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By the end of December 2010, 2 million people in the USA are expected to lose their unemployment benefits, and and additional one million by the end of January 2011, according to the National Employment Law Project. This would happen if both parties in Congress fail to agree on extending unemployment benefits. The first week of December marks the expiration of federal programs that have extended unemployment benefits from 34 to 73 weeks beyond the 26 weeks given by the states. Republicans want to cut spending elsewhere to cover the cost. Democrats say $2 is returned for every dollar that goes into unemployment insurance because this money is spent quickly by needy families.

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Experts say entrepreneurs are seen negatively in Germany and a startup failure is likely to be seen as a problem in a resume. Yet many of the small companies with less than 50 million euros in sales were started in the early post war period decades before. These companies with less than 500 employees employ about 60% of German employees, showing their importance. Social Democrats Economics minister Sigmar Gabriel is promoting the idea of increased funding for startups by venture capital and private equity funds, by increasing tax breaks for startups. Germany's Federal Statistics Office figures show 87,000 new companies registered in 2014 through Novemeber, down 28% from the prior decade and 47% below 1996.

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President Obama has 63% job approval rating in a New York Times/CBS News poll. His backing is among Democrats and independents alike which is very useful for Obama.But the poll shows more American having faith in the President than in the handling of specific issues. He gets good approval on foreign policy initiatives at 59%, but in the handling of the Auto bankruptcy, or of health care his ratings are below his personal ratings as President. A majority of those polled were concerned about the rising budget deficits. BUt his ratings among Republicans has fallen from 44% in February to 23%. Republicans were viewed favorably by only 285 of those polled, the lowest ever.

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The University of Bayreuth, has written to Germany's defense minister Karl-Theodor Guttenberg, giving him two weeks to explain evidence that show he used passages from other writers for his university dissertation. Gutttenberg, 39, joined the Merkel administration in 2009, and comes from Bavaria. He was awarded the degree in 2007. Plagiarism is taken seriously in Germany because academic work is treated with much respect in Germany. This is happening even as Guttenberg was becoming popular as a younger politician with a political science background and a fresh face among older politicians. The title of the thesis is: "Constitutions and Constitutional Treaties: Levels of Constitutional Development in the USA and the EU."

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If John F. Kennedy were writing Profiles of Courage in 2024 he would have James Lankford as one of these Senators who showed courage to take the right stand in the face of opposition from his fellow Republican Congressmen and people in his state and the country who support loyalty to president Trump. Lankford says in this NYT interview that in December 2023 the immigration bill would have passed Congress into law. He has always seen that no one person is the boss. Trump is not the boss even as president. He is a co-equal branch, says Lankford. He sums it up saying- I work for the people of Oklahoma not the president.  Senator Lankford of Oklahoma is interviewed by Lulu Garcia Navarro of the NYT for his role in negotiating a immigration bill with Democrats in Congress and president Biden that would fix asylum policy and close the Border with Mexico. It is a tough bill says Lankford, and the Republicans held onto their position that there would be no citizenship for the immigrants who crossed the border illegally since 2024. If it came up in December 2023 it would have fixed the Border, says Lankford. It came up in February, and by this time the election nominee was Trump who decided not to support it, as it would take away the immigration issue that he hoped to run on against Democrats. It is still alive as Kamala Harris says it is her top priority to get the Lankford immigration bill passed into law. To know Lankford is to know that he ran the largest Baptist youth camp in the Nation at Fall Creek. He believes every person has value and worth and even if he disagreed with them that person has value and worth. His faith, he says, is something important for him, and not something you take off and put on.  The title should be The Men and Women who Solved Immigration for the Nation. This includes Republican Senator James Lankford of Oklahoma, Senator Krysten Sinema of Arizona, and Democrat Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut. Lankford for 22 years a youth Baptist minister from Oklahoma, Sinema immigration attorney from southern Arizona, and Murphy a lawyer from Connecticut. The man who selected Lankford to negotiate the immigration bill on behalf of the Republicans in Congress was Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. For the Democratic party Pat Schumer helped bring Democrats in Congress and president Biden behind a tough bill that reflected the consensus view that something serious had to be done about the US Border for a lasting solution. This opportunity may come again if Kamala Harris wins as she says it will be her top priority to get the Lankford -Sinema Bill passed. ...

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Ruth Marcus looks at the assumptions behind Romney's tax plan and questions whether simplifying the tax system with lower rates would help create the climate for higher economic growth and lower unemployment. Much of the differences between Republicans and Democrats revolve around this assumption, a core belief on one side and skepticism on the other. An effort to obtain a bipartisan assessment was made with the Simpson-Bowles commission recommendations, which advised closing loopholes and reducing deductions. The work done by Martin Feldstein on the Romney Tax plan builds on this approach of limiting deductions, and reducing taxes across the board. An issue for Democrats is inequality. Lower wages to improve competitiveness in manufacturing industry is a trend in Republican and Democratic administrations, because of the effort to improve U.S. competitiveness against other trading nations and has played a large part in lowering incomes in manufacturing oriented midwest and eastern states. The other cause of increasing inequality is the housing crisis and the effects on the economy through foreclosures and unemployment. The housing crisis developed under a Republican administration, and the lack of effective measures to prevent foreclosures under the last 4 years of a Democratic administration worsened the economic condition of the middle class, and especially so for minorities. During the housing and foreclosure crisis the proposals put forward by Republicans Martin Feldstein, a Harvard economist, and Sheila Bair, head of the FDIC who calls herself a "populist from Kansas," for bold government help to homeowners under water would have helped the middle class financially, and especially minorities, far more than the efforts of the Democratic Obama administration, and under Feldstein's plan even turned aound the housing market and boosted a recovery. Trends in world trade and industry have large effects outside what administrations of either party can control, and a lot depends on the temperament, wisdom and leadership provided....

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Pete Domenici of the Domenici-Rivlin deficit reduction commission and Sam Nunn are part of the initiative- Strengthening America- Our Children's Future. Other members of this initiative are Warren Rudman and Evan Bayh. Here they provide ideas on how to address the fiscal cliff of automatic cuts in spending that are approaching at year end under an agreement between Republicans and Democrats in Congress. The agreement was designed to offer the worst outcome for Republicans (huge cuts in defense spending) and worst outcome for Democrats (cuts in entitlemnt spending) as a last ditch effort to force the two parties to come to an agreement on deficit reduction. It comes after president Obama failed to accept the Simpson-Bowles deficit reduction commission proposals as a basis for working out a plan and as Republicans in Congress were dead set on avoiding any tax increases. In a recent WSJ editorial praising the CEO statement of 80 U.S. CEO's- organized by the Fix the Debt initiative inspired by Simpson and Bowles- the Journal called the CEO's support for tax increases encouraging and was critical of Republican "deadenders" who flatly opposed any tax increases. Domenici and Rivlin say kicking the can down the road again as Congress has a tendency to do is not the answer and a vigorous effort by responsible members of Congress is needed to come up with deficit reduction using the proposals of Simpson-Bowles commission and Domenici-Rivlin commission. This will end the uncertainty plaguing business confidence that is leading to decline in business investment- decline of 1.3% in the 3rd quarter of 2012- and a weakening of economic recovery. To this end Domenici and Nunn have brought together 35 members of Congress to push forward and held four public forums with experts including hearing from John Taylor, Martin Feldstein and Larry Summers....

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This analysis in The Guardian says US president Biden is reversing 3 decades of policy since president Reagan that looked with skepticism at government intervention in the economy. The $1.9 trillion aid package Biden has pushed through Congress is a big game changer in the way government operates to help rebuild America after the pandemic. The 2009 response by the government under president Obama was done without conviction that the government response was the best way to help the economy. By 2016 voters turned to a Republican, Mr. Trump, to help working class voters with a USA first policy, after decades of presidents from both parties Republican and Democrat failed to protect American interests in manufacturing, jobs and incomes.  US president Biden is continuing Trump's policies to protect working class Americans. And bringing new conviction that government not only has a positive role, but has an essential and vital role to play in protecting workers and households struggling to make ends meet. President Reagan had introduced such a deep skepticism of government, that it took so long for people to remember FDR and the role of government before the second world war and afterwards under the Truman administration.  What changed? The health care crisis exposed the weak areas in the governance and policy mindset in America. China had advanced mainly through strong government role of the Communist Party  in steering the economy and business to gain competitive advantage. The health crisis from the pandemic further devastated America's lower middle and working class following the banking and financial sector mismanagement by 2009. The pharmaceutical and health care sector similar to other sectors had shipped manufacturing overseas. In 2021 there is a deep sense that theories don't work, one has to act based on the needs and the situation the country is facing. The way competitor nations such as China are building new infrastructure, gaining manufacturing advantage, dominating key sectors and industries, and creating jobs, requires America to respond. In this situation posing the threat America faces as well as the social dislocation of decades of misguided policies, the US government is the only one capable and having the resources and capacity to respond.  ...

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The main lines of the Message to Congress by the US president in 2025 related to flood of illegal immigration, and illegal fentanyl flows with deaths of Americans in the most vulnerable neighborhoods across 51 states over 12 years, 490,000 deaths, more than Vietnam. "The media and our friends in the Democrat Party kept saying we needed new legislation to secure the border—but it turned out that all we really needed was a new president.” As it turns out the legislation Biden with Republicans led by Senator Lankford negotiated in Feb 2024 did not have the strong action taken in the first 100 days to deter illegal immigration and remove illegal immigrants endangering safety in American neighborhoods. That legislation did not have provisions to bring illegal fentanyl flows into the US to an end with strong action including tariffs on CMC countries Canada, Mexico and China responsible for the fentanyl flows into the US. Transgender was another issue addressed in the speech with DJT clearly stating that their only two genders and against mutilation of bodies, with trust in God about the gender God placed us in as best for us. Other issues were about tariffs action going into effect on reciprocal tariffs on April 2 with all nations including India, Europe, China, Japan, South Korea. DJT cited India for high tariffs, South Korea with 4 times American tariffs, and European nations. The goal was to ensure a level playing field for the US to compete- "what they charge us, we charge them." As explained in an earlier article in the WSJ reciprocal tariffs in the world context mean commodities products would not have price increases for the US consumer, smartphones autos would increase but this would be temporary as these nations play fairly and create a level playing field, and these products manufacturing is shifted to the US. This would mean growth for US auto industry and smartphones coming from inside the US and from India offsetting concentration of production in China. Apple has told the president it will start making inside America investing hundreds of billions in the US from now on. ...

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is pushing for a large pandemic stimulus package to ensure the recovery of ordinary Americans after suffering through this pandemic. Yellensays: "We need to make sure that people aren't going hungry in America, that they can put food on the table, that they're not losing their homes and ending up out on the street because of evictions. We really need to address those forms of suffering, and I think we should'nt compromise on it." Mr. Biden has a $1.9 trillion stimulus package for the pandemic related recovery to relieve suffering people and businesses. Yellen and Biden feel it is really important to do this immediately. A recent picture in the NYT shows Stephen Schwarzmann of American finance with Mr. Trump showing him as one who stuck with Mr. Trump to the end. Much of this play as Shakespeare calls it, is the result of Democrats of the old tradition like Yellen trained by economists from the New Deal and Johnson era, who have not walked the talk and forgotten the suffering of American workers. Yellen held a Conference on Equality at a branch of the Federal Reserve during her time at the Fed, used strong language about the neglect of American workers but did little under the Clinton or Obama administration about the underlying structures of tech and shift of American jobs overseas that led to the destruction of America's manufacturing. Today they are faced with the picture of food insecurity in American homes once a situation that afflicted China and India. ...

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The Republican House health care bill AHCA  keeps some some of the more popular parts of the Affordable Care Act such as not taking pre-existing conditions to deny insurance, keeping children covered on parents insurance till age 26, and increase contributions to Health Savings accounts. It is different in that the expansion of Medicaid at 138% of poverty rate threshold is rolled back. Age is used for tax credits instead of income, hitting those approaching Medicare age harder. The maximum charged to older people is now set at  5 times compared to 3 times what young have to pay. In general the Republican bill is seen as targeting the elderly to keep premiums down. The elderly on low incomes are hit hardest. Fox News O'Reilly Show showed the host questioning House Republicans, citing the CBO estimates that elderly on low incomes may have to pay as much as $14,000 a year for insurance making it basically unaffordable, and 52 million Americans would be affected adversely. Large companies are no longer required to offer mandatory health insurance under the new bill. Conservatives from Freedom Caucus wanted to see the essential areas of benefits covered by the law limited to fewer than the ten areas in the Affordable Care Act. The ACHA Republican bill leaves to states to determine what are required essential benefits. At one point maternity benefits were to be dropped but this was changed to let states decide. As a result the bill is 33 votes short of the number needed for passing the house in March 2017.   Neither the Democrats Affordable Care Act or the Republican House bill of Speaker Ryan do much to tackle the real problem- the absolute amount and increases for health care dollars for treating each disease in the U.S. compared to European and other countries. As a result health care has become more of a partisan struggle between the two parties than a real effort by all to overcome the problems that have to be tackled. Republicans want to see premiums drop and keep the burden on the deficit down- but with the level of U.S. health care costs disproportionately high compared to Europe and the rest of the world the arithmetic is tough and ends up leaving out vulnerable groups such as the elderly on low incomes, thus making the whole proposition prone to fail. For the same reason the Democrats failed to keep premiums down with a wider safety net leading to calls for repeal of their version.   ...

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The WSJ's Kimberley Strassel says a Republican winning the White House in 2016 depends on how well the party appeals to white working class voters and the struggling middle class living from paycheck to paycheck. She says Speaker Paul Ryan is taking the right step in coming up with the idea of the Kemp Forum on Expanding Opportunity event in January 2016. Presidential candidates attending the forum are Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, John Kasich. Not attending are Ted Cruz and Donald Trump who are getting support from voters who are discouraged by establishment policies. Strassel says upward mobility for the midddle and working class is emerging as the No. 1 issue in the election, especially with Hillary Clinton leading the Democrats.

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Because of the political split and bickering in the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission between Democrats and Republicans, the Commisssion failed to give a lucid account of what caused the crisis and what must be done to prevent future crises. The presssures on the commission were great and led to infighting and resignations. The Commission could not even agree on whether the term" Wall Street" should be used or removed from the report, says professor Portnoy. The 19 hearings were unfocussed, and the funding of $8 million not adequate for the 22 topics to be investigated. These and other reasons have led to a report that fails to achieve its original purpose of giving the public a clear idea of what went wrong and what needs to change.

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Speaking on national television in the U.S., President Obama outlined his plans for action relating to the BP Gulf Oil Spill. He is appointing former Mississippi governor Ray Mabus, as head of a Gulf Resoration program to work in cooperation with communities, conservationists, fishermen, and local residents. Obama also said he will tell the chairman of BP's board, Carl Henric-Svanberg, that he will have to set aside resources for compensating workers and business owners who have suffered through this Oil Spill. The White House wants to see an escrow account for this purpose and is negotiating this- the amount varies from an estimate of $20 billion by Senate Democrats to other estimates. Other action was appointment of Michael Bromwich, as head of the Minerals Management Service.

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Even with a lower troop committment, the new costs of $ 1 million a year for each soldier, threaten to wipe out the $26 billion in savings from Iraq in 2010. The overall military budget could go up by 10% from a high of $667 billion under the Bush administration to $734 billion. Head of the House Appropriations Committee, David Obey, of Wisconsin, says that sending more troops to Afghanistan would drain the Treasury, and "devour virtually any other priorities that the President or anyone in Congress had." Rep. John Murtha of Pennsylvania head of a House subcommitte on defense appropriations says that a majority of the 258 Democrats in Congress would vote against any bill to pay for more troops.

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Representative Thadeus McCotter represents Livonia, an area west of Detroit, that has suffered shuttered auto and auto supplier plants and high unemployment. He gets a lot of questions these days about his vote against the Stmulus Plan. Says the Speaker of the Michigan State House, State Representative Andy Dillon, whose district overlaps McCotter's, "they are betting the farm, if this works, I think people will remember they were not on board. Democrats are targeting McCotter and 11 other Republicans in competitive districts in harder-hit states, saying they opposed the stimulus package's tax cuts, and generation of new jobs or preservation of jobs at the local government level, as well as extended unemployment benefits. Independent polls are reporting wide public support for the stimulus package.

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Stephen Fidler of the WSJ lists 6 factors that will influence the direction of the war in Ukraine.  1. The weather. This will affect operations as muddy wet conditions will limit movement.  2. Bakhmut. Russia is using persistent attacks on this city as a way to show people in Russia that it is making gains in a political effort more than a military one. 3. Ukrainian offensives in the Zaporizhia region in the south. Since this report was written Russia has advanced its forces in this area as Ukraine still awaits western aid in the form of Leopard tanks and other tanks. Russia has called up 300,000 reservists and this is now making an impact in the Russian efforts to advance. 4. Russian defenses. Russian forces are dug in across a smaller front 550 miles instead of 700 after ceding some territory to Ukraine, of which 240 miles are river barriers. Trenches and excavations extend all the way to Crimean beaches. 5. Russian offensives using the 300,000 reservists that were called up and new discipline in the forces. Here experts say the reservists are not expected to do what trained Russian regular armed forces could not do. An attack from Belarus is seen as less likely as massing of forces there would be detected early by western allies of Ukraine. 6. Events outside Ukraine Russia is counting on waning support for Ukraine as Republicans in the House of Representatives raise the debate of the issues in this war and look for alternative solutions. French president Macron's views and German Social Democrats views are also against escalating the war, and are only taking steps for military support one step at a time to not let Russia be seen as coming out of this war as winning by staging an unprovoked attack on a friendly neighbor. ...

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This editorial in Der Spiegel magazine sees something positive emerging from the current state of politics in Germany with the fragmentation in political parties. It says this situation is something that is happening for some time now. In the Netherlands there are a number of parties working together in a coalition government. And in France the Macron movement swept away the old parties. Something similar is also happening in Italy with the Five Star Movement as elections approach in March 2018. This may be a positive development in that the days of 100 percent convention votes, and of career politicians who move up the ranks from one political committee to another, are over. Voters are acting in individualistic way, don't trust the elites and old big tent parties with career politicians who may not be responsive to people's needs.  Young people are eager for more participation, and this may be a good thing, says Der Spiegel. It points out that not just parties like AfD are gaining as a result. SPD support dropped to 16 percent in one poll same as AfD. The Christian Lindner's Free Democrats in Germany also are benefitting,Macron in France is benefitting, Sebastian Kurz in Austria is benefitting. Their parties they prefer to call as "movements" with some marketing and political platforms that appeal to young people. Macron's movement moved aside the old political system and brought in younger people, revitalizing the decaying political system. The conclusion for Der Spiegel is that this change is not entirely good or bad, its a challenge. Our focus should not be on propping up obsolete structures, breathing new life into old political structures could be a good thing with new younger voters looking for participation. So don't be afraid of voters. ...

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David Brooks who has covered Joe Biden for decades from his time in the U.S. Senate to Vice President under president Obama, says he comes not from an elite tradition of Democrats such as Adlai Stevenson, but that of Harry Truman, for and of the common man- the "average Joe" in American slang.  Strengths Brooks finds in Joe Biden are his emotional transparency, knowing at any time in interactions what Biden is thinking and feeling. The candour in his conversations. Biden is also like Truman in how spirited he is in defending the common man and his interests in the true Democratic tradition of being for the working class and ordinary people, something lost in recent years. Having lost his wife and daughter in a traffic accident when he was first elected to the Senate, also gives Joe Biden a sense of how it feels to go through this experience. He later lost a son to cancer.  Biden is now the front runner for president. Like Truman Biden has faced criticism for speaking his mind, sometimes awkwardly. Yet as David Brooks points out Biden brings some of the qualities of a Harry Truman, at a time when the mood of the nation has changed and the Democratic Party is returning to its roots fighting for the common man. Harry Truman is thought of highly as American president because of the qualities of simplicity, courage, tenacity, and hard work that he brought to the presidency during the war and during the recovery after 1945. Few people are aware of the fact that Harry Truman returned to the small town of Independence, Missouri, after retiring, at a time when there was no presidential pension, and lived a simple life accepting no favors, without any of the trappings of a former president. ...

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In this interview with Herndon of the NYT Bernie Sanders refutes the labels "progressive" or "left" and says it is simply about policy that benefits the workers and families that make up the vast majority of this Nation. Sanders says 60% of workers are living from paycheck to paycheck. The vast majority of people 60-70% support Medicare for All, improvements in Social Security, cutting pharmaceutical costs, and tution support to make higher education accessible to all. Why he asks do workers support Trump? He says it is because the truth is that the Democratic party has abandoned its roots. He does not go into this, yet it can be said that the rise of the Tech industry in the last two decades has led to tech billionaires and business people coopting the Democratic party for their agenda. In the last year of the Obama administration it was evident that Rural America and people who represent rural America such as Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack of Iowa felt ignored while Obama spent more time with tech and internet business people. Former president Trump simply stepped into this void as Democrats failed to turn up for rural America. President Biden has turned things around by making Tom Vilsack an important part of his administrations with the president listening to  him and others speaking for rural America. The passion with which Senator Pat Schumer talked recently on CBS Face the Nation about bringing broadband to rural America shows how Biden and Harris, Harris and Walz see Rural America. This Democratic ticket is fighting for Rural America every step of the way to bring hope and a better life to Rural America. Sanders reminds people of FDR in 1936 after four years of fighting the Depression and improving lives there was so much that needed to be done. It is the same today and Sanders is wading into this fight with Harris and Walz in the same way as FDR did in 1936. ...

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The Tory plan to abolish the Financial Services Authority will not go through under the new Liberal-Conservative coalition. The plan now is to give the Bank of England responsibility for banks and financial institutions that are big enough to create systemic risk and to oversee financial regulation. The coalition partners support a levy on banks to act as a buffer in future crises, and favor restricting bank bonuses. The Conservatives would tax bank size, and the Liberals would tax bank profits, but both share the goal of raising 1 billion pounds in this way. Vince Cable, Liberal Democrat party's Treasury person will now be business secretary at Treasury, and he favors breaking up the biggest banks, shrinking banks and separating retail and investment banking activities. This could happen under the new coalition, but it is likely to be preceded with some commission asked to look into it. The Liberals like to see less focus on London for the markets and banks owned by their customers as far as possible....

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Sanger, Erlanger and Rudoren describe in detail the differing interests of Congress, the Obama administration, the Iranian hardliners around Khamanei, the Israelis, the Europeans, and the Russians each quietly pushing its own interests. Beyond the physics of a deal, a Republican Congress, Democrat Obama and Iranian hardliner Khamanei, each are trying to get their own narrative to look right with public opinion they face, that they have not backed down. The Israelis find any deal unacceptable and reject even a small lifting of sanctions, because of the "existential" threat. Add to this Sunni Saudi Arabia which says it will match Shiite Iranian capabilities with their own uranium enrichment facilities if Iran is allowed to retain capabilities. And economic interests also figure into this- Russian interest is in keeping Iranian oil off the market as long as possible so that oil prices do not fall further in 2015, which means delay an agreement as long as possible. The French see the Obama administration as likely to give too much away for an agreement and want tougher terms....