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Sohrab Ahmari of the WSJ talks to Masrour Barzani at a forward base on the Syria-Iraq border in Dec. 2015, at a time when terrorist attacks in France and the U.S. are shifting public opinion in the UK, Germany and the U.S., as well as France.

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Liz Sly of the Washington Post provides this exceptional account of the different phases of the war in Syria originating in 2011 with the Syria democracy protests, suppression of protests by the Assad regime, civil war by 2012 , Russian intervention by Putin, the U.S. under Obama and France under Hollande on the sidelines in 2012-2014. The result is a breakup of Syria by 2014 with coastal areas under the Assad regime supported by Russia and Iran, the Kurdish controlled areas, areas controlled by various rebel groups, and the control of other areas by Islamic State which also gained control of Mosul in Iraq. France conducting an air campaign in Syria in 2015 in response to terrorist attacks originating in Syria. With a number of foreign countries involved in support of Sunni and Shia factions in the conflict, the Turks opposing Kurdish autonomy, the U.S. supporting Kurdish forces after withdrawal from Iraq under president Obama, the situation by the beginning of 2016 was much more complex than in 2011. The five year period led to a situation where half of the population of Syria of 22 million is displaced or turns into refugees, about 2 million in refugee camps in Turkey, and 500,000 seeking asylum in Germany and Austria. In Iraq an additional 2 million are displaced or refugees with the Sunni-Shia conflict. Understanding of the events and insights over these 5 years can be gained from the group- "Events for the democracy protests and the struggle for freedom in Syria." The intervention of foreign countries and the missing element of U.S. leadership in the region in 2011-2015 as the U.S. and France remain preoccupied with economic crisis, lead to a situation where most Syrians decide to leave the country entirely. ...

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A meeting of the Financial Action Task Force in February gave Pakistan months to move against the money sources and assets of terrorist groups. This could lead to action against banking links with the outside world.  This financial group acts against money laundering and terror financing. It is arguing for sanctions in the event no action is taken. Pakistan's deputy interior minister says Pakistan is taking a proactive approach and banning one group, detaining members of another group named Jaish that operates in the Kashmir region.

Similar action was taken since 2002, and since then the ebb and flow of terrorist groups in Pakistan has taken place over 2 decades, with the groups also attacking internal targets in Pakistan.  In the period of Soviet invasion of Afghanistan the U.S. trained and Pakistan supported jihadist groups so that the problem goes back to 1979.

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Belgium's justice and interior ministers acknowledge the error in not taking action after being alerted by Turkish authorites of Islamic radicals suspected to be a serious terrorist threat. Turkey's president raised this issue in the media about the Belgian officials failure to act on a Turkish request to take into custody a radical arrested in Turkey for trying to enter Syria. The individual was one of two brothers who were suicide bombers in the attack at the Brussels airport and subway in March 2016.

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Zeit Online shows in this article the continued efforts of the Russian government of president Putin to discredit Chancellor Merkel, following efforts to do this for Hillary Clinton in the U.S. presidential election.  During the Ukraine crisis and the settlement accords of 2014 Germany was seen as a partner by Russia, following sanctions, and renewal of these sanctions Russia no longer sees Germany as a partner. This report shows Russian efforts to discredit chancellor Merkel and the use of RT German channel, WikiLeaks reports of Chancellor Merkel and the TTIP agreement, for the same purpose. The refugee crisis following what is happening in Syria with Russian involvement, terrorism, financial crisis aftermath from 2008, are being used  says Zeit Online to support a movement for "order" as the state ideology now put forward from the Russian government. This could be an early indicator for the 2017 German federal elections, says Zeit Online. Merkel has said that she supports continuation of western sanctions on Russia. It is hard to see what Russia has gained in improving its economy and the standard of living of the people from this type of political action. Putin was able to achieve economic goals during 2005-2010 using good Germany- Russian relations as shown in LyrArc. This was the earlier period of Putin's terms in office, with a broad group of advisors, including finance minister Kudrin, who set forward a prudent economic course for Russia including foreign investment. The world and Russia are poorer from the departure from this earlier set of policies which would have enhanced Russia's economic growth. Kudrin was fired in September 2011, and the economic course has gradually drifted away from what is most prudent for the Russian economy and growth, and for the global economy. Nationalism was part of an earlier period before 1950, that led to frequent wars and economic catastrophes. A new course has been set since then, especially by American presidents Truman and Eisenhower, and people in India, China, the developing world, in Europe and in the U.S., would see little to gain from the politics of that earlier period in world relations.  ...

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Richard Barrett, former head of overseas counter terrorism operations of Britain and now head of the UN AlQuaeda and Taliban monitoring group, in aspeech to the Washington Institute of Near East Policy, says Al Quaeda is a diminishing threat because a new generation of Muslims who have little recollection of the events and are less interested in religion. And CIA officials say they are having greater success penetrating Al Quaeda, because of vastly improved intelligence capabilities. In terms of intelligence and capabilities, the technical colllection, intercepts are much better, and overhead surveillance is much better. The human intelligence is much better and they have fewer competent people.

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This essay in the Economist magazine describes the voter rejection of ruling parties and their candidates in France. Two presidents and two former prime ministers from the Socialist party and the Republican Party, Hollande and Sarkozy, Valls and Fillon face rejection. And another candidate from the Republican party Juppe also has fared poorly. This leaves two outsiders LePen of the National Front, and Macron a former Economy minister in the Hollande government who launched En Marche as his own movement for moderate change alternative in 2016. The rural-urban and less educated-more educated divide which was evident in voting in the U.S. election and the Brexit referendum is now seen in France, says this essay. Research from the Economist shows National Front support highest in outlying areas of major cities. The fears of immigration, terrorism, and globalization leaving parts of the working class behind are factors in this election. Support for the European Union is also a factor as it has suffered in recent years.     ...

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WSJ reporters Chow, Schechner and Kostov provide this exceptional report from the 11th Arondissement in France, scene of the terrorist attacks in Nov. 2015, describing the conflicting visions of French society- one secular and the other in other parts of the country anti-immigrant. The National Front of Marie Le Pen sees immigration as "a mortal threat to France" and won about 25% of the vote in France in the 2014 European parliament elections, a first for a anti-immigrant party in Europe. It did very well in rural areas and small towns of northwest France and southern France. The debate on immigration is now dominating headlines in Europe, including Denmark, Norway, Germany, France, Rumania, Hungary, and other countries. The Syrian refugee crisis has exacerbated the situation.

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The Washington Post editorial board warns against repeating the mistake made by president Obama of an hasty withdrawal from trouble spots in the Middle East. Many of the negative events in 2014-2017 were a result of a lack of action where needed or hasty withdrawal leading to the refugee crisis in both Syria and the European Union, and an increase in terrorism, This also led to the rise of extreme politics in many countries, and outside interventions that have worsened the situation.

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Egypt's military declares the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization in December 2013.

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A WSJ/NBC News poll taken in Dec. 2015 after the San Bernardino terrorist attack on Donald Trump's proposed total ban on Muslims entering the country, shows 57% of the people surveyed opposed to it, and 25% supporting it. Among Republican primary voters 39% oppose it and 38% support it showing the Republican voters almost evenly divided on the issue, and the proposed ban not affecting Trump's standing with his supporters. About 56% of Republican voters see Trump in a positive light compared to 26% negatively, showing that Trump has strong support in the Republican party. The divergence in views sharpens when considering that half of Republican primary voters have an unfavorable view of Muslims while 79% of Democratic primary voters having a favorable view. In the country as a whole the poll shows about 60% have a favorable view of Muslims.

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Pulitzer prize winning journalist reporting on the Middle East and Saudi Arabia, Karen Elliott House, describes the changes in Saudi society and politics against the backdrop of the changes in the Middle East. Her exceptional reporting and insights provide a look into the Middle East at a time when young people make up the largest demographic and are looking for jobs and economic opportunity, with political structures lagging far behind in meeting the growing aspirations. The larger backdrop of the region extends into South Asia, with large Muslim populations unable to make the right choices for freedom and economic progress because of internal divisions, widespread illiteracy and lack of education of the rural population, and poor leadership. The lag affects western society in different ways, including the threat of terrorism, sporadic involvement in the region's conflicts, and a sense of not being able to do the right thing by its own ideals.

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Any hopes that the U.S. would compromise on its position on trade issues were dampened after the G-7 Summit meetings in Canada. Europe and Canada are frustrated at their inability to move Mr. Trump on trade issues. Mr. Trump made jabs on trade, terrorism and immigration during 2 days of meetings. There is also uncertainty about the NAFTA though trade negotiations on NAFTA continue in Quebec. Trump says the negotiations were friendly and moving along until Mr. Trudeau made his own remarks about not being pushed around by its larger neighbor. On some issues there is not even an agreement on facts as president Trump says the U.S. has a trade deficit of $100 billion with Canada, Trudeau says the U.S. has a surplus. Trump says the high cost dairy industry is protected by Canada.

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Infratest Dimap polling institute is commissioned by DW.com to find out what Germans think of the refugee policy of chancellor Merkel one year later. In summer 2015 Merkel said on Aug 31, "We can do it." Costs related to the refugees are about $17 billion, do Germans think services are overstretched for education, healthcare housing and other services. On the other side German society is aging and for every 100 unemployed people there are 200 open positions for skilled personnel. But the refugees who are accepted do not have the skills required and have to acquire the skills or given training and education. On this issue DW.com asked the question whether it will strengthen the German economy. About 51% agree and 45% disagree on this question, and about the same number agree and disagree on the question that Germany will be overstretched providing the services for housing, education, healthcare and other services. The higher educated and young are more favorable to accepting refugees, with those over 50 and basic schooling unfavorable. On the AfD side most people are unfavorable, and in the Greens party most are favorable. On terrorist incidents probability, over 58% think this is more likely, 38% disagree. On the question of whether this will make Germany more diverse 56% agree, 40% disagree. Overall the situation appears to be balanced, with a range of views expressed, and the positive and negative sentiment "evenly balanced", says DW.com.  ...

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Black or illicit money in India is estimated to be $400 billion to $1 trillion, much of it in the domestic economy. About 30% of land transactions are in black money, and it is growing with 500 and 1000 rupee notes increasing in circulation by about 79% and 106% between 2011 and 2016, according to government sources. The Narendra Modi government has announced that 500 and 1000 rupee notes will no longer be accepted in transactions as of midnight. People have 50 days to exchange them at banks, and banks will keep records so that this money can be taken into account for taxes due. A senior official in the Department of Economic Affairs, Mr. Das, says-"You cannot have a shadow economy representing a substantial percentage of the real economy." Big banks will be closed on Nov. 9, and ATM's till Nov. 11, 2016. Mr. Modi, the prime minister said in a televised address: "In the last few years the specter of corruption and black money has grown." He cited "the challenges posed "by threat of terrorism, the challenge posed by corruption and black money." ...

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WSJ describes the role of U.S. Attorney General Barr working with president Lopez Obrador of Mexico in strengthening Mexican law enforcement, increased border checks to prevent heavy weapons trafficking, and making the changes in the legal system that would help extradition to the U.S. After a period in which Mr. Obrador vacillated in his approach for tackling migration he deployed the Mexican National Guard on the border with Guatemala. Mr. Barr met twice with Mr. Obrador to get Mexico's close cooperation to combat the opioid crisis in the U.S. After a new North American trade deal was signed into law to replace NAFTA Mexico is working closely with the Trump administration in a number of areas after initial disagreements. After the death of U.S. citizens in Mexico in an ambush in November president Trump called for designating the groups as foreign terrorist organizations. Mexico is now making changes for law enforcement and says it is doing so in Mexico's own interests. ...

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The Economist says working age young people arriving as migrants from war torn areas such as Syria should be welcome in the EU, because the EU's society is aging. As the labor force declines in the EU, it will need younger workers to make up for the declining labor force and the large number of pensioners to be supported. Fears of terrorism could be overcome by having a strong screening process, and cultural assimilation can be speeded up by providing free language education and access to the university system, as in Germany. This would turn the Syrian refugee crisis into a plus for countries such as Germany, which have a large program for newcomers. The war in Syria is so deep and widespread, and emigrants have made a long and perilous journey, making asylum a credible reason.

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India's options to respond to a terrorist attack in Kashmir in are limited by winter weather and the global political situation. Saudi Arabia and China have moved closer to China in recent years. Saudi Prince Salman visited Islamabad, Pakistan, and New Delhi. Britain is distracted by Brexit, and the U.S. president is engaged in a struggle with Congress over a border wall with Mexico.

With no powers making efforts to de-escalate the situation India's prime minister Modi- who faces elections in coming months- has to craft a response that meets domestic pressures to respond with restraint.

 

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The contrast between modernizing, developing East and South Asia ( from Mumbai to Shanghai) with war torn desolate West Asia (from Tehran and Baghdad to Kabul and Islamabad) is so striking today that it is something to reflect upon for wisdom and understanding. UAE support for Sudan's RSF Rapid Strike Force and Saudi support for the military - fracturing of Sudan, errors piled on errors led to the civil war in Sudan. A civil war in a country neighboring Saudi Arabia just across the Red Sea. Saudis and UAE were on opposite sides briefly after UAE pulled out of Sudan, UAE acting in this way to object against Saudis requesting US sanctions on UAE.  Once close partners have moved apart as they spread their influence in different conflicts in the Middle East.  This has not created a region that can grow economically without the disruptions of conflict in the way other parts of Asia have emerged to modernize the countries as in Taiwan, Korea, China and India. In neighboring Pakistan another conflict has emerged as partners split, with looming conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Yemeni Houthis are in conflict with the US and affect the Persian Gulf shipping lanes.  Iran with it's pursuit of weapons programs and nuclear weapons is using capital that is badly needed to improve the economic situation on arms buildup for the regime and for allies in Lebanon and Yemen, leading to protests and crisis. In this way the Middle East has failed to use oil wealth to modernize the entire region. Much of it was wasted in Iraq and now in Iran by policies that led to war and regional conflicts not modernization and technological transformation that has happened in Asia. The US has inadvertently becoming a partner to this as when the Obama administration helped fund Iran's economic rebuilding which was instead used to fund the military, and before that the Reagan administration support for Iraqi socialist ideology regime. The challenge for China was how to modernize after the Japanese invasion and civil war. In Korea it was how to modernize after the civil war. In India it is how to modernize with a smaller neighboring country Pakistan promoting terrorism and wars now with China's support. In Asia all these challenges were and are being met to steadily and persistently modernize to European standards with a singleminded focus and determination to meet the aspirations of the people with the US business working alongside Taiwanese, Korean, Chinese, and Indian governments and private industry. In West Asia various ideological (Iraq), military (Pakistan), religious Shiite (Iran), religious + modernizing (Saudi +UAE) with erratic leaders and little representation of the people, has destroyed the tranquillity of the region and destroyed democratic forms of government, destroyed bottom up education and health of the population except for priviliged groups in countries in the region of West Asia. Involvement of US and Europe or Russia in West Asia has led to distintegration of Soviet Union (Boris Yeltsin) and deindustrialization of US and Europe (Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama administrations) with business shipping out manufacturing to China while wars engaged the attention of American and European elites in Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan. The entire west Asian scene for 1950-2030 has been a disaster, one massive disaster for all involved. The contrast with East Asia and South Asia reminds one of the words from Robert Frost of New England in Mowing- that reflects on the enduring value of honest labour. "My long scythe whispered to the ground. What was it it whispered? It was no dream of the gift of idle hours, or easy gold at the hand of fay or elf: anything less would have seemed too weak to the earnest love that laid the swale in rows. The fact is the sweetest dream that labour knows. My long scythe whispered and left the hay to make." ...

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Tranlation of an oped article in French on the Lashkar -e Taiba terrorist group in Pakistan, and its links and sponsors in the Pakistan ISI agency which is itself a state within a state.

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A new security law for Hong Kong is passed at the end of a weeklong session of the National People's Congress. This gives China's agencies powers to police activities in Hong Kong and removes Hong Kong's autonomous status established by a treaty with Britain that arranged the handover in 1997. 2878 lawmakers voted with one dissent. China says it is intended to control separatism, terrorism and foreign interference in Hong Kong. It bypasses Hong Kong governing authorites and the effect is that it removes the "one country, two systems" basis of the handover by the British.  This sets the stage for the U.S. to remove Hong Kong special status in trading relations. The U.S. is joined by Canada, Australia and Britain in expression of "deep concern," and Japan has also said it is "seriously concerned" and "will address the situation in an appropriate manner." Under the U.S. Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 the U.S. treated Hong Kong as autonomous for trade and economic matters. Mr. Pompeo, the Secretary of State for U.S. says this status will no longer continue. As supply chains are being reassessed during the coronavirus, the end of autonomous status for Hong Kong would mean the beginning of a new period in changing economic relations across Asia and the Pacific. ...

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The Syrian National Coalition wins recognition from about 100 countries as the fall of the Assad regime approaches. U.S. recognition is seen by the Coalition as delayed, coming only a day after banning of a Muslim group fighting the Assad regime, giving the impression that the Obama administration was more concerned about counter terrorism than the Syrian people's popular struggle against the Assad regime.

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Emmanuel Macron faces a challenging situation in  the 2022 second round. He badly needs left wing supporters of Mr. Melenchon who came with one percentage point of right wing Marie Le Pen. Macron had expressed right wing sentiments about immigration and terrorism even more than Le Pen during the year leading upto this election. That this has alienated some left wing supporters is evident in a nIpsos poll for FR24 that shows 30% or about a third of the 22% of the voters that supported former Socialist candidate Jean Luc-Melenchon are likely to vote for Le Pen, who has campaigned on the issue of cost of living and softened her image and position on the European Union. 34% of Melenchon's supporters said they will support Macron and 36% said they are undecided. It is this undecided vote that could make a difference. Add to this the 25% of the voters who did not vote at all and the election depends on who can convince this segment. To reach these voters is Macron's main concern in the 2 weeks before the second round of the election on April 24. Macron says he will campaign hard-"from dawn to dusk, in direct contact with voters." He will have to offer something that convinces working class voters who some see he has humiliated during his first term.  ...

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The WSJ's Monica Langley provides insights into Donald Trump's campaign strategies, some of them right out of his book "The Art of the Deal." His target voter is from a think big strategy to get voters across a broad spectrum using the slogan "Make America Great Again," with a knack of tapping into a deep well of voter frustration with the political establishment. How to get attention in the media is the next step Trump tackled by using social media to the fullest - using Twitter often, making statements that attract attention such as the ones on China, Mexico, Senator McCain and Muslims that tap into failure of political correctness to address voter frustration on trade and jobs, immigration and terrorism. The Trump campaign has 14 million followers on Twitter, and 50 million "engagement" accounts on Facebook- that cost very little. Social media is to Trump in 2016 what community networking on the PC dashboard was to Obama in 2008. As the WSJ pointed out in an editorial, the splitting of the Republican vote among many candidates, and the failure of candidates to grasp the nature of the unconventional campaign waged by Trump- descending into attacks based on target groups of voters on every candidate except Trump- created the opportunity Trump has grasped with his knack for improvising along the way. Commonsense campaigning without sophisticated strategies, improvising often along the way, using the available medium of social media at little cost to get the message and slogan across, helped Trump make the deal with voters to upset the political establishment. The Sanders campaign is also based on careful repetition of the same slogan and facts about inequality and lobbyists, over and over again, offering strong action on health care and college tution just as Trump offers strong action on China trade, immigration with the idea of the wall, and barring entry of Muslims for terrorism till "we figure out what's happening." The difference being that Trump thinks big and targets the entire electorate of his party's voters in the primaries from the beginning, and a broad based campaign on many issues. Underestimating your opponent carries many risks in politics, never more so than when you are out of touch or not listening to voter frustration, and fail to speak up to it....