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The WSJ's Paul Sonne gives this exceptional account of how Russians are coping in the economic crisis of 2015-2016, with the twin shocks of the collapse in the ruble and the collapse in oil prices. He does this by looking at the Kaluga region, a provincial city 110 miles south of Moscow that has benefitted from large foreign investment to meet the needs of 20 million consumers in the Moscow region. The governor of Kaluga since 2000, Anatoly Artamonov, worked hard to attract foreign investment that includes VW, Volvo AG, Continental AG, Lafarge, Samsung Electronics, General Electric, and other companies. He ran a collective in the Brezhnev era, and now is energetic in meeting needs of foreign investors. Karmanov says it is stupidity to not say he is talking to business people in other parts of the world because of the political climate in the country. About 42% of the industrial output in Kaluga comes from the foreign automobile plants, including VW. The automobile and light commercial vehicle production in Feb. 2015 dropped by about 39% compared to Feb. 2014, according to the Association of European Business estimate. Only 40% of autombile production cost from assembly lines is sourced locally, the rest is imported at the new value of the ruble which has fallen about 50%, leading to higher prices and slumping demand. Ordinary Russians are feeling the effects of the crisis with higher prices. Consumer price inflation in Feb. 2015 was at 16.7%, with 23.3% increase in food prices. High interest rates to prop up the ruble meant cutting off access to credit to finance consumer purchases. An 8% drop in real wages in Jan. 2015, according to Capital Economics, added to pressures on consumers. With the political and economic crisis following Russia's Ukraine intervention foreign investment in 2014 declined to $18.6 billion in 2014 compared to $61.5 billion in 2013, and the EBRD bank cut financing with the sanctions....

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As the Ukraine war enters a new phase in the east UK prime minister Boris Johnson goes to Kviv.

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Danny Hakim's gives this indepth account on the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's connections to the tobacco industry, with reporting from Ukraine, Nepal, the Philippines and other poorer nations struggling with the public health implications of widespread smoking. Since 1997 the Chamber of Commerce, which is viewed in foreign countries as an outpost of the U.S. government, has taken some controversial positions. In the U.S. the chamber has as it members the tech industry leaders such as Google and Microsoft. Yet it is increasingly at odds with these companies. In 2009 the chamber under Mr. Donahue opposed greenhouse gas emissions regulation by the EPA, leading to the departure of Apple from the group and Nike stepping down from the board. In 2013 the American subsidiary of Sweden's construction company Skanska left the group, in protest against the chamber's opposition to green building codes. Michael Bloomberg and Bill Gates have set up an international fund to fight law suits challenging international anti-smoking laws by tobacco companies. The TPP's provision for companies being able to sue foreign governments for violation of trade agreements has no exception for tobacco companies. Similiar concerns are raised about pharmaceutical companies suiing foreign governments where the governments are working to increase access to medicine for poorer sections of the population....

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The Labour leader and prime minister of Britain met Donald Trump during a trip to speak at the UN General Assembly in New York on September 26, 2024 Starmer has misgivings that Trump may withhold support for the United Nations and its framework for maintaining peace in the world, and tackling issues of development and climate change. Britain's leader Starmer told the UN General Assembly- "People talk about an age of polarization, impunity, instability and an unraveling of the U.N. charter. And I feel a sense of fatalism has taken hold.” “But our task is to say no … This is the moment to reassert fundamental principles and our willingness to defend them. To recommit to the U.N., to internationalism, to the rule of law.” With Macron's shaky coalition government in France, and a coalition government in Germany with less popular Greens, FDP and Social Democrats, Russia engaged in a conflict with NATO in Ukraine, Starmer speaks for Europe at an important time to recommit to the UN Charter and uphold the principles of the UN for the betterment of mankind. ...

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Most of the problems in Eastern Europe follow from overborrowing by the privae sector , consumers and corporate borrowing, in foreign currencies. According to David Roche of Independent Strategy, private sector foreign currency debt rose to 126% of foreign exchange reserves between 2002 and 2007. Roche is former head of research and global strategy at Morgan Stanley. As a result he says, 50% of household debt is in foreign currency in Hungary, 30-40% in Poland and Romania, and over 70% in the Baltic states. The debt in lowcost foreign currencies like Swiss Frances, Euros, and even yen, also expanded in the corporate sector. BY mid 2008 non-financial corporate debt in foreign currencies reached over 45% of corporate laibilities in Bulgaria, over 30% in Ukraine and Baltics, and over 20% in Hungary and Russia. To get an idea of the way the foreign subsidiaries of major western european banks expanded their lending, note that lending to homeowners between 2002 and 2007 doubled each year in Romania, rose 60-80% in the Baltics and Bulgaria, rose 20-30% in Poland and Hungary. And lending to corporations grew 20-30% a year. There is aclear suggestio of reckless lending and reckless borrowing in these numbers just as was seen in the way mortgage lending ocurred in the USA. The history of this kind of lending goes back to the reckless lending in Latin America in the eighties that led to lost decades many years before, and is a recurring story. Now Roche sees loss of GDP of 5%-6% for Turkey, Russia, Romania, Czech Republic and Poland, and 8-10% in Hungary, Bulgaria and the Baltic states. That would take 40% of foreign exchange reserves in Turkey,Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Ukraine. And this will have a human cost in jobs lost, crime, poverty, and years of progress lost in these countries. And it will ricochet back to the parent companies of the European banks that did a lot of this lending, with $130 billion additional losses, and a loss of 10% of tier one capital (equity capital plus disclosed reserves) of Western European banks....

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Putin's reaction to the falling ruble with declining oil prices adding to the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy is to blame the Western countries for a "civilizational" conflict against Russia that is centuries old. President Obama speaking about the same time to a Business Roundtable meeting says Putin was taken by surprise during the changes in Ukraine and has improvised his way since then, using Russian nationalism in a way that is taking the country backwards in history. Merkel makes the same point and says the Federal Republic of Germany has taken a new positive direction, learning from past history. This has led to a loss of credibility for Putin as seen at the G-20 meeting in Australia in 2014, as the opening of the Russian economy and the efforts to improve Russia's standard of living in an atmosphere of trust and international cooperation is replaced with distrust and misgivings by these policy improvisations.

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The relationship of former German chancellor Schroeder with Russian president Putin reflects personal experince with the deaths and destruction of the Second World War. Schroeder lost his father in the war. Putin is the only surviving child, born in 1952, of a mother who barely survived the siege of Leningrad from 1941 to 1944 when 641,000 Russians died of starvation in the city. His mother lost one child in the siege.

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 Lincoln's words in 1858 "political matters now bear a very mixed and incongruous aspect" as Douglas tried to be on the side of the free states in the North when he was actually with the South, can be used for what is happening now with DJT and Ukraine, as seen from Europe by European leaders.  Alain Frachon gives the French view in Le Monde. He cites the founder of the French Institute for International Relations Montbrial in his recent book that the problems started with the false hopes and chimeras about the fall of the Berlin Wall. It marked not just the fall of the Soviet Empire in Eastern Europe but also of the Russian Empire. And the fall of an Empire has repercussions that are being felt today. Franchon says the liberal order neglected to see in its naivette that peoples are driven not just by strategic and economic interests alone but by passions, that includes their sense of what they had lost in the Russian role in that past of Europe in history. ...

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This report in WSJ says at an event in Germany in 2022 Merkel said that after annexing Crimea in 2014 Putin told her he wanted to destroy the European Union. Yet Merkel did not hesitate to double gas imports from Russia after 2014. Joachim Gauck, president of Germany when Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014 says Merkel's decision to boost energy imports from Russia after that aggression was surely a mistake. Gauck stated "some people recognize their mistakes earlier, some later. Her decisions for over concentration of Germany's manufacturing in China led to a similar situation with China that is only now beginning to unravel. The two decisions overconcentration of energy dependence on Russia and manufacturing dependence with overconcentration in China have had interwoven effects and shows Merkel did not grasp the implications and dangers of overconcentration or excessive dependence on any one country. Merkel instead doubled gas imports from Russia and had the Nord Stream 2 pipeline built at a time when Germany was already 55% dependent on Russian imports of energy. She moved too quickly to phase out nuclear energy completely after Fukushima accident leading to Russian gas imports rapidly increasing. When leaving office she said LNG which Germany has now used to replace Russian gas from places such as Norway to Qatar under efforts of Deputy chancellor Habeck was a third more costly.  It could be said that with her sheltered upbringing in the more affluent sections of Communist East Germany's, the GDR's, educational sector, Merkel had such limited exposure to the world that when she emerged as Kohl's preferred choice in ministry positions she was headed for the chancellorship without the right qualifications for leadership. When one considers the experience of an Konrad Adenauer or a Willy Brandt through the World War II years, Merkel's experience for the chancellorship not only pales by any comparison, but also shows significant limits of comprehension and sound or right thinking of the issues facing Germany and the world in the twentieth and twenty first century. ...

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The US has offered to take in 100,000 Ukraine refugees. The first refugees entering the US through a multi country trip are shown here in the WSJ.

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Sweden alone has $23.2 billion of loan exposurte for Latvia. Loan exposure for European banks is $42.2 billion for Lithuania, $39.5 billion for Latvia, $35.2 billion for Estonia, and $38.7 billion for Bulgaria. The currencies of the three Baltic republics are pegged to the euro and there value has remained unchanged even as the currencies of Russia, Hungary, Ukraine and the UK have seen substantial devaluations during this crisis. Experts say a devaluation should be undertaken to reduce the pain of wage and benefit cuts for public serive employees. Individuals, homeowners and companies hold over $40 billion of loans that they owe foreign banks, making paymetn more difficult and leading to more loan defaults. Latvia has seen overnight interest rates rise to about 20% and expects GDP to fall 18% this year. Swedish banks say they are prepared for a devaluation and high laon default rates, and the Swedish government has committed to help the Baltic countries in this crisis. See link.

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The U.S. commander in Europe, Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, says Russia respects strength, and the U.S. must add capability in this situation where Russia is no longer a partner with the U.S. and Europe as it appeared to be previously. He sees the U.S. as ready to meet all its commitments and protecting democracy. He also says Twitter is not the best way to communicate policy as president Trump does, and that he receives his instructions through the chain of command.

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A detailed look at how Enel is trying to penetrate the Russian power market. It is investing $6 billion in Russia. Mr. Fulvio Conti, CEO of Eni, has a clear idea how he is going to operate in Russia. He has developed close ties with Gazprom, has Gazprom as a partner in ownership of former Yukos gas assets which supply power plants it is acquiring ownership of (OGK-5's constellation of power plants in western Russia.) Eni uses Gazproms pipeline network to get the gas to its plants. In this way Eni feels it has a winning model to convert gas into electricity with low risk. Eni can then wait for what it expects will be gradual progress towards liberalization of electricity markets in Russia, so that prices will be higher and give Eni good margins. It will also put Eni ahead of German and other European competitors. Russia's electricity market is expected to grow rapidly as its economy grows. It needs $120 billion in investment to build further its electricity infrastructure and foreign investment is needed in this area. Eni has also offered Gazprom reciprocal ownership of power plant assets in Italy in its negotiations, to build a win-win situation....

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Protests in 5 of Turkey's largest cities with mayors from the CHP party, Istanbul, Ankara, Bursa, Izmir following the arrest of Imamoglu, Mayor of Istanbul, just before he was being nominated by his party to run against Erdogan for president of Turkey in 2028. Ekrem Imamoglu was elected mayor of Istanbul in 2019, with 54% of the vote in a recount when Erdogan had been in power for 16 years starting in 2003. Erdogan also started his political career as Mayor of Istanbul. Erdogan became popular following mismanagement of the economy by the administration of the time. He increased growth with foreign investment in his first ten years. His popularity began to wane with tendencies for authoritarian rule. Without a strong candidate from the opposition Erdogan was elected again in 2020 with 52% of the vote. In 2024 Ekrem Imamoglu was relected a second time as Mayor of Istanbul.  In 2025 Turkey is a changed country- with countries around it Ukraine, Russia, Middle East, and the US, very different from the 2000 turn of the century period. CHP party in power in the cities is now in a position to run the country after two decades in the Opposition. As a result there is a shift in mood in the country seeking new leadership and the AKK party of Erdogan now faces a serious challenge from the Opposition CHP and Imamoglu. ...

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This report in The Guardian provides and interactive way of understanding easily what is happening in Ukraine that is affecting the world's grain supplies. The severe impact is in Africa and Arab countries such as Egypt that depend heavily on Ukraine and Russia for wheat imports. Prices are now twice or three times for food supplies that put severe constraint with lack of funds in heavily indebted countries. World Food Programme lacks funds for supplies to Yemen and other countries affected by war or drought conditions. The heat wave has also reduced agricultural production by 5-10% in countries that normally export from Europe such as France.

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Sanger and Broad report on the move by the Trump administration to go ahead with the overhaul of the U.S. nuclear deterrent,  with programs that were started in the Obama administration. With the more aggressive posture of Russia in Europe, the Trump administration is left with little scope for further advances in nuclear arms negotiations. A new technology based cruise missile system is now being built for $25 billion with contracts given to Raytheon and Lockheed Martin. Experts at Harvard's Belfer Center say that with the North Korean nuclear threat these programs to modernize the nuclear deterrent are getting the go ahead with little resistance. Another program modernizing the land based deterrent and replacing the Minuteman missile system is also expected to push forward at a cost of $100 billion. The Pentagon under Obama had pushed for these systems, yet there was discussion about ways to limit these programs in the hope that nuclear arms control talks could take place. The North Korean missile tests and Russia's posture have changed the discussion. By the end of the Obama's second term, a president who came into office in 2008 with hopes of nuclear weapons reduction had already lost much of the momentum he had in 2008. The situation changed with Russian intervention in Ukraine in 2015, and the North Korean long range missile test in 2017, to where the modernization of the nuclear deterrent was quietly accepted, without alternatives through negotiations. ...