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Clarence Cammers, 64, one of Paul Ryan's constituents back home in Wisconsin, has a question for Ryan at one of his townhall meetings. Clarence is worried about what would happen to his son Tim, 32, if Medicare cuts went through and his son had to use vouchers for getting health insurance. Ryan's district includes Racine withe high unemployment, and Janesville which was devastated by the closing of the General Motors plant in 2010. Most of the people there are conservative, believe in fiscal responsibility and a balanced budget, but they are also older, working class people. Some of them like Clarence are dependent on their Social Security check to get by from month to month and are not sure they can cope with the kinds of cuts Ryan is proposing. In this story Clarence and Tim discuss the meeting and come to the conclusion that Tim will lose either way- with taxes going up or Tim not getting the retirement that he should be getting. Clarence a life long saver decides he will cut back on his expenses and save $588 from his $1912 monthly social security check for Tim. Tim has severe attention deficit disorder and works for $10 an hour in food prep at a resort....

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Finnish president Niinisto provides a new understanding of Mr. Putin and the thinking that led to the invasion of Ukraine. Mr. Niinisto has an advantage having spoken with Mr. Putin countless times says this report in WSJ, and spoke again to Mr. Putin on May 14 to tell him that Finland was planning to join NATO. Putin simply responded that Russia does not pose a threat and "you made a mistake." He says it was not the Finnish way to not call Putin and tell him directly, and that not doing so would be like sneaking away around the corner. Mr. Niinisto says WSJ, has a rare insight into the thinking that led to the behavior of Mr. Putin in launching the war. Here are some insights from this report by Adam O'Neal of WSJ. On the situation in Ukraine Niinisto says " I would be a lot more worried about Ukrainians than about how Russians feel." Mr. Putin's willingness to see Ukraine's industrial centers, its infrastructure and cities destroyed, turning them into moon craters in the east compares with the relative ease of life in Moscow, St Petersburg and other cities, cushioned by Russian oil and gas exports and financial reserves. As a student of Finland's long and violent history with Russia Mr. Niinisto has some unique insights into Russian thinking. He tells WSJ's Adam O'Neal  that if a Russian is angry, yes, be careful, but if he's calm, be even more careful. The Russian invasion of Finland led to loss of 200,000 lives in 1939-40, and another 250,000 Russian lives in fighting between 1941-1944. Finland has 300,000 men or women in military reserves and men between 18 years and 60 years are called up for military service with the Finnish Constitution requiring every citizen to contribute to national defense. Recently Finland ordered 64 F-35 fighter jets from the US. What led to the invasion of Ukraine by Mr. Putin? Niinisto says that "somehow Mr. Putin has a feeling that Russia was betrayed in the 90's by the West. Over time this thinking continued feeding the negativity says Niinisto and led to the thinking that Russia could be betrayed once more.  Another aspect of Mr. Putin which was covered during the last decade of relations with Ukraine in Lyrarc, was his perception that Ukraine under various leaders before Zelensky was basically led by corrupt leaders including one president he supported but lost power in the last decade. Mr. Putin saw protests in Kviv and Lviv that ousted a president he supported recently as orchestrated from outside. This led to thinking that Ukrainian nationalism did not exist and he believed that Kviv would not be defended and would fall easily within a week or weeks. As his nationalist perceptions and that of a small group that included his partner in office Mr. Medvedev became stronger in the last ten years Mr. Putin made the decision to take the option for invasion in the thinking that the response of the US and Germany would not be to support Ukraine with arms and other aid. The CDU and SPD was perceived as weak in Germany and Scholz not seen as able to cut down oil and gas imports to the EU. Biden was seen as not willing to stop Russia by taking on a difficult conflict because of China allying itself with Russia, considering China's interconnections with the American economy. The timing was seen as good considering that this level of dependence on oil and gas imports of Europe on Russia would never be the case after planned shifts to renewable energy. The Russian economy was cushioned by its $620 billion in reserves and by the world's need for energy even as the shift to renewable was taking place. This window my have induced Mr. Putin to take what appeared to be a rational decision that ignored the common feelings of humanity of risking the destruction of a brotherly people that spoke Russian, prayed in Orthodox churches, and where Russia as a state started in the year 1000. Cambridge historian Brendan Simms in his new book "Europe : The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the present," has shown all European powers susceptible of reasoning and calculation of this type in their wars since 1453 in the struggle for supremacy in Europe up to the present- the Portuguese, the Spanish, the Dutch, the British, the French, the Germans, the Russians, the Danes, the Swedes. This also led to British and French empires in Asia and Africa with subjugation of Asian and African people. The Second World War had created the perception that somehow this had changed after the loss of millions of lives- that was the perception of Merkel a pastor's daughter who had grown up in the former communist state of GDR in East Germany, and of SPD leader Steinmeier who felt strongly about the loss of lives from the Nazi invasion. Merkel and Steinmeier built the relationship of Germany with Russia that has collapsed under Germany's new leader Scholz and Habeck-Baerbock of the Greens party. Merkel and Steinmeier also built the trade relationship with China that also faces collapse with China's support of Russia under Mr. Jinping, and the unexpected shifts in Chinese leadership and policies from that pursued by premier Deng and his successors in 1990-2010 of interconnected economic links with US and EU. Mr. Scholz, the new chancellor of Germany has Brendan Simms book on Europe on his reading list for 2022 as he ponders over the lessons of 2022 and the pandemic. Mr. Biden with long experience in the Senate of the US has a memory and understanding of what happened since World War II, how America got to this point, and what it will have to do to bring back the American spirit to the Free World that America has led for most of the last two hundred years. ...

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The lessons from Italy, the epicenter now of the coronavirus pandemic, are clear- act early and decisively, impose quarantines and lockdown quickly to prevent intermingling. These steps need to be put early, with absolute clarity, and strictly enforced. This report in the NYT shows how decisive action early is the only way to prevent the crisis from becoming a large one that threatens the health system and millions. German states such as Bavaria and others now have a $25,000 euro and some have jail time. Singapore has jail time and fines for violating the stay home quarantine orders which it imposes after contact tracing. Taiwan has similar measures. Enforcement and strict control are part of the tools that have worked in these places and in China, South Korea.  Britain has still to close flights from Iran, Italy, which The Times reports on March 20 are still landing at Heathrow. This is after the U.S. weeks earlier banned flights from China, Iran, Italy, and last week from Europe after EU nations failed to take action early.  ...

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Eugene Daniels Politico interview with Brian Fallon of the Harris campaign. The focus of the Harris campaign is to get the electorate to know more about her and her plans for the economy, across all parts rural and urban of the most contested states. To get across to voters how her plan for the economy stands in contrast to the former president in the belief that once people get to know her economic plan they will support her for a better future for America.  There is also the realization that this campaign is compressed into three months August-September-October. The change from Biden to Harris integrating the campaigns had to seamless, and this has been seamless, an essential prerequisite. Another is that it had to be nonstop in every corner of the nation indifferent to rural and urban, red or blue. Nothing matters more than talking to all parts of the nation, to young and old, Republican and Democrat, urban and rural, men and women, to fight for every single vote, and this is happening in this campaign. The essential prerequisite to do this was to do it as the underdog which is how the Harris campaign is being carried out in these last weeks and days. ...

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The Times takes a good look at Liz Truss, who she is, what are her good points and areas she will need to work on. It says Truss was ignored by Conservatives including Theresa May after  being brought in by Cameron as Environment Secretary in 2014. She comes from a intellectual family with her father a Math professor and her education at Merton College, Oxford University. She also had the opportunity to build on her economics and accounting background at Treasury, and at the Ministry of International Trade where she signed a number of trade deals for Britain.  What has changed her was her decision to learn and develop on her own after being ignored in the Conservative party. She shifted from Remain to becoming an aggressive supporter of Brexit and coming out decisively for Boris Johnson as prime minister.  She is willing to challenge the Treasury and others in the civil service when she feels she needs to. Her challenge says The Times is to develop the skills that are needed to work with others and take the country forward. One advantage she has is that she has confidence in her own experience and education to have strong personalities work in her team. Another quality that helps her is that she is not ideologically a conservative, so that she is willing to try new ideas to get the economy working and move Britain forward. And adding to that she has the depth that Cameron and Johnson lacked with her experience gained in parliament, at Treasury, in the International Trade ministry, and recently as Foreign Secretary. She may well be the underestimated candidate compared to a mostly predictable Sunak. ...

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Under Article 23 of the Basic Law, Hong Kong's constitution stated Hong Kong would pass legislation to stop national security crimes such as treason, secession and espionage. The Basic Law also had a provision to grant universal suffrage. It is important that the universal suffrage or democracy was never granted or made a priority by Hong Kong people during the boom years under the British, as a French commentator for La Croix aptly points out in FR24. He says he watched incredulous as Hong Kongers selfishly pursued money.  The Article 23 also provides for the National Peoples Congress to add laws for national security. The last time that Hong Kong people were faced with the National Peoples Congress passing such laws was in 2003 when half a million came out in protest. This was shelved at that time. It is now law today. Why now? More protests are expected and an election in July would bring more seats in the legislature for the pro-democracy parties, says the WSJ. Another factor is that Hong Kong at one time represented 16% of China's GDP in 1997, today it is down to about 3% in 2019. It is no longer that important to China, even while continual protests from Hong Kong detracted from other vital issues facing China as it shifts away from its trading relationship with the U.S. and as the U.S. imposes strict conditions on trade, investment and technology flows. Under the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act passed by U.S. Congress in 2019 an annual assessment has to be made by the State Department whether "one country, two systems" is operating. This is why Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of State has made his comments that "no reasonable person can assert today that Hong Kong maintains a high degree of autonomy from China." The new assessment would diminish confidence among foreign businesses in the city, in addition to ending its special trading status with the U.S. ...

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The world is too dependent on one semiconductor manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, TSMC. Companies in Taiwan make 65% of the dollar value of the world's chips. How did this happen? It poses a threat to the US and to the world economy. Finally the US is making an effort to correct this. The European Union already has plans to produce 20% of the world's next generation chips in 2030. Intel plans $20 billion investment for 2 chip factories in the US. Only months earlier this report in WSJ says Intel president Bob Swan was giving more contracts to TSMC for next generation chips.  It shows how much the pandemic has changed views on supply chain security. Intel ousted Mr. Swan for missteps in relying too much on TSMC as this dangerous policy became evident during the pandemic. Such was the culture that existed before the pandemic on supply chains, on investment allocation, and related issues. As a single semiconductor factory can cost $20 billion, the Biden administration is getting involved with Congress to rebuild America's semiconductor industry and independent supply chain. TSMC is built on subsidies from Taiwan government. Morris Chang founded TSMC in 1987 after studying at MIT and working 30 years at Texas Instruments. At founding half of the investment for TSMC came from Taiwan government. The US to rebuild will require the government to support the chip industry in many ways. In this sense the US manufacturers who ceded manufacturing to TSMC were shortsighted- AMD, Intel, Qualcomm Apple. They without realizing it built the model on which TSMC would thrive and invest and grow. Take just one example- to meet Apple's first order TSMC spent $9 billion with 6000 people working round the clock to build a factory in 11 months. Yes Apple did not have to worry about chip manufacturing and quality by contracting it out. Yet over the years it was ceding the manufacture of the most important chips in its products to an exclusive supplier. It was also ceding away the technologies that went with it. Americans were told not to care by the best universities and professors, by economic departments and scientific educational institutions for two decades leading to the situating facing America today. Meanwhile Taiwan is supporting its chip industry even further as it relies on the chip industry to provide protection in its struggle to maintain its independence from China. A situation no American manufacturer understands or had planned to create, but is now left to the Biden administration and president Biden to solve. After twenty years of unchecked capital allocation and investments by the leaders of American manufacturing based on an inadequate and incomplete understanding of the role of manufacturing and manufacturing technologies in the life of America since its founding two hundred years ago, president Biden faces the task of restoring confidence in America. And this at the time of a pandemic that has taken hundreds of thousands of lives.      ...

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The Public-Private Investment Program of the U.S. Treasury Department has not had a good start. With most banks passing the U.S.government's stress tests and raising $50 billion in the markets, PPIP which was intended to to help resolve the situation of all the toxic securites siting on the bank's books, has gone the way of all the prior efforts to solve this problem. Simply postponed this time hoping that the housing market recovers. With the Rogoff-Reinhardt study showing that it takes about 6 years or longer before housing recovers from such aserious crisis as this one, it would be 2012, before one sees an improvement. See the link to the Business Week analysis that shows housing markets in the USA having some aspect of normalcy in 2012. Yet even this analysis is using an optimistic scenario, because it assumes Moodys Economy.com estimates of economic growth for GDP of 4-5% in 2011- 2012. This assumes the consumer debt that has reached over 100% of GDP will be reversed quickly in 2010, and the the factory capacity utilization currently at 68% and expected to drop further in 2009- with more automobile manufacturing capacity remaining to be scrapped -will recover quickly in 2010-2011. This is unrealistic considering the combination of factors at work. Here Devin Leonard talks to PIMCO chief Bill Gross, who with Warren Buffett and PIMCO CEO Mohammed El-Erian, are key proponents of the PPIP program. Both El-Erian and Warren Buffett say they conceived independently of such a program, in which toxic securties are taken off bank's books with government help. As PIMCO is one of the largest traders of mortgage bonds in the country and has years of successful experience in dealing with mortgage bonds, the New York Fed under Geithner turned to PIMCO for advice in 2008. By this time PIMCO was under ownership of Allianz, a German insurer, which bought PIMCO for $3.3 billion in 2000, with $233 million and a $40 million retention bonus going to Bill Gross. Bill Gross describes how the program would function. PIMCO puts up $500 million, and Treasury matches this with $500 million. Analysts estimate that this partnership would be able to attract as much as $ 4 billion in low interest financing from Treasury and the Fed. Gross says that some of these securities pay as much as 14% interest, and even with a 70% default rate, this partnership could make $250 million a year on the $5 billion partnership, or a 5% return, with PIMCO making a 25% return on its original investment. This isn't exactly pro bono work as Buffett had originally suggested to Bill Gross in the midst of the crisis. But a more fundamental concern is that no one really knows exactly how much of toxic securties the banks have on their books, even though estimates have been made. If this is closer to $1 trillion, PIMCO's expertise and efforts will simply fall short of dealing with a problem of this size, and the window dressing of a problem of this magnitude could only hurt efforts for the eventual resolution of this problem. If housing does not recover as is expected till 2012 at the earliest, and the economy continues to deteriorate in unemployment and factory utilization, then the toxic securities on the bank's balance sheets may pose a bigger problem that will require serious action....

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This report in BBC on climate change issues in Australia with bushfires and floods and the hottest decade in history, was written four days before the election. It says even with the extreme weather disasters phasing out fossil fuels was a politically toxic issue in Australia and no party wanted to talk about it except the Greens. The election has changed this decisively with the Greens and other smaller parties getting one third of the vote. No party has proposed cutting carbon emissions by over 50%- Labour at 43% and Morrison coalition at 26%. Labour won by taking up climate change as an issue.

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Amazon is tackling the Indian market by addressing the need of rural shoppers in all parts of India- home to nearly 800 million people. Here WSJ shows how this works with a customer in Dhowachal, in the northeastern state of Assam, who had no access to stores except by travelling for hours to the nearest town.  The customer is a teacher who received an Amazon delivery of pairs of jeans, socks, curtains, glasses and other items. Rural shoppers in India spent about $400 billion in 2017. Barclays estimates Amazon had $7 billion in gross merchandise sales volume in India in 2017, about 2% of what it does worldwide. More than 80% of customers in 2018 are from outside India's largest cities.  To do this Amazon has changed its app to work on cheaper smartphones and patchy cellular networks, added hundreds of thousands of Indian language descriptions of products and videos. It has also opened physical Amazon stores to teach people how to order online. Tens of thousands of distributors were added to deliver packages and take cash or digital payment. Amazon is spending $5 billion in India to set up a logistics network and warehouses, including staff and content development for Amazon Prime. In doing this Amazon has learned from China where Alibaba and other online retailers have grown seven fold by reaching rural areas. Amazon could not compete with Alibaba in China. In India Amazon has no strong local competitors like Alibaba. It is learning how to operate in India. The app offer tips on how to order, no email is needed, only a phone number, machine learning translates all descriptions into Hindi. Icons work well. A digital wallet lets customers without bank accounts or cards to pay or get money back. Amazon is investing aggressively using an advertising campaign and discounts to pass Flipkart which WalMart bought for $16 billion in 2018. Amazon is trying new ideas in India's situation where small stores often closet sized sell a limited number of products often going through multiple middlemen resulting in high prices. Amazon is now enlisting these small stores as package depots in its own unique distribution network. The small store gets an 8-10% commission on sales for helping guide shoppers make a purchase. In Amazon's unique "I Have Space" program 20,000 mom and pop stores in remote areas of India offer to take packages and deliver in neighborhoods for a commission. They get a uniform, a bag and a week of training. Many of these store owners know the addresses in their neighborhood having lived there a long time. The entire effort shows Amazon has adapted its delivery effort, logistics and payment systems to Indian conditions in a well planned way. Compare this to the failed effort by Apple in India, with high management turnover and lack of understanding of Indian conditions and pricing, and no real plan to tackle the Indian market.     ...

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Tennis player from Serbia is disqualified for hitting the line umpire with a tennis ball. Djokovic was behind 6-5 to Carren Busta of Spain and lost his serve when this happened. Once before in that match he hit a ball at the stands in frustration. The Organizers of the U.S. Open decided there were clear reasons for him to be disqualified and lose all points he had earned at the U.S. Open. Djokovic had earlier come under criticism for his playing in events where there was no social distancing. Tennis has lost much of the graceful behaviour from the time when players like Althea Gibson, Ken Rosewall and Rod Laver played the game in an earlier era. Too much of the money is focused on prize money, television advertising, star status and number of grand slams won, bringing the game down to a level where the fans enjoying a good game is left behind and focus is all on individual players. The same is true for soccer where so much focus was placed on Barcelona and Messi and the 700 million transfer fee. The message from reality comes from the 7-2 win by Bayern Munich over Barcelona with a traditional approach to the game based on using new players costing far less money, a good dose of common sense and hard work. Coaches at Manchester City and Liverpool, and Real Madrid all attributed their success in the game to hard work and discipline of players, with every player playing for the team and for fans, and not for star status. ...

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Make no mistake president Biden is saying it is America's, and India's turn to reinvent the semiconductor industry with government capital support, and with the zeal and inventive capabilities of the US and India. This interview by Ben Cohen gives a glimpse of how Morris Chang now 92 years sees the founding of Taiwan Semiconductor in 1985 in retrospect in 2024. He talks about his early life in the US as an immigrant from China after 1949 and his work at Texas Instruments learning about the semiconductor industry. In the 1980's Japan was the rising industrial nation in semiconductors. By 1985 Intel which dominated memory chips faced challenges in quality and cost and cheap capital from Japanese capital markets encouraging exports. By 1988 Japan took over the market. What Morris Chang is not telling is that Chang already had the Japanese example in 1985. If Japan could do it on all three fronts quality, cheap capital with government assistance, and ten year effort Chang and Taiwan could do this and accomplished this which it has done. ...

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Michael Gove resigns from the Tory government of Rishi Sunak days after the announcement of UK elections on July 4, 2024. Here he says a greater implosion than gaining about 150 seats  for the Tories party could even blow away his chances in a solid Tory seat. Much has changed in Britain since the days of Brexit which is highly unpopular today with the British public. The Times Tim Shipman looks at the controversial decisions of Gove and how he added credibility to the Leave campaign when he had previously advised Cameron against holding a referendum. Today 58% of British people support joining the European Union. Gove's actions and that of others including Johnson, Cummings and Sunak show Conservatives in a poor light leaving Britain in a precarious position with low growth and little room in finances for the kind of investment Britain needs for its infrastructure, public services and its economy. It is a lesson that sudden ill thought out moves for political advantage by politicians and poor decisions can create chaos and diminish a nation's prospects. ...

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After the Biden years when foreign born employment surged the decrease by 773,000 shown by Trend Macro in foreign born employment in the WSJ is an adjustment from the effects of open border policies. This also prevents downward pressure on wages for American workers in construction, hospitality and retail- the story of the last 20 years. This is similar to what would have been seen in the Eisenhower years after Operation Wetback led by Gen. Swing and AG Brownell in 1954. Just as by 1956 the foreign born employment declined after years of uninhibited growth and open borders in the years of World War II. Note that Mexico's agribusiness owners were against open borders in that period and the Mexican government was also against open borders and the loss of labor from Mexico needed in agribusiness. Today the situation is somewhat different but in the sense of an adjustment it may be very similar. Just as in 1956 Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956 had a mandate for making this adjustment DJT has won a mandate for a similar adjustment in 2024. ...

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Consumer spending not driving big earnings reports it is the cost cutting and job cuts in September 2025 yet this means companies can reduce prices from the exorbitant price increases in recent years. The president has called for restraint in pricing so that inflation can be brought under control, something the Fed under Powell is also acting on.

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George Papandreou's approach and demeanor has helped rather than hindered finding solutions to the debt crisis in Greece. He has emphasized keeping a modest profile and doing the things that matter most- getting straight down to what Greece needs to do to address its problems when talking to European leaders, putting economic experts like Stiglitz in his inner circle so that he is well aware of how others see Greece's problems, setting a role model for his ministers in cutting down on expensive spending habits. Taking out the BMW and driving a Prius may be just for appearance, but actions like these combined with quiet but decisive steps, are needed to set the right tone as Greece shifts to austerity measures and reduces state spending.

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After three years o rock star popularity prime minister Trudeau's popularity has dropped so far that his party could lose the October general elections. This is after Canada's Attorney General resisted efforts by Trudeau and senior officials to let a Canadian company SNC-Lavalin avoid trial. Since then recording of a iphone call taken by the Attorney General with a top government official Mr. Wernick has created an uproar on this matter. Ms. Wilson-Raybould, the Attorney General saying in that conversation that this was going to look like nothing but political interference by the prime minister and everybody else involved in this. Nearly two thirds of Canadians now disapprove of the job Trudeau is doing according to a poll by Ipsos Public Affairs and Agnus Reid Institute.  Rock star popularity can fade quickly. In Brazil Ignacio Da Silva was popular till a crisis with state finances and the Car Wash scandal involving illegal payments led to the loss of his Workers Party in the recent elections. Mr. Trudeau had won support by supporting clean governance and giving women a say in governing. Ms. Raybould was transferred to a lower position after her unwillingness to follow government officials on the CNC Lavalin issue. Now the Liberals Party of Trudeau is trailing the rival Conservatives and Ms. Raybauld is a highly respected figure in Canada. ...

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This report in the WSJ from Singapore says Chinese authorites are asking local governments to prepare for the potential downfall of housing developer Evergrande which was built on ever growing debt. This was described as getting ready for a possible storm in the event there is a disorderly collapse. Beijing is unwilling to bail out the developer. For years the Chinese government has discouraged speculative investment in housing saying "housing is for living not for speculation." This had little effect on housing developers and housing prices in China making housing smaller and smaller in size and beyond the reach of average households.

To get some idea of the magnitude of Evergrande's expansion it has 800 projects in progress spread over 200 cities in China. It is unable to complete many of these projects, now that it is unable to pay contractors and suppliers.

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Japan's acute shortage of labor has even spread to the government sector says this report in DW.com. Japan's aging population means a growing need for immigrants from Vietnam and other countries. Nursing, elderly care had shortages which have spread to construction and delivery business, taxis, forestry companies and train operators. Many jobs remain unfilled. It is a situation the US may also experience in a few years as it is feeling the effects of shortages of workers in industries such as hospitality. NK Logisitics Research estimate is that 34% of goods will remain undelivered by 2030 because of lack of transport workers, that is 940 million tons of goods undelivered every year. Already taxi drivers have shrunk by 40% from the peak in 2009. Japan's immigration policy planned for an influx of 345,000 skilled workers over 5 years in 2019 but this came a bit late as the pandemic delayed the influx. Now it has a new urgency. Even with the influx of new immigrants Germany has 1.6 million jobs unfilled according to DW.com citing research in an accompanying article on German workers in today's Lyrarc.com. The US needs an organized program of immigration to attract foreign workers yet the influx from Venezuela of mostly middle class educated people into the US through  events no one had foreseen or expected may years from now be seen as meeting the needs of sectors in the American economy that needs good workers, in the same way that Japan and Germany see their economies and worker shortages. ...

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Canadian steel and lumber industries get government aid, as talks to end US tariffs are halted over an ad on Reagan misrepresenting him on tariffs by Ontario state.  Canada's steel and lumber industries will get the aid in the form of railway costs cut in half with rail subsidies, and tariffs on US steel imports into Canada to reduce domestic steel costs for other industries. Stellantis shifts car production for a new Jeep from suburban Toronto to Illinois, GM cut a shift at a pickup plant and closed a electric van plant in Ontario. Not all imports to the US from Canada face tariffs. Other products enter the US from Canada under a free trade agreement USMCA that went into effect July 1 2020. Canada is also shifting policy under Carney's Liberals on climate change, as it seeks to reorient its economy to export oil to China and India- a new pipeline is now approved for oil and gas to be shipped across the country from Alberta. Since it's independence with Dominion status in 1867 Canada's economy has struggled with the idea of building a economy separate from the US so that trade between the northeastern Canada and Northeastern US which is next to each other is foregone for trade with distant provinces in the western states such as Alberta and British Columbia. In Brazil Lula's Worker's Party is also slowing efforts on climate change for the economy as it approves oil and gas projects in the Amazon, at the same time as it holds COP30 at Belem port in the Amazon. Even Biden had shown flexibility on the economy to support cost of living measures that are in conflict with climate change action. In DJT's second term climate change action has taken a back seat to cost of living concerns when a large majority of people are living paycheck to paycheck. ...

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For two decades young computer specialists in their 30's have tried to say the right things to the American people to gain approval- with AI this is where it all ends. Watching Murthi and Altman on Stern's interview in WSJ one senses a lack of awareness that this is too big a technology to be handled by a few computerized work  specialists. Murthi says the right things with a faltering conviction, Altman lacks conviction, yet both cannot take on the responsibilities for AI on their shoulders. The chief technology officer of OpenAI takes over role of Interim CEO with the departure of Sam Altman. She graduated from the Thayer School of Engineering at Dartmouth. She worked at Tesla before joining OpenAI. Murthi was in charge of Operations, managing the teams that delivered ChatGPT product in 2022, and handling the relationship with Microsoft which invested $13 billion for a 49% stake in OpenAI.

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Zeit Online shows in this article the continued efforts of the Russian government of president Putin to discredit Chancellor Merkel, following efforts to do this for Hillary Clinton in the U.S. presidential election.  During the Ukraine crisis and the settlement accords of 2014 Germany was seen as a partner by Russia, following sanctions, and renewal of these sanctions Russia no longer sees Germany as a partner. This report shows Russian efforts to discredit chancellor Merkel and the use of RT German channel, WikiLeaks reports of Chancellor Merkel and the TTIP agreement, for the same purpose. The refugee crisis following what is happening in Syria with Russian involvement, terrorism, financial crisis aftermath from 2008, are being used  says Zeit Online to support a movement for "order" as the state ideology now put forward from the Russian government. This could be an early indicator for the 2017 German federal elections, says Zeit Online. Merkel has said that she supports continuation of western sanctions on Russia. It is hard to see what Russia has gained in improving its economy and the standard of living of the people from this type of political action. Putin was able to achieve economic goals during 2005-2010 using good Germany- Russian relations as shown in LyrArc. This was the earlier period of Putin's terms in office, with a broad group of advisors, including finance minister Kudrin, who set forward a prudent economic course for Russia including foreign investment. The world and Russia are poorer from the departure from this earlier set of policies which would have enhanced Russia's economic growth. Kudrin was fired in September 2011, and the economic course has gradually drifted away from what is most prudent for the Russian economy and growth, and for the global economy. Nationalism was part of an earlier period before 1950, that led to frequent wars and economic catastrophes. A new course has been set since then, especially by American presidents Truman and Eisenhower, and people in India, China, the developing world, in Europe and in the U.S., would see little to gain from the politics of that earlier period in world relations.  ...

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NYT columnist David Brooks says Biden will be judged in the long run by what he has done to bring the two parts of America together that have drifted apart -one educated, affluent, city based and the other less educated, poorer, living in smaller towns and rural areas. One from the professional classes, and college educated that benefited from the tech boom, the other from working classes that felt the brunt of the shift of jobs to China. Biden is old enough to remember his emotional mentor Franklin Delano Roosevelt who faced a similar split America with farmers in small towns and workers who lost jobs in the Depression on one side and the smaller affluent classes of professional workers, small business owners in the earlier tech boom of the 1920's. Biden's father experienced unemployment and had experiences as a blue collar worker in Pennsylvania after business failures. It is an experience that has shaped Biden's views on America and the need to bring back hope after the pandemic that followed decades of neglect of working class Americans.   ...

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Mr. Trump gained much confidence in his success playing the star role in Mark Burnett produced show "The Apprentice." He did this from 2004 to 2015. In 2011 he gained more experience on a political show on Fox news by doing a segment on "Fox and Friends." Much of his ability to talk to large crowds comes from this period. His earnings amounted to $427 million, about half a billion dollars. His real estate business was not one of his strengths as he took too  many risks and operating in a volatile market environment in luxury hotels produced large losses. Yet he gained a keen sense of what was popular in the public imagination and how successive administrations of Democrats and Republicans from Clinton to Obama and Bush had missed the devastated American manufacturing from imports and shift of manufacturing to China. This had affected small towns and communities across the American landscape and the success on television gave Mr. Trump the confidence to champion their cause. By 2016 this had gone so far as to enable Mr. Trump to rewrite the focus of the Republican party to take up this cause shifting the party from deficit cutting to spending on infrastructure to rebuild America.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Drugs affecting Montevideo capital of the small country of 3.3 million people in the Rio de la Plata estuary in southern Uruguay. Container traffic has increased by 62% since 2019 Le Monde reports, coupled with Bolivia becoming a new area for drugs, has disturbed the relative tranquillity of this region near Argentina that existed for most of the 20th century. The dire need for a comprehensive solution. Cali, Columbia is now the place for the Biodiversity Climate Change COP29, and this shows how the problem keeps shifting from country to country- that it is beyond the scope of one party, and requires an all party solution in the US, 100% bipartisan, as Mexico was also a place of relative tranquillity for most of the 20th century. The Biden Lankford legislation was a huge path making move with Republican Lankford and Biden-Harris together on one page on the issue. Harris has promised she will get this legislation to her desk again and sign it into law.    ...