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Interview with former Mexican president Vicente Fox on the Arizona immigration bill. He says xenophobes have taken over. Fox emphasizes that the 11 million undocumented workers are the most loyal in their work habits, contribute to the US economy, and should be documented.

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International arrivals to the US that were still down by about 35% in June last year over the pre pandemic levels of 2019, are going to be only about 20% below prepandemic 2019 levels this summer 2023. The cost of gasoline for people in the US is about $3.57 a gallon compared to $4.60 last summer. Justin Lahart in WSJ says Americans with steady checks and low unemployment are willing to spend on trips this summer. Among Americans about 40% still avoided travel by airplane, train or subway in 2022. This is now down to 18% or less in 2023.

Traditional vacations are up as old style remote work vacations are receding. Marriott, Hilton and other hotels, and airlines report strong demand. Older people who spend more are also joining the trend this summer leading to higher spending. This may even help the US avoid a recession, says Lahart.

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The pandemic has affected Brazil, and Peru, Ecuador, the worst in Latin America. Countries where there was a lack of funding for public health and no consensus on how to tackle the crisis such as Brazil have done worse. Brazil has 11 deaths per 100,000 people compared to just 1.0 for Argentina. Chile with a political crisis and months of protests has no consensus in the country. It has done worse with 4 deaths per thousand and 95% of intensive care beds in the country taken, leaving hospitals overburdened and in stressful conditions. 

In Argentina the lockdown has been extended till June 7 and there appears to be a consensus on the government's approach to the crisis. Mexico under president Obrador decided to reopen earlier and now faces more coronavirus cases. Reopening the economy so that people in the informal economy could provide for their families was a priority for president Obrador. 

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In Biden's address at the UN General Assembly he talks about climate change and Covid-19, and a foreign policy that brings together US and its allies in Europe and Asia. He said "the next decade will quite literally determine our futures."  He encouraged "competition" but he stressed he was "not seeking a new Cold War or a world divided into rigid blocks." Biden also said the US would spend $10 billion to end hunger and invest in food systems around the world.

Biden also increased US commitment for developing countries to reduce emissions to total $11 billion by 2024- in a recent interview Indian finance minister Sitharaman says India has done its work for COP21 emissions entirely without US or other funds.

In a few days Biden will hold a Covid summit where he will call for vaccinating 70% of the world's population. 

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Italy is planning to place a quarantine in the north covering the region around Milan and 11 provinces nearby, in a draft decree from the prime minister's office, says this report in the WSJ. When a final decision is made the quarantine would go into effect March 8 and go on till April 3, 2020. This move is similar to the quarantine steps taken in China which helped limit the health crisis in China from coronavirus. The new decree also includes tight restrictions on travel in the affected areas. 

The new action is being taken as earlier measures have not limited the spread of coronavirus. They were requested by the government in Lombardy, which combined with Emilia Romagna and Veneto are the worst hit of the regions in northern Italy with about 85% of cases. It also means the industrial economy with 40% of GDP is affected.

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Women in senior management positions at GM include Mary Barra, Melissa Howell, Anne Larin, Victor McInnis, Grace Lieblein, Alicia Boler-Davis. Howell is senior vice president of global human resources. Leiblein, vice president for global purchasing. Boler-Davis, senior vice president for global customer experience and quality. Barra is the new CEO in 2014. Here Leiblein describes her decision as chief engineer for large crossover utility vehicles- to leave a gap at the bottom of the left foot rest making room for female drivers wearing a high-heel shoe. Barra says she concentrates on doing a good job and doesn't count the number of women in the room at meetings. Other female managers says women have to put in more than men to be recognized.

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OECD forecasts show an acceleration of US economic growth in 2021 with the $1.9 trillion aid package of the Biden administration. OECD forecasts show pre-pandemic levels of output reached by mid 2021, 6 months earlier than expected. Global output is expected to grow by 5.6% in 2021, after declining 3.4% in 2020. Main reason- US economy is seen expanding at 6.5%, twice as fast as previously forecast and fastest since 1984. OECD sees the importance of stimulus coinciding with vaccination of the population. The pace in the US with 18 million vaccinated in March and the goal of vaccinating the whole population by May is part of the reason given for the vigorous growth. Astonishingly the OECD sees the US economy larger in end of year 2022 now than it had forecast before the pandemic. For other countries such as India with slower vaccination progress and large population, OECD forecast is for 8% shortfall in growth from what was expected before the pandemic at end of 2022.  This is an amazing bit of good news amid all the dismay and confusion surrounding the coronavirus lockdowns. ...

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Five of eight unions in the German Confederation of Trade Unions DGB have increased membership. There is a shift to younger members as older workers retire. Membership is more engaged than ever before. More unions are taking up the issue of wage increases after workers were accomodative during the pandemic and Ukraine war. DW.com shows graphs of German workers having lost 18 days due to strikes coming ninth in the developed economies compared to 92 days in France, Canada 78, and the US 9 days. Cost of living action is seen as needed by workers for fair wages. There are 1.8 million open jobs and workers are now getting more confident to ask for better working conditions and higher pay, say experts. This is also happening in the US with president Biden's support. The problem is that only 50% of jobs in Germany are covered by collective bargaining agreements designed to ensure that companies pay decent wages. The EU directive in 2022 set a target of 80% for collective bargaining agreements. This makes it harder for unions yet the unions and workers are taking up the work with enthusiasm.   ...

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China gives Sri Lanka a $1.1 billion loan for infrastructure projects, roads, airports and power stations. Interest for loans has ranged from 4 to 6.4%, higher than World Bank loans but lower than loans from western commercial banks. Sri Lanka has $54 billion in debt, with large debt payments for a nation of 20 million. Chinese loans have helped build a expressway from Colombo to Katunayake airport, Puttalam power station, and a port at Hambantota. New loans are for work expanding Colombo's port facilities. During the 2015 election campaign the UNP party was critical of China's loans given to the Rajapakse government. The current UNP coalition of prime minister Ranil Wickremasinghe is continuing work on Chinese projects on the island and at the same time seeking  loans from India and Britain to maintain balanced relations. China sees Sri Lanka as an important part of president Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative. To assuage Buddhist and national sentiment in Sri Lanka China has adopted Buddhist diplomacy in negotiating with the new UNP led coalition government. ...

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Putting 300,000 children in poverty, affecting 1.6 million families, that is the cost of the two child benefits cap of Tory finance minister under Cameron, Osborne. The cost 1.7 billion pounds when 18 billion pounds of debt was added to the debt of company running the British water utility Thames Water, with a chunk of it to to pay dividends, that was privatized in 1989, as shown in the Guardian. Leading to its inability to make the investment needed and to the water quality issues in the Thames river. Thames Water is near financial collapse with parent company defaulting on its debt in April, according to the Guardian. The misallocation of funds under the Tories is a warning about what happens under Reagan/Friedman economic theory that has become part of the existing culture and damaged the economy in the US and Europe. These are what the King's Speech called "the scars of 14 years where politics (and economic theory) was put above the national interest, and decline deep in the marrow of our institutions." It is a time for deep reflection on what has happened. ...

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US and UK complete a trade agreement, the first of its kind with major trading partners. US has a $11 billion surplus in $148 billion two way trade with UK which is just ahead of India and behind Vietnam in trade with the US. Vietnam has acted as aproxy for Chinese exports to US something the DJT administration is taking action to correct. UK first 100,000 cars exported to US will not face a 25% levy, and UK exports will only face the 10% levy on all countries, including on British aluminium and steel. This agreement happened Thursday May 8 after a night call from Trump to Starmer moving up the negotiations to get awin for the US and the UK, that will also act as a model for other countries to reach trade agreements with the US. India, Japan, South Korea, could be next followed by EU. It also opens up engagement with China on a trade agreement. UK's Starmer thanked president Trump. The agreement was a first and it boosts stock markets in the US, shows the US can do this. ...

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Encourage homeownership by offsetting high property taxes. Makes auto loans $10,000 interest deductible. State and local taxes deduction $40,000 from $10,000 set in 2017. Makes it friendly to homeowners and encourage home ownership, building new homes. $10,000 property tax bills not common in 2017 when the SALT deduction was set, are now common after the price rise during covid years 2020-2024.  Help Parents by setting a ceiling on student loan debt, fund childcare, and fund future savings accounts for newborns. Makes Social Security benefits tax free for 88% of recipients. Sets a ceiling on student loan of $20,000 per year, borrowing limit $65,000 per student. Much of the bloated student loans are from universities raising tution as a tax on young people. This is a burden on the middle class. Child care credits are doubled to $2000, made permanent. Newborns get $1000 from government to which parents can contribute upto $5000. SNAP benefits changed the law to adults under 65 years from 55 years able bodied asked to work, with caregivers to children under 14 instead of under 18 years exempted. For Medicaid benefits one has to work 80 hours a month for able bodied persons under 65 years, appointments upto $35 for income $32,000 to $44,000. ...

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China's housing developers are increasing the issuance of high yield bonds in 2013. European and American companies have issued $120 billion in junk bonds for Jan-March 2013. Chinese companies issued $8 billion to overseas investors for Jan-March 2013, increasing from $2.3 billion in junk bonds issued in the same period for 2012, according to Dealogic. Yields are dropping. In the U.S. yields have dropped from an historical level of 10% to 6% on junk bonds. The same pattern is seen for China's junk bonds. Yields for bonds issued by Chinese housing developers have dropped from 11-12% to 7-8%. Investors are taking on higher risks on these bonds and the current yields do not reflect higher risk, as the bonds are issued from overseas subsidiaries for foreign investors. As with the bankruptcy of Suntech Power, foreign bondholders could lose everything. These junk bonds are not backed by the company assets in mainland China, and local banks and creditors in China come first in getting their money back. ...

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A key figure in approval ratings is 46% with DJT getting 46% approval for the economy and on a range of issues including immigration. On tariffs the situation is steadily improving with new trade agreements with Japan, the EU, South Korea that were announced after or just when this WSJ poll was taken on July 20. Among Republicans 88% support the president and 66% strongly support him which says this report means more of them would turn out to vote. More significant is that the optimistic rating of the economy went up by 11 percentage points from April 2025 to 46% in July 2025. This is also the view of Fed chairman Powell. Each step of the way as DJT tariff actions result in tangible improvements in trade relations for the US and result in concrete real world trade agreements for a level playing field in world trade, the president's actions are seen in a different light. The first Trade Agreement with the UK, then with Japan and now quite possibly with the European Union. All this within 6 months of the president acting in February 2025. A major role played also by Bessent, Greer, Luttnick and others in the cabinet of ministers. This lifts perceptions of the president in the eyes of the American people in handling the economy, business and world trade, and protecting the interests of America's farmers, and rural communities. ...

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The Editorial Board of the Washington Post says people should be concerned about going back to the 70's when New York City struggled with funding and went downhill. The very goal of affordability that Mamdani is trying to achieve could end up being hit because the methods may not work at all. It says free bus service means a transit funding hole, city run stores would hurt privately run stores, and a rent freeze would depress housing supply. Greg Ip in the WSJ compares Austin with NYC with Austin seeing 20% increase in housing supply to NYC 3% in 2020-2024. Austin had a 23% jump in one year in housing prices but it came down and over 4 years rent increases in NYC are 20% in Austin 11%.  It is only that much of the New Yorker educated elites have let the city down so much by not finding solutions to the affordability crisis and not focusing on fixing infrastructure and modernization of the American cities, in the last three decades that this has happened- as a desperate young population turns to giveaways or free services across the board as a solution that never works. A fiscal crisis could happen as in the 1970's creating another vicious cycle says the Washington Post. It says one can only hope that the damage is at the margins. ...

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The first farmer in recent history to become president of the US, 1977-1981, Jimmy Carter ran a peanut farm in the southern state of Georgia. He also served in the US Navy under Admiral Rickover. Rickover hired Jimmy Carter for the US early submarine program in 1949. It was Jimmy Carter's loss to Ronald Reagan that made the Democrat a rare one term president. The Iran hostage crisis happened during the election year 1980 which may have shifted the election in the Republican Reagan's favor. The economy also suffered from high inflation and lower growth during this period leading to the loss of the presidency for Carter. The incidents leading to the fall of the Berlin Wall happened during the Reagan presidency. This led to the period of three decades when the free market, less regulation period led to the 2009 economic crisis and the earlier breakup of the Soviet Union leading to the economic crisis in the early period in Russia. It was during this period that 2 Democrats president Clinton and Obama tacitly accepted the Reagan era policies of free markets and less regulation. This period is now coming to a close with the pandemic and a reassessment of what has happened. During that period Clinton paved the way for China's admission into the World Trade Organization. The lack of regulation has led to Section 230 leading to a proliferation of undesirable content on the internet, with support for regulation in the Us Congress. US policy is also moving to support its own industries something the Reagan policies saw negatively, particularly chip manufacturing where the US has lost its leadership role. The period that ended the Carter presidency is thus an inflection point that is now reversing itself decades later with the sense that government staying away from the economy is not a desirable thing. ...

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Slavery was banned by the 19th century in Britain and its Empire, it took the US till 1861 to do this and till 1961 to end racial segregation. By contrast Britain followed a policy in China throughout the nineteenth century that brought enormous pain and suffering to the Chinese people through the Opium wars and opening up of ports for opium trade in China. And the US under presidents Wilson, Coolidge, Franklin Roosevelt, and the American people followed a policy of respect for the Chinese people during this period with the idea fervently America believed of a modern nation emerging from the chaotic period of Manchu monarchy's decline by 1900 and warlords civil war + Japanese invasion from 1900-1945. For Britain and the European colonizers Chinese and Indian people were for the most part "coolies." Joe Stilwell, FDR's Supreme Commander of American Forces in China was the ultimate free of racism. A order from the Republican Coolidge administration in the 1920's was for any American soldier to be courtmartialed for so much as laying a hand on a Chinese coolie. A modern nation did emerge as the American people hoped and fought for in China, and in India over the 25 year period in the 21st century, with Britain having failed to bring the same level of understanding that America had for the Asian people.  Britain's monarch Charles tells Commonwealth leaders his government is not paying reparations for slavery yet is determined to create anew understanding to work with other nations in the future, to discuss issues with openness and respect. There are 56 nations in the British led Commonwealth, the largest of which is India. It includes South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania in East Africa and Nigeria, Ghana in West Africa.    ...

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As the federal revenues rise to about 18.1% of GDP (close to historical rates after return to growth) and outlays to offset the effects of the 2008 recession diminishing, the deficit is forecast to drop to 3% of GDP in 2014, and 2.6% in 2015, close to the average for the last 40 years. The deficit is estimated to be total $514 billion for fiscal year 2014, declining from $1.4 trillion in 2009. Real GDP growth (adjusting for inflation) of 3% is forecast for 2014-2017. In 2018 and the years to 2024 the deficit will increase because the pace of growth slows, and spending will increase- slower growth of the labor force as the population ages, increasing health care costs, subsidies for health care, and increasing cost to service debt. Outlays other than for health care, Social Security and interest payments on debt for year 2016-2024, are set to be the lowest percentage of GDP since 1940, according to the CBO report in 2014. Debt will increase to 79% of GDP by 2024 from an estimate of 74% for 2014. CBO projects unemployment only slowly decreasing, remaining above 6% till late 2016, with the rate of participation in the labor force- lower now because many people have opted to not look for work discouraged by the job prospects- slow to recover....

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South Africa's currency drops to 16.78 against the dollar by Jan 11, 2016. The currency is affected by the slowdown in China since June 2015. In the 6 months from June 2015 to the beginning of 2016 the currency lost 26% of its value.

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Lenovo had 11% of the smartphone market in China in the second quarter of 2012, trailing Samsung at 19%, according to IDC. Lenovo plans to compete with Samsung in smartphones for emerging markets. Lenovo plans to sell smartphones in India, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines.

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Moody's Investors Service estimates the cost of fuel subsidies to increase to 1.7 trillion rupees or $24.7 billion for the Indian government in the next fiscal year beginning April 1, 2013, up from 1.6 trillion rupees the prior year. This is the result of the rapid depreciation of the rupee in 2013. The rupee depreciated by 8% between Aug 25-Aug 28, and is now at 68 rupees to the dollar. A new Food Security bill that passed the lower house of parliament provides subsidies for grains to about 70% of the people, and will cost $20 billion, up from $16 billion for the prior year. Government borrowing costs are up. Th yield on 10 year bonds maturing in 2023 was at 9.44% on Aug. 21. The rupee depreciation is a result of the wide current account deficit of about 4.8% and India's dependence on foreign borrowing to finance the deficit. A pull back of foreign investors from emerging markets is happening after the U.S. Fed announced it was planning a winding down of its easy monetary policy and low interest rates. Because India imports 75% of its oil, the depreciation of the rupee will hurt government finances. The danger lies in what this does to the growth rate at a time when growth is alreeady slowing. In the current year ending March 31, the growth rate declined to 5% from 6.2% the prior year. A poll of 18 economists conducted by the WSJ found growh estimated to be 4.6% for the second quarter of 2013. India is the second most populous country in the world and faces huge needs for infrastructure and development, and needs to create millions of jobs for new graduates....

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Matthew Curtin reminds readers about a couple of facts about Germany. There has been a leftward movement of the Christian Democrats which has supported social protections in the global financial crisis. During the crisis collapsing exports that hit Germany hard. The Free Democrats as a result are the only party campaigning for reforms and lower taxes. The Christian Democrats think some of the Free Democrats plans are unrealistic. There is heavy public questioning of free market economics, and the reason the Social Democrats did so badly with only 23% of the vote is that it supported pro market reforms and lost some of its working class base. As the work subsidies expire in 2010 unemployment could hit 11%. So he says don't expect much in the way of reforms just because the Free Democrats got 15% of the vote and are in the coalition with Merkel.

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Copper supplies are expected to be constrained in 2015-2016. Copper demand was up 18% in China in 2014 even with the slowdown in housing. This suggests the future for copper prices may be brighter than it is for other commodities such as crude and iron ore.

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Both Ranbaxy and Dr.Reddy's, two of India's largest pharmaceutical companies, are bidding for Betapharm, Germany's fourth largest generic drugs maker. Ranbaxy's bid at 500 million euros was 50 million euros higher than Dr. Reddy's. Betapharm based in Augsburg, Germany, has sales of 161 million euros, and a workforce of 350. For Dr. Reddy's this is a way to get a foothold in a branded generic market in a developed country, says Dr. Reddy. This will be the largest foreign acquisition for an Indian pharmaceutical company.

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On May 11, NYT shows the rail network in India opening with the first trains taking 45 million migrants to homes in all parts of the country. Australia calls for an international inquiry into the cause of the coronavirus pandemic and its origins in China. Russia begins a cautious reopening with the governors of provinces having powers for reopening based on local conditions. In Spain restrictions are gradually being lifted but the major cities of Barcelona and Madrid are still in lockdown. And as Germany the first country to reopen opens up its business and schools the crucial R ratio of reproduction of the virus -with 1 being the number at which it grows again and below 1 showing control of spread- moves up to above 1.