy by accessing from different suppliers at the best price is told this week in Feb 2024 in the WSJ. Foreign Minister Jaishankar told the Munich Security Conference with Blinken and Baerbock in the panel that India with 1.4 billion people's future at stake should be seen as done the right thing, the smart thing. Inflation has been kept at about 5%, and key economic growth projected at 7-8% over the next decade with goal of becoming the third largest economy in the world. ...

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Much of the cost of the Common Prosperity campaign of president Xi to increase access to healthcare, education and housing will fall on heavily indebted local governments in China, says WSJ. Today in 2022 these three education, healthcare and housing are moving beyond reach of ordinary Chinese because of rising costs and referred to as the "three big mountains." In education and housing the government has moved to improve access. Today parents like Ding Jianxiong in Beijing can give their children two extra hours of classes in school for not cost. It saves money and time compared to tutoring classes that the government is discouraging. Teachers have to work longer hours for this to happen and the cost is borne by local governments. Governments at provincial, municipal and county level finance 80%, 70%, and 60% of China's fiscal expenditures on education, healthcare and housing projects. Data from China's Finance Ministry shows local governments have built up $4 trillion in debt at end of 2020, up 20% from a year earlier, much of it to finance infrastructure projects in the last 20 years. This experts say is an underestimate with additional debt buried and camouflaged in financing vehicles, other forms of debt. In 2020 the central government restricted sales of land that were creating an overinflated housing market and driving cost of housing ever higher, depriving local governments of a principal source of revenues. Land sales are now down about 15% and falling. Experts say a new property tax could only bring in one fifth of what was derived through land sales by local governments. The result is a fundamental mismatch today between revenues and costs for local governments that has not been addressed. ...

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At its core what Peter Baker of the NYT calls a question that settles the future of American democracy-Mr. Trump's indictment for efforts to reverse 2020 election result- is a question of culture, of American culture and education having deteriorated in profound and unthinkable ways. Peter Baker who has covered 5 American presidents writes in the NYT that the fourth indictment gets to the heart of the matter, which will define the future of American democracy. This indictment asks whether a sitting president can spread lies to hold on to power when the election shows voters have rejected him. The indictment says that Mr. Trump "knew that his claims were false," yet he "made them anyway to create an intense national atmosphere of mistrust and anger and erode public faith in the administration of the election."  Baker also points out that one third of the electorate still believes this to be true as a result of the claims Trump made. And 75% of the Republicans in NYT-Siena poll think Mr. Trump was simply acting in good faith to question election results in some states and it was nothing more than pursuing his legitimate legal options. This is about 40% of the American electorate. How is this possible unless the education and culture of the country has been allowed by successive failed administrations to deteriorate to an extent never before seen in this way since the country's independence in 1776. Even recent reports that two thirds of America's fourth graders fail basic reading comprehension tests have not jolted the nation out of its tech based glorification of a failing culture and education. ...

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Paul Ryan, speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, wins the Republican primary in his house seat of Janesville, Wisconsin, defeating his challenger Nehlen, by 84% to 16%. The Republican nominee Donald Trump earlier had refused to endorse Ryan, and only reluctantly endorsed Ryan following the vice presidential nominee Mike Spence's endorsement of Ryan. Senator Susan Collins, senior Republican senator from Maine, joined other leading Republicans saying she would not support Trump. Paul Ryan has split with Trump on trade, immigration, Mexico, and other issues. He has insisted on decency and fairness in politics, and has won his seat in a working class town that had a closed GM plant in 2008 after Ryan voted to support rescue of the auto industry and worked hard to keep it open. Even though some of his policies have not directly helped working class families, he has won increasing support from his district as the economy recovered with unemployment down to 4.4% in Janesville, according to BLS for May 2016. Much of that support since 1998 has been based on Ryan's decency, faith and family. He made it a condition that he would go back on weekends to Wisconsin to stay in touch with people, when he accepted the position of Speaker of the House, and he listens to local concerns. Ryan said about the national discourse- "It's simple to prey on people's fears. That stuff sells, but it doesn't stick. It doesn't last. Most of all, it doesn't work." His job in today's deteriorated national discourse is as vital as ever, both for Wisconsin as representing the best in the national spirit, and for the country.   ...

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The issues were the same on Oct 31, 1936 when FDR gave this address at Madison Square Garden, similar to what president Biden faces today in the task "to win in this crusade to restore America to its own people."  FDR said: "On the eve of a national election, it is well for us to stop for a moment and analyze calmly and without prejudice the effect on our Nation of a victory by either of the major political parties.The problem of the electorate is far deeper, far more vital than the continuance in the Presidency of any individual. For the greater issue goes beyond units of humanity—it goes to humanity itself. In 1932 the issue was the restoration of American democracy; and the American people were in a mood to win. They did win. In 1936 the issue is the preservation of their victory. Again they are in a mood to win. Again they will win. More than four years ago in accepting the Democratic nomination in Chicago, I said: "Give me your help not to win votes alone, but to win in this crusade to restore America to its own people." The banners of that crusade still fly in the van of a Nation that is on the march. It is needless to repeat the details of the program which this Administration has been hammering out on the anvils of experience. No amount of misrepresentation or statistical contortion can conceal or blur or smear that record. Neither the attacks of unscrupulous enemies nor the exaggerations of over-zealous friends will serve to mislead the American people." ...

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Biden cited Benjamin Franklin's response to the question "What have we got a Republic or a Monarchy?" to which Franklin replied "A Republic, if you can keep it."  Under portraits of Thomas Jefferson, Geroge Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt in the White House Oval Office, Biden said: “I revere this office but I love my country more,” he said. “It’s been the honour of my life to serve as your president. But in the defence of democracy, which is at stake, I think it’s more important than any title.” "I believe my record as president, my leadership in the world, my vision for America’s future, all merited a second term,” he said. “But nothing, nothing can come in the way of saving our democracy. That includes personal ambition.” I’ve decided the best way forward is to pass the torch to a new generation. It’s the best way to unite our nation. I know there was a time and a place for long years of experience in public life. There’s also a time and a place for new voices, fresh voices, yes, younger voices. And that time and place is now.” “The great thing about America is, here kings and dictators do not rule – the people do,” Biden concluded. “History is in your hands. The power’s in your hands. The idea of America lies in your hands. You just have to keep faith – keep the faith – and remember who we are.” ...

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The 47 seconds of a UC Davis Law School debate for the election of Attorney General California. The year 2010, Kamala Harris 45 years old had endorsed Obama early in 2008, was becoming well known in the California Democratic party. The debate was with Steve Cooley, a popular Republican District Attorney elected in 2000. Cooley was looking into outlandish salaries for public officials in the City of Bell. The issue of double dipping had been raised in the primary by Cooley's opponent Eastman. Jack Leonard on of three panelists said he would ask the question about double dipping to Cooley, about Cooley taking his taxpayer paid pension to add to his salary as AG of $150,000, that would get him to make $400,000. "Do you plan to double-dip by taking both a pension and your salary as attorney general?” Mr. Leonard asked. “Yes, I do,” Mr. Cooley said outright Leonard glanced at Ms. Harris. She said nothing.    “I earned it.” But Mr. Cooley was not yet done. “I definitely earned whatever pension rights I have, and I will certainly rely upon that to supplement the very low, incredibly low salary that’s paid to the attorney general,” said Cooley. Everyone felt a moment of silence and amazement. And then Harris said "Go for it Steve. You earned it." Harris campaign was about broke with only $750,000 left, just enough to run one ad spot for only 1  week. And Kamala Harris had the courage to do just that. At that moment the campaign was won, a last minute counter ad did not register as Meg Whitman the governor candidate for Republicans  was seeing her campaign go off the rails. ...

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The sense that one gets from the confirmation hearings for Pam Bondi is that after Matt Gaetz pulled out, Pam Bondi with her relaxed and thoughtful manner, her experience as Attorney General of Florida, is a decent choice. Most Senators felt she had the votes for confirmation. She brings the same skills for Republicans as Susan Wiles, DJT's chief of staff- she brings a calm demeanor to balance DJT's penchant for speaking in a blunt manner.  Pam Bondi confirmed that if nominated as head of FBI Kash Patel would report to her. Chris Coon accidentally calls her "Attorney General," and says he looks forward with working with her. Coons is the Senator from Delaware that was closest to president Biden.  Senators questioned Pam Bondi, a former Attorney General of Florida who has done work for companies seeking to work with DJT, and defended DJT in the first impeachment hearing, at her confirmation hearing in the US Senate. The back and forth exchanges happened with Democrats Adam Schiff and Hirano. With Padilla Pam Bondi was not given the opportunity to respond as he insisted on a yes or no answer. Democrats Schiff wanted to know whether she would investigate Lynn Cheney or Jack Smith. Bondi said she had not seen the file and it would e improper for to say anything without studying the matter, and that she did not want to drag politics into the work at the Justice Department as had been the situation before. Hirano asked if president Biden won the 2020 election. Pam Bondi responded that "Joe Biden is the president of the US."   ...

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This WSJ report by Collins, Belkin, Parti and Whyte takes an indepth look at the issues surrounding anti-semitism on US campuses, in particular UC Berkeley, U Penn, Harvard, Columbia universities. It looks at what happened in the first term and how with the Gaza war the issues of antisemitism on US campuses increased and the DJT administration, Education Secretary McMahon, Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon, and domestic advisers in the Trump administration, decided it was time to rein in the antisemitism seen at top ranked universities.  On the campus of UC Berkeley in Feb 2019, Hayden Williams was a young conservative activist who set up a table to recruit students to Turning Point USA. He was punched in the face in an argument which attracted media attention. DJT said at the time that "we got to do something about this." In meetings with Hayden Trump discussed actions such as cutting off federal funding to universities with free speech violations. This is the genesis of the current action says WSJ where Harvard faces cut offs of funding for lack of action to control antisemitism on campus and the president asking Harvard to stop enrollment of international students. Some international students have been involved in the activism tending towards antisemitism.  There is also the sense that some universities are admitting far too many, as many as 40% of the enrolment, from overseas students- a form of neglect of local American students, who now have less access to the resources that the federal government is giving to these universities which they should be entitled to as Americans. U Chicago, Harvard and Penn are in the 30%+ range for overseas students and Columbia around 40%. ...

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HP's long overdue overhaul of its antiquated and cumbersome internal systems and processes. Older Oracle software has been replaced with better software from Salesforce and Workday which uses cloud computing. Long delays hurt customer satisfaction and hurt sales. This was a priority for CEO Meg Whitman. Whitman hired a IT head at customers Verizon and Boeing to manage the change, as he knew the problems up close.

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Levinson and Genentech were taken completely bysurprise by Roche's move to takeover Genentech. A special committee of 3 members of its Board will review the Roche proposal, which says Charles Sanders, a former Chairman and CEO of Glaxo in the 1990's and chairman of this special committee, was "both unsolicited and unexpected." This shows the surprise that this must have been for Levinson.

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About $2 billion estimated by the Nigerian government is the amount stolen by military ruler Abacha from the central bank between 1993-1998. The Swiss government agreed to return $458 million of this to Nigeria in September 2006. Desperately needed development funds have long been diverted from the oil wealth of Nigeria into private accounts. Note the present government has made some progress in the area of fighting corruption. Also note that much more needs to be done for development in places where oil is produced like the Niger delta, and these problems have resulted in the shutdown of oil production in the area, affecting world oil prices.

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Was the sacrifice of Lehman Brothers the price that Paulson had to pay to get Congress to stop stalling and get serious about action on the $700 billion bailout. Nocera looks at the picture and accounts of the crisis from the perspective of different players and comes to this conclusion. Experts like John Makin at the American Enterprise Institute say that had Lehman not failed some other institutional failure would have ocurred, and that that its likely the financial crisis would have been worse in the absence of this failure. A crisis atmosphere alone would force banks to reduce leverage and for Congress and the government to conduct an orderly rescue.

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The U.S. Labor Department reports that 4.4 million unemployed workers in the U.S. were out of work for more than one year. For the U.S. this is 30% of all unemployed. In some of the largest states about one in three unemployed workers have been out of work for more than one year. For New Jersey which has a 9.4% unemployment rate compared to 9.6% nationally, 37.1% were out of work for more than one year. Older Americans, the highly educated workers, are more likely to have longer stretches of unemployment. This is the situation in New Jersey and Florida where there is a larger population of older workers.

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Business investment has been extremely weak since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. This covers spending on investment goods - on equipment, software, inventory accumulation, residential and nonresidential construction. Compared to the 1982 recession non residential fixed investment has staged a weak recovery. In the 2 years after the 1982 recession nonresidential fixed investment went up by 27%, whereas in the last 2 years it is up only 12%. Spending on business equipment and software declined twice as much in this recession as in the recession of 1982, according to Mankiw. The comparison with 1982 is because the U.S. experienced 10% unemployment during that downturn.