LyrArc Article Gist
Mike Spence is Trump's selection for vice presidential running mate. He is expected to appeal to centrist Republicans and independents compared to other choices Christie and Gingrich. He also appeals to conservatives with strong positions on abortion, gay marraige and Obama health care law. Compared to Christie and Gingrich, Spence brings a calmer presence that Republicans see as moderating the ticket considering the aggressive style of Trump. Spence has said he is "a Christian, a conservative, and a Republican, in that order."

LyrArc Article Gist
Jack Horton of BBC Verify screens the former president Trump's speech at the Republican National Convention. “Our crime rate is going up, while crime statistics all over the world are going down".  Fact: FBI data shows crime down 6% and a drop in the murder rate by 13% in 2023. For the First Quarter of 2024 crime down by 15% and recorded murder rate down 26%. "We've had the worst inflation we've ever had under this person [Biden]. I will end the devastating inflation crisis immediately, bring down interest rates and lower the cost of energy . We will drill, baby, drill."  Fact: Inflation went up to 9.1% from 1.4% at the end of the Trump term in the first 2 years of of the Biden Administration by June 2022. Biden and Federal Reserves Powell brought this down to 3%. Explained: This inflation jump to 9% would have happened from supply chain in China for Trump administration as well. Trump's last year was 2019 the Covid pandemic started in January the lockdown by midyear meant sharp drop in demand and little room for inflation. The concentration of supply chain in China was the cause of the surge in inflation as China shut down and restarted late into 2022 causing shortages in factory parts and supplies. Biden focused on vaccination in 2020-2021. This inflation would have happened under Trump- this concentration of supply chain started with Reagan economic philosophy to ship production (and jobs) overseas, Clinton Bush Obama and Trump did little about it. Biden invested heavily in Make in America manufacturing and jobs at home. Biden and Powell did a good job of bringing this inflation down by 2023 to 3% before the European Union and UK. Younger voters don't know this they get their news from the internet and show little interest, see only that the low inflation under Trump and the higher inflation during the pandemic recovery under Biden and blame Biden. will Trump do better on inflation in 2024-2028. The WSJ does not think so its analysis shows inflation higher under Trump than Biden because of a planned 60% tax on imports from China. Trump follows Reagan/Friedman theory of the old Republican party of higher tax cuts for the wealthy, so no money is left for investing in American manufacturing and jobs as Biden free of this theory is able to do, leading to slowing growth with inflation under Trump.        ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The former president having 81% of the vote for non college educated in the primaries and  small percentage of votes among college educated means that if elected it would be that a whole population of college educated people are being effectively disenfranchised in choosing the government. It means that democracy that took over 200 years to include people with less education and income in selecting a government has moved in 2024 to doing the opposite excluding the educated with all its implications for good government of such a lopsided state of affairs. A recent poll shows 81% of Haley's 250,000 votes in the Republican primary would not vote for the former president. Haley won moderates by 61% to 31%. Trump won those without a college degree by 82% to 13% for Haley. Trump support huge in rural areas, Haley's in the suburbs.This shows how different this Republican party is from that even as recent as 2015. In fact Gallup has found that in 1999 the Democratic party was a plus 14 percentage points for non college educated and in 2024 the Republican party is a plus 14 percentage points for non college educated. Among postgraduate educated the gap was 8 percentage points in 1999 and now has widened to where Democrats have 60% to Republicans 21%. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Peggy Noonan, former press spokesperson for president Reagan, says what the president does in private is as important as what happens in public- that the tweets by president Trump done in private have not helped in the first 100 days. She says attacks on the Freedom Caucus deepened divisions in the Republican party. The failure to shake German chancellor Merkel's hand was not a proper diplomatic move and shows lack of public respect for Germany with which America shares a common history. Her sense is that what counts today is a constructive mentality and keeping perspective for the long run, and in this respect the first 100 days are not encouraging, she says.

LyrArc Article Gist
A Washington Post reporter tells why his reading list for 2018 has on it Winston Churchill's book "The Gathering Storm." A book suggested to him by Republican strategist Steve Schmidt. Authoritarian tendencies are evident in the interview with Schmidt of the NYT, including the idea expressed by president Trump that the Justice Department is something over which the president has "absolute rights." In a interview on CNN, Carl Bernstein, the reporter who covered the Watergate scandal of president Nixon, clarified that it was not just the break  into the Watergate apartments that led to impeachment of Nixon. Bernstein stated that it was the way in which Nixon used the powers of the presidency that led to the problems he faced.

LyrArc Article Gist
CBS'S Robert Costa:  What's your suggestion about how she (Kamal Harris) should handle that Republicans are saying she has fumbled the ball on immigration, on border policy? What's the answer for how to define her on herself on that issue? Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer:  The answer is very simple. And that is that Democrats, along with the Biden Harris administration, put together the toughest border policy that would have stopped the flow from the border that we've seen in a very long time. In fact, initially was supported by Republicans. So many of the leading Republicans said, "this is tough, we're all for it," (McConnell, Lankford, others). And then all of a sudden, President Trump says it, he said it explicitly. He said, "I don't want them to solve the problem, I want chaos at the border so I can run on it with the election." We're happy to bring that up. And case after case, when we bring that up, the voters side with us, not with their policies. We were willing to fix the border. Trump and his Republican minions said, don't fix it, we want chaos for political purposes. Who do you think's going to win the argument? ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A CNN poll shows 62% of Independents support the indictment of Donald Trump. John McCormick of the WSJ talks to Republicans in different states to understand how they feel about Mr. Trump after the indictment. The party is split -with some Republicans seeing that Trump has too much baggage to win in 2024. They feel the party should try another candidate. Mr. Trump is seen as having some positives but as having an abrasive personality, causing tension, and being too divisive to be a good president. There is a sense that it is time to move on to someone else.

LyrArc Article Gist
Senators Grassley, Graham, Risch, Blount, are some of the senators on the Judiciary and Intelligence Committees of the U.S. Senate who believe that Special Counsel Mueller's investigation should stay on track and complete its job, even though texts showing bias between Peter Strzok and Lisa Page led to their removal from the investigation. The senators say Mueller is a very capable guy and he has fired the officials expressing the bias against president Trump. The mood in the House is different where Republican Congressmen have called for Mueller to be removed.

LyrArc Article Gist
NYT's Homan who traveled 640 miles across Colorado and Woolf look at the reelection bid of a 33 year old owner of a restaurant and bar in the small town of Rifle in Colorado, Lauren Boebert. She represents the Trump centric activists at the state and county organizations who differ from other parts of the Republican party including more conventional Republicans like Jeff Hurd who graduated from Notre Dame and is a lawyer in Grand Junction. Hurd is challenging Boebert in the Republican primary. Boebert won the Congressional seat from Colorado's Third District over Adam Frisch by a mere 546 votes. After controversy regarding her behavior at Beetlejuice theatre Boebert is seen as lagging behind the Democrat's Adam Frisch, a Aspen councilman who ran out of funds in the last election yet is well financed this time.

LyrArc Article Gist
Sebarros of the WSJ takes a closer look at the key words used by U.S. president Trump in rallies in city after city during the 2016 election campaign and in the months before the Congressional elections in 2018. Analysis by the WSJ counted the unique two word phrases, how often Trump highlighted topics, the content of audience respones in 48 post election rally speeches through Oct 27.  In 2018 the words "tax cuts,"fake news," and "health care," appeared more often than in 2017 after the Republican party's win in passing a tax cut. Other phrases used frequently were "law enforcement," "North Korea," and "Supreme Court" after the win in nominating Judge Kavanaugh. The use of the 2 word phrases are carefully done. The words "fake news" were not used during sensitive periods such as when pipe bombs were mailed to government offices, yet resumed few weeks later. His own name is the seventh most used word, even for someone such as Mr. Trump, showing that behind the impromptu remarks there is a carefully worded effort to steer voters in a particular direction with carefully developed appeals. Another example is when the Dow Jones averages were reaching new highs in September and October Mr. Trump highlighted the stock market growth, and then when volatility increased by November said much less on this topic. Graphs by Jessica Wang provide a good look at how frequently and in what manner Mr. Trump has continued his unique campaigning style before the 2018 Congressional elections, with two word appeals to already receptive audiences. The audience participation is a singular feature and the words "U.S.A." were used in 85% of the rallies with "Build that Wall" at 65% as the next most frequent.  Much of it is repetitive in city after city and the WSJ analysis shows that the major television networks including Fox News are not covering the speeches from beginning to end as they did before, only C-Span public network does. To receptive audiences in carefully scripted surroundings, including larger ones such as the Toyota Center Houston, where larger numbers of supporters worried about immigration, health care, trade, and other issues can come together, president Trump has rallied core supporters with this kind of appeal. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Trump indictment under RICO or racketeer laws draws this reaction in the WSJ. WSJ says the alleged behaviour was rotten, but does it gain credibility by being prosecuted under racketeer laws. It describes the Trump response as more delusional than criminal- that a decisive share of Republicans in suburbs did not want Mr. Trump for four more years. WSJ Editorial Board view is that there is no defending the conduct undermining confidence in the election result in 2020 and it would be a mistake for Republicans to try.

LyrArc Article Gist
Robert Stavins of the environmental economics program at Harvard is cited in this NYT article by Coral Davenport. Stavin says that even with the change in policy favoring fossil under Trump administration the trend is towards using less fossil fuel and this trend is unlikely to change. This makes the claims of Trump that half a million jobs can be created with less regulation of the coal industry and shale oil industry, less likely. Industry is shifting away from coal for economic reasons and investors preferences, say experts. At the same time the progress away from fossil fuels is likely to be inadequate to avoid the worst effects of global warming, says Stavins. The change by industry is reflected in the decisions made by executives such as Nicholas Akins at American Electric Power, Ohio based electric power company. Akins tells NYT that he is making decisions for power generation 20, 30 and 40 years from now, and this assumes some form of carbon control. He says no question but that industry will move forward with cleaner energy and that means closing large coal facilities. The incoming Trump administration does not affect his policy. Another factor away from coal is dictated by economics- the availability of cheap natural gas from hydraulic fracturing. Incentives for renewable sources such as wind, solar, are not likely to change either say experts, because the solar panels and wind turbines are made in Republican and Democratic favoring districts and have support of Republicans in places like Arizona, Texas and Kansas. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Eighteen Senate Republicans under Mitch McConnell, the Minority leader in the US Senate, hold firm to support all Democrats for aid to Ukraine bill. This includes Senator Tillis of North Carolina who vigorously supported the aid bill on the floor of the Senate. Senator McConnell said "It is become fashionable in some circles to disregard the global interests of a global power, to bemoan the responsibilities of global leadership. It is idle work for idle minds, and it has no place in the US Senate." Mr. Trump and some Republican senators helped kill a immigration compromise legislation that Mr. Biden said would make it possible to close the border the day it was passed. This group also opposed the aid bill and lobbied to get the aid bill killed in the US Senate.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Cruz campaign depended on its success in Iowa on a well organized grassroots campaign, and the large turnout of evangelicals estimated at about 62 percent. The record turnout of about 185,000 for the Republican caucuses showed the depth of participation in this election. About 46% of the voter turnout was from Republicans participating for the first time. Trump's poor grassroots organization, missteps including controversial statements by Trump denigrating women- leading to him opting out of the last Republican debate raising doubts about his candidacy- combined to put Trump struggling for second place, with Rubio finishing only one percentage point behind. Cruz had 28%, Trump 24% and Rubio 23%. One of the results of this election is the poor performance of governors Jeb Bush, Christie and Kasich, who combined polled less votes than a neurosurgeon Carson. The anti-establishment fervour was evident with the support for Cruz, Trump and Carson of about two thirds of the vote, reflecting anti-establishment views. Cruz's win was remarkable, say analysts, considering his opposition to special interest lobbies, including the ethanol lobby in Iowa supported by Governor Branstad. It was also remarkable because of the months of media coverage for Trump's statements and exaggerations, and the tacit support for Trump from the establishment Republican party, including Senator Grassley of Iowa and Governor Branstad. Cruz now heads on to the other states, including the six southern states voting on March 1, where he will be favored, with a well financed campaign using grassroots contributions....

LyrArc Article Gist
The author is a resident scholar of the American Enterprise Institute. He says conservatism and the Republican Party have failed to recognize the problems of the American working class, leading to the rise of Trump. He adds that it will take more than one election cycle for Republicans to change this, it will take a lot more effort lasting many years. Speaker Ryan arranged a forum on working class problems, poverty and lack of opportunity, but only after Trump had made appeals to older white working class Americans who have done poorly in the last decade, making him the front runner in the race, and relegated Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio to single digit support.

LyrArc Article Gist
Republicans in the U.S. are talking about impeachment more than Democrats in tweets, ads and messages they send out. The Democrats are talking about other issues and this is not what you would expect after Democrats voted together on party lines to pass two articles of impeachment of president Trump. Republicans may even use the issue of impeachment in favor of president Trump as the impeachment process moves to the Senate where Republicans are in a majority. Republicans believe president Trump did nothing wrong and may call Senator Biden and his son Hunter Biden to testify in the Senate about activities in Ukraine, say experts.

LyrArc Article Gist
US House Republicans are pursuing cuts in spending of as much as 50% in many programs that are considered essential, such as a 50% cut in foreign aid at a time of global food insecurity, deep cuts in the FBI's counter intelligence budget, deep cuts in healthcare services and housing to low income Americans following the pandemic and high inflation, and other cuts to services benefiting workers and families. Democrats in Congress and president Biden oppose such cuts and hope to eliminate the deficit with cuts that do not place an unfair burden- taxes on the wealthiest with over $100 million and on stock buybacks would generate about $2 trillion to cover the whole deficit which is in the range of $1.4 trillion in 2023 moving to $2 trillion a year. Much of the Republican plan is being shaped by Mr. Trump's former Budget Director, Russell Vought, says this report in the NYT. Mr. Vought calls it an attack on the bureaucracy and woke spending. Other Republicans see this as an ideological approach that does not address today's problems. Chuck Schumer, Democrats Senate Majority Leader asks Republicans to spell out their plan. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Election of Democratic governors in two southern states could mark a shift as white voters shift back to Biden and Democrats. One year before presidential elections 2 Governors races in Kentucky and Mississippi, mayoral elections in Philadelphia, assembly elections in Virginia, and  an effort to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution in Ohio, offer insights into voter sentiment. In Kentucky  a popular Democratic governor faces a challenge from a candidate endorsed by Mr. Trump, and in Mississippi a scandal affects the reelection of a Republican governor who faces a challenge from a cousin of singer Elvis Presley. In Philadelphia a Democrat is nearly assured of a win as mayor. Republicans are looking to gain the assembly in Virginia.

LyrArc Article Gist
Galston says the Republican establishment's support for Trump before the Republican primary in Iowa is shortsighted and a mistake.

LyrArc Article Gist
This editorial in the WSJ responds to Donald Trump's comments about the system being "corrupt" and "crooked" and saying there could be violence at the convention. It says the rules are transparent and long standing in Wyoming, Colorado and other states where Trump has not campaigned or sought support. It calls on the Republican National Committee not to be intimidated by Trump's statements, especially as it says the the Republican party should not nominate a candidate who has the highest negative perceptions rating of a shocking 65% with national voters in a general election. Trump never complained when he won 99 delegates in Florida with 45% of the vote and 50 delegates in South Carolina with 32% of the votes cast- securing the most delegates because of a winner take all or winner take most system. It says Trump has so far won only 37% of all votes cast and won about 45% of the delegates, a process that can be seen as disproportionately favoring Trump because of the rules. This is particularly true because Trump's core support has remained at about 35%, and the fragmentation of the remaining vote has hurt the other candidates. About 83% of eligible voters have not voted in the primaries, making the process less representative than it should be. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in the Economist magazine says views in the Trump base of support in rural areas and among white working class voters are likely to persist for some time. One reason given is that many of these people live in isolation and little contact with the more educated urban voters in America. Another factor cited here is that only a fifth of voters follow politics closely, and of these voters only a small fraction have a good grasp of the positions of the two major parties. Most people follow the instincts and thinking of the groups they are with. As a result many of the issues covered in the media such as climate change and U.S. withdrawal from the Paris agreement, the Comey firing and the Mueller investigation into Russian meddling in the election, president Trump's Twitter comments, are not having much impact on the president's ratings among his support base at this early stage of the Trump presidency. Yet it is too early to tell only 6 months into the Trump term in office. After 8 years of president Obama's two terms in office voters who feel left out are not likely to change their views in so short a time. Republican voters as distinct from the core Trump base voter are also unlikely to change their views after 8 years of Democratic party administration. By staying close to traditional Republican party positions president Trump is likely to continue to have the support of the lifelong Republican party voters unless things change. Can a centrist position emerge after voter fatigue with excessive partisan opinion, as voters seek to make America a more quieter place and a consensus on working together to lift all boats emerges. This could be expected as time passes.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The WSJ responds to president Biden ramping up renewable energy plans and linking Republicans with Senator Rick Scott's plan for sunset provisions on federal legislation every 5 years that Biden says would include Medicare and Social Security. WSJ is critical of Biden's renewable energy plans and calls for increasing production of oil and gas to meet energy shortages and price increases. It is also against a wealth tax, Biden's $2 trillion Workers and Families Plan, and Biden's plan for Medicare to negotiate drug prices. WSJ says real disposable personal income increased $4205 under the Trump presidency 2017-2020, and has since declined by $374 with high inflation depressing purchasing power. The impact of climate change requiring brave choices and strong action is missing in the Republican plan as Republicans focus on attacking Democrats controlling the presidency and Congress on the issue of inflation. The issue of remaking supply chains are on both the Republican and Democratic agendas with president Trump giving more rhetoric against China's role in dominance of supply chains and Mr. Biden taking stronger action in Theodore Roosevelt's style of carrying a big stick and quiet posture in restoring America as a manufacturing powerhouse. The impact of climate change is short term rather than long term as seen by the heat wave in South Asia today, the fires in North America and Europe. Republicans are losing sight of the importance of making the shift on renewable energy quickly with some short term pain, as they push for oil and gas solutions and a less effective program for renewable energy. Mr. Biden is taking on bigger risks in the short term in the midterms and beyond but following a sound policy of aggressively pushing renewable energy. This can also be seen in the importance renewable energy is being given even in countries with a need for coal and natural gas such as India. Modi's plans in India are to buildup renewable energy capacity with aggressive targets for 2030. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Gerald Seib of the WSJ points out that the winners in the passing of the Republican healthcare bill in the House by a 4 vote margin are Speaker Ryan who never wanted the job in the first place, and president Trump who showed he could cajole Republicans into getting it passed because he likes winning. Now comes the hard part says Seib, when it goes to the Senate- House conservatives are not going to be happy when they find major changes they dislike. If the bill clears the Senate in a modified version Republicans will now have to own any issues with healthcare, including says Seib things that may not work out for pre-existing conditions- or for groups that are disadvantaged, including older people.