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With a mere 1% of GDP invested in public healthcare India remains backward in its commitment to the welfare of the rural poor. Prime minister's Modi's plan is laudable says this BBC report, but the record of implementation is spotty at best at the state level for such plans. The new plan announced in the 2018 Indian Budget is for a health plan covering 500 million Indians with 5 lakh rupees coverage, something never tried before but with a cost of a mere $1.7 billion is something that the country woefully lacked or neglected to tackle.

This plan may be better implemented at the national level, and particularly where the reputation of the governing party and its plans for industrialization are at stake in the coming year's national elections. If accomplished and the Modi government is eager to take on these challenges it would be a significant step to balanced and overall development of the Indian economy.

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Emmerentze and Germano provide this exceptional look with wide ranging interviews at a brand which has failed to make headway in the U.S. market for 2 decades, after being a prominent brand in the 70's and slipping ever since. Adidas share price declined by 38% in 2014, declining to 57 euros, recovering to 70 euros by March 2015. The economic crisis in Russia affected Adidas sales. A major problem area is the U.S. market where Nike has made major progress, and other competitors such as Under Armour and Skechers are rapidly increasing market share. Adidas is now No. 3 behind Under Armour in retail sports apparel and footwear sales, according to Stern Agee and SportsScanInfo. The U.S. operation has been tightly controlled from headquarters in Herzogenaurach, in a rural part of Germany. During CEO Herbert Hainer's leadership since 2001 share price quadrupled but the U.S. operation has languished, because say retail experts the operation does not reflect the culture savvy management style of Nike and other U.S. competitors. U.S. sales are 43% of the global athletic apparel and footwear market, and the global market of $51.6 billion moves in relation to fashion trends set in the U.S. market. CEO Hainer and managers in Germany are seen as very focussed on spreadsheets and analytical approach to sales in over 100 countries. The only design studio outside headquarters in Portland, Oregon, was setup in Brooklyn, N.Y. recently, and the 4th CEO during Hainer's leadership since 2001 is the first to be given some degree of autonomy in making design and marketing decisions. Nike's market share in athletic footwear has increased from 35% in 2005 to 47% in 2014, as Adidas remains stuck at about 10%. The Reebok acquisition for $3.8 billion in 2005 is seen by U.S. Adidas managers as a distraction. Retail store executives visiting Germany say Adidas product cycle from design to product introduction of 18 months was just too long to meet the rapidly changing preferences in the U.S. This is now being cut to 6 months. In recent years Adidas has expanded rapidly in emerging markets but management has failed to grasp the fact that trends in growing markets such as China, India, Brazil and Mexico are set by pop culture trends in the U.S. ...

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President Trump reiterated his threat to place tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods in addition to earlier tariffs on $250 billion in goods.  The problem China faces is that it China imports less, far less than the U.S. does. China has only $10 billion in U.S. goods to place tariffs on. This is after placing tariffs on $110 billion in U.S. goods, mostly agricultural products such as soyabeans in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on the $250 billion of Chinese goods. China could place a ban on imports from Boeing or restrict the access for U.S. companies to the Chinese market. U.S. companies have invested billions of dollars in the China and employ about 2 million Chinese in well paying jobs. Concerns about unemployment would be uppermost to prevent these jobs being affected. Other concern for China is the loss of foreign investment as relations deteriorate. Already supply chains in some products such as clothing and consumer products is shifting other countries in Asia. In automobiles the regional hubs are expected to shift with India as a potential hub for Asia, and Mexico preserving its place as a North American hub following renegotiation of NAFTA. In media the dispute is leading to a shift from Chinese consumers buying Adidas instead of Nike and Huawei smartphones instead of Apple.  For an already slowing economy this hurts China more than the U.S. which is why the U.S. is pushing China to settle with an agreement that the U.S. can trust to bring down China's trade surplus. For the U.S. as most of the loss in exports is in agricultural products the solution has been to provide government aid to farmers, and for Mr. Trump to use the issue to point out that he is fighting for U.S. interests and for fairness. This is why the trade dispute poses more problems for China. Because the surplus is so wildly skewed in China's favor after the inaction of many U.S. presidents just as it was for Japan in the eighties, the situation appears to be headed towards a definite reversal of the lopsided trade surplus enjoyed by China. In the process the U.S. plans to build up the competitive edge it has lost to some degree.  ...

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There is a major contraction in the supply of leased cars to the used car market. This used to be the major source of used cars on dealer's lots. The contraction is so large it will take years to fix, some say 2027. The contraction of leased cars is expected to be 23% from 2024 to 2025 for expiring 3 year leases. Another factor leased cars are a good deal to buy at the end of the lease seeing how sticky used car prices are these days. A 3 year old leased car now costs $28,000 up 45% since 2020, and for new cars it is $48,000 up 25% since 2020 This is significant because a key part of inflation is not only cost of groceries (eggs for example), it is also the cost of cars and housing. For cars used cars are a major part of it as it is basic transportation needed to get to work for a majority of Americans. There are Americans where a car breakdown leads to a loss of a job because it costs too much to repair and young people just don't have the money. Stories in WSJ now point to how DJT won in 2024 largely because of immigration, fentanyl and transgender, and the frustration with high inflation. The challenge is now for action where Mexico, Canada and China cut off fentanyl flows to be able to access the US market. It is also for finding a way to cut housing and car costs. ...

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Pearlstein argues that the US and the Obama administration achieved most of its goals, even though the Europeans took the credit. On regulatory reform, Geithner's regulatory reform proposal he says, could well have been written at the French Finance Ministry, as at the US Treasury. And it gives Obama ammunition to prepare, as private equity, hedge funds, and banks try to water down his proposals for regulatory reform. By having member countries commit to adding $850 billion to the resources at the IMF, and regional development banks to provide help to countries in serious difficulties- and giving instructions that the money can be used not only for debt rollover, bank recapitalization and balance of payments support, but also for stimulus spending, infrastructure investment, trade finance and social support- the Obama adminstration has accomplished a great deal. It has succeeded in putting in place the necessary financial resources to support not only the financial systems of countries in Eastern Europe, Asia and Latin America that need help, but put emphasis on the need for resources to go for helping reduce job losses, create jobs, and provide some forms of income or support to people in these countries. This is a major step as it means the countries of Eastern Europe and other developing countries can deal with their crises in confidence. Mexico is taking loans from the IMF. Dominique Strauss Kahn had begun the policy of shifting IMF's focus to these social goals as significant parts of the recovery process in countries, but he faced the old mindset among the IMF staff, as when its reported staff wanted to increase interest rates in Pakistan by 10% instead of the 3% that was finally agreed to. That would have caused serious difficulty to the people of Pakistan, created chaotic situation and disturbed the social fabric of that country. See the link to this for S. Korea and for Pakistan. And as Gordon Brown put it the old conditionality that lay behind the IMF loans, is phased out. This makes it the new policy at the IMF backed by the G20 mandate. The Washington consensus which prescribed open borders, floating exchange rates and fiscal prudence is now ended. And to support this change the developing countries will have a bigger say in IMF policy and decisions. ...

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The fruits of the failed "no show" Obama administration policies in the Middle East, that allowed reckless intervention by the Putin government of Russia in Syria, and failed ignominously to offer timely full moral and tactical support to the participatory democracy movement in the Middle East. The cost relatively small compared to the cost already incurred by the Bush aministration, and most of the heavy lifting to be done by the young people looking for a better life in the region. And a cost that would make much larger additional cost less needed under future administrations to correct policies of neglect by the Obama administration. A failure in terms of ideals today, and a failure seen in terms of the cost that is borne by the U.S. from a policy of neglect. It comes from failing to grasp the fact that the U.S. is a leader for much of the world, and protects in its hands- in its ideals and its best efforts to live up to these ideals- the aspirations of the vast majority of the people of the world, including hundreds of millions of people in China, India, Brazil, Mexico and the large developing regions of the world....

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Prices can top $100 a barrel, some reasons why this is possible including depleted old field and lower production relative to demand. Important article by King and Chazan because of the experts from Aramco, IEA, and Schlumberger being all pretty much aligned in their view and reasoning that not much is happening in the way of oil exploration and production is happening to meet the extra demand from India, China and deveoping countries. Aramco expert cites older depleted oil fields with a 15 year production plateau, Saddad Al- Husseini estimates that price will go up by $12 for every million barrels a day in additional demand. Nobuo Tanaka the new executive director IEA thinks supply will not keep up with demand because many oilresource rich countries are not bringing in outside investors, and also because he is not sure there will be enough investment, skilled workers and technology to to get the oil out in a timely manner. Note there have been constraints in engineering and manpower shortages. And Andrew Gould CEO of Schlumberger says that 70% of the oil fields are over 30 years old, amd just in the last four years from 2003 the demand has increased by the production thats generated from North Sea and Mexico....

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Relations between Iran and Arab Sunni states Saudi Arabia and UAE are improving especially as Arabs distance themselves from the Bush Administration after faulty inelligence estimates about Iran were corrected by the CIA concluding that Iran wasnot pursuing a nuclear weapons program. The Arab Sunni states arenot altogether happy with the US policy in Iraq and Palestine. Note that that even before this there is a stron economic link between UAE and Iran. About 400,000 Iranian expatriates live in the Emirates and 9000 part Iranian owned firms are registered with the Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry. One look at the map show why Dubai is closest to Iran just a short strip of water dividing the two countries. This bodes well for oil prices as any volatility in the region would only increase pressure on oil prices. Peace in the Gulf region would do a lot to decrease the volatility affecting oil prices. It would also give Iran confidence to address its own role as a supplier by modernizing its oil industry. See the link to Mexico where President Calderon wants to transform Pemex and Mexico's oil industry over 10 years after Petrobras was pushed into reform by President Cardozo in Brazil. Commerce and Industry...

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NIgeria needs $60 billion betwen 2008 to 2012 to fund oil development costs, its share of the funding of joint projects with international oil companies. But the Nigerian state oil company needs to borrow half that amount. And credit markes are tight and will remain so for a long time so where will it find the money to fund shortfalls. Nigerian foreign minister said last week that production was just 1.5 million barrels a day. Observers pegged production at 2 million barrels a day. Violence in the Niger Delta is raising production costs ant CEO of Amni Nigerian oil company says costs are 250 percent higher than offshore counting security costs and kidnapping insurance for employees. Other problems with west african production are the high costs of developing the offshore fields and their rapid depletion rates as international oil companies seek to recoup their costs quickly. So even as new drilling takes place in offshore fields in Angola and Guinea the outlook is not so good. Consultancy John Mckenzie sees production declining by 2013. And PFC Energy estimates sees production peak at 7.1 million barrels a day in 2014 from current 5.8 million barrels. In the past African production has made up for declines in places like Russia and Mexico, now this is less likely. ...

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The constructive contribution made by the G-20 meetings of leaders towards building agreement on economic and other policies for peace and progress in the global economy. The meetings were especially useful for coordinating policy and addressing issues arising in the global economy after the 2008 financial crisis. Here Li Baodong, China's vice minister for international organizations and conferences, international economic affairs, describes the path ahead: IMF reforms implementation, better coordination of macroeconomic policies, pursuing the anti-protectionist and free trade policies with further support to the WTO and ministerial MC9 meeting in Bali in Dec. 2013, and infrastructure financing proposals for developing countries on the agenda at the St Petersburg, Russia, G-2- meeting in Sept. 2013. Baodong says the mechanism called the Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth as part of the G-20 meetings is a major achievement. Each G-20 economy submits it macroeconomic policy plan for a Mutual Assessment Process under this arrangement. The progress from the Bretton Woods financial architecture to the new arrangement- from the G-6 to the G-20 to include developing countries from India to Mexico and Brazil- is another major achievement, not fully recognized by the public, says Baodong. Interestingly Baodong makes particular mention to global rebalancing, rather than pushing what he calls the impossible task of increasing demand to get growth. This is a realization coming to China's economic policymakers under the new Jinping-Keqiang administration after the overly aggressive effort to stimulate demand in the 2009-2011 Stimulus, and the ensuing financial problems in the banking and credit system. It is indicative of the policy shift and its implementation underway in China in 2013-2015....

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Investment by a large private investor in auto supplier Lear Corporation. See the related article on Collins Aikman and the price position at the urging of hedge fund investors that led to closing of Ford's plant in Hermosillo, Mexico, which makes Ford Fusion cars.

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Chnages to Mexico's labor laws passed in Congress and to be signed by president Calderon include companies having to pay only one year of back wages to laidoff workers for lawsuits on unfair dismissals. The law also formalized part-time work and temproary training contracts. The effort is likely to foster greater formalization of the workforce and push fewer workers into the underground economy. About 29% of Mexican workers are in the underground economy, where worker protections and legal benefits are lacking. Also made part of the law an yearly audit of union finances and election by secret ballot for unions. Mexico's large public sectors form a core base for support of the newly elected PRI government.

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Juarez, the city across from El Paso, has done well in the last 10 months with 27,000 jobs added in the maquiladoras. These foreign owned factories continue to attract business interest even with a drug war raging in the background. The reason is that Juarez connects straight to American Interstate highways and this makes it possible to deliver goods in 3-4 weeks in some cases from the time of order compared to 10 weeks for China. And wages can run as low as $4.21 an hour. Companies get incentives in the tax treatment and worker training is supported by the local government.

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This report in the Post reminds readers that Mr. Trump is right on the issue of dairy industry tariffs imposed by Canada. The tariffs are 270% on milk, 245% on cheese and 298% on butter, according to the CBC. These tariffs are designed to protect the dairy industry in Quebec. In Canada the tariffs are referred to as "supply management system."  Canadians in the western provinces are used to paying higher prices on dairy products than prices in the U.S. Canadian prime minister Trudeau has declared that he is "100 percent ready" to defend these tariffs. Mr. Trump has brought this up in his talks with Trudeau.

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Le Monde publishes the speech JD Vance gave at the Munich Security Conference with it says added context and explanation. It is useful because it is easy to make hasty judgements in one direction or another. The focus here is on immigration to EU and to the US, a sore point. Vance does not mention a bigger sore point - the lack of recognition worldwide to the 490,000 American lives lost in the illegal flow of fentanyl into the US without needed action from CMC Canada, Mexico and China. And business as usual carried on by these countries and the European Union, and a failure to act by the US.  JD Vance said- "And of all the pressings—challenges that the nations represented here face, I believe there is nothing more urgent than mass migration. Today, almost one in five people living in this country moved here from abroad. That is, of course, an all-time high. It’s a similar number, by the way, in the United States—also an all-time high. The number of immigrants who entered the EU from non-EU countries doubled between 2021 and 2022 alone. And, of course, it’s gotten much higher since.And we know the situation, it didn’t materialize in a vacuum. It’s the result of a series of conscious decisions made by politicians all over the continent, and others across the world, over the span of a decade." Fact Check- About 14 million of Germany's 84.5 million people are foreign nationals according to Destatis. This is 16.6% of Germany's population. Vance rounds it off to 20% not 17%. In the US there are 47.8 million people who are foreign born or 14.3% of the population in 2023. It increased by 1.6 million from 2022 to 2023, much of it coming from Venezuela and Central American failed states from left parties mismanaging the economy for hyperinflation and from gang violence. In 2022 EU member states welcomed 1.8 million Ukrainian nationals that was only 100,000 in 2021, which is two thirds of the increase. The reason for Vance's doubling. A similar situation happened in the US with Venezuela as a failed state with hyper inflation into 1000 percent inflation leading to migration to other Latin American countries and into the US during the Biden administration. Some of this happened because sanctions made things worse, mismanagement of the economy. A similar migration happened from Syria into the EU member states as a result of the civil war.     ...

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Making some territorial concessions appears to be the only way for peace talks to succeed. For a long time there was insistence on territorial sovereignty of Ukraine by EU and NATO leaders. This appears to have prolonged the war- with needless loss of life on both sides, and costly damage to Ukraine infrastructure, a population that had to face additional winters and hardship in war ravaged areas. NATO's Stoltenberg from Norway, leaders of northern Nordic and Baltic countries, the UK, could take that position without having to face the hardship of the war. NATO had to be re-formed under a new name and new structure  following the collapse of the Soviet Union, with wariness about the possibility of centuries old since 1700 UK and Nordic historical adversarial relationship with Russia casting a shadow over that organization, and embroiling the US in conflicts not of its own choice or of wise leadership. This is the root cause of the Ukraine war. It would have been best to completely restructure NATO and give it a new name without Northern European nations leading it. Principles matter once soviet communism was no longer there NATO formed for its expansionism in 1950's had served it's purpose. Rasmussen from Denmark and Stoltenberg from Norway led the organization for the last decade and half from 2009-2014 and 2014 to 2025, with backing from Obama/Merkel for most of the period of the war in Ukraine. Also most of the period NATO expanded to Russian borders happened under Northern European leaders from Spain, Britain and Nordics (Solana, Robertson, Scheffer, Rasmussen and Stoltenberg) and the organization NATO getting the northern European slant based on historical adversarial relationship of Britain and Russia since 1700- for no other reason than the British wanting to protect its large Empire and commerce in India which in the 18th and 19th century included most of Asia. Under Robertson the UK Defense Secretary much of this transformation into turning NATO into something anti-Russian happened which was primarily because of British and Nordic perceptions of Russia as an adversary. Robertson added the following countries at the Prague Summit in 2002 to NATO- the Baltics, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. Russia faced internal upheaval in those years and Yeltsin in resigned in 1999, Putin was elected in 2000. It is clear that Russia had suffered severe economic hardship in that period and Putin's first goal in 2002 was to stabilize the economy.  It could be said that this turning NATO over to UK and Nordics was a huge mistake considering that Russia was still the largest nuclear power after the US, and British policy was now determining US policy. And Britain's Robertson/NATO should not have involved itself in the Afghanistan war using Article 5, as the US could have handled this alone and limited that engagement. It got US involved in another conflict, conflict with Russia that was to come in Ukraine on the side of the Baltics and Ukraine, without US clearly understanding what the roots of that war was about and implied confrontation with Russia 20 years after the Prague Summit in 2002 under George Bush junior. The incompetence of Bush and Obama/Merkel laid the seeds of the Ukraine war in 2022 following Robertson, Rasmussen, Stoltenberg, small Nordic nations and Britain creating a conflict that did not need to happen, with loss of hundreds of thousands of lives of Russian speaking fraternal peoples of both Russia and Ukraine. The Republican sentiment under DJT of the tragedy of such huge losses of young people, and desire to end this loss of life, can nowhere be seen in bellicose talk in northern European nations, that take the US for granted to fight their wars.  The wisdom of Washington, Lincoln and TR/FDR clearly caution in getting involved in European centuries old animosities. For the US it meant in practical terms that it could no longer carry out the Monroe Doctrine essential for peace and good governance in the western hemisphere as only a Russia desperate to make its views known about NATO would interfere in the western hemisphere against US assertion of the Monroe Doctrine with the US Navy. Instead drug trafficking gangs took over Latin American countries and created a flow of fentanyl and millions of people through migrant traffickers across the US southern border. As America has expressed its concern for loss of Russian and Ukrainian men in the war for the first time under DJT Russia has distanced itself from Venezuela, Mexico and Latin America. The loss of hundreds of thousands of young Americans to fentanyl is a shared tragedy with the loss of hundreds of thousands of young Russians and Ukrainians in the last decade. How reliable are Northern European countries when it comes to protecting the eastern seaboard of the US with the acquisition of Greenland? It is a policy pursued by presidents since the Alaska Acquisition from Russia. By Seward, Teddy Roosevelt, Harry Truman and DJT. Denmark the land where NATO secretary general Rasmussen was from followed by Stoltenberg from Norway  (for 15 of the years of the war in Ukraine 2010-2025) the US efforts to protect its eastern seaboard are rebuffed by both Denmark and Norway, and the US presented in a negative light as an imperialist power in the face of Danish East India Company's  colonial attitude since 1700 clearly imitating the colonial British East India company.  It shows Northern European nations looking out for themselves not for the US, and embroiling the US in their wars at the cost of the entire western hemisphere being destabilized. The population of UK, Denmark and Norway, Baltics is far less than the Mumbai, Shanghai, Sao Paulo , Berlin and Tokyo regions. Should the views of a small population in northern Europe of 2% of the total determine the future of US, Europe, China, India, Brazil, and other parts of the world with 5 billion people the 98%, when issues of war and nuclear conflict, nuclear buildup, the western hemisphere destabilized with drug trafficking gangs running rampant in countries, divide the world in opposing blocs, when the wellbeing of most of the world's people in Asia and Latin America, Africa is at stake by establishing a essential degree of cooperation by all sides. The US under DJT has chosen a wise policy of cooperation over conflict -with China, with Russia, with all the major powers, and with smaller powers. Reading the wisdom contained in the writings of Washington, Lincoln, TR/FDR confirms it is clearly the wise choice. ...

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About 30 million Mexican children ages 4 to 18 years will be taking lessons on television. School has been suspended since March. With 60,000 deaths and the third highest fatality rate after Brazil and the U.S. Mexico's government has chosen to take this step. Television reaches 94% of the country compared to 80% for the internet. Radio lessons will also be broadcast. Here children are shown taking lessons on television.