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Is Summers too confident that things will return to the way things were, so that eventually jobs losses will dissipate, and the business cycle will return, so that preventing the economy from becoming bubble dependent for growth is the serious concern. How long will these job losses like the one in March of 663,000 last, WSJ reporter Wessel asks Summers. His response is essentially no one can forecast this. But he thinks these losses will dissipate, because production is running well below capacity, and eventually inventories will fall to the point at which they will need to be replenished. But what is cause for concern is the example he gives. He says next, that in the auto industry sales have normally run at 14 million, now they are down to 9 million. As they return back up to that level or a similiar level he says, and similiarly for other industries with underutilized capacity, the economic cycle will kick in. This depends on what is happening in the market . It is worth asking are there deeper and lasting changes ocurring in the American automobile market that Summers may be missing? See the links for Japan car market, and German car market for information on the changes that ocurred in these highly developed markets. Is a fundamental change ocurring in the American car market which this crisis brings to the forefront, that leads to a long term change to a smaller market closer to what sales are now? Is Summers too sanguine and complacent or is he simply hoping for the best. ...

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To keep prices from taking a nosedive if there is a slowdown, as for example in the Chinese economy, a concentration of resources within 3 or 4 mining companies enable them to slow down development of new deposits to adjust supply with demand. In this case even if China slows, India, Russia and Brazil may still pick up, as they may be less sensitve to the U.S. consumer than China. China is a manufacturing export based economy compared to India and Russia, which are more dependent on internal demand. Iron ore prices have increased by three times since 2003, and China's imports of iron ore have gone up from 29% to half of the world's imports. Prices of all commodities copper, alumina, uranium have shot up. BHP and Rio both based in Melbourne, Australia have absorbed all the medium size companies in the Melbourne mining scene. Australia has traditionally been a leader in this field because of its huge mining resources. Other reasons for consolidation are the more complex technologies needed to develop the remaining deposit finds, which are fewer and fewer and of lesser quality. Another factor is that the resource nationalism in India, Bolivia, Indonesia, Mongolia and other places requires more sophisticated investors. Combining Rio and BHP also means BHP can use the better infrastructure of Rio and invest more productively in future infrastructure rail lines and port development to speed exports to other countries. See the Barta article in the WSJ Link on this on Dec 18, 2007. ...

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In May 2008 the Honda Civic takes the leader position with most sales for a brand passing the Ford F 150 pickup, Honda's Accord and Toyota's Camry and one other car probably the Corolla also passed the F150 in sales, as the sales of the F150 plunged by 33% in May. This according to figures from Autodata, an industry statistics firm. A lot of new things are happening which will change the face of the industry forever. Japanese cars outsold American cars in the American market for the first time with 48% of the market compared to 44% for the US carmakers. And American carmakers now see the changes that are taking place to be permanent. In a sense economics and public perceptions are doing what makes sense in a globalized economy and a global workforce and globally shared aspiratuions for a better life in rising middle classes throoughout the develping world. For Americans to drive around in gas wasting vehicles was riding against the face of scarce energy resources being used in the best possible manner around the world to meet the aspirations of a global workforce of global companies. IBM now has as many or more people working for it in other countries and a huge number in India, how can scarce energy resources be used to meet in the best possible way to meet the aspirations of all of IBM's people, or for that matter the people of any other global company? Its only by Americans shifting to smaller cars and fuel conserving cars that this could happen. ...

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The large 11 point margin for State Supreme Court Justice Janet Protasiewicz, a Democrat, shows the effect of the issues of women's rights to abortion and of democracy are having in the state. She promised to use the new 4-3 majority in the Wisconsin State Supreme Court to nullify Wisconsin's 1849 abortion ban and overturn the state's gerrymandered Republican friendly legislative maps. It also shows the changes in the midwestern states. In Chicago Brandon Johnson came from behind to win the Mayoral election calling for new taxes and a vast program of social programs, in addition to a community involvement effort to fight crime over a candidate that focussed on the crime issue and policing. Happening in the same week these two elections give president Biden  more confidence going into the 2024 campaign that people in the midwestern states understand Mr. Biden's approach of investing in people and infrastructure with higher taxes, and rebuilding American manufacturing and technology, protecting worker rights and incomes. ...

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Passage through Congress of the $1.9 trillion relief bill is expected with a close vote as some Democrats in the House of Representatives oppose the concessions made on the minimum wage and reducing jobless benefits to $300 instead of $400 a week. Senator Manchin, Democrat of West Virginia asked for these concessions in the Senate, saying he would join the Republicans if these concessions were not made. This shows how close the vote is in the Senate which voted 50 to 49  to pass the Biden bill. Overall the bill does much to bring relief to Americans suffering from the effects on income from the coronavirus, and supports local governments. It funds more vaccination sites and more vaccination teams. Unemployment benefits are extended from March 14 to September 6 at $300 a week. About 85% of the population qualifies for a one time cheque of $ 1400. It also increases rent support for struggling tenants and includes $510 million for the homeless. State and local governments can now rehire1.3 million employees using $350 billion in federal aid. ...

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US secretary of state Anthony Blinken meets Indian foreign minister Jaishankar, and prime minister Modi in New Delhi. India and the US are working together on how to make vaccine supplies accessible and affordable in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. To promote the vaccination drive in India the US announced an additional $25 million to the $200 million announced earlier, during Anthony Blinken's visit to New Delhi. Post pandemic economic recovery was also a subject of discussions. Blinken thanked Jaishankar for collaborative discussion on many points, including security in the Indo-Pacific region. He went on to say that "the US welcomes India's emergence as a leading global power." Blinken also said that the future in the 21st century will be written in the Indo-Pacific region.  Blinken thanked Jaishankar for the collaborative discussions on many topics, including trade and economy, and how to promote greater bilateral investments to deepen commercial ties. ...

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U.S. frustration with China as coronavirus toll reaches 300,000 deaths worldwide. President Trump says- "They could have stopped it in China where it came from. But it didn't happen that way. " Worst hit are countries in Asia and Africa with food security threatened. After the coronavirus he says of the trade deal he signed in January- So, I make a great trade deal and now I say this doesn't feel the same to me.The ink was barely dry, and the plague came over. And it doesn't feel the same to me." Under that trade deal the China agreed to buy $250 billion in additional goods and service for 2 years in an effort to correct a huge trade imbalance - built up on the advice of American economic theorists and experts who advised American presidents for three decades that it was of no consequence - in exchange for a roll back of American tariffs in stages of part of the tariffs. 

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Requests, consensus, and social pressure played a bigger role than just strict rules and penalties in controlling the virus in Japan. By contrast in Germany states imposed strict rules and fines, some consensus, a better equipped hospital system, added contact tracing, to limit the spread. More than 100 industries in Japan have drawn up new guidelines for reopening to minimize risks. Prime minister Abe said recently " Now we are going to venture into a new arena. Therefore we need to create a new lifestyle from now on. We need to change our way of thinking." The new social consensus on the best way to behave outdoors and at work is the way Japan is tackling reopening.  The effort is focused on avoiding high risk situations the 3 C's crowded, closed spaces, and close contact, close conversations. Japan started with a fumbled response but gradually the right spirit and social distancing caught on. The universal health care system helped Japan detect cases early, even in the remote rural areas. ...

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Discussion on the need for a new framework in which debt of developing countries can be restructured with relief from private creditors and China. This is particularly needed for countries in Africa. Finance ministers from G-20 countries have come up with a new process for restructuring debt of world's poorest countries. These countries owe billions of dollars to China's state owned lenders and western fund managers who bought dollar denominated bonds of African countries. Zambia is the latest case of a country defaulting on its debt during the pandemic. Zambia missed a $42.5 million interest payment on some of its $3 billion in dollar denominated bonds. Zambia is one of Africa's largest copper producers and is now in default. Debts are now 100% of gross domestic product. Zambia's default follows default on debt of Ecuador and Argentina, which restructured their debts, after a steep sell off of emerging market bonds. Lebanon defaulted in March of this year. ...

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The Bank of Japan started investing in stocks during the financial crisis of 2009. It has increased its investments in Japan's stock market during the pandemic as a way to boost spirits in the stock market to $400 billion as of Sept. 30, 2020.  Of this $56 billion is a gain in the stock market after Japan's stock market gained 60% from a deep low during the early period of the pandemic. In March Governor Haruhiko Kuroda doubled the ceiling for BOJ to $115 billion for purchases of exchange traded funds.

The purpose of this activity is to encourage risk taking in the broader economy, and ensure prices are rising at a small but steady pace. The BOJ now owns 6% of the total value of the Tokyo stock market. The BOJ does not buy individual funds but invests in the market through exchange traded funds. The BOJ purchases were effective in easing uncertainty and promoting confidence as the pandemic surged in Japan and in the rest of the world.

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Years of poor funding of public health departments in the US, Europe, and other countries have left public health departments lacking basics, lacking staff and resources. Here the WSJ shows how this has affected Alabama in the southern US. Alabama has the slowest vaccination program in the US with 10,000 doses given per 100,000 population. Positivity rate is very high at 29.1% for coronavirus, one of the highest for positive coronavirus tests in US in the past month of  Jan. 2021.

A large portion of the population of Alabama lives in rural areas. These rural areas are some of the worst hit in healthcare in the US. Since 2009 7 hospitals have closed in Alabama resulting from poverty of patient populations and population loss. This is part of the general erosion of rural healthcare infrastructure across the US in the last 20 years. A problem that now faces the Biden and future administrations. to tackle the problems of rural US communities.

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Mr. Newsom's win by a large margin in California's Governor recall election suggests a new approach might work for Democrats in pushing back on Republican challenges. This is to focus on the Covid 19 efforts of government and make Mr. Trump the issue to generate enthusiasm among Democrats. US president Biden says the Newsom victory is a result of voters supporting the approach taken by Democrats for response to the pandemic: "strong vaccine requirements, strong steps to reopen schools safely, and strong plans to distribute real medicines." The California governor recall election results are that 64% voted for Mr. Newsom, more than the 62% who first elected him governor, and close to the 63% who voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 US presidential election. Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one in California yet the results showed this new approach might work for Democrats- working at the grassroots level to build support and energize its voter base, and to follow its own action based approach to Covid 19. ...

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Fumio Kishida, former foreign minister who called for strengthening Japanese missile defenses, and reducing income inequality in Japan, was elected party leader of the ruling LDP party. Kishida is a choice of the Japanese parliament LDP in a runoff, after he was tied with Taro Kano in a vote of LDP party members. As leader of the LDP he will succeed Yoshihide Suga as prime minister. Kishida says a major problem facing Japan was the widening income and wealth gap during the pandemic. "If the profits from growth are monopolized  by a few people, the gap will widen even  further. It's not just abut growth, it's about distribution."  Kishida also favors government spending of hundreds of billions of dollars to boost the economy in Japan after the difficulties with the pandemic.This is similar to the approach on the economy, infrastructure investment and income inequality, taken by president Biden in the US, and vice chancellor Scholz in Germany.    ...

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Brexit is now seen as based on some mistaken ideas that were presented to the public without much thought or seriousness. One of these ideas is that Britain would simply be free to sign its own trade deals with other countries. One such deal would be with a 1.3 billion people rapidly expanding economy like India. Yet India - Britain trade is very small today and is vastly overshadowed by EU - India trade relations. In fact the European Union is India's largest trade partner. By removing non tariff barriers and tariffs India's economy would expand by 1.3 % annually adding $25 billion to India's GDP each year, Ifo research shows. The EU would see 0.14% growth in GDP, a gain of 21 billion euros annually. Germany would boost its automotive and machine tools industries, and India its textile and services industries.  Many British companies manufacture in India and are not exporters. This situation is not likely to suddenly change with Britain able to strike its own trade deals. ...

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After a second round of price increases P&G's last price increase of 10% leads to first quarter revenues up 4% on sales volume declines of 3% for the first quarter of 2023. The company making Gillette razors, Charmin toilet paper and Tide detergent for household supplies has shown the persistence of inflation as companies increase prices to pass on the increase in price of raw materials. Some of this money will go to buy back stock- P&G plans to buy back $8 billion of its own stock. Companies such as P&G are countering criticism of price increases by saying they offer premium products or use the term "irresistable superiority" says this report in NYT. This leads to "profit price spiral" and adds to "wage price spiral" effects. A executive board member in eurozone says half of the price increases in EU can be attributed for the last quarter of 2023 to company profits.

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Central banks for the European Union, US and Britain show slight divergence in their approach to inflation. The Bank of England's Bailey increases interest rates in UK to 0.25% from 0.1% a slight increase to signal its direction more than a serious interest rate increase. In the US Fed chairman Powell indicates an intention to make 2-3 rate increases  in 2022 if the conditions require action. In the European Union Ms. Lagarde of the ECB will taper purchases to 20 billion euros a month later in 2022, and keep interest rates at minus -0.5%. The British pound and the euro gained slightly as a result. 

Supply chain issues and energy prices are a big part of the current inflation increases which were described as transitory by Mr. Powell. The persistence of this inflation led to recent moves by the central bank. At some point these pressures would ease leading to a long term policy approach that pushes for a robust economic recovery.

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Media networks express views of their billionaire owners at social media networks such as Elon Musk's X (Twitter) and Fox News in the way the issues facing the country are framed and by the moderators such as Bret Baier and Carlson leaving many major issues such as infrastructure, education, incomes and jobs unaddressed. Musk's X social media network formerly Twitter shows a taped interview of Mr. Trump by Tucker Carlson just when Republican candidates including Mike Pence and Chris Christie, Nikki Haley, were in a televised debate on Fox News network on August 23. Mr. Trump said of Fox News network that the network was not particularly friendly to me, and said he avoided the debate to not be harassed by the other candidates. The 12 million viewers on Fox News compares with impressions on the social media network which had 690,000 likes and 180,000 reposts, fragmenting what the Republican party base would see and offering no real delving into the real economic issues facing the country. ...

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Akio Toyoda of Toyota Motors resisted making a full scale commitment to EV's leading to Toyota falling behind in EV technology, ceding leadership to Chinese, American and German companies. This report in WSJ looks at how this happened. Toyota vehicle sales are declining and VW has overtaken Toyota. Toyoda failed to make a commitment to a date for going all electric and this has led to criticism of his management of the company and seen as resistance to the climate transition to EV's in the automobile industry putting behind the period of fossil fuel driven cars. Toyoda is the grandson of Kiichiro the founder of the company when it was in textiles in the 1920's. He says the the role of CEO is very lonely and very hard, as his early years were spent without the team spirit seen at the top and he was closer to the grassroots. He is now chairman and has given the decisions of the transition to EV's to the new CEO, Mr. Koji Sato.

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This report in the NYT contrasts the 2009 protests in Iran that centred on the capital Tehran and the university with the protests in 2017. The protests in 2009 known as the Green Movement were a political protest against what was seen as the fradulent election of Mr. Ahmadinejad. The protests were from the opposition candidates who thought they had won. This led to the suppression of the movement with harsh action by the government. In 2017 Tehran is quiet. The election of Rouhani as president in 2013 led to a gradual improvement and meeting some of the aspirations of the protesters in Tehran in 2009. This has led to indifference in Tehran to the protests across smaller provincial cities in the rest of the country.  People in Tehran are still concerned about corruption and political conditions. Yet they see the protests from economic conditions in the rest of the country as lacking a clear goal and there is a sense that this could lead to chaos in the country.  ...

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Ruffenach gives an excellent account of how many people describe their expectations and how it actually turned out in retirement, the good and the bad. He cites numerous examples to give as broad based a picture as possible. Health and active life, passions and interests, loss of self esteem in work for some and finding substitute interests, taking risks to try something new and the rewards. More people describe positive experiences in those surveyed. Health is the main concern for 41% in actual retirement, children and other things are all less than 10%. Travel should be planned early as it becomes harder as the years go by and one gets older. It is not as difficult as people think to make new friends in retirement, and this active social life with new friends can play a positive part in spending time. In addition there is the opportunity in retirement to take things slowly and leisurely, and spend time more on oneself and one's own interests.

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A live interview by BBC Hindi with Arvind Kejriwal, chief minister of Delhi. In the interview Kejriwal says there are 55 deaths from the demonentisation by removal of 500 and 1000 rupee notes in India. When questioned about this and proof, Kejriwal says BBC is biased. The effort by the the Modi government to  remove these rupee notes is an effort to get people in the informal economy,  the deals in real estate, and people in other parts of the economy which pay little or no taxes to bring the cash to banks and pay the taxes due. This is intended to increase government revenue for investments in infrastructure and education, healthcare. services. The large scale of the shift has caused difficulties for ordinary people, and the upper classes, and the government is working to work through these problems. In India the black money as it is called is estimated to run to about 1 trillion dollars. It is also the result of corruption and has deprived the economy of needed investments and modernization. ...

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The firing of Tata CEO Cyrus Mistry by Ratan Tata, former chairman of the Tata Group, leads to a prolonged crisis at the companies of the Tata Group. A vote is needed at Tata Motors and Tata Steel for Mistry to be ousted from these companies following a vote to oust him at TCS. The parent company's board of directors have voted to oust Mistry. The expert view is that the crisis will not last much longer as all Tata companies need the Tata name and will eventually fall in line with the wishes of Ratan Tata. Ratan Tata followed J.R.D. Tata, and Jamsetji Tata, both legendary leaders of the company. Though Mr. Mistry's family owns 18% of the company, much of the reputation of the company lies in the Tata name and the work of JRD and Jamsetji, so that the 660,000 employees of India's largest company are likely to see this as a temporary setback in the long term.

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Paul Krugman points out the problems in rural America that need attention. Integrating rural America faced with problems of joblessness and a sense of being ignored are part of the effort to pull the nation together. Krugman points to economic forces that have pushed the other way. Yet it is the role of government to support farming communities and farmers in what was till the 1950's and 1960's a nation that was both rural and urban. With the rise of tech companies in the last 2 decades problems of rural communities were pushed into the background. 

The founders of the U.S. and the Continental Congress that drafted the U.S. Constitution did this had rural communities in mind in what was then in 1790's a largely rural country. Rural states have the same representation as larger more populous urban states under the U.S. Constitution making it impossible to ignore the rural areas and farmers without damaging the public interest.

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Britain will offer a pathway to citizenship to 3 million Chinese in Hong Kong, British Foreign Secretary, Dominic Raab confirmed an earlier statement. This applies to British National Overseas status (BNO) and their dependents upto 3 million. He stated that the new security law to control protests in Hong Kong were a "flagrant" violation of the agreement made with China 23 years ago.  He called it a "clear and serious breach of the joint declaration" of the two countries in 1997. The new arrivals from Hong Kong and their dependents will be given 5 years limited leave to stay and work in the country, at that point they can apply for settled status and after 1 year of settled status they can apply for British citizenship. The Foreign Office expressed alarm at one provision article 38 of the security law that seeks jurisdiction over anyone who criticizes China wherever they are in the world, putting them at risk if they travel to Hong Kong or China. ...

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Why Mark Rutte is unpopular and disliked in most European Union countries but popular at home. The Dutch contribute $2.4 billion to the EU budget but says this report the Dutch have setup tax havens taking about $6.7 billion from the revenue that would otherwise go to the governments of Germany, France, Italy and Spain. This shows that the idea of the thrifty Dutch is only one side of the story. The clever Dutch may be more like it. This time France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and most other EU countries including Poland are critical of the Dutch and countries such as Sweden and Denmark for not showing solidarity with Europe during the pandemic. The real reason for Mark Rutte holding out in not supporting the European Recovery Fund of $500 billion of nonrepayable aid to EU's pandemic hardest hit countries is that after the tough election against the far right in 2017 he faces another challenge from right wing parties in Netherlands opposed to any aid or solidarity.  ...