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CPC Central Committee Proposal on Formulating the 15th FIve Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (4th Plenary Session 20th Central Committee October 23 2025). It gives the outline of main ideas in domestic and foreign policies that China adopts for the next 15th 5 year Plan to 2030. It shows how China wants to navigate the next 5 years in the world. It gives the first signs that China wants to do Socialist Modernization, Chinese style Modernization of its economic and social structures in this phase. The first impression from this and the 2026 National People's Congress is that China is seeking to work with Germany, with EU and with the US to modernize its economy, not as in the past, but now more sensitive to all the changes taking place in the world. The goals are comprehensive yet presented in modest manner ( no China Dream ambitiously worded goals that had ruffled feathers in the US) presenting China in a way that would win acceptance and integration into the world's leading powers.  ...

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Plans for a peacekeeping force for Gaza. President Biden opposes Israel running the Gaza region after the end of the war. The US looks to Qatar, Egypt, Jordan for assistance in a peacekeeping force. No Arab neighbors support this option of a peacekeeping force while the war is going on. A UN peacekeeping force similar to the one in Korea that settled the Korean War is also an option, as is multinational peacekeeping force that remains in Gaza including Arab neighbors. This would require a settlement for a Palestine state to secure support of Arab neighbors.

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About 565,000 workers are missing in the UK workforce in December 2022. The Guardian asks the question- Will they ever come back? Many left under stress from healthcare work, from the hotel and restaurant business, and from manufacturing during the pandemic. Some took early retirement, some taking care of family members. A similar situation exists in the US. Jay Powell at the US Federal Reserve, its central bank, and Fed Governors including the head of the Federal Reserve for California are working on ways to get these people back. Brian Deese of Biden's National Economic Council is also working to find solutions including better child care and better benefits for workers. Settling the rail strike on terms attractive for workers and getting rid of onerous rules for workers who could not get paid heath care leave in rail companies, are ways the Biden administration is responding.

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Arvind Panagriya, Prof. of Economics at Columbia University, points out the key initiatives of the Modi government in its first four years which will show results in future years for development of the country.  He mentions the Swachh Bharat Mission and cites results that show rural households with toilets are now 84% up from 38%.  By 2019 the whole country will be defecation zone free on the 100th anniversary of the birth of Mahatma Gandhi. The Dhan Jan Yojana DJY accounts opened for rural households are up to 316 million. Aadhar cards for identification are up from 650 million to 1.2 billion. The Aadhar and DJY work together to enable direct transfer of benefits to poor households, eliminating the leaks in benefits transfer and ghost accounts of the period since independence in 1947. Not mentioned by Panagriya is the Health Insurance scheme for lower income households that enable families to survive a sudden medical expense that could put them in dire straits.  These efforts work in a way to change India from the ground up from its villages and rural areas as envisioned by Mahatma Gandhi in the struggle for independence. The land acquisition law amendments were put on hold till farmers concerns could be better accomodated, an area of concern for industrial development cited in an editorial in the Hindu newspaper. Fiscal consolidation and inflation targeting have resulted in an average inflation rate of 4.3% for the 4 years of the Modi government. Inflation was over 9% in the last 2 years of the previous Congress UPA government with GDP growth dropping to 5.9% for the last two years. Average GDP growth for four years for the Modi government is 7.3%, even after the changes to implement GST taxation for one national tax eliminating state barriers in interstate commerce and demonetization to fight corruption and black money. Rate of GDP growth should be higher after the gains from the initiatives and the new GST integration of the country are felt, with increase in investment and FDI, after infrastructure improvements and land acquisition arrangements are made. Transportation infrastructure modernization initiative pushes ahead with the first bullet train in the pilot project for Ahmedabad- Mumbai set to start in 2022. This is a $17 billion project financed for $13 billion by the Japanese government at 0.1% loan for 50 years, moratorium on repayments for 20 years, using E5 Shinkansen series technology. Implementation of this project on a sound financial basis should lead to transformation of the Indian rail network, raising the level of technology implementation across the entire Indian rail system. Such an achievement would rival the first introduction of railways into India in the nineteenth century under the British. A new bankruptcy law is intended to free up capital for investment by putting behind the large number of non performing loans in the Indian banking system. Changes made by the central bank RBI are designed to speed up this process so that loss making enterprises are absorbed, consolidated or shut down, a legacy from the earlier period.     ...

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The issue of high youth unemployment. The bulge in demographics and the emphasis on increasing the number of college graduates without increasing the jobs available, or providing apprenticeship type training and degrees in areas where jobs can be created, has created a major problem in the Middle East. High youth unemployment in the US, Spain and the UK also poses serious problems. Former primer Minister Giuliano Amato of Italy recently told Corriere della Serra: "The older generations have eaten the future of the younger ones." Older workers tend to hold onto their jobs as long as possible as retirement ages are being raised, and they have negotiated higher retirement pensions. In Spain the younger part time workers and immigrant workers are the first to be laid off and unemployment is highest in this group, which is also why the high unemployment has not attracted as much attention there. Younger workers will eventually have to support a higher proportion of these workers in retirement because of the demographics. The shift to higher parttime employment and employment at low wages has also created a class of workers who have no future, as their incomes are low, and are easily laid off. This shift has been taking place in the US, Europe and Japan over the last decade. Germany has fared better because of its long tradition of apprenticeship training, and employers working directly with young students at universities to provide on the job training. The financial crisis of 2008 in the US slowed down many industries and created a shift in industries creating jobs, the result was a larger mismatch of skills of job seekers and new jobs created. One way to address this is more on the job training and working directly with employers, and assistance to community colleges to fill education gaps. ...

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Rising fuel prices are altering buying patterns across airlines, autos, food and other businesses says this report in WSJ. With prices at over $5 a gallon the impact is being felt across the US and other economies. Export of oil from the US for arbitrage opportunities and lack of growth in the shale industry with price volatility, is resulting in shortages of supplies and higher prices. About one fifth of the 8.3% inflation increase in April 2022 in US was from oil price increases. Similar patterns are seen in Europe and other countries. Inflation is expected to last through 2023.

Pent up demand for travel after the pandemic lockdowns means travel by car and by airline is increasing at a time of higher inflation and oil prices. Motorists in the US are making more frequent trips to gas stations as they fill up for a specific dollar amount.

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India produces 60% of the world's vaccines. India's contribution in vaccines is significant as it brings low cost vaccines to countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. India itself has children that in total equal the children in 20 to 30 smaller countries. Prime minister Modi is working actively with GAVI the Global Vaccines Alliance for vaccination of India's children. Mission Indradhanush was one of the first programmes of his administration, intended to vaccinate all of India's children even in the remote areas. A new program was agreed to between India and GAVI for the next five years at the Global Vaccine Summit in the UK opened by prime minister Boris Johnson of the UK on June 4.

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Paul Krugman reviews a book by Robert Gordon, a distinguished American economist and historian, on the improving standard of living for Americans after the war in the period 1940 to 1970. This period brought some of the major changes in the standard of living which have since stalled. Gordon points to the developments in science and technology between 1870 and 1940 providing the largest boost to standards of living as the quality of life improved- especially the conditions in which people lived using modern sanitation, electricity, automobiles, and work saving appliances. The period 1940 to 1970 enabled the spread of this to the country as a whole. The IT revolution's developments occuring between 1990 and 2005 are also behind us. This process between 1870 and 1970, with the followup period to 2000, is seen by Gordon as a one time development in the scale of change and the improvement of quality of life. The future does not hold a similar level of progress in standards of living, says Gordon. Set against the current stagnation in incomes, widening inequality of opportunity, and the political discourse, this review raises important questions about the future. Quality of life potential now rests in improvements through personal involvement in health improvement, improved education, renewable sources of energy, and other ways, which are more soft knowledge improvements than the hard improvements of the past- which may require more personal involvement than in the developments of the last century of progress, with some improvement coming from renewal of the old physical infrastucture using the new technologies available. Just as the developments of the last century required dogged persisitence and effort, these developments will require dogged persistence and effort, with some of the easy stuff currently posing as technological development not qualifying....

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Daniel Henninger says in the WSJ that the debt ceiling will be raised, and Republicans should not be pitting program against program. He says the narrative though should be framed around the trillions being spent by the Biden administration on climate change action, US manufacturing and technology in chips, with interest on debt at over $400 billion a year. Yet this does not take into account that for two decades there has been an overcrowding of US government initiated capital investment for essential needs by massive Tech industry misallocation of funds even as productivity of this capital invested by tech was dropping, with much wasted capital. Today because these essential needs in infrastructure and for manufacturing and technology were starved for so long of capital the productivity of capital in these areas is high and will have ripple effects to help rebuild America.

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The US president says he will make the final decision on the US for the Israel Iran war. He says his supporters support him on seeing to it that Iran was not having a nuclear weapon. DJT says Iran was weeks away from getting a nuclear weapon and that Iran would use a nuclear weapon if it had one.

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Pocketbook issues are taking increasing importance in the French election on April 24. Greg Ip of the WSJ says inflation has risen in importance more than immigration, the war in Ukraine, and other issues related to Islamist separatism. About 45% cited purchasing power as the main issue in a BVA poll, and this is even higher for people who voted for Jean-Luc Melenchon who came within 1% percentage point of Ms. Le Pen in the first round. Greg Ip says that in economic issues France has done better than Germany, Italy or the UK. Unemployment is at 7.4% the lowest since 2008. Economic output has risen more than in Germany, Italy or the the UK since Mr. Macron took office. And one study shows disposable income has risen higher under Macron than under predecessors Hollande and Sarkozy. France also spent heavily to tackle the Covid pandemic's effect on workers and companies. Ip says Macron's efforts to liberalize labor markets, simplify taxes and wage bargaining and make training programs more effective could be the reason. Youth unemployment is the lowest in nearly 40 years, and the number of apprenticeships doubled from 2019 to 2021, according to BNP Paribas. Pisani-Ferry, economist at Sciences Po says compared to past performance the French economy did much better. Le Pen has promised to cut the value added tax to tackle inflation's effect on voters. Macron has said he will be flexible when it comes to raising the age for retirement and pensions and calls Le Pen's lowering the retirement age creating problems for the solvency of the pension system and highly unrealistic.   ...

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Us bombs Kharg Island 15 miles from Iran mainland where most of Iran oil is transported by pipeline from oil fields, then loaded and shipped on oil tankers.90% of Iran oil exports are shipped from Kharg.

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This self portrait by Vladimir Putin about his growing up years in Leningrad and the life of his father and mother during the siege of Leningrad by Germans may offer a better sense of the mind and thinking of the Russian president than the Dresden years when he was a junior Russian official in Communist East Germany (the GDR). It is an interview of the Russian president in 2000 by Nataliya Gevorkyan, Natalya Timakova, and Andrei Kolesnikov over twenty years back. Putin's father suffered severe injuries during the war in the fighting around Leningrad, twice being given up for dead and being dragged wounded across the frozen Neva river to a hospital by a neighbor. His mother was half dead from starvation and his father passed on his food given to him at the hospital. Having gone through the memories of this period affected Vladimir Putin's view of the world and no amount of US or German assurance about NATO's intentions may have erased these memories from childhood. The long period in power and the Covid isolation may have led to  perceptions that were less likely to change so that Putin did his own research and wrote a long paper on Ukraine in 2021 that reflected Russia and Ukraine's long history but did not reflect the changing national aspirations of Ukraine's people in 2022. This may have led to the miscalculation and the errors by both Putin and the leaders Merkel-Bush-Obama that the detailed WSJ report of 20 years of events show to have happened. The WSJ report of April 1, 2022, was titled "Vladimir Putin's 20 Year March to War in Ukraine and How the West Mishandled It." The Social Democrats in Germany under Schroeder and Steinmeier mishandled it by deepening economic integration with Russia as a way to make up for what had happened in the German invasion of Russia, and the Christian Democrats under Merkel with business interests never really grasped the different thinking of the Russian president relying solely on deep economic integration of the EU and Germany with Russia as well as China as an answer. Mr. Bush and Mr. Obama from a distance even less so.  This has led to the miscalculation by Russia under Putin leading to invasion of Ukraine, and the US and Germany being unprepared about taking action to prevent it.  Beyond the key participants and the war damage, there is the enormous damage that is taking place in the mental health around the world after Covid with constant barrage of images of war and refugees streaming into Poland. There is the problem of food imports, of food scarcity in the Middle East, and inflation in food prices for Africa and the Middle East. As Brendan Simms, a Cambridge historian has shown in his book "Europe The Struggle of Supremacy 1453 to the Present," which is now being read by German chancellor Scholz, this has happened before with the UK, Netherlands, Spain, Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Russia engaging in these conflicts that led to prolonged wars and eventually to only small shifts in power. Yet with huge effects for ordinary people caught in the wars such as today's refugees and people struggling to feed their families in Africa and Asia after the effects of Covid on income. Food prices have gone up by 50% to almost double in these countries.   ...

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There is a major contraction in the supply of leased cars to the used car market. This used to be the major source of used cars on dealer's lots. The contraction is so large it will take years to fix, some say 2027. The contraction of leased cars is expected to be 23% from 2024 to 2025 for expiring 3 year leases. Another factor leased cars are a good deal to buy at the end of the lease seeing how sticky used car prices are these days. A 3 year old leased car now costs $28,000 up 45% since 2020, and for new cars it is $48,000 up 25% since 2020 This is significant because a key part of inflation is not only cost of groceries (eggs for example), it is also the cost of cars and housing. For cars used cars are a major part of it as it is basic transportation needed to get to work for a majority of Americans. There are Americans where a car breakdown leads to a loss of a job because it costs too much to repair and young people just don't have the money. Stories in WSJ now point to how DJT won in 2024 largely because of immigration, fentanyl and transgender, and the frustration with high inflation. The challenge is now for action where Mexico, Canada and China cut off fentanyl flows to be able to access the US market. It is also for finding a way to cut housing and car costs. ...

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Binyamin Applebaum of the NYT Editorial Board says the gap from 1972 to 2021 of 21% of GDP in spending and 17% of GDP in taxes taken in is a serious problem because it creates $31 trillion in debt and over 475 billion in interest payments each year. And much of the spending is wildly popular 63% that goes to Social Security and Medicare, and vital spending on health care and education, social services that takes up 15%. The rest is defense and interest payments. The rest of the G7 spend about 50% more on average he says. This is why he says Republicans holding up raising the debt ceiling is not the issue that needs to be faced each year there are better more direct and sensible solutions that also address the need for the Renewal of America after years of underinvestment in everything from infrastructure to health and education. And capital markets that overcrowded essential government spending to finance massive capital misallocation by tech companies, the costs of which are only now being understood in America. ...

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Phased retirement is getting greater acceptance from management in the US. In 2021 23% of employers had these arrangements up from 16% in 2016, according to the Society for Human Resources Management. Of this 8% have phased retirement on a formal basis, and 15% have this on an informal ad hoc basis. Human resource experts say that companies should leverage the voice of experience rather than lose this valuable resource with shift from full time to 100% retirement in one move.

A survey by Mercer LLC of executives worldwide show 38% of executives saying they offer phased retirement, which show a definite trend in favor of phased retirement in 2022. 

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Jeanne Whalen on the Two Speed Economy in the US September 2025- diverging paths of low and high income Americans. With the new administration in 2025 priorities shift to immigration and what to do about 14 million illegal migrants from Latin America and other places, war on fentanyl and drug trafficking gangs with hundreds of thousands of lives lost to fentanyl and drugs in the US, crime and safety which includes the unprecedented illegal movement of drug trafficking in the Nation, and to a bold posture on using US advantages of its huge market to get European Union, Japan, South Korea, and China to level the playing field on trade bring jobs home.The Biden administration had already conceded to DJT's approach in its one term presidency by shifting on uncontrolled illegal migration but not fast enough, by not removing DJT's tariffs, and failing to take an aggressive posture on fentanyl and drug trafficking. Of the DJT plan US has tariff based revenues of 10--15% for all countries imports into US can that it redirect to groups to soften any effects of tariffs. DJT administration oil transition policy of stretching out the transition to give middle class and lower classes cost of living relief was also accepted by the Biden administration and is now the policy of Democrat run California state government.  The US economy was slowing in 2024 under the Biden administration. What has changed in 2025 is that the US stock markets are responding to steps taken by the DJT Republican administration to lower the cost of doing business by softening regulations, and giving US business the upper hand in different industries, and rebuilding the manufacturing sector with calls for EU and Japan/South Korea to invest more in the US as a quid pro quo for market access. This has led to increase in the value of market portfolios of the income earners above 250,000, or 10% of American households. As this happens the process of trade renegotiation has introduced some uncertainty in 2025 and businesses are looking for more clarity before increasing investment and slowing job hiring which hurts younger people entering the job market and lower income Americans. Were things better under Biden? Government Covid assistance and payouts in the early years 2020-2021 helped lower income workers, as this faded and the cost of living autos, housing increased sharply under Biden in 2022-2024 the situation deteriorated. The situation today is similar to the situation in 2024 with the difference in 2025 that inflation is coming down just as government help is receding. And added factor is the DJT administration plan to tackle head on the increasing cost of Medicaid to about $1 trillion by adding new requirements and reducing subsidies. The federal workforce had a disproportionate share of black workers and the policy changes to reduce the federal workforce have increased black unemployment from 6.1% under Biden in August 2024 to 7.5 % a year later. Hispanics have seen slight improvement in unemployment to 5.3% in 2025, and the middle class incomes also have held up and are holding steady. Meantime Bloomberg points out that one third of people in the top 10% are living paycheck by paycheck because of high cost of housing, university education for children, and inflation.     ...

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France and Britain are at loggerheads over fishing rights in UK waters. UK will now have 4 Navy patrol ships protect its fishing waters in the event of a no deal Brexit. French and other EU fishermen get 60% of the fish taken from UK waters. UK exclusive economic zone extends 200 miles from the shore. Conservative ministers have doubled the total fleet of patrol ships from four to eight. During patrol in extreme cases a EU boat can be impounded and taken to the nearest EU port, otherwise it could be boarded and inspected.

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As Russia makes gains in the whole Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine the UK approves use of its long range missiles inside Russia. Biden is on the verge of making a similar decision as Iran sends long range ballistic missiles to Russia according to reports in NYT. Use of American long range missiles is not expected to affect Russia's overall military position in the Donetsk region in the east. The US and president Biden has only reluctantly provided support for use of US weapons systems to not risk escalating the war. Even artillery on the Russian side was off the list of approved use till Russia used it in Kharkiv border region at which point it was approved. Russians see Kiev as the origin of the Russian State in the 1400's, and eastern region of Donetsk as Russian if western Ukraine seeks to join NATO and EU. Britain has opposed Russia since 1750 as it saw Russia as the threat to an Empire it was building in South Asia, in India that financially supported its Empire worldwide. Britain has a long history of engaging Russia in conflict to protect British trade interests and expand its imperial influence as in the Crimean War fought in 1850's against Russia with the French to gain control of the Ottoman Empire and its Arab states for its trade and imperial interests. Republicans other than Mr. Trump and his supporters are for stronger support to Ukraine following US policy of opposing invasion to achieve military goals since 1900 against the Japanese in China and the Vietnam War was fought on the same basis in the 1960's considering the South Vietnamese state as an independent republic, just  invaded by the north, by North Vietnam, just as the US had done in the Korean War between North and South Korea. In the Vietnam War nationalism played apart with the Vietnamese nationalism prevailing by 1970.   ...

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"The NHS is on its knees," says Starmer, one more reaon to ban outdoor smoking. Labor in 2007 put the ban on indoor smoking. Sunak had a plan for the Tories to ban smoking. Starmer is now following this to reduce the burden on the NHS and improve public health in the UK. The bill would gradually ban smoking for people born after 2009, an idea proposed by Sunak and the Conservatives. The bill would place new restrictions on outdoor smoking, including outdoor spaces at, and pavements outside, clubs and restaurants, as well as at universities, children’s play areas and small parks. Asked about this during a visit to Paris, Starmer said: “My starting point on this is to remind everybody that over 80,000 people lose their lives every year because of smoking,” he said. “That is a preventable death, it’s a huge burden on the NHS and, of course, it is a burden on the taxpayer. So, yes, we are going to take decisions in this space, more details will be revealed, but this is a preventable series of deaths and we’ve got to take action to reduce the burden on the NHS and the taxpayer.”  The prime minister said-“It is important to get the balance right, but everybody … who uses the NHS will know that it’s on its knees.” Dr Layla McCay, the director of policy at the NHS Confederation, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “It is absolutely the health challenge of our time. It’s the leading cause of preventable illness in the UK, so we are heartened to see that progress is being made and that the intention is moving forward to really address one of Britain’s main drivers of health inequalities.” ...

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Boosting vaccine production for the Indo-Pacific region that includes Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam with production done through Biological E in Hyderabad will be discussed at the meeting with Biden. Japan will fund the project, and Australia will handle the distribution. This will be part of a followup to a March 12 virtual meeting of Quad leaders. This effort to meet the vaccine supplies challenge for the Asian region covering south east Asia and its population of 600 million will be one of the major outcomes of Quad countries collaboration, making it a peacetime collaboration that supports development in the region without burdening the financial position of any country.  The other part of US- Indian collaboration and Quad collaboration centers on two related themes after healthcare and pandemic. The immediate challenge is to tackle the breakdown in the supply chain for semiconductors. The US and Europe can no longer depend entirely on a supply chain based in Taiwan. The narrowest part of the Taiwan Straits which separates Taiwan from the Chinese mainland is only 81 miles wide, which makes continued dependence on chip production on Taiwan an unreliable option and the need to build a new supply chain for Japan, EU and US. Plans will be made to address this in the talks. The Biden administration has already taken action with Intel Corp making a U turn and bringing chip manufacturing back home to the US with $50 billion investment planned. India and other Asian countries may form additional options for semiconductor manufacturing. The third part of the Quad effort will center on US and Japan ramping up infrastructure building capabilities with India to build infrastructure across Asian countries and in Africa that will be financed in a way that will not have some of the liabilities of the Chinese initiative called Belt and Road. Loans given by Chinese state banks and contracts including manpower from Chinese contractors are now seen as not meeting the needs of Asian and African countries. These loans most of the time cannot be repaid as in Zambia, and other parts of Africa, and in Pakistan, leading to interest accumulating on debt and making future infrastructure development extremely difficult. The use of manpower from China also means no learning curve for infrastructure is formed for local companies and infrastructure comes without new jobs jobs being created.  For most of the period 1900 -1950 the British built Asian and African infrastructure. During the period 1950 onwards the US assumed a major role, as did the Soviets. This changed after belligerent Reagan administration policies and wars in the Middle East sapped the funds that could have gone to infrastructure building that would improved living standards in Asia and Africa. Mr Biden wants to see this change and this is what he meant when he said at the UN General Assembly today- " we want relentless diplomacy to take the place of relentless wars." He means every word of this and the diplomacy is between allies and also adversaries, but mostly with allies such as Japan, the EU and India to build a better world. That he has to do this quickly Biden is aware of that, which is why he said "the next 10 years will determine our future."   ...