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Yale endowment grows by $4.5 billion to $44.1 billion at 11% return in 2025. For 1000 students  offered no cost tution for undergrads this was about a $72 million cost in 2025 when tution is set at Yale at $72,000 a year for undergrads. Of 6800 undergrad students about 15% of students offered no cost tution at the cutoff income level of $75,000. This year the cutoff is set at $200,000. Even if this adds 1000 more students this will in 2026 cost Yale a mere $72 million, a tiny fraction of  1.6% of the total endowment gain of $4.5 billion in 2025. What this shows is that these top tier schools are still wanting to look good but are not really changing a highly flawed system. It is only in 2026 that a new law the Big Beautiful Bill of DJT increased tax on university endowments from 1.4% to 8%. Better that government can address the flawed education system with tax money than let the universities in the higher tiers make education less and less affordable, destroying a pillar of the democratic system of government by giving education to only a privileged few. ...

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Tightening of western sanctions on Russian oil supplies and Russian response of threats for further choking of oil supplies, and the increasing uncertainty, are leading to oil prices above $100 a barrel in November 2022. 

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Walter Mead of WSJ offers this view- expect more action from DJT in 2026 not less, than 2025. The president took the US Supreme Court's decision in stride, noting that it lets him do the same thing on tariffs- charge tariffs on countries doing unfair trade with the US- with other tools in trade legislation, just not IIEP rules. On the practical side every country wants to keep its trade agreement with the US said the president- Britain, Japan, South Korea, Germany, China, India. China and India have increased exports in 2025 even with tariffs rules that allow some exemptions. Large trading nations do not want the uncertainty that comes with renegotiating agreements arrived at with much difficulty with the US. This is not mentioned much in the media such as WSJ and NYT which instead  focus on the tariff revenue already collected of $130 billion and its use or refunding. What is relevant is that the purpose of splitting powers beteen the executive branch and the Supreme Court and Congress is preceded to a great extent by the public's ideas about what is fair, of rights of the US to fair trade, and preventing the deindustrialization of US and Europe. Which is why the Supreme Court has tried to tread warily on issue of illegal migrants by millions entering the country, and is trying to tread warily on issue of rebuilding American industry and infrastructure using tariffs to reduce concentration in China and act to restore a fair trading system for the US and the world. ...

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Mead on Greenland and DJT at Davos- he says in WSJ that Europe and US have a lot in common. From the way the media handled it it played right into Mette Frederiksen of Denmark's effort to portray the US in a colonial light when the colonial power on record is Denmark which followed the British, the Dutch and the Spanish in setting up colonial empires, but just failed to compete and sold off its colonies one by one to the US or traded it for territory. Denmark has along dispute with Germany on Schlewig-Holstein. Germany's Merz avoided the rhetoric and his foreign minister Wadephul emphasized importance of Greenland for security of Europe and indirectly of the eastern seaboard of the US. Germany and Italy meet Feb 12 and both coungries will work with the US. Britain's Starmer joined the Nordic countries in protest with its own colonial record providing some of the darkest hours for China during the Opium Wars. Farage and Conservatives see Greenland would be best in US control for US and European security. This means much of Europe is still with the US on the Greenland issue though misrepresentations of the US position by Denmark and many Democrats continue because of a certain inveterate opposition to DJT, with no mention of Admiral Robert Peary's discoveries in north of Greenland in the 1890's (for US Navy), and Democrat Harry Truman's offer of $100 million for Greenland in 1947, going back to Secretary of State Seward's effort to add Greenland to the Alaska Purchase in 1867. ...

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Labour Party MP's are pushing for a confirmatory second referendum on Brexit. 203 Labour Party MP's including 110 MP's from constituencies that voted Leave in the referendum are supporting the call for second referendum. They are asking the Labour Party executive committee to use the European elections to present Labour's view that a second referendum was the way out of the crisis.

The letter from Labour MP's in this move says- "The public wants Brexit to be over, They are looking to the Labour Party to resolve this Brexit crisis.  The way to resolve this crisis is in a confirmatory ballot with the facts of the deal before the British people."

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Total sales of Truth Social are $5 million over 3 years, it cost $40 million raised through convertible notes to finance losses, says this WSJ report. By using financial dealmaking methods this could create $300 million for Truth Social and $6 billion for Trump Media, says WSJ in the report. DWAC shares were set at $10 and are now at $144 with its connections to Trump Media & Technology Group, going up 150% in the last year. Digital World Acquisition is a SPAC meaning that it is a shell company- or special purpose acquisition company in financial jargon- that lists shares on an exchange with the sole purpose of buying a private company and taking it public. Investors buy and shell shares on the expectation of which company it buys and how that company will perform. Trump Media and Technology Group, the parent of Mr. Trump's Truth Social social media company will merge with Digital World Acquisition SPAC and the new company will replace the old with the sticker changing DWAC to DJT. This could happen next week if the majority of DWAC shareholders approve it. This could get Truth Social $300 million says WSJ and Trump Media main shareholder with 60% holding about $3.5 billion in this deal making, says WSJ. ...

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Authorites say that in the Swiss French region ski resort fire sparklers were held too close to the ceiling resulted in the blaze and a flashover. It resulted ina tragedy for Switzerland with 40 killed and 115 injured many Swiss and from Germany, France and Italy. The Guardian shows pictures of the bar at the time of the fire.

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Saks on Amazon fails to get luxury goods on Amazon- the Saks Neiman Marcus merger and $400 million Amazon investment that soured. Some parameters looked good but only $100 million sales in first year. The effort fails. Amazon is trying to break into luxury goods market by sponsoring the NYC Metropolitan Museum of Art's 2024 and 2026 Gala.

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The low or zero carbon footprint goal of electric cars is achieved only by use of 100% renewable energy.

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482,000 VW owners in the U.S. and 11 million worldwide face the uncertainty of waiting for VW to find a technical solution to these cars on the road with highly polluting diesel engines. Resale prices of VW are declining.

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Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the IMF says that as government borrowing around the world surges, interest rates will go up. Governments borrow by selling bonds to investors, and to attract investors the government competes with stock and corporate bond markets for investor's money, leading to rising yields for investors. As the confidence has returned to corporate bond markets this is already happening. From the end of 2008. the yield on the benchmark 10 year Treasury note has increased by one and ahalf percentage points, rising to 3.54% from 2%, the sharpest upward movement in 15 years. In Germany the yield on German 10 year bonds has also risen, rising to 3.57% from 2.93%. Similiarly British bond yields have risen to 3.78% from 3.41%. Congressional Budget Office estimates are that net government debt for the USA will rise to 65% of GDP at the end of fiscal 2010, from 41% at the end of fiscal 2008. In 2009 and 2010 the US government will sell $5 trillion in new debt, according to Citigroup. A decade from now the government's outstanding debt could equal 82% of GDP, or about $17 trillion. Every one point rise in interest rates costs the Treasury $50 billion annually over a few years, and Kenneth Rogoff estimates that this could reach $170 billion annually if the average yield on 10 year Treasury note goes up to 4.7%, as the Congressional Budget Office estimates. This will dampen the effects of stimulus spending. It is a big issue says Rogoff. A year ago under old policy and assumptions before the financial crisis the Congressional Budget Office projected outstanding debt at $5.3 trillion in 10 years. Now the estimate is $17 trillion, which is triple the old number and an increase of $11 trillion. A recovering economy would make these numbers less relevant. But with struggling industries like autos and banks needing more help from the government, and with consumers having to reduce a mountain of debt, a weak economy for a long time and small growth for a decade would make this a story that won't go away. Rogoff says its like what happened to the subprime borrowers, people assuming that the funding is always going to be there. In 2009 and 2010 Citigroup says, the Euro zone countries will sell nearly 1.6 trillion euros or $2.6 trillion in new debt, and Britain will offer 490 billion pounds or $799 billion in new debt. Over the next decade this would slow Europe's recovery and prolong the downturn. Britain faces a bigger problem in the near term as Britain's governmetn debt equals 55% of GDP, and Standard and Poors estimates it could approach 100% by 2013. South America and Eastern Europe will also face the situation of rising rates. Asian countries like China with lower levels of debt are in a better situation, IMF's Blanchard says....

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Here is the situation for India for Fertilizer and LPG gas supplies in Iran War March 14 2026- Vaishhnav says 62 lakh tons available 10 more than last year of urea fertilizer. This means India has adequate coverage for the May planting season of fertilizer. On LPG for household cooking India has shifted industry supplies to cover the home cooking gas needs. It is also working on passage of its LPG ships through the Hormuz Straits. Of the Indian ships carrying LPG -22 vessels trying to cross Hormuz Straits, 3 made it though in the last few days. India is in touch with Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council and through its position in Bric's to get safe passage for LPG carrying ships. Six of the ships carry LPG and one carries LNG of the 22 ships waiting to cross the Hormuz passage.

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It comes as a shock to central banks and is pressuring governments- the food price explosion that won't go away even as energy prices are moderating. OECD graphs in this WSJ report show food prices up in 2023 over the prior year by 15-20% in France, Germany and Britain, compared to 5-10% in the US, Canada and Japan. In France households have cut food purchases by 10%, and in Germany by 10.4% over prior year in the largest drop since records were being kept in 1994. In Britain the statistics agency shows that 40% of the poorest 20% of people are cutting back on food purchases. Ludovic Subran who worked at the UN World Food Program says it is an "access problem." Food production has not dropped, people just can't afford to pay the prices. In Britain The Resolution Foundation says higher food prices since 2020 means the British public by summer 2023 will have to pay more in food bills $35 billion more than the 25 billion pounds for energy bills. Policymakers call higher profit margins by retailers as a possible cause as in world commodity markets food prices are falling since April 2022. Andrew Baileyof the Bank of England says it is the "fourth shock to inflation" after the supply chain bottlenecks, the energy price increases from the war in Ukraine, the tight labor markets. In Italy, Spain and Portugal governments have offered sale tax relief, in France and the UK government is leaning on retailers to curb price increases. ...

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Canadian tar sands oil production from Alberta faces increasing competition from production by Bakken oil fields in N. Dakota. The increasing production from Bakken fields in the U.S. and the lack of pipeline space to bring oil from Alberta to the U.S. is putting the more costly projects on hold. The costlier projects have costs of about $100 a barrel with crude prices dropping below $90 in the U.S. Projects using steam to get bitumen to the surface are viable at $50 a barrel, other projects that require mining the bitumen to make synthetic crude have costs upwards of $100 a barrel. Costs are rising quickly with the cost of geoscientists going up 14.5% in 2012 and salaries over 200,000. Production workers make $35-$39 an hour and can make about $170,000 a year. The boom has pushed costs higher each year. Suncor Energy, the largst producer, is reviewing the viability of large planned multibillion upgrading and mining projects and cutting capital spending in 2012 by 11%. By 2020 oil sands output is forecast to double from the 2011 figure of 1.6 million barrels a day, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. In 2012 about 50% of production is from the costlier mining operations....

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After losing 100 ships in the Irish Sea in 1859 to storms Britain setup the Shipping Forecast in 1861 under Admiral FitzRoy. This was the first storm warning system on which British ships depended for the next 100 years and most of the period Britain ruled the high seas. In 1925 the first long wave transmission of Weather Shipping went out from the Air Ministry in London. Millions depended on the forecast. For eons says Grace Linden in NYT there was nothing but stars and estuaries, the wind and the shore. The old supply chain of the Industrial Revolution in Britain was based on shipping, and on the shipping forecast, and too the realms of exploration all the way to the new continent of Australia, so a national treasure.

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VW's Scout Motors plans in 2026 to sell direct to buyers. A Scout Motors VP says of VW's plans- “We have heard over and over again, ‘Please give me an alternative. You see that there is very little trust in auto dealers today.”  Dealers have lobbied to have the laws in US set so that no one else but dealers can sell cars. Yet this may be becoming an outdated way to sell cars if car makers can provide good service over 10 years to buyers and make the whole process of buying and owning a car a pleasant experience for owners. It is far from that today and the experience is not one that is consistent in quality and have ease of use as the experience varies with each dealer and can change with a single dealer over time, quality is not assured.

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British MP raises issue of Arab Gulf countries providing 37% of China's oil imports, excluding Iraq 27%, vs 11% from Iran and 20% from Russia- 2024 US EIA. Tom Tugendhat says China has to balance its interests in the region after the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, between Iran, Gulf monarchies, and Russia. China also faces a more credible choice of accelerating the development of renewable energy in the same way that India and the European Union face. US will act as a supplier of last resort  adding Venezuelan and other supplies but temporarily as the entire Middle East region poses quandaries for China, the US, and India, European Union. The quandary stems from the irreconciliable differences between religious sects in the region, post 1950 ideological and religious militancy,  in which neither China, India, the US, Russia or the European Union wants to get drawn into after 5 decades of bitter experience in the Middle East.

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FIFA's $3 billion in revenue from ticket sales is 3 times what it was in Qatar, prices per game are double that in Qatar. What's going on? FIFIA is being accused of price gouging practices by the Attorney Generals of New Jersey and New York. Six games including the finals are to be played in the NY-NJ area. FIFA's Infantino says it will use $11 billion in soccer revenues (90% of tickets sold for the World Cup in the US/Mexico) for this nonprofit to do soccer projects around the world.  Fans are not happy with the way FIFA is extracting higher prices to put visiting the game beyond the reach of ordinary households. Shouldn't making  it possible to watch the game for ordinary income soccer fans also be part of FIFA's responsibility- instead of taking the opportunities for visiting soccer fields away from ordinary income people. 

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Kerala and Tamilnadu states with declining fertility, migration and ageing society are outliers in India with about half its population under the age of 25. About 600 million people in India are in the 18-35 age group- a clear case of rising aspirations society is happening in India at the very time that the US and European Union are looking at India for the future with shared values of representative democracy, open societies, and building a new supply chain in Asia. This BBC report looks at the state of Kerala where migration is leaving parts of the state only with elderly people. About 10% of the $100 billion in remittances each year from Indians overseas come to the state of Kerala. Life span is about 75 years in Kerala exceeding the national life span of 69 years. However this is looking at it backwards as India remains a vibrantly young country even with the advances in longevity where much of India is close to age 70 years in longevity and advances in medical care and health are taking place at a rapid pace. The problems of Kerala are an outlier for India. ...

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Indian and Chinese leaders agreed to increase trade from the current $60 billion to $100 billion by 2015. China agreed to open its consumer markets to Indian pharmaceuticals, information technology and agricultural products to better balance trade between the two countries. During the first 10 months of 2010, China exported goods valued at $32.9 billion dollars to India and India exported $17 billion to China.

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The Biden administration is targeting 6000 "temporarily unavailable" charging stations for replacement as part of its effort to ensure EV drivers do not have difficulty when going into charging stations. $100 million is being allocated for this effort.

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Hiking in the French Hautes Alps from beginning in Le Bourg d' Oisans, just south east of Grenoble on the 112 mile long trail through Ecrins National Park. The route is the GR54 Tour des Ecrins.

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Risk is inherent in investing. It just needs to be understood well and grasped. There is a lesson in here that some risk is necessary, depending on one's risk horizon and it does not have to be Argentine bonds. Argentine 100 year bond and US Treasury 30 year bond returns 2017-2025 show quite a surprise.  50% return for 2017-25 on Argentine 100 year bonds vs -10% on US Treasury 30 year bonds. It shows the nature of emerging market risk says the WSJ- political risk. At one point the Argentine bonds showed a 50% loss, yet investors willing to stick through the downturn did better than expected, much better. The recovery did not start till Jan 2024 though, 7 years later. In this case the risk was the pandemic in addition to political risk of Argentine earlier defaults but the recovery took place years after the pandemic declined and with the election of Milieu as president.