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Economists at the IMF estimate that the public debt of the leading 10 industrialized countries would reach 114% of GDP by 2014, from 78% today. The governments then owe about $50,000 for each person in the country. Unlike World War II this situation is not temporary, because of the pension and health care costs of a population that is getting older. So what is to be done? Without the stimulus, the deep and prolonged recession would lead to greater damage to the finances of these countries. But continued in this manner the government would crowd out private investment and lead to lower economic growth. In some countries, Greece, Ireland, Italy Portugal and Spain it might lead to default, in other countries the real cost of the debt may be reduced through inflation. In the USA yields on 10 year Treasuries reached about 4% on June 10th, in December it was about 2%, a consequence of the economic recovery. If interest rates are allowed to rise too fast, it might abort the economic recovery. A rise in taxes is also not the answer, because in Europe the taxes are already at 40%, in America they are around 30%. But raising consumption taxes at the time when the economy was fragile, aborted a recovery in Japan during Japan's earlier crisis decade. A caution signal that says fiscal tightening can backfire, especially some years after a banking crisis when things are still in a weak condition. Some steps that can be taken are raising the retirement age, which would cut pension costs as people work longer and would boost tax revenues, and eliminating the tax deduction for home mortgage payments in the US. Its important to build credibility that the government and the legislative bodies are serious about controlling the finances and acting with prudence. In America wasteful health care spending is a priority, as this would reduce the burden on public finances considerably , and should be as much of a priority for the new Obama administration, as providing universal health care. With today's finances its not something that can be put off....

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Former U.S. president Geroge W. Bush in retirement years spends time in Dallas, with time spent on his passions for painting, golf, and mountain biking. He stays out of the discussion of current issues even though many of these issues relating to fairness in economic policy, immigration, security surveillance and the Middle East go back to the time when he was president. Friends say he has simply left behind concern about legacy and moved on focussing on living. Privately he has expressed concern about the Tea Party and America's isolationist tendencies in world affairs. He is also skeptical about the new Iranian government's offer of negotiations on nuclear policy.

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Mitt Romney describes his experiences with different companies he worked with at Bain Capital and how he would use that experience in his job as President. One approach he emphasizes is proactive problem solving and tackling problems early.

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An exceptional journalism story of what happened on Sept 16 and September 17, 2008, and the aftermath, by Pulliam, Rappaport, Lucchetti, Strasburg and McGinty, when Morgan Stanley stock lost more than half its value and was at risk of collapsing. What caused the collapse in price? This article shows how the biggest names in financial institutions were buying protection with credit default swaps, and as the price of these swaps skyrocketed on Sept 16 and Sept 17, the shortselling in Morgan Stanley's shares also skyrocketed. Shortselling on Sept 17 reaching nine times the normal, with 39 million shares sold short adding to the 31 million shares sold short in the prior two days, according to trading records examined by WSJ. It was at this point, on the pleas of John Mack CEO of Morgan Stanley, the SEC stepped in to temporarily suspend short selling. It is hard to clearly isolate the shortselling that went on for protection, from the shortselling for speculation, but hedge funds were involved and some of the shortselling was done to make a quick profit. Citigroup has faced the problem of losing half the share's value in a couple of days in the week of November 17, and shortselling in Citigroup's shares contributed to the collapsing stock. See the 3 graphs setup to show the influence of credit default swaps on short selling, and the on share price for Morgan Stanley. On Monday November 24, the government announced a rescue plan for Citigroup. That the uptick rule has not been reinstated as yet, means that when one looks back at this period a few years from now it will show errors in handling this economic and financial markets crisis were made, different from that in the 1930's, but with serious consequences. ...

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Khairat el-Shatar, financial leader of the Muslim Brotherhood was nominated as the party's candidate for president in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood controls the newly elected parliament and the body that is writing the new constitution. It is in a struggle with the military about limiting the military's role under the new constitution. The Brotherhood sees the election of its candidate as president as important to not diluting its influence in relation to the military and other parties. Khairat has committed to following a moderate course in setting Egypt on a new path, with a focus on reviving the economy.

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How the Bush presidency started with hopes in domestic policy that were never to come to fruition. Jacob Weisberg, editor of Slate, reflects on the promise of the Bush State of the Union address of Feb. 2001, and the compassionate conservatism it evoked- the Bush priorities of education, setting higher educaion standards, immigration reform, helping needy and at risk children, health care access. He recalls the words used by Bush in Spanish: "Juntos podemos," we can do it together. As governor of Texas Bush had focussed on racial disparities and gaps in education, winning 27% of black votes and a third of Hispanic votes. Then came 9/11 (2002), weapons of mass destruction (from 2003 onwards), which soon overshadowed the education efforts, grants to extend health insurance coverage, initiative to encourage mentring of at-risk children. The $10 billion program to fight AIDS in Africa and the Caribbean is a part of the Bush legacy, other areas were overcome by the distraction of wars in the Middle East....

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Transcripts from U.S. Federal Reserve meetings in 2006 that show Bernanke, as Fed chairman, and Geithner, as head of the New York Fed, ignored the risks of a collapsing bubble in housing and mortgages.

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A move by the Obama administration to reenergize its Hispanic base with action on immigration three months before the U.S. presidential election of 2012. A new policy issued as a directive by President Obama allows one million young illegal immigrants to remain in the U.S. A 16 page guideline issued by the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services states that applicants have to show they lived in the U.S. for five years and pay a $465 fee. The policy applies to people in the ages of 15 to 30, applicants must show they completed high school, or were honorably discharged from the U.S. military. The program will offer a two year renewable expemption from deportation and work permit to people coming to the U.S. as children. President Reagan was the last president who issued a directive of this type offering amnesty in 1986 to 3 million illegal immigrants. The Obama administration says this will help conserve enforcement resources are not spent on low priority cases of young people who came to the U.S. as children, as there are an estimated 11 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. The Dream Act legislation to legalize undocumented young people is stuck in Congress with no agreement on how to move forward. The states and cities where people mainly from Latin America and Asia would benefit are- California with 400,000 who could benefit, Texas with 225,000, and New York City with 55,000....

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Product obsolescence in a matter of weeks- the situation with the HP Touchpad. The Touchpad tablet is introduced at a retail price of $399 for 16GB and $499 for 32GB versions on July 1, 2011. The product is scrapped by CEO Apotheker after disappointing sales within weeks of introduction. It is now sold at a sale price of $99 in the last week of August 2011. This shows the astounding rate at which things change in the high tech product markets. Nokia, Nintendo, and now HP have seen their fortunes change quickly in 2011.

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Microsoft CEO Brad Smith is taking a different approach with regulators than tech rivals Apple and Google. In this report by WSJ he says that tech is now in the same situation that the financial companies were after the financial misdeeds of 2008 which caused a global financial crisis. Banks had to adapt to the regulation that followed. Tech says Brad Smith will have to do the same after missteps of its own. Better for Microsoft to work proactively with regulators than to stall regulation is Smith'e view.

To do this Smith brings 30 years of experience working with Microsoft and seven as president. During this time he had extensive interface with regulators and government, so that he brings more experience in this field than his peers at Google or Apple. 

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After the catastrophic Hurricane Helene damage in the western part of North Carolina in areas around Asheville, Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, said of relief efforts-

“It makes no difference who you are, if you need help we are going to provide it. If there is ever a time where we all need to come together and put politics aside, it is now.”

Parts of Georgia were also hit by the storm system. Governor Kemp, Republican of Georgia, said that Biden told him-

"Biden just said, hey, what do you need, and I told him, you know, we got what we need, we’ll work through the federal process. He offered that if there’s other things we need just to call him directly,” he said.

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Not since the days of the Vietnam War has Madison, Wisconsin seen the kinds of demonstrations that were seen last week. This raises a question whether this creates an awakening of the progressive movement. Wisconsin, New Jersey, Ohio, seem to suggest that whats happening in the states will become more important in shaping public opinion as the U.S. elections of 2012 approach. Ohio also has a plan by Governor John Kasich that restricts collective bargaining rights of public workers. A key question is how much public support there is for reduction of pension and health benefits of public employees. Even though the favorable ratings of unions are at a low, according to a survey by the Pew Research Center, the public is divided over whether it supports unions or state governments in disputes about benefits, with slightly more support for the unions. And other states such as Michigan with new Republican governors and majorities in state legislatures say they are not taking the path of Wisconsin in limiting collective bargaining rights, suggesting caution in this respect, even as they plan cuts in benefits. Because of the intensity and passion that has been aroused something more than the calculations of the politicians, including the President, may be at play. President Obama, says the Washington Post, is playing a longer game on the budget, with a measured response, but also saying that teachers, firefighters and police officers were being vilified. The demonstrations in Wisconsin were more bottom up than top down, and have the potential to affect the political dynamic and the way the U.S. addresses its problems in unpredictable ways....

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This important WSJ report shows how the CDC labs failed to come with the test after contamination of a component and failure of the third part of the three part test components. In the absence of a working test from CDC where delays cost three weeks of February the private labs all over the country and state labs could have developed their own test, yet HHS and FDA required approval for these labs to develop their own test and use it. From Feb. 8 when state and city public health labs detected problems with the CDC test to Feb 29 when solutions were developed including simply excluding the third part of the three component test, and letting labs around the country do their own test, were 3 crucial weeks that let the virus spread out of control. The CDC, HHHS, and the FDA and their managers and heads of departments bear responsibility for these errors. Week after week the delays continued, instead the two component test which detects if the genetic material in the sample is coronavirus material, could simply have been approved at the outset instead of the approval for this given weeks later. The third component of the test checks if the virus mutated, according to this report. There is no explanation why the labs all over the U.S. were not allowed to go ahead on February 9 itself or within a few days after that to develop their own tests once it was clear the CDC test did not work on that day. CDC officials failed to recognize that there was a possibility that they may not be able to fix the faulty third component of the test and the risks if they gave false reassurances. There is also no explanation of why a German designed test was not used once the CDC test failed on Feb. 9, which would be a proper way for action considering that this pandemic had already shutdown parts of China by this time. Alarming also is the mention in this report that on Feb. 22 a FDA official in charge of lab diagnostics  flies to Atlanta where the CDC Respiratory Diagnostic lab which developed the test is located. His boss FDA medical device center director is cited from later information as describing the lab as "filthy" meaning the lab had the potential to contaminate, and going so far as saying that if it had been any other lab it would have been shut down. Considering that investment in public health has deteriorated over the last two decades and that there has been a massive misallocation of capital in the country away from public infrastructure this is appalling. The thought of critical labs for emergency health needs as not being up to high quality standards in the U.S. as a result of two decades of misspending, that this shows, is very disturbing.  This WSJ report is based on interviews with people who know about the testing crisis, and undisclosed emails, correspondence on the issues involved. Community transmission began in January 2020 in the U.S. These delays were costly in February and could have been prevented either by going with the German design on Feb 10 or asking labs across the U.S. to develop their own test, and letting other labs immediately use the modified 2 component test of CDC that worked instead of doing this action weeks later. Mardi Gras on Feb 25 and other places where large crowds gathered in sports stadiums could have been stopped had testing gone forward and shown the true extent of the community transmission in these critical weeks.  First China delayed a U.S. team of experts coming into the country for weeks, and then the CDC, FDA, HHS, failed to get testing started, creating  a false sense of complacency. Two crucial errors outside and inside the country that caused so much damage to America and the world.   ...

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Many of the young people joining terrorist groups come from Tunisia. A security expert tells DW.com that the radicalization of youth in Tunisia began with the overthrow of Ben Ali and his government in Tunisia at the beginning of the Arab Spring in 2011. Ben Ali's regime detained many of the people in opposition groups, leading to the release from prisons during the revolution. The radicalization of Tunisia's youth began during this period, according to this report. The Benghazi attacks on American embassy from Libyans opposing Gaddafi who had crossed the border into Mali, also followed a similar pattern after the overthrow of Gaddafi in Libya. In Libya many radicalized people in opposition groups were released from detention following Gaddafi's overthrow. The current democratically elected government of Tunisian president Beji Essebsi is monitoring the situation. This report describes the experience of some Tunisians in terrorist groups who were brought back home from other countries by their families. EU countries and the U.S. supported the Arab Spring but the aftermath was not well managed leading to further upheaval, and now terrorism. Some of this happened as the governments changed in the U.S. with Obama replacing Bush in the U.S. and Hollande replacing Sarkozy in France, and showing little interest in managing the aftermath or helping the new governments in Libya, Tunisia and other countries make a smooth transition with aid, security assistance, and maintaining the basic services provided by government. A well formulated and conducted effort from the West could have prevented the worst effects that are seen in 2014-2016. The costs to contain the crisis that has ensued are far greater than what would have been needed in material resources and expert assistance from the developed countries of Europe and the U.S.- without military involvement as there was a general sense of being lifted from years of dictatorship in Arab North Africa, and general sense of goodwill towards the West during the Arab Spring.   ...

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Germany's calls for closer political and fiscal union for the eurozone countries to complement and support the euro currency arrangement. German chancellor Merkel calls it "more Europe," "step by step." It all hinges on French president Hollande and how well the Socialist party does in the elections to the National Assembly on June 10 and June 17, 2012. If he does well and gets a working majority with other like minded parties he will not need the support of parties that are opposed to giving up sovereignty. Hollande's mentor is Jacques Delors, a former president of the European Commission and a strong supporter of the idea of European Union. England under the Conservatives remains Euro-skeptic. France and Germany were driven closer by the idea of European Union by necessity, because of history and three wars. The European Union had strong support after 1945 from French and German leaders, Monnet and Adenauer, who struggled with political opposition but won over skeptics, with the process continued by German chancellor Kohl, a mentor of Angela Merkel....

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This editorial in the WSJ responds to Donald Trump's comments about the system being "corrupt" and "crooked" and saying there could be violence at the convention. It says the rules are transparent and long standing in Wyoming, Colorado and other states where Trump has not campaigned or sought support. It calls on the Republican National Committee not to be intimidated by Trump's statements, especially as it says the the Republican party should not nominate a candidate who has the highest negative perceptions rating of a shocking 65% with national voters in a general election. Trump never complained when he won 99 delegates in Florida with 45% of the vote and 50 delegates in South Carolina with 32% of the votes cast- securing the most delegates because of a winner take all or winner take most system. It says Trump has so far won only 37% of all votes cast and won about 45% of the delegates, a process that can be seen as disproportionately favoring Trump because of the rules. This is particularly true because Trump's core support has remained at about 35%, and the fragmentation of the remaining vote has hurt the other candidates. About 83% of eligible voters have not voted in the primaries, making the process less representative than it should be. ...

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Pakistan's GDP growth is expected to be 4% in 2012, an increase from 2% in 2011. Foreign exchange reserves are up to $18 billion. Repayments in 2015 to the IMF will be a quarter of the payment in 2012, says Finance Minister Abdul Hafeez Shaikh. Tax collections are up 24% for the first 9 months of the fiscal year 2012. Remittances from Pakistanis aborad are up 21% to $9.7 billion and exports up 5.5% over the $25 billion exports for 2011. In an WSJ op-ed, April 16, 2012, Michael Boskin,who helped negotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement for the elder President Bush, says it is time for a free trade agreement between India and Pakistan. Shaikh says he expects to see trade with India up from the insignifcant levels of $2.7 billion in 2012 to $10 billion by 2015. Boskin sees the potential for trade at $50 billion based on trade models. This would help change the landscape in the South Asian region after decades of neglect, strife and conflicts and is long overdue to benefit the billion people on the subcontinent....

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Friedman points to the parallel between the democracy movements in Eastern Europe and the Arab World, and sees one difference. Whereas the countries in Eastern Europe were mostly homogenous except for Yugoslavia, the countries in the Arab world are homogenous only in Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco. Which makes the transition to democracy that much harder with sectarian interests, the Sunni-Shiite divide, tribal differences, and the lack of a transition period for building democratic institutions. This will require vision, leadership and perseverance from Arab peoples and from the outside world.

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Questions may relate more to how these situations affected the role of Gates and similar individuals in protecting the interests of the US, Europe, India, Latin America and Africa in health organizations such as the World Health Organization. As globalization spread governments in the West surrendered some of the essential role they played in world health organizations to individuals and NGO's, and countries lacking experience needed for such an important task. The mishandling of the pandemic is partly a result of this retreat by western governments from the role that they have played during the nineteenth and twentieth century. In the US letter to the WHO by president Trump the role of Gro Harlem Brundtland of Norway was shown in handling an earlier virus epidemic that originated in Asia so that it would not spread and could be controlled. This is the H1N1 crisis in 2003 cited in Mr. Trump's letter to the World Health Organization. Brundtland took strong action that was missing during this pandemic after the US and western nations surrendered the essential role they have played for centuries based on role in medical science discovery for maintaining public health. Surrendering this role or seeing it erode is one of the biggest mistakes of our time and a mistaken form of globalized behaviour. It is only now being corrected as the realization dawns on major nations such as US, UK, France, Japan, Russia, India and other countries about the essential stability provided by western nations knowledge, experience and resources to this task of maintaining global health. Even a nation like India has to base its role on hundred or more years of work in medical science and commitment to public health that transcends political preferences or national interest to take on and be a worthy participant with the advanced nations that have played so great and beneficial role for the world in public health. What to speak of transient interest of nations in the developing world or countries where national interest or political preferences play a part in public health of the peoples of the world. This responsibility for world's public health can never be delegated to individuals, foundations or any one country, or small countries, or a combination of these, only to the collective experience of the last 300 years in medical science discovery and the role of Europe including Russia, and the US in leading the way.  The Biden administration has the same underlying concerns as the Trump administration about this mishandling of the pandemic and the disasters that followed bringing so much death and suffering This excerpt on Brundtland of Norway is from the letter the US sent to the World Health Organization- "In 2003, in response to the outbreak of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in China, Director-General Harlem Brundtland boldly declared the World Health Organization’s first emergency travel advisory in 55 years, recommending against travel to and from the disease epicenter in southern China. She also did not hesitate to criticize China for endangering global health by attempting to cover up the outbreak through its usual playbook of arresting whistleblowers and censoring media. Many lives could have been saved had you followed Dr. Brundtland’s example." ...