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Big changes are expected in energy markets after 2026 following the end of the war with Iran, the naval blockade and the Hormuz straits closure. Even when the Shipping returns to Hormuz there will be continued uncertainty and prospect of conflict. As a result China, India, Japan and the US and EU will look for new sources of supply in Latin America for oil and gas including in Guyana, Brazil, Argentina, and in Venezuela. This NYT Analysis  confirms the shift to renewables will accelerate after 2026 with 2-3 years return on investment for renewables, and in 2026 wind+solar+nuclear now generating more electricity worldwide than gas. OPEC stranglehold on oil prices is weakening with UAE's exit from OPEC, and the US+ Venezuela+UAE expanding production. This will benefit poorer countries in the world in Asia, Africa and Latin America, Middle Income countries like China and India, as well as US and EU through lower prices for the new overall energy mix, with a higher component of renewables from every year 2027-2030. Lower priced component for oil possibly at $50 a barrel holding steady to 2030. From this perspective Hormuz's importance will decline over this period to the point that the world's wealth sucked up for far too long in the Middle East through the twin mechanisms of  high oil prices and decades of wars will be shifted back to infrastructure in the EU, US, India and China, Brazil and Indonesia. For the poor countries like Pakistan, India, Indonesia, China and others this is a big deal because instead of the wealth going to princes in the Persian Gulf  it will benefit people in Egypt, Arab countries such as Morocco and Tunisia,Turkey, Pakistan and India, China. Long delayed infrastructure rebuilding in US and European Union can now take place.The shift and trend to renewable energy as a major component of the energy mix of over 50%-60% in India could be expected by 2030 and have a major impact on climate change. (India has already crossed 50% of its energy from renewable sources). China will have installed half of the new renewable energy capacity added by 2030 and this too will add to the fight against climate change. Overall this combination of events and changes underway are overwhelmingly constructive and are not anticipated in this way by most of the world's media including the NY, which see slower growth when the opposite is now the case with accelerating and steady growth expected 2027-2030, and 2030-2035. For the US and EU it could not come at a more opportune time with the determination to invest at home and reindustrialize, build new infrastructure, for India to build a modern country by 2040, and for China or Japan not to get stuck in middle income status with continued modernization to 2040. For the poorest countries to work with these major nations to improve standards of living. For the US it also means the end of the border migrations flows that happened in 2025 taken to the next stage in 2026 and 2027 ending all drug flows across its borders with Mexico- as more lives are lost to fentanyl and other illegal drugs substances (1.25 million since 1999) than were lost in the Korean War (36,000 deaths), Vietnam  War (58,000 deaths) and World War 1 (116,000 deaths) World War II (418,000) all 4 wars combined. Issues of unfair trade deindustrialized the US. This coupled with drugs destroyed small towns and communities (that were based on manufacturing and lost factories) across the US for over 3 decades. The tackling of these issues will also add to the general sense of well being of the people in the US- and also in the European Union. The modernization underway in China and India+Indonesia+Brazil is also part of these changes, promise a rising tide that will lift all boats if we continue together to carefully select the right path ahead and chart the course clear eyed and clear on purpose. ...

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US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says this is not chaos in tariff policy because you don't change 70 years of policy overnight. He says China's is highest because it has the highest trade deficit, then EU, Japan, South Korea at 15% because of the smaller deficits with these nations, Vietnam because it is used  by China to send products to the US, India because of geopolitical reasons buying Russian oil. See Dasha Burns, Politico White House Bureau Chief's  interview with USTR Jamieson Greer.  He says about India- Jamieson USTR calls India "an outlier" and says "I'm confident we will get a deal with India in the near future." India he says has largely corrected its imports of Russian oil and negotiations are underway for a deal.  ON USMCA Greer says of the $31 trillion in trade with Canada and Mexico $29 trillion is us right. trade between Canda and Mexico is small. So he says it makes sense to negotiate separately with Canada and separately with Mexico. This suggests that there doesnt need to be a USMCA- separate deals are just fine says Greer. Mexico has gained much in automobiles under USMCA- US wants to make more in the US including auto parts which it can do by negotiating this with Mexico. It does not make a ton of economic sense to marry the three economies together, says Greer, as the import export profiles, lab,or situations are all different. Are Tariffs good for the economy and do they lead to higher prices? Greer says inflation was down in the first DJT term in trade with China and tariffs. Greer says there is never a 1 to 1 with tariffs. It tariffs become a kind of leveage in getting agreements. That is the style of these tariffs. You tell Ecuador or Brazil we don't make these here so there will be no tariffs on bananas and on coffee. Says Greer- we have seen inflation in check, imported goods relatively low priced. We have seen that we can have growth and higher wages with tariffs at the same time. The growth in 2025 third quarter at 3.8% annual growth, and Atlanta Fed predicting 4.2% growth in 2026. And tariff money can be used for paying down the debt and financing America's reindustrialization, Greer says members of Congress are asking about this.When a new administration comes tariffs will still be part of the playbook. ...

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After making headlines the issue of TikTok is no longer making news. Here is what has happened since- TikTok took the case to the Supreme Court after the Biden Administration's effort to bring it under US security with American ownership. The Supreme Court ruled in favor of the government. Social media helped Republicans and DJT in the election. DJT wanted TiTok to be an American company if it was to operate in US. China was opposed to this and would not allow ByteDance the owner of TikTok negotiate this-leading to an impasse. The DJT administration worked out a relationship  with China by September 2025 following tit for tat tariffs in May 2025. Xi's strategy was to put rare earths on the table after it had gained a 90% monopoly on rare earths processing technologies and supplies. Some supplies include a site in Greenland, so that the Greenland issue as opponents of US acquisition have made appear is not fiction. DJT Administration pulled back and negotiated a deal with China but realized how the US had left key gaps in its security which is why the Greenland issue came up in 2025. Similar to how Democrat president Harry Truman had done as the Soviets expanded influence in Greece and Turkey by 1948. Little of this making it to almost the entire US press and the entire European press, including Democrat Harry Truman's 1947 offer of $100 million ($1.5 billion in 2026) for Greenland, rights, title and ownership similar to Alaska purchase by Seward, and US Virgin Islands purchase in 1916 from Denmark.   The deal makes TikTok an American/ China investor run company with Byte Dance ownership of 20%, Oracle 15%, Silverlake US equity firm 15%, Abu Dhabhi (UK type) MGX 15%, and prior investors 30%. Prior investors are General Atlantic, SIG, Steve Case's Revolution with JD Vance having equity, Dragoneer, NJJ Capital. The company now valued at $20 billion based on 200 million US users. Yet this does not address the dangers and damage done by social media hours for youth in the US, endless hours from education shifted to phones and social media videos. Australia has banned it for under 16 year olds, UK parliament has voted to ban, French parliament has also voted for a ban, China has strict rules that protect its youth for use specifying hours and restrictions, leaving the US and India, Brazil vulnerable to dangers of social media. Strictly speaking You Tube is considered as social media even though it serves an information function, Facebook and TikTok are where a lot of the damage to education takes place in social media. US is entirely leaving its young people especially women unprotected. Once the fentanyl issue is tackled attention will again focus on these dangers to creating good citizens in the US  with civic education if democracy is to be preserved, something endless numbers of lobbyists- which even in Teddy Roosevelt's and FDR's, JFK's days have opposed- will again oppose.     ...

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Horowitz provides a rare portrait of Donald Trump's father, Fred Trump. This is  useful in understanding Donald Trump because as Trump says frequently many of the traits- self-promotion, aggressive business promotion, taking advantage of political connections to advance the family business, penny pinching for construction sites- are all traits he inherited from his father. His father did not want to go to Manhattan as business was already nice and easy in Brooklyn and other places. The son went into Manhattan and put his name on Towers he built in the city. Fred Trump benefitted from the FHA and depression era programs setup under the New Deal by FDR, and the flow of immigrants and returning veterans, the zoning allowances given by politicians. Without this the business would be nowhere as successful as it was. Making it self-made only upto a point, in the intensity and the individualism displayed. Fred Trump was born in 1905 to German immigrants who spoke mostly German at home. His brother John was into books, and went on to teach at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, so the family was certainly aspirational immigrant. Fred was the doer and started his business with his mother at the age of 21, and by 28 had won the mortgage services business of a failing German bank, by 1938 at 33 he had setup property developments in Brooklyn. Federal Housing programs were the key- homeownership was emphasized in the New Deal with F.H.A. 25 year mortgage loans- as affordability was an issue in the Depression era period. Fred Trump keenly used these loan subsidies with price tags so it would be a stretch to say the business simply went up on the intensity and the business skills.  ...

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Did a major U.S. chip maker Advance Micro Devices give away advanced computer chip technology in deals that saved the company as it faced a downturn in business. In Jun 2019 the U.S. Commerce Department issued an order that bars several Chinese companies from getting American technology. In the meantime Chinese versions of AMD chips are rolling off production lines in China, according to this report in the WSJ. It shows that AMD's partner in China, a military contractor, already used those chips to build what could be the world's fastest supercomputer. The AMD deals gave China access to state  of the art x86 chips made only by AMD and Intel Corp. Here the WSJ says AMD's CEO in October 2014 Lis Su, faced AMD's financial difficulties when she joined, with lack of cash, large debt, and declining revenues. Some analysts predicting bankruptcy protection. The deal for China's company Sugon to manufacture the x86 chips included $293 million in licensing fees, and $371 million for selling an 85% stake in its two factories in China and Malaysia to China Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Co, a state backed financier. The U.S defense Department tried but failed to get AMD to submit the deals to Cfius, the committee on foreign investment in the U.S. that has people from Treasury, Defense, Commerce, Justice and Energy. The Treasury Department ruled in AMD's favor in the closing months of the Obama administration. Defense Department officials say the deals were structured to sidestep U.S. regulations through two interlinked joint ventures. The first venture focusses on R&D and production controlled by AMD, the second on design and sale controlled by AMD's Chinese partner. The second company venture enables China to show that the resulting product was developed locally in China. In another development Sugon publicly announced that it was using the AMD x86 chip to advance China's chip technology advancement just as it had done for high speed trains. Making indigenous an imported technology, designing it at home, absorbing it, and then innovating to make China a leader. By mid 2017 this information reached General Spalding at the Trump White House. Lawmakers wanted to give Cfius committee new powers. By August 2018 Defense department submitted the Sugon deal for review a second time. After the Defense Department's deputy undersecretary for Research and Engineering criticized the whole deal publicly in front of industry executives, Commerce Department stepped in and on June 21 it asked for the unwinding of the deal with Sugon,  imposing new export restrictions to limit access to U.S. technologies. For AMD the cash infusion from China enabled it to get back from near bankruptcy. China gained x86 technology in its bid to make the fastest supercomputer, the U.S. faced with another loss in technological edge, and AMD shares jumped 80% to $30 per share recently. Brian Spegele, Kate O'Keefe, and Yang Jie in Beijing, covered this story for the Wall Street Journal. ...

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Iran's oil production filling up existing storage leading to oil well shutoffs May 2026. Tankers near oil fields are used as storage as Iran faces prospect of filled up storage tanks and ships at sea at some point in the next few weeks. It has slow throttled production, increased storage, yet with no oil getting out of Hormuz straits Iran will at some point in the next couple of weeks have to shutdown some of the oil wells. The oil tanks cannot be monitored for storage level and their is existing storage in refineries and other places making it difficult to say precisely when but it could be in the next couple of weeks. This plays a part in Iran's thinking looking for ways to settle the conflict. US insists on getting all nuclear material out of Iran as an indispensable condition and the full and entire reason for the war not anything against the Iranian people. It is a basic idea- non-proliferation on nuclear weapons. Why in the Middle East- the answer is that for 5 decades there are wars in the Middle East, many small nations created by the British and the French who take no responsibility today, and the prospect of spread is real, sectarian conflicts for centuries, and a situation worse than in the Balkans where World War I started. The region extends from Iran, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, Pakistan, each nation destroyed by 5 decades of war including many Americans, Russians Europeans dead.  Costs of War Project at Brown University estimates are that 4.5 to 4.7 million people died in these wars. The US is not a colonial power like the British and the French, the Dutch. It seeks no oil as it is self sufficient, and it seeks no strife or involvement in the centuries old saga of the sectarian religious conflicts in the Middle East, having settled its own between Catholics and Protestants in the 17th century so that the Industrial Revolution and Scientific Revolutions could take place to create the Modern World of science, medicine, and industry we know today. Many of the nations of the Middle East seem averse to whole heartedly embracing the European contributions in this achievement as China, India, and America have done, in the process changing how their people think and live, and strive daily to further these achievements. ...

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Biden's ultimate faith in the fairness of the American cause and the American people gets him two big wins with the $280 billion semiconductor bill, and the $369 billion climate change action bill. Biden says about this when many had given up hope- "The work of government can be slow and frustrating, and sometimes even infuriating. Then the hard work of hours, days and months from people who refuse to give up pays off. History is made. Lives are changed." With Europe at war and struggling to get through the winter with gas rationing it was up to America to lead the way as the world faces ever increasing floods, fires and heat waves that affect food supply and environment. And Schumer? The New York Democrat asked about the effort quoted his father who passed away last year. "As my late father said: you need to persist. God will reward you." For months Mr. Manchin a critical vote in the US Senate had opposed the Democrats proposed bills. Then Senators Mark Warner of Virginia, Chris Coons of Delaware, John Hickenlooper of Colorado took a different approach. They did not openly criticize Mr. Manchin, and appealed to his sense of history, his zeal for playing a leading role in a high stakes legislative deal. Schumer and Biden were willing to make some concessions for fossil energy now that with the war in Ukraine the US needed to export LNG to Europe to replace Russian supplies. China and India were still going to be using fossil fuels after COP26 and after the pandemic induced lower growth. The US had to find a different approach some fossil fuel concessions would make it possible to use it as abridge towards the larger goal of getting ahead on renewable energy in a big way. This opened the way for a deal that centrists could support.  ...

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China Merchant Port Holdings takes a 70% stake in the Hambantota Port project, in an agreement with Sri Lanka Ports Authority. It will handle the commercial operations of the port under a 99 year lease. This is part of the plan to convert the $6 billion Sri Lanka owes to China into equity. Hambantota port has losses of $300 million since 2011. China plans to invest $600 million to develop the port. The port project is a $1.12 billion lease to China. Sri Lanka's ports minister says the port will not be a military base for any country and will operate under Sri Lankan law. China is making the investment as part of its One Belt, One Road Initiative, which has aroused concern in Japan, India and Australia.

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US president DJT says about television news network CNN in December 2025- "it is imperative that CNN be sold." Paramount's deal for merging with Warner Brothers is one way this is planned.

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The redesigning of suburban office space to fit remote work and hybrid work needs in the US.

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It was a Labour government in 2005 that inroduced the rule that allowed a migrant who remained inthe UK for 5 years to be able to apply for leave to remain and to have path to citizenship. It is now 20 years since then and this has done  a great deal of damage in the UK as it faces divisions in society that affect the plans to improve lives of the people and invest in building infrastructure. European Commission of Humnan Rights also drafted these rights in wanton fashion not accepting the rights of any people in any nation to live in their own neighborhoods without what are called asylum hotels and migrants. Denmark had such laws before 2015. Denmark changed these laws, and the UK finally is set to change these laws that hurt growth and investment in Britain with unnecessary distraction from the task of building infrastructure and investing in public services from migrants illegally entering the country. Under the new rules in Denmark temporary residenc epermits are granted only for 1-2 years at a time, no permanent visas are granted. To gain permanent status one has to have full time job for several years and speak fluent Danish. Shabana Mahmood, the new UK head of the Home Ministry says-  “Denmark shows us how to be firm but fair: removing the incentives that draw illegal migrants to their borders while providing refuge to those in genuine need. “That is why we will follow the Danish model to restore order and control to our borders.” Mahmood's position is supported by Green and Labour voters is shown More in Common polling. This is important for Labour to succeed. She says about illegal migrants and the strain on public services- “The levels of illegal migration are putting immense strain on our country, and our public services – creating division within communities across the country. “Illegal migration is undermining the contract between government and its citizens – eroding support for the asylum system entirely.” ...

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The terms of the Greece bond deal with private bondholders of March 2012, in which Greece's bondholders (mostly French and German banks) took about 53.5% loss from the face value of exisiting bonds. The deal was accomplished through a swap of new bonds with extended maturities of 10-30 years for bonds with shorter maturities and by reducing the face value of the new bonds.

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Venezuela investment of $100 billion by US for oil and dilapidated infrastructure- how it looks 5 months after Venezuela's new government in place. The US president called for $100 billion in investments. The Washington Post looks at the current talks by Chevron, Exxon, ConocoPhillips with the Venezuelan government. It shows how far and how quickly things have changed with the US Treasury account that has KPMG Audit and is intended for the Venezuelan people funds for reconstruction of the economy. US media speculates on many topics - how the orderly transition can be made, how the oil industry can be revived and how the investments can be made for infrastructure that has been neglected and broken down. The main point to remember says Marco Rubio who with his long association with Latin America was instrumental in setting up the strategy to get Venezuelan recovery and public participation in phases by finding leaders who can do this within the existing setup left by Chavez and Chavismo. Delcy Rodriguez was chosen. The main point is that it is only 5 months of 2026 and a lot has been achieved to set the right direction. Not mentioned in the Washington Post is that Delcy Rodriguez is in India this week on a trip that brought her in contact with many Indian leaders to meet India's petroleum needs. What can India do in exchange? As part of a long term plan Venezuela shares the experience of India through colonial rule, and can emerge as a key partner for development of its infrastructure and economic revival along with the US. This will change the dynamic into something different- the US offers not merely the Monroe Doctrine principle in the Western Hemisphere but also can now show what was never possible since 1821 and president Monroe - the opportunity to tie up with the US expanded relationships in Asia, with India and Japan that are supporting a huge transformation for 1.4 billion people in India. It offers Venezuela a tie up of its energy resources with US oil companies technologies, and the infrastructure technologies and labor of Japan and India, digital transforming tech nologies of India and Japan/Taiwan. This offers the potential for real revival in Venezuela and in Latin America that never before existed and is now being put in place.  ...

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How Calpers went over its head and invested in risky properties at the crest of the real estate boom when there were signs of a weakening in property markets and did this with borrowed money for 60-80% of the deals, so the returns on the downside are magnified. Much of it is for land near Pheoenix and Los Angeles that are empty tracts and now worth little in the depressed property markets, with losses of over $ 1 billion on the Los Angeles area land deal which was a $2.5 billion deal. alpers expects paper losses of 103% on its housing investments in the fiscal year ended June 30. Calpers residential and property investments represent 10% of its $182 billion portfolio and its real estate holdings are twice the percentage of the portfolio of average pension funds. Its also showing a 41% loss on its stock portfolio. Greed seems to have motivated Calpers as it sought higher and higher returns even as the market was showing signs of weakness, with returns on real estate deals in the good years averaging 12%. Calpers is the pension fund of the 1.6 million stae workers in the state of California. The average employer contribution rate for California governments including cities and counties is 13% of payroll. Calpers has estimated that if its investments show a20% decline then the payroll of employers would be hit with another 2 to 5% increase....

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The U.S. is moving quickly to gain access to an effective vaccine by September or October 2020. It is doing this by providing the money for companies to conduct trials and ramp up manufacturing in a big way. The U.S. government has agreed to give Astra Zeneca upto $1.2 billion to secure supply of a Oxford University developed vaccine which could be ready by October. Astra Zeneca has agreed to make the vaccine under a licensing deal with Oxford University's Jenner Institute and promised it will not make a profit on this. U.S. has also given $483 million to Moderna in Cambridge, Massachusetts, for making the vaccine. Both Oxford and Moderna are testing the vaccine on humans. Oxford uses a tested older technology, Moderna a new technology. UK has given Astra Zeneca $79 million to secure 100 million doses of the vaccine, with 30 million ready by September. Oxford is also in negotiations with Gavi the international vaccine alliance, and Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations on further deals to boost production. Oxford began a 1100 person study in April, and is  doing a 5000 person trial in late May.  ...

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Efforts by president Macron to setup a meeting between Rouhani of Iran and president Trump in New York to reduce tensions of miscalculation and disproportionate response after the attacks on Saudi oil facilities by drones and missiles. Macron says the "maximum pressure" sanctions placed by the U.S. are resulting in Iran placing "maximum pressure" on its neighbors. The Yemen civil war is fought by proxy.  One outcome appears to be the Houthi rebels backed by Iran in Yemen announcing a unilateral ceasefire. And the Saudis announcing a ceasefire of their own. This gives the European Union, the U.S., Saudis, Iran, China and Japan, time to consider the implications of the counterproductive approaches of the different sides to give enough room for new talks. Iran nuclear deal, U.S. relations with Iran, and any new talks on these issues are now seen in a different way. The nuclear deal is now linked with other issues in the region, including building peace in the region. Countries that depend on oil flowing through the Straits of Hormuz such as Japan, China, South Korea, and India are now also involved as silent partners pushing for peace in the region.  ...

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National Guard deployment in New Mexico by Democratic Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham in September 2025. Grisham says of Albuquerque -“It is one of the most dangerous places. I want real results.” And Albuquerque Police chief Harold Medina says it is one of the best decisions he has made to get the help of the National Guard to cut crime and make the city safe. “I honestly hope they’re here for the next year," says Medina.

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Richard Portes of the London Business School provides two good reasons why the EU's decision to adopt the French Banking Federation's proposal for rollovers with 10% interest costs is a serious mistake. It doubles the interest costs from 4-6% to 10% with 2% Greek GDP growth and makes debt servicing untenable. Portes says the real Brady Plan from the 1980's included a 35-40% bondholders haircut. Deals of this type have a precedent- in Mexico in 1988 and in Argentina in 2001 such bond exchanges were soon followed by deals that placed bondholder haricuts on creditors. The lesson from Latin America in the 1980's, says Portes, is that the burdens of servicing a debt of such proportions under onerous conditions only extinguishes the enterprise, investment and productive capabilities of the particular country trying to service that debt, making the debt even less serviceable. See the Wall Street Journal's editorial on this deal which it calls "The French Deception." The terms sound like Greek to the editors leaving a sense that French banks are only saying "gimme." The only benefit achieved may be putting off the problem and avoiding contagion to Portugal and Spain. Yet this is not that much of a benefit when one realizes that the problem has not gone away, and is likely to look much worse six or nine months from now....

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India makes the largest deal for commercial aircraft in aviation history by buying 470 planes from Airbus and Boeing. 250 Airbus jets and 220 Boeing airplanes. American Airlines ordered 460 planes in 2011. WSJ says based on list prices the Boeing orders is for $45.9 billion and the total order is for $85 billion. The White House announced the Boeing deal. The Airbus deal was announced by pm Modi and France's president Macron. The purchase was made by Air India. India is now the fastest growing aviation market in the world.

Airbus increased deliveries by 6%, and Boeing by 41% in 2022, as air travel and aircraft sales increased following the pandemic.

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This WSJ editorial says president Trump can exit because president Obama never really built support for the Iran Nuclear Agreement of 2015. Stephens in the NYT cites a Pew poll at that time showing only 21% supported it with 49% not supporting it.  This editorial says the deal made by Obama gave Iran $100 billion of sanctions relief and a chance to revive its nuclear weapons program after a 15 year waiting period. It says this increased conflicts and wars in the Middle East. President Trump said in his announcement on May 8, 2018 that the deal never led to "peace, or calm and never will." Another issue of winning popular support is mentioned, as WSJ says president Obama did not submit it as a treaty to the Senate for approval. The Trump administration has its own work now to build support with Europe in fixing the nuclear deal's weaknesses, and winning support from Democrats as well as Republicans for sanctions and new negotiations that help bring a better more peaceful Middle East, so that Iran can focus on lifting living standards and improving the economy, setting a new course. ...

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Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella testifies at the US Justice Department's trial of Google that the deal Google made with Apple led to its search engine becoming ubiquitous with monopoly power. Nadella said that the unfettered power of Google made it difficult for Microsoft to compete with Google on the internet. 

"Despite my enthusiasm that there is a new angle with AI, I worry a lot that htis vicious cycle I am trapped in could get even more vicious." Nadella said that Google's deal with Apple made it oligopolistic.

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The TPP as negotiated by Nov. 2015 gives biologics drugs 8 years of protection. Senator Hatch of Utah and the pharmaceutical industry seek 12 years of protection to recoup costly investments in these drugs. Japan says the agreement would be difficult to renegotiate. There is opposition to extending it beyond 8 years in many TPP countries.