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WSJ's John Lyons interviews Brazil's finance minister Guido Mantega in May 2012. Mantega says Brazil is following a"developmental economics" model for growth, which is more appropriate for Brazil. This includes credit expansion and loans to the auto industry by state owned bank Banco de Brasil in 2012, in an effort to revive growth. He sees the 20% decline in the value of the Brazilian currency, the real, helping increase exports.

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Tankersley points to the broken links between economic growth and growth in jobs and incomes since 1989, which have created a shrinking U.S. middle class. In the postwar period before 1989, a one percent increase in economic growth generated a six tenths of one percent increase in jobs growth during economic recoveries. During the 1992 recovery under George Bush this was down to 0.4%. In the 2001 recovery under George W. Bush this dropped to 0.2%, during the current recovery under Obama this is at 0.3%. Income growth also showed a similiar pattern. Median household incomes declined from 1990-1992 and from 2002-2004, after adjusting for inflation, even with economic growth of 6% during this period. For the 2009-2011 recovery period the economic growth was about 4% yet real median incomes increased barely at 0.5%. By contrast from 1982 to 1984 with economic growth of 11%, real median incomes went up by 5%. The result workers median wages are lower now in the beginning of 2013, after inflation adjustment, than at the end of 2003, and real household income lower in 2011 than in 1989, says Tankersley. Why were the recoveries of 1990 and 2001 for the most part jobless? U.S. Federal Reserve studies show employers mindset had changed, instead of hiring back laid off workers during recoveries, employers did not add many jobs. Automation in factories requiring fewer workers, global outsourcing and supply chains, manufacturing overseas, lack of union-management cooperation on wages and jobs in industries such as the auto industry, increase in temp workers, all played a part in creating fewer and fewer good paying jobs. Some of this is playing out worldwide. In Japan the economic recovery has also come with similiar costs- moving jobs overseas for the auto and electronics industries, increase in temporary worker jobs with lower pay and benefits to about one third of all jobs, and depressed consumer spending as a result lowering the economic growth potential. Even the recent German economic recovery has come with an increase in lower paying temporary jobs and driven by exports to Asia. For the U.S. the situation was worsened by three additional factors- housing foreclosures and the hit to savings from the 2008 financial crisis, high cost of college tution and resulting debt, and the high cost of medical care. The Obama administration's effort to increase the minimum wage would help the poor, but do little to address the broken links between economic growth and jobs growth/income growth. The push for college education does not address affordability and neglects jobs training. Most of the questions raised by the changing patterns remain unanswered, which may be why Obama calls this a generation's task, not that of one administration....

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Greg Ip of the WSJ provides this exceptional report offering readers remarkable clarity on what the Republican Tax Law does- its high and low points.  High Points 1. It reduces the corporate tax rate to bring it in line with other advanced industrialized countries. The corporate tax rate in Germany and Japan is 30%, in the UK it is 19%. For 5 years businesses can write off capital equipment immediately instead of depreciating over a couple of years. This could boost investment and growth. 2.  The law takes aim at deductions that led to distortions. It limits the mortgage interest deduction, and caps the deduction for state and local taxes. This removes the incentive to pay more for homes that exacerbated the housing crisis in 2008. The Alternative Minimum Tax is largely removed. The Low Points 1. The biggest drawback is that lawmakers did not properly fund the tax cuts. Of the 10 costliest tax breaks nine were not touched, including employer health insurance, retirement savings, capital gains. Only the state and local taxes deduction was reduced. And a new tax deduction  was created, a 20% tax deduction for small business (proprietors and partnerships) paying taxes on their individual tax returns. Taxes on the wealthy or value added taxes, reducing tax breaks, is how other advanced industrialized countries paid for the corporate tax cuts, but did not happen here. Additional economic growth  to generate added tax revenues is the way Republicans in Congress say this is funded. Yet this is a questionable assumption as Britain reduced the corporate tax rate to 19% without seeing a surge in economic growth, as Greg Ip pointed out in an earlier WSJ article. At best the Joint Committee on Taxation estimates $500 billion over a decade in added revenues from added growth leaving $1 trillion to be added to the deficit. The WhartonPenn Budget Model (WPBM) estimates only $140 to $367 bill from the additional economic growth resulting in added tax revenues. Under this model only 0.03 to 0.08 percent added U.S. economic growth per year is expected from the Republican Tax Cuts. Such a situation would be bad  for the U.S. as the gradual improvement in Debt to GDP ratio to 78% following the financial crisis of 2008 would be sharply reversed taking the ratio to 97% by 2027. An unsustainable trajectory which will require tax increases in a few years and hurt investment in education, health and infrastructure into the future. This is what worries many experts most on both sides of the political spectrum today about what the Republican Congress has pushed through for a legislative "victory." This is why experts believe this is not serious tax reform and will require a new effort after 2019.   ...

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U.S. job growth slowed in February to just 20,000 jobs in nonfarm sector following strong gains in December and January. The 3 month average is 186,000 jobs created. Unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%. The figures are watched closely as Europe and China are showing slow growth. The European Central Bank said it will not increase interest rates till 2020 and announced fresh stimulus loans. The U.S. Federal Reserve is not expected to raise rates in the next few months. Economic output growth was 0.5% in the first quarter after 3% growth in 2018. Other reports show labor scarcity with wage growth outpacing inflation. 

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Britain's Office of National Statistics said that GDP declined by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2012 from the prior quarter. GDP declined by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2011. This means Britain is officially in a recession, with two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The ONS said GDP was 4.3% below its precrisis peak in the first quarter of 2008. The UK registered growth of a mere 0.4% since the coalition government of David Cameron took over in May 2010. This presents problems for prime minister Cameron in tackling the UK deficit. It also shows how difficult it will be for EU countries to address their deficits without economic growth. This has come into increasing focus with recent events in the Netherlands with the collapse of the government and upcoming elections on the issue of austerity cuts, and in France with the presidential elections and the swing to parties questioning austerity measures without economic growth.

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The Economist cites estimates from the Bank of England showing Britain's national output peaking at 1.5 trillion pounds in 2007 and not likely to return to that level till 2015. It points to fears of a lost decade. Meanwhile debt is rising from 600 billion pounds in 2008 to 1.1 trillion in 2012, making reducing the debt to GDP ratio by 2017 even more difficult. Lower growth affects tax revenues even as social benefit costs increase. Part of the problem is that from 2009-2010 to 2011-2012 public sector net investment declined from 48.5 billion pounds to 28 billion pounds. The Economist suggests Chancellor Osborne take up an additional investment in infrastructure of 28 billion pounds, even borrowing 14 billion pounds in the bond markets if needed, as a prudent step to revive growth. Small improvements in rail, roads and bridges could make up for a lack of large projects. Other suggestions include expanding the "funding for lending" scheme with banks to get capital to small business, finding more savings in the National Health Service, and changing the way Britain taxes development land that remains undeveloped. Britain, now joins, Portugal, Spain, France and Italy, in the failure of austerity measures alone creating a return to economic growth and lower deficits. In 2013 improving competitiveness and boosting economic growth become critical following years of austerity measures....

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Brazil's GDP increased by 0.34% for the 4th quarter of 2011 from the prior quarter. For the full year GDP increased by 2.7%, with an actual decline in GDP for the third quarter of 0.1%. The GDP growth for 2010 was 7.5%. The slowing economic growth reflects an overvalued currency, weak manufacturing competitiveness, and inflation. Brazil's growth will be lower than potential say analysts, and it will be tough to get to even 3.5% growth in 2012-2013. A similiar process is seen in other emerging markets. China's premier Wen Biao announced lower growth targets of 7.5% and a shift in priorities recently. And India's growth rate for 4th quarter, 2011, was 6.1%.

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The Center for Economics and Business Research in London estimates GDP growth for the UK of 0.4% in 2012. According to Britain's Office of National Statistics the UK economy contracted by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to the third quarter.

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The International Monetary Fund estimates global growth in 2021 at 5.5%. It also says that government support to support the economic recovery is essential calling for the strong stimulus being done in the U.S., Europe, Japan, India and other countries.

The IMF also cautions that everything depends on controlling the pandemic. There is special concern for countries in Africa and Latin America where vaccine supplies are needed.

The chief economist of the IMF, Gita Gopinathan, says India will see growth of 11.5% in 2021. The head of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva, says India has acted quickly to control the pandemic, considering the size of the population and its density.  The vaccination drive with 2.3 million healthcare workers vaccinated and 300 million to be vaccinated in the first part of the campaign, Georgieva says shows that steps are being taken for a strong recovery in 2021.

 

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Fears that the conflict in Syria might spill over and lead to a conflict with Iran pushed up oil prices. At the same time the new forecast by the International Energy Agency in early August 2012 showing a 20% decrease in demand growth in 2013, as a result of the economic slowdown in the U.S., Europe and China, acted to put a lid on oil price increases. Light sweet crude for September delivery was at $92.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on August 10, 2012, and Brent crude was at $112.95 a barrel on the Intercontinental Exchange.

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After increasing the price of subsidized diesel, the Indian government lays out a plan to cut the deficit over five years. The plan sets a goal for the deficit of 5.3% for fiscal year ending March 2013 to come down to 3% by 2017. Earlier India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), had said the government needed to take action on the deficit before it reduced interest rates. The RBI faces a difficult task in reducing rates to stimulate the slowing economy because inflation was 7.8% in Sept. 2012. At the same time the sharp decline in growth is a cause for serious concern- the most recent RBI forecast for GDP growth made in July for the current fiscal year through March 2013 is 6.5%. This may not be achieved as other economists have lowered the estimate to as low as 5% because of slow government action in economic reforms, high interest rates, and the uncertain global economc outlook. The last action by the RBI to lower interest rates was a drop of half a percentage point in April 2012. Much of the momentum for the Indian economy was lost in the first half of 2012 with the governments vacillating steps for opening the retail and other sectors to foreign investment. Only in October 2012 has prime minister Manmohan Singh set a clear direction by dropping coalition partners opposed to reforms and announcing new policies for foreign investment....

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Reeves says Reagan ever the imaginative politician seized on the idea of "supply side " economics of a not so well known economist Arthur Laffer. Ideas that were simple and appealing- you reduce marginal tax rates and generate higher revenues. This worked for some time with higher economic growth for a number of years, but the arithmetic of higher spending and borrowing and lower taxes would eventually lead to large deficits at the end of Reagan's term, just as price controls worked for awhile and then led to a surge in prices at the end of Nixon's term. When Reagan became President the deficit was 2.5%, when he left office eight years later the deficit was 5% of the economy. Interest payments on debt jumped to $169 billion in 1988, from $69 billion in 1981. Reeves says American politicians know so little about economics, to which it could be added, winning presidential and congressional elections is always a big part of the picture when it comes to economic policy. Which is why Nixon even with Milton Friedman as an advisor shifted to Keynesian policies of higher fiscal spending in 1971, and why Reagan turns to intuitively appealing and effective in the short term policies of having it all- higher spending, growth, and lower taxes. During the years of the two Bush presidencies and the Clinton administration the success of Reagan policies leads to a general sense as Vice President Cheney put it referring to Reagan and Treasury Secretary Baker's belief, that "deficits don't matter." Which leads us to the current situation where 2012 presidential election politics again frame the terms of the debate on deficits and budgets, only now the deficit is much higher and on a unsustainable path. ...

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To president Joe Biden the Democrats instincts of FDR and Truman, with the focus on building better lives for workers and families, comes naturally. Biden takes the Democratic Party back to what it was in the 1930's to the 1960's. Just today the Labor Department showed 336,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate steady at 3.8% for 2 years, 32 months of jobs growth. Brooks offers a clue on how this is happening- president Biden has aggressively directed American capital and resources to where it is needed most, in counties red or blue where economic growth has suffered in the past. Yet 57% of people polled cited by Brooks say the economy is in poor shape. There are another 14 months to go and the economy will get even stronger with the capital allocation and Biden economic policies of Build Better and America First. Workers and families will see real and tangible improvements in their lives in 2024.

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China's limited monetary and fiscal options in 2012, with the housing bubble limiting the option of increasing construction spending to spur growth, and inflation limiting monetary policy. The central bank's decision to reduce the reserve requirement by 0.5% is not expected to do much for economic growth, as there is enough money to lend. The problem is that there is not enough demand for loans in the current environment.

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David Kostin, Goldman Sach's U.S. equity strategist and his prediction of the S&P 500 at 1250 at the end of 2012. The S&P was at 1421 on April 1, 2012, the highest it has been since May 20, 2008. In his research note Kostin says that over the longer term the stock market will offer opportunities after a more normal growth environment is reestablished. This is similiar to the view held by John Bogle, founder of Vanguard. For the short term- the 2012-2013 time frame Kostin sees tactical risks, and results below average. The reason he gives is low economic growth and the large degree of uncertainty. The situation in Europe shows slowing to no growth and more deficit problems, and the sanctions on Iran pose risks for oil prices.

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Effects of the two storms in Florida and North Carolina reduced job growth in October. Overall the unemployment rate was steady at 4.1%. Job growth and the unemployment come from 2 different surveys one from households for the unemployment rate and one from employers by the Labor Department for job growth.  The hurricanes and weather events meant people were still being paid but could not get to jobs during the month of October, the estimate of this number was 512,000 in 2024. In 2016 and 2018 with hurricanes this number was about 250,000 in each year. 512,000 in 2024 is double the size from 8 years earlier in 2016, it shows that this could reach double this or 1 million jobs affected if another 4 years are lost pretending that climate change is "a scam" or that it was not serious, doing nothing and reversing direction. On average over 20 years the loss of jobs from hurricanes is about 69,000, excluding 2016 and 2018 it would be about 45,000. This shows that there are effects that are growing from climate change on jobs at an accelerated pace, another economic warning sign for the need for climate change action. ...

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Depressed industrial towns in the western part of Germany are the new base for the AfD migrant protest party in Germany. It also has elements of far right. During the last decade most of its strength was in the Dresden region in East Germany. As the economic crisis takes place in Germany in 2024 with negative 0.2% growth, even with migrant flow down to a trickle and deportations under the current Scholz government, the issue of migrants remains alive because of migrant attacks in different parts of Germany on innocent civilians and markets.

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Savings for China and Japan by increasing oil imports at low prices could amount to about 1% of the economy for each country. Japan imports of oil are one tenth of total imports, and amount to $75 billion. At prices half of what they were before coronavirus the savings are about $40 billion a year. This will offset some of the drop in economic growth of about 3% in the year ending March 2021.

For countries where the coronavirus has been relatively controlled with manufacturing and infrastructure projects ready to go ahead the benefit is greatest. China expects to see about 7% decline in GDP in the first quarter resulting in minimal growth for the year as long as export markets in the U.S. and Europe remain weak. For India it depends on how long the lockdown continues and how quickly economic activity can resume under new conditions. 

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What Krugman makes of the $1.089 trillion dollar U.S. deficit for fiscal year ending in Sept. 2012. He points out that the U.S. can have a stable to declining debt to GDP ratio with $400 billion debt. He cites the Clinton years (1992-2000) when the debt to GDP ratio declined from 49% to 33% with steady growth. What about the remaining $600 billion. He attributes this mostly to temporary factors which are reversible as growth picks up. Of this remaining excess deficit he says $400 billion is from lower tax payments to Treasury because of the 2008 economic crisis and the recession that followed. This includes the payroll tax cut which is also temporary to keep up consumer spending in the recession. The $150 billion is from unemployment insurance, food stamps, and other aid which is also reversed once growth picks up. He places emphasis on restoring economic growth as early as possible and reducing unemployment and using the recession for business to continue to invest in R&D, productivity, and government to preserve the social fabric, invest in education, and provide incentives for growth. S&P Nov. 8 report says the net government debt to GDP ratio is estimated to be over 80% in 2013. It will have to stabilize at current levels for S&P to preserve the U.S. credit rating, says S&P executive Chambers. The higher debt to GDP ratio in 2013 and lower growth rates expected makes the situation different from the lower debt to GDP ratios during the Clinton period. Britain, France and other major industrialized nations with political parties at either end of the political specrum have also chosen to stabilize or reduce debt to GDP ratios rather than take on the risks of them going much higher. The U.S. has the added problem of health care costs out of control with an aging population and about 17.9% of GDP going to healthcare costs in 2010 expected to increase significantly, as Medicare actuaries estimate enrollee numbers jump to 80 million in 2030 from 50 million in 2012. Democrats and Republicans have largely sidestepped this underlying problem in fiscal cliff negotiations....

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The Tax Plan of Jeb Bush, with the help of advisors Martin Feldstein and Kevin Warsh, lowers the top personal tax rate from 40% (including surcharges) to 28%, and reduces the corporate tax rate from 30% to 20%. The plan is designed to jumpstart the economy for higher growth by increasing business investment and incentives. Businesses are allowed to deduct 100% of new investment immediately. The idea is to increase capital investment so that benefits also go to workers in higher wages. The Bush economic advisors see 50% of the corporate tax burden as affecting workers wages- average compensation would go up by $2750 a year by 2020 and $6200 by 2025 in 2015 dollars. Companies can pay a one time 8.75% tax on money earned and held overseas, paid over 10 years- about $2.1 trillion of this income held overseas can be added to the pool available for business investment. As proposed earlier by Feldstein the itemized deductions including mortgage interest can be taken only upto 2% of adjusted gross income, suggestions during the reform effort not taken up by Obama. To reduce the excessive use of leverage in business decisions the field is levelled for use of debt and equity by removing the deduction for business interest expense. This editorial says that by putting in the details, which political leaders tend to leave vague on specific figures, Jeb Bush and his advisors have taken a crucial step forward. This it says, shifts the debate from current shallow posturing to how America can lay the groundwork for the kind of growth needed to help increase wages, increase economic growth to higher levels, and preserve America's position in the world....

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US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will spend Tuesday night August 2 in Taipei, Taiwan. China has threatened severe consequences and Taiwanese forces are on alert. Yet with over $1 trillion in China's exports to US and EU in 2021 the response will have to take this into account as also the US and EU to redesign its supply chains. This is the first trip of a senior US official to Taiwan as Speaker Pelosi comes next to the Vice President to succeed the presidency. The US response to the Russian attack on Ukraine was made in Biden's word as a deterrent to China in its role in the Indo-Pacific region. The Pelosi trip may be a reflection of this policy that seeks to maintain the US position that Indo-Pacific is international waters, that US policy will continue as before undeterred by actions such as the Russian attack on Ukraine with the support of China. And that US will engage fully with allies in the Indo-Pacific- Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan. And that is doing this with the cooperation of its allies in the region- Australia, Japan and India. US and EU imports from China are $541 and $522 billion over $1 trillion for 2022. Loss of even a significant portion of these exports from major tensions in the region would have a severe impact on Chinese economic growth. The US and EU are already engage in redesigning the supply chain and would also face problems in a transition similar to the gas rationing in Germany after cutoff of Russian supplies. The trade is too big a factor at this time. ...

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Orlik reports that the link between China's GDP growth and lending has broken down as credit expansion is accompanied by slowing growth. Slowing credit growth and lowering GDP growth even further is the price China's ecnomic planners are willing to take to forge a new path of sustainable growth, increasing efficiency of investment and increasing domestic consumption. The ratio of China's credit outstanding to GDP has jumped to about 180% in 2012 from 123% in 2008. Rapid expansion of credit is one of the danger signals before a crisis according to the IMF. Turkey and China are facing danger signals according to this IMF danger indicator.

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US Consumer prices rose at 1.5% annual rate in the 3rd quarter. Economic growth was 2.8%in 3rd quarter following 3% growth in the second quarter of 2024.

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Russia's economic growth is estimated by the Finance Ministry at 2.1% for 2017, the first year of growth after the recession of 2014. Putin is up for re-election in March 2018, after the elections in 2012 were marred by protests. Consumer demand is up and the main reason for sustained growth that is expected. This is a favorable environment for the election. Though incomes are hit, Putin remains a favored candidate by two thirds of voters, according to polling by Levada Center. The changes needed include moving up the retirement age from today's 55 years for women,and 60 for men.

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The Obama administration is pushing for new U.S. fuel efficiency standards of 56.2 mpg by 2025. In May 2009 President Obama announced domestic car and light truck fuel efficiency standards of 35 mpg by 2016. Europe is expected to reach fuel efficiency of 60 mpg by 2020. This would still leave Europe considerably ahead of the U.S. in fuel efficiency for automobiles, but the gap would be much smaller. For the last several decades the U.S. has fallen sadly behind Europe and Japan in fuel efficiency. The perception of poor fuel efficiency hurt the automakers badly during periods of high fuel prices and when buyers were facing difficult economic choices. The automakers are beginning to grasp this fact. Mark Reuss, president of General Motors, commented that- "it's very challenging, but its upto us engineers to provide high value to the customer and support the environment." This is an issue that has serious national and global implications as it affects the future prices and demand for oil, emissions, and future economic growth. It would also bring the U.S. in line with Europe and Japan when it comes to fuel efficiency of automobiles. ...