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The new oil law allowing foreign oil companies to compete with Pemex passes the Senate in Mexico and now goes to the lower house. The legislation removes the 4 oil worker union's representatives from the 15 person Board of Pemex. The oil law now leaves only a 10 member board- five appointed by the government and five independent members approved by the Senate. Because past opening of investment by the private sector in state owned railways and telecom sectors has led to wealth passing into the hands of a few business owners and worsening competitiveness, there is concern in Mexico about how this law will be implemented so that it benefits Mexico and Mexicans through foreign investment in the oil industry. Leftist parties are pushing a bill in the lower house to allow a referendum on the oil law by 2015 if 1.6 million signatures are collected. Oil experts point to foreign investment in the Mexican oil industry as further enhancing the prospects of North American oil production in comparison to the position of Middle East oil producers, because of Mexico's large shale oil and gas reserves and the prospects for new exploration in deep waters. ...

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Olaf Scholz was elected chancellor by Germany's parliament on December 8. Robert Habeck of the Greens party is vice chancellor and heads a new ministry that combines the economy ministry with ministry for climate. This brings Germany and the European Union new leadership with plans to modernize German and European economies, and build a stronger relationship with the US.

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Paul Krugman says in the long run Brexit is not catastrophic for Britain with a loss of 2-4% of GDP and affecting incomes. He compares it to Canada and the U.S. before the North American trade agreement, Canada's economy still functioned decently.  The problem is more in the short run as no border infrastructure is in place and this is where a bigger hit is feared in the disruption of the flow of goods.

Krugman also cautions people in the European Union who do not see the impact on the EU even though it is relatively smaller than the larger impact on Britain.

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Friedrich Merz quit Black Rock investment firm recently to head back into politics of the CDU. During the years after 2000 Merz was eclipsed by Angela Merkel for leadership of the CDU. He is known for jobs he has done in the finance sector including privatization of state bank WestLB.

Another candidate for leadership is Peter Altmaier, a close associate of Merkel who has assisted her throughout her terms in office. He worked for the European Union before entering the Bundestag in 1994. 

Jens Spahn, 39 years old, is health minister and entered the Bundestag in 2002. He is also a top candidate for the CDU.

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Martin Fackler talks to Yasuhiro Nakasone, former LDP leader and prime minister during the Reagan days. He gives his views on improving the relationship with the U.S., advice to prime minister Yukio Hatoyama on his goal of building a more equal relationship with the U.S., the issues surrounding the U.S. base in Okinawa. He says Hatoyama should have a relaxed conversation with president Obama, over dinner and after dinner. Not one or two hours but much longer and increased contact with much time as possible spent together to increase rapport. He points to a picture of him and Reagan in windbreakers walking through the woods in Camp David as an example of the trust needed to be built in the U.S.-Japan relationship. Nakasone once described Japan as an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" in the Cold War with the Soviet Union. Nakasone does not think the LDP dominance was a good thing and says the DPJ's rise and the LDP voted out of power was good for Japan. His view is that Japan can become more equal by being closer to the U.S. than becoming apart from it. An approach he took by being less deferential than his predecessors at summit meetings, but at the same time working closely with the U.S. Nakasone says Hatoyama is not doing this by showing he values Japan's relationship with China more than its relationship with the U.S. These remarks he describes as not being prudent, and do not reflect the security alliance wih the U.S. and the shared values of a liberal democracy. Okinawa and other problems can be resolved through talking between partners, friendly relations and a relationship built on trust between leaders....

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President Trump says the terms set in the deal Boris Johnson negotiated with the European Union preclude any deal with the U.S. He says after looking at the agreement that "we can't make a trade deal with the UK."  Trump made similar comments for prime minister Theresa May when he said that May's strategy for Brexit would "kill" any chance of a trade deal with the U.S. Mr. Boris Johnson, UK prime minister, has promised to negotiate a free trade agreement with the U.S. after delivering Brexit. A separate report in DW.com showed that countries with large potential in trade for Britain such as India are also less likely to sign a deal with Britain because the EU is a much larger trading partner with India. This could have an effect on Mr. Johnson's election campaign.

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The European Union governments are finding it increasingly difficult to salvage the Iran nuclear deal and lifting of sanctions. European governments rejected Iran's 60 day ultimatum to help circumvent U.S. Trump administration sanctions. The U.S. sanctions have already led to Iran's oil export to drop from 2.5 million barrels a day to 1 million. Lost shipments have cost Iran $10 billion hurting its economy. Initially European nations France and Germany hoped to keep the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by working with Iran, but this has become increasingly difficult with the Trump administration increasing sanctions including limiting access to U.S. markets for nations that do not cooperate with U.S. policy. The U.S. pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal and now it looks like the Europeans are faced with a difficult choice in continuing to work with Iran.

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Ed Miliband's victory over his brother David for the Labor party leadership. The unions support Ed Miliband. He tries to move labor to the centre by saying he supports cuts and Labor woulld have made cuts also, only differing on the manner and the size of the cuts.

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There is a sense of cognitive dissonance in the states of former East Germany, known as the GDR or German Democratic Republic in the Soviet Union period from 1950's to 1990. The 5 states that formed the GDR continued to build close ties with Russia after the fall of the Berlin Wall, in the perception that this would build good long term relations. The crisis in Ukraine with border states of the Soviet Union opting in favor of close ties with the European Union and not Russia have disrupted the economic relations between the Federal Republic of Germany and Russia. As long as Russia needed the economic ties to build its economy and standard of living the political issues posed by NATO expansion and EU expansion were set aside by Putin and political parties within Russia. The very ties that were supposed to usher in an era of peace in Europe helped strengthen the Russian and Chinese economies. Leading to a point where these two economies were strong enough by 2021 in the midst of the waning pandemic to  assert themselves on political issues where serious differences existed such as expansion of NATO and Taiwan. When the economic relations such as making China a manufacturing powerhouse  was the path taken by American and European business in 1990's, business interests were focused on the declining quality and high wages demanded by unions and workers in the US and Germany. This could be personally witnessed at Apple's factory in Colorado Springs where quality was failing badly in the 1990's. Apple when Steve Jobs returned in 1997 adopted a China manufacturing strategy when its manufacturing operations in the US failed to deliver the quality and cost structure needed for it to expand. The high margins with low costs of manufacturing in China was the strategy adopted by Steve Jobs to compete with Microsoft and turbocharge its expansion. Soon other companies followed. A similar process happened in economic ties with Russia on a smaller scale. Two decades of such expansion whittled down American manufacturing, hurt American workers, hurt European manufacturing and European workers.  This process could not continue- yellow vest protests in France, the protest vote in US midwestern states in recent elections, the protest votes in German elections and fragmentation of parties, made this clear. The US imposed trade tariffs on Chinese products and moved to restrict flow of technologies to China under the Trump administration, accelerated by the Biden administration. President Xi was once of the view that China's ties with the US were important "thousand fold" in the period as late as 2010. Yet this lopsided trade relationship was not beneficial to American workers or American interests as a technologically advanced leader. It is true that American workers and engineers at Apple had failed to ensure American quality competitiveness in the 1980's into 1990's, yet no advanced country or its business can come up with a false narrative that cedes its manufacturing leadership and jobs for the working class of its country. That false narrative is being challenged today by Mr. Biden, Mr. Scholz, and all American and German political parties, and by Mr. Modi with Atman Nirbhar Bharat for local manufacturing. The integration one sees of the port of Hamburg as Chinese export hub with China's economy is one aspect of what has happened. A new leadership is taking its place in Europe and in America that sees clearly the false narrative. The visit of the new Danish prime minister to India is the beginning of the effort to set up a new logistics relationship with South and South East Asia, as Denmark's Maersk is a world leader in shipping logistics for exports and manufacturing. The planned Noida logistics center outside of New Delhi under Gati Shakti integrated development is part of the change happening today as a new supply chain is being built. The unwinding of the one sided trade relationship with China, and its related relationship on energy with Russia, led to the changing perception in Russia and China of the value of the relationship. Political relations superseded economic and cultural relations during Putin's second phase and Xi's second phase with assertive attitudes on NATO, and on Hong Kong, Taiwan under Xi and Putin 2.0. As could be expected Germany and the US were caught flat footed as leaders who were cast in the mold of Putin as a Soviet representative in Dresden, and Xi with his father leading the Communist struggle in the 1930's and 1940's against Chiangkaishek, acted in ways that reflected the Soviet period. Chiang left for Taiwan in 1948 when Mao-tse-tung setup the People's Republic of China. Taiwan and Hong Kong remained important in the perceptions of Xi 2.0, in the effort to build "China Dream" and erase last vestiges of what in Soviet times were seen as western colonialism. US and EU particularly Business and the new IT telecom Business failed to grasp these matters, and historical events such as the opium wars of the 1850's. Business and cultural interests lacked both the inclination to learn and the knowledge of these events in Chinese history and its relations with colonial powers Britain and Japan, and also Russia. In 1900 the Boxer rebellion against ceding Chinese ports to colonial powers Britain, Japan, Russia, ended with permanent colonial settlements in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Tsingtao, other Chinese ports. Chinese rejuvenation in the mind of leaders such as Xi from the second generation of Communist leadership, means putting this behind, leading to the action taken in Hong Kong. In some ways as some observers have commented it is as much a problem of the sluggishness of American and European thinking, particularly business interests including in Taiwan, post British Hong Kong, and ignorance of recent Chinese history which was mistakenly thought not to exist or forgotten. This is as much of a problem as the action taken by Putin and moves by Xi Jinping. The great democracies such as India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, were ignored as American and European business interests integrated the American and German economies with China's. In terms of population the population of these regions and related parts of South East Asia such as Malaysia and Vietnam which have a shared cultural history is about 1.5 times the population of China. Travelling through the parts of India's largest state Uttar Pradesh, an Madhya Pradesh one finds how much American and European business interests have failed both their own interests, their own workers and failed the great democracies of the world, by not only not investing in the democracies of Asia, and also of Africa and Latin America and bought into a narrative of China which no longer holds true and may never have been true all along. This is starkly evident in a once in a century pandemic in these great democracies of the world. These democracies have been left to fend for themselves during the pandemic and their leaders facing false narratives in the media such as the BBC and American media outlets even on issues such as vaccination of the largest part of the world's people.           ...

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Ukraine under President Yushchenko joined the WTO, and will now work towards a trade agreement with the European Union, which should help raise living standards in this country of 46 million people still lagging behind other Eastern European countries like Poland in economic conditions. Yushchenko will support membership in the WTO for Russia, and hopes to use the dispute settling mechanisms of the WTO to settle disputes with Russia over steel, sugar and dairy products. Ukraine is the largest country in the former Soviet Union, making this one more step towards bringing Eastern European countries into trade and commercial relationships with the rest of Europe. And it provides another manufacturing location for companies in Western Europe, if wages rise significantly in Poland and the Czech Republic.

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The Washington Post editorial board warns against repeating the mistake made by president Obama of an hasty withdrawal from trouble spots in the Middle East. Many of the negative events in 2014-2017 were a result of a lack of action where needed or hasty withdrawal leading to the refugee crisis in both Syria and the European Union, and an increase in terrorism, This also led to the rise of extreme politics in many countries, and outside interventions that have worsened the situation.

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As the U.S. economy continues to gain in job growth with unemployment at 3.8% in May 2018, wage gains remain low. Wage growth over the past year is about 2.7%. Labor participation rate is at 62.7%. Reasons given for low wage growth are the lack of wage increases for people who stay at their current jobs, the digital disruption lowering wages, decline of union bargaining, and low productivity growth. This gives the Federal Reserve more room to increase interest rates gradually.

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Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, a senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, leads the EuroFuture Project. Here he offers his ideas of the dilemmas facing German leaders in agreeing to letting the European Central Bank take a larger role of supporting the bonds of Italy, Portugal and Spain. He says Germans are seeing a contradiction between European demands for German leadership and not wanting to be led by Germany or perceiving Germany as a hegemon. Brockhoff says Germans have never in the postwar period wanted to or learned to exercize continental leadership. He recounts the postwar period when Germans were content with the deutsche mark, and limited their expression of national pride to the deutsche mark. Giving up the deutsche mark was part of the deal for reunification of the two Germanys, a surrender of economic sovereignty for the sake of a larger integration into Europe. He says that even though the arguments are framed in terms of orthodox economics, economic nationalists who never really wanted to give up the deutsche mark are the core of the opposition to the common issue of eurozone bonds. The German position is to go back to the framework of principles for economic and monetary union and tighten the rules for spending and taxes, something that is good in the long run, but does not work in the short run with shrinking economies from austerity programs and nervous markets. The Merkel government's resolution of this crisis is to set new fiscal rules for the eurozone, and either move in the direction of letting the ECB play a larger role, or support such a move. What is not clear is whether the government will survive the next election taking on this leadership role in Europe, or a revolt in the Christian Democratic party....

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Germany temporarily reintroduced border controls at the Austrian border on September 13, 2015, and supended rail service to Austria by Deutsche Bahn for 12 hours. About 40,000 migrants were expected to Germany on the weekend of September 12-13, making it hard for Germany to cope in such a short time. Economics Minister Sigmar Gabriel told newspaper Der Tagesspiegel "Europe's idleness in the migrant crisis is starting to push Germany close to its limits." This was also meant to send a message to Eastern European countries Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, that have resisted cooperation in accepting refugees that the Schengen Agreement itself was at stake. The Schengen Agreement of 1985 is one of the key achievements for European unity by allowing free movement without passports within the 26 countries of the European Union. Germany's Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere, described the move for border controls as a "signal to Europe that the German government will live up to its humanitarian responsibility, but the burden connected with the large number of refugees must be distributed in solidarity throughout Europe." A provision in the Schengen Agreement allows for border controls to be temporarily reintroduced in a emergency situation. ...

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A look at the views of Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia and Strobe Talbott, a State Department advisor, on how the Obama administration missed signals of a more assertive policy from Russia during the period Medvedev was president. At the time Medvedev offered a softer tone from Russia and the U.S. extended cooperation. With the return of Putin as president for a second term, his more strident views on the role of Russia in the world following the collapse of the Soviet Union have emerged, especially in tems of policies in Syria and Ukraine.

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This editorial in the New York Times is strongly critical of former president Barack Obama for accepting $400,000 in speaking fees from Wall Street for a single speech. It says the news is causing people to question the ideas and words presented by Obama in his books about the dangers of losing sight of the interests of ordinary people. It gives the impression says the NYT, that Obama is cashing in like everybody else, and that his talk was empty. The editorial says the millions raised by Hillary Clinton led to her defeat in the election. Obama is reported to plan a foundation with the work of training a new generation of political leaders. This NYT editorial says it would be better to stay true to vision and purpose, to walk the talk for president Obama, especially now that a recent poll shows two thirds of voters, including about half of Democrats say that the Democratic Party is out of touch with the interests of the American People. By associating this closely with wealthy donors leading Democrats contributed to this. During a period when some of the remarkable achievements of the last fifty years such as the European Union are being called into question, when ordinary working people, young people and older people are struggling, this is all the more a tone deaf approach by politicians. The idea of helping train a new generation of political leaders through a foundation sounds bizarre in this context, and seems to suggest politicians believe there is always a solution through marketing their audacity and money.   ...

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European Union exports toChina, India and Southeast Asia rose 56% to 228 billion euros between 2000 and 2007, with CHina and India accounting for 44% of that. Now that engine of growth for European companies is about to stall.

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This report by Jia Lynn Yang in NYT covers only the Coolidge period and the JFK period ignoring the wider trend since the 1850's when immigration from Asia to the US was discouraged. The laws limiting Japanese, Chinese and Indian immigrants were put in place long before 1924 by the 1890's. Japan agreed to limit immigration to the US under an agreement with the US after 1900. China was undergoing a transition under the Boxer Rebellion and upheaval in government in the period after 1900, India was part of Britain's colonial Empire.It does not mention that Chinese laborers helped do the dangerous work to build the railroads east to west. It also ignores the immigration from Mexico which was a special case in immigration because of Mexico's relationship along the border, first with the Mexican American War that achieved Jefferson's idea of a continental nation coast to coast. Mexico was a source of labor for US agriculture in the 1930's and 1940's when Asian immigration was severely constrained. When Gen. Eisenhower won the election in 1952 immigration policy was on the agenda, in fact Truman had a commission look at it by 1950. Operation Wetback was launched by Eisenhower and returned millions of Mexican migrants back to Mexico. Fearing the lack of farm help for Mexican agriculture Mexican agricultural interests supported the return of migrants. All this is left out by Lynn Yang. For almost a century Asian immigration was discouraged till JFK with experience in Asia during the war looked at Asian immigration to US differently passing new legislation to support this in the JFK/LBJ terms as president. In this sense the operations under DJT at the Border  and in the US in 2025-2026 are similar to what happened under Operation Wetback under a popular president Eisenhower, after the surge in Mexican migration adding millions of migrants to the US population in the 1930's and 1940's. A greater glimpse of the US can only be imagined if after the early immigration and discovery of the continent by the Spanish, the French and the British by 1600, the continent had not been unified first by the war of 1756-1763 with the French and Indian Wars creating the original 13 British colonies before the War of Independence in 1776, and the expansion to Spanish/Mexican territory to the West and South including California, Texas and Florida in the Mexican American War of 1846-48. In that situation there would be five sectors in America- British, Spanish, French, Mexican and American. The US could not have advanced as an industrial power divided in this way and would not have attracted immigrants from Europe the away it did. If it was split into two Southern confederacy and Northern Union states it would also have led to a similar situation. There would be conflict. It is only divine intervention and the courage and ideas of Jefferson and Washington, the work of president Polk, the leadership of Lincoln, and the industrial revolution on a large scale of one Nation in peace for most of the 19th century, that it became a haven for immigrants from a troubled Europe, a struggling Asia and Mexico. ...

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Harris pragmatic approach and willingness to try new solutions applies to Michigan- to find ways to protect union jobs and make the transition to clean cars in a way that increases wages and jobs and creates a bright future for the auto industry. Letting other countries manufacture EV's would hand over the manufacturing technologies to say China and lead to a future collapse of the auto industry in Michigan. This is why there is a transition period which is flexible to 2030 or even 2034, and the curve is for more gains in EV sales in the latter years as prices come down and technology improves. At every step of the way business presents unique challenges, and FDR/Harris "persistent bold experimentation" is part of the answer as China's BYD has come up with a better cheaper in house battery that means it can export EV's at lower prices- the US can't as yet. Electric vehicles sales are plateauing in 2024 growing from 7.4% to 7.8%. The former president describes an EV mandate. No EV mandate for all cars to be electric exists. The action taken by president Biden is for all cars to meet greenhouse gas emission targets that would require 50 percent of cars to be electric vehicles by 2030. Michigan as the home of the auto industry is heavily influenced by the auto industry. Biden walked the picket line here last year to support a UAW strike for higher wages after decades of concessions by workers that reduced wages to near the poverty level for families.  Harris pragmatic approach and willingness to try new solutions applies to Michigan- to find ways to protect union jobs and make the transition to clean cars in a way that increases wages and jobs and creates a bright future for the auto industry. Letting other countries manufacture EV's would hand over the manufacturing technologies to say China and lead to a future collapse of the auto industry in Michigan. This is why there is a transition period which is flexible to 2030 or even 2034 an the curve is for more gains in EV sales in the latter years as prices come down and technology improves. At every step of the way business presents unique challenges and innovation is part of the answer as China's BYD has come up with a better in house battery that means it can export EV's- the US can't as yet. ...

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Italy's prime minister, Mario Monti, in an interview with Britain's Guardian newspaper, June 22, 2012, says the detailed blueprint for action will not come out of the meetings in Rome of European leaders at the end of June. But he added: "there will be some strong elements and a short road, I hope, short, a few months, to get from there to the overall project." Separately Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, said after meeting European financial leaders in Luxembourg: "A determined and forceful move towards complete European monetary union should be reaffirmed in order to restore faith. At the moment, the viability of the European monetary system is questioned." Monti is a former senior EU official, and Christine Lagarde was France's finance minister under president Sarkozy. The difference now compared to meetings in 2010, is the changes in France, Italy, and Spain, and at the IMF, with new leaders Hollande in France, Monti in Italy, and Rajoy in Spain, and Lagarde at the IMF, and a new context in that the austerity policies by themselves are seen as failing to produce the desired results. A further change in the dynamic is the win by Social Democrats in regional elections in Germany and Hollande opening a dialogue with the German Social Democrats. The dialogue with Merkel has been enhanced by appointing seasoned EU officials in key positions in the Hollande administration in anticipation of a tighter fiscal union in the EU....

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China's government is putting 10 Airbus orders for A380 superjumbo jets by Hong Kong Airlines, and an additional 35 Airbus A330 widebody planes on hold, in response to eforts by the European Union to enforce carbon dioxide emission fees under its ETS system.

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The Journal's interview with Jose Manuel Barroso, president of the EUropean Union. Barroso says the EU will expect Greece to honor committments it has made. The message being conveyed was that Greece should not expect flexibility beyond some tweaking of the agreements.

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Alexander Kudascheff of the DW.com says in this editorial opinion that the secular republic of Kemal Ataturk is about to become an Islamic autocracy. Kudascheff cites a number of reasons why the failed coup seems partly improbable such as it being led by the Air Force and Erdogan being able to fly back to Istanbul, not cutting communications,  and the intelligence agencies not having earlier knowledge about it. The overreaction to what is seen as a coup that was put down so quickly raises questions about the coup itself, says DW.com. It points out that Turkey now being admitted to the European Union now seems less probable than ever. The 3 month emergency is also seen with much skepticism. The coup and Erdogan's overeaction are a big negative event for Turkey-Eu relations.

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Britain's prime minister spent 3 nights in intensive care for coronavirus. He said the "development of a vaccine is the most urgent shared endeavor of our lifetimes." He will confirm Britain's pledge of 388 million pounds for vaccine research, tests and treatments, part of 744 million pounds to the the global effort against coronavirus. "The more we pull together and share our research the faster our scientists will succeed."

An online pledging conference will take place on Monday as part of the vaccine fundraising drive of the European Union and other countries. The initiative from the EU and president of the EU Ursula von der Leyen, is to raise 7.5 billion euros for vaccine research and development of a vaccine for coronavirus. It has the support of Britain, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Norway, Japan, Canada, and other countries. The month long investment drive will go on till the Global Vaccine Summit on June 4.