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A recent study shows that by 2030, 70% of India's jobs would be created in the cities, and about 590 million people would live in India's cities. This will require urban planning and proper arrangements for housing and commercial space which India's cities sorely lack. Cities in India, from Chennai and Delhi to Mumbai and Bangalore, are way over-stretched, roads are perpetually choked, sewers, water lines and electricity are lacking. And there is no housing for new arrivals from rural areas as this migration to the cities takes place. India's building codes and zoning laws are outdated, and urban planning experts say their are ideas about urban design but very little gets implemented.

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WIth India's oil imports at four fifths of the country's oil needs, the depreciation of the Indian currency, the rupee, is especially painful. The rupee exchange rate has declined from 55 per dollar at the end of May 2013 to 64 per dollar in August 2013, a 14% decline. India provides full subsidies and this accounts for a large part of the current account deficit. Government cuts in fuel subsidies to reduce the current account deficit are diluted by the depreciation of the rupee, with a fall of one rupee in the exchange rate equal to 4 months of cuts in subsidies, according to Moody's analyst Vikas Halan.

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Analysts are predicting problems for Honda's plants in China stemming from wage increases. The wages of 500,000 yen per year for a worker in Honda's Chinese plants are double what is paid for a factory worker in India or 33% higher than in Thailand. For the Guangzhou plant to meet domestic demand it would have to have a 50-50 joint venture with a Chinese company, and this would mean getting government approval. For now that plant will remain an export hub. The entire plant -out of 4 Honda has in China- is committed to exporting the Jazz compact to Europe with production of 50,000 vehicles a year. Honda now owns 65% of the plant.

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Already Japan, Vietnam and Taiwan are negotiating. India will join South Korea. Britain will follow. Only Canada and China are holding back because of the imbalance in trade heavily in their favor and a failure to see that it is about fairness. In the EU only Germany has a surplus many nations have a deficit, it seeks to start negotiating at the first opportunity. Contrary to what most of the American and British media says Lighhizer and Jamieson have thought this thing through for many years before arriving at the Tariffs advice they gave the US president as his 2 USTR. It is these two not the president acting on his own whim as the media like to show. And Lighthizer has done this before- as Deputy USTR in the 1980 with Japan on the opposite side and come out of it with winning solutions for the US and for the world.

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India's leading energy official, Anil Swarup, the Coal Secretary, says India has to depend on what is available, with slow progress on nuclear power there is not much else. As India increases its growth rate to 7-8% India will increasingly be dependent on coal. The Modi government plans to double coal production. About 300 million people in India have no access to electricity. The country faces energy shortages in other areas. Even with a push for renewable solar and wind energy, coal is expected to provide 60% of energy needs in India in 2030. One government model shows solar and wind increasing from 6% to 18% by 2030. India points to per capita emissions which are 1.7 for India, 6.2 for China, and 17.6 for the U.S., according to the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

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Harold Meyerson poses some difficult questions for those who like Mitt Romney say America's choice is between the merit based society Romney sees and the "European social democratic vision." In Romney's words- "a merit-based opportunity society- an American-style society- where people earn their rewards based on their education, their work, their willingness to take risks and their dreams." Meyerson cites several studies to show that European societies today are more dynamic on several measures of performance than America's. In intergenerational mobility he cites a Brookings Institution study by Julia Isaacs, that shows incomes are three times more likely to remain the same in America compared to Denmark, Norway and Finland, and one and a half times more frequently than in Germany. Another measure evident from Germany's experience is the degree of union-company-government cooperation to worker retraining, corporate boards that have representatives of workers and management, the "kurzarbeit" program of retaining employees to smooth out impact of cyclical swings in the economy on workers and companies, and worker's willingness to show restraint on wages especially because management wages are not way out of line as in America. Meyerson reminds readers that the U.S. had a more merit based society in terms of upward intergenerational mobility, distribution of rewards of work between workers in manufacturing and service sectors and management, educational mobility with the G.I. bill, in the first 30 years after the Second World War. In a separate article in the Washington Post on Jan. 5, 2012, David Ignatius poses questions about the effects of globalization in shrivelling the middle class. The access to lower wage manufacturing in China, India, Mexico, and other countries, and lowering of wages in the U.S. to be competitive, was part of globalization. The two tier wage structure in the U.S. automobile industry is one example, making middle class wages a thing of the past. Globalization opened up new markets for American companies. Yet many of the gains in employment were made in emerging markets, as the example of GM's expansion in China showed, with automobile manufacturing expansion inside China....

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Prime minister Modi of India's visit to Japan in September 2014 leads to a commitment of about $35 billion in Japanese investment over 5 years. Japanese companies such as Suzuki, Toyota and Toshiba already have large investments in India.

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Sanger and Broad offer an assessment of progress in controlling nuclear proliferation and improving security during the two terms of U.S. president Obama. Obama took particular interest in this field as Senator. Today countries such as Belgium, Pakistan, are considered sources of potential problems in nuclear security. Urban security for nuclear materials is a priority. Japan, China, Pakistan and India have not reduced their nuclear materials stockpiles in Asia, and Russia refused to participate in the Nuclear Summit in 2016, led by the U.S. Problems are urgent to secure nuclear materials from terrorists and require high priority from world leaders. Pakistan has moved towards smaller tactical nuclear weapons which creates additional problems of security.

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China's agriculture based on small farms is undergoing a change as the government pushes automated farming and large farms in the face of limited imports from the U.S. China put tariffs on agricultural imports from the U.S. in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. China's Agriculture Ministry says it will build 254 "strong agricultural industrial towns" as models for the country. President Xi stated on a visit to northeastern province Heilongjiang, that "unilateralism and trade protectionism are rising, forcing us to take the road of self reliance." The yield per hectare in the U.S. for soybeans is about twice that in China. Mechanized farming is limited in China because it would eliminate many jobs in rural areas. As the state has ownership of land and farmers merely use land, farmers are less likely to take risks with large long term investments. It can be risky for farmers to rent their land use rights to others, which would lead to consolidation.  Now a separate "Made in 2025" plan makes upgrading farm machinery and equipment one of the 10 goals. China may lift ban on genetically modified seeds now that ChemChina has acquired Swiss seed company Syngenta. China plans to partner with Asian Development Bank to provide $6 billion of loans, grants and investment to fund a list of development projects in rural areas, to modernize agriculture. WSJ cites a project of consolidation into an 8200 acre farm in Shandong province that  has increased yields 43% by investing in new farm equipment and planting machines, pesticide spraying drones. Scaling up has made this possible.    ...

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Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar makes a 3 day visit to Saudi Arabia. He addressed diplomats at the Prince Saud Al Faisal Institute of Diplomatic Studies in Riyadh. He will co-chair with Prince Faisal bin Al Saud the first ministerial meeting of the Committee on Political, Security, Social and Cultural  Cooperation (PSSC), established under the framework of the India-Saudi Arabia Strategic Partnership Council. What is happening here is that the Saudis can build their own ties in the region as they choose what is best for the future, compared to the relationship in the past which was as a state mainly dependent on the US but which sorely lagged behind in educationally, culturally, in developing its own scientific and technology institutions to transition into the modern age. The relationship in the past also appeared to be rooted in the colonial period that had transitioned only half way out of the colonial period into the relationship built by America's FDR and succeeding presidents with the royal family and monarchy of Saudi Arabia. Under Mohamad Bin Salman it now gives Saudis an opportunity to make its own choices with the help of neighbors such as India, Japan, and other countries. It also strengthens the relationship with the US and the EU in unseen ways through the Saudi relationship with India, Japan and other countries. Bilateral trade is at $30 billion for FY22 April to December. India imports 18% of crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia. Indian imports worth $23 billion, Indian exports worth $7 billion to Saudis. About 2.2 million Indians are living in Saudi Arabia. During the pandemic India was the closest health ally of the Saudis.   ...

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Saudi Arabia signed a series of agreements with India at the G20 Summit with $100 billion in investments planned including digital, rail, energy  and other connectivity for the IMEC corridor for India through Middle East to Europe. Saudi prince MBS announces the IMEC Corridor and talks about its significance at the G20 Summit.

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David Ignatius reflects on the changes in Saudi Arabia under MBS particularly women's rights to education and participation in society, and women free to exercise fundamental rights. Kemal Ataturk brought these kinds of changes to Turkey in the 1920's, after Turkey's disastrous participation in the First World War and conflict with Greece and colonial powers. 

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The director of the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy says he worries about the effect of automation on work performed by garment workers in countries such as Bangladesh. As machines become adept at performing the difficult tasks performed by humans, automation is spreading in places like Bangladesh. This report shows the Mohammadi Group which makes sweaters for H&M, Zara and other brands replacing 500 workers in its Bangladesh factory with 173 German machines. As wages grow in countries that made garment products such as Bangladesh, India, China and Cambodia are affected. A 2016 International Labor Organization Study predicts some Asian countries could lose as much as 80% of the apparel, textile jobs as automation spreads. This presents a huge problem for these countries as creating high skilled jobs is a challenge in these Asian countries. In Bangladesh where 2 million new jobs are needed each year to keep pace with increasing labor force, the 300,000 new textile industry jobs a year for 2003-2010 have shrunk now to about 60,000 a year, according to World Bank data.  The garment industry in Bangladesh provides 80% of the exports and 3 million  manufacturing jobs, reducing significantly the number of people below the poverty line. After a fire at a garment factory in Bangladesh the government set a monthly minimum wage of $64, an increase of 77%, with automatic annual raises. Factory owners moved to suburbs and used more machines to deal with labor unrest. Some garment workers became rickshaw drivers, a scooter type taxi in India. The Bangladeshi garment industry is continuing to be cost competitive by reducing costs through automation, increasing exports by 19.5% from 2013 to mid 2016, increasing jobs by 4.5% during this period, according to the local industry association figures.   ...

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Ed Finn, president of Barron's for 19 years from 1998 has observed the economy for decades and comes to the conclusion that the 2007-2008 banking crisis from Reagan style deregulation was the one principal factor the US economy and the people suffered from a lost decade that was extended to 15 years by the pandemic. This has ended under president Biden says Finn, with he says about 10% growth in S&P 500 every year since 2020 and expects growth at that rate for another 4 years under president Biden. What this says about ultra low interest rates is that it was bad for America and a result of the need for tackling the 2009 financial crisis. Interest rates need to be at the moderate level of about 4-5%, the level today, where savers are rewarded, retirees are rewarded, bondholders are rewarded, and excessive risk taking is penalized, says Finn. Moderate interest rates help mortgage holders and new companies start businesses. In short says Finn- this is the way a economy should be run. We were sold the idea of ultra low interest rates because no one wanted to talk about the bad effects of Reagan style deregulation that inevitably lead to lack of the financial oversight of regulatory authorites. Financial oversight by regulatory authorites needed for modern economies to run, whether this is the US, India, China, or any large European economy, it is an essential condition for stable long term growth that serves the needs of the people of every major economy in the world. The idea must be cast aside that economic policy must be determined by the swings in sentiment  every few decades in one direction to too little government from to too much government or reverse, and be determined by essential truths of how a sound and good economy is run. As the US enters 2024 what Powell a Republican, and Biden a Democrat, and the bipartisan group of Senators in the US Congress are saying is that we get it, and are with single minded determination making it happen. ...

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The WSJ provides a fact check of Trump statements on crime, debt, and taxes. Trump says he is looking at a new plan for taxes not the $10 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years reducing tax collection by 22%, but something about a third of the size. No details are available on the plan. WSJ disputes Trump's statement that the U.S. is "one of the highest taxed nations in the world." WSJ points out that the U.S. in 2014 for federal, state and local government taxes collected 26% of gross domestic product in taxes, compared to average of 34% for about 30 countries, according to OECD. Debt to GDP ratio is about 75% that is high, but because of low interest rates the budget deficit is less than 3% of GDP, which is close to the long run average. For this reason economists say the government should invest in infrastructure and R&D that supports long run economic growth. On crime the record is mixed with increase in Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York City, but decreases in Washington D.C. and Baltimore. Police shootings were 67 in 2016 compared to 62 in July 2015, and the high being 280 officers in 1974 when Nixon was President. Crime was an issue in the 1968 Republican National Convention during the Vietnam era protests, police shootings and terror incidents attracted attention in July 2016, yet the situation today is very different from the war protests of the Vietnam era. On terrorism fact checks by the NYT and in Lyrarc shows Clinton at State Department and Panetta at Defense Department taking hawkish stands only to hit a barrier from President Obama for taking action needed in Syria, Iraq and Libya. Panetta's new book calls for robust action where needed. A Clinton administration would take action with allies in the Middle East. Even Hollande and Obama who pulled the U.S. and France out of following up in the French-British Sarkozy-Cameron led intervention in Libya, have changed policy, with Obama calling it his biggest mistake. France under Hollande with the U.S. is now actively engaged in the Middle East, having changed policy. It is highly unlikely that a Trump led policy which alienates most allies in the Middle East- Iran, Iraq and Saudis- is likely to work better than a determined Clinton-Panetta led effort which has support of the local countries on the ground actually currently on both sides because of complexities of Middle Eastern politics.  On trade a new administration will still have to work with China, India, the European Union, and other countries, as global trade supply chains are not likely to evolve overnight. Lessons will have been learned by Clinton about the need to bring back jobs and ensure the strength of U.S. manufacturing. Economic and jobs growth will require prudence in strengthening U.S. manufacturing coupled with global cooperation, which a Trump administration that alienates trading partners without the possibility of making any serious immediate gains in jobs, is highly unlikely to do better.      ...

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Prof. Mohammad Ayoob of Michigan State University looks at the tit for tat military responses of India and Pakistan and tries to interpret the mixed signals of the Pakistan military and civilian president Imran Khan. He says Imran Khan had the difficult task of being in line with the top generals of the Pakistan military and at the same time responding to international pressures to de-escalate the crisis. Imran Khan asked India not to take the confrontation further or Pakistan would have to retaliate, and at the same time emphasized de-escalation as the goal with pressure from Saudi Arabia, the U.S. and China. The nuclear doctrines of the two countries which differ from the manner in which the U.S. and Soviets operated during the Cold War, also make escalation dangerous. Prof. Mohammad points out that the military in Pakistan plays a different role in the state since it was created in 1947. With military control of nuclear weapons any danger of losing control of the state and its position in the state since 1947 could lead to reckless strategies, says Prof. Mohammad. Mr. Imran Khan had to speak in different terms to different audiences in a kind of double speak in this situation. Mr. Khan spoke in terms of development and the need for Pakistan to fund the needed infrastructure always at the back of the mind in the current situation at the outset of the crisis. Much of this was lost in the ensuing hours of the crisis. Yet this remains the dominant need in South Asia as Mr. Imran Khan faces the challenge of meeting his promises for development as much as Mr. Modi faces the challenges of development to catchup with Asian neighbors South Korea and China who have shown how this can be done. A longer memory does show China and South Korea falling behind in the fifties and sixties before making great progress in the last 3 decades by pursuing peaceful cooperation with earlier adversary Japan,  and in the case of China the U.S.  Anyone familiar with the role played by the U.S. in China's civil war, and the Japanese invasions of Korea and China, during four decades of conflict,  followed by the cooperation offered by Japan and the U.S. to first South Korea and then China can see that progress is possible and lays the foundation for development. A recent article in The Guardian reports that China now lays more concrete every 2 years than the U.S. did for the entire twentieth century. None of this would be possible had Chinese leaders in their wisdom and passion for development not pursued development first and foremost, setting aside historic wounds. ...

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China gives Sri Lanka a $1.1 billion loan for infrastructure projects, roads, airports and power stations. Interest for loans has ranged from 4 to 6.4%, higher than World Bank loans but lower than loans from western commercial banks. Sri Lanka has $54 billion in debt, with large debt payments for a nation of 20 million. Chinese loans have helped build a expressway from Colombo to Katunayake airport, Puttalam power station, and a port at Hambantota. New loans are for work expanding Colombo's port facilities. During the 2015 election campaign the UNP party was critical of China's loans given to the Rajapakse government. The current UNP coalition of prime minister Ranil Wickremasinghe is continuing work on Chinese projects on the island and at the same time seeking  loans from India and Britain to maintain balanced relations. China sees Sri Lanka as an important part of president Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative. To assuage Buddhist and national sentiment in Sri Lanka China has adopted Buddhist diplomacy in negotiating with the new UNP led coalition government. ...

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The inability to convince farmers to trade land for a fair settlement in money, new homes, schools and other benefits and to make this a win-win proposiion between farmers and companies is holding up abut $98 billion in investments in steel plants and other plants. A bill in Parliament would require companies to negotiate directly with farmers and reach a settlement that is good for farmers to resolve what is increasingly a serious problem. It is holding up an industrial revolution and the creation of manufacturing industry in India to provide the kinds of jobs that are needed badly.

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Venezuela has heavy oil in the Orinoco basin, and 7 blocks there are up for bidding which could generate 1 million barrels aday of synthetic oil. The terms are that Petroleos de Venezuela would get 60% share ad operational control but not put up any money. In addition the government will take a 33% royalty and a windfall tax. State owned oil companies in China, India and Russia, Perobras, BP, Chevron, Shell and Total have expressed interest. Political risk is taken into account but some countries are on friendly terms with Venezuela. Main concern is the recession and fall in price of oil.

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Margo Oge, headed the Office of Transportation and AIr Quality at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency from 1994-2012. Here she points out the contradiction in what automakers supported when the current fuel emission standards were set and today's effort by the Trump administration to loosen the standards. She also points to the contradiction between the trends in Europe, China, India, which are moving towards stricter standards and the U.S. reversing direction.  About one dozen states in addition to California have the power under the Clean Air Act to set their own standards. These states make up about one third of the U.S. market. What would result is a fracturing of the U.S. market. This would create problems for automakers as one expert recently pointed out in the NYT, that automakers should be careful what they wish for.  Automakers such as Ford say they support the current fuel emissions standards, yet call for flexibility. GM's CEO, Mary Barra, says she supports current standards. Toyota also says it supports the current emission standards. And diesel engines are now declining in Europe as a result of fuel emissions standards to preserve good air quality. History has shown the automakers have suffered badly from competition when emissions and fuel efficiency standards were lax. During the last decade the auto industry in Michigan faced decline as a result of poor management decisions and lack of foresight in pushing forward with new technologies in this field. The current recovery in the auto industry is a result of a reversal of the poor decisions made between 2000-2008, including fuel emissions and fuel efficiency, air quality decisions.    ...

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Lashkar aPakistan terrorist group which recruits members has 150,000 members in Pakistan and is drawing increasing support, has connections to Pakistan's Intelligence Agency ISI at different levels on a clandestine level, and is capable of another attack. The ISI leadership for its part has not abandoned its goal for freeing Kashmir but simply shelved it for now. Says the Times report by Lyddia Polgreen and Souad Mekhennet, with interviews and classified information from ISI officials and operatives, the capabilities of Lashkar are intact, only "a thin distance" separates the Lashkar from the ISI bridged by military and former intelligence service members, and another attack is possible. The cooperation between the the Indian and Pakistani intelligence and police even now is zero according to this report. This has grim consequences for the American troops in the Afghanistan region and the Pakistan troops fighting the war in the border regions, and for economic development in South Asia. For the first time the consequences of past failed policies in the region are threatening the vital interests of the American and South Asian people, as wars and conflict now seriously threaten much needed infrastructure and economic development in South Asia and economic renewal in North America. And serious solutions and problem solving is sorely needed on the North American side and the South Asian side. The vital interests and future of about 400 million people in North America and 1400 million people in South Asia would otherwise be held hostage to the volatile emotions of 8 million people in Pakistani and Indian parts of Kashmir, in a remote region of the world. ...

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Modifications proposed for Agnipath recruitment to the Indian armed services include full healthcare benefits and pension benefits for the scheme. The government has presented a fact vs. myth explanation to provide a clear understanding of the intent of the scheme to reflect a younger population and integrated India without the regimental bias towards caste and region present since British times. Job security is always a concern in India. The better technically trained and better financed Agniveer recruit would have more opportunities for education and training after 4 years and become an attractive asset for the private and public sector. A program of this kind was the GI Bill in the US that Franklin Roosevelt signed in 1944 and the Veteran Act of 2008 that continued educational benefits for free college. These programs have resulted in benefit of great value to the US economy and to the military veterans who used these benefits. In India's fast growth period after 2025 the Indian economy would be 50% larger and be easily able to take in these graduates from the armed services with technical training and advanced courses just as the US economy did decades ago. During the days following the pandemic there is a sense of pessimism in some sections and the government can enhance the package with added pension benefits and healthcare and still keep the financial aspects in good shape. ...