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China's new prime minister Li Keqiang makes his first foreign trip with a trade delegation for talks with Indian representatives and business leaders, showing the importance he places on India. India offers China's companies access to large opportunties in infrastructure development, and China can benefit from India in the area of information technology and pharmaceuticals. Trade is envisioned as expanding from $70 billion in 2012 to $100 billion by 2015, and expanding rapidly as the two economies grow. Economic contacts also would provide an anchor for future relations as China faces difficulties in its relations with Japan, and S. E. Asian countries, and a U.S. wary of China's capabilities. This was pointed out in the joint statement. Li Keqiang also emphasized this in an editorial page article in India's daily newspaper, the Hindu, saying India and China have "to work hand in hand," to promote Asia as "an anchor for world peace." A peaceful India-China trade and economic relationship opens the way for investment and participation in development by China alongside Japan, Germany, France, UK and the U.S. in India, as the next major source for global economic growth. This also serves to defuse Asian tensions as both economies grow, and increased contacts between cities in India and China with the twining of cities program launched in the meetings. India can use China's capabilities in infrastructure development, the two countries share the need for information sharing on lowcost solutions in healthcare, in managing urbanization, and solutions for clean water in rural areas, and use of IT solutions in development, where much remains to be accomplished through cooperation. Some of these themes are the focus of Li Keqiang in his efforts for urbanization in China. ...

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Spain's Budget minister, Cristobal Montero, said the government would have a new credit line and provide an early infusion of $10 billion to aid financially troubled regions. Many of the regions are in such financial straits that they are unable to pay suppliers, and this is putting many small businesses in serious difficulties. Spain's prime minister Rajoy says the Spanish government needs to be concerned about what is happening in the regions, and that he would help regions as long as they meet their budget goals. Spain adopted a decentralized model after the years of the Franco dictatorship, and regions handle education, health care and social services, culture and providing services. With the economic crisis following years of free spending by the regions, the extent of this autonomy and the lack of budget controls is being called into question. Officials from regions such as Aragon, Valencia and Murcia have called on the federal government to play a bigger role.

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German chancellor, Angela Merkel's advisor, Uwe Corsepius, briefed European Union ambassadors on the draft document for EU economic integration, prepared by the German ministry. This document identifies six priorities: abolition of wage indexation systems, agreement on mutual recognition of education qualifications, creation of a common base for assessing corporate tax, adjustment of the pension systems, establishment of a national crisis management regime for banks and new legal measures to force countries to commit to tough fiscal policies through a "debt alert mechanism." Under the plan countries will be assessed agaist economic indicators and tracked by the European Commission. Other steps Merkel is proposing are coordinating retirement ages across countries. See the interview with Portugal's prime minister Socrates, where he supports the coordination of the retirement age. Socrates does not commit to taking out the adjustment of wages for inflation in that interview. The leaders of 27 countries of the EU meet February 4 in Brussels, and this document will be discussed at the meeting....

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U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Yellen launches a sweeping review of practices for supervision of large banks in Nov. 2014. The review is designed to check "whether there are adequate methods for decisionmakers to obtain all necessary information to make supervisory assessments and determinations," and whether channels exist for decision makers to take into account divergent views when important issues arise. This is in response to questions about how the culture at the New York Federal Reserve may have stifled differing opinions on how banks should be supervised and what is proper information sharing between regulators and banks.

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Steve Jobs, the co-founder of Apple and its CEO, passed away on September 5, 2011. He helped create the Macintosh, the iPod, iTunes, the iPhone and the iPad, changing the way people work, listen to music, or work and communicate with portable handheld devices. He made significant contributions through the devices he helped create by making them easy to use, look and feel good. By making as he said "the whole widget," both the software, hardware and other design, and a relentless focus on how the products worked in the hands of consumers, Jobs was able to come up with unique products like the Mac, iPod, iphone, and the iPad. The pioneering work of Jobs began early, in 1977 with the first Macintosh computer, and continued through 2010 with the introduction of the iPad. Jobs first first period at Apple lasted from 1976 to 1985, closing when Jobs left the company after differences with then CEO John Sculley. He rejoined the company in 1996 when Apple acquired Next, the company founded by Jobs in the intervening period. The first period saw the emergence of Microsoft in the personal computer world. In 1997 Apple accepted an investment of $150 million from Microsoft and told Mac fans that "we want to let go off this notion that for Apple to win, Microsoft has to loose." Microsofts Office software could be used on Mac computers by this arrangement and helped Apple survive this period. Later in a 2005 address at Stanford University, Jobs told students about the first period: "The heaviness of being successful was replaced by the lightness of being a beginner again, less sure about everything. It freed me to enter one of the most creative periods of my life." Jobs personal story is of being college dropout from Reed College, Oregon, where he dropped out after one semester in 1972, because of financial issues. He then worked parttime at Atari, and in 1975 associated with the Homebrew Computer Club where he met Apple co-founder Wozniak. He was the son of unwed parents, University of Wisoconsin grad student Joanne Carole Schieble and a Syrian exchange student Abdulfattah Jandali. He was adopted by Paul and Clara Jobs shortly after birth. ...

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The Nobel Prize Committee's views on free expression of opinion in China, and the selection of Liu Xiaobo for the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize. Thorbjorn Jagland, chairman of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, points out that it is not an interference in China's internal affairs, because international human rights law and standards are above the nation-state, and the world community has a duty to ensure that they are respected. Jagland says the issue is universal human rights and the check on arbitrary majorities around the world. Even if the country is not a constitutional democracy, it is a member of the United Nations, and it has amended its Constitution to comply with the Declaration of Human Rights. The Nobel Committee chairman points to two other selections for the Nobel Prize, that of Andrei Sakharov of Russia, and of Rev. Martin Luther King of the U.S., as evidence that the Nobel Committee has stood up for universal human rights for a long time.

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Reforms planned by the administration of Naoto Kan in Japan. This includes a plan to make changes to social security, raising the consumption tax, and plans for a free trade area called the Trans-Pacific Partnership that includes America.

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ECB president Draghi tells a Brookings Institution audience on Oct. 9, 2014 "for governments that have fiscal space, then of course it makes sense to use it," referring to Germany. IMF's Christine Lagarde is also calling on Germany to increase spending. The German statistics office says exports declined 5.8% in August from prior month. Mr. Draghi also emphasized that the survival of European governments depended on getting economic changes right- "if they don't do the right things, they will disappear forever because they will not be re-elected." Germany's respected economic institutes said in a joint statement that GDP growth in 2014 will be down from earlier forecast of 1.9% to 1.3%. In 2015 growth is forecast at 1.2%. For the 3rd quarter 2014 growth is zero and for the 4th quarter 2014 it is estimated at 0.1%. Economic contraction is not ruled out.

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A New York hedge fund Elliott Management Corp. finally makes a settlement with the new Argentine government of president Mauricio Macri. It took 15 years and 5 different administrations in Argentina. Eliott gained $2.4 billion 10-15 times the original investment on Argentine bonds made in 2001, but requiring extraordinary persistence from hedge fund manager Mr. Newman at Elliott Management Corp and Mr. Singer. In 2001 the Argentine bonds traded at 20 cents to the dollar, and Mr. Newman who had made large gains on Peruvian bonds saw this as a good investment. By 2008 the bonds instead traded at pennies on the dollar, and the Argentine government later settled with 93% of bondholders at 30 cents to the dollar. The holdouts were three hedge funds, including Elliott. The Argentine government of Kirchner opposed any settlement with the holdouts. The situation changed with the election of Mauricio Macri in 2015, who made resolution of the issue a priority, so that Argentina could borrow in global financial markets and grow its economy. The U.S. Supreme Court had rejected Argentina's appeal of a U.S. District Court ruling prohibiting paying interest on exchanged bonds when payment had not been made to the holdout hedge funds- which led to the settlement with Elliott, and closing a long and difficult chapter for Argentina....

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Friedman points to the parallel between the democracy movements in Eastern Europe and the Arab World, and sees one difference. Whereas the countries in Eastern Europe were mostly homogenous except for Yugoslavia, the countries in the Arab world are homogenous only in Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco. Which makes the transition to democracy that much harder with sectarian interests, the Sunni-Shiite divide, tribal differences, and the lack of a transition period for building democratic institutions. This will require vision, leadership and perseverance from Arab peoples and from the outside world.

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Proof that this is not an ordinary deep recession like those in the post war period comes in the way foreign trade is reacting in this downturn. Already evidence of this has been seen in the way Germany has been affected because of slowing exports from China to the US. German exports to China have declined as the Chinese export model comes under severe stress. A similiar situation is playing out for Japan. Now new proof of the drop in foreign trade is emerging in Commerce Department figures. Combined exports and imports of the USA dropped 18% in 4 months July to November, to $326 billion from $398 billion. Two thirds of this drop was in imports. So China and Japan's exports to the USA are severely affected. Japan showed a 27% decline in exports in November, according to the Japanese Ministry of Finance, and imports dived 14%. According to calculations by the WSJ, Germany had 11.8% decline in foreign trade in November, and similiar numbers for France and Britain. Chief US Economist at IHS Global Insight, Nigel Gault, says this is going to be the worst global recession since World War II. Combined with what is happening to inventories, (see links) and what is happening in housing, banking, the auto industry, and other industries, the complications of non-transparent packaged financial products clogging the American financial system, the hugely indebted consumer (see links), and the $2.1 trillion and rising cost of the stimulus and bailouts needed by one estimate, suggest that the recovery forecast for 2009-2010 does not take into account all these simultaneously occurring patterns and developments working together. ...

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Krugman points out that the loss of 490,000 public sector jobs in Britain, as laid out in British Finance Minister Osborne's plan, is equivalent to the loss of 3 million jobs in the U.S.. He does not see the private sector being able to create the jobs to make up for this loss. He cites Osborne's speech to Parliament, in which he said that "Britain was on the brink of bankruptcy," as a shift in rhetoric of the Cameron government from hope to concern that jobs in the private sector would not materialize.

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This WSJ editorial welcomes the change in India in the form of Modi bringing his executive experience in Gujarat state to the national level. It also points out the risks of Modi following a simple model of state capitalism pursued by China which also has political controls, and of the form in Brazil which invites crony capitalism and limited results. Better says the WSJ to take a new approach to satisfy the growing aspirations of young people who overwhelmingly supported Modi in the hope of better access to jobs and improved standards of living.

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China's Defense Minister Gen. Wei and Mr. Austin, US Defense Secretary are to meet on the sidelines of a conference in Singapore in 2022. Mr. Wei last met Defense Secretary Mark Esper in 2019 in Bagkok. No meetings have taken place since then. Gen. Wei is seen as an outspoken leader who told a conference in 2019 that the use of the military to stop the Tiananmen protests in Beijing in 1989 was the right step as this gave Chine three decades of peaceful development.

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One more area where the Obama administration has not acted decisively is the building of high seed rail networks. Spain has plans to invest $140 billion over next 10 years to develop a network of 6200 miles of high speed rail lines.So far the Obama administration has allocated $8 billion, and the whole issue is being put off for another 18 months. Department of Transportation has already received proposals for $100 billion of new high speed rail lines from 40 states.

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There can be some comfort with the loss of the usual social contact during the period of lockdown and working from home. There are is the opportunity to slow down, pause and reflect in prayer or meditation. There is also time to spend in gardens or parks, a patio or balcony to be outside. As Adrian Higgins of the Washington Post- who has two books on gardening and covered it since the 1980's- points out here we are not apart from nature or above it, we are nature, and plants and birds outside are fellow beings of a sort. Most of us live in tight urban environments and this is a great opportunity to break away from all the noise and bustle and experience some time with nature and with ourselves. A time for renewal and listening to our inner voices, as the gods may be reminding us about living a better and slower life. Higgins reminds us that sometimes it is an experience that is alive in memory as there is a word for it in Japanese and in German, and in other languages. In Japan shinrin-yoku is about forest bathing, by finding a woodland or park and experiencing the stillness. Germans call it a forest walk or waldspaziergang. Plant gardens or parks will do, even landscaped areas in urban settings. The shades in a garden with sunlight falling in different ways on leaves and plants. We develop a capacity to notice things we stopped noticing as we grew up. Just walk or sit quietly and look. Plants and trees also take away some of the isolation and loneliness as they are fellow travelers of a sort. As anyone who has planted will know we can look forward to the new flowering, and the growth into next year, and the next. We have got too intertwined with the short term and the immediate fulfillment, and this draws us out of this in ways that enrich and nourish our lives.     ...

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U.S. Fed governor, Daniel Tarullo, said in a recent speech that U.S. financial institutions could be required to meet stronger capital requirements than the Basel international standards. The Fed is considering requiring the riskiest financial institutions to put aside 8.4% to 14% of capital. The Basel standards require institutions to gradually increase the capital cushions to 7% by 2019 from about 2% at this time. Less risky institutions would would have a smaller increase over the Basel standards- about 20% compared to the 100% increase over Basel for the riskiest institutions. Speaking at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Tarullo said- "The regulatory structure ...should discourage systemically consequential growth or mergers unless the benefits to society are clearly significant." Tarullo said no one wants to see another TARP. Banks would have to build up their capital reserves using common equity and not other forms of less reliable capital such as contingent capital, where banks convert debt instruments into equity in an emergency. Tarullo emphasized the need for the U.S. to move beyond the Basel requirements, known as Basel III, because they are narrowly designed for individual institutions and do not adequately address the systemic risk. When there is a high degree of risk correlation among many actors in fast moving markets additional risks are created which require stronger capital standards. Tarullo said systemically important institutions have "no incentive to carry enough capital to reduce the chances of such systemic losses."...

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Of the $41 billion borrowed by states in the US from the federal government to pay unemployment insurance benefits, $8.8 billion was borrowed by California by mid-Nov 2010, according to the Labor Department. As states try to pay back these loans state payroll taxes are rising. One estimate showed 41 states increased unemployment insurance payroll taxes in 2010 by 34%. As unemployment periods are stretched out this time, states are running short of funds. In 2008-2009 fiscal year, states collected $31 billion of unemploymet insurance taxes and spent $79.4 billon on jobless benefits.

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Clemens Wergin of Germany's Die Welt newspaper offers an alternative German view on the disengagement policies adopted by Germany as the Middle East unravelled, and points to the costs of following the policies of doing little followed by U.S. president Obama. He says Europe faces a security crisis in its neigboring region of North Africa, similar to how it faced a crisis in the Balkans, which has resulted in the refugee crisis; and that it needs to work with its partners Britain and France to develop its own policies if the U.S. continues to pursue policies of disengagement from the Middle East, North Africa and other regions.

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The 2015 budget for the European Union borders agency Frontex was increased by 17.5% from 97 million euros to 114 million euros, yet it remains underfunded with the huge influx of refugees through Greece and from Turkey. For 2016 the budget increases by 54% to 176 million euros. It is based in Warsaw, Poland. It does not have its own border guards, planes and ships, which are provided to it by the member states of the EU and paid for from its budget. It was not deisigned to address a problem of this magnitude at EU borders and some new form of the agency needs to be developed.

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German unemployment is falling since 2005 when it peaked at 5 million unemployed. Its down by 711,000 in 2007. The unemployment rate is now down to 8.4% and should continue falling. Causes are several trends, a strong external economy means higher exports to Asia, Russia and the Middle East. And demographics with aging population and fewer working age people means jobs created fill the ranks of fewer people available to work. But this trend may be slowed by a further strengthening of the euro, a global slowdown, or a minimum wage that is on the high side 7-8 euros instead of 5-6 euros.

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This report on Mumbai's underground subway by Corinne Abrams was first published in WSJ January 6, 2019 with Lyrarc gist. Then as happened too often in the past it became the victim of a change in government with the new government in December 2019 stalling the rapid work on the project. Only when it was voted out in June 2022 did the rapid work shown in this Jan 2019 WSJ report resume. It has accelerated under Ashwini Bhide's leadership of the METRO organization and work is back to round the clock 24 hours a day. "A 27 station, 21 mile subway is being built under one of Asia's most crowded cities- Mumbai. It is moving ahead at the pace of one mile a month, with 9 miles complete, started in 2016 the $3.3 billion Metro Line 3 is on track to be completed by 2021. The government of prime minister Modi is eager to show that it is able to tackle some of the toughest infrastructure projects like this one and get them done on  time. As the head of the Metro Rail Corporation, Ms. Ashwini Bhide puts it this should have been done yesterday, considering the appalling and difficult rides facing Mumbai's millions of residents every day on its old and creaky rail system. There is she says " a desperation" to get this done as is true for so many of the infrastructure projects that need to be done in India." "When complete it will take 1.6 million riders a day 80 feet underground to destinations across the city in air conditioned coaches." ...

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Share of mortgages at least 30 days past due declined to 6.39% in the 4th quarter 2013, down from 7.09% a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Foreclosure inventory declined to 2.9% for 4th quarter 2013. Three fourths of the troubled loans are from the period before 2007. The improved economic situation and lower unemployment has helped. Also helping is the increase in prices, with home prices up 8.4% in Dec. 2013 over the prior year, according to Black Knight Financial Services. The price increase has reduced the number of homes "under water"- owing more than the homes are worth- from 19% in Jan 2013 to 11.4% in October, according to Black Knight. Banks have also tightened their lending practices. The progress is uneven with California and Arizona, some of the worst hit states doing better in 2013. Judicial states such as New York and Florida, where courts have to approve foreclosure by banks, are making gradual improvement. About 1.5% of California homes were in foreclosure by the end of 2013, compared to 8.5% in Florida, according to MBA. In 2014 price improvements are expected to slow, and the 10% of homes in various stages of delinquency or foreclosure still remain as a hangover from the housing crisis that slows U.S. economic recovery....