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Oil prices and the US war with Iran -Straits of Hormuz how much of it remains open, European supplies, and drop in production in Gulf region, how these risks are managed will have an impact on inflation. Inflation could end up at 2.9% instead of 2% says Greg Ip. Gep Ip does not take into acocunt new flexible oil policy under which India gets a waiver to buy oil supplies from Russia, China sources more of its supplies from Russia to make up for the supplies lost from the Middle East. Russia steps in for a temporary period to keep oil prices lower. US ramps up Venezuelan and its own oil production to meet the needs of other countries such as Japan and S. Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Europe. Conservation measures are enacted to reduce oil use for the same level of GDP as taken in Japan and Germany.

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A new bipartisan plan on comprehensive immigration reform with support from Senators Graham, McCain, Schumer, sets forth principles for legislation. This includes Democratic requirements for a pathway to citizenship for 11 million illegal immigrants and Republican requirements for stronger enforcement. A separate bill sponsored by Senator Orrin Hatch would expand the H1-B program for skilled immigrants and increase the number of green cards. Senator McCain said on a television news show: "We can't go on forever with 11 million people living in this country in the shadows in an illegal status."

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With inflation up, cost of living increase, the $15 per hour wage in high cost of living states such as California and New York does not go very far in tackling cost of living in 2026. Astoundingly 20 states many in the SOuth still follow the $7.25 per hour federal minimum wage that has not changed since 2009. Axios shows the minimum wage by state. In Michigan workers in youth age earn 85% of the minimum wage of $12.80 and hour. As workers lost leverage with the decline of trade unions since the 1990's administrations of Clinton, Bush, Obama, the situation is a difficult one for lower wage workers in many states. The lower wages in retail and hospitality industries also creates downward pressure on all wages which have not kept up till recently in auto and other manufacturing industries. Outshoring increased pressures over the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations and as Democrats failed to do much about outshoring, it took a Republican DJT and Democrat Biden who followed to reverse the trend and create a push for higher wages. This also has failed as inflation surged during 2022-2023 and outshoring created new problems in sourcing parts from overseas in autos and other industries. The middle class is also not much better off and engineers making $90,000 a year are also living from paycheck to paycheck, with less access to housing that has gone up in price and become less affordable. This cost of living surge and the open borders migration pressure on public services led to DJT's reelection in 2025. ...

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Lower volatility in oil prices as a result of a new stream of shale oil supplies at competitive prices is good for oil producers and for consumers. This report in the WSJ shows that volatility and swings in oil prices have gone down with the ability of shale producers to respond to price signals or geopolitical situations and increase supplies. Shale producers can increase supplies in months compared to the years it would take for oil producers in offshore drilling. The new technologies in shale rigs have tripled production since 2011 for the same number of rigs operating in the U.S. Permian Basin from West Texas to New Mexico. The core producers can now supply and be profitable at $40 a barrel.  Supply cuts from OPEC and Russia as currently the policy of both countries mean inventories do not rise too high. And geopolitical problems such as Yemeni attacks on Saudi oil facilities, the reinstated sanctions on Iran by the Trump administration that reduce oil supplies, Venezuela's problems, can be met by increased supplies from the U.S. shale industry in a short time to prevent inventories from dropping too much.      ...

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Philip Rucker of the WP provides this exceptional account of people on the Staten Island Ferry in New York. Construction workers who like Tump's toughness to tackle terrorism, jobs, and other issues. Others who sees Trump's name on properties all over Manhattan, and think he will bring prosperity. And the female worker at a food pantry who says she sees too many immigrants and looks to Trump to fix this. Staten Island is one of New York's boroughs with a population of 500,000 mostly white people that is not connected to city by subway, is heavily Republican, with new immigrants creating community tensions.

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BJP Modi election win in West Bengal and upset by TVK party in Tamilnadu states of India are a result of existing state governments not meeting the aspirations of young people in India for jobs, lack of progress in industrialization and lack of investment in infrastructure. These are the pressing priorities in India. Whoever can deliver on modernization and industrialization, jobs and infrastructure to meet the aspirations of the Indian people is likely to prevail. This is also no different than the process underway in the US and Europe for reindustrialization and remodernization, updating infrastructure built in the 19th century, jobs and incomes. The BJP party of prime minister Modi has set the bar high for modernization of the scale of China and Japan for India, and to even surpass them.  It is definitely doable, particularly now that India has built trade links for import of new technologies with the US and the EU, and when it is already an economy the size of Germany or Japan. Most of the Opposition parties cannot believe this is possible, and most of the media that covers India has the same views. As a result the titles and the discussion in the media are like that of 15 years back when India was led by parties that lacked the will and drive for industrialization and modernization, corruption and mismanagement dissipated resources, could not create the master plan and execution needed,  and lacked the leaders at the ministerial level to accomplish this to deliver on every promise. In fact the elections of the last 2 years have created a new northeastern India - changed the map completely with the growth in a region half the size of the European Union of 300 million people that is able to grow at 20% a year for 10 years in Bihar, West Bengal, and Orissa, Assam regions, where the mighty Ganges and the Brahmaputra rivers flow into the seas from the Himalayas. There is that much potential and it means India itself can grow at rates of 10% once all the conditions are right in a few years to 2047 for Vikshit Bharat, Modernized India. The world economy can also grow with such a vibrant dynamic India. ...

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Congestion pricing has cut vehicles in central Manhattan (NY) district by 11% in 2025. One benefit it has made finding parking space easier. Peopel avoid taking the car if they can. Fee is $9 below 60th Street. It means safer quieter streets, easier walks, less traffic, and revenue for public transportation projects. 27 million fewer car trips say NY authorites were made compared to before the pricing was introduced. Traffic moves at speeds faster by about 4-5%, yet in the tunnels and bridges in NYC the morning commute traffic moves from 15% to 30% faster so it eases up a lot of traffic movement.  $550 million from revenue generated from the pricing can now be invested in the rail and subway transit with additional investments to upgrade it to make life easier for transit riders. This is improving quality of life for New Yorkers not just in the city district but in the outlying areas of NY state and NJ where 73,000 fewer cars leave every day for the commute into NY City. ...

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Average refund was $3642 for 100 million households in the US, above the $3116 in 2024 tax year by 10 percent. The IRS had sent out $241 billion by April 15, 2026, 14% higher than the $211 billion by April 15 2025. For people in the low wage restaurant industry it makes a big difference. One couple, a chef and a waitress took the no tax on tips and the car loan deductions from the "Big Beautiful Bill" of DJT, and instead of owing $12,000 as in 2024 got a tax refund of $26,000 for 2025 tax year. This family an immigrant from Spain says- “They’re not able to pay us a livable wage. ... If we were only taxed on our wage, not tips, that makes so much more sense for the cost of living here in New York.” 23 million households took the overtime tax deduction. Seniors qualifying got a $6000 deduction to get an additional $1320 in refunds.

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Michael Gerson of the Washington Post reflects on billionaire property developer Donald Trump's campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. He says Trump's temperament could make or break his campaign, citing the disparaging remarks made by Trump when Megyn Kelly brought up the issue of denigrating women to Trump in a presidential debate. Roger Ailes, head of Fox News, and Rupert Murdoch head of the parent company, refused to disqualify Kelly from the seventh debate on Jan. 28, 2016, as Trump had insisted on for his participation. Gerson cites a little incident at a Pensacola, Florida Trump rally, with a microphone malfunctioning Trump uses strong language, according to Gerson. He compares this with a similar situation when he was with George Bush in the family theater practicing his first address to Congress, where he apologized to a teleprompter assisting him for being blunt and walking out. Gerson says it is time to take a deep breath and reflect on where we are today after many weeks of a campaign where the public discourse has deteriorated in unimaginable ways....

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A new foreign investment law passed by the Chinese People's Congress is designed to address concerns of western companies facing problems operating in China. This includes unequal market access, forced technology transfers, unfair treatment in public procurement. It was passed in only 3 months after the first draft was debated showing the importance Beijing places on the bill. Its a step designed to help in the trade talks with the U.S. about leveling the playing field. China amends its intellectual property law and introduces a punitive damages "mechanism" so that infringements are fairly dealt with. The new Chinese law replaces three foreign capital laws passed between 1979 and 1990, and is a unified legal standard for foreign investment in China. It eliminates the requirement for foreign companies to transfer proprietary technology to Chinese joint venture partners and protects against "illegal government interference." The European Union Chamber of Commerce says Article 40 still allows for"political issues to influence investor-state relations." Experts say this is a small step in the overall effort to level the playing field. ...

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Neil Irwin of the NYT provides some positive news on U.S. housing. Access to housing at affordable prices is improving as more home are built at the lower end. In July home buyers bought single family houses at the annual rate of 654,000, highest since 2007, according to government reports. This is an increase of 31% over 2015. Builders are building new houses at the rate of one million homes a year every month since April 2015. Census Bureau report shows median sale price at 294,600 for new homes in July down from $310,500, largely because more homes are being supplied which is good for first time buyers. And home price increases are moderate, about 5% a year for the last 2 years, based on S&P/Case Shiller home price index composite of 20 cities. The home ownership rate is now at 62.9%, and though this is down from 69% in 2016, this is close to the 63-64% that prevailed during the period from 1965 to the eighties.  It could move higher as the economy improves and supply at the lower end increases further, but other factors are present such as delaying buying a house as student debt has soared, or not buying at all because of lack of affordable prices. Investment in housing is likely to increase- at 3.8% of GDP it is still below the 4.6% average since 1947.   ...

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More than half the calories Americans eat is from ultra processed foods- it makes RFK Jr. admonition "Eat Real Food" a Big Deal. It is all about eating whole foods and avoiding packaged foods and sweetened foods. It says NO to more than 10% of daily calories from added sugars. It says whole milk and yogurt is good for you.

“My message is clear,” Kennedy told a White House press briefing. “Eat real food.” The new Dietary Guidelines take out the pyramid used for 30 years and make the message clear and outright plain- avoid artificial foods, packaged foods, added sugars, ultra processed foods altogether. A plate now replaces the pyramid and shows a carton of whole milk at the top, a block of cheese, a steak., fruits and vegetables, whole grains.

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Tim Berners Lee, inventor of the world wide web says on its 28th anniversary that the fake news development is dangerous and needs to be tackled to prevent serious damage. He says Google and Facebook have responsibility to see to it that misinformation is not spread. He says the algorithms used by the social media sites need to be revealed so that the public knows how the information is selected. The revenue for these sites is based on clicks, and so he says as people click on information, "fake news" that is surprising, shocking or made so that it has appeal can generate more attention and spread like a wild fire. 

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People must “find the strength to ensure that right triumphs over wrong”, we should all “remember the past and learn from its lessons”. Charles is speaking from Westminster Abbey, historic center of the British people and place of pilgrimage.  He says of the values treasured by all great faiths, “resilience in the face of adversity; peace through forgiveness; simply getting to know our neighbours and, by showing respect to one another, creating new friendships”. These then are the things that are important through all time. “Pilgrimage is a word less used today, but it has particular significance for our modern world, and especially at Christmas. It is about journeying forward, into the future, while also journeying back to remember the past and learn from its lessons.” “In times of uncertainty, these ways of living are treasured by all the great faiths and provide us with deep wells of hope: of resilience in the face of adversity; peace through forgiveness; simply getting to know our neighbours and, by showing respect to one another, creating new friendships.” “As our world seems to spin ever faster, our journeying may pause, to quieten our minds — in TS Eliot’s words, ‘At the still point of the turning world’ — and allow our souls to renew.” ...

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Overhaul of consumer finance.