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This article in the Economist following the state election in Berlin, says it shows Merkel and the CDU as still the only likely option to form a new coalition in the 2017 federal elections. Even though six parties emerged in the Berlin election- the left parties SPD and Die Linke, the Greens,CDU, AfD, FDP- the situation is so fragmented that the CDU still remains the leading party nationwide. The Economist points out that a Greens and left parties coalition as in Thuringia is not an option at the federal level, because most Germans are not in favor of a SPD, left party Die Linke, and Greens coalition at the national level. The opposition from the CSU inside the CDU-CSU parties to Merkel's refugee policy,  with Seehofer calling for a numerical limit to refugees, is it says presents the only real challenge to Merkel. Yet Merkel has already tackled that problem, as the new refugee numbers are dropping dramatically. and Merkel has already pointed out that the refugee crisis came when she and her government were caught unprepared. By taking the right steps to assuage voter sentiment as she has deftly done throughout her terms in office, staying close to what voters generally accept as the best way forward, a year from now Merkel and the CDU may as she says be seen as having taken actions that best reflect Germany's interests in the long term. ...

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How did Steve Smith go from that Jofra Archer short ball bouncer to sitting out the next Test match for rest, and then go on to score 211 at Old Trafford on September 5, 2019. Australia were able to score 497 for eight wickets in the first innings. In the second innings he scored a needed fast 82 runs. Bouncing back quickly shows Steve Smith's character and courage. In his own words- "A bit of the past came up, if you know what I mean, from a few years ago. That was the first thing I thought about. The I thought "I'm actually OK here." I was a bit sad, but I was alright mentally the rest of that afternoon.  "No, I'm really not going to change anything. There is a  bit of talk that he has got the wood over me, but he has'nt got me out. He hit me on the head on a wicklet that was a bit up and down at Lord's. All the other bowlers have had more success with me, I dare say. I've faced them a bit more, but they've got me out a lot more, so yeah, pretty comfortable about that." About a heavier barrage of short balls and bouncers in the next match he thought "If you bowl it up there then you can't nick me off, or hit me on the pad, or hit the stumps," he shrugged. About the Dukes ball, its and interesting ploy, so we'll see what happens." Steve Smith went on to play like he always does moving about to take the ball in his own way, building up 600 runs in Test series three times, 671 in this Ashes series.     ...

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One sees the "quintessential IBM-er", close confidant of Sam Palmisano, and the involvement with Ms Chiesi, where insider information is excahnged over dinners. Questions arise about the ethics prevailing at the country's supposedly high standard maintaining firms such as IBM and McKinsey where another high ranking executive Anil Kumar faces similiar charges. Did these senior managers not ask themselves what was the right thing to do or was the dividing line between ethical and unethical simply blurred. Top ranking executives at Siemens were also found making decisions where they could not see the difference.

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The Republican House Health Care pLan in 2017 relies on tax credits of between $2000 and $4000 based on age. Under the Affordable Health Care Act the elderly poor in high cost insurance areas received additional help. These people would lose over $2000 per person and may forgo full coverage or coverage entirely under the Republican House Health Care Plan. A report by Standard & Poor's estimates about 2 to 4 million people who are in 50's and 60's not yet qualifying for Medicare might lose their coverage they now have under ACA. The Republican plan also gives incentives through tax credits higher for older people, $4000 for a 60 year ol and $2000 for a 25 year old. Under the ACA the insurers are not allowed to charge more than three times what is charged for younger people, under the Republican plan this goes up to five times. 

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As the Afghanistan conflict has receded into the background in American minds and the U.S. has become more careful to avoid foreign entanglements, 80 warring factions including the Taliban and the government in Kabul are meeting for talks in Doha, in Gulf state of Qatar. The effort is designed to settle the dispute and settle on an Islamic legal system for anew post war country that bases itself on Islamic values, yet ensures women's rights within the framework of Islamic values. There is an explicit urgency to shed some of the bitterness and the scars from the war once and for all.

Germany's migration crisis was made worse by economic migration from Afghanistan and North Africa in addition to the migration from war torn areas. Germany is now hosting these meetings along with Qatar, understanding the effects of such conflicts reach well beyond distant lands.

 

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Reinhart is saying something similiar to what Krugman said earlier, and Peter Eavis said in the Heard on the Street column on March 24, 2009. The Geithner plan is similiar to the Paulson plan. It is trying to get private investors to buy up toxic assets by offering incentives. But the pricing issue like before is left vague and unanswered. And its success looks increasingly doubtful as the is not only the problem of confidence and illiquidity that these plans are confronting, but something more structural and basic about how much these toxic assets are worh and whether it makes sense to bid for them and at what price so that ooooooone is protected on the downside. Reinhart points out that the stress tests are also there, and it may just be that the government is waiting for public support to build for taking on the losses involved in getting rid of toxic assets, and is right now going the longer circuitous route. At some point the government may decide the time is right to sort out the banking institutions finances through the stress tests, make the tough decisions for banks that are not healthy by government takeover, and deal with the toxic assets as owner of these failed banks....

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France with about 6 million Muslims and a history of colonial rule in North African Arab countries (Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, and other countries) faces a challenge of integrating Muslims into French society. Germany with a large population of Turkish origin also faces a similiar challenge. The attack on the satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo for poking fun at Islam, in a manner similiar to its satirical work on Catholicism, leads to the death of 12 journalists, a policeman and a policewoman. Erlanger and Bennhold describe the reaction of people in France. Peter Neumann, director of the International Center for the Study of Radicalization at King's College , London, says about anti-immigrant sentiment increasing in Europe to the point where it is uncoupling working class families from the elites in Europe and reaching into the mainstream of society.

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A key figure in approval ratings is 46% with DJT getting 46% approval for the economy and on a range of issues including immigration. On tariffs the situation is steadily improving with new trade agreements with Japan, the EU, South Korea that were announced after or just when this WSJ poll was taken on July 20. Among Republicans 88% support the president and 66% strongly support him which says this report means more of them would turn out to vote. More significant is that the optimistic rating of the economy went up by 11 percentage points from April 2025 to 46% in July 2025. This is also the view of Fed chairman Powell. Each step of the way as DJT tariff actions result in tangible improvements in trade relations for the US and result in concrete real world trade agreements for a level playing field in world trade, the president's actions are seen in a different light. The first Trade Agreement with the UK, then with Japan and now quite possibly with the European Union. All this within 6 months of the president acting in February 2025. A major role played also by Bessent, Greer, Luttnick and others in the cabinet of ministers. This lifts perceptions of the president in the eyes of the American people in handling the economy, business and world trade, and protecting the interests of America's farmers, and rural communities. ...

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Apple's new upgraded operating system makes a change this fall which finally gives users the right to opt out of web tracking activity by apps. It will ask users if they want their web activity tracked. All users of apps have to do is to click No. 

This change implemented by Apple gives users the privacy they need without a constant barrage of ads based on web tracking activity. After the pandemic quieter times are needed for people to think about the essential things that add joy in their lives without the constant disruptive effect of ads. It has become so ubiquitous that people have lost memory that this was not always the way previous generations lived. For people under 20 they have never known anything different.

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The first flight on Mars will happen in April 2021 with the Ingenuity helicopter flying about one storey high for 60 seconds. It is part of the Perseverance mission rover that has already landed on the planet Mars. This video in WSJ shows how the Ingenuity helicopter was developed by NASA using a contractor Aeroenvironment which specializes in unmanned flight vehicles. The development process took 7 years and testing was done at the JPL Labs. JPL Labs has a vacuum space that can be filled with CO2 similar to atmosphere on MARS. 

Engineers doing the work for the helicopter say flight on MARS is challenging because of the thinner air. This will be a first in planetary flight compared to Wright Brothers first 120 second flight.

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For the first time a senior figure in Beijing tells why China rejected a U.S. offer for a deal in May 2019. Mr. Trump said at the time that China withdrew its agreement on the deal after initially agreeing to it, creating a lack of trust. 

Senior economic official Li Deshiu says "it was a wholly unfair treaty that seeks to colonize China's economy. If this is accepted it is giving up China's development path, giving up China's rights for development, and making China a vassal of the U.S."

He says the trade war is a broader U.S. strategy to limit China's development in key industries. This is the Chinese perspective on the situation which was not stated in clear terms but alluded to till now.

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Malkiel says both sides in the investor debate are right. Those saying the CAPE ratio in the U.S. at 25, well above long run average of 15, are right to point this out. So are the others in the debate who point to the lack of alternatives for investors when the 10 year Treasury bond is at 2.4% and short term rates essentially at zero. Stock prices reflect the discounted present value of future cash flows from dividends and capital gains. This discount rate in 2014 has to take into acount the rate on low risk securities such as 10 year U.S. Treasury bonds and and a premium for riskiness of the stock market. Add three or four percentage points to this and one gets a low discount rate for future earnings that helps support reasoning for higher stock prices, says Malkiel. On the issue of low interest rates Malkiel's view is that they will be around for a long period because the unutilized productive labor capacity and low growth are likely to persist for a long period. Here he supports Fed chairwoman Yellen's view based on the U6 labor utilization. He also sees the long run equity returns from today's prices to be much lower than the 10% long run average. By accomodating both sides Malkiel supports a broadly diversified portfolio with adequate room for emerging markets and international stocks....

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Apple faces large hurdles in China with models made locally by Huawei and other Chinese companies that offer similar features at a price about one third less. Chinese buyers are also looking for products that are made locally by Chinese companies. As a result Apple's market share in China has declined from 9% in 2015 to 7% in 2016. The future for Apple does not look bright apart from a core group of Apple fans that look for new product launches every year. Social media comments cited here show the comments about the iPhone 7 that say buyers should not pay $159 for Air Pods, the cordless earbuds. With the economic situation changing buyers are careful to pay so much for the iPhone 7, when it looks so much like the iPhone 6. In India Apple iPhone price are much higher and remain a significant hurdle for price conscious buyers.

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This article in the NYT after German chancellor Merkel's visit to the U.S. reminds readers that Merkel's relationship with Obama took some time to develop and that following Merkel's turning down of Obama's request to speak at the Brandenburg Gate in 2008 relations during a Merkel visit in 2009 were not as friendly. It says the relationships evolve over time. Even then the relationship between Merkel and Obama had ups and downs including the period when it was revealed that the Obama administration had tapped Merkel's phone and Obama failed to offer an apology, ending with a positive note in 2016 when the two met in Krun, Germany, with Obama as lameduck president. Experts from the German Council of Foreign Relations say that Trump adopted his usual double speak saying the right things about NATO and relations with Germany in the joint appearance, and later at a question and answer session saying Germany owed a lot of money to the U.S. for defense. Germany pays 1.2% of GDP for defense and promised to take this up to 2% by 2024. By now viewers may have adjusted to Trump's style to keep certain issues alive for negotiation stance, as a distraction, to keep his base's enthusiasm, or in some situations to vent out grievances such as with media coverage he receives. ...

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The Washington Post's Lillian Cunningham interviews Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, in April 2014. In this exceptional interview Lagarde talks about her personal life experiences that have given her new strength to tackle the difficult jobs as finance minister of France and head of the IMF, during a period of turmoil at the organization, and the global financial crises of 2009 followed by the eurozone financial crisis. No other woman in recent times has faced a series of crises of this magnitude and tackled them with such fortitude, exceptional insight, and ability to stand up for what she believes is the right course of action. She says she has seen many instances where women are given jobs which are tough and expected to sort out a mess or revitalize an organization. Her own approach she describes here emerged from personal anguish of losing her father to a debilitating illness at a young age as the eldest in her family, and remembering her dad's advice to stand up for what she believed, to face a tough situation and come out stronger. Lagarde's view on leadership is that it is about getting people excited about the purpose of an organization. Just as every human being has a purpose in life, so organizations with people working together develop a joint purpose, and the job of a leader is to enable people to get them to achieve that purpose....

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One day in 1964 Oxford mathematician Roger Penrose decided that an impossible object could actually exist - a black hole in the galaxy after a planet collapses.Einstein's theory of relativity had predicted that when stars collapse they could form infinitely dense points of matter that no light would be allowed to escape. The formation of black holes supports Einstein's Theory of Relativity says the Nobel Prize Committee. Penrose is 89 and says it is good to get the Nobel Prize when one is good and old. Stephen Hawking a younger physicist passed away and was not included in the prize after supporting Penrose's work. Two astronomers in the U.S. at UCLA, Los Angeles, get a quarter of the prize for their work detecting black holes in the sky and providing evidence of a super massive black hole in the center of our galaxy. Pennrose says "If you have got grand ambitions its bad to get a Nobel Prize too early, it gets in the way of your science." ...

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General Patrick Sanders former chief of the British armed forces tells graduates at Sandhurst Military Academy in the UK- "We have always fought with our backs to the wall. This is who we are.” “So if you fight, and my experience has been that you will, sooner or later, it will likely be as the British Army always has: isolated, overmatched in numbers, equipment and technology, with tenuous supply lines and before the country has mobilised,” he added. Reading US General Pershing's "My Experiences in the World War" one finds the same message about what he had learned from his experience leading the US Expeditionary forces that put one million Americans into France in 1917. US slow to mobilize in the face of unfolding German threat in Europe. Acting earlier the US Pershing believes would have had a decisive voice in settlement and not accepted the armistice that led to another world war. Every leader in that war trained under Pershing- Marshall, Eisenhower, MacArthur. ...

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Schapiro comes to the SEC at acritical time but has the experience and skills to respond to the challenges facing the agency as its failures in regulation come to light one after another.

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There is a major shift in world opinion among major countries in Asia and Europe and North America moving negative by double digits in Pew research surveys. The shift is gradual and negative in Germany, France, Spain and Italy, and steeply negative in Sweden, Denmark, Britain and the U.S., Japan and South Korea. The people with negative views of China in world affairs are also the people who believe China did a bad job in handling the coronavirus.  In Australia in one year alone there is a 24% increase to 81% of people who see China unfavorably, in Britain this is a 19% increase in one year to 74%. In the U.S. the shift is over 4 years by 20% to negative views for 73% viewing China unfavorably or negatively. The shift in Canada is similar to the U.S. The biggest shift is in Japan where 86% view China unfavorably and Sweden where this is 85% after China handled Swedish relations poorly. See the color graphs in the original article in DW.com by clicking on original article here in Lyrarc.com. It is rare to see the such a dramatic shift in public perception of one country. The handling of the coronavirus by China in a way that hurt all countries with lack of transparency and total cooperation normally seen in pandemics and the cost in poverty and job losses, economic losses has resulted in a massive loss of confidence in China, and in the leadership of Xi Jinping. Most public opinion in these countries now believes that Jinping cannot be trusted to do the right thing in world affairs. ...

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The German people offer a warm welcome to refugees from Syria and North Africa suffering enormous hardships to make their way across seas and overland through Eastern Europe to Germany's borders. Germany of its own accord waived the right to deport Syrians back to the first European nation entered, and supported Syrian refugees right to stay with an 87% acceptance rate for Syrians seeking asylum. In August 2015 alone 100,000 refugees were accepted. Chancellor Merkel and Germany lead the European Union by example, and what an example it has been. Faiola of the Washington Post tells the story of Abed Almoen Alalie, a civil servant from Syria who fled with his family, and after being roughly treated in Budapest, Hungary, cannot believe his eyes seeing the welcoming crowds as he gets off the train in Munich. Never has a nation in such a short time made its way into the hearts of so many as Germany has done in 2015. The crisis found Germany, or Germany found the crisis, either way Germany embraced it and the people who came with it in a way hard to imagine. With chancellor Merkel leading the way using strong words and courage of her Lutheran convictions- "The fundamental right to asylum does not have a limitation. As a strong, economically healthy country, we have the strength to do what is necessary." Many Germans have responded in a degree and manner that is hard to imagine . They say this was Germany's effort at redemption after the war. In a poll by ARD released September 3, 2015, 88% of Germans said they would donate money or clothes to refugees or have done so, and 67% say they will volunteer to help. ...

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Only 12% of Americans take the minimum daily recommended fruit for healthy living, and only 9% of Americans take the minimum daily recommended vegetables, according to the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The minimum for fruit is daily taking one and half cups fruit. For vegetables it is daily taking two to three cups of vegetables. Women consume a bit more at 15% for fruit. An interesting finding in this study that explains the widespread obesity in the U.S. regardless of incomes is that of affluent and wealthy Americans only about 12% consume enough vegetables. This is very close to the percentage of poor people eating the recommended 2-3 cups of vegetables a day, which is at 7%. This is an alarming fact in that all sections of society are doing very badly, creating acatastrophic effect for healthcare. A diet without fruits and vegetable brings higher rates of obesity, cancer, heart disease, diabetes. If rich and poor upper middle class and lower middle class are all sharing the same lack of awareness it points to the lack of education in eating right as the big culprit. This is one area where government, universities, and the informed private sector, can change things if they wanted to. A challenge as big as that in literacy and education for the U.S. Alarmingly even though it is in the top ten read articles in the Guardian newspaper online edition on November 16, 2017, we checked the other sites. We could not find it under Health in CNN, where other topics such as sexual harrassment, and sugar cravings, were covered. NBC covered a different CDC report showing 71% of Americans are overweight or obese with BMI over 25, but made no mention of this report by CDC. Equally alarming is the statistic cited in the Guardian from the Union of Concerned Scientists that shows only 2% of American farmland is used to cultivate fruits and vegetables. That this would have to go up at least to 4% if all Americans are to get their daily required fruits and vegetables. Meanwhile little change is to be seen, and no alarm bells are ringing in the U.S.. These facts are hardly mentioned in any healthcare discussion in media, as if they can be ignored or shoved under the carpet. This is the kind of thing that will never go viral, as a discussion on sexual harrassment or some other topic would, yet deserves just as much attention and education. ...

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Der Spiegel has this interview with Robert Habeck, Economy Minister of Germany, on how Germany will cope with a step by step cutoff of oil and gas supplies from Russia in winter 2022. Habeck says this is likely to happen. Der Spiegel ask Habeck questions about the various actions Habeck is taking to get Germany through this winter. This includes bringing back coal plants that were being phased out, plans for industry to pass on gas that it is not using, setting priorities for homes over industry where possible, providing aid to people with low incomes who cannot afford to heat their homes this winter. Habeck calls for greater efforts for conservation that can reduce gas consumption by 10% with simple steps such as shorter time in the shower,  setting the thermostat down by 1 or 2 degrees in winter, using air conditioning less often, cooking in a way that uses gas efficiently, increasing insulation in the home, better distribution of air in the home, and so on. How much time does Habeck spend in the shower- less than 5 minutes. He leaves home by 7 and gets back late at night after work. Does he think Germans have the grit and determination to meet the challenge Putin is posing of creating disaffectionmnin German society through first gas prices and then gas shortages this winter? Habeck believes Germans can and will respond in a way that takes Germany through this winter and through all the threats Russia under Putin is posing. ...

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Amy Hood growing up in a small town in Kentucky, then a move to Nashvile, Duke and HBS. She joined Microsoft in 2002 on its investor relations team. She moved into management the same time as Nadella who is CEO. Before the pandemic Microsoft's capital expenditures and investments cost about $16 billion. It is now 4 times that at $64 billion. It is Amy Hood's job as Chief Finanacial Officer to see that all that money is well spent for products with demand. AI services bring in about $10 billion annually.  Yet this may just be deflecting by Wall Street of the real question about the funding needs that are being neglected in education, health care and child care, when huge amounts of capital are being diverted by capital markets in ways reminiscent of the warnings of Franklin Roosevelt at the Democratic Convention of 1932. Warnings that the whole capital markets system was not working right, was only defunding the vital needs of the American people. ...

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Willingness to change opinions as the wind shifts, or as conditions change and new information or insights are gained, is a necessary quality in good leadership. You may not get it right the first time, and that is OK if you are honest with yourself and do the right thing, which is to take stock of the new information and understanding and act upon it, even if that is different from what you said or did before. These skills may be needed by the President in difficult places like Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as at home in tackling the economy where some actions work and make sense and some others don not work or make sense under the conditions. Or its some new understanding of the conditions that is gained. FDR tried a number of things in his first 100 days in office and he got conflicting advice from some advisors, over time he obtained a better grasp of conditions and an understanding of what actions would be most effective in ending the crisis in the country. He had to be a good learner, be a good observer first hand of conditions, stay in touch with the people, honestly ask himself what would be the best thing to do in each situation. Sometimes he had to chart a new course and he had to know which advisers best represented the interests of the people and the country, and where to look for help. This is described by Adam Cohen of the NYT in his new book "Nothing to Fear". ...

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Timothy Egan vists the west coast of Ireland, near Dingle, where David Lean filmed "Ryan's Daughter," and sees abandoned half-finished houses. One in eight houses in Ireland sits empty he says, as the excesses of the boom years now are there for all to see.