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Gregory Zuckerman report in the WSJ on Jan 15, 2008 commented on the bets against housing that netted $3 billion to $5 billion for a financial firm that bet against subprime mortgages at the right time. It also commented on Alan Greenspan who joined the firm as an adviser after engineering a period of low interest rates that created conditions in the housing market for such speculative boom bust behaviour. The 2009 financial crisis marked a period of 10-15 years when the US lost its competitive advantage against China as a result of such speculation and poor leadership at the central bank. And leadership from the Reagan presidency in 1980 through 2009 that defunded infrastructure, manufacturing and public goods services in favor of deregulation and financial firms.

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The IMF loans of $18 billion approved in March 2014 are conditional on structural reforms in Ukraine which will be painful. This includes a 50% increase in the price of natural gas on May 1, tax increases and spending cuts, flexible exchange rates. About 10% of the state officals will be cut and decreases in pensions for judges. Higher taxes will be placed on alcohol and tobacco products. Prime minister Yatsenuyk, says without the reforms and IMF-EU loans the economy woud contract by 10%, with the package GDP would decline by 3%. Ukraine's 10 year dollar denominated government bonds had a yield of 8.94%. Years of large state subsidies for natural gas, mismanagement and corruption have left Ukraine's finances in bad shape. Ukraine now faces austerity measures similiar to that in other Eastern European countries and Greece, leading to continued political unrest.

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The most accurate study so far of what age groups get affected by coronavirus comes from the Office of National Statistics in Britain, showing that children are as likely to get infected as adults. Estimates in modeling created jointly by Public Health England and the Cambridge University show 18% of children in the data from 5  to 14 years age are infected by the virus in England, compared to 18% in the adults over 45 years age.  Across all age groups the modeling data found that there is no difference between age categories for infection by the coronavirus.

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Efforts to increase wages by the Abe administration in Japan. Combined 10 of 12 major auto worker unions in Japan said companies had met their full demands in 2013. Toyota offered workers a bonus equal to 6 months of base pay- a 15% increase over 2012 bonus. This reverses a negative trend of declining wages in Japan- average annual compensation declined for part and full time employees, including bonuses, for 8 of 10 years 2002-2011, reaching 4.09 million yen or $42,800 per worker in 2011, according to the National Tax Agency.

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Samsung's plan to open "Experience Shop," in 1400 Best Buy stores, which sent Best Buy's share up 16% in April 2013. Samsung gains much from this plan, as it allows Samsung to have a friendly retail presence in-store that it badly lacked upto now.

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The new president of India Droupadi Murmu is from the state of Odisha, formerly called Orissa. She is from a tribal community in the state and brings a new face for development through "sab ka vikas sab ke sath" new India's slogan today of development for all Indians through their own efforts, as it brings to the forefront the tribal communities all over India. The tribal communities in India have a population of 106 million or about 9% of India's population. In Orissa percentage of tribal is over 25%, in most of the northeast it is at least 25%, and in borders areas with China Arunachal 70%, Sikkim 34%, Jammu & Kashmir 12%. In key states of Madhya Pradesh 20%, Gujarat 25%, Rajasthan 13%. The strategic nature of the decision for the unity of India can be seen on how the tribal communities are critical parts of the northeast, the border areas,  and even of the central, eastern and western regions of India which most people are not aware of. Bringing in the tribal communities through respected leaders is part of the unfinished work of Mohandas Gandhi in getting the delivery of services to the last man in the line, and the tribal communities are a forgotten part of this.   ...

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According to the General Accountability Office inquiry, 28 drug products had price increases over 100% in 2000, in 2008 71 drug products had such large increases. Medicines like Adderall for attention deficit disorder, Inderal for chest pain, Sumycin for infections were in the list of 416 brand name drug products where makers or distributors raised prices at least once by 100% or more for period 2000-2008. As large pharmaceutical companies sold their marginally profitable drug products or small selling products to smaller companies, these smaller companies would immediately increase prices to recover the money they paid to the large pharmaceutical companies. 26 of the brand name products saw prices raised 10 fold. A third of the drugs with large price increases treat depression and disorders of the central nervous system.

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The heat wave in India is hurting agricultural production in India. Production losses for wheat could range from 6% to 10 or 15%. The mango crop is hit hard with losses of about 70% and quadrupling of mango prices. Mangoes are part of the identity of India and mango farmers get a new high from a bumper crop. This year has been bad for farmers in the north in India's mango belt including Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat.

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Tokyo subway serves 16 million people, New York's 5 million. Tokyo's subway has seen continuous investment over six decades, whereas the NY subway does not get federal spending investment and lacks continuous investment every year. The result is a creaky old system in the US compared to a modern highly efficient system in Japan. WSJ looks at the two subway systems in this video explaining why they are the way they are.

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The effects of the pandemic on education are seen in the drop in scores for 4th and 8th graders in the US for math and reading. In math at 8th grade cores fell from 34% being proficient in 2019 to 26% in 2022. For 4th graders from 41% being proficient to in 2019 to 36% in 2022. Reading scores declined in more than half the states in a downward trend and only about a third of students were proficient.

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US exports of liquefied natural gas to China surged in 2021 to 17% of al exports. LNG in China's energy mix surged to 8% in 2020 and is even higher in 2021. Facing pressure to peak carbon emissions by 2030, and facing energy shortage in 2021, China is importing more LNG than ever. Prices of LNG have gone up 10 times in 2021 compared to year earlier. China is now the world's largest importer of LNG.

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The Survey published by Britain's Nationa Health Service (NHS) shows an increase by about half since 2017. The pandemic has made the problem severe with lockdowns, closure of schools and inequality in society leaving many children without access to online learning because of a lack of internet. What is seen early in this NHS Survey is probably true for many countries Mexico to Brazil, India to Indonesia, Egypt to South Africa, much of Europe and the US. This needs to be addressed quickly, for children. It also needs to be addressed for adults. 

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The second time around European leaders are more adept at handling a new DJT administration in the US. Scholz meets with Orban in Budapest. All European leaders meet in Budapest to assert a combined approach to Ukraine, to the US tariffs plans. European Union leaders feel confident they can come up with solutions acceptable to Europe, and assert Europe's interests without being dependent on the US.

Even the collapse of the Scholz German coalition government with the FDP party and Lindner defecting is taken in stride by saying that a new coalition will take its place. The loss of the FDP is not seen as critical as it is down to less than 4% in popular support in Germany. Orban and Hungary are also brought into the discussion to present a united Europe.

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All three countries in the South Asian neighborhood now face economic crisis of large proportions - Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, all turning to the IMF for help. In the case of Sri Lanka there was help from the beginning from India. It was lack of jobs and not enough jobs generated even with a decade of 7% economic growth. It was in protests over job quotas reserved for independence soldiers that led to the ouster of Sheik Hasina's government. This report in NYT shows overdependence on garment exports which generated growth for decades under PM Hasina as having a drawback during Covid. The disruptions in the supply chain during Covid hurt Bangladesh when garment earnings dropped. At one point the industry was closed for months. India provided assistance including vaccines during Covid and India is the largest destination for Bangladesh exports with economic ties to 5 Indian states. The recovery from Covid has not been strong and has led to reduction in foreign exchange reserves. In 2022 Bangladesh turned to the IMF for assistance. Not enough jobs were being created for a large population. In 2000 the population was 129 million, in 2019 before pandemic 165 million. Today in 2024 it is 171 million, increasing by 33% from 2000. By contrast in a communist state Vietnam population increased by 22 million to 99 million or 29% in 2024 from 2000   Foreign exchange reserves dropped during the pandemic to $23 billion in July 2023, in the last 11 months it dropped by $4 billion to $19 billion. By comparison Pakistan's are at $13 billion, up $4 billion in 11 months. Foreign remittances from Bangladeshis overseas are another source of foreign exchange. The major problem of getting tax revenues with people and business not paying taxes due is a problem for Bangladesh and for Pakistan. India has made huge gains through GST and digitization of economy to get tax revenues to support economic growth and infrastructure. And under the leadership of prime minister Modi there is discipline, girt, a strategic focus, with good governance, that is similar to what helped transform Japan and China into industrialized nations. This is missing in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh and in Burma. This gives some idea why in the present budget north and eastern Indian states of Bihar, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, with a combined population of 230 million people are in a specially designated region for development. It is a gathering momentum against centuries of foreign occupation and neglect similar to that seen in China. ...

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China's environmental protection ministry's report on what its costing China to have runaway growth- it would cost 136 billion dollars to clean up the environmental damage done by haphazard reckless growth and dumping of chemicals. Meantime about 300 million people suffer from the contamination of water and lack of access to clean water. Of the 25 most polluted cities in the world 16 are in China.

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For 2008 advertising pages in consumer magazines went down by 12%. According to Publishers Information Bureau therre was a 17% decline in ad pages for the fourth quarter compared year over year. Automakers bought 24% fewer ad pages according to PIB. Of news magazines Newsweek and Time lost 19% of their ad pages, but the Economist was a surprise with ad pages up 4%.

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Wholesale price inflation reached a 13 year high of 11% as India faces steep rises in the price of food and energy. The government's recent decision to remove some energy subsidies increased energy prices by about 10%. The central bank raised its key short term lending rate by 0.5 percentage points to 8.5% and increased the amount of cash banks must keep in reserve.

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This NYT editorial points to the dangers lurking behid the jobless numbers. The House bill that passed recently for $154 billion to extend unemployment benefits- set to expire in Feb 2010- to June 2010, and increases aid to local and state governments. It also includes infrastructure spending and help for small business. But it does not do enough for young people whose joblesness is at all time high. For instance only 4 in 100 low income black students found work in Fall 2009 This according to a study by the Northeastern University Center for Labor Market Studies. According to the analysis done by this Center the employment rates among teenagers has risen four times faster than the rate among adults since 2000, and todayme over 65 are more likely to find jobs than youth of 16-19 years.

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One of Boeing's major customers airline Norwegian Air has subsidiaries in Denmark and Sweden that have gone bankrupt. Boeing has 92 undelivered orders for 737 Maxs and 2 787 Dreamliner aircraft waiting to be taken to Scandinavia. Additional 219 orders from leasing companies for aircraft were cancelled. In addition airlines such as Emirates are renegotiating price of 787 aircraft orders. Boring's commercial aircraft division is using up $4 billion a month just to keep production and suppliers running. It has used up half of a $14 billion credit line and has $15 billion in cash.The 737 Max crashes and failures cost an additional $18.7 billion in costs. 2019 ended with $27 billion in debt. Boeing has few options- the Trump administration is likely to support a government guarantee because Boeing is one of America's best companies and makes up 1% of U.S. GDP. Boeing assembly lines for models 747, 767, and 777 are going into full production on April 21. 787 line will open April 23 and run at full capacity by April 26. ...

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Young South Africans, the so called born frees- born after the end of Apartheid and free elections in 1994- are diillusioned with the African National Congress of Nelson Mandela. They are disssatisfied with the lack of jobs, a poor education system, and tired of the corruption scandals under former president Jacob Zuma. A recent IPSOS poll shows only 55% of 18-24 year olds supporting the ANC compared to 61% overall. Some polls showed support dropping from born frees to below 50%. Almost half of the 58 million people of South Africa are born frees. Their view is expressed by one mother of three living in a shack in Alexandra Township in Johannesburg. She says we tried the ANC but are still living in squatter camps and dirty places. Only the ANC's reach into rural areas, its superior organization, and lack of viable alternatives, are likely to keep the ANC back in power. The Economic Freedom Fighters led by Mr. Malema, a former head of the ANC youth wing is likely to double its vote to 12% from the last election.  ...

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Deteriorating China Iran relations as the oil imports from Iran for China face US tariffs of 25% on China's exports to US, and US economic relations far more significant for the Chinese economy. China gets somwhere between 1.4 to 1.6 million barrels aday from Iran (80% of Iran's oil exports) into Shandong refiners at $10 below Brent crude prices. Another 400 mbd comes from Venezuela to China. This means $30 billion comes to Iran from oil sales to China at $59 a barrel, and $8 billion for Venezuela from oil sales to China. This has financed much of the bellicose policies towards the US in the western hemisphere and in the Gulf region. Iran's bellicose policies in the Middle East, its nuclear policy, are now seen by China as a distraction and  detract from good economic relations with the US. China $400 billion oil deal 25 year cooperation agreement signed in 2021 was signed under the Biden administration and China today faces a completely different situation in 2026. Even China's relations with Russia are not the same as the US builds better relations with Russia. A wind down of the Ukraine war would change the situation completely and ensure peace in Europe including Russia, as the US works with the EU to meet future challenges having learned from this experience in Europe (Ukraine dividing Europe) and in the Western hemisphere (drug/ migrant. trafficking). When historians write this chapter of the inflows of capital from advanced West to Arab countries and the Gulf region they will write about the huge contrast between China/India's efforts to modernize and these nations where much of that capital was wasted in wars and conflicts and in grandiose projects that made no material difference to the standard of living and quality of life of the vast number of ordinary people. Once the oil dividend is gone with fossil fuels replaced with renewable energy by 2035-2040 this opportunity to advance is lost for the Arab and Gulf region. ...