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Ip's point about the actions of previous president's in promoting a recovery long after they are in office has to be qualified by the uncertain economic outlook for 2013, with a slowdown in the eurozone, China and India, and the efforts to control the deficit in the U.S. also affecting the economic outlook. The process of deleveraging has still to work itself out and the economy is still being supported by the Fed's continual easing of monetary policy.

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Fannie Mae will make a payment of $59.4 billion to the U.S.Treasury as a result of improvement of conditions in the housing markets that enable Fannie to writeup the value of devalued assets on its balance sheet. Fannie showed a profit of $8.1 billion for the first quarter of 2013 from its activities of guaranteeing and investing in home loans in the U.S. In 2008 the U.S. government bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the agencies received $117 billion in government assistance since then. With this $59.4 billion about $95 billion has been paid back to the U.S. Treasury. This also delays the debt ceiling deadline to Oct. 1, 2013 by generating more revenues for the U.S. Treasury in addition to higher tax revenues.

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Extreme positions on business related issues taken by politicians in the Republican party. An effort to influence the Republican party's platform through the ouster of moderate Republicans like Jim Bennett of Utah. The impact on the US Congressional elections in 2010. Positions such as the abolition of the Federal Reserve, prohibiting stimulus funding, sealing the borders and doctrinaire positions on the role of government. Education reform, immigration reform, investment in infrastructure building all will be out in this type of platform adopted by some candidates. A Senate candidate from Alaska suggests Social Security is unconstitutional. By appealing to popular discontent with the Obama administration, and anger with the bank bailouts, what is called the Tea party movement has taken shape. It is built around politicians Sarah Palin of Alaska, Jim DeMint, Rand Paul of Kentucky, and other candidates such as Haley in South Carolina who are using it to tap into discontent. It has the support of Fox News, and Dick Armey former Congressman from Texas who heads FreedomWorks, and libertarian billionaire David Koch. Built around seductive principles of small government, the movement has no clear program considering the diverse positions of the different politicians and different extreme positions adopted, including a general hostility to large corporations without differentiating a BP or a Goldman Sachs from a GE. GE's operation of MSNBC puts it in the same category as a Goldman Sachs. The lack of a clear position by the US Chamber of Commerce, because of its opposition to the Obama administration. The movement carries with it risks, as the Republican party's control of the House of Representatives is not ensured. Ideology of a vague kind has become a substitute for good credentials and experience, in the fast-forward effort by activists such as Dick Armey to capture popular discontent. Says Dick Armey, "We live by the creed 'hard work beats Daddy's money,' " raising serious questions about how a statement like this would help the jobless or the economy. ...

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How companies like United Health are lobbying aggressively to shape the new helathcare legislation to their benefit. BW says the health insurers like United Health, Aetna and Wellpoint are already winning through clever and effective lobbying of Congress. Former Senator Tom Daschle works as aconsultant for United Health. Senator Conrad who has led aeffort to replace the public plan with nonprofit medical cooperatives, which would be a weaker competitive threat to insurers, is also influened by the insurers. United Health's CEO Helmsley and its person working with Congress on healthcare Simon Stevens met with Conrad on June 4. When lawmakers in Congress cite consulting group Lewin Group, that 88 million or 56% of those with employer provided coverage would desert private insurance for a government run program, they are quoting acompany owned by United Health. The Congressional Budget Ofice says these numbers are too high. United Health has used savy presentations on how to cut costs, and help Blue Dog and other Democrats articulate their positions, to gain influence in shaping the plan to their interests. United Health thus counts a lot with Matheson, and Mike Ross of Arkansas, who are prominent with the 52 Blue Dog Democrats. and with Senator Mark Warner of Virginia. And United Health put together an effective lobbbying group, even hiring the chief of staff of House Democratic leader Steny Hoyer. ...

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William Broeksmit built Merrill Lynch's business of trading financial derivatives with Anshu Jain in the early 1990's, and was later hired by Deutsche Bank with Jain for the investment bank of Deutsche Bank. He is found to have committed suicide by hanging, with multiple suicide notes including one to Jain. Coroners say the notes show Broeksmit felt he was being investigated in connection with probes into Deutsche Bank and was being abandoned by colleagues.

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A former Wall Street trader says banning bonuses for investment bankers would take out much of the risk in the financial system. The current system is different from the one he joined as an intern in the 1980's, he says. At that time banking was a bland business, where the head of a financial firm made about the same as a junior trader makes nowadays. Large bonuses of today were rare at the time. What large incentives to take risk in the form of bonuses do is to encourage extreme risk taking, especially when the downside or pain as a consequence of these decisions is passed on to other individuals or institutions, or the government.

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This is an indepth article on Donald Trump's financial holdings, looking at the debt that Trump has built up in his real estate dealings, by Susanne Craig of the NYT. To get a detailed look of this the NYT inquiry into the holdings engaged RedVision Systems, a national property information firm to search publicly available data. Much of Trump's business is shrouded in mystery. But it is well known that Trump has used debt to build his business in a way that is not considered good practice in business, having led to three bankruptcies. Trump says he "is the king of debt." And "he loves debt." The recovery of real estate values during a rescue effort for the country's financial system also helped Trump tackle debt in a way that was not available to other entrepreneurs who suffered from the oil price collapse- one of them McClendon also used debt aggressively and his business collapsed leading to suicidal car crash. You can love excessive debt only if the government supports you with some sort of financial guarnatee misplaced, or you are lucky to get away with it- just ask McClendon. The irony is that the rescue of the financial system led to the low interest rates that hurt savings of the middle and working class, and the lack of help to Main Street in the home foreclosure crisis also hurt the same people disproportionately. The Obama administration policies in this regard rescued the very same business interests such as the New York real commercial estate symbolized by Trump, that are now appealing to those hurt as president Obama worked to let the financial system recover. The intention was never to support excessively overleveraged banks or overleveraged real estate built on debt, but in reality this is what happened. A nation cannot run its financial affairs in this manner of overleveraging to extract high profits that an investment bank such as Lehman or Goldman Sachs does, or a real estate company such as Trump's does- if regulators let them do this. Normally after the financial crisis of such dimensions that it shook the world economy in 2008-2009 leading to fears of a collapse as happened in the 1930's, the same faces would not still be there. But this is a strange period or a transition period where things are being sorted out, and the same faces Blankfein at Goldman Sachs and Trump in New York commercial real estate are with us.  And though the bashing of Goldman Sachs connection to Clinton is evident in the campaigns of Trump and Sanders, the bashing of Trump real estate and finance companies with its overleveraging and bankruptcies is evident in the campaign of Clinton against one posing as a representative of the working class. John Paulson who benefitted by shorting mortgage securities that caused the financial crisis of 2008 is on Trump's top economic advisory team, including the hedge funds and financial interests on Wall Street that Trump is saying support Clinton. No one, not the NYT or WSJ, can answer this, its just the paradox of today's situation. Hillary Clinton can say she has learned her lesson, with her Methodist upbringing and her own supporters such as Robert Reich and others, and break with the past especially as it in no way contributes to her success as president, not one bit. In fact rebuilding the middle class and infrastructure require entirely different connections and views on life, a different imagination.  Trump has billions of dollars and a real estate business that is so complex that even the NYT and property information firms can only say that in the end it is shrouded in mystery. Companies owned by Trump says the NYT from this inquiry have debt of $650 million. Other Trump business activities through 3 passive partnerships owe an additional $2 billion. It is a lot easier for Hillary Clinton to put the speech fees behind her as they have little to do with what she is as a Methodist and a proponent of improving women's lives, than it is for Donald Trump- for whom his business is everything that he is including his art of the deal- to reject who he is. ...

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Barley points out the resignation of prime minister Monti in Italy is not a cause for panic, as his likely successor Luigi Bersani, head of the centre left Democratic party which leads in the polls with its electoral alliance having about 43% support, has committed to following through with Monti's policies and committments to the EU. Berlusconi is not the factor he once was with only 15% support in the polls, and anti establishment parties opposing public corruption such as Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement appealing to younger people have about 20% support changing the political landscape in Italy. Other factors favoring Italy- a lower level of debt redemption in 2013 of 158 billion euros compared to 200 billion euros for 2012 will lower Italian bond issuance, Italy's primary budget surplus, the Italian economy bottoming out, and credit conditions improving. Year to date Italian bonds have returned 19.5%, and he sees no reason for an exit from Italian bonds. If polls continue to show a committment to the policies introduced by Monti, Italian bonds will continue to be attractive for investors. By setting Italy on the path to restoring and strengthening governance Monti has removed a key element for volatility in Italian bonds....

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Deutsche Bank's 500 million euro in profits from trades in bets related to the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR).

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Areas for growth for the Indian drug Industry include the large growing domestic market, the outsourcing by US drug manufacturers, and sales in other developing countries of Asia, Middle East, Latin America and Africa. Analyst estimates are that India will spend $30 billion a year on drugs to improve care for its people in the next 10 years up from $8 billion today. And the distribution network is being developed by drug companies insdie India to reach more people. Also companies like Pfizer plan to double outsourcing of manufacturing drugs from 10% today to 20%.

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Krugman talks about the misunderstandings and the whole lot of misinformation that comes from advertising and political commentary. With one man telling a Congressman at a town hall meeting: "keep your government hands off my Medicare." In apolitically charged atmosphere this makes rational decisions in acalm thoughful environment difficult or impossible- when the influence of lobbying by the health care industry and the influence of interests on behalf of patients and other interests have already created a difficult situation.

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The influence of lobbyist on members of Congress just as the Obama administration, having studied the failure of the Clinton submitted healthcare plan try a different strategy of letting Congress come up with a healtcare plan. $133 million was spent in the second quarter alone by healthcare industry lobby interests creating headaches for reform efforts and the Obama administration.

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The House Energy and Commerce Committee passes ahealthcare plan with 31 to 28 vote. The Senate version takes adifferent approach. The Senate version has moved away from the employer requirements in the House bills. The Senate committee is moving towards aproposal to require employers to contribute if their workers are getting government assisted insurance coverage. It has also moved away from the surtax on the wealthy in the House bills which is expected to raise $500 billion. Instead the Senate version proposes an excise tax on insurers for health plans that offer generous benefits. Under the current bill being considered in the Senate such a insurance policy tax could raise $180 billion. The Senate Finance Committee is also different in that instead of the public insurance option it offers nonprofit health insurance cooperatives as an alternative. There is agreement between the two parties on anumber of things so the debate will center on the public insurance option, surtax on the wealthy to pay for the plan, and the requirement for an employer mandated coverage for all employees....

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The facts that guide one's understanding of what is happening in Greece relate to the size of the public sector for a small country like Greece, and the failure of people from all classes of society from cab drivers and civil servants to small business and the shipping industry, to pay taxes. These two twin facts and a splurge of spending during and after the 2004 Olympics without proper and correct account keeping, has brought Greece to its present situation. One estimate is that every Greek person would owe 27,000 dollars, that is how much the national debt has swollen to- a massive 300 billion euros debt for a small country. This is 115% of its GDP. And the public sector spending simply went unchecked by different governments trying to win votes. Estimates are that the public sector makes up 40% of Greece's GDP, and government workers are 15% of the active workforce. Not paying taxes has become a societal trait in Greece, as a result the government does not collect an estimated 25 billion euros a year in taxes each year. And this does not include the taxes that would be paid if owners in the Greek shipping industry were to not take advantage of an exemption from paying taxes granted by the government. The result- Greece's socialist government of Prime Minister Papandreou has accepted a $110 billion euro bailout from the European Union and the IMF which comes with cuts in public spending and austerity measures designed to reduce the deficit form 13.6% of GDP to 3% in 3 years. Its important to understand what is happening in Greece, because from Prime Minister Cameron in Britain (with his cuts in government department spending of 25% over 5 years), to Prime Minister Naoto Kan of Japan (with a planned doubling of the sales tax), the mood in Europe and Japan is shifting to austerity measures that would correct excessive government spending. In Greece Papandreou and his ministers are making serious efforts to change a culture of not paying taxes. See the groups and links for Papandreou and Greece....

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A WSJ interview with Jose Socrates, the prime minister of Portugal. Socrates says he supports more European integration in economic matters. The context for this is the meeting of 26 leaders of European nations in Brussels on February 4, 2011. Germany is pushing for major changes in the way the European Union works so that economic integration is coupled with the political integration process. This is now thought to be the only way to make the EU work, and both Germany and France are pushing for this. This is also the price of German financial support to countries like Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain. In an earlier interview with WSJ, Spain's finance minister, Elena Salgado, offered her support to the German plan. Aspects of the economic coordination Socrates supports are pushing up the standard retirement age to 65, which Portugal has done. He is less supportive of de-linking wages to inflation. There he pointed to the 5% public sector pay cut to go into effect this year. Socrates says the challenge for Portugal is "not to be more competitive with lower salaries." He also provided statistics that show that " this is a modern country." Statistics on electronic government tenders, the ratio of computers to children, the percentage of energy from renewable sources. And said people are talking who have preconceived ideas and don't know anything about Portugal. ...

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Britain's banks still owe the government 100 billion pounds ($158 billion) from the bailouts that followed the 2008 financial crisis. The incentivizing of risk by pay structures and bonuses was seen as a big part of the problem. LIBOR manipulation abuses by banks are still on regulators minds. The Financial Conduct Authority and the Bank of England's Prudential Regulation Authority, have set new rules to correct the problem. Earlier EU rules limited bonuses to 100% of salary. The new FCA rules require a 3 year period for traders and risk managers have to wait 5 years for performance awards in full. Top executives have a ten year wait to be certain claw back provisions do not go into effect. Andrey Bailey at the PRA says the rule is designed so "that people in positions of responsibility are rewarded for behaviour which fosters a culture of effective risk management and thus promotes the safety and soundness of individual institutions. "

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Friedman says Obama's 2012 presidential campaign lacks bold vision, a failure to articulate tangible achievements, and owes too much to campaign consultants. He describes it as being developed in test tube fashion. The failure to embrace and strongly advocate his own presidential commission's Simpson-Bowles deficit reduction plan, which could be coupled with long term investment in the productive potential of the U.S. economy, shows the lack of courage to prepare a plan going forward. It is likely to cost support of independent, center and center-right voters in the 2012 U.S. presidential election.

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Polls after prime minister Papademos assumed office show nearly three fourths of Greeks see his appointment as a "positive" step for Greece. The popularity of the Socialist party of Papandreou has suffered the most in public opinion. One poll shows only 11% of Greeks would vote for the Socialist party, compared to 21% for the New Democracy party. The New Democracy party has widened its lead over the Socialists.

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Charlie Rose talks to Nouriel Roubini about his thoughts on the next bubble and his book- "Crisis Economics." He says financial crises don't just happen out of the blue, they don't happen at random, instead they are predictable. Excessive risk taking and leverage have undesirable outcomes which are predictable as they take shape and get overblown. What happened to all the toxic assets? Banks are still carrying these assets hoping and praying that they don't need to be written down. His view coincides with that of Jeremy Grantham and other experts who see a growing danger in a prolonged period of zero interest rates which encourage risk taking. In all the developed economies of the U.S., Europe and Japan, borrowing can be done at zero interest rates. Investment banks are back to huge profits in proprietary trading using money borrowed at zero interest rates. A new bubble is developing that could burst in 2 or 3 years. The value of most risky assets has gone up by 50-80% in the last year. See Shiller's expert view on the danger from declining confidence levels and from higher uncertainty. Roubini says the Dodd bill is not enough. It does little to addresss the "too big to fail" problem as banks actually became larger after the financial crisis of 2008, and are too big and complex to manage. He also points to the risks of not separating proprietary trading from bank holding activities, and the need for something similiar to Glass-Steagall to separate the two. See Volcker's views on that subject....