LyrArc Article Gist
When do Democrats support Republicans? When do Republicans support Democrats? Arrogance for one thing, belittling your opponents, not having that humility and listening skills essential to govern. Carter belittled Ted Kennedy for challenging him, his chief of staff Jordan ignored opponents. Clinton spent too much time outside the country as Secretary of State lost touch with working class people. Trump demeaned other Republicans- Esper, Milley, Bush Sr and Jr. and most painfull of all Senator Lankford. Trump came across in the debate with Harris as arrogant and demeaning to Harris.  The hero today is Republican Senator Lankford who authored critical immigration legislation, loyalty to Nation. Profiles of Courage by John F. Kennedy was written in 1954, and covers Republicans and Democrats in Congress over 175 years who had the courage and humility to question the accepted views even at the risk of being set aside by a overzealous public.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Overworking in investment banking has become a serious issue with serious effects on health. It is the focus of a WSJ exclusive report on the casualties coming out of an erratic approach to worklife and health. WSJ says it has become a norm to ignore policies set banks a decade ago after similar death and toxic work situations. Bosses it says make impossible and unreasonable demands and younger workers in deference to this are put in a dangerous situation. All this for $200,000 in entry level positions- now Dimon CEO of Chase JP Morgan asks what can we learn from this, saying there are many people at Chase "who give a damn about the human beings at work in this company." The results delivered are also not what is good for the country. Much of the capital allocation that takes place though investment banking leads to enormous waste and poor investment returns. And this is happening as needed funding for infrastructure and other projects for education health and public services remain unaddressed. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Biden looks set to having DJT at the White House and attending his Inauguration. He has accomplished much says Pat Schumer, Minority Leader in the US Senate. He also believe it or not looks quite healthy and active, and likely to look like that a few short years hence in 2027-2028. It gives Biden who did in one term for Covid response and vaccines, infrastructure investment and rebuilding America, withdrawal from foreign wars, what has never been done before in just 4 years, an opportunity to enjoy life after 40 years of public service. And by letting DJT tackle issues of Border and fentanyl flows from Mexico and China in the first 2 years, of unfair trade that have not been resolved for decades, so that America can benefit from the the best of both parties resources and strengths. Contrary to what so called "smart heads" say the two party system is working by engaging people in an ongoing vigorous debate and bringing fresh faces into public service. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Liberal groups feel president Obama has lost the leverage he had after the McConnell-Biden fiscal cliff deal of Jan. 1, 2013, saying this only sets the stage for talk of spending cuts.

LyrArc Article Gist
Controlling health costs from noncompliance by diabetes patients results in cost savings upto $33,000 per patient for GE. GE's new diabetes Health Plan with United is intended to improve compliance and reduce cost.

LyrArc Article Gist
Peter Orszag's role in the healthcare debate and the formulation of health care policy proposals. One proposal of Orszag, who heads the Congressional Budget Office, is to set up a new agency with powers to cut spending and implement changes in Medicare. Says Orszag, "one of the reasons we have such disjointed and skewed incentives is that we have an excessively political process." At a recent meeting with House Democrats, one Congresswoman said her top priority is winning higher payments for oxygen suppliers, and Orszag was taken aback. For years officials have been trying to cut payments to oxygen and medical equipment suppliers, which are said to be inflated. When a new competitive bidding process was set to take effect last year, industry supporters in Congress were able to delay the plan, and these supporters are still fighting to block changes says the WSJ. Here is a 40 year old Orszag, with degrees from Princeton and London School of Economics, who got his early experience in the Clinton adminstration at age 24. He then followed this with a number of policy oriented jobs, ending with appointment to head CBO in 2007. And he faces the whole system of Congressmen from both parties beholden to interests in the healthcare industry, who provide the donations for them to finance their election campaigns. Dan Eggen describes this in the Washington Post, 7/21/2009. Max Baucus of Montana, and to some extent Grassley of Iowa, are senators from both parties who Eggen points out are beholden to the healthcare industry because of large donations they receive from the interests in the healthcare industry. These interests want to see their payments system protected. The further escalation in health care costs, which would make the whole healthcare system unaffordable even as it delivers poor results, can only be prevented by making cost control an exercize that is not influenced by healthcare industry donations. Jackie Calmes describes the huge hurdles in achieving a deficit neutral move to universal health care in the U.S. in the NYT 6/26/2009. See the link. The exchange between Grassley and Orszag on the issue of the $177 billion in savings needed from the payments to health insurers under the Medicare managed care plans- which allow seniors to obtain Medicare coverage outside the government run program -went as follows. These are dubbed overpayments by outside experts and efforts have been made to cut them in Congress. When Mr Grassley raised concerns about the impact of such cuts in a hearing, -and Grassley has opposed the cut for this overpayment to insurers- Orszag responded saying: "I very firmly believe that capitalism is not founded on excessively high subsidies to private firms. This is what this system delivers right now." ...

LyrArc Article Gist
WSJ Analysis of government data shows on Feb 22, the actual savings from cutting fraud and waste, misspent funds of $2.6 billion less than the $7 billion shown on the DOGE website. Of this 2% of savings are attributed to DEI closures. What it shows is that generating savings is a long term effort requiring weeks, months and years of hard work with patience and perseverance, as shown by the Truman Committee of 1941-1948 of the US Congress during the War and the early part of the rebuilding of Europe. DJT corruption, fraud and waste cutting efforts owe it to the American public to take a long term view similar to the Truman Committee of 1941. That Committee was setup with unanimous support in Congress for Resolution 41 of Senator Harry Truman of Missouri in Feb 1941. This type of unanimous support remains a hope, yet just as the efforts of president Biden were needed for investment in crumbling infrastructure, there is also today the need to see that $4 trillion in the US budget is wisely and prudently spent, even if this effort is led by the opposite party. As the articles alongside show the Truman Committee lasted till 1948 for the better part of the decade. It helped Harry Truman replace Wallace for the Vice Presidency in 1944 under FDR, and within months to the White House till 1952. A period of spending for the Greece-Turkey and Marshall Plan for Germany aid efforts similar to aid to Europe today, on top of the wartime spending comparable to the 5 year effort against the pandemic starting in 2019.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This NYT editorial lists ways in which the NSA violated the law- the internal auditor's report showing NSA broke federal privacy laws, breaking into the communication links of Google, Apple and other data centers, James Clapper Jr., director of national intelligence testifying in March that the NSA was not collecing data on millions of Americans which was "a lie" says NYT, Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court saying one of the practices violated the Constitution, and federal judge Leon's ruling saying the magnitude of phone records collection violated the U.S. Constitution calling it Orwellian. It calls on the Obama administration to end the vilification of Snowden and provide Snowden with incentive to return to the U.S.

LyrArc Article Gist
The fear of arms falling into terrorsit hands has discouraged arms supplies to the poorly armed Free Syria Army. This is having an unintended effect of terrorist groups joining the conflict creating other risks.

LyrArc Article Gist
Germany's views on DJT Putin meeting in Alaska- proceeding to next step of peace talks with European efforts to ensure a peace that holds. A failure by Ukrainian leaders to build a consensus for the foreign affairs of their country bordered by language and cultural ties to the east but wanting to be open to the west, its unique position after 1990 similar to how Austria navigated German language ties to Germany after 1945 but was outside NATO and carried on with an independent foreign affairs friendly with all sides. The Bush, Obama and Merkel administrations did not pay attention to this and made serious errors, leading to further wrong turns by Ukrainian leaders and Russian leaders for prolonged wars. This led to destabilization in the Middle East, in Latin America, and in Europe and the US around migrant flows, refugees, and local wars, with Russia, US and Europe local regimes acting as adversaries that had not happened in this way in the 1960's -1990 period. This is the mess that DJT and Merz are now having to untangle with the help of countries that suffered huge losses in the war Russia and Ukraine who now may have realized what went wrong and offer their cooperation to end the war. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This editorial in the NYT calls for the IMF and the EU to rip up their I.O.U.'s after five years of debt negotiations with Greece and a contracting Greek economy. German public opinion looks at it differently having shifted to favoring Greece's exit from the euro. Chancellor Merkel says "if the Euro fails, Europe fails," what she means by this is that the economic responsibility of countries in the eurozone is a condition for the Euro to succeed. The two sides are far apart as Greece faces a "yes" or "no" vote to remain in the eurozone in the July 5, 2015 referendum.

LyrArc Article Gist
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has called for an "innovative, co-operative and responsible" approach to Brexit, saying that fragmentation is in no one's interest. With the British pound weakening inflation is expected to rise ahead of growth in wages. Speaking at the Mansion House next to the Governor was Philip Hammond, Britain's finance minister, who pointed out that people did not vote for Brexit to become poorer. This report in the BBC points to Hammond's position becoming closer to Mark Carney's following the parliamentary election in June 2017.

LyrArc Article Gist
Studies by Mexico's Interior Ministry show that 62% of the $23 billion in remittances to Mexico by Mexicans living in the U.S. go to the lower middle class. As migration to the U.S. diminishes to zero Mexicans who are illegal aliens in the U.S. are returning to Mexico as small entrepreneurs using earnigs made in the U.S.. This offers them a chance for upward mobility and a return to families that they never had in the U.S., and is aiding the growth of a Mexican middle class. About 12 million Mexicans, or 15% of Mexico's labor force lives legally or illegally in the U.S., according to the Pew Hispanic Center. Experts say that in the first 3-5 years remittances go to help their families, after 7 years the money goes into savings and investment fueling growth of small towns such as Santa Maria in Mexico. About half of Mexico's 112 million people have family living in the U.S., which is having an influence on atttitudes and ways of thinking of the lower middle class that emigrated to the U.S.and is now returning to the country. Other factors are reinforcing the trends such as the lower price of consumer goods with the entry of retailers such as Wal-Mart and Costco into Mexico. Nestle, P&G, and Unilever, all sell at low price points in Mexico. The government's effort to setup a basic safety net subsidizing schooling, health care and food has also helped in this direction. Rapid change in demographics in all of Latin America, including Mexico with a shift to smaller families is creating new opportunities to invest in children for better educational opportunities and working lives....

LyrArc Article Gist
The Bank of Cyprus and the Cyprus Popular Bank (Laiki Bank), passed stress tests given by the EU in 2010 and 2011. By the end of 2010- even as other banks such as Barclays were cutting their Greece government bonds by over 50%- the two banks held 5.8 billion euros of Greece bonds, over $1 billion euros larger exposure to Greece than nine months earlier, according to European regulators. Regulatory supervision failed to alert the banks and the banks risk management failed to see the warning signs in Greece. The Laiki Bank Risk Officer went in the opposite direction actually increasing exposure to Greece, saying in a conference call in August 2010, that he had used the bank's capital position "to deepen selectively some highly profitable client relationships." What went wrong with the stress tests by the EU regulators in July 2010 of these two banks, was that the tests looked at what would happen if economic conditions deteriorated, but did not consider the possibility that government bonds could produce losses. The two banks suffered total booked losses of 4.3 billion euros in 2013 from holdings of Greece bonds. The EU stress tests of July 2010 showed the two banks having total of 572 million in surplus capital. The two banks then went on to issue dividends in 2010-2011 totalling 141 million euros. By March 2013 the Laiki Bank was "on respirator" for a few months, according to the Central Bank of Cyprus, until the 10 billion euro EU bailout in March 2013 with the closing of Laiki Bank and the sharp downsizing of Bank of Cyprus....

LyrArc Article Gist
Chapman points out that the Phillips curve did not hold in low inflation years since 1948 when low inflation was accompanied by low unemployment and higher growth rates. It did hold in the higher inflation years after 1948 when higher inflation was accompanied by high unemployment and low growth rates. So can the Federal Reserve hold onto the idea of a Philips curve hoping that higher inflation will somehow lead to lower unemployment and higher growth as it lowers interest rates. What it may end up doing is hurting the dollar, while increasing inflation and leading to lower growth. Without the demand for Treasurys the way there is now because of the confidence in the dollar, interest rates would rise and domestic savings would be diverted to service the debt, and output would be lower and prices higher. McKinnon at Stanford and others have been arguing the case for a strong dollar in the WSJ recently. Chapman is accepting that interest rate cuts may help the economy but only by a little bit in the current situation and temporarily because there are too many forces at work pushing the economy into recession. So the comparitively small dividends from interest rate cuts should not be allowed to give up the bigger dividends from having international confidence in the dollar not erode. Especially as the current market imbalances cannot be fixed by the mechanism of interest rates, and its not the Fed's job to fix the considerable challenges facing the economy today which will take time to work out and require political leadership from Congress and a new President....

LyrArc Article Gist
Peggy Noonan says in this WSJ article that Republicans should not shy away from telling president Trump that his erratic style is affecting the entire Republican agenda on taxes, infrastructure, and economic growth. This follows the firing of FBI Director Comey, the president's tweets about Comey as a "nut job" and the media coverage, followed by appointment of a Special Counsel. Her concern goes back to U.S. democracy. Her friends in Europe tell her the U.S. is having a nervous breakdown with the behaviour of the Trump administration. She tells Republicans to tell president Trump that democracy is a serious thing, not something to be toyed with.

LyrArc Article Gist
House Democrats in the U.S. see the Republican health care plan making the same mistakes in 2017 that the Democrats made in 2008. With the passage of the bill in the House of Representatives with a vote margin on May 4, 2017, rushed through in the way the Obama bill was also rushed through, the nation remains as divided as ever on the issue of health care. The Republicans favoring limiting subsidies and cutting Medicaid, and using some of the savings for a tax cut. The Democrats favoring mandated coverage for all and large subsidies to reduce the number of uninsured Americans, with expansion of Medicaid for very low incomes. Democrats in the House say the Republican House bill will result in Republicans losing seats in the House in midterm elections.

LyrArc Article Gist
Ethiopia has about 1.1 million internally displaced people, with only Syria and DRC Congo having more displaced people from conflict. The country of 110 million people has about 80 ethnic groups spread out over 9 provinces with regional nationalism. Drought, corruption, and regional nationalism are major problems.  The Tigray region is showing some unrest as reported in The Times. This comes after peace with Eritrea was made by president Abiy Ahmed for which he was given the Nobel Peace Prize. Many of the changes made by Mr. Ahmed after becoming prime minister in 2019 are being done in solo fashion say critics without being institutionalized or consultative, say critics. As a result the situation in Ethiopia where the EPRDF coalition has ruled since 1991 is still precarious. Under Ahmed EPRDF is making efforts at reform and elections for next year.  

LyrArc Article Gist
Cloud computing is a growing $300 billion business, with Amazon a key player having 28% of the market. It competes with Google and Microsoft in cloud computing. Andy Jassy has built the cloud computing business with $51 billion in sales. It generates 10% of sales in the final quarter of 2020 for Amazon but over half the profit. Renting out server space and software to customers is a profitable business compared to online retail. Sales of $12.7 billion in the final quarter of 2020 generated $3.6 billion in profit. And growth a brisk 28% over the prior year quarter.

Satya Nadella ran the cloud computing business at Microsoft before becoming CEO. IBM named a new CEO from this business that revived growth. Now Andy Jassy is promoted to CEO at Amazon in the sequence of new CEO's from cloud computing.

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in the WSJ from Singapore says Chinese authorites are asking local governments to prepare for the potential downfall of housing developer Evergrande which was built on ever growing debt. This was described as getting ready for a possible storm in the event there is a disorderly collapse. Beijing is unwilling to bail out the developer. For years the Chinese government has discouraged speculative investment in housing saying "housing is for living not for speculation." This had little effect on housing developers and housing prices in China making housing smaller and smaller in size and beyond the reach of average households.

To get some idea of the magnitude of Evergrande's expansion it has 800 projects in progress spread over 200 cities in China. It is unable to complete many of these projects, now that it is unable to pay contractors and suppliers.

LyrArc Article Gist
This is the Washignton Post's view of what is remarkable about the NYT reporter Schmidt's interview with Mr. Trump.

Trump says he hopes Mueller is fair, and will be fair, is going to be fair. Yet that is not what Conservative media is saying. Trump has criticized the Justice Department. Here he says that he the President can do what he wants with the Justice Department, using the words "absolute rights," for the president's powers. This is a misreading of the powers of the Presidency under the Constitution. If the president thinks this hope is not realized of Mueller acting fairly it could lead to a situation in which the president acts beyond the powers of the president, creating a new gap between Congress and the president and overreaching of powers.

LyrArc Article Gist
After sanctions were lifted in 2016 on Iran India and China increased oil imports from Iran. China and India ramped up imports each country importing 900,000 barrels of oil per day in 2016. Since then China has reduced imports from Iran to 500,000 and India has reduced imports to 600,000 in anticipation of possible sanctions. India received a limited waiver from sanctions for oil paid in rupees before sanctions were lifted. 

Chinese officials say alternatives for importing oil are available, and that it is more concerned about the price of oil.

Oil prices affect development because as in the case of Indonesia and India reduced oil subsidies and savings can be diverted into infrastructure development in Asian countries. The recent surge in the price of oil adds to the pressure on budgets and fiscal deficits in developing countries.

LyrArc Article Gist
Lopez Obrador agrees to commit 6000 National guard troops to police Mexico's border with Guatemala in a deal with president Trump. Trump uses tariffs on Mexican imports as tool to change Mexico's position that allowed the flow of increasing numbers of migrants fleeing Guatemala through Mexican territory. Trump insisted that Mexico should change its laws to accept these migrants as lawful residents in Mexico saying in effect that a developing country is just as responsible to take in migrants on a humanitarian basis as a developed country like the U.S. with its own issues of poverty and lack of funding for social services.

Mexico then accepted a compromise solution with vigorous border policing to reduce the flow of migrants. This reversed the earlier policy of Mr. Obrador that welcomed migrants without giving these migrants residence in Mexico.

LyrArc Article Gist
Effects of the pandemic on U.S. and global business, the U.S. and global economy from the WSJ.

Imagine 700 of 763 aircraft, most of Lufthansa's planes parked. Lufthansa is in pause mode, having reduced its capacity by 94%. Most passenger airlines have become cargo airlines.

New car registrations in France have fallen 72%. Nissan Renault is not selling anything, and there are no revenues say company representatives.

100,000 sailors on cargo ships are at sea with no hope for landing as shipping comes to a standstill.

Workers on New York's power grid spend the night on trailers in parking lots and in confined spaces with no more than 6 persons on a team. If one got sick he could infect others, and cause a personnel shortage.