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After hurricane Helene only about 10% of FEMA workers are available for Hurricane Milton headed towards the Tampa Bay Area at 175 miles per hour.

Christopher Flavelle of NYT  points out FEMA desperately needs more funding and staff as it is responding simultaneously to many disasters. The full effects of climate change in more and more natural disasters all across the US have not been taken into account for the added funding and staffing needed. In this situation FEMA is spread thin causing other problems such as attrition and burnout and unfilled positions.

The Government Accountability Office report found in 2023 that 35% of FEMA's positions were unfilled, because of “rising disaster activity during the year, which increased burnout and employee attrition.”

There are also lot of people who are out of work in disaster areas who can be pulled in for disaster work.  

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There is much uncertainty about the federal elections in Germany in 2025. Four years back in 2021 Olaf Scholz had 51% of people polled saying he would make a good chancellor. This is down to 26% in Feb 2025. Merz of CDU is at 32% and Habeck of Greens at 25%. The Greens are holding onto 14% similar to 2021 with the SPD Social Democrats of Scholz at a low of 18% down from 25% in 2021. CDU is at 32% compared to 24% in 2021. AFD moving from 11% in 2021 to 21%. The immigration issue and the weak economy with the Ukraine war has hit SPD hard. The Scholz coalition also failed to invest in the economy with the FDP of Finance Minister Lindner acting as a brake on needed investment in infrastructure. The result is that the German economy burdened with higher costs for energy and a faltering auto industry is showing zero growth. The most likely outcome is a CDU coalition with the Greens and the SPD with Merz as chancellor. There is athreshold for gettinginto parliament of 4%. At this time a breakaway faction of Left parties of Wagenknecht and the FDP are both polling below 4%. The AfD is at 21% and hoping to gain from the immigration issue. Much of the uncertaintly comes from 18% of voters not planning to vote, and the 13% of voters who have not made up their mind yet and will do so on election day. ...

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Two way trade is expanding at 35% for the last 5 years to $15 billion. A new goal is being set for expanding it to $50 billion by 2010. Senior executives of big Chinese infrastructure companies are involved and the exchange is at the highest level, with Bo Xilai, Commerce Minister of China, heading a 200 member delegation to New Delhi. This includes senior executives of Shanghai Electric Power Generation Group, ZTE Corp, and China Corporation Bank. US- India trade growth goals were set by President Bush in a recent visit. With Bo's visit China- India trade growth goals are being set on the same scale. Bo said China and India can learn a lot from each other- "China has a lot to offer in infrastructure development to India and we can learn about developing software, information technology, and how to improve the services sector."

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Russia's government lowers its forecast for GDP growth in 2013 to 1.8%. Like other emerging markets Russia is facing a slowdown in economc growth. Government forecasts are for 3% growth for 2014 and 2015. About 50% of revenues in the budget come from oil exports and Russia is still dependent on higher oil prices. The budget is likely to have a 1% of GDP deficit in 2015. President Putin is not inclined to run a large deficit to increase growth. Budget revenues are expected to come lower for 2014 and 2015 by 3.3% and 6.9% compared to forecasts. Finance ministry policy is for hiking taxes on mineral extraction 16% by 2015, and increasing excise taxes on cigarettes and alcohol. State run firms will be asked to pay out 35% of profits as dividends compared to the current 25%, providing $39 billion from this action, according to the Finance ministry.

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Electricity prices are regulated in Spain and the companies are allowed to charge less than the cost of producing electricity. Prices have fallen in real terms by 30% in the past 10 years. The cumulative deficit from this has now reached 14 billion euros according to the Spanish National Energy Commission. But the present Spanish government is in a bind because just to stop the deficit from increasing would require price increases of 20% according to the Spanish power industryassociation Unesa. Paying off the deficit in the next 15 years would require price increases of 35%.

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New rules for foreign direct investment in India will allow foreign multibrand retailers to own upto 51% of joint ventures in India. Rules set earlier allowed foreign retailers like Wal-Mart to only setup wholesale joint ventures. The move by the Indian government lets Wal-Mart, Carrefour, Metro Group and other retailers open supermarkets. The rules were also changed to allow 100% ownership for single brand retailers such as Nike stores. Prior rules limited single brand retailers to 51% ownership. This is a major step because of the growth in the Indian retail market, and the small portion of the overall market that is occupied by large retail chains with well developed supply chain management. Technopak Advisors Pvt. Ltd, a consulting firm in New Delhi, estimates that the Indian retail market has sales of about $470 billion a year, with only about 5% of this or $27 billion in modern organized retail operations. In the five year period 2012-2016 sales are expected to grow to $675 billion, with $85 billion coming from organized retail. Companies with operations in India that are expected to expand operations include Bharti Wal-Mart, Tesco which has a agreement with Tata Group's Star Bazaar stores, Germany's Metro Group AG. according to these numbers, even with competition from the organized large stores, smaller stores will still occupy 88% compared to 95% of the retail space in 2016. And the growth in the overall market means that the smaller mom and pop type stores will still have growth from $443 billion today to $590 billion in 2016. A government backed study by ICRIER shows that smaller stores lose about 23% of sales in the first year, but recover quickly in following years because of growth in the overall market. The introduction of modern supply chain management, modern refrigeration methods, and large investments by leading global retailers is likely to change the way food and other products are stored and marketed, a revolutionary change for India where these methods and investments lag far behind the developed world. For this reason this may give major impetus to modernizing the Indian economy....

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One cocoa pod gives enough cocoa for one chocolate bar. Cocoa farms in Ghana and Ivory Coast are the world's largest producers of cocoa. Production declined in 2024 by about 25% in the two countries from bad weather with rain in the dry season and not enough rain in the west season. To protect farmers both West African countries decided to give farmers a fixed price for their cocoa. With surging prices farmers do not get to benefit from the higher price. Government fertilizer support is lacking.

With buyers in Europe insisting that no trees get cut on forested land for new farming, farmers are restricted to their old plots and have to take out old trees which costs more. As a result of these factors cocoa farms are shifting to other crops including palm oil in Ghana.

Other countries in West Africa including Cameroon and Nigeria are also producing cocoa. Outside of this region Ecuador and Brazil also produce cocoa.

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Prime minister Renzi of Italy resigns after defeat in a referendum to change the constitution. Renzi had said he would resign if there was a "no" vote on constitutional changes to make it possible to pass further reforms. The results show the "yes" vote with about 41% of the vote, and 59% saying "no." About 65% of 47 million registered voters voted. The referendum called for cutting the size of the upper house Senate eliminating some constitutional bodies, and increasing powers at the federal level. Renzi may have made the mistake of making the vote for or against constitutional change a vote for his democratic left party, and not understanding the depth of public skepticism of established parties. Parties such as 5 Star M5S  have appealed to a public skeptical of how economic reforms would help bring more prosperity to the middle class, and a desire to try out new options. Virginia Raggi of M5S was elected mayor of Rome recently and Renzi's referendum move similar to the way prime minister Cameron moved for a referendum on an old issue of euroskeptisim, may have failed to grasp grassroots changes. The irony is that in 2014 elections to the European parliament Renzi's democratic left party won 40% of the vote and was seen at the time as a success, and the same size vote in the referendum is seen as a failure. In a referendum all other parties votes are added together from right to left parties and new parties. In the Brexit vote the Labor party "no" vote including Labor voters who never voted added to the votes of Brexit supporters and the newer UKIP party giving Brexit the slight edge needed. The singular feature of the trend is that working class voters are combining with right leaning voters to upset established parties, in the midwestern U.S., in the north of England, and in the north of France. In the medium to long run this means the left parties are likely to move to realign themselves with their base of support. ...

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Labour's Keir Starmer wants to make Britain the first nation to have a zero emissions power system. His plan put forward in September 2022 would double onshore wind, triple solar energy, and quadruple offshore energy production by 2030. It would create half a million jobs, reindustrialize Britain and cut electricity bills by hundreds of pounds, says this report in The Guardian.This is Labour's answer to the Tories faltering energy plans. The Breakthrough report on achieving COP26 goals of the IEA and IRENA, international renewable energy agencies, shows the opportunity to create 85 million additional jobs by 2030, compared to 2019. Many world leaders including president Biden and Starmer, Germany's Habeck, and India's Modi are setting aggressive goals for renewable energy.

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Harris told an audience in Pittsburgh-

"I remember being there for my mother when she was diagnosed with cancer. Cooking meals for her, taking her to her appointments. I know caregiving is about dignity.”

Harris will propose help for seniors for homecare, living at home, funding it with Medicare cost improvements in cost of pharmaceuticals it pays out. The benefit will cover cost of home health care services including home health aides.

About 105 million Americans or 40% of Americans currently provide unpaid childcare. Harris proposed $6000 child tax credit for parents of newborns. And 25% of Americans are also caring for aging parents as well and bearing this cost as well when they have children.

 

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This Perspectives piece in the DW.com says the German government has little option but to support the federal Leipzig court ruling in favor of banning diesel cars in cities with high pollution levels. It says the best days of diesel engine cars are over in Germany and in Europe. The downward trend after the VW diesel emissions scandal affected public confidence, the pressure from the European Union with the strict Euro 66 standards and the failure of many German cities to meet the EU nitrogen oxide standards, and this ruling by the courts, all mean says DW.com that the best days of diesel are over.

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Less than 1% of the electorate or 160,000 members of the Conservative Party in Britain that are now electing a new leader to lead Britain are supposed to decide British policy. This happens as the COnservative Party wins only about 11% of the vote in the European parliamentary election. During the last election the Conservative Party needed the support of a small party from Northern Ireland to form a government.

Here the WSJ shows how a group of older voters in the Conservative Party are choosing a leader to lead Britain. There is a sense that this group fails to reflect the views of the country of 60 million leading to a short lived Conservative government and fresh elections.

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Boeing offers a 35% wage increase for settlement of machinists strike in October 2024.

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An unimaginable gap exists between whites and Asian students in California in educational opportunity which poses risks for social cohesion in the US. Asian Americans in the UC California system are overrepresented in the colleges to an extent that would have been unimaginable in the 1950's. With just 15% of the population of California Asian Americans makeup over 40% of the UC college system. By comparison Whites have lost ground in a way that would have also been unimaginable in the 1950's with only 18% in UC colleges and 37% of the population.

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Three homes built in Boston to show the potential of passive home construction that are designed with solar panels, heat pumps, wood construction, and modern technology design that minimizes loss of heat in winter and reduces temperature increases in the summer. The cost of the electricity bill for each of these three homes is nearly zero. Passive home construction cost is about 15% more or in this case $1.4 million for homes that would otherwise cost $1.2 million in the Boston area. The design and technological aspects can be incorporated in lower cost affordable housing and 40% of passive construction is planned in that field.

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Reports from Europe that a V shaped recovery is happening in the economy. Andy Haldane the chief economist of the Bank of England says roughly half of the 25% lost output in the economy in the lockdown in April and May has been gained back in UK. This is good news for Europe after the bad hit it took from the pandemic since March. The reopening of the economy in Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Britain is taking place with greater reassurance as the curve is flattening out at low levels of cases in July and people are generally following rules for prevention.

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 India would be 27% richer if it rebalanced its workforce to include more women, according to the IMF. Women's participation in the workforce is the lowest of the G20 countries except Saudi Arabia. Contributing only one sixth of economic output, half the global average. The employment rate of women in India has dropped instead of rising from its low level, an alarm signal. It was 35% in 2005, now in 2018 it is 26%. In the last decade the economy has more than doubled in size and number of working age women, according to the IMF is 470 million. Part of the reason is that more girls are in school. Conservative social rules mean that women are discouraged by their families or in-laws from working outside the home. As families become richer more women stop working. The lack of manufacturing jobs is also a constraint. Men have taken 90% of the 36 million jobs in industry created since 2005. Census data show that more than one third of women would take jobs if they were available. Urbanization and the shift to cities means less work in farming, mechanization of farming makes for less agricultural work. Changes in attitudes and better policies for maternity leave and women friendly workplace could help. Because most of the jobs are still in the informal economy, this is not as effective today but could make a difference in the future as more formal jobs are generated. Attitudes where men do more housework can make a difference. If men spent about 2 hours doing dishes and putting kids to bed, there would be a 10% increase in women's participation rate in the workforce, according to a World Bank study. One study shows this would add 550 billion dollars to India's economy. True especially as more women are getting university degrees and high school education. and the census study shows women have the desire to work if cultural attitudes, more men doing housework, and the job market were to change.       ...

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The battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in the North have 83% white voters in a national election compared to 69% nationwide. It is with white voters that Mr. Biden is doing better and according to three sets of data, and this could make it possible for Mr. Biden to win these states again in 2024. In Georgia and Arizona nonwhite vote remains sturdy for Biden, while the states are moving leftward, and this could tilt these states towards Biden, says this report. Biden is losing some support among nonwhite voters but this is happening in states such as New York where Democrats would have a smaller margin in their win. These changes are observed by taking into account the 2020 national and midterms results and combining them with insights from NYT/Siena polls in recent months.

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Polls just days before the French presidential election show independent candidate Macron getting about 60% of the 18-24 year age group. There is discontent in this age group because of high unemployment. The unemployment rate is 24% for people below age 25, higher than 18% before the financial crisis of 2008, compared to 7% in Germany for this age group. For people 25 to 29 years it is 14%. This is why Marie Le Pen has appeal in economically struggling northern towns. Yet most French people are finding it difficult to take on an agenda as radical as Le Pen's that takes France out of the eurozone. In the final debate just 24 hours before the vote Le Pen entered into a discussion about leaving the eurozone but showed she had no clear idea of what this would mean for France. She described Brexit as an example and Macron shot back that Britain was never in the eurozone to begin with, and it appeared that Le Pen was just hoping that it would all work out, without a clear grasp of the facts. She had no response to Macron on how an exit could create panic in the markets and lower the value of savings of ordinary French people by about 20%. On pensions she stated that 60 was the age for retirement under her plan opening herself up to the criticism that she had no clear idea of the facts as Macron pointed out- that it would mean lower benefits or higher payments into the retirement system. This may be why even some young people who see the banking experience of Macron as a liability, may be offset by others who see this as a possible asset because of the need for some valuable experience in an independent candidate, as described by Dalton.    ...

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US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says this is not chaos in tariff policy because you don't change 70 years of policy overnight. He says China's is highest because it has the highest trade deficit, then EU, Japan, South Korea at 15% because of the smaller deficits with these nations, Vietnam because it is used  by China to send products to the US, India because of geopolitical reasons buying Russian oil. See Dasha Burns, Politico White House Bureau Chief's  interview with USTR Jamieson Greer.  He says about India- Jamieson USTR calls India "an outlier" and says "I'm confident we will get a deal with India in the near future." India he says has largely corrected its imports of Russian oil and negotiations are underway for a deal.  ON USMCA Greer says of the $31 trillion in trade with Canada and Mexico $29 trillion is us right. trade between Canda and Mexico is small. So he says it makes sense to negotiate separately with Canada and separately with Mexico. This suggests that there doesnt need to be a USMCA- separate deals are just fine says Greer. Mexico has gained much in automobiles under USMCA- US wants to make more in the US including auto parts which it can do by negotiating this with Mexico. It does not make a ton of economic sense to marry the three economies together, says Greer, as the import export profiles, lab,or situations are all different. Are Tariffs good for the economy and do they lead to higher prices? Greer says inflation was down in the first DJT term in trade with China and tariffs. Greer says there is never a 1 to 1 with tariffs. It tariffs become a kind of leveage in getting agreements. That is the style of these tariffs. You tell Ecuador or Brazil we don't make these here so there will be no tariffs on bananas and on coffee. Says Greer- we have seen inflation in check, imported goods relatively low priced. We have seen that we can have growth and higher wages with tariffs at the same time. The growth in 2025 third quarter at 3.8% annual growth, and Atlanta Fed predicting 4.2% growth in 2026. And tariff money can be used for paying down the debt and financing America's reindustrialization, Greer says members of Congress are asking about this.When a new administration comes tariffs will still be part of the playbook. ...

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Chinese president Xi Jinping has set strict carbon emissions targets for 2021, in his commitment to achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Power cuts for industry are put in place to meet the targets. A 56% rise in coal prices is also making it less profitable for power plants to generate electricity. This will further reduce Chinese GDP growth. Banks have cut year over year GDP growth for quarters three and four to 4.7% and 3%.

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Founded in 1880, Carl Welcker's company has seen the changing fortunes of manufacturing for over a century, during depression and after the wars. Still the 50% drop in orders for this company, which makes the machines that make 80% of the spark plugs in the world, is like nothing Carl Welcker has experienced. Its a tragedy he says. Its the speed of the manufacturing decline that is causing concern. In Europe where a fifth of GDP comes from manufacturing industrial production is down 12% from ayear ago. In Brazil it is down 15%, in Taiwan 43%. In China exports are down 25%. In the USA, industrial output went down by 11% in February 2009, according to the Federal Reserve. The pattern of this decline recalls the pattern of 1929, as tightening creedit and consumer fear reduces demand for manufactured goods in one country after another, creating a downward spirtal that reduces global trade. And of concern is that trade is declining even faster than manufacturing.German exports are down 20% from ayear ago, Japan's have plunged 46%, and in the USA exports fell at an annualized rate of 23.6% in the fourth quarter of 2008. A company like Schutte in Cologne, Germany, expanded rapidly as globalization opened new markets in Eastern Europe and Asia. Sales more than doubled in 5 years from 58 million euros to 100 million euros. Which suggests that the extraordinarily rapid expansion of the last few years may have its reverse effect heightened in a slowdown, as those additional sales to China and Eastern Europe disappear. For the USA manufacturing accounts for 14% of GDP, for the world 18%, and for China 33%. But this creates a misperception about the importance of American manufacturing exports. First, manufacturing contributed more to GDP growth than any other sector of the US economy, and accounts for two thirds of American exports, says the chief economist for the National Association for Mnaufacturers in Washington. America's share of global manufacturing output, he says, has remained steady at 20 to 23% for the past decade. This covers jet engines, locomotives, pharmaceuticals, and high tech products. For countries like India where manufacturing accounts for 16% of GDP, the last quarter of 2008 saw the first quarterly production decline in over a decade. And industries like handicrafts exports have fallen by 55% to $1.35 billion, and textile makers have cut half a million jobs. ...

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Clarendon is a 15 minute Neighborhood, a neighborhood in Arlington, Virginia just a few Metro stops from downtown Washington DC. One can walk to where ever one needs to go within 15 minutes. This writer suggests that people will not move to such neighborhoods till more of them are built and the price comes down. In 2024 15 minute neighborhoods cost much more and offer less living space- not an attractive option he says. Houses elsewhere in Arlington cost as much as apartments in Clarendon.