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Relations between the U.S. and Argentina improve under the new Macri administration. U.S president Obama visits Argentina in March 2016.

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Obama calls for countries to join together for action on the important global issues- nuclear proliferation and disarmament, poverty and hunger, climate change, economic growth, financial crisis- without naming them.

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Fisher and Taub in NYT give a brief history of Venezuelan politics and government since the 1950's to help readers understand today's economic and political crisis under president Maduro. How did a country with huge oil resources end up with depleted cash reserves to the point of creating shortages of basic goods on supermarket shelves, how did inflation reach over 700%, and how did the economy contract by over 10%, by some estimates close to 20%, in 2016? Venezuela's story is a reminder that populist movements do not hold the answer to political or economic problems, as they create corruption of their own as new groups of people try to perpetuate themselves in power, and new economic problems as they try to win favor with their own support base. Also through economic mismanagement worsened by economic changes such as oil prices or some other adverse development in the global economy. Internal divisions means the capacity of the country to respond is weakened. Brazil has shown the problems of corruption with new political groups and the weakening of government finances. Venezuela is the extreme example of how a lot can go wrong over time after the initial response to a new populist group is positive as it was in Venezuela in 1998, even with advantage of rich natural resources. Change that fragments a country and polarizes a country instead of pulling together the country's human talent around a program that all groups agree to support, is a signal of future problems. The rule of law is an essential component not just of democracy, but of economic development and progress of any country. These are the lessons of Venezuela for today. Economic crises in the eighties led to loss of public confidence in the two main political parties which alternated in power since the founding of democracy in 1958. In 1998 a military officer named Chavez won the election on the platform of returning power to the people and reducing corruption. Chavez reforms initially were popular. Popular protests in 2002 led to the military briefly taking power before returning power back to Chavez. This led to Chavez moving further towards consolidating power leading to a polarization of society. The oil company workers who went on strike were fired replaced by Chavez supporters and oil funds were diverted to popular programs. In the process Chavez isolated Venezuela from the world economy, leading to lack of foreign investment, and Venezuela falling behind other countries in Latin America, even though it had large oil resources. To retain control of the streets this report shows Chavez helped organize the colectivos or local supporters organized as vigilante groups, which has led to further polarization. Corruption in the military and with the colectivos has led to power being fragmented between different groups. The oil companies fund reserves were depleted by corruption depriving Venezuela of an essential cushion as oil prices dropped. Chavez died of health problems with Maduro winning the election in April 2013 by 50.6% of the vote. The parliamentary elections led to the opposition parties winning by a landslide in December 2015. The current problems with daily street protests stems from the economic crisis, with inflation as high as 700% and shortages of basic goods, the economy declining by over 10% in 2016. The uncontrolled printing of money has fueled rampant inflation.The efforts by president Maduro to nullify the powers of Congress in an effort to control the country and override Congress, has worsened the discontent with the government.   ...

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Germany has 4 million Muslims and Russia 13 million Muslims. Germany is considering banning the anti-Islamic video in Sept 2012. Russia will ban the video and has warned internet companies not to show the video because of its extremist content.

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Deutsche Bank's auto analyst raises concern that the $24 billion that GM has now may not be enough to weather the coming downturn in the economy and spending. Some additional losses are expected in GMAC's mortgage unit Rescap. And the American Axle and Delphi situation need watching for som additional GM money needed there. A big factor in all this is the declining market. For a long time GM has considered 17 million vehicles a year as how the industry would do in N. America, but sales may be less than 15 million. And if much lower that GM may face more losses and its not clear for how long markets in emerging markets like Brazil and China will continue to show strong gains as the US weakening may spread to emerging markets and also to Europe.

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Signs that the consumer credit boom in Turkey is reaching alarming proportions are evident from the surge in credit card use. Credit card debt has increased by 20% in 2011, after an increase of 23% in 2010. There are an estimated 3.7 million delinquent cardholders and 2.5 million cardholders who only make the monthly payments. The Turkish regulators are now requiring cardholders to payoff at least half of the balances before they can use ATM's for cash. Banks charge interest rates of about 29% and cardholders who are using credit cards for the first time -as more of the Turkish people are joining the middle class during the country's decade of high growth- do not understand the risks. Turkish banks, Garanti, Yapi Kredi, and Isbank, are in the list of top ten card issuers in Europe, according to Nilson Report. Card purchases average $3,500 per year, in a country with per capita income of $12,300. Turkish banks have pushed card use, with Garanti Bank's website giving users cash for frequent use of cards, and asking users to show the card even if they are buying an apple at the grocery store. The volume of personal consumer loans has doubled since 2009, because Turks use the consumer loans to pay off the high interest rate balances on credit card debt. Analysts at ING Group in London who follow Turkish banks say the delinquency rates will be above 9% in 2012. The IMF's Global Financial Stability Report of Sept. 2011 has identified the credit growth to GDP ratio as one of the key factors leading to an economic crisis. This was true for the U.S. before 2008, for Portugal and Ireland before the eurozone crisis. China's credit growth was up 29% in 2009 and Hong Kong's up 30% according to the IMF Report. Turkey and Vietnam also have high credit growth to GDP ratios according to the IMF. Turkey's high capital inflows can quickly reverse in a crisis increasing the risks facing the country....

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Efforts by the government of prime minister Erdogan to keep Turkey's interest rates at the same rate as inflation, with an effective real interest rate of zero. Erdogan strikes out at what he calls the "higher interest rate lobby." Erdogan's party fears a downturn in the Turkish economy could affect the government's referendum on a new constitution. The IMF sees a high credit growth to GDP ratio as a warning light for countries and Turkey is identified as one of the main countries facing this problem.

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Signs that Turkey's economy is growing and consuming beyond its capacity. The current account deficit is now at 8%, and foreign credit is helping finance the boom. General purpose consumer loans are growing rapidly- at 42% in 2010, and at 61% on average from 2005 to 2008- according to Standard Unlu, an Istanbul based investment bank. Banks are known to send text messages to borrowers if they qualify, so that the money can be picked up at the bank branch. Turkey has gone through two boom bust cycles- in 1994 and in 2001. The central bank of Turkey has increased the level of interest free deposits banks must keep at the central bank, a move designed to reduce lending. However Turkey's younger generation of consumers are on a spending binge, and access to personal loans is easy. Signs of an asset bubble are easy to find. A 24 acre plot in Istanbul's city center sold for $33.3 million.

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After 22 months the Brazilian government of President Lula has come up with 4 bills in Congress that willl lay out the basis of ownership of the new oil discovered offshore, called pre-sal because its deep below salt deposits in the Atlantic ocean. The oil in the new fields is made the property of the state, and not that of companies that buy concesssions. In each block half of any oil produced will go to the state. The other half will go to a production sharing agreement between Petrobras and companies that partner with it in proportion to their costs. One bill creates a company Petrosal to finance social spending, infrastructure and other projects. And this is modeled on the Norwegian Oil Fund that has saved oil revenues for the people. Petrobras will also get an injection of the monetary equivalent of 5 billion barrels of oil to strengthen it as the dominant oil company.

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The Russian economy gets an exceptional boost with the behaviour of ruble currency separating from the oil prices. Russia benefits from higher oil prices at the same time as it benefits from a weaker ruble. The ruble has declined 15% since April after more sanctions on Russia. The revenue earned in dollars converts into more rubles for imports and other financing for the Russian economy. At the end of 2017 a barrel of oil brought in 3,835 rubles for Russian sellers, when converted into rubles from U.S. dollars. In October 2018 each barrel brings in 5,262 rubles, an increase of 40%.  Russia deftly managed its emerging market crisis with lower ruble following the crisis in Ukraine by adapting its economy to a lower ruble, lowering imports and using import substitution. Initially Russia split with OPEC and Saudis to produce oil all out, but by 2018 with the Saudi economy hurting and Russia feeling the impact of lower oil prices, an OPEC agreement with Russia has pushed prices higher with production limits. Earlier adaptation by 2016 to the lower ruble, further decline of the ruble in 2018 with sanctions by U.S. for Russian interventions in other countries including the U.S. election meddling, have combined with higher oil prices to strengthen the Russian economy. Russian private and government debt held by foreign investors has fallen since 2016 to 32% in the first quarter, according to Societe Generale. This means Russia is less sensitive to foreign investor exit from the country with political and economic winds changing. Russia's current account surplus increased to $18.3 billion in the first quarter of 2018, up from $14.6 billion in the prior quarter. A weaker ruble has translated into more inflation which reached 5.5% at the end of 2017, above 4% target. Russia's central bank made quarter point increase to 7.5% for the interest rate in September 2017. Overall the management of the emerging market crisis since 2016 as Russia responded to NATO expansion and adopted its own policy is remarkable considering the damage from earlier emerging market crises. Countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and even India are feeling the impact of the current emerging market crisis, each with its own version of the crisis- Argentina with dollar denominated debt, Brazil lacking money in the budget after high pensions, and India with higher energy costs and weaker rupee.   ...