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Distressed sales accounted for 45% of sales in April. And the increase in foreclosure propertiesafter the expirty of moratoriums on foreclosures continues. This depresses prices. About 10.2 months of inventory of homes exists at present.

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This leader in The Economist reviews an essay in the magazine's October 8-14th, 2016 edition by U.S. president Obama. In it Obama points to the unfinished tasks of his presidency and what comes next as tasks to be done for the U.S. economy. The Economist points out the problems in the 2016 election campaign where there is a lack of discussion of economic issues as a serious problem. Obama lists as priorities efforts to improve conditions of people left out in the recovery, reducing inequality, offering more job opportunities, and increasing productivity.

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China is competing directly in advanced industrial goods such as semiconductors, EV's, machine tools and other products that German industry produces, shrinking the market for German products. By keeping its markets open after the US limited access to its markets for highly subsidized products made in china -with the goal of displacing American goods, jobs and factories under China's successive 5 year plans- Germany now faces the same direct threat the US faced and which took away America's production base. America's textbook based economists, and their followers in American business, who added loads of meaningless math to economics - adding lack of transparency for financial shenanigans- and took out the economic history, who lacked humility to see that other rivals could emerge from nowhere, bear a great deal of responsibility. Germany is now awakening to this experience of the United States and the threat it poses to its own industry.

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ZipRecruiter estimates shows 11.3 million job openings posted in June in the US. Economists surveyed by the WSJ shows there were 11.4 million job openings in April, and 11.1 million in May in the US. The number of people looking for jobs was 5.9 million in April. The US jobs market remains strong.

There is a slight softening because of high interest rates and slowing demand. 390,000 jobs were created in May according to Labor Department. This is expected to soften to 250,000 jobs in June. The unemployment rate staying at 3.6%. The shift out of leisure, hospitality because of covid exposure and lower wages, fewer opportunities continues. There is also as shift from schools to higher paying jobs in other sectors. The hiring in tech and real estate is not as strong as earlier with changing outlook in these sectors.

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August 12, 2015 marks the change in shareholding structure at The Economist. Pearson, which sold its stake in the Financial Times newspaper to Japan's publisher Nikkei, sold its stake in The Economist, as it shifted its focus to the education industry. Pearson had a non-controlling 50% stake in the magazine since 1928. Three fifths of these shares are being sold to a minority shareholder, Exor, the holding company of the Agnelli family in Italy. The rest of the Pearson shares are being bought by the parent company, The Economist Group. In this editorial the magazine's editors describe the background in which this takes place, and the reasons why this will be good for the magazine and its independence. The shares held by The Economist Group are controlling shares, which ensure the independence of the publication.

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Economists are calling this a "wage-less" recovery in the U.S. With unemployment at 8.8%, wage pressures are weak. Average hourly earnings were flat in March 2011. The annualized growth of average hourly earnings for the last 5 months is 1%, according to Gluskin Sheff chief economist Rosenberg. After accounting for higher inflation, real wages are actually falling.

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The Economist magazine points out that even without the one-child policy birth rates would have declined in China because of rising participation of women in the work force, education, delayed marraige, and the high cost of education and housing for more children. As China pursues a two child policy starting in 2015, many of the same factors are at work and many women are seen as unlikely to have two children. The Economist says the right policy would have been to scrap this policy altogether. This may actually happen as China sees the social and economic factors behind the falling birthrate continuing to operate limiting the size of families, and creating problems of rapidly aging society as in Japan. Latin America provides strong evidence to support the Economist magazine's point because of the falling birthrates in Brazil and Mexico for social and economic reasons.

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US president DJT speaks at the Economic Club of Detroit, looking back at a year of rapid action on the US Border, Big Beautiful Bill, Tariffs action, Cutting Cost of Living action on several fronts, and action against drug/people trafficking by Venezuela, Mexico. Highlights of the speech which comes to a state that decided the 2016 election for DJT and which is the center of America's automobile industry started by Henry Ford in Dearborn, Michigan. He had restored the automobile industry to the days when it was the leader in the world and when names such as Henry Ford, Alfred Sloan of General Motors, were the envy of the world, by bringing auto manufacturing back from places like Mexico, Japan and Germany. Back to America after years of reckless outshoring by American business under the Bush, Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations, on the advice of equally reckless economists and advisors to these administrations. The president did not say this but this restoration continued in a different way for labor under the Biden administration that followed DJT policies but focused on the other side of the coin for the auto industry - protecting worker's wages by Biden standing on a picket line for the strike by unions for higher wages. After these wages were restored from years of outshoring and pressure on wages, the need to do the work of bringing companies back through tariffs on imports as leverage in tough negotiations with Japan, South Korea and Germany was left to DJT and his administration. The president stated clearly that the economists and predictions were proved wrong on tariffs as none of these predictions of tariffs passed on to American buyers have come true. As DJT made certain the companies not to lose their business in the US decided to avoid taking that road and acted to reduce their profit margins and costs. As Scott Bessent, a veteran of Wall Street and now Treasury Secretary who conducted these negotiations for DJT, has repeatedly pointed out the tariffs were a way to get these tough negotiators and their governments from Japan, S. Korea and Germany to cooperate. It is nowhere written in the code of fair conduct of nations that the US should helplessly after decades of letting these countries benefit put its workers out of work and its industries get destroyed, when the US was taking on the additional burden of protecting these nations from hostile neighbors. ...

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US DJT Tariffs impact 1 year later- global trade has held up well with US unemployment at 4.4% and economic growth at 2.1%. China imports down from 20% in 2016 to 10% ten years later in 2026. For DJT that was a promise kept leading to a sharp decoupling of the US economy from the Chinese economy that was leading to huge trade deficits of 1 trillion dollars. Too much of the world's supply chain was tied up with manufacturing in China. It got so bad under Reagan, the two Bushes, Clinton/Obama that the US and EU were facing deindustrialization with huge risks to the future of the US and Europe as industrial powers. 150 years of industrialization and scientific advancement, the great achievements of Europe and the United States since 1860's was going up in smoke over reckless policies of Republican and Democratic elites who gave little thought and barely understood the long run effects of their policies and textbook theories of the economy. Most economists from ivy league universities got it completely wrong. ...

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Economist Wu Jinglian, was adviser to Chinese leaders Deng Xiaoping, and Jiang Zemin. He sees risks ahead for China in the crony capitalism that has developed there. Business tycoons and corrupt officials he believes have hijacked CHina's economy and manipulated it for their own ends, which he calls crony capitalism. Its asystem in which the bureaucrats and their allies benefit from bribes and payoffs, and by steering business to their allies in industry. With increasing corruption as theses bureaucrats want to get richer Wu is not optimistic about the future. He sees three dangers, awidening income gap, inefficient monopolies, and crony capitalism. WHile there is corruption and amarket economy in India, the big difference is the free press and strong media in India which keeps corruption out in the open whereas in China there is more scope for this and crony capitalism because of the tight control on the media. Younger economists like the head of its soverieign wealth fund and its central bank have been influenced by Wu....

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After the rate cut by the Bank of England the best that Britons can hope for, says the Economist magazine, is that the recession is mild and the warnings of the Remain campaign on the economy do not turn out to be true. The QE and the rate cut will not be enough to stave off a recession. The Economist calls for public investment spending to improve business confidence, but says this is unlikely with the chancellor, Philip Hammond, not preparing any immediate action.

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Impact of $100-$138 a barrel oil prices from Iran War on US economy is modest - stable unemployment inflation at 2.9% instead of 2.7% and decline by 4 tenths of a percentage point in GDP growth. This is the view of 50 economists at banks, companies and research consulting gorups surveyed by WSJ March 16-18 cited in both the WSJ and her inthe NYT. NYT says unless the prices reach $200 which is unlikely, there won't be a recession. The reason is that the US is self sufficient in oil needs and exports oil and gas to Europe, and now to India and Japan. In fact in the domestic economy oil producing states in the Permian Basin including Texas, Wyoming, New Mexico and state of Alaska will actually see more growth. US will also generate more revenue from oil exports. US will also be able to leverage the situation to bring Venezuelan production with additional investments in upgrading the Venezuelan oil fields from American oil companies. This will be more attractive at higher oil prices and revenue generated will be sent to benefit the Venezuelan people. What it does affect lis ow income people with long commutes to work in the US. ...

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The Economist looks at the 3 options facing Britain and America to tackle the financial crisis, and evaluates each option for its merits. It says nationalization is an option, and adds that it supported the nationalization of Northern Rock in the UK early on. Where nationalization is the best option considering the scale of the problem, as in the case of RBS in the UK, this should be followed without exacerbating the problem by pretending that it can be avoided. With its huge losses and large committments by the government of Britain, the state ends up with majority ownership. So for individual banks this policy would be a good one. With the government on both sides of the table, this avoids the major problem of how to value the assets, and of the bank's shareholders plotting to grab taxpayer's money. Expect to hear more about nationalization as a best option under the circumstances, says the Economist. This may also be because the situation is likely to get much worse in 2010. The single most important criteria should be it says returning the individual bank to good health. The other option is to collect toxic assets in a bad bank, with the clean bank rid of these assets not having to set aside reserves for losses of an unknown magnitude. This helps get lending and credit starting to flow again if banks are more willing to lend. The third option is guarantees by the government regarding the bad assets and insurance. The Economist does not think the insurance and gurarantees offered by the British government recently will work by itself, and feels it should have been combined with the separation of toxic assets of banks in a bad bank. The Economist also feels scale will be needed considering the magnitude of the problem and its continual escalation....

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The Economist magazine describes Trump's business assets based on a few buildings in Manhattan, including one on Fifth Avenue. Compared to other real estate firms Trump's assets are small and lack the organization and structure typical of real estate firms. Asset values estimates also have a large range, as it lacks transparency. Not much can be concluded about his business skills says the Economist, other than that his company is not exceptional, has not raised permanent captal in capital markets, or developed a truly global business. Much of the business now relies on licensing the Trump name to properties, especially golf courses, following Trump's success with a television show "The Apprentice." In terms of cash flow the television show may have produced much of Trump's income in the last decade. The Economist says Trump's performance in the real estate business is mediocre when compared to his peers.

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The Economst cites an IMF June 2012 paper by Arcand, Berkes and Panizza that shows private borrowing and size of bank balance sheets once it reaches 100% of GDP begins to slow growth. A second paper by Cecchei and Enisse Kharroubi at the Bank for International Settlements confirms this showing that at low levels private borrowing and expansion of bank balance sheets increases economc growth, but at high levels exceeding 100% of GDP a large financial system actually hurts economic growth. Andy Haldane of the Bank of England points out the fact that for the century to 1970 bank assets increased by an average of 0.6% a year faster than GDP in 14 large economies, but increased much faster after this with ratio of assets to GDP increasing by about 3 percentage points a year. Bank assets increased from 50% of GDP in the 1960's to about 200% of GDP by 2007, reaching 500% of GDP in Britain, 800% of GDP in Switzerland, and 126% in the U.S. The increase in world trade accentuated this period with trade increasing from 22% of global GDP to 33% in the period 1996-2008, and banking following this trend across borders to developing countries. At the same time excesses caused an imbalance with hyper growth in bank balance sheets through taking on more leverage and banking risks. The Economist sees this process going back in reverse as bank balance sheets shrink in the face of regulation and efforts for financial stability following the 2008 global financial crisis....