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WSJ talk of "reverse Nixon" shift of Russia from China Feb 2025- reminscent of how China moving away from Russia in Mao's last years by 1971- with DJT overtures to Russia. This report does not say that Lt. Keith Kellogg has said clearly and many times the main reason- it is a senseless war that is costing an entire generation of young men from Russia and Ukraine with loss of about 1 million young people in war zones including civilians. All coming after a pandemic has taken away millions of people of an older generation from China, India, US and Russia. PM Modi has also described it in this way.

Europe sees this but has become so entrenched in a view that there will be a winner in this war when there are no winners. America as a beacon of hope in the world takes a position that is in the interests of India, China, EU, Russia and the US.

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US president Biden will give his farewell address on Jan 15 at 8 pm Eastern Time. It marks a vital point in a five decade career of public service, unprecedented in US history. Its impact is huge coming at the time of Covid pandemic and at a turning point in rebuilding America's infrastructure. What Biden missed was that migration needed to be brought under control taking immediate action as a top priority in 2021, not getting blindsided by the fact that Republicans were using strong language and the issue had become politicized. Biden did this for tariffs with China in 2020 keeping most of the DJT tariffs, he could have done the same keeping the basic border policies of the DJT administration and negotiating with Republicans in 2021 when he was in a good position to have legislation passed. Which he did late by Feb 2024 with Senator Lankford and Republicans but failed to get it through in the primary election season, by then too late. ...

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Plastic use has increased with the tripling in parcels delivered in the last 4 years, up to 64 billion parcels. As much as 93% of the growth in trash in major cities in China in 2018 comes from this one source- an astonishing 850,000 tons of plastic waste in 2018 from the e-commerce and delivery sector. Food deliveries and Alibaba online deliveries add to plastic waste. The government is cracking down with new rules from the Environment Ministry. By the end of 2020 non biodegradable plastic bags will largely be banned from cities, and single use straws banned in restaurants across China.  This ban will extend to all cities and towns by 2022 and to markets selling fresh produce by 2025. Restaurants will have to cut use of plastic by 30% by 2025. In 2018 China stopped taking imports of plastic waste. China is beginning to realize the costs of letting single use plastic grow. The last regulation was in 2008 banning the giving of free plastic bags at retail markets and banning production of super thin bags. It has taken the sudden jump in use in package delivery and in food delivery for the government to finally act. Experts say China uses too much plastic. India has taken strong action against single use plastic in 2019 under the leadership of prime minister Modi. ...

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Daniel Henninger of the WSJ says the state of opinion that asks does it matter, about the terrorist attack on Benghazi, is misplaced. He watched the movie "13 Hours" on what happened at Benghazi, and says a terrorist group had made plans to attack the American consulate, the depiction in the movie fairly accurate, and the Obama White House version with the 2012 election in two months not accurate. Henninger cites the indictment by a federal grand jury in the District of Columbia of Abu Khatallah. In June 2014 Khatalla was captured by Special Forces for the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi. The indictment says Khatallah and militias "launched a violent attack on the U.S. mission on Sept. 11, at 11.15 pm.." following this up with an attack on the CIA annex.

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Kenneth Volpert, head of taxable fixed-income at Vanguard Group in Valley Forge, Pa, says the weak economy and the Fed's easy monetary policy could lead to higher inflation. Inflation bonds strategists at Barclays Capital says the consumer price index after taking out food and energy is running at an annualized rate of 2.5% over the past 6 months and 2.9% over the past 3 months and is expected to go higher. The yield gap between 10 year TIPS and 10 year nominal Treasury notes, was trading at 2.24 percentage points on August 12, 2011 This means investors expect an annualized average rate of inflation of 2.24% in the U.S. over the next decade. This figure has declined from 2.65% in April, it is up from 1.5% in October 2010.

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GM is willing to sell amajority stake in Opel to the German government. Opel employees want to see that happen, as they say GM never understood Opel's potential. The unions favor this with IG Metall saying about 400,000 jobs will be affected in the car and related businesses with an Opel collapse. And directly at Opel in Russelsheim near Frankfurt the plants employ 29,000 German workers. This is now a big issue in Germany. The bailout of German banks is as unpopular in Germany as it is with Americans, with their own bailout of banks and financial institutions. And Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats are seeing polls showing voters shifting allegiance to the Free Democrats, which reflects opinion of people in smaller independent businesses unhappy with the bank bailouts.

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This editorial in The Economist magazine points out that the doggedness of prime minister Theresa May now looks like pig-headedness. The crisis is of poor leadership. It also exposes two deeper problems in the Leave campaigns distorted message that it is possible for Britain to leave the EU, "to take back control" without making it harder to for British business and the economy to trade with its partners in Europe. It also exposes concerns of democracy that see the referendum as the only message from the people- the general election of 2017 brought Conservatives to power without a majority in parliament changing the picture about the referendum's message. Particularly since the referendum Leave campaign presented a distorted  message leaving out what the cost would be for Britain.  Ejection from the single market, decline of industy from finance to carmaking, destablisation of Northen Ireland peace agreement, exit bill of 50 bill euros was not advertised in the Leave campaign. Buses with posters of immigrants streaming across borders in Europe presented an emotional message recklessly sold to voters. Representing the will of the people can be claimed now by all sides, says the Economist. Leaving Europe on March 29 deadline with no deal would be bad for Europe and economic upheaval for Britain. Discerning the will of the people should not be the work of squabbling MP's or backbenchers in parliament. The only practical and sensible way out of this mother of all messes is to go back to the people and get a new opinion with broad daylight thrown on the realities facing Britain.   ...

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WSJ talks to Adam Grant, Prof. of Organizational Psychology at Wharton School of Business, on the importance of experimenting with different ideas. For every decision A and implementing it one forgets that there were other decisions that could have been made B, C, D or E, and each one offered new ways to experiment and try out new ideas. Grant is author of the book-" Think Again - The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know." Here he talks about how some CEO's used the pandemic (a problem) as an opportunity to experiment with new ideas on work to create productive happier workplaces. Others were too afraid to experiment. Grant says research data shows people are more likely to stay in a hybrid structure, because it gives them flexibility. From the productive workplace perspective this means people have to develop new skills and new muscle in a kind of experiment. This is what he says many CEO's are fearful to try out, now that they are reverting to the old workplace in the office-to what they know.  His biggest fear is that the experimentation that covid brought to us will stop. He sees four days of focused work a week or six hours of concentration in work a day, as way better than 8 hours of distracted work or five unmotivated days. Not just personal bonds are necessary says Grant, clear roles and goals are needed. And people need to be excited about what they are doing, which is possible he has found when they know the work has meaning for people who they are serving. ...

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The sense that one gets from the confirmation hearings for Pam Bondi is that after Matt Gaetz pulled out, Pam Bondi with her relaxed and thoughtful manner, her experience as Attorney General of Florida, is a decent choice. Most Senators felt she had the votes for confirmation. She brings the same skills for Republicans as Susan Wiles, DJT's chief of staff- she brings a calm demeanor to balance DJT's penchant for speaking in a blunt manner.  Pam Bondi confirmed that if nominated as head of FBI Kash Patel would report to her. Chris Coon accidentally calls her "Attorney General," and says he looks forward with working with her. Coons is the Senator from Delaware that was closest to president Biden.  Senators questioned Pam Bondi, a former Attorney General of Florida who has done work for companies seeking to work with DJT, and defended DJT in the first impeachment hearing, at her confirmation hearing in the US Senate. The back and forth exchanges happened with Democrats Adam Schiff and Hirano. With Padilla Pam Bondi was not given the opportunity to respond as he insisted on a yes or no answer. Democrats Schiff wanted to know whether she would investigate Lynn Cheney or Jack Smith. Bondi said she had not seen the file and it would e improper for to say anything without studying the matter, and that she did not want to drag politics into the work at the Justice Department as had been the situation before. Hirano asked if president Biden won the 2020 election. Pam Bondi responded that "Joe Biden is the president of the US."   ...

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Iran War and rescue of pilot of downed F15-E in mountainous terrain in southern Iran April 4 2026. CSAR or Search and Rescue Missions become a critical part of the war. The pilot was a colonel trained for the mission and spent 24 hours in mountainous terrain which was monitored by US forces, after intelligence located him in a mountain crevice. For this to be possible unlike in the Vietnam War and Korean War other nations are not involved as in the earlier Cold War.  The US under DJT as president has shifted to respecting Russia as a Northern European power that it can talk with (meetings with Putin in Alaska 2025) and China as a trade partner (planned meeting in Beijing in April 2026) that it can talk with unlike with previous administrations of Biden, Obama and Bush where China had afree hand in economic matters and global trade and Russia was shut out of the world economic system by elites who ran the government in the US at that time. Russia seeks reintegration in the world political and economic systems, and China seeks acceptance as an economic power which the US respects, both points in which the US has offered to accept. US has also repeated the line to China that it was not going to do the job of keeping Hormuz open for China and Japan to get 90% of oil imports, and in oding so risk losing its soldier's lives, while China and Japan can quietly watch doing nothing to help free navigation of international waters. Note that the narrowest strip of water of 13 miles separates Oman from Iran so that a part of these waters are on the Omani side and not on the Iranian side making free use of that Omani part under international law possible- in which sense Iranian hostile activity closing the Omani side also is a violation of free navigation. This is not pointed out by Iran or Japan or even Britain who are benefitting from US action and remaining silent or being ambivalent or accusing US of being interventionist even when everyone knows MAGA base rejected Bush in the Republican party and the elites and embraced DJT for great part because they want nothing to do with interventionist adventures in the Middle East for certain. US is getting a bum rap from European allies and from China, India, Japan and the media inside the US and in those countries as if the US seeks oil from the Middle East. It was Britain where a lot of the posturing goes on about non intervention that started this oil based intervention since 1900 in Iran itself, and in artificial states of Iraq, Syria, that it created out of the collapsed Ottoman Empire in World War 1. Sykes and Picot were the US and French diplomats who set that up. US under DJT has accomplished self sufficiency in oil and US has no need for anything from the Middle East, no desire to even get involved, and MAGA well grasps that fact and wants to keep it that way. Only nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles with long range to hit US and EU are reason for US action, which is reason enough for EU, China, Russia to set their own goals so that non proliferation in dangerous areas is prevented. So that the people of China, Russia, India, Europe and the rest of the world can enjoy the fruits of their own labors after a century of severe hardships and struggles which the American people if not their elites respect, and the fruits of peaceful cooperation which the American people extend to the World, and to China, Russia and India. ...

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Mauricio Pochettino played for PSG at one time. The Argentine soccer player is now coach for France's PSG as it takes on Manchester City in the semi finals of the Champions League. Pochettino talks about his years as a player and then a coach in this interview in The Times. He says nervousness as a coach never bothered him as he was always so absorbed by the game and the players, and it could be a bit genetic too.

He was not active as a coach for a year after his departure from Tottenham Hotspur. Today he is seen as an effortless manager, with a natural disposition for the sport and a developer of talent.

There is an emotional attachment because he was close to PSG. "We took the decision because of our heart, not because whether it was the right moment to arrive in Paris or not," he says. "Now after 3 months we leave a very, very tough period."

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Apple maintains its grip on the tablet market with its iPad at $499. Experts at Wharton and the Stern School of Business say Apple has found the strategically right price to maintain a dominant share of a rapidly growing market. So rapidly growing that some estimates show tablet computers surpassing PC sales by 2013. Apple CEO Tim Cook, has the logistical expertise that helped him work out the right price. The Kindle at $199 is hardly profitable by some estimates. Samsung has a smaller tablet at $499. In 2011 Apple saw its tablet market share decline from 87% to 68%, according to IDC Research, but still able to get a dominant share of sales. Apple uses the same approach to pricing for the iPhone. The profits generated on large sales and higher margins helps Apple invest in new products.

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The May 6 episode of the stock market plunge of 900 points in the U.S. and then recovering had the effect of rattling investors nerves especially retirees. The impact of this episode is recorded in the experience of one Charles Schwab broker office in Englewood, Colorado. By the end of that day this broker had 50 calls on his answering machine from a fifth of his clients, all seeking to know what happened. Charles Schwab, who helped launch a period of individual investing in the U.S. after 1982 by cutting fees and going after the average investor, (along with others like Jack Bogle of Vanguard Funds), is also on edge. He says he has not seen anything like this since his early days. Schwab confirms Yale Prof. Shiller who says (see link) that his index for markets shows a lot of nervousness. Saying that 98% of people are still very concerned, coming after the May 6 incident, and the Greece and eurozone crisis that impacted US stock markets. One other factor he points out is the constant flow of headlines that suggest certain business people engaged in fradulent practices, something that fuels a lack of trust. Charles Schwab ponders from his office across the San Francisco Bay Bridge, whether words like safety and soundness mean anything anymore. Another factor of concern, Bogle points out, is that institutional investors now own 70% of American corporations, up from 35% in 1975. And the advantage has veered sharply in their direction as institutions, hedge funds, and investment banks trade on their own account, with wealth moving in that direction. This leaves the individual investor and especially the retiree or those about to retire in a severe predicament....

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PM Modi pays homage to Atal Bihari Vajpayee who set India on the course of modernization and technological advancement, its course for unification as a parliamentary democracy under the Indian Constitution. "Atal Ji understood Indian democracy and also the need to make it stronger. Atal Ji presided over the creation of the NDA, which redefined coalitions in Indian politics. He brought people together and made NDA a force for development, national progress and regional ambitions. His Parliamentary brilliance was seen throughout his political journey. He belonged to a party with a handful of MPs but his words were enough to rattle the might of the all-powerful Congress Party that time.” “When it comes to the social sector, an initiative like the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan highlights how Atalji dreamt of building an India where modern education is accessible to people across the nation, particularly for the poor and marginalised sections. At the same time, his government presided over many economic reforms which set the stage for India’s economic surge after several decades of following an economic philosophy which encouraged cronyism and stagnation.” ...

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A group of neurological expeorts in the UK help us with advice. Includes things like avoid hearing and vision loss that lead to not driving or isolating. Social interaction and learning are key so take up a hobby, find new interests , learn a new language, travel, and link this up with other people, new people you can meet. Get plenty of exercise, core building. Nature walks, hiking in the mountains, swimming, outdoor activity. Good sleep begins in the morning so that by the time it is 9.00- 9.30 pm one is ready to go to bed. It helps not to stay up late. Eating healthy, olive oil and Mediterranean diet instead of butter, and eating fruits and vegetables, nuts.  Mindfulness helps. There are four forms of mindfulness. On the leftside Menu for Lyrarc there is under Lyrarc Insights the section Mental Well-Being which gives a translation from the original Pali text of the Buddha describing the Four Forms of Mindfulness in the Sattipana Sutta. This spiritual training, a reading of the Bhagavad Gita or the Bible, nourishes brain health and gives clarity of mind. ...

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Surges in capital value can be wildly misleading. Nvidia a rapid computing company propelled in stock value. From the growth of crypto currency that led to losses and was perceived as a danger to the financial system by central banks and governments. This is happening when capital investment is a dire need in education and schools, good teachers and good classrooms, when only a third of American students pass NAEP tests on reading comprehension. Today's capital allocation system was never designed to accomplish this even as it sends hundreds of billions of dollars in one single day to a single company. Nvidia is now seeing a surge from chatbots computing coming out of ChatGPT,  leading to $184 billion change in its market value on May 25, 2023.  Nvidia was mostly a graphics processing company setup to make graphics on PC's look better. In 2006 Jensen Huang made the decision to open it up to developers to tinker with it and develop more computing capabilities. This has led to Nvidia designing much more powerful computing chips that perform thousands of calculations at the same time.   Nvidia designs the chips and sends production out to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. Suddenly Nvidia sees its share price surge and it joins companies such as Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Tesla that have seen one day surge in the value of the companies by over $100 billion shown in this WSJ graph by date. Huang says he thinks that this is the beginning of a ten year period in which companies will redo their data centers to build them up with AI computing capabilities. WSJ also says China's top nuclear weapons research institute has bought these advanced chips even though it is on a US export blacklist since 1997. In 2022 the Biden administration imposed new licensing requirements on export of the most advanced chips. Since then Nvidia is following specifications for chips that allow it to export to China, says the WSJ.     ...

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The British public is very conservative when it comes to reopening. 73% support prioritizing the health of citizens only 17% say prioritize the economy. This is the highest of industrialized nations, Japan being the next highest with 60% supporting prioritizing health only 16% in Japan saying the economy.  For Boris Johnson as he makes the speech on Sunday May 10 on reopening the political margin for error in decision is nonexistent. Britain's tabloid press and other media simply took the idea that to heck with it lets reopen reflecting a lack of caution in the headlines after Mr. Johnson expressed his intention to reopen. After seeing this Johnson and his closest advisers met without his hawkish ministers to reflect on what was happening in the country. The British government's scientific advisers say whether there are 100,000 deaths by the end of the year depends on many factors including testing, contact tracing, the way the lockdown is eased, the situation at nursing homes, and other government action  to prevent a resurgence in infections. At the meeting with Gove, Sunak Raab and Hancock, Mr Johnson stepped back and reversed any plans except for mild reopening- giving people more time outside for exercize, opening limited locations such as garden centres and advising strongly to wear masks on public transport. Both Johnson and Dominic Cummings his adviser had coronavirus, and Johnson spent some time in ICU. They know the impact of the coronavirus from their own personal experience.  For Johnson there is only one chance, Tory senior advisers say the public will forgive mistakes going into coronavirus, but will never forgive mistakes getting out of cotronavirus. He told Keir Starmer of Labour in parliament that he bitterly regrets what has happened in nursing homes. The scientists have warned him that the staff at nursing homes could seed communities once again. And that the coronavurus R ratio (1 being the level it starts growing again) could go up back to 1. This is the situation on May 10 as Johnson prepares to speak to the nation on Sunday at 7 pm, as he shifts to "maximum caution." ...

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Germany faces the possibility of a pandemic surge of the unvaccinated, something that is happening today in the southern United States.  For days the percentage of people that are fully vaccinated remains at 62%. Some vaccination centers are closed. A vaccination center outside the train station in Cologne offers passersby free vaccinations. Berlin's Social Democrat mayor Michael Muller is very frustrated. He says "I am now coming to a point where I think we have exhausted what we can do in politics."  At 62% the rate of fully vaccinated people in Germany is too low to prevent a surge of the Delta variant in the way that it has hit the southern US, and California. Vaccination rates of close to 85% are needed to tackle the risk of another surge in highly contagious delta variant. Not everyone remaining is die hard opposed to vaccines. The Robert Koch Institute estimate is that 5 to 10% of people are in that die hard category. The remaining 20-30 % are people who have various other concerns and fears, hesitancy, that may be changed.  The chairman of the World Medical Association Frank Ulrich Montgomery favors a vaccine mandate, what he calls a 2G rule, that should be introduced in Germany requiring vaccination to attend events, sports, restaurant visits, adopted nationwide. German government has rejected idea of mandatory vaccination of health personnel, that was adopted in France. Vaccination drives are regionally based. Some are ineffective such as the Deutsche Bahn train system vaccination drive for commuters that only had a few hundred doses of J&J vaccine and ran out quickly in Berlin. One prick J&J some say is better for vaccine skeptics. Vaccine skeptics think they may get away without getting covid infection. How does one get over this misconception? Others including members of the Greens party say vaccine needs to be delivered where people are- transit points, bus stops, doses offered in evening and early morning hours, trying new ways to reach people and inspire confidence. Germany now ranks behind France but ahead of Bulgaria in terms of vaccination percentage in September 2021, not a good situation. ...

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The WSJ provides an excellent guide to working at home, how to overcome the struggles and get some of the benefits from working at home. A large part of the struggles in working from home is not being able to unplug, and working like you are in an office. Working from office is different because of meetings and office distractions, and one gets less done, maybe 4 hours of decent work in a workday. So that in solo work one would say work 5 hours and accomplish what one would have done in 8 hours at the office.  At home consistently working 5 or 6 hours at a stretch can get a person exhausted and isolated.  Don't look at the clock for it to say 5 pm. Take breaks early, if one reaches ones limit or gets restless it is time to take an extended break or get outside for a walk, or do some stretches, yoga, or something else. Loneliness is another part of the struggles. Important to setup some video calls to make sure you get human interaction. Get some chance to refresh and talk to humans, get some interaction.  Leave stuff such as clearing inbox and less brainy tasks for the evening. Set top 3 priorities for the day or week so you have an idea of progress in a larger task. Time theming is a way to set aside certain days or time periods to get specific things done. Staying physically fit and mentally rejuvenated is the big challenge.  Exercize routines, stretches, yoga, meditation early morning, help keep ones mental and physical health. They are most important. They form the basis for the whole day and lay the foundation for getting things done. This is where the process sets the tone and helps get the best results. Once this is established one can let the ebbs and flow of work motivation and feeling ready to work happen, seeing them as natural, without concern that one won't get done what needs to be done to be effective. ...

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A former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Martin Feldstein, says a recession is likely in the U.S. as interest rates rise. He sees interest rates on 10 year Treasury  notes rising from about 3% to 5%, as the Fed pushes the short term rate from today's 2% to a projected 3.4% in 2020. As short term interest rates go up he sees equity prices reflecting historic P/E ratios for stocks. This would lead to a significant drop in share prices and drop in consumer spending, drop in business investment, and a drop in GDP of 2%. 

Because of huge deficits as publicly held federal debt rises from 75% to 100% by 2020, there is less room for fiscal intervention and help through public spending, and with short term rates at around 3% less room to cut rates. This means, says Feldstein, that a new recession would last longer.

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The 2012 Camry, is very much like the 2011 Camry, other than the Entune multimedia system in the dashboard. The big difference is in the price. Toyota has dropped the price on the 2012 Camry- the 4 cylider XLE starts at 25,535, about $2000 lower than the 2011 price, the LE Hybrid with 41 mpg fuel economy, starts at $26,750, and the V6 XLE is about $30,000. It offers quieter ride and dependable quality, but it lacks the new technological advances such as turbocharged motors, direct fuel injection, stop-start systems, and lithium battteries on new hybrids, features on the new Ford Fusion models. Ford, GM, Hyundai and VW are all competing with newly designed models. With the fierce competition it is difficult not to see Toyota struggling with the same problems Ford faced when it failed to innovate with the old Ford Taurus model two decades earlier.

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Mitsui, Mitsubishi, and GDF Suez each take a 16.6% interest in a liquefied natural gas (LNG) gas export plant being built in Hackberry, Louisiana. The investment by these companies totals $7 billion. The project is being built by Sempra Energy, based in San Diego. The project forecast to produce 12 million metric tons of LNG annually for 20 years awaits approval from the U.S. Energy Department. Low prices for natural gas in the U.S. -with the abundant shale gas supplies- of about $4 per millon BTU's compared to $10 in Europe and $15 in Asia are creating opportunities for investment. After the Fukushima nuclear disaster Japan has increased its imports of LNG to the point where it takes in about one third of the world's LNG market supples, according to Bernstein Research. Other companies which are active investors are Kogas of Korea, Sumitomo and BG Group of Britain.

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Inozemtsev of the Institute of Post-Industrial Studies in Moscow, asks the question wht if the Russian economy shows no growth in 2017, and 2015-2016 become the beginning of a serious downturn. If oil prices remain low for an extended period as now looks likely with factors such as shale oil technologies, Iranian oil, and Saudi policy, playing an increasingly long term role, Russia could face some of the problems former finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, other business leaders including head of Sberbank, warned about. A major problem that Inozemtsev points to is the change in the business climate for foreign investment in 2012-2016 as the Russian economy looks more inward, and the departure of many foreign companies. During the period 2000-2008, a major boost to the economy came from foreign investment which brought with it management and technological improvements. No emerging market country, including China, can have a bright future without access to new technologies and investments from foreign investment. The current period starting in 2009 stands in sharp contrast to the earlier period with the Russian economy lacking the boost from foreign investment, facing capital outflows, and international conflicts creating a long term effect on oil prices. Russia needed time to move its economy away from commodity dependence through technological improvements and investment, yet this does not appear to be happening, raising serious questions....

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The Editorial Board of the Washington Post draws attention to the speculative bubble in housing in China, the policies for sale of land by local governments that fuel the bubble, the corrupt local officials, and GDP growth that reflects overinvestment in housing creating serious imbalances in the economy. The structure of the economic and political system which promote this overinvestment in real estate has also reduced the role of the Chinese consumer in GDP growth, and is preventing a rebalancing of the world economy.