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The miscalculations and missteps of Russian president Putin in 2014 leading to a major crisis for the Russian economy in 2015
12/18/2014
A major miscalculation was totally misjudging Merkel and post-war German public opinion about policies that remind people about the period between the two World Wars- this is anathema to Germans who see the European Union as a way to build a new and different Europe. The other miscalculation was on how a foreign adventurous policy in Syria would affect Sunni world opinion, in particular Saudi Arabia. Just as Brezhnev took Russia into Afghanistan where Russia had no vital interest leading to eventual Soviet collapse, Putin risked alienating a key member in OPEC pricing moves and hurting Russia's economic interest. By not listening to Kudrin, the head of Sberbank, and other economic advisers from the first and second terms of the Putin-Medvedev administrations, Putin opened the door to two years of serious missteps, risking the very real accomplishments of the first and second term of creating a stable growing Russian economy with close economic ties to Europe. The only positive outcome of the crisis and low oil prices would be making the shift away from oil dependence, which was talked about but never seriously attempted in the Putin administrations. For this to happen major new investments would have to be made and technology links to the outside strengthened, both hammered by the missteps in 2013-2014. The irony of all this is that Putin gained the support of rural Russians in the countryside in the 2012 presidential elections by promising no return to the economic crisis conditions following earlier ruble collapses. Now by ignoring Kudrin and other wiser counsel from the first and second administrations he does just that.
Linked Articles
Putin’s Year of Defiance and Miscalculation
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin Seeks to Reassure on EconomyWall Street Journal 12/18/2014
The 56% of student loans that are being repaid to the government and the government not correctly reflecting its liabilities
10/17/2014
Studies by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are cited by authors of the op-ed in WSJ, showing 56% of student loans are being repaid to the government.
Linked Articles
Student-Loan Debt: A Federal Toxic Asset
Wall Street Journal 10/17/2014
Student Loan Debt and Counting Liabilities as AssetsWall Street Journal 10/17/2014
Obama's second term- (5) the U.S. president's foreign policy failures in Syria and Iraq seen up close by Clinton and Panetta
08/11/2014
A Defense Secretary and Secretary of State in the Obama administration describe up close president Obama's failure to act at key moments in the crisis in Iraq and Syria. This has badly damaged the U.S. credibility and what it stands for in the Middle East and the rest of the world.
Linked Articles
A Rift in Worldviews Is Exposed as Clinton Faults Obama on Policy
New York Times 08/11/2014
Former Defense Chief Panetta Criticizes Obama in New MemoirWall Street Journal 10/07/2014
More women without jobs in 2014 compared to 2010, and the 20% of U.S. households in 2014 either underwater or with less than 20% equity in their homes
05/19/2014
Most parts of the Democratic base badly damaged in the Obama administration's policy decisions in the housing and mortgage crisis of 2008-2009. A delayed economic recovery with weakness in consumer spending as one of the predictable outcomes of the policy decisions taken for homeowners.
Linked Articles
Economic Recovery Yields Few Benefits for the Voters Democrats Rely On
New York Times 05/19/2014
Mortgage, Home-Equity Woes LingerWall Street Journal 05/20/2014
BaFin, German federal financial regulatory authority, and the problems at Deutsche Bank- regulators slow to act on information
03/28/2014
Eyk Henning of the WSJ points out the slow response of regulator BaFin to information about problems at Deutsche Bank that suggest a broken culture in a report on March 28, 2014. This comes 6 years after the WSJ first reported the LIBOR rate manipulation in 2008 leading to British and U.S. regulatory investigations. In April 2015 Deutsche Bank made a legal settlement for LIBOR rate manipulation of $2.5 billion with U.S. and British regulators. As the time when regulatory authority passes to the European Central Bank, and after a period of 7 years since the 2008 WSJ report, BaFin finally sends its report on the broken culture at the bank. A month later the two co-CEO's at the bank resign.
Linked Articles
Germany Blasts Deutsche Bank Executives Over Culture
Wall Street Journal 07/17/2015
German Financial Watchdog Bites BackWall Street Journal 03/28/2014
U.S. Federal Reserve policy to leave bond buying tapering unchanged and the lower U.S. growth from adverse weather in 4th quarter 2013-1st quarter 2014
02/28/2014
Yellen leaves Fed policy on the same course as lower growth is attributed to bad weather in Feb. 2014.
Linked Articles
Yellen Sticks to Plan Amid Weather Doubts
Wall Street Journal 02/28/2014
That 2014 Growth Breakout? Not Looking LikelyWall Street Journal 03/02/2014
Tesla's plans to increase production of electric car batteries and go mass-market in 2014-2017
02/26/2014
Linked Articles
Tesla Plans $5 Billion Battery Factory
Wall Street Journal 02/27/2014
Tesla Plans $5 Billion Battery Factory for Mass-Market Electric CarNew York Times 02/26/2014
China's steadily growing automobile market in 2014-2015 (2)- the 49% increase in SUV sales in 2013 over 2012
12/16/2013
Ford Motor's early push into SUV's in China is helping it catchup with GM and Toyota.
Linked Articles
Renault to Focus on Building SUVs in China
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2013
Ford's SUVs Propel Its China GainsWall Street Journal 04/08/2014
Change and South Africa- The African National Congress in 1944 and the African National Congress in 2013
12/05/2013
The changing mood of young people in South Africa as the ANC fails to live up to its ideals.
Linked Articles
New York Times 12/05/2013
In Mandela's Home, Grief and GlorificationWall Street Journal 12/06/2013
Putin and the excessive cost of the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics in Russia approaching $51 billion
11/05/2013
The need for infrastructure spending in other parts of Russia, for R&D development and making the transition away from dependence on oil revenues, as competing needs for capital. This also happens as currency values are declining for emerging markets and it is increasingly difficult to attract foreign investment in 2014, leading to slowing growth with high inflation.
Linked Articles
Putin's Olympian Construction Zone
Wall Street Journal 11/05/2013
Putin’s Olympic Fever DreamNew York Times 01/22/2014
Missteps of German brands in the U.S. market 2013-2015- Adidas and VW
09/06/2013
Linked Articles
How Adidas Aims to Get Its Cool Back
Wall Street Journal 03/26/2015
VW's $1 Billion Bet on U.S. Factory SputtersWall Street Journal 09/06/2013
Creating friendly livable urban space- the work of Amazon, Google and Twitter in Seattle, San Francisco and Chicago
08/25/2013
Linked Articles
Twitter Helps Revive a Seedy San Francisco Neighborhood
New York Times 11/01/2013
As Amazon Stretches, Seattleâs Downtown Is ReshapedNew York Times 08/25/2013
Declan Walsh on why the firing of live ammunition on protesters in Cairo may end up as a watershed event for the Muslim world going forward
08/16/2013
Declan Walsh sees this in the context of the Muslim world. Janvoo sees this in the context of the world beyond, of Aisa and Latin America which have moved beyond the divisive politics of the past and away from military regimes- S. Korea, Thailand, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and one party PRI Mexico. The return of Gen. Park's daughter as president of S. Korea was a different one when she apologized for the behaviour of her father, even saying she coud not spit on the image of her father. Nieto's PRI is apologetic about its past and says its different, working with the opposition PRD and PAN parties on constitutional changes for reforming the econoy. Egypt and the Arab world is no exception. The Saudis and Emirates are able to deliver in economic terms as long as oil supplies and prices are high. Egypt has to find its own path and learn from the past to build the future.
Linked Articles
Other Nations Offer a Lesson to Egyptâs Military Leaders
New York Times 08/24/2013
Democracy in Egypt Can WaitNew York Times 08/16/2013
China and corruption under the Xi Jinping administration
12/02/2014
Transparency International gives China 36 points , a decline of 4 points in 2014. Since 2013 China has dropped 20 place in the Corruption Perceptions Index, only Turkey had a steeper drop in points in 2014. Transparency, independent judiciary, free speech, whistleblower protection, and accountable government are factors that determine ranking in the index.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 12/09/2014
China Slips in Corruption Perceptions ReportNew York Times 12/02/2014
Calpers decision to exit investment in hedge funds and the losses at Carlyle hedge fund- poor returns for hedge funds
09/15/2014
Linked Articles
Calpers, Nation's Biggest Pension Fund, To End Hedge Fund Investments
New York Times 09/15/2014
Carlyle Fund Walloped in Commodities RoutWall Street Journal 08/01/2015
China, the U.S. and Japan- the task of reestablishing peaceful cooperation in the Pacific region after the missteps of 2011-2013
07/09/2014
Meetings for the sixth round of the Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Bieijing between the U.S. and China, and Japanese prime minister's address to the Australian parliament in Canberra, at about the same time in July 2014, showing how the path of peaceful cooperation will have to be actively pursued to remain a reality. Underpinning the hopes of China, Japan and neighboring countries in Asia is the U.S. will and purpose for maininting the post war peace and stability for the benefit of all, that at times has been missing in the words and actions of the Obama administration. Lack of peace in the region would seriously affect China's effort to bring better incomes to the large majority of people still in the countryside and leave China stuck in middle income status of countries like Mexico, damage the prospects of improving incomes of billions of people in India, other parts of Asia and Latin America. In this sense the Japanese people have shown the wisdom of keeping the conditions of peace that have prevailed for the post war period, and the U.S. with undiminished will and purpose in its post war role can affirm the hopes of the people of the region, including the hope of people in China, India, Japan, S. Korea, and Latin America.
Linked Articles
U.S., China try to emphasize potential for cooperation - The Washington Post
Washington Post 07/09/2014
Abe's Constitutional Reform Push SlowsWall Street Journal 07/09/2014
The deteriorating situation for the U.S. long term unemployed and workers seeking fulltime but stuck in part time low paying jobs
04/04/2014
By March 2014 about 6 years after the 2008 financial crisis 7.4 million workers could not find full time work.
Linked Articles
It's Still Bad for the Long Term Unemployed
New York Times 04/04/2014
The Decline of WorkWall Street Journal 04/05/2014
GE (General Electric) low tax rate of 4.2% in 2013, 10.3% in 2014, and the move to a normal tax rate in 2015
03/05/2014
An aggressive policy of tax reduction using GE Capital at GE leads to an astonishingly low tax rate. Shareholders see the uncertainty from GE Capital's volatile earnings and tax strategies with great skepticism. GE shares dropped to $6 during the 2008 global financial crisis because of GE Capital losses, and GE needed government rescue funds. The day CEO Immelt announced the decision to exit the banking business GE shares went up by 11%. GE's tax rate without the banking business will go up to about 20%.
Linked Articles
Price of Selling GE Capital? Tax Breaks
Wall Street Journal 04/14/2015
How corporate America is losing the debate on taxesWashington Post 03/05/2014
Britain's RBS bank and the issue of high bank bonuses after a $15 billion loss in 2013
02/27/2014
Linked Articles
Royal Bank of Scotland to Slash Costs as Losses Deepen
Wall Street Journal 02/28/2014
Bailed-Out Royal Bank of Scotland Sees Years of LossesNew York Times 02/27/2014
Losses at RBS in 2013 putting off date at which the UK government's 81% stake can be sold to the private sector
01/28/2014
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 01/28/2014
Legal Costs Set to Put RBS in the RedWall Street Journal 01/28/2014
China PBOC's efforts in early 2014 to slow and slightly reverse appreciation of the yuan and have it trade in a 2% up or down trading range
12/10/2013
PBOC continues to carefully manage the currency in 2014 by slightly lowering its value, with plans to widen the trading range up or down by 2%. The yuan appreciated by 2.9% in 2013.
Linked Articles
China Intervenes to Lower Yuan
Wall Street Journal 02/27/2014
Brawny Yuan Stands Apart from the CrowdWall Street Journal 12/10/2013
The U.S., European and Emerging Markets stock markets in October 2013
11/17/2013
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 11/17/2013
Is This a Bubble?Wall Street Journal 11/17/2013
Liu He, top economic advisor to president Jinping, and Zhou Xiaochuan, head of the People's Bank of China, push for deposit insurance and private banks in China
10/30/2013
Deposit insurance and private banks to support lending to new private enterprises moves to the top of China's agenda and priorities in 2013 for the Jinping-Keqiang administration.
Linked Articles
China's Central Banker Leads Push to Overhaul Economy
Wall Street Journal 11/05/2013
China Think Tank Offers Reform Wish ListWall Street Journal 10/30/2013
The damage done in the Middle East by the lack of action of president Obama and western leaders in Syria
08/25/2013
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 08/25/2013
Andrew Roberts: Syria's Gas Attack on CivilizationWall Street Journal 08/25/2013
Why China and India see a "win-win spirit" in the Iran nuclear deal of July 2015- access to lower cost oil supplies for an extended period
08/21/2013
With the need to boost growth in India, and slowing growth in China, the prospect of lower cost Iranian oil imports is a bright spot for both countries.
Linked Articles
Oil-Thirsty China a Winner in Iran Deal
Wall Street Journal 07/15/2015
Rupee Throws Oil on India's Subsidy ProblemWall Street Journal 08/21/2013
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