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The Labor department reported that unemployment surged to 10.2 % in October 2009. 190,000 jobs were lost in October 2009. Ther breakdown lokks like this. Construction lost 62,000 jobs, manufacturing lost 61,000 jobs forming the bulk of the job losses. Its interesting to note that only 16,000 jobs were gained in the federal government and 16,000 jobs were lost at the local government level making the net gain zero at the government level. And what was gained in the health care sector 28,700 jobs and in educational services 10,700 jobs for a total of 39,400 jobs was completely offset by 39,800 jobs lost in retail sector. The useful point here is that local governments are hurting and retail sector is hurting and little is going to change this as long as job losses continue and the gains at the government level and healthcare and educational services are simply offset by losses inretail and local government. This situation will likely ocntinue into 2010. The losses in manufacturing are likely to continue. A sample of companies like Eaton, Boeing and John Deere shows that 2010 will not generate many jobs. Eaton has decided to have its 55,000 employees take aweek of each quarter, so there is one twelfth work capacity unused which is where Eaton will turn to before hiring. At Boeing there are layoffs of 10,000 planned but its also hiring 3800 workers for anew factory in South Carolina, and at John Deere 452 workers will be recalled in November but in December there is aplanned shutdown. A September Survey by Business Roundtable found that 13% of firms planned to increase employment in the next 6 months, but 40% planned to cut payrolls. So manufacturing looks to go on like this in 2010 with slowing but continued job losses. The numbers show that in October the median number of weeks it takes to find ajob up to 18.7 weeks which is the highest number since the sixties. What gets ignored by the small print you find it in the Wall Street Journal is the broader unemployment rate which is 17.5% when you include those who have stopped looking, those who work part time but need full time work and the marginally unemployed. The rates jump for younger workers here and in Europe also. ...

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Paul Levy of JLL Partners, a midsize private equity firm, reminds readers that private equity firms also invest funds for the pension and retirement funds of teachers and firemen, and the endowments of universities in the U.S. He responds to the criticism about overleveraging and pushing companies to bankruptcy by overloading them with debt and other questionable practices of private equity firms.

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The percentage of credit card balances owed by subprime customers, according to Keefe Bruyette and Woods, is 30.3% for Bank of America, 29.8% for Capital One, 27.9% for Discover, and 27.3% for Citigroup. The companies ranked by market share in private label cards are GEneral Electric 39.2% and Citigroup 21.7%. All these companies that have turned risky customers into cash cows with hefty fees and interest rates will see much of this disappear with the President's new law banning some of the practices of these companies that hurt consumers. Most of the credit card industry has operated without some of the basic consumer protections one would expect in a highly educated and literate society with democratic governance. Even retailers like Target depend on this for profits. Target which has its own credit card operation earned $355 million in credit finance charges and $87 million in late fees and other revenue in the last fiscal quarter.

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Scotland joined with England and Wales to form Great Britain in 1707, at a time of increasing opportunities for Scottish people in the expanding British Empire. Britain's shipbuilding industry had a major base in Glasgow. During the Thatcher Conservative government Scotland suffered, and decades of globalization led to gradual deindustrialization for Scotland, the demise of the shipbuilding and other industries. The Labor Party under prime minister Blair pursued a "devolution of powers" policy, creating the first Scottish parliament following a referendum in 1999. Ironically this has changed the fortunes of the Scottish Nationalist Party led by Jack Salmond, a economist first elected to the British parliament in 1987. Salmond became head of the party in 1990 and led it to second place in 1999 elections, followed by a win in 2007 and 2011 elections. Salmond is seen as a vigorous campaigner, who can speak above others and not seen as a good listener. The party gained the confidence of Scottish voters by running a competent administration led by businessmen who were well aware of problems in local communities. Programs such as free prescriptions for medicines were popular with voters. The Labor Party stands to lose its voter base in Scotland (former Labor prime minister Gordon Brown is from Scotland), and the Conservative Party will also suffer a blow with a yes vote to independence. Polls show voters don't fully trust Salmond, but a majority 39% support an yes vote to 38% no vote, with 23% undecided. Britain just emerging from a deep recession would lose Scottish oil revenues of about 6 billion pounds, and the economy would suffer as business waited to see how things would turn out before making investments. Scotland now manages health, education and transport. Even without independence Scotland now stands to gain more powers and control, and control a higher percentage than the 60% of Scotland's budget that the Scottish government manages today. Scotland represents about 148 billion pounds or 9.2% of the UK GDP....

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Dominic Randolph, headmaster of Riverdale Country School, New York City, is skeptical of the value of an education that focusses so much on test taking, IQ and scores, and does so little to build the character and resilience that is so essential to life experiences. He says the ability to handle failure and learn from failure to build a better life is something students fail to learn in the competitive school environment of today.

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Questions about the euphoria for US stock market performance in 2011. Negative impact of housing market, rise in food and fuel prices, and the precarious condition of state and local government finances, raise concerns about the economy and stock markets for 2011-2012. John Makin sees a one third chance of sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone, and a 40% chance of China not making a soft landing, in a video interview with Wessel of the WSJ, December 30, 2010. This would impact stock markets in the US. WSJ's Brett Arends column also expresses similiar skepticism. Robini sees housing losses in 2011.

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American, Alaska Airlines, and Southwest Airlines are the only 3 airlines that never filed for bankruptcy. Analysts say that this has left it with a higher cost structure, and estimate that American's costs would be $600 million lower if it has the contracts Delta and Continental have. Delta Airlines merger with Northwest in 2008, and the planned merger of Continental and United, does not affect American Airlines management. CEO Arpey sees American as more nimble and trying to build something profitable, and sees being smaller than these newly merged competitors an advantage. American is focussed on markets around 5 major cities- Dallas, Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami and New York. In international travel it has One World partnerships with British Airways and Japan Airlines.

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Mario Monti, Italy's prime minister, tells Alessandra Galloni of the WSJ, "Germany will never let France go." French economist Sorman says Americans do not realize that the EU and the Euro were created for political, not economic reasons, and the idea was to bring peace to Europe and especially between France and Germany. He sees the EU countries staying through this crisis together, and France emerging more competitive from this experience.

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The US economy expected to grow 1.5% in 2008 down 0.3% from estimate in October 2007 World Economic Outlook after taking into account a recent update in the model that lowered all forecasts 2005-2008 by half a point. Of this about 0.2 or 0.3% may be the impact of the stimulus package which is included in the estimate. Is this a bit on the high side? Its expectation of growth suggests it does not expect a recession or that it will periodically revise its estimate downward based on new information and the extent of consumption, housing and investment deterioration it sees unfolding in the months ahead. For the European economy it has taken its earlier estimate of 2.1% down to 1.6%. This suggests that it sees the US crisis having an impact in Europe. China's rate of growth will be 10% down 1.4% from 2008 and the Middle East growth about 6% unchanged from 2007, Latin American growth 4.3% down from 5.4% in 2007. This suggests global growth outside USA will remain healthy. However its not clear what would happen if the idea of a recession in the US becomes likely with new information in coming months, and if this is introduced into the model how much would growth in China and the Middle East and India come down in that event. This is the kind of scenario that should also be available from the IMF to know the downside and whether the global growth would sustain till the US recovers from the housing and credit crises in years beyond 2009, given that it would take some time for the excesses there to correct themselves....

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Bill Gates on the impotance of giving specific feedback to teachers for improvement and the designing of a teacher evaluation system that relies on a number of factors beyond just student test scores. He says teaching is more complex than that and requires other factors such as peer group and other educator assessments based on classroom observations, student feedback, and items that reflect a focus on improved teaching skills and effectiveness in the classroom setting. Public disclosure of ratings is a bad idea says Gates, because it is not intended to embarrass teachers.

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Friedman highlights the importance of an interview with President Obama by Atlantic magazine's Jeffrey Goldberg. In this interview Obama gives a thoughtful understanding of what it means if Iran acquires nuclear weapons. The greatest danger is in nuclear proliferation. Obama brings to this an understanding of this issue from the time he focussed on this issue as a student at Columbia University, when he described the risks of nuclear proliferation in the Columbia student newspaper. There is the risk of an escalation in the development of nuclear weapons in the Middle East first, and then elsewhere. And there is the risk that nuclear weapons fall into the wrong hands. The situation would create problems like that faced in North Korea or in the India-Pakistan region, but increased by many times the current dangers. The entire nuclear de-proliferation effort and the efforts to de-nuclearize weapons stockpiles that took decades to accomplish with the Soviet Union could come undone- and it would then be necessary for all countries to invest in advanced technologies for defending against nuclear weapons, setting in motion another arms race. The current situation reminds people that the issues raised by nuclear weapons development will always be with us, and require a worldwide concerted effort, at official and public level, bringing in scientists, public opinion worldwide, and educating the public in all countries of the larger danger to mankind. The issues need to be put in the right context beyond nations and politics, beyond international conflicts and competing interests or ideologies, including Israel, Iran and any other nation looking for nuclear weapons as a solution for conflicts. Shultz, Perry, Kissinger and Nunn after a series of meetings at the Hoover Institution called for the update of the old policies of nuclear deterrance based on mutually assured destruction used with the Soviet Union, to reflect the new threat of terrorism- in an op-ed NYT 3/7/2011. The focus of this effort is on a new Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty, with all nations giving up nuclear material to an international nuclear material bank. Senator Obama strongly supported the efforts of Senators Lugar and Nunn in de-proliferation work after the collapse of the Soviet Union and joined the senators on one of their trips- Broad and Sanger, NYT, 7/5/2009. A major effort to reduce NATO, U.S. and Soviet nuclear weapons is called for to lead by example, providing a framework for other means of settling regional conflicts and educating public opinion in these countries, and moving forward the negotiating of the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty. In many ways public opinion will have to lead the way in all countries as governments can lag behind- the efforts of Sam Nunn and Dick Lugar and the many unnamed people in the Soviet Union who aided their efforts show the importance of this....

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Power Point presentations are banned at Amazon. Founder and CEO Bezos thinks this encourages lazy thinking and prefers narratives about 6 pages long, which he sees as making people think clearly and focus. Titles are not important and people are encouraged to work outside their strict job description to do work that will help Amazon. What excites the buyer is kept uppermost in the minds of employees. New ideas are tested by writing mock releases of the new product or product improvement. Smaller teams, called "two-pizza teams" are preferred for getting things done. Wage structure is skewed towards stock options and modest salaries to provide incentives for improving company performance. Bezos is seen as being a patient long term investor. His management style makes this possible by keeping the buyer in mind and making the retail experience exciting and friendly, new products innovative and exciting, and the process of execution of ideas efficient. The management style and the long term investments help to retain the confidence of investors in the company's future prospects....

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P&G CEO, Bob McDonald, says the company will focus on getting things right in the North American market, before investing further in emerging markets. Price increases in the U.S. market for powdered laundry detergent, automatic dishwashing detergent, oral care, blades and razors, have led to loss of market share and P&G is working to reverse this situation by lowering the prices. After becoming CEO in 2009, McDonald pushed hard to increase sales in emerging markets- during the 70's and 80's P&G had neglected developing countries- and this now makes up 37% of sales, up from 20% in 2000. But margins are smaller in emerging markets, and there was a sense among shareholders that P&G had lost its focus in the largest markets in the U.S. and Europe.

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The resistance to serious government assistance to make a large impact on foreclosures stems from arguments like these. They only tell one side of the story, as the mortgage industry and politicians pushed high cost loans on minorities like Hispanics and Black people who did not understand the risks, and dispensed with even the basic requirements for ability to pay on a sustained basis. Instead pushing them into higher amount loans which raised the chances of aquick default on the loan. See the link to this, a detailed article on Hispanics experience in the WSJ, with a graph that shows that more subprime loans were made to minorities than whites in 2004 and 2005, and especially to Hispanics. The other thing about this is that its a very shortsighted approach and one that will end up costing more money. Its also ending up having effects on the global economy which comes back to affect US exports, and make this a severe prolonged downturn that could last anywhere upto ten years if its not tackled in its most serious dimensions, with this one being crucial. Its crucial because the bank bailouts which are approaching a trillion dollars as the bill mounts after each passing month, and the lack of lending thats crimping businesses and leading to huge job losses of 500,000 a month are directly a result of the inability to fix this problem. Its like trying to find out who started the fire when irresponsible borrowers, speculators, the mortgage industry, the credit rating agencies who signed off on irresponsible securtization, the regulators who fell asleep on the job, and central bankers and treasury secretaries who lauded the innovation and the depth and sophistication of the US financial system ignoring the risks of too much liquidity in markets, all lit the matches that got the fire going. The longer the fire burns and bigger it gets, the harder it becomes to put it out the and more fire fighting resources it will take....

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Unilever sales -after excluding acquisitions, disposals and currency effects- were up 7.8% in the 3rd quarter of 2011. Sales in emerging markets were up 13%, and now provide over half of Unilever's business. Unilever achieved these gains through price increases of 5.8% and volume up by 19%. Unilever faces rising costs for oil, palm oil, petrochemicals and plastics. The increase in commoditiy costs added 2.5 billion euros to costs compared to the prior year. To cope with rising costs Unilever is improving packaging, logistics, sourcing and reducing purchasing costs. Unilever's strategy is to selectively increase prices to keep margins from falling.

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Jean Claude Trichet is one of the last leaders from a generation that helped create the euro currency union and a pathway to closer union of European nations. For four decades he has worked at the upper echelons of European economic policy making. In accepting the Charlemagne prize he stayed true to his idea for closer integration in the European Union. He said- "Confronting the challenges of the future requires strengthening the institutions of economic union." He would like to see a finance ministry for the EU, saying that "in this union of tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow, would it be too bold...to envisage a ministry of finance of the Union?" Such a ministry would exercize oversight over European nations economic policies and exercize veto power over national budgets. In the current crisis in Greece such a ministry could take actions and make decisions applicable to Greece. Trichet's remarks were delivered in Aachen, Germany. At the very same time finance ministry officials from 24 European countries were meeting in Vienna to come up with a solution to the Greece debt crisis. A main stumbling block is disagreement between Germany and others including the ECB, about how to make private-sector creditors share the burden of helping Greece avoid a default. Trichet and the European central bank and other central bankers have rejected Germany's insistence of an extension on the maturities of Greece's bonds, because they fear this would be perceived as a default by financial markets.This in turn would lead to contagion effects spreading to Spain and Italy, and a Europe wide crisis. In direct exchanges between Trichet and French president Sarkozy, Sarkozy has told Trichet he represents the bankers views whereas Sarkozy and Merkel have to take public opinion into account. In fact in past resolutions of financial crises in Latin America this type of extension of maturities for bonds has been applied, as for instance in the Brady Bonds and negotiated settlement arranged by the U.S. for banks, and Latin American and some Asian governments. Search term "brady" and see Landon Thomas's piece Nov. 30, 2010, in the NYT. This becomes necessary when countries such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal are unlikely to ever be able to repay the debt without a renegotiation of the original debt agreemments, spreading the debt over longer maturities, and private creditors taking some losses. By shifting the entire burden on austerity and spending cuts the current agreements leave the EU lurching from crisis to crisis as the underlying situation remains unresolved. It is here that Trichet's laudable vision of European unity runs aground because of the failure to build bridges between the outlook of the financial community and the public opinion of Germany, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and other countries. The governments of creditor countries such as Germany seek a renegotiation for a restructuring of debt. The governments of Greece, Ireland and Portugal understand that severe austerity cuts alone with declining growth can never resolve the situation, and would welcome a restructuring especially because the cuts are deeply unpopular. The renegotiation has to be conducted with the full faith and credibility of the European governments, ECB and the support of the U.S. government, so that financial markets are given a certain reassurance that the situation will be managed to a successful conclusion, and not lead to contagion effects on Spain and Italy. When asked about this Nicholas Brady recently said this required "a unified decision." This would include money set aside for recapitalization of European banks that are affected by such a restructuring. In such a restructuring the German government and other European governments would still come up with taxpayer money for the resolution, yet the shared cost by all parties would create a fair and workable financial arrangement that has the potential for successful resolution to the sovereign debt crisis. This disconnect between the political leaders and the bankers is why observers say the Europeans have not been able to wrap their arms around this problem. ...

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Every day lost in the struggle with coronavirus is a big thing, which is why Itay's most affluent northern region has gone from being well equipped with resources of healthcare to seeing the health system overburdened to the point of disaster. This WSJ report shows why this has a lesson and an early warning for how the U.S. and other countries should design their response. It is also why the White House team that includes President Trump in the U.S. emphasized the plan for just the first 15 Days in the news conference at the Brady Room in the White House on March 16. It is saying the first 15 days are critical, not a day to lose.  It does not matter if you are an advanced economy with state of the art hospitals. Social behaviours must change, old rules rewritten and implemented throughout nations, quickly in days. Here WSJ shows lessons learned by Dr. Cereda at the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania who trained in Milan and was in constant contact with colleagues in Milan and elsewhere. Many of the lessons relate to not overburdening hospitals and health systems and protecting health systems. This means mild to moderate cases are managed from home and not in the hospital, through massive deployment of outreach services and telemedicine. It means therapies can be delivered at home or through mobile clinics. The second major lesson from Italy is to protect healthcare workers and doctors. The entire White House team with Dr Faucci of CDC and Dr Brx, head of Infectious Diseases in the U.S. news conference of president Trump March 16, focused on the goal of protecting healthcare workers, doctors and hospitals, so they remained strong to take on the crisis. The second goal of the White House team is to protect the elderly with medical conditions. To do this only the most serious patients are treated in hospitals the rest for mild to moderate at home.  Studying the conditions in Bergamo and other parts of Lombardy and northern Italy, is helping U.S. medical leaders to prepare for the current nationwide effort, the 15 days plan announced by the White House. The lessons from the Papa Giovanni Hospital in Bergamo are important say U.S. medical leaders, including Dr. Brendan Carr, head of emergency medicine at Mount Sinai Health System in New York.  He says build capacity in hospital beds before we need it. Clear out hospital space and add new hospital beds.  ...

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Consumer issues raised in CCTV's 315 broadcasts named after World Consumer Rights Day. There is new energy in CCTV reporters now that consumer rights are a priority under the new administration of Jinping-Li Keqiang. Companies that have come up for review include food companies McDonald's, Yum Brands, retailer Carrefour, Automobile company VW, and computer/smartphone company Apple. Foreign companies operating in China are now expected to follow the high standards they maintain in their home markets or come up for review.

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A study by the director of the obesity center and professor of global nutrition at the University of north Carolina at Chapel Hill states that based on data collected from 20,000 patients in China over the last 15 years obesity has increased 1.2% a year among men in that time. The study says that more than 25% of the adults in China are overweight or obese and that the number could double in the next 20 years. Its a result mainly of improving living standards which make vegetable oil affordable, and beef and dairy foods more available and affordable. A sedentary lifestyle for many Chinese plays a part as well.

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This WSJ editorial cites remarks by Viktor Orban who says he seeks to build a state on national foundations and the "illiberal ideas" behind states such as Turkey, China, Russia. It cites the way Orban has eroded the constitutional checks and balances in Hungary's democracy. Much of this happened, says WSJ, because of economic mismanagement by centre right and centre left policies in the post Communist transition. Because Orban looks to president Putin for authoritarian version of politics, Western Europe should not see this as simply a version of provincial Europe at the periphery, says the Journal. Western Europe can build a strong world of liberal democracies and do this by economic revival in the eurozone and EU countries. President Obama is in the last part of his second term having failed to effectively promote the world of liberal democracies. It is now upto successors to revive the world of liberal democracies and free societies throughout the world.

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JetBlue airline has hired ad agency Firstborn, to make an experiential advertising effort that uses the comments of JetBlue customers on why they like the airline, and puts this in video clips on its site. By clicking on experience on the JetBlue site or by going to experience.jetblue.com one can see these comments. Experiential marketing is about not interrupting people's activities to draw attention to products. which is what happens in today's saturated advertising medium. Instead letting people who use the product talk about it and letting users themselves click on experience on the JetBlue site.

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The Spanish government said on May 23, 2012 that it will provide 9 billion euros to help Bankia cover capital provisions for bad loan losses. The government took control of Bankia in early May 2012. Bankia was formed by merging 7 troubled cajas savings banks. It has about 10% of Spain's loans and deposits. Bankia has the largest exposure of financial institutions in Spain to real estate loans. Of 37.52 billion euros in loans for real estate, about half or 17.85 billion euros are troubled loans. Spain's approach to the banking crisis from the real estate bubble was to merge failing banks with smaller amounts of government money as aid, and having the new entities raise cash through initial public offerings. For Bankia most of the nonperforming loans were separated and placed in BFA, the parent company. Bankia did an IPO in July 2011 raising 3 billion euros. Since the IPO Bankia has lost half the value in its share price for large losses to investors. Under new capital provisioning rules set by the government for banks to adequately cover nonperforming real estate loans, Bankia needs 7.1 billion euros. An additional 1.9 billion euros is needed for capital requirements for a total of 9 billion euros, which is the amount of the capital injection by the Spanish government. Finance minister Guindos told parliament that the rest of the Spanish banking system can withstand adverse scenarios....

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China announced that it would make its exchange rate flexible, but also emphasized that it would do so gradually. What this means is that China will have a managed floating exchange rate. China followed a managed floating policy between mid 2005 and mid 2008, with a 21% upward valuation during that period for the yuan. During the 2008 crisis upto now the rate was pegged. The yuan was pegged at 6.83 yuan to the dollar. China is now rebalancing its economy so that it is not overly dependent on exports. The idea is to let domestic wages and domestic consumption pick up the slack in the markets of Europe and the USA. Europe is taking up austerity measures, and the mood in the US is shifting towards concern about growing budget and trade deficits. See the groups for "China wages" and "China workers."

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Experiment conducted at the Gujarat Electricity Board by researchers from MIT and Harvard on correcting the flaws in the audit process for compliance with pollution control regulations by heavily polluting plants. The experiment is conducted in the state of Gujarat in northwestern India. The heavy polluters faced a audit process where fees were paid out of a central fund, were told plants could be audited for a scond time for false reporting on pollutants emittted, and faced additional disincentives of cut off of electricity supplies for noncompliance in correct reporting. This type of improvement is relevant for pollution control in China, India, Indonesia and other developing countries with similiar reporting issues and non compliance with pollution laws. Noncompliance and cozy relationships with auditors and regulators is a major problem for implementing pollution laws in these countries.

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How Lehman Brothers CEO underestimated the situation facing his firm and failed to realize the true extent of the economic environment that the country is facing. He did not move fast enough for the speed with things deteriorate in this new environment which is nothing like the environment they faced before. In the end he held out for a better deal when he was negotiating with potential partners till the other side walked away. As a trader who led the firm for 14 years he was used to snap decisions so when he negotiated with Korea Development Bank and things were difficult he grew frustrated according to the Wall Street Journal and threw up his arms and the meeting ended. After the two sides parted subsequent talks faltered. At that August meeting the Korea bank proposed to invest $4 billion to $6 billion into Lehman and on the other side the CEO of Korea Development Bank had once been the head of Lehman Brothers in South Korea. The Journal report says that the Koreans felt their approach was realistic and were prepared to move forward but that Mr. Fuld was holding out for a better deal. The Koreans would have received a large stake in the firm. But not reaching the deal in the negotiation with the Koreans in June and then again in August and not marking down the firm's large holdings of real estate to reflect new conditions, and relying too much on the access to capital from the Fed, may all prove to be the undoing of Lehman because its stock has dropped precipitiously in the last few days losing more than 40% of it value in one day and then continuing down a slippery slope. Mr Fuld has led the company for 14 years and is the decision maker in this company, being called by employees as "the chairman" or "the gorilla". In these 14 years he gained a reputation for driving hard deals and in this case he may have not realized the crtical situation the company faces required a more urgent approach and a willingness to consider different deals some of which may have led to giving up some of the complete independence with which he operated....