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On May 10, 2011, prime minister Naoto Kan of Japan says the plan for nuclear energy to account for half of Japan's energy needs will be rewritten from scratch. This will mean Japan will have to look at renewable energy and other sources seriously to complement a tightly regulated nuclear power energy source. In the past Japan has not given the emphasis to renewable energy that it has received in countries like Germany. The pro-nuclear lobby has also worked against the development of other renewable energy sources.

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As Turkey's trade ties with the other countries in the Middle East and Asia increase there is less support for joining the European Union. In 2004 12.5% of Turkey's exports went to the Middle East, today this is up to 20%. This figure is expected to increase after the Arab Spring and new economic opportunities in the region, according to one business group leader. Turkey's exports to Europe in 2010 were about 56%. As Cyprus takes the rotating presidency of the European Union in July 2012, Turkey plans to boycott the presidency and freeze negotiations. In 1974 Turkey invaded Cyprus and set up a rival government in the Turkish part of Cyprus. The talks may be abandoned if no progress is made by 2014, according to Turkish officials. Turkish public opinion is also shifting away from favoring joining the EU. Surveys by the German Marshall Fund show 38% of Turks saw membership as a good thing in 2010, compared to 73% in 2004.

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Joe Kaeser, CEO of Siemens AG, meets Russian president Putin in Moscow on March 26, 2014. He also had talks with Gazprom chief, Alexei Miller. Siemen's has invested 800 million dollars in Russia in the last 2 years. Siemens sales in Russia are 2.17 billion euros, 2.9% of the company's revenue. Germany's total trade with Russia is 56.3 billion euros for 2012. Eckhard Cordes, chairman of German industry group Ostausschuss, representing German companies with investments in Eastern Europe, met with Russian officials and Alexei Mordashov, CEO of Severstal metals group. He then briefed the German government on his talks. Chancellor Merkel says dialogue is also part of government policy: "Business contacts are still taking place and I am not interested in seeing the situation escalate, but rather am working towards a de-escalation." Exxon has major investments in Russia and deals with Russian oil companies and the Russian government for oil exploration. Exxon CEO Tillerson has taken a similiar approach....

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Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the IMF says that as government borrowing around the world surges, interest rates will go up. Governments borrow by selling bonds to investors, and to attract investors the government competes with stock and corporate bond markets for investor's money, leading to rising yields for investors. As the confidence has returned to corporate bond markets this is already happening. From the end of 2008. the yield on the benchmark 10 year Treasury note has increased by one and ahalf percentage points, rising to 3.54% from 2%, the sharpest upward movement in 15 years. In Germany the yield on German 10 year bonds has also risen, rising to 3.57% from 2.93%. Similiarly British bond yields have risen to 3.78% from 3.41%. Congressional Budget Office estimates are that net government debt for the USA will rise to 65% of GDP at the end of fiscal 2010, from 41% at the end of fiscal 2008. In 2009 and 2010 the US government will sell $5 trillion in new debt, according to Citigroup. A decade from now the government's outstanding debt could equal 82% of GDP, or about $17 trillion. Every one point rise in interest rates costs the Treasury $50 billion annually over a few years, and Kenneth Rogoff estimates that this could reach $170 billion annually if the average yield on 10 year Treasury note goes up to 4.7%, as the Congressional Budget Office estimates. This will dampen the effects of stimulus spending. It is a big issue says Rogoff. A year ago under old policy and assumptions before the financial crisis the Congressional Budget Office projected outstanding debt at $5.3 trillion in 10 years. Now the estimate is $17 trillion, which is triple the old number and an increase of $11 trillion. A recovering economy would make these numbers less relevant. But with struggling industries like autos and banks needing more help from the government, and with consumers having to reduce a mountain of debt, a weak economy for a long time and small growth for a decade would make this a story that won't go away. Rogoff says its like what happened to the subprime borrowers, people assuming that the funding is always going to be there. In 2009 and 2010 Citigroup says, the Euro zone countries will sell nearly 1.6 trillion euros or $2.6 trillion in new debt, and Britain will offer 490 billion pounds or $799 billion in new debt. Over the next decade this would slow Europe's recovery and prolong the downturn. Britain faces a bigger problem in the near term as Britain's governmetn debt equals 55% of GDP, and Standard and Poors estimates it could approach 100% by 2013. South America and Eastern Europe will also face the situation of rising rates. Asian countries like China with lower levels of debt are in a better situation, IMF's Blanchard says....

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After the secession of South Carolina in late December 1860, for a brief period New York city's governing body, the Common Council, considered secession to become an independent city state. Pro-independence position was because as an independent city state, similiar to the northern German port cities, New York could keep to itself the tax revenue of $56 million- tariffs on imported goods collected at ports- as two thirds of imports by value passed through New York. The state's merchant class was pro-south, especially as most of the cotton exports passed through New York. New York made 40 cents on every dollar that Europeans paid for cotton from the South. The money came from warehouse fees, shipping, insurance and profits. Cotton helped build most of the mercantile buildings in lower Manhattan and rows of upscale brownstones. Wall street businessmen and The New York Herald newspaper opposed Lincoln's election. The New York Daily News was edited by the mayor's brother, Benjamin Wood, and it warned working class whites about competing with emancipated black labor. New York financiers even threatened to stop buying federal bonds. At which point Horace Greeley, pro-Union publisher of the New York Tribune, urged the Treasury to sell bonds directly to individuals. What changed all this was the firing of the cannon at Fort Sumter on April 12, 1861. Hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers gathered in a patriotic rally in Union Square on April 20. New York quickly declared its support for the Union alongside other Northern states that April. ...

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The transfer of high speed rail technology by Kawasaki to China, starting with deals made in 2004. Kawasaki did this fearing that other competitors would win the business. It transferred the technology believing that it would be years or decades before China would develop its own capabilities and compete with high speed rail manufacturers in Japan and Europe. Kawasaki says the understanding was that the transferred technology would be used inside China, and not for export. China insists it has improved on the technology that was transferred with its own innovations, and it has the right to compete in the world high speed rail market. A high speed rail line between Shanghai and Beijing is being built using Chinese technology by China South Locomotive and Rolling Stock Industry Corporation (CSR), to cut the time from 10 hours to 4 hours. This is part of a network that will be extended to 9700 miles by 2020 according to the government's plan. As part of its export of high speed rail China Railway Construction Corporation is developing a high speed rail line connecting Istanbul and Ankara. China is bidding for contracts in Brazil and in the USA. The issue of transferring technology is becoming a sensitive one for Germany, Japan and the USA. It means transferring the technology as the price of getting a share of the Chinese market, but paying the price later on with competition from Chinese competitors in the same industry. China is developing its own civilian aircraft that would compete with the Boeing 737 and the Airbus 320. Min Zhu, special advisor for the IMF and former deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, told the Wall Street Journal CEO Council, that China's share of advanced machinery manufacturing could reach 30% of global exports by 2020, from 8% today. ...

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Evern though the Detroit carmakers initial quality as measured by J.D. Powers Initial Quality Survey is slightly higher than Japanese carmakers in pickup trucks, the Japanese carmakers still have a lead in the more popular cars and in crossovers. The Prius is made in a factory in Japan which ranks as one of the highest in quality. Quality is higher at plants in Japan for Toyota cars, and a bit lower here in the states for Toyota plants. Its on a par with Ford for the Toyota cars made in the USA. As the quality gaps shrinks to near zero between the quality of American and Japanese cars made in the USA, Toyota continues to maintain its edge in quality for its plants in Japan over both the Americans and the Germans. And the one carmaker that intends to surprise is Hyundai which surpasses Toyota, Honda, Ford and Chevy in quality and does this with a lower price. Consumers are noticing and making the switch, as Hyundai's market share is increasing. See Hyundai link. Here are some of the results. First the plants that produce the best quality, as measured by the J.D. Powers Initial Quality Survey. A survey of 80,900 cars between November 2008 and February 2009, for the first 90 days thses cars were driven, using the number of problems per 100 vehicles. All numbers refer to problems per 100 vehicles. Toyota plants in Japn that scored highest- Higashi-Fuji at 29 making Lexus SC and Toyota Corolla, Fuijimatsu at 30 making the Prius, Kyushu at 34 making the Lexus ES and Highlander. At the next level German plants, Bremen at 40 making the Mercedes Benz Classes- C, CLK, SL, and SLK. Daimler in E. London, S. Africa at 38, and BMW at 40 in Dinggolfing, Germany. And a cluster of Japanese and American plants in the USA that produce cars of comparable quality. Honda in E. Liberty Ohio at 41, making the Honda Civic, CRV and Element. GM at Oshawa, Ontario, at 42 making the Buick LaCrosse and Chevy Impala at 42. GM at Bowling Green, Kentucky at 43, and Toyota, Georgetwon, Kentucky making the Avalon and Camry at 43. What is notable from the last survey in this highly competitive market is the following. 1. Hyundai at 91 problems per 100 vehicles surpasses Honda at 95. Better quality at a lower price, so its no wonder Hyundai is gaining market share and is the new carmaker gaining a presence in the USA. 2. Toyota is at 101, Ford at 102, Chevy at 103, so the difference now in carmakers quality is perception, perception, perception. Its about lifestyle, what you like to be associated with and what you want your friends and neighbors to think about you in your choice of car, younger buyers who are the next generation that makes or breaks your business, the new trendy things among younger people, and design that appeals to them. 3. VW is at 112. So even though there is aggressive marketing and VW is picking up some market share with the Jetta, it still lags slightly in quality. 4. The American car makers still lack consistent quality. You have the Buick at 117, GMC at 116. Ford with Lincoln at 129. The Koreans with Kia at 112. 5. Chrysler is at the bottom of the list. Dodge at 134, Chevy at 136, Jeep at 137. THe lack of resources, changes in management and ownership, and the distractions of bankruptcy and dealership closings, and most of all dire lack of resources including the layoff of large parts of its engineering talent, all hurt. 6. GM sold Saab, Ford sold Land Rover and Jaguar. The neglect of Saab shows with Saab at 138, and Ford's distraction during the last 3 years shows with Jaguar at 134 and Land Rover at 150. also. 7. In summary Ford has done well overall, Toyota is coming up short in the USA and resting on its laurels, GM has a perception gap with younger buyers, Hyundai looks like a winner with both price and quality, and VW has work to do. ...

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Ten year euro denominated bonds of Portugal had a yield of about 3.58% in June 2014, down from about 6% at the beginning of 2014. Ireland's 10 year bonds have a yield of 2.36%, down from 3.42% at the beginning of 2014. In comparison 10 year German Bunds yield about 1.25% in June 2014. There is strong investor demand for the higher yield on these bonds in a low interest rate environment. Portugal exited a 78 billion euro three year bailout without getting a precautionary credit line which was seen favorably by credit ratings agencies.

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How the Cowley plant stands as a fine example of how foreign investment has helped regenerate the area around Oxford university. BMW has invested more than $560 million in the plant since 2000 and in April 2007 the plant produced its millionth Mini a car based on a contemporary design of the old Morris Mini car. BMW has with its investments contributed about 55,000 jobs and $5 billion to the British economy in 2004 according to Oxford Economic Forecasting. UK received foreign investment that was 37% of of its gross domestic product in 2005, higher than France 28%, germany 18%, and the USA 13%, according to figures from the United Nation Conference for trade and Development. It has helped the British economy as the unemployment rate is lower than most of the EU countries. In the financial services industry a lot of foreign investors from USA, Germany and Switzerland have bought British firms and the financial services industry has thrived with all the international presence and Britian has increased its position as a centre of global financial services....

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As the popularity of left party Podemos increases before the upcoming elections in Spain, it comes under increasing attack from the governing party and the Ciudadanos party for advisors from Podemos giving economic advice to the failing Maduro government. Venezuela's economy is in dire straits with high inflation and shortages. Podemos appears to have overtaken the Socialist party in Spain to become the second largest political party. The leader of Podemos, Pablo Iglesias, and other Podemos leaders are cited as having done advisory work for the government in Venezuela.

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Consumer spending boom is over and when you look at the detail in the government numbers on spending consumer spending is already declining. So the idea that consumer stocks like P&G, J&J and Coca Cola and Kimberly Clark will hold up better than other stocks is a mirage. Just this week the idea that stocks of companies doing a lot of business overseas and in infrastructure will hold up better turned out to be an illusion as GE fell by 12% in one day, April 11, 2008, because of earnings shortfalls in its finance units as a result of the new climate in the credit and financial markets. Consumers spent heavily. If consumer spending had continued the trends from the 1990's then it would have gone up $3 trillion less today. It would have been 70% ratio of household debt to GDP, right now its close to 97% of GDP. Some of this $3 trillion estimate of Business Week economist Mandel using Fed data will be what the American consumer will be dealing with as he reduces spending in the years ahead. According to OECD data the ratio of household liabilities to disposable income (charts P11 of BW, April 21, 2008) is close to 1.0 in France and Germany which is contrary to what one would expect considering the more conservative spending there especially Germany, exceeds 1.0 in Japan, and far exceeds 1.0 in the US, and in Canada aabout 1.3, with the highest ratio in Britain at a whopping 1.7, using a ballpark view of the charts. This suggests that Britain is way off the charts in spending, see the link to this so expect spending to be hit hardest in Britain and with financial services being a bigger part of the GDP and the economy in Britain expect higher unemployment in Britain than the rest of Europe....

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Ulrich Volz of the German Development Institute says the $250 billion the IMF has- counting the $100 billion Japan has contributed- may not be enough to prevent some countries in Eastern Europe and Asia or Latin America from defaulting. Especially because a lot of debt is coming due and has to be renewed. There may be some sovereign country defaults. Even China and India have a lot of debt coming due. India and China have external debt payments of $260 billion and $2.4 trillion respectively this year. According to ING Wholesale Banking emerging market governments and companies have to repay some $6.8 trillion of debt, bonds, loans and interest payments and trade finance, and this excludes any debt taken on for stimulus. Russia has $600 billion to renew this year. Latin American governments according to Harvard economist Hausmann need to rollover $250 billion in debt. The US and developed countries are soaking up a lot of funds, with the US eexpected to issue $2 trillion in government bonds, and the big developed countries placing another $1 trillion. So there will be severe competition for limited capital. Mr Volz suggests a Global Support Fund to which the developed countries would contribute to help emerging market countries....

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This article by the Editorial Board of the WSJ says president Biden should back up in action his words that "the United States will defend every inch of NATO territory with the full force of American power." It calls for more front line forces and munitions on NATO territory." Biden has deployed 100 planes and 120 ships through the NATO alliance, and added 12,000 troops to these states to bring the total to 100,000. The Editorial Board of WSJ has this to say of Merkel. After Merkel's statement condemning the invasion in "the strongest terms" and calling it "a turning point in European history" WSJ says, only now does Merkel tell us. WSJ's Editorial Board says that no one did more to make Europe and NATO vulnerable to Russia with her energy policies and failure to spend more on defense. Moreover Merkel helped build the geopolitical situation to the disadvantage of the US, NATO, Europe, and India, in interconnecting the German economy with China's, as can be seen in the logistics of German port city of Hamburg overwhelmingly tied to China's. A lot that Germany has to reflect on as Annalena Baerbock , Habeck, Lindner, and Scholz, and German business, labor, reflect on Germany's vision for the future in the free world, and the lessons of America's Berlin Airlift in 1948. ...

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VW and BMW show strong car sales in Germany, China and the U.S. for the first quarter of 2012, offsetting weaker sales in the rest of Europe.

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There was some element of reckless behaviour when Britain tossed aside misgivings to let Tories let in private sector investing into companies in the water sector. The WSJ now calls it the world's largest failure in private sector water investment. Today there is eColi in the water in River Thames so much so that in the Oxford Cambridge rowing race rowers were advised not to make contact wih the water. It goes back to Victorian sewers which was a problem not tackled by companies interested in profits in areas that wiser men had decided is best done by public sector investment. These are the hidden failures of the Thatcher/Reagan years that are only now coming to light. The company Thames Water loaded up on debt to pay investors dividends while the company failed to upgrade London's sewer system, which has spilled what amounts to 34,000 Olympic swimming pools of raw sewage into the river since 2020. The US has not been so reckless as most water and sewage systems are still publicly owned. Near central London a matted mountain of wet wipes and sanitary products along with sewage washed into River Thames is called Wet Wipe Island. Thames Water took on so much debt $23 billion that it defaulted on its debt. How could this be in a modern developed nation, and what about all the other infrastructure investments in Britain rusting  from the Industrial Revolution that need investment? Tories have let Britain down. There are lessons for the US and Germany, France, India and China. ...

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The astounding fact in this French FR24 report on the Paris Climate Change Agreement and country carbon emissions show that China's emissions accelerated to rise 3 fold in 2015 to about 12 billion tons of carbon emissions from about 4 billion in 2000. US remains at about 6 billion. India is at about 3 billon tons of carbon emissions, about where China was in 2000 when it had about 4 billion tons of carbon emissions. This is shown in the graph on carbon emissions from FR24. The US, European Union graph curves on tons of carbon emissions since 2000 are all flat or declining, India rising slowly from a small base, China's curve is rising straight up from a large enough base at an unbelievable and dangerous rate. What has happened and is it getting worse? China's economy expanded too quickly as globalization was accelerated by banks, and business in the US and Europe, and by the Chinese governments at the local level and the state level. This had negative consequences for US, Europe and China. The too fast growth in China at rates of 10-15% based solely on False GDP indicators that did not take into account damage to the environment and workers was that it hurt manufacturing and working class in US and Europe and contaminated the environment. This was not like growth of Japan in 1960-1980, a smaller country in the way it affected the US and European working classes. Hyper Growth at 10-15% of a large country with 1 billion people compressed over a short period, is cited by Greg Ip in the WSJ as the cause of the negative impact on America.  It hurt China through pollution of rivers and land at an accelerated pace. It hurt China as trade with US and Europe became unsustainable with the loss of manufacturing in the US and Europe leading to a trade war. From these graphs of emissions it now appears that the 3 fold rise in carbon emissions from about 4 billion tons in 2000 to about 12 billion tons in 2015 is the result of unregulated business activity of all those who preferred to push hyper growth in China purely for reasons of profit such as investment banks and corporations in US, Europe, and state or local companies in China.  This has also aggravated inequality in US, Europe and China, and hurt rural populations. Xi Jinping is attempting to correct this in China, Biden is trying to correct this in the US, and Scholz will now attempt to correct this in Germany and the European Union. It is also to be noted that China in 2000-2015 did not have the benefit of the newer technologies that India now has access to, which is why India says it is able to reduce carbon emissions per each unit of GDP by 35% from 2005 levels by 2030. It is this efficiency in producing units of GDP with newer and newer technologies that China lacked in its period of hyper growth 2000-2015 that now looks to have hurt China- with overflow of highly polluting steel mills and other factories which it would prudently and wisely have cut back on. Looking back at this period one sees the wholesale transfer of highly polluting plants in Germany being sold and put up in China, a poor developing country in 2000. Was this a good decision for Germany or for China? In this way the banks and large corporations in the US and Europe who use economic indicators that are limited such as dollar profits, without overall indicators that include negative effect damage to the environment that requires huge investments to correct, problems of trade wars leading to political conflicts, are acting like a person walking blindly in one direction.  With some foresight China and all its trading partners would have done better with slower but more careful Chinese growth of 7-8% that would have better met societal goals in US, Europe and China, avoiding high carbon emissions segments of industries from Day 1. Jinping is doing this in China, and Biden is doing this in the US- cutting out highly polluting factories and segments of industries- but in a climate of mutual distrust, which could have benefitted the world when conducted in a climate of cooperation and trust. The pandemic made the situation even more difficult. Power shortages in factories and blackouts in Chinese cities have led to a reversal of policies on use of coal in China months before the COP26 Glasgow conference and G-20 summit leaving a huge gap. Without the presence of Xi Jinping at COP26 in Glasgow and with Chinese participation uncertain significant progress on climate change is elusive. Estimates by US Renewable Energy Agency is that it would cost $131 trillion to pay for limiting emissions to global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius. Some major share of this cost can be attributed to the increase from about 4 billion tons in 2000 of carbon emissions in China to about 12 billion tons in 2015, increase by 3 times. One can clearly see from this sudden jump in carbon emissions in China that policies of hyper growth with unregulated polluting industries adding to GDP growth figures was bad policy for China, bad policy for US, and Europe, even if it offered temporary profits for individual companies. India has the advantage of learning from this experience and charting its own wiser course as a partner with US, Europe and Japan and by Modi's vigorous efforts in renewable energy. The lesson- look at all indicators of progress, including climate and society, not just economic indicators in profit or dollar terms, take the tough decisions early in regulating polluting companies and industry segments, and bring full and active public participation with transparent access to data on climate damaging activity in real time because climate and the environment we live in free of polluting substances belongs to all the people, belongs to all life on the planet from trees to animals and birds, not companies that can choose to ignore it. ...

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Sarah Wagenknecht is combining socialist credentials with support for workers and unions with a platform opposing migration. She is polling 10-20 percent and is second to AfD right wing party inthe polls in three German states of Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg. Nationally she is polling 9 percent. Not that this is new.It is new only in Germany with CDU/CSU and Socail Democrats, Greens, Free Democrats dominating with right wing anti migration position taken by AfD. Mette Frederiksen in Denmark the Danish prime minister has long felt that migrations hurts working class families and distracts from the main issues facing workers. On this platform she has won elections in Denmark. Scandinavia is moving in this direction taking up working class issues, policies that favor unions and workers, support child care and families, yet opposing migration, but not with extremist right wing ideologies not compatible with democracy. This is a more effective and sensible path for Europe as there are more urgent issues, climate change, child care and families, wages and incomes, cost of living action, why the need to distract the attention, the vital attention needed to these overwhelmingly important tasks. Here it is common sense that should prevail- by keeping migrants out of this, no more distraction from the tasks at hand for the Nations of Europe, and keeping borders safe. ...

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Pensions amount to over 10% of GDP in Hungary, and its becoming harder to run these deficits, as international investors are no longer buying the bonds sold by the government to finance some of these deficits. In Eastern Europe, only Poland and Slovenia have as large a portion of GDP going into pensions. And for a population of 10 million people, Hungary has 3 million pensioners, far too many for the system to be able to support them. It is easy to join the pension system at an early age. The average Hungarian retires at 58, and only 14% of the people 60-64 are working. Getting disability, even if the disability does not prevent working, and becoming a pensioner, is considered attractive in Hungary as the pension payout at about 70% of wages or higher is generous. The pension is about 80,000 forints on average or $350 amonth, and the untaxed pension is close to the average after tax income of $500 in Hungary. Four million working Hungarians support the 3 million pensioners. And employers pay ahefty amount, discouraging new investment in Hungary. For an employee to take home 400,000 forints amonth payroll and income taxes can mount to 1 million forints. Politicians under the Soviet sponsored regime and more recently in the post soviet period have used the pensioner socialist bloc to win elections and are reluctant to disturb the situation. And under the privatization schemes, newly privatized companies simply dumped people off the state payrolls into the pension system , as generous payouts made it an attractive alternative to working. Now at a time when jobs are being lost and the economy is in trouble Hungary is having to address these generous pensions and because of the already strained finances has no stimulus in place for the economic downturn. Hungary imports heavily from Germany and Hungarians have borrowed heavily from Austrian and Italian banks. The deteriorating economic situation has led to a steep decline in its currency. And there is a fierce debate going on in the EU about rescuing Hungary. Deterioration in Hungary could create crises in other Eastern European countries like Czech Republic, Romania and others....