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India gets 4,100 megawatts from nuclear power or only 2.7% of capacity of 152,000 megawatts. It currently has 17 nuclear power plants. THe US-India Nuclear Cooperation Treaty signed in October 2008 wil give abig push to nuclear energy in India. Six new plants will be built. Nuclear power will rise to an estimated 40,000 megawatts by 2020, and Prime Minister Singh said it could generate 470,000 megawatts by 2050. THis week India's Hindusthan Construction Company signed adeal with Amec PLC, a UK engineering and project management company for taking up nuclear energy plants in India. About 500 engineers are eventually expected to work for the company.

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Banco Santander, Brazil, sold 600 million units at a price of 23.5 reais each, according to a filing with Brazil's regulator. With each unit representing 55 common shares and 50 preferred shares. The offering was increased from a planned 525 million to 600 million units so that investor demand could be met. Santander's US traded stock was priced at $13.50 each. Santander following a series of acquisitions is Brazil's third largest bank after Itau Unibanco and Bradesco, having a 10.2% market share. It is also the largest IPO for Brazil. The growing demand for emerging market securities is evident in the rate at which the Bovespa Brazil Index jumped in 2009.

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How the promise of free or low cost transportation for the 584,000 students who have a free or a half-fare card has helped bring a diverse group of students to New York city schools as students can commte distances to reach their desired school without having to worry about the cost. This can be $700 for a school year for a typical student. Now with budget cuts at New York city's MTA starting in Sept 2011 these students will lose this benefit. Its asymptom of cuts going on across the nation, from fee raises in the University of California system to student fares on the New York City MTA.

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Martin Peers of WSJ says he thinks the $250 million infusion from Carlos Slim may buy too little time for New York Times company, if it does not do more aggressive cost cutting and asset sales. The asset sales are going to be difficult for media business in this environment with declining ad spending. In the first 9 months of 2008 revenue fell 6.5% to $2.18 billion but production, selling general and administrative expenses fell only 1.9% to $1.99 billion, says Peers so its cost base is not shrinking fast enough. And the 14% interest for the Slim investment raises interest costs from $50 million to $74 million a year.

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The election of the Metropolitan Krill to head the Russian Orthodox Church marks a new beginning for Russia. His father and grandfather before him, were dissidents who spent time in soviet prison camps and were priests. He talked about the need for the church to rely on its own inner spiritual strength to carry on the dialogue with society and the state, and the need to find ways to restore the moral values now in decline in Russian society. He believes in the outreach to secular society. Greater involvement of the church to bring Russian society improvements in values and moral fabric can be expected.

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Water is aserious problem in China's wheat growing areas as a result of a long drought. It also highlights the problem from years of industrialization and overuse and waste of water. Now aquifiers are so depleted that in some farming regions, wells probe half amile down before striking water. Here Shi Segan, Communist party secretary of Zhailing village describes how 14 years ago when well were first drilled water was plentiful and could be pulled up by the buckets, now a well 100 foot deep get mere trickles of water. Villagers like these are concerned that after government relief efforts are over the long run water situation is bad.

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As Indian pharmaceutical industry sees drug testing in India as an opportunity, conditions for obtaining the best results are being established by taking necessary steps. With ashortage of experienced people to run drug trials, Indian government has stepped up training, setting up partnerships with the U.S. FDA, Health Canada, the World Health Organization, and other similiar organizations, The emphasis should be on credible dat and the safety of subjects says A.K. Pradhan, India's Assistant Drug Controller. After the death of an infant in a Wyeth Pharmaceuticals drug testing effort, the Drug Controller of India though supportive of Wyeth has raised certain issues that Wyeth is addressing.

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Krugman says that America has lost credibility with the Europeans just when it needs it most. When it is doing some of the right things and asking the Europeans to likewise give alarge stimulus to their economies. But now the Europeans looking at how the American financial system has lacked the very supervision and the transparency that it lectured other countries about during the Asian financial crisis of 1998, are in no mood to be lectured by the Americans. So one of the things that was most troubling about the Great Depression, the lack of cooperation between countries, is still happening today, as Krugman sees it.

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After carbon dioxide at 40%, black carbon at 18% is the No 2 cause of global warming on the planet earth. This black carbon is generated from thousands of villages in the develooping world and from countries like India, where village women cook food over stoves that burn twigs and dung, not having stoves to cook on. If they are provided with stoves that use fuel these black carbon emissions can easily and quickly be cut. This is also cuasing dense smoke to fill their homes and black grime to stick to the thatched huts and thatched roofs, and it puts ablack cloud over stretches of landscape in these villages.

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The decline in the value of sterling, easing of monetary polcy, and fiscal policy stimulus measures, all are helping to stabilize the British economy. Because of its smaller manufacturing base Britain will see asmaller drop in GDP of about 4% compared to Japan and Germany where the drop will be in the range of 5-6%. Britain's strength in pharmaceuticals and aircraft industries which are relatively stable makes the impact less severe. But with government increasing its borrowing, 175 billion pounds or $254 billion in 2009 alone, public sector net debt is expected to go up from 40% of GDP to 80% of GDP by 2013-2014.

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German unemployment is falling since 2005 when it peaked at 5 million unemployed. Its down by 711,000 in 2007. The unemployment rate is now down to 8.4% and should continue falling. Causes are several trends, a strong external economy means higher exports to Asia, Russia and the Middle East. And demographics with aging population and fewer working age people means jobs created fill the ranks of fewer people available to work. But this trend may be slowed by a further strengthening of the euro, a global slowdown, or a minimum wage that is on the high side 7-8 euros instead of 5-6 euros.

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As sales decline in the USA auto industry even the Japanese take a hit. Toyota sales down 10% in March 2008 compared with March 2007 only slightly less than the 12% for the US auto industry as a whole. About one assembly plant worth of idle capacity exists at Toyota. Sales declines at GM and Chrysler19%, at Ford 14%. In fact Shoichiro Toyoda visited Toyota's Indiana plant last October concerned about the idle capacity at the plant. See the link to this and Toyota's senior people like the honorary chairman were concerned about what is happening to Toyota fearing that Toyota may be facing some dangers and was getting complacent.

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Automakers have huge problems servicing debt, with GM servicing $45 billion debt. Also all that inventory in trucks but also cars weighs heavily as cost for automakers, cars 28% overstocked, trucks 13% overstocked, as sales fall according to Credit Suisse analysts. And overseas bright spots are gone with global financial crisis. And Goldman estimates GM will use up $9 billion in 2009, and working capital cash balances need to be $11 to $14 billion. So do lower oil prices matter, not so much for automakers. And Chrysler is a bad choice for merger partner says a Merrill Lynch analyst because of its product and overexposure to the US market.

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ECB president Mario Draghi describes the problem of financial fragmentation in the EU, as each country's national supervisors ask their banks to withdraw their activities to within national boundaries. This ringfencing of liquidity positions means the interbank market is not functioning. Draghi says this financial fragmentation is within the mandate of the ECB to correct. He points to the risk of convertibility that has more and more to do with the premia being charged for Spain's and Italy's government bonds, not just the perception that the counter party can fail.-"To the extent that these premia have to do with factors inherent to my counterparty, they come into our mandate, they come within our remit." Draghi's effort to define the issues of financial fragmentation, and sovereign premia "hampering the functioning of the monetary policy transmission channels," is critical because the ECB sees it important to act within its mandate. The final point he makes is a political one about the future of the euro: "When people talk about the fragility of the euro, and the increasing fragility of the euro, and perhaps the crisis of the euro, very often non-euro area member states or leaders underestimate the amount of political capital that's been invested in the euro. We view this, and we are not unbiased observers in Frankfurt. We think the euro is irreversible. And its not an empty word now, because it preceded saying exactly what actions we are making that would make it irreversible." On the progress made, the acceptance of one financial and banking supervisor by member countries of the EU is seen as part of the idea of shared sovereignty necessary to put meaningful supervision across national boundaries in place. And on the structural reforms and deficit controls needed to be put in place he sees "the pace has been set, and all the signals that we get are they don't stop reforming themselves."...

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Iran War and rescue of pilot of downed F15-E in mountainous terrain in southern Iran April 4 2026. CSAR or Search and Rescue Missions become a critical part of the war. The pilot was a colonel trained for the mission and spent 24 hours in mountainous terrain which was monitored by US forces, after intelligence located him in a mountain crevice. For this to be possible unlike in the Vietnam War and Korean War other nations are not involved as in the earlier Cold War.  The US under DJT as president has shifted to respecting Russia as a Northern European power that it can talk with (meetings with Putin in Alaska 2025) and China as a trade partner (planned meeting in Beijing in April 2026) that it can talk with unlike with previous administrations of Biden, Obama and Bush where China had afree hand in economic matters and global trade and Russia was shut out of the world economic system by elites who ran the government in the US at that time. Russia seeks reintegration in the world political and economic systems, and China seeks acceptance as an economic power which the US respects, both points in which the US has offered to accept. US has also repeated the line to China that it was not going to do the job of keeping Hormuz open for China and Japan to get 90% of oil imports, and in oding so risk losing its soldier's lives, while China and Japan can quietly watch doing nothing to help free navigation of international waters. Note that the narrowest strip of water of 13 miles separates Oman from Iran so that a part of these waters are on the Omani side and not on the Iranian side making free use of that Omani part under international law possible- in which sense Iranian hostile activity closing the Omani side also is a violation of free navigation. This is not pointed out by Iran or Japan or even Britain who are benefitting from US action and remaining silent or being ambivalent or accusing US of being interventionist even when everyone knows MAGA base rejected Bush in the Republican party and the elites and embraced DJT for great part because they want nothing to do with interventionist adventures in the Middle East for certain. US is getting a bum rap from European allies and from China, India, Japan and the media inside the US and in those countries as if the US seeks oil from the Middle East. It was Britain where a lot of the posturing goes on about non intervention that started this oil based intervention since 1900 in Iran itself, and in artificial states of Iraq, Syria, that it created out of the collapsed Ottoman Empire in World War 1. Sykes and Picot were the US and French diplomats who set that up. US under DJT has accomplished self sufficiency in oil and US has no need for anything from the Middle East, no desire to even get involved, and MAGA well grasps that fact and wants to keep it that way. Only nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles with long range to hit US and EU are reason for US action, which is reason enough for EU, China, Russia to set their own goals so that non proliferation in dangerous areas is prevented. So that the people of China, Russia, India, Europe and the rest of the world can enjoy the fruits of their own labors after a century of severe hardships and struggles which the American people if not their elites respect, and the fruits of peaceful cooperation which the American people extend to the World, and to China, Russia and India. ...

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This may be one of the best responses at the confirmation hearings on an important topic of climate. Watch Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in confirmation hearings with Le Zeldin for EPA Administrator. Lee Zeldin said "climate change is real," and DJT was talking in "the context of the economic cost of some policies where there is a debate and a difference of opinion among parties."

In responding to Senators Lee Zeldin promised cooperation with a bipartisan spirit to tackle climate change, talk to other countries including China about climate change action, and work with individual states including Alaska and Utah which have clean water and air concerns. His demeanor and responses were calm and collected and expressed a desire to fulfill the hopes of most of the Committee Democrats and Republicans through actions of the EPA on climate and the environment.

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Current UK approval ratings show Labour losing a lot of support and would be he largest party but lead Tories by about 10 seats. Keir Starmer's unfavorability rating is about 61% and his favorability rating at about 27% by Ipsos in December 2024. Kemi Badenoch's is worse than Rishi Sunak and at negative 5% net approval (difference betwen approval and disapproval) approaches the negative 9% of Liz Truss. 

Reform UK of Nigel Farage could increase it's seats in parliament to 71 from 5 seats. Liberals would have close to Reform UK seats and Greens 8 seats. Labour according to one poll would have 256 seats to Tories 208. Labour could have a tiny majority with the help of Liberal Democrats compared to the landslide recently on 60% of eligible voters actually voting.

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Chase Banks' Jamie Dimon says he worries about China as a competitor and an adversary, but his real worry is that we in the United States can "get our act together."

“If we are not the pre-eminent military and the pre-eminent economy in 40 years, we will not be the reserve currency. People tell me we are enormously resilient. I agree with that. I think this time is different. This time we have to get our act together and do it very quickly.” 

“What I really worry about is us,” he said. “Can we get our own act together—our own values, our own capabilities, our own management?”

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President George Bush said in 2005, that if someone wanted to get a glimpse of how he thinks on foreign policy, he should read Nathan Sharansky's book "The Case for Democracy." Sharansky was an aide to soviet physicist and human rights advocate Andrei Sakharov. Here he is interviewed by David Feith of the Wall Street Journal. His outspoken activism in favor of the right of Soviet Jews to emigrate got him 9 years in the Soviet Gulag. He was released from prison in 1986, with the strong support of President Reagan. He emigrated to Israel and served in ministerial posts and in the Israeli parliament. Sharansky says the recent protests in Egypt prove his fundamental points. That there are limits to how much you can control people through the use of fear, and that all people, regardless of religion and culture, desire and want freedom. This is a very human message, it showed its power when the Berlin Wall fell, and it is true today in the Arab world. He says the fear that this endangers the 1979 Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty is not well founded. Over the last 30 years the border with Syria has been quiet, because it is really Israeli deterrance that is responsible for this and the quiet border with Egypt. He adds there is no justification for Mubarak remaining, as it only creates hostility in the Arab world against the US and Israel. And he says that Mubarak was no friend of the Jewish people, because even as he made peace with Israel, he continued to let anti-Semitism thrive and used Jews as the enemy to enhance his control. Sharansky says Gaza and Hamas control after the election was an unusual situation because of the corruption of the people around Arafat, so that even Christian villages supported Hamas. And he says the longer a dictatorship is in place the worse the situation becomes in creating more hostility to all those who support the dictatorship, including the US and Israel. For Sharansky, the Obama adminstration's response to the Iranian protests after what is seen as a stolen election in Iran, were one of the greatest betrayals of freedom in modern history. To prevent a one time, one person, one vote, Sharansky says the democratic institutions have to take root and this will take more than 8 months, so guarantees need to be put in place that this is not allowed to happen. Safeguards put in place to ensure that whoever is elected cannot survive if democratic institutions and reforms and democracy building does not occur. Dissidents like Mr Ibrahim and others should enjoy the ability to build trade unions and women's organizations. Sharansky says this is a real chance, a chance for the US and the free world to become a partner in change. In change that will help Egypt pass the town square test. Can people freely protest and express their grievances in the town square. And move from this fundamental change to establishing democratic processes and institutions. ...

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Subprime also includes high rate loans that higher income borrowers used between 2004 and 2006 to buy homes that had inflated prices. And these loans were heavily marketed by mortgage lenders and in the later stages of the boom by thrifts and banks who got into the act also. As a result every corner of the country and every income bracket borrowers have been caught up in the high rate borrowing most were overstretching themselves to meet the higher prices of homes as prices went up. This is the finding of a research done by the WSJ of 130 million home loans in the past decade with particular focus on the period 2004- 2006 when the worst aspects of this bubble were taking place. Note that about $600 billion in adjustable rate loans will adjust by the end of 2008. And a total of 1.5 trillion dollars of high rate loans were made in 2004-2006 so more ogf these high rate loans will adjust in 2009. Places like Las Vegas, Nevada, Stockton, California, and Fort Myers, Florida and these states may be the hardest hit but the problem is spread nationwide is what the Journal's research suggests and is also not limited to poorer borrowers. ...

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Pierre Razoux, a French historian provides this account of the Iran-Iraq war that lasted from 1980 to 1988, at a cost of 680,000 people killed and $1.1 trillion in war destruction and money diverted from the economy. In 1980 Saddam Hussein of Iraq launched the war by attacking Iran which had just come under the Ayatollah Khomeini with the fall of the Shah of Iran in 1979. The war dragged on for 8 years with Khomeini persisting in the war. With U.S. and Saudi policy to increase production bringing the price of oil down from $30 to $10 designed to bring Iran and Iraq to the peace talks, as well as the Soviet Union to withdraw from Afghanistan, all three being major oil producers. The dollar also weakened by 37% during this period. The diplomatic isolation of the Khomeini regime made it more difficult for Iran to buy arms on credit than Iraq could, leading to the war ending with Iran finding it no longer possible to continue the human losses. The Carter administration, particularly with National Security Advisor Brzezinski, tilted towards Iraq to oppose Soviets in Afghanistan, and the Saudis also supported Iraq during the early period. Under president Reagan the U.S. began covert and direct assistance to Iraq to prevent an Iraqi defeat early in the war. Rumsfeld visited Baghdad in December 1983 and March 1984 to organize the U.S. effort to oppose Iran. This may have laid the seeds for future conflicts that lasted through the administrations of the elder and junior Bush. As Razoux points out the Revolutionary Guards became entrenched from this period in Iran's history, making it difficult for election process to work or elected governments to operate. 23 months following the end of that war in 1988 Saddam Hussein launched a war on Kuwait, leading to the U.S. led Gulf war and the entry of the U.S. into a ground combat role, which was followed by the invasion of Iraq under George Bush after 9/11 attacks. The twin wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are estimated to have cost the U.S. over 1 trillion dollars. The result today is largely the division on the ground into Shia regions under the Revolutionary Guards and the Shiite government in Baghdad, and Sunni regions led by Islamic State and autonomous Iraqi Sunni tribes, ignoring the Iran-Iraq boundaries set in the colonial period by the French and the British. In all the amount spent in the Khomeini-Saddam war of $ 1 trillion being about $2 trillion in today's money, and the $1 trillion spent by the U.S., means about $3 trillion has gone into the wars in this region. This comes at a time of deficits in government budgets in the U.S. and a deep recession in the U.S. and Europe. It also explains why the U.S. public is reluctant to take even the minor action such as giving a standoff "no-fly zone" protection to the rebels in Syria, and supported the Obama administration in its reluctance to keep even the basic military force in place to protect its diplomatic mission in Libya, where the cost would be small relative to earlier enlarged military missions under the two elder and junior Bush administrations. The result is that refugees are pouring into Europe from Syria and Libya, through Turkey. Turkey itself is host to millions of refugees in camps along its border. The vacuum and the withdrawal of the Obama administration from the region has led to the rise of Islamic State with covert assistance from Sunni regimes in the region to counteract the growing influence of Shiite Iran. It also may explain the Iranian people's support for the nuclear weapons effort through years of sanctions, leading finally to an agreement with the Obama administration that relaxes sanctions in exchange for a future possibility of acquiring nuclear weapons. Lost in the conflict is the Arab Spring of 2012-2013, with the Tunisian democracy the only surviving result of that movement for democracy and awakening among Arab peoples. The Reagan administration in its aggressive anti-Soviet position made large errors- including ignoring human rights abuses and use of chemical weapons in the Iran-Iraq war, by supporting Iraq and reversing position after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, having a disastrous effect on the entire region decades later. Much of the Obama administration's reluctance for any action may stem from the U.S. role in this period and its consequences of protracted conflict. ...

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Kramer, McIntire, and Meier of the NYT, provides this indepth account of Trump top campaign aide Paul Manafort's consulting work in Ukraine for Ukraine's president Yakunovych, ousted after protests in Kiev. Ukraine's newly formed National Anti-Corruption Bureau is looking into corruption in Ukraine's system, including corruption in the Yakunovych years. It is this corruption that has hurt Ukraine and other Eastern European countries in their move towards becoming properly functioning democratic states inside the EU or neighboring the EU. Much aid has been sent to Ukraine by Germany and the EU to help Ukraine develop a democratic and economic framework free of cronyism and corruption. Manafort's involvement with interests in Ukraine and Russia during a period of long and persistent protests in Kiev, followed by the ouster of Yakunovych and the war with Russia, when the policy of the U.S. and Europe was to protect Eastern European  member states of the European Union including Poland and the Baltic States, and reach some form of settlement in Ukraine, are controversial. Andrew Kramer of the NYT describes Manafort's consulting company's activities in Ukraine during this tense period, and how it may have have been counterproductive to the constructive efforts of the U.S. and the European Union. ...

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India's new bankruptcy law is a big step forward in letting credit markets function normally and drawing in new capital. The new law says the bankruptcy should be completed in 180 days after a default. Indian banks hold about $105 billion in non-performing or bad loans, according to the Reserve Bank of India. It is essential that India cope with the bad debt to attract new capital investment and increase growth. Asset reconstruction company being formed by Ambit and J.C. Flowers & Company was approved in late 2016 by the Reserve Bank of India, India's central bank. So far Indian banks have showed unwillingness to take a loss on the loans and take a big discount. Only $3 billion in asset reconstruction has taken place in 2016 through selling bad loans, according to Credit Suisse. Indian industry has relied heavily on bank loans and sale of stock for capital investment as the corporate bond market is undeveloped. This is about to change to finance growth, with the bankruptcy law and transparency as a first step. Larger foreign firms are teaming up with local partners to tackle distressed debt and bad loans, with locals knowledge of risks making it easier to profit from capital invested. ICICI bank won the first ruling of the new bankruptcy law by the National Company Law Tribunal against Innoventive to recover assets, providing the first test of the law. In the past such action would drag on for years, showing India is now serious about getting rid of bad loans in the banking system, and to revitalize credit markets to finance new growth. ...

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Court blocks deportation of a group of Venezuelans on the basis of Alien Enemies Act of 1798, says other remedies can be tried. This is one of 4 laws passed under John Adams in 1798 to remove citizens or subjects of a hostile nation during times of war or invasion. The case now goes to the US Supreme Court. The Court of Appeals of the Fifth Circuit is based in New Orleans with 3 Judges making the decision. Bush appointee Southwick joined Biden appointee Ramirez against Trump appointee Oldham in a 2-1 decision. Oldham in a 131 page dissent says-“Today the majority holds that President Trump is just an ordinary civil litigant. His declaration of a predatory incursion is not conclusive. Far from it. Rather, President Trump must plead sufficient facts — as if he were some run-of-the-mill plaintiff in a breach-of-contract case — to convince a federal judge that he is entitled to relief.” Southwick does not appear to see this as an invasion ignoring the deaths from fentanyl and drug trafficking in the US, the strain on public resources and cities of uncontrolled flow of migrants in recent years, saying- “A country’s encouraging its residents and citizens to enter this country illegally is not the modern-day equivalent of sending an armed, organized force to occupy, to disrupt or to otherwise harm the United States.” Yet even an armed organized force was pushed back in the War of 1812, and has little chance where the current problems have led to the deaths of more young Americans from drug trafficking than three times the deaths in the Vietnam and Korean Wars combined, three times the deaths in World War I and about 75% of the deaths in World War II, something that needs reflection and action. With the changing public sentiment in the UK and Europe and in the US on law and order and on migrants the Supreme Court is faced with coming up with a decision in the best interests of the Nation and its People. ...

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10% tariff on Canada's exports to the US after Ontario Reagan ad misrepresenting trade facts is aired on television. The ad seeks to show US tariffs in the light of the Smoot Hawley tariffs of the 1930's, when the tariffs today date back to Reagan's use of tariffs when Asian partners (at that time Japan in the 1980's) followed unfair trade practices to the detriment of American workers and industry. The US Trade Representative who acted for Reagan was Lighthizer, the same USTR who worked for DJT in the first term to fight the unfair trading practices of China, and whose deputy USTR Jamieson is now the USTR in DJT second term negotiating with Asian partners. Tariffs ae being used as an additional tookl in the toolbox by DJT and Lighthizer/Jamieson to counter the unfair trading practices of other nations, which includes partners of the US such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and EU. It also includes nations such as Switzerland who ignored US interests in trade whie having open access to the US market. Most of these nations know that these practices harmful to world trade exist, only Canada, China and some other countries have pretended they do not exist and they are the so called "champions of free trade." These nations attempt to make DJT appear to be doing this on whim when this is an issue in trade relations between the US and Asian partners, the EU, and Canada/Mexico for the last 50 years. DJT pointed this out- “The sole purpose of this FRAUD was Canada’s hope that the United States Supreme Court will come to their “rescue” on Tariffs that they have used for years to hurt the United States,” Mr. Trump said in a social media post Saturday afternoon. “Because of their serious misrepresentation of the facts, and hostile act, I am increasing the Tariff on Canada by 10% over and above what they are paying now. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” ...