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DW.com's Ines Pohl says the U.S. presidential election campaign in 2016 with Donald Trump is a reflection of the state of American society today. She says lets not kid ourselves, what is happening is a reflection of the changes in society, demagogy as a reflection of the society we live in- people's lack of interest in serious issues, the loudest getting heard, less interest in checking the facts, and looking for a good show or entertainment in the debate. She points to problems in today's society, new technologies in media, that have fostered a new kind of shallowness. This includes fragmented social media groups, media that allows scapegoat theories to thrive, and elites or people in authority that lack the ability to respond to the challenges posed by this. She rightly points out that it goes beyond this campaign season and will continue into the future till it is resolved. What would Abraham Lincoln think of this, or what would George Washington or Thomas Jefferson think of this? LyrArc has frequently quoted these lines from a letter by Washington to Jefferson in Feb. 1783, and in the First Letter from the Editor- "To merit the approbation of good and virtuous citizens is the height of my ambition;  and will be a full compensation for all my toils and sufferings in the long and painful contest that we have been engaged." Washington told his countrymen in his draft of the First Inaugural Address that "there is no truth more thoroughly established, than that there exists in the economy and course of nature, an indissoluble union between virtue and happiness, between duty and advantage, between the genuine maxims of an honest and magnanimous policy, and the solid rewards of public prosperity and felicity." This has profound meaning and is truly applicable in meeting the challenges America and Europe face today.   ...

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Hamburg is the key city in Germany's trade with China. About half of $200 billion in trade between Germany and China passes through the port of Hamburg. The South China Morning Post looks at the dilemma in Hamburg over relations with China in the post Merkel era. Merkel maintained strong and close ties with China signing an agreement with China her last year in office. This was when Mr. Trump was US president. Since then president Biden has changed US policy towards Europe. The South China Morning Post points out that The Greens and the FDP key partners of Scholz in a new coalition government, are critical of Merkel's policy towards China in its overall relationship with the US and the rest of the world. Scholz was mayor of Hamburg, and a partner in Merkel's coalition government in which he was vice chancellor. Scholz has talked very little on what the new German policy would be. China seeks to maintain its economic ties in the next few years with Germany while reducing its dependence on other countries under Xi Jinping's new vision for China that seeks to depend less on trade and real estate for its economy and growth. Yet the pace of change has accelerated during the pandemic with a new global supply chain emerging from the chaotic years of 2020-2021. US policy under president Biden is similar to policies under Franklin Roosevelt in the 1930's during the economic and political crises, and look to be setting a new path to the future for the rest of the world. ...

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Vice President Harris speaks at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, about a fundamentally different economic vision for the country- one for the Middle Class and the other for the wealthiest in the country. "For Trump our economy works the best if it works for the people who own the skyscraper, not those who build the skyscrapers, those who wire them, the people who mop the floors." "I have pledged that a strong middle class will be the defining goal of my presidency. It is not about ideology, it is about common sense. It is just common sense." "Like generations before us let us be inspired by what came before us. I believe in what FDR called "bold persistent experimentation." "I believe in free and fair markets- in transparent rules of the road. To respect the rights of unions, and workers, and fair competition. And where this is violated I will hold them accountable. I believe the active partnership between the government and the private sector is the best way to unlock the opportunities in our Economy." ...

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China imports from the US only $143 billion and much of this is soyabeans (US farmers), petroleum oil products (buyers in Europe and Asia), aircraft (Boeing). Farmers were compensated from the tariff revenues in the first term, oil products would be shipped to Asia and LNG to Europe to make up for loss of supplies from Russia. India will take up the Boeing production as it's economy expands to levels China, Japan had earlier. The action is a last resort as 490,000 lives were lost in 12 years from the fentanyl shipped raw materials from China and drug trafficking gangs in Mexico processing it in labs to ship across the long US border or Canadian border into the US. China and Mexico have not stopped the flow of fentanyl into the US. How much is 490,000 American lives worth? That is 5 times the lives lost in the Vietnam War and the Korean War combined of 100,000 lives lost in both wars. China exported $436 billion to the US in 2023 increasing by about 6% from prior year. Integrated Circuits alone were more than all US exports combined to China at $154 billion. Electric batteries another $80 billion. Computers and office machine parts were $54 billion. Where will China ship all these products. It is brave but it is easier to stop fentanyl flows out of China, and cut all the trade barriers, reverse state policy to dominate key industrial sectors in State Planning. The problem in the stock market response is that this is a trade war which it is NOT. It is about National Security if this is allowed to continue as Clinton, Bush, Obama have allowed to happen US is in real danger of becoming a second rate power in the world, at which point the world will become a dangerous place with India, China, Russia, Germany and other states having no constraints to create future wars without US to set some basic principles of world peace. UN itself would not exist without Cordell Hull and FDR. The world we know will be GONE. US Navy will not be able to build the ships it needs in USA if this deindustrialization is allowed to continue.    ...

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Bank of England governor Mervyn King's speech at the Economc Club of New York in Dec. 2012. About incoming governor Mark Carney, King says "I think he'll do a great job and they won't miss me at all." He says one way or another the U.S. will find a way to avoid the fiscal cliff. He sees a tension between short and long term policy goals such as recapitalizing banks and having governments reduce their debt.

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The trade deficit with China has led to loss of 3.8 million jobs, 75% of them or 2.9 million in manufacturing. Go back to 1990 and Beijing was a city of bicycles not cars. If Beijing shifted to a open economy and simply imported products from the US and Europe as it had done since 1700 it would have remained a backward agricultural economy. It took 20 years of focused effort after 2000 for China with US technological assistance to excel in manufacturing, as the US had done after 1920. Can or cannot the US excel in Manufacturing with its own focused effort and restore jobs and decent wages to the American people, that is the question. That a $1 trillion deficit that has already destroyed the US manufacturing and its capacity to defend itself by rapidly building up the US Navy, is that not an emergency, then what is, is also the question, and the role, the duty, of the president of the US in such a situation. The federal appeals court has allowed the DJT Tariffs to remain in place till it goes to the US Supreme Court. Today May 30 the WSJ in a front page article shown here says the one California shipyard could assemble a supply ship in 5 days in 1942. China's independence in the fight against Imperial Japan and the Kwantung Army's adventures, and the independence of Europe in the 1940's depended on this vital US capacity. Is this forgotten? FDR acted step by step by 1938 to restore the US lost capacity at that time, what is the role of the president today? ...

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The WSJ's Peter Nicholas, Carol Lee and John McKinnon describe the events leading to the election of Obama to a second term as U.S. president. A significant move by the Obama campaign was to spend heavily in the early part of the campaign to show Romney as a predatory capitalist by focussing on his record a a private equity business executive who focussed on profits. More voters perceived Obama as caring about people like themselves. The voter turnout was also carefully executed especially for minority voters. For the first time since Mondale's loss to Reagan fewer white voters supported a presidential candidate- only 38% of the white vote went for president Obama compared to 60% for Romney. Obama's campaign focussed on protecting the middle class and working class from sharp spending cuts. Voters major issue was the economy, with unemployment at 7.9%. Yet voters largely did not hold Obama responsible for the economy and considered Wall Street and the previous George W. Bush administration responsible for the events leading to the 2008 financial crisis....

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The bottom half of all U.S. households have only recently recovered the wealth lost in the 2009 financial crisis. They still have 32% less wealth than in 2003 when inflation is taken into account. The top 1% of households have more than twice as much as they did in 2003. Wealth is defined as net worth that includes houses , savings and stocks minus any debt. The wealthy have 85% of their wealth in stocks and bonds. For the bottom 50% half of the assets are in the house or family home. Economic and regulatory trends have happened in ways that favored the people investing in stocks, and rescued people investing in stocks with policies designed with this purpose by central banks and the U.S. government. By contrast for the bottom 50% buying a home is more difficult today. The problem this WSJ report points out is that the next recession would most hurt the bottom 50%, even before they have recovered from the last one which was a result of shaky practices of banks in financial lending and not some cyclical swing in the economy. Policy was then geared to provide a recovery first for stock markets as a way to economic recovery. The bottom 50% have little stake in the stock market, the top 1% have most of their gains from the stock market. Much of the popular anger comes from the way policies by both Democrats and Republicans differed little in past administrations in the way they approached this in shaping economic policy. As a result infrastructure building and investments in public services took less priority in this period of 30 years with trade imbalances with China building up on the external front, in another side to this development. The shift to Trump and to right wing populists in Europe is only the first phase in the corrective action that has to take place to return to a fairer distribution of wealth that existed before the last 3 decades. Eventually it is not right wing or left wing factions or parties, but healthy policies, that matter to create a better balance for society.  ...

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Thomas Hoenig, chairman of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, says the five largest financial institutions in the US are 20% larger today than they were before the 2008 crisis. These five institutions control $8.6 trillion in financial assets or the equivalent of 60% of gross domestic product in the USA. He points out that whether we like it or not, these firms are too big to fail. Though these institutions survived the 2008 crisis with a bailout from the Fed as shown in the Fed's recent revealed documents, Hoenig says, little has changed on Wall Street. Two years after the crisis of 2008, these firms again operate with bonus and compensation schemes that reflect not the recent failures but a sense of success. Hoenig says this is why the American people are angry. An absence of accountability and blatant inequities with which smaller businesses and institutions were treated compared to the large ones, is why they will remain angry. Without this accountability he feels Americans cannot build a national consensus for the sacrifices needed to rebuild the American economy....

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Discussion at a U.S. Fed meeting in Jan 28-29, 2014, as revealed in the minutes for that meeting. It shows Fed officials such as Bullard of the St Louis Fed asked for a debate on interest rates, but most Fed oficials at the meeting including Lockhart of the Atlanta Fed, supported current tapering policy to wind down bond purchases buy the end of 2014. Some of the discussion went to how fast the unemployment rate had declined from 7.9% to the 6.5% threshold set by the Fed, and what this meant as other signs show weakness in the U.S. economy. The drop in the unemployment rate reflected more older workers retiring and to an unusual degree discouraged workers dropping out and not looking for work. Should the Fed put more weight on inflation and financial stability some officials argued, especially as inflation was still about a percentage point below the 2% target by some estimates.

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The situation in Ireland for the tax paying public is similiar to the situation in the US, as Peter Coy points out. Ireland has guaranteed the debts of its banks, but in doing so it has assumed a huge burden. The costs relative to Ireland's small economy for a single bank, the Anglo Irish Bank, would amount to $3 trillion if this was done on a comparable basis in the US, says Coy. In the US 1 in 5 homeowners are under water, and the Bush and Obama plans have done little to make principal reductions; the most they have achieved say experts is reduce the interest. The Foreclosure Prevention Working Group, an organization of states' attorneys general, says the large majority of mortgage modifications raised and not reduced the amount owed by homeowners. As Carmen Reinhart points out, if the government assumes private debt, it should do so at a realistic price, and this means haircuts. So far this has not happened. In the case of AIG, the government assumed all the debts, fully insuring AIG bondholders from losses. If the government is going to take up the problem of the homeowners under water, private debt holders are going to have to take haircuts. Bad lending would be encouraged if creditors know that they will be protected in the future. Policymakers may have waited too long because its equally irresponsible to gurantee payment of debts 100% as it is to do what has happened so far, which was to say the principal reductions would encourage borrowers to borrow recklessly. ...

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DJT takes action on Venezuela for not taking action fast enough to accept deportees from the eight million that left the Latin American country over the last 10 years because of mismanaging the economy, runaway inflation and repression of dissent. He also cited that free and fair elections were not honored by the regime of president Maduro who followed after the death of Hugo Chavez in March 2013.

The US immigration problem comes largely from the Venezuela problem. What happened there hurt the US with the flow of millions of migrants across the border from Venezuela and gangs other elements entering the US. 

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There appears to be a conscious deliberate decision by the Chinese government and policymakers to shift the economy from low-end technologically unsophisticated and polluting industry, that pays low wages with little worker protections, towards technologically sophisticated, environment respecting, and higher wage industry. This does not mean textiles are out, but textile companies that are larger better managed, able to introduce newer technologies and produce higher quality product- that command higher prices in the world market and therefore also able to sustain decent wages and worker protection- are in. Phasing out the smaller shops and the poorly run or deliberately polluting and labor exploiting companies run from Hong Kong or elsewhere. The general shift is to be a leader in products which are value added either by technology or human capital, such as better trained more knowledgeable workers. This is similiar to the shift Japan made after the sixties, as it moved from a rural to a urbanized society and textile companies like Kanebo became technologically sophisticated, while small shops withered out, and Japan gradually shifted into automobiles, electronics and chip making. The noticeable difference is that Japan with a prewar industrial base and a smaller market protected its home market for Japanese companies, whereas China lacking this prewar industrial base let foreign investment and companies overseas bring in equipment and use low cost Chinese labor to supply western markets. And it turned a blind eye to labor protections, at least till it had built up its own industrial base and knowhow with policy requiring Chinese partners in industry and technology transfer. Economic winds are also doing the job. Inflation, Chinese goods prices increased by 4.6% in May according to the U.S. Commerce Department. This is a result of the Chinese government requiring worker protections and decent wages and stricter pollution enforcement resulting in increased energy costs. For years the U.S. and other countries depended on China for low cost goods and the demand for low cost goods depressed margins which resulted in legitmate costs such as pollution control technology, worker protection and decent wages, being ignored. China is now left with heavy environmental cleanup costs, and a bad image internationally as a heavy polluter. The huge external trade surpluses China has built up exceeding a trillion dollars have pushed up the value of the yuan making Chinese goods costlier in world markets, and apparel and shoe makers in developed countries seeing Vietnam as a better lowcost alternative. The story of this phase of Chinese industrial development can be seen in a town like Honghe, a 90 minute drive from Shanghai, which has half of its 100,000 residents working in 100 factories and 8000 shops that knit, dye, package and ship some 200 million sweaters a year, bringing in according to local government estimates $650 million a year. Now many of these shops are idle and mirant workers are returning home. To see the subtler signs of the Chinese policymakers hand note that even visa policies have been tightened to make it harder for foreign buyers to visit Chineses factories and trade shows. Also the Chinese government has raised the minimum age for workers in these factories from 16 to age 18 and so on. And the impact is being felt in places like Honghe near Shanghai, Shengzhou another city near Shanghai which makes one third of the world's neckties, and in Dongguan in Guangdong where its toy, shoes shops close. The change also shows how quickly things can change in the world economy. Only 3 years earlier in 2005, Jiaxing Yishangmei Fashion Company, a family owned company was booming and had just landed Walmart Stores as a customer. Now Walmart no longer sources from this company. Analysts say that the Chinese sweater industry was probably overbuilt, with about 6 cities in China claiming to produce more than 100 million sweaters annually. A wave of consolidation could boost efficiency, and bring pressures to innovate rater than compete only on price. And many Chinese economists, and policymakers think China has relied too much on cost-cutting and simple production models to increase exports. A researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences thinks such a high dependence on foreign trade is not good for China. For the US and Japan this researcher says that trade is equivalent to 20% of gross national product and by contrast for China trade is equivalent to an extreme of 75% of GNP. ...

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Crime by violent street gangs with whole sections of cities controlled by different groups, some a remnant of the guerilla wars, has fueled the migration crisis. Many people have left central American countries of San Salvador, Costa RIca, Guatemala, because of the crime and extortion experienced and the lack of law and order in these countries. Criminal violence by these gangs hurts business which leads to even fewer economic opportunities for young people. This leads to a steady flow of migrants to the borders of Mexico trying to enter the U.S. Experts say 95% of homicides in these central American countries are not tackled, with severe distrust of police.  There are fewer emigrants from Mexico as the economy has improved and population growth has slowed. Most of the faces of migrants are now from the Central American countries. A program is underway to create jobs skills in Honduras. But this a small effort in tackling a much bigger problem of violence, lack of economic opportunity, and the legacy of the civil wars in central America in an earlier period that have left whole sections of urban areas under control of former guerillas and militia turned into gangs.  ...

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Germany has shown that low tech contact tracing efforts work- no apps needed, a phone, a desktop computer with a centralized database, and most important the human relations skills of the person doing the calls. The  sensitivity to the situation facing each person being called, being able to talk to the person in the language they speak in a multilingual environment such as California, is shown here. A 40 person team operates in San Francisco consisting of public health officials, clinicians, medical students and librarians. They call the contacts of people with coronavirus, arrange tests, and as needed send packages of food and medicines to hotel rooms or homes. Every call is expected to last 15 minutes but all sorts of questions are handled.  English and Spanish are used. Here one of the persons doing the contact tracing says she does not use apps, just an open source software used in the fight against Ebola. Definitely low tech, no waiting, get going is the message to every city in the world. She says apps software such as what Google and Apple are putting out can tell you whether the person went to some place, but cannot tell you more about that person, cannot tell you about problems the person is having being tested, and how they are having difficulty providing for families. One of the big lessons from Germany and efforts such as this one in San Francisco, and in other places such as Paris, Singapore, Taiwan, is that there is a complex nature to contact tracing that cannot be solved by tech. In fact the best thing to do is to get started immediately, with a phone and a database on a computer, as long as you have a person who has the motivation and skills, empathy with people, a lot can be done. Waiting for apps is a dangerous waste of time is shown by the low tech German experience, and the experience in other places. Most important is starting immediately. The example shown here of working with migrant workers in contact tracing shows in the most vulnerable places it is these human relations skills that count, that no tech app can do. It requires detective skills to find out and get people to share their history of movements and contacts for 14 days . In Singapore crowded dormitories house 300,000 of 1.4 million migrant workers. Singapore using an app also but its use is secondary. Apps don't work in many situations but fail in the most critical situations such as these dormitories and other eccentric or atypical situations such as faced by South Korea with religious groups and gay communities, elderly people in Europe, that generate the worst dangers of spread and need to be cluster isolated quickly. Human contact tracing has a history of being an effective method and was used in China and South Korea during the 2003 SARS epidemic. More countries need to adopt the method used in Asia and in Germany, particularly Britain, the U.S., France and India. It is OK that Britain's NHS and India's national government with Aarogya Setu app have put out their own apps which balance privacy concerns with the need to act immediately and cover the entire country, but the hard slog of human contact tracing teams in each district is indispensable. This is why the former Health minister in Britain calls it Britain's national mission to do this. Speed is key- putting together teams across the country in every district from skilled volunteers or government workers, and pulling together the phone and a centralized database on a computer as basic equipment. The fact that this is easily doable and people with human skills needed can always be recruited as they have been in Germany- from public officials in local government who are less busy in lockdowns, medical students, clinicians, volunteers, people from different professions- makes it inexcusable not to learn from others experience and get going. Just Do It. You want to reopen business, professions, offices and public services- Just Do It, it makes this possible. You want to prevent spread of the virus- Just Do It, it makes this possible. You want to limit damage to the economy and get the recovery going- Just Do It, it makes this possible. People of all shades of opinion can agree on this- its the only thing that works, even when there is a lack of enough proper accurate testing. ...

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Collapsing sales for all automakers with GM results 45% decline in October 2008 over October 2007, and Toyota saw decline of 23%, Honda 28%, Ford 30%. One GM marketing executive said its like the lights were turned off in October. Dire consequences for the US and global economy. Toyota once seemingly immune to all this is affected not just here but back in Toyota City in Japan as the area around Nagoya is going into shrinking mode, and the Japanese economy will likely contract by 1% in 2009.

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Angela Merkel's handling of the coronavirus crisis wins praise from world leaders and leaders in Germany. Public opinion from Argentina and New Zealand to Britain and the U.S. gives her a lot of credit for the way she has tackled the situation. She now has the highest approval ratings in Germany since 2017, after a period of 2 years during which her popularity waned with the migrant crisis.  Much of her period in office was consumed by crises- the eurozone financial crisis, the migrant crisis, and now the coronavirus crisis. She brings her style of a scientist rationally looking at the situation, her experience, and her willingness to take bold positions under much criticism. Today even one of the premiers in Thuringia from the socialist Left party praises Merkel for being "pleasantly calm and goal oriented, particularly evident in the well structured video and telephone conferences." He says he prefers a leader "a quiet scientist" rather than "pompous men who as populists, dangerously ignore the facts of the danger." Merkel now assumes the 6 month presidency of the Council of the European Union on July 1.  Germany faces the future in rebuilding its economy, in rebuilding its infrastructure and public services, for now Merkel provides the leadership needed for this time. As Andreas Nick, vice president of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe puts it she is "always analytically scrutinizing and carefully weighing up, soberly Protestant and refreshingly unpretentious, a trained scientist with life experience in the downfall of an all too self-confident ideological system."   ...

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Paul Ryan, speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, wins the Republican primary in his house seat of Janesville, Wisconsin, defeating his challenger Nehlen, by 84% to 16%. The Republican nominee Donald Trump earlier had refused to endorse Ryan, and only reluctantly endorsed Ryan following the vice presidential nominee Mike Spence's endorsement of Ryan. Senator Susan Collins, senior Republican senator from Maine, joined other leading Republicans saying she would not support Trump. Paul Ryan has split with Trump on trade, immigration, Mexico, and other issues. He has insisted on decency and fairness in politics, and has won his seat in a working class town that had a closed GM plant in 2008 after Ryan voted to support rescue of the auto industry and worked hard to keep it open. Even though some of his policies have not directly helped working class families, he has won increasing support from his district as the economy recovered with unemployment down to 4.4% in Janesville, according to BLS for May 2016. Much of that support since 1998 has been based on Ryan's decency, faith and family. He made it a condition that he would go back on weekends to Wisconsin to stay in touch with people, when he accepted the position of Speaker of the House, and he listens to local concerns. Ryan said about the national discourse- "It's simple to prey on people's fears. That stuff sells, but it doesn't stick. It doesn't last. Most of all, it doesn't work." His job in today's deteriorated national discourse is as vital as ever, both for Wisconsin as representing the best in the national spirit, and for the country.   ...

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Amazon expands during the pandemic when retail on line delivery has helped people reduce trips to the grocery or retail stores. Amazon hired 427,000 people to expand its workforce to 1.2 million people by November 2020, 9 months into the pandemic. Almost doubling the employee workforce. These workers are mostly at warehouses, with some software engineers and hardware specialists. This includes hiring in India and Italy and is worldwide hiring. This does not include 100,000 temporary workers for the holidays, and 500,000 delivery drivers working for contractors.  Only hiring of 230,000 people by Walmart about 2 decades a ago in one year comes close. Walmart hired 180,000 people during the pandemic. Walmart has 2.2 million employees. With the expansion underway Amazon looks to become the largest private employer in the world in 2 years, say experts.  Amazon pay is $15 an hour after an increase of $2 recently. Its coronavirus safety practices have been upgraded after early criticism in April and May. Recent expansion in Italy and in India are also part of worldwide expansion after Walmart has pulled back from its worldwide expansion. This also shows how quickly major aspects of life are changing during the pandemic as some companies in online business are becoming more prominent than others. Target and Walmart have also increased in size. Best Buy has changed its focus with its conversion into a company that leads with personal service in online plus store hybrid retail and a focus on seniors and older people for healthcare service and product delivery. Companies are changing the way they run or getting a new life in remaking their business. This is also a time when other aspects of business such as social media are becoming evident. Subtle aspects such as reports of higher rates of mental depression through use of social media platforms. There is also the awareness that information technology companies in Silicon Valley generate most of their money in advertising and this advertising of $100 billion is only a small fraction of the $12 trillion U.S. economy. Should Silicon Valley based in California decide priorities on where capital allocation should go through the part it plays in moving startups based less on America's priorities than other considerations. Healthcare, education, cities, and infrastructure have not received funding they need and capital allocation by financial markets has failed the American people, as it has failed in Europe and other parts of the world for similar reasons. This has hit hard communities and people across the U.S. and Europe and also in Latin America, Africa and Asia, with the loss of manufacturing to China and other countries from the U.S. India and Europe. ...

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US Business has considerable apprehension about the former president in 2024 compared to its willingness to consider Trump in 2016. At the time executives from investment bank Goldman Sachs and heads of oil companies joined the Trump administration. This time US business and corporate interests are apprehensive about becoming the target of a tweet they might find the next morning under a Trump administration. They are not supportive of student loan forgiveness, but when it comes to the CHIPS and Science Act they see president Biden as effective and helping industry. Business leaders have a negative view on the Trump effort through appointment of 3 Supreme Court Justices of overturning decades old rights of women on abortion, and on this issue alone many will support Harris-Walz, overriding other concerns they might have. The visions of Harris and Trump are so vastly different with one calling climate change a hoax and hyping up social issues and infrastructure needs without any record of delivery when in office, and the other a strong position on climate change, wages and income, delivering on infrastructure and CHIPS that US Business. The result is that it leaves US Business with no better option in 2024 than to support the vision  that takes America forward. There are different sections of the business community which have different priorities.  Silicon Valley, and oil, pharmaceuticals because it profits most from light regulation which brings with it social costs is a special issue not addressed here. Other business, banking, automobiles, and a range of other industries have other priorities yet also see the need for the economy and the US to move forward with a different vision than one that simply ignores climate change, and fails to address child care, child poverty, wide disparities in wealth, and other issues facing of wages, cost of living facing most Americans.  ...

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Hispanic immigrants make up a big part of the construction industry and a big part of industries like carpet making in Georgia. This has been hit hard and jobless rate for Hispanics is 6.9% according to the Labor Department up from 5.5% in April 2007. States with expandig Hispanic populations like Florida, California, Georgia and Nevada are hit hard by Hispanic job losses. Overall the jobless rate has gone up from 4.5% last year to 5% during th same periodand when one takes out the Hispanic component the jobless rate is down much less, which also tell us something about why the pace of the economic downturn is felt less among the whites and the rest of the population, because the construction industry got hit the worst and the Hispanics especially immigrants who dominate the construction industry are taking the brunt of it. The subprime story plays up here as well. From 1994 to 2006 the rate of Hispanic homeownership climbed to 50% frm 41% according to census data, at a rate more than double for the increase amon non-Hispanics. By 2006 47% of the loans issued for home purchases by Hispanics were subprime or loans with poor credit histories, double the rate for non-Hispanic whites, according to a paper by the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, only exceeded by African Americans. In 2006 homeownership fell among Hispanics and one in 12 mortgages made to Latino households in 2005 and 2006 is likely to fail according to Catherine Singley, a policy fellow at the National Council of La Raza, an advocacy group in Washington. Georgia has one of the heavy concentration of new Latino immgrants, with a 70% increase in the state's Hispanic population between 2000 and 2007, according to census data. From one fifth of the construction work force in 2000 Hispanics made up one third by 2006 according to the Economic Policy Institute. Among foreign born Hispanics construction was responsible for 46% of the growth in employment from 2004 to 2006 according to Rakesh Kochhar, an econist at the Pew Hispanic Center, which tells us that the new Latino immigrants dominated the construction industry in places like Atlanta and in the rest of the country and are now getting hit the worst. Not only construction but industries that parallel the growth in construction like carpet making based in Dalton, Georgia, were dominated by Latino immigrants, so that as construction fell these towns and Latinos there are hit hardest. Investment manager El-Erian of Pimco points to employment as the key the critical thing to watch for the next 6 months and its useful to see that unemployment has increased by about half a percentage point to 5% from 4.5% April 2006 to April 2007 according to Labor Department data. As most of this unemployment has probably been taken up by the new Latino immigrants to the USA its probably not changed much excluding that component, which is possibly why the economy has not felt like it is in a recession when all around the signs of recession or what causes a recession are evident around us. Another way to say this is that there are built in hidden mechanisms of the American economy in its present form such as immigration, and possibly others that act as delay mechanisms that throw the recessionary impact back by anywhere from 6-18 months depending on how they operate and can blind one about the reality of oncoming storms. This was to be seen in 2005 for the economy with consumption spending and mortgage industry excesses, and which is why Pimco decided in 2005 at its spring meeting, that the big secular story was about the economic downturn. It actually took until 2007 for this to occur because of similiar things to what we are seeing now in terms of recessionary pain, then the new structured investment vehicles and other ingenious innovations in the mortgage industry may have extended the boom and delayed the economic downturn being felt till 2007. There is a lot of grief among Hispanic people. The numbers tell the story. For the 19 million Latino immigrants in the USA...

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Chrysler's second quarter loss of $172 million, follows a first quarter loss of $197 million. Operating profit for the second quarter was $183 million, compared to $143 million in the first quarter. Chrysler's forecast is to breakeven on sales between $40-45 billion. Revenue was up by 8.2% in the second quarter to $10.5 billion. Main problem Chrysler faces is an old product lineup. A slowdown in the economy in the second half of 2010 and in 2011 could hurt Chrysler more than the other automakers. Chrysler has available cash of $7.84 billion and additional $2.3 billion available from U.S. Treasury and Canadian government loan agreements.

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Meltzer points to the huge impact on wages in the U.S. from the millions of workers added to the global economy- as people from India, China and other developing countries competed for the same jobs as American workers- as a principal cause for increasing income inequality. The wages of the one percent were insulated from this and actually benefitted in the case of banking and finance. Current pricing practices in health care insulated the medical and hospital related professions. The effects of the global financial crisis- loss of construction jobs, foreclosures, and effects on savings hit the middle class and working classes hard, something Meltzer overlooks.

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China is not experiencing high unemployment in 2012 the way it did in 2009. The lower growth rate of 7-8% is not having an adverse impact on unemployment. This makes it possible for the stimulus this time to be much smaller. There is rising upward pressure on wages. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, CEIC and WSJ, average annual wages at private sector manufacturing companies in current U.S. dollars was up 5% in 2009, 16% in 2010, and 20% in 2011. This is being encouraged by the government as China gradually shifts its economy towards higher domestic consumption and better standards of living for workers. Hon Hai Precision Industry Company added 82,000 workers in China in 2011. Salaries at the Shenzen plant were 2200 yuan or $345 a month in February 2012, an increase of 10%. An April survey by Manpower Group showed that a majority of companies will increase workers or hold employment stable, only 3% of companies will have job cuts. Demographic changes are also playing a part-with fewer people in the 15-19 age range, dropping from 120 million in 2005 to 95 million in 2015, according to UN estimates. The number of migrant workers remains steady at 252 million in 2012, up 4% from 242 million in 2010, according to the Bureau of National Statistics....

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Japan's acute shortage of labor has even spread to the government sector says this report in DW.com. Japan's aging population means a growing need for immigrants from Vietnam and other countries. Nursing, elderly care had shortages which have spread to construction and delivery business, taxis, forestry companies and train operators. Many jobs remain unfilled. It is a situation the US may also experience in a few years as it is feeling the effects of shortages of workers in industries such as hospitality. NK Logisitics Research estimate is that 34% of goods will remain undelivered by 2030 because of lack of transport workers, that is 940 million tons of goods undelivered every year. Already taxi drivers have shrunk by 40% from the peak in 2009. Japan's immigration policy planned for an influx of 345,000 skilled workers over 5 years in 2019 but this came a bit late as the pandemic delayed the influx. Now it has a new urgency. Even with the influx of new immigrants Germany has 1.6 million jobs unfilled according to DW.com citing research in an accompanying article on German workers in today's Lyrarc.com. The US needs an organized program of immigration to attract foreign workers yet the influx from Venezuela of mostly middle class educated people into the US through  events no one had foreseen or expected may years from now be seen as meeting the needs of sectors in the American economy that needs good workers, in the same way that Japan and Germany see their economies and worker shortages. ...